汇率变动对韩中两国贸易的影响分析
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摘要
这项研究的主要目的是探讨汇率变化对韩中两国双边贸易的影响。虽然人民币汇率制度在很长一段时间都是紧盯美元的,但它对韩元一直是波动的,这为我们提供了一个自然实验去测试汇率制度的影响。本文分析的是人民币和韩元之间的汇率是否对两国的双边贸易有重大的影响以及这种影响的程度。
中国目前是韩国最大的贸易伙伴,韩国是中国的第四大贸易伙伴。最近韩国的经济增长部分原因是由于对中国的出口增加,这使我们相信,中国的经济增长将是韩国经济增长一个重要的外部因素。此后两国之间就会变得互相更加依赖。
为了评估中国人民币升值可能造成的影响,本文应用出口函数对韩中两国从1999年第一季度到2007年第四季度中这一段时期的每个季度的工业贸易数据(按标准国际贸易分类的3类水平)进行回归分析
本文的研究结果表明了实际上的汇率变化对韩中两国之间的贸易量影响不大。对于韩国对中国的出口量来说,只影响77个行业中的13个行业,对于中国对韩国的出口量来说,只影响109个行业中的17个行业。此外我们还发现,经济增长对韩中两国之间的双边贸易的贡献远远高于过去十年的其他变量。
The purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of exchange rate on bilateral trade between Korea and China. Although the RMB yuan was fixed against the US dollar for several years, it has been fluctuating against the Korean won, which provides us with a natural experiment to test the exchange rate effect. This paper analyzed whether and to what extent the exchange rate between the RMB yuan and Korea won has significant impacts on bilateral trade between two countries.
China is currently Korea's biggest trading partner and Korea is China's fourth biggest trading partner. Korea's recent economic growth has been partly due to increased exports to China, leading us to believe that China's the economic growth will be an important exogenous factor in Korea's growth. Both nations'reliance on each other has become more significant ever since.
In order to assess the possible effects of appreciation of Chinese RMB yuan, the export function has been employed to conduct regression analysis. The quarterly trade data of industries (SITC 3 digit level) between the two countries for the period from the first quarter 1999 to the last quarter 2007 of China and Korea have been analyzed.
Findings in this paper imply that real exchange rate changes have little influence on trade volume between Korea and China; impacts on the export volume of Korea to China in 13 out of 77 industries; impacts on the export volume of China to Korea in 16 out of 109 industries. Also, it is found that economic growth has contributed for bilateral trade between Korea and China much more than other variables for the last decade.
中国目前是韩国最大的贸易伙伴,韩国是中国的第四大贸易伙伴。最近韩国的经济增长部分原因是由于对中国的出口增加,这使我们相信,中国的经济增长将是韩国经济增长一个重要的外部因素。此后两国之间就会变得互相更加依赖。
为了评估中国人民币升值可能造成的影响,本文应用出口函数对韩中两国从1999年第一季度到2007年第四季度中这一段时期的每个季度的工业贸易数据(按标准国际贸易分类的3类水平)进行回归分析
本文的研究结果表明了实际上的汇率变化对韩中两国之间的贸易量影响不大。对于韩国对中国的出口量来说,只影响77个行业中的13个行业,对于中国对韩国的出口量来说,只影响109个行业中的17个行业。此外我们还发现,经济增长对韩中两国之间的双边贸易的贡献远远高于过去十年的其他变量。
The purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of exchange rate on bilateral trade between Korea and China. Although the RMB yuan was fixed against the US dollar for several years, it has been fluctuating against the Korean won, which provides us with a natural experiment to test the exchange rate effect. This paper analyzed whether and to what extent the exchange rate between the RMB yuan and Korea won has significant impacts on bilateral trade between two countries.
China is currently Korea's biggest trading partner and Korea is China's fourth biggest trading partner. Korea's recent economic growth has been partly due to increased exports to China, leading us to believe that China's the economic growth will be an important exogenous factor in Korea's growth. Both nations'reliance on each other has become more significant ever since.
In order to assess the possible effects of appreciation of Chinese RMB yuan, the export function has been employed to conduct regression analysis. The quarterly trade data of industries (SITC 3 digit level) between the two countries for the period from the first quarter 1999 to the last quarter 2007 of China and Korea have been analyzed.
Findings in this paper imply that real exchange rate changes have little influence on trade volume between Korea and China; impacts on the export volume of Korea to China in 13 out of 77 industries; impacts on the export volume of China to Korea in 16 out of 109 industries. Also, it is found that economic growth has contributed for bilateral trade between Korea and China much more than other variables for the last decade.
引文
Alicia, Garcia-Herrero and Tuuli Koivu.2009. China's exchange rate policy and Asia trade, BIS working papers, No 282.
Baak, SaangJoon.2008. The bilateral real exchange rates and trade between China and the U.S, China Economic Review, pp.117-127
Bamani-Oskooee, Mohsen and Wang Yongqing.2007. The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the U.S. and China, Economic Issues Vol.12. Part 1.
Das, Dilip. The Chinese Economic Renaissance and Its Currency Donundrm, The Chinese Economic Renaissance:Apocalypse or Cornucopia? Ch.5.
Ding, Lu.2004. China's Capability to Control its Exchange Rate, China Economic Revew 15 343-347.
Fang, Gang. Renminbi Revaluation and US Dollar Depreciation, Comment on Debating China's Exchange Rate Policy, Ch.1.
Frankel, Jeffrey.2005. On the Renminbi:The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate, NBER Working Paper No.1127.
Gaulier, Guillaume, Lemoine Francise and Unal-Kesenci Deniz.2007. China's emergence and the reorganization of trade flows in Asia, China Economic Review, pp:209-243.
Hale, David and Hale Lyric Hughes.2008. Reconsidering Revaluation-The Wrong Approach to the U.S.-Chinese Trade Imbalance, Foreign Affairs.
Iwatsubo, Kentaro and Karikomi Shunji.2006. China's Reform on Exchange Rate System and International Trade between Japan and China, PRI Discussion Paper Series No.06A-20.
Kim. Joon-Kyung, Kim Yangseon and Lee Chung.2006. Trade, Investment and Economic Interdependence between Korea and China, Asian Economic Journal, Vol.20 No.4,379-392
Lee, Jung-Yong.2009. Changes in Trade between Korean and China since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, Inha University.
Li, Yong.2003. Impact of FDI on Trade:Evidence from China's Bilateral Trade, Journal of the Academy of Business and Economics.
Lim, Young-Mo.2008. Changes in Korea-Chinese Trade Structure and Their Implications, Samsung Economic Research Institute.
Morris, Glodstein and Nicholas Lardy. China's Exchange Rate Policy:an Overview of Some Key Issues, Debating China's Exchange Rate Policy, Ch.1.
[Expectation of Chinese RMB yuan and its Influence on Korea's industry and Countermeasure], The Graduate School of Gongju University.
Takatoshi, Ito.2007. The Influence of the RMB on Exchange Rate Policy in Other Economies, University of Tokyo.
Yin, Xingmin.2008. Walking across Two Worlds:Reconsideration of China's Dynamics in Trade Growth, Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Vol.1, No.4.
Abrupt Chinese RMB yuan Appreciation on Korea's Economy], Korea Industrial Bank Economy Research Center.
Baak, SaangJoon.2008. The bilateral real exchange rates and trade between China and the U.S, China Economic Review, pp.117-127
Bamani-Oskooee, Mohsen and Wang Yongqing.2007. The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the U.S. and China, Economic Issues Vol.12. Part 1.
Das, Dilip. The Chinese Economic Renaissance and Its Currency Donundrm, The Chinese Economic Renaissance:Apocalypse or Cornucopia? Ch.5.
Ding, Lu.2004. China's Capability to Control its Exchange Rate, China Economic Revew 15 343-347.
Fang, Gang. Renminbi Revaluation and US Dollar Depreciation, Comment on Debating China's Exchange Rate Policy, Ch.1.
Frankel, Jeffrey.2005. On the Renminbi:The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate, NBER Working Paper No.1127.
Gaulier, Guillaume, Lemoine Francise and Unal-Kesenci Deniz.2007. China's emergence and the reorganization of trade flows in Asia, China Economic Review, pp:209-243.
Hale, David and Hale Lyric Hughes.2008. Reconsidering Revaluation-The Wrong Approach to the U.S.-Chinese Trade Imbalance, Foreign Affairs.
Iwatsubo, Kentaro and Karikomi Shunji.2006. China's Reform on Exchange Rate System and International Trade between Japan and China, PRI Discussion Paper Series No.06A-20.
Kim. Joon-Kyung, Kim Yangseon and Lee Chung.2006. Trade, Investment and Economic Interdependence between Korea and China, Asian Economic Journal, Vol.20 No.4,379-392
Lee, Jung-Yong.2009. Changes in Trade between Korean and China since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, Inha University.
Li, Yong.2003. Impact of FDI on Trade:Evidence from China's Bilateral Trade, Journal of the Academy of Business and Economics.
Lim, Young-Mo.2008. Changes in Korea-Chinese Trade Structure and Their Implications, Samsung Economic Research Institute.
Morris, Glodstein and Nicholas Lardy. China's Exchange Rate Policy:an Overview of Some Key Issues, Debating China's Exchange Rate Policy, Ch.1.
[Expectation of Chinese RMB yuan and its Influence on Korea's industry and Countermeasure], The Graduate School of Gongju University.
Takatoshi, Ito.2007. The Influence of the RMB on Exchange Rate Policy in Other Economies, University of Tokyo.
Yin, Xingmin.2008. Walking across Two Worlds:Reconsideration of China's Dynamics in Trade Growth, Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Vol.1, No.4.
Abrupt Chinese RMB yuan Appreciation on Korea's Economy], Korea Industrial Bank Economy Research Center.