中国商业银行业绩效研究
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摘要
中国金融资产中银行业资产占有绝对份额,银行业改革是金融业改革的一个重要方面。关于中国商业银行业改革,理论界存在“侧重点”之争。有的学者认为中国商业银行业改革的侧重点应在于市场结构的继续调整,放宽民营资本进入银行市场的限制；而有的学者认为中国商业银行业的主要问题在于国有银行效率低下,资产风险集中,改革的侧重点应放在国有银行的产权制度改造上。
正是有鉴于此,本文将银行绩效的决定因素作为研究和讨论的一个中心,对中国商业银行业市场、产权两者结构的现状进行了分析。同时,运用回归分析法对市场结构与银行绩效、产权结构与银行绩效的关系进行了研究。市场结构方面研究结果：市场份额、外资银行存款份额与银行绩效均呈现显著的负相关关系。通过加入市场份额等变量前后比较,总体上看,市场集中度与银行绩效呈现显著的负相关关系,从而拒绝了哈佛学派的市场力假说。产权结构方面研究结果：对四大国有银行和八家全国性股份制银行的回归研究结果表明,最大股东持股比例F1、股权集中度F4和国有股权份额State与银行绩效呈现显著的负相关关系；而单独分析八家全国性股份制银行的回归研究结果却恰恰相反,即呈现出显著的正相关关系。而境外战略投资者持股比例W与银行绩效的正相关关系不显著。上市银行董事会规模BS与不良贷款率BLR呈现显著的负相关关系,外部董事比例BC与资本充足率CAR呈现显著的负相关关系。说明在风险管理方面,董事会起到了很好的作用,但是外部董事在一定程度上对内部董事产生了挤出效应,并没有发挥应有的作用。BC与存贷比率LD显著正相关,说明独立董事确实具有识别和控制银行内部流动性风险的监督作用。监事会规模JS对银行的盈利性、安全性、流动性都没有起到显著的积极作用。
最后根据实证分析提出相应的政策建议。本文提出取消行政性壁垒,加强行业内竞争,优化银行市场结构；加快技术创新脚步,注重人才培养,应对外资银行进入；股权集中度要保持在一定“度”的范围内；合理引进战略投资者；构建合理有效的公司治理结构,进一步加强董事会的风险管理能力,并强化监事会对董事会和管理层的监督管理能力等政策建议。
China banking industry assets have an absolute share of financial assets of China, so banking reform is an important part of financial industry reform. With regard to the reform of China commercial banking industry, there is a argue about the "focus".Some scholars believe that the reform should emphasize the continual adjustment of the market structure,and relax the constraints of private capital;while some scholars believe that the main problems are:inefficiency of state-owned banks, concentration of asset risk. The focus should be on the reform of property rights of state-owned banks.
With these facts, this thesis will make the bank performance as a center for study and discussion, analysize the status of China commercial banking industry market structure and property rights structure, and separately do the regression analyses:the relationship between the above two and the bank performance.The result of the regression analysis about market structure and bank performance:the market share, the deposit share of foreign bank and bank performance showed a significant negative correlation. By adding variables such as market share, before and after, market concentration and bank performance showed a negative correlation, which rejected the market power hypothesis of the Harvard School.The result of the regression analysis about property rights structure and bank performance:the four major state-owned banks and eight national joint-stock commercial banks studies have shown that the correlation between the shareholding ratio of the largest shareholder F1,the ownership concentration F4,the share of state-owned shares State and the bank performance showed a significant negative correlation; but there is an opposite result when the object of this research is only the eight national joint-stock banks, that means there is a significant positive correlation. The proportion of foreign strategic investors W and the bank performance showed the positive correlation, but did not pass the T-test. The board scale of listed banks BS and bad loan ratio BLR showed a significant negative correlation, the negative correlation relationship between the proportion of outside board BC and capital adequacy ratio CAR was also significant, indicating that the board has played an active role in risk management, while outside board did not play its role.Outside board, to a certain extent, had a crowding-out effect on inside board. BC and LD(deposit and loan) showed the significant positive correlation, indicating the independent board played the role of identifying and controling the liquidity risk inside. The scale of the board of supervisors JS did not play a significant positive role on bank's profitability, safety, liquidity.
Finally, according to empirical analyses, the author proposes corresponding policy recommendations.This thesis proposes that remove the administrative barriers, strengthen the industry competition, optimize the market structure of bank; in order to cope with the entry of foreign banks, accelerate the pace of technological innovation and pay attention to personnel training, the ownership concentration to maintain a certain"degree"within a reasonable bounds;reasonably introduce the foreign strategic investors; construct a reasonable and effective corporate governance structure, strengthen capabilities of the board's risk management further and strengthen capabilities of the supervisory board in supervising the board and management.
正是有鉴于此,本文将银行绩效的决定因素作为研究和讨论的一个中心,对中国商业银行业市场、产权两者结构的现状进行了分析。同时,运用回归分析法对市场结构与银行绩效、产权结构与银行绩效的关系进行了研究。市场结构方面研究结果：市场份额、外资银行存款份额与银行绩效均呈现显著的负相关关系。通过加入市场份额等变量前后比较,总体上看,市场集中度与银行绩效呈现显著的负相关关系,从而拒绝了哈佛学派的市场力假说。产权结构方面研究结果：对四大国有银行和八家全国性股份制银行的回归研究结果表明,最大股东持股比例F1、股权集中度F4和国有股权份额State与银行绩效呈现显著的负相关关系；而单独分析八家全国性股份制银行的回归研究结果却恰恰相反,即呈现出显著的正相关关系。而境外战略投资者持股比例W与银行绩效的正相关关系不显著。上市银行董事会规模BS与不良贷款率BLR呈现显著的负相关关系,外部董事比例BC与资本充足率CAR呈现显著的负相关关系。说明在风险管理方面,董事会起到了很好的作用,但是外部董事在一定程度上对内部董事产生了挤出效应,并没有发挥应有的作用。BC与存贷比率LD显著正相关,说明独立董事确实具有识别和控制银行内部流动性风险的监督作用。监事会规模JS对银行的盈利性、安全性、流动性都没有起到显著的积极作用。
最后根据实证分析提出相应的政策建议。本文提出取消行政性壁垒,加强行业内竞争,优化银行市场结构；加快技术创新脚步,注重人才培养,应对外资银行进入；股权集中度要保持在一定“度”的范围内；合理引进战略投资者；构建合理有效的公司治理结构,进一步加强董事会的风险管理能力,并强化监事会对董事会和管理层的监督管理能力等政策建议。
China banking industry assets have an absolute share of financial assets of China, so banking reform is an important part of financial industry reform. With regard to the reform of China commercial banking industry, there is a argue about the "focus".Some scholars believe that the reform should emphasize the continual adjustment of the market structure,and relax the constraints of private capital;while some scholars believe that the main problems are:inefficiency of state-owned banks, concentration of asset risk. The focus should be on the reform of property rights of state-owned banks.
With these facts, this thesis will make the bank performance as a center for study and discussion, analysize the status of China commercial banking industry market structure and property rights structure, and separately do the regression analyses:the relationship between the above two and the bank performance.The result of the regression analysis about market structure and bank performance:the market share, the deposit share of foreign bank and bank performance showed a significant negative correlation. By adding variables such as market share, before and after, market concentration and bank performance showed a negative correlation, which rejected the market power hypothesis of the Harvard School.The result of the regression analysis about property rights structure and bank performance:the four major state-owned banks and eight national joint-stock commercial banks studies have shown that the correlation between the shareholding ratio of the largest shareholder F1,the ownership concentration F4,the share of state-owned shares State and the bank performance showed a significant negative correlation; but there is an opposite result when the object of this research is only the eight national joint-stock banks, that means there is a significant positive correlation. The proportion of foreign strategic investors W and the bank performance showed the positive correlation, but did not pass the T-test. The board scale of listed banks BS and bad loan ratio BLR showed a significant negative correlation, the negative correlation relationship between the proportion of outside board BC and capital adequacy ratio CAR was also significant, indicating that the board has played an active role in risk management, while outside board did not play its role.Outside board, to a certain extent, had a crowding-out effect on inside board. BC and LD(deposit and loan) showed the significant positive correlation, indicating the independent board played the role of identifying and controling the liquidity risk inside. The scale of the board of supervisors JS did not play a significant positive role on bank's profitability, safety, liquidity.
Finally, according to empirical analyses, the author proposes corresponding policy recommendations.This thesis proposes that remove the administrative barriers, strengthen the industry competition, optimize the market structure of bank; in order to cope with the entry of foreign banks, accelerate the pace of technological innovation and pay attention to personnel training, the ownership concentration to maintain a certain"degree"within a reasonable bounds;reasonably introduce the foreign strategic investors; construct a reasonable and effective corporate governance structure, strengthen capabilities of the board's risk management further and strengthen capabilities of the supervisory board in supervising the board and management.
引文
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①马广奇.产业经济学在西方的发展及其在我国的构建.外国经济与管理,2000,10,8-15.
①资料来源：厦大慰.产业组织学.上海,复旦大学出版社,1994,31.
②资料来源：日本公正交易委员会编.日本的产业集中,1980
①史小宁.产权理论的演变：一个文献述评.经济研究导刊,2007,7,7-9.
①徐滇庆,金融改革路在何方：民营银行200问,北京,北京大学出版社,2002.87.
②La Porta,Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes,etal.Government Ownership of Banks. The Tournal of Finance,2002,57,265-301.
③郭妍,我国商业银行效率决定因素的理论探讨与实证检验.金融研究.2005,2.115-123.
④刘伟,黄桂田,中国银行业的侧重点：产权结构还是市场结构.经济研究.2002.8.3-11
⑤徐蕾,郎咸平,银行改革太早了.商务周刊,2004,4,32-37.
⑥黄宪,王方宏,中国与德国的国有银行效率差异及其分析.世界经济,2003,3,71-78.
①资料来源：中国银行业监督管理委员会2008年年报
②周明,王占军.中资银行引进战略投资者考量.经济导刊,2005,12,45-52.
①杨德勇,曹永霞.中国上市银行股权结构与绩效的实证研究.金融研究,2007,5,87-97.
②萧松华,刘明月.银行产权结构与效率关系的理论评析[J].金融研究,2007,5,87-97.
③资料来源：由本节样本数据通过Eviews软件计算所得
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[2]Berger,A. N.. The Profit-structure Relationship in Banking-tests of Market-power and Efficient Structure Hypotheses.Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,27,404-431.
[3]于良春,鞠源.垄断与竞争：中国银行业的改革和发展.经济研究,1999,8,48-57.
[4]贺春临.我国银行业的市场结构与绩效研究.经济评论,2004,6,96-102.
[5]周孟亮.产权激励,市场竞争与超产权论—我国国有银行改革的演进逻辑和展望分析.华东经济管理,2008,7,79-82.
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[7]刘伟,黄桂田.中国银行业改革的侧重点：产权结构还是市场结构.经济研究,2002,8,3-11.
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