我国居民收入分配对经常项目顺差影响的统计研究
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摘要
作为新兴国家的主要代表,我国外部经济的主要表现形式是国际收支失衡。经常项目长期顺差是国际收支失衡的重要体现,长达近二十年的经常项目顺差,使我国外部经济不平衡已经达到前所未有的程度,同时,我国经济内部也不断暴露出一些矛盾。为此有必要正确认识并深入理解开放经济下宏观经济内外部均衡的一般规律,深入探讨我国内外经济均衡状况,从中寻找协调内外失衡的方法和途径,从我国内部经济的角度探讨发展外部均衡的根源。
经济学各流派从不同的角度对经常项目顺差的来源和调节机制展开讨论。但很少有人将国内收入分配与我国经常项目的持续顺差联系起来进行深入研究,事实上,收入分配差距正是导致我国内部经济失衡的重要原因之一,现行经济运行中存在的结构性问题,如投资、净出口拉动的增长模式,很大程度上是由于收入分配关系未理顺造成的。本文正是在总结国内外研究成果的基础上,从收入分配的角度探究我国经常项目持续顺差的原因,在此基础上对改善我国经常项目顺差状况提出相关政策建议。
本文在总结国内外研究成果的基础上,从居民收入分配的角度探究我国经常项目持续顺差的深层根源,研究了国内宏观经济变量对经常项目顺差的影响,建立了国内收入分配等相关宏观经济变量与经常项目差额影响的分析框架,说明了国内宏观经济影响经常项目差额的作用机制,从而为后面构建开放经济条件下的可计算一般均衡模型,模拟我国国内居民收入分配相关变量对经常项目差额的影响程度奠定理论基础。
本文通过建立居民收入分配相关变量影响我国经常项目差额的多变量向量自回归模型,同时采用协整检验分析变量之间的长期稳定关系,结果表明,居民可支配收入与经常项目差额之间存在着长期稳定的关系。从协整检验方程系数来看,经常项目差额与居民可支配收入呈负相关效应,居民可支配收入对经常项目顺差起到很好的缓解作用。
通过构建可计算一般均衡模型,本文模拟分析了我国居民收入分配相关因素对经常项目差额的影响,同样可以得到上述结论。并且模拟结果显示,降低间接税率、个人所得税率、增加政府转移支付是提高居民可支配收入的根本途径,也是缓解经常项目顺差的有效手段。根据模拟结果来看,上述三种影响因素对经常项目差额的影响程度不同,其中间接税率的减小对经常项目顺差缓解作用程度最大,平均个人所得税率次之,影响最小的是政府对居民部门的转移支付。同时,三种因素变化对经常项目差额冲击的幅度不同。与平均个人所得税率和政府转移支付有所不同的是,间接税率的减小对经常项目差额的冲击是非线性的。
As the main representative of the emerging countries, the main manifestations of China's external economic is the imbalance of international payments. The current long-term surplus is an important manifestation of the imbalance of international payments, Nearly two decades of current account surplus, China's external economic imbalances have reached unprecedented levels, while China's economic internal constantly exposed some contradictions. It is necessary to understand the general law between open economy macroeconomic internal and external, Explore the domestic and international economic imbalances in depth,and find ways and means of coordinating internal and external imbalances, From China's internal economic point of view to explore the root causes of the external balance.
The source of the current account surplus and the adjustment mechanism to discuss the economics of each genre from different angles. But few people connectit the domestic income distribution and China's current account surplus.In fact, The income gap is important reason for China's internal economic imbalances, there are Structural problems exists in the current economic, such as investment, net export-led growth model, largely due to rationalize the distribution of incomes is not. This article is on the basis of summing up the research results at home and abroad, from the perspective of income distribution to explore China's current account continued surplus of reason on the basis of the relevant policy recommendations to improve the situation of China's current account surplus.
This article is mainly based on domestic income distribution point of view to analyze the current account surplus. From the perspective of income distribution on the basis of summing up the research results at domestic and abroad to explore the root causes of China's current account continued surplus, Established the analytical framework of the domestic income distribution and other macroeconomic variables affect the current account balance, explain mechanism of action of the domestic macroeconomic impact of the current account surplus, provide new ideas of simulation of China's domestic income distribution-related variables on the degree of influence of the current account.
Through the establishment of the relevant variables of the income distribution of China's current account balance variable VAR model, using co-integration test results show that the disposable income of residents and the current account balance has a long and stable relationship. From the cointegration equation coefficients, the current account balance with the residents of disposable income was a negative correlation effect, the residents'disposable income to play a good role in mitigation of the current account surplus.
By constructing a computable general equilibrium model, the simulation analysis of the Income Distribution-related factors affect the current account balance, the above conclusion can also be obtained. And simulation results show that lower indirect tax rates, personal income tax rate, increase in government transfer payments is the fundamental way to improve residents' disposable income, but also an effective means to alleviate the current account surplus. According to the simulation results, the extent of the impact of these three factors on the current account balance, which ease the role of the degree of indirect tax rates decrease, the average personal income tax rate, followed by the minimal impact of government transfer payments. At the same time, three factors change the magnitude of the current account balance impact. Differ from the average individual income tax rate and the government transfer payment, the impact of indirect tax rates on the current account balance is non-linear.
经济学各流派从不同的角度对经常项目顺差的来源和调节机制展开讨论。但很少有人将国内收入分配与我国经常项目的持续顺差联系起来进行深入研究,事实上,收入分配差距正是导致我国内部经济失衡的重要原因之一,现行经济运行中存在的结构性问题,如投资、净出口拉动的增长模式,很大程度上是由于收入分配关系未理顺造成的。本文正是在总结国内外研究成果的基础上,从收入分配的角度探究我国经常项目持续顺差的原因,在此基础上对改善我国经常项目顺差状况提出相关政策建议。
本文在总结国内外研究成果的基础上,从居民收入分配的角度探究我国经常项目持续顺差的深层根源,研究了国内宏观经济变量对经常项目顺差的影响,建立了国内收入分配等相关宏观经济变量与经常项目差额影响的分析框架,说明了国内宏观经济影响经常项目差额的作用机制,从而为后面构建开放经济条件下的可计算一般均衡模型,模拟我国国内居民收入分配相关变量对经常项目差额的影响程度奠定理论基础。
本文通过建立居民收入分配相关变量影响我国经常项目差额的多变量向量自回归模型,同时采用协整检验分析变量之间的长期稳定关系,结果表明,居民可支配收入与经常项目差额之间存在着长期稳定的关系。从协整检验方程系数来看,经常项目差额与居民可支配收入呈负相关效应,居民可支配收入对经常项目顺差起到很好的缓解作用。
通过构建可计算一般均衡模型,本文模拟分析了我国居民收入分配相关因素对经常项目差额的影响,同样可以得到上述结论。并且模拟结果显示,降低间接税率、个人所得税率、增加政府转移支付是提高居民可支配收入的根本途径,也是缓解经常项目顺差的有效手段。根据模拟结果来看,上述三种影响因素对经常项目差额的影响程度不同,其中间接税率的减小对经常项目顺差缓解作用程度最大,平均个人所得税率次之,影响最小的是政府对居民部门的转移支付。同时,三种因素变化对经常项目差额冲击的幅度不同。与平均个人所得税率和政府转移支付有所不同的是,间接税率的减小对经常项目差额的冲击是非线性的。
As the main representative of the emerging countries, the main manifestations of China's external economic is the imbalance of international payments. The current long-term surplus is an important manifestation of the imbalance of international payments, Nearly two decades of current account surplus, China's external economic imbalances have reached unprecedented levels, while China's economic internal constantly exposed some contradictions. It is necessary to understand the general law between open economy macroeconomic internal and external, Explore the domestic and international economic imbalances in depth,and find ways and means of coordinating internal and external imbalances, From China's internal economic point of view to explore the root causes of the external balance.
The source of the current account surplus and the adjustment mechanism to discuss the economics of each genre from different angles. But few people connectit the domestic income distribution and China's current account surplus.In fact, The income gap is important reason for China's internal economic imbalances, there are Structural problems exists in the current economic, such as investment, net export-led growth model, largely due to rationalize the distribution of incomes is not. This article is on the basis of summing up the research results at home and abroad, from the perspective of income distribution to explore China's current account continued surplus of reason on the basis of the relevant policy recommendations to improve the situation of China's current account surplus.
This article is mainly based on domestic income distribution point of view to analyze the current account surplus. From the perspective of income distribution on the basis of summing up the research results at domestic and abroad to explore the root causes of China's current account continued surplus, Established the analytical framework of the domestic income distribution and other macroeconomic variables affect the current account balance, explain mechanism of action of the domestic macroeconomic impact of the current account surplus, provide new ideas of simulation of China's domestic income distribution-related variables on the degree of influence of the current account.
Through the establishment of the relevant variables of the income distribution of China's current account balance variable VAR model, using co-integration test results show that the disposable income of residents and the current account balance has a long and stable relationship. From the cointegration equation coefficients, the current account balance with the residents of disposable income was a negative correlation effect, the residents'disposable income to play a good role in mitigation of the current account surplus.
By constructing a computable general equilibrium model, the simulation analysis of the Income Distribution-related factors affect the current account balance, the above conclusion can also be obtained. And simulation results show that lower indirect tax rates, personal income tax rate, increase in government transfer payments is the fundamental way to improve residents' disposable income, but also an effective means to alleviate the current account surplus. According to the simulation results, the extent of the impact of these three factors on the current account balance, which ease the role of the degree of indirect tax rates decrease, the average personal income tax rate, followed by the minimal impact of government transfer payments. At the same time, three factors change the magnitude of the current account balance impact. Differ from the average individual income tax rate and the government transfer payment, the impact of indirect tax rates on the current account balance is non-linear.
引文
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