中国储蓄与投资相关性研究
|
摘要
资本形成和资本积累对一国经济的发展起着至关重要的作用,资本形成的总额依赖于一国储蓄的水平、储蓄的规模以及储蓄向投资转化的效率。目前,我国仍处于工业化的阶段,需要保持一定的储蓄率并不断地转化为投资,投入到经济建设中去。对我国的储蓄、投资以及二者之间的相互关系进行分析,有利于发现存在的问题,以进一步调整储蓄和投资的规模和结构,促进我国经济又好又快的发展。
根据新古典经济学的相关理论,储蓄是恒等于投资的,但是现实状况并非如此。一国的利率、交易成本、税收以及信息的不完全与不对称等许多因素都会影响到储蓄和投资的平衡。本文通过对我国储蓄投资相关性的实证研究发现相比于世界其他国家,尤其是发达国家,我国储蓄和投资的相关程度偏低。
本文首先对储蓄和投资的概念进行界定,分别使用广义的储蓄和实物投资对我国储蓄和投资的相互关系进行分析,并回顾了对储蓄和投资的理论研究。然后,本文对现有的各种研究储蓄投资相互关系的模型进行了分析,并选取了合适的模型,利用我国1980年至2008年之间储蓄和投资的时间序列数据,对我国储蓄和投资的相关性进行实证分析,得出了二者之间稳定的长期均衡关系和相对较小的相关系数。
通过深入分析本文发现,产生储蓄和投资的相关程度偏低这一现象的首要原因并不是因为我国储蓄不足导致投资来源不足,而恰恰是因为我国储蓄过多,储蓄率偏高,消费率偏低,消费的不足抑制了投资的增长,才导致了储蓄和投资之间的相关性降低；其次是我国储蓄向投资转化的路径不畅,转化效率不高,降低了储蓄和投资之间的相关性；而且近些年来我国不断提高的资本流动性,对二者的相关性也产生了一定的影响。
最后,针对分析出的原因,本文提出了通过缩小贫富差距,改革住房、医疗等消费难点,完善股息分配政策等政策措施来降低国民储蓄率,提高消费率；通过发展民营银行,改革利率形成机制,大力发展证券市场等手段提高储蓄向投资转化的效率
Capital formation and capital accumulation are very important to the economic development. Capital accumulation depends on the saving rate and the transformation efficiency from saving to investment of the country. Our country is on the stage of industrialization, we need a lot of investment to develop our economy. It is necessary to research the correlation between saving and investment and find out the problems between them.
According to the theory of neo-classicalism, the saving should be identical to the investment. However, they are not equal in the real world. The interest, tax, cost of trade and others factors affect the balance of the deposits and the investment of one country. This text analyzes the correlation between saving and investment of our country, the result shows the coefficient of our country is lower than other countries, especially the OECD countries. The main part of the text is trying to explain the result, and putting forward some related solution.
The text defines the concept of saving and investment and introduces the factors which will affect them. Using the method of time series analysis, the author takes a positive analysis using the data of saving and investment of 1980-2008, and makes a conclusion of long-term and related coefficient between them. After this, this text also analyzes the dynamic relations of them.
The rest part of the text explains the result of the analysis. There are three reasons for the low coefficient, the international capital mobility, the high saving rate and the low efficiency of transformation. And the text also raises some relative policies. First, reduce the gap between the rich and the poor, improve the social security system and use other policies to reduce the saving rate and raise the consumption rate. Second, develop the private banks and capital market to increase the transformation efficient.
根据新古典经济学的相关理论,储蓄是恒等于投资的,但是现实状况并非如此。一国的利率、交易成本、税收以及信息的不完全与不对称等许多因素都会影响到储蓄和投资的平衡。本文通过对我国储蓄投资相关性的实证研究发现相比于世界其他国家,尤其是发达国家,我国储蓄和投资的相关程度偏低。
本文首先对储蓄和投资的概念进行界定,分别使用广义的储蓄和实物投资对我国储蓄和投资的相互关系进行分析,并回顾了对储蓄和投资的理论研究。然后,本文对现有的各种研究储蓄投资相互关系的模型进行了分析,并选取了合适的模型,利用我国1980年至2008年之间储蓄和投资的时间序列数据,对我国储蓄和投资的相关性进行实证分析,得出了二者之间稳定的长期均衡关系和相对较小的相关系数。
通过深入分析本文发现,产生储蓄和投资的相关程度偏低这一现象的首要原因并不是因为我国储蓄不足导致投资来源不足,而恰恰是因为我国储蓄过多,储蓄率偏高,消费率偏低,消费的不足抑制了投资的增长,才导致了储蓄和投资之间的相关性降低；其次是我国储蓄向投资转化的路径不畅,转化效率不高,降低了储蓄和投资之间的相关性；而且近些年来我国不断提高的资本流动性,对二者的相关性也产生了一定的影响。
最后,针对分析出的原因,本文提出了通过缩小贫富差距,改革住房、医疗等消费难点,完善股息分配政策等政策措施来降低国民储蓄率,提高消费率；通过发展民营银行,改革利率形成机制,大力发展证券市场等手段提高储蓄向投资转化的效率
Capital formation and capital accumulation are very important to the economic development. Capital accumulation depends on the saving rate and the transformation efficiency from saving to investment of the country. Our country is on the stage of industrialization, we need a lot of investment to develop our economy. It is necessary to research the correlation between saving and investment and find out the problems between them.
According to the theory of neo-classicalism, the saving should be identical to the investment. However, they are not equal in the real world. The interest, tax, cost of trade and others factors affect the balance of the deposits and the investment of one country. This text analyzes the correlation between saving and investment of our country, the result shows the coefficient of our country is lower than other countries, especially the OECD countries. The main part of the text is trying to explain the result, and putting forward some related solution.
The text defines the concept of saving and investment and introduces the factors which will affect them. Using the method of time series analysis, the author takes a positive analysis using the data of saving and investment of 1980-2008, and makes a conclusion of long-term and related coefficient between them. After this, this text also analyzes the dynamic relations of them.
The rest part of the text explains the result of the analysis. There are three reasons for the low coefficient, the international capital mobility, the high saving rate and the low efficiency of transformation. And the text also raises some relative policies. First, reduce the gap between the rich and the poor, improve the social security system and use other policies to reduce the saving rate and raise the consumption rate. Second, develop the private banks and capital market to increase the transformation efficient.
引文
[1]曼昆(著),梁小民(译).经济学原理[M],机械工业出版社,2003.
[2]高鸿业,西方经济学(宏观部分)[M],中国国人民大学出版社,2001。
[3]龚六堂,高级宏观经济学[M],武汉大学出版社,2005.
[4]于同申,发展经济学——新世纪经济发展的理论与政策[M],中国人民大学出版社,2002.
[5]李子奈,潘文卿,计量经济学[M],高等教育出版社,2005.
[6]吴少新,储蓄转化投资的金融机制分析[M],中国经济出版社,1998.
[7]樊刚,金融发展与企业改革[M],经济科学出版社,2000.
[8]李学研,中国经济发展过程中的储蓄过剩问题研究[M],经济科学出版社,2008.
[9]张明,中国的高储蓄——特征事实与部门分析[M],中国金融出版社,2008.
[10]应展宇,储蓄投资转化中的资本市场[M],中国人民大学出版社,2004.
[11]李来儿,王国定.储蓄——投资转化机制与定量分析[J],经济经纬,2001,(2).
[12]任泽平,陈宏,凯恩斯乘数模型与投入产出乘数模型的比较研究[J],兰州学刊,2006,(5).
[13]吴少新,市场金融主导型储蓄投资转化机制论[J],改革论坛,1996,(12).
[14]李福学,范德胜、李泽春,经济转轨时期中国储蓄的实证分析[J],经济学动态,2004,(12).
[15]殷成东、贺向明,储蓄增长和外资流入的金融谜团[J],西南金融,2003,(8).
[16]孙莉,发展资本市场,提高储蓄——投资转化效率[J],山东经济,2000,(1).
[17]袁志刚,宋铮,人口年龄结构、养老保险制度和最优储蓄率[J].经济研究,2000,(11).
[18]尹久.论市场主导型储蓄-投资转化机制的建立[J],中央财经大学学报,1997,(11).
[19]章莉,如何发挥储蓄对经济增长的促进作用[J],现代管理科学,2000,(6).
[20]金全,郭整风.我国居民储蓄率与经济增长之间的关系研究[J],中国软科学,2002,(2).
[21]包群,阳小晓,赖明勇.我国储蓄-投资转化率的经验性研究：1978～2002[J],统计研究,2004(9).
[22]何帆,中国三部门储蓄与投资相关性的经验分析[J],财经问题研究,2007(11).
[23]王燕武,薛蕾.我国储蓄投资相关性的实证分析[J],北方经济,2007(2).
[24]刘鸿儒,中国资本市场的战略地位与前景展望[J],西南金融,2007(9).
[25]杨勇华.我国居民储蓄—投资转化效率的实证分析[J],财经理论与实践,2006(3).
[26]谭章禄,徐静.基于动力学的储蓄-投资转化率分析[J],浙江金融,2008(1).
[27]肖红叶,周国富.我国储蓄投资转化有效性研究[J],统计研究,2000(3).
[28]Artis, Michael J. and Tamim Bayoumi, Global Financial Integration and Current Account Imbalances[M]. Cambridge University Press,1991.
[29]Bayoumin, Tamim, Saving-investment correlations:Immobile capital, government policy, or endogenous behavior. IMF Staff Papers, June 1990.
[30]Gurley and Shaw, Money In a Theory of Finance[M],上海人民出版社,2006.
[31]R.Merton and Z.Bodie, The Global Financial System A Functional Perspective. Harvard Business School Press,1995.
[32]Summers Lawrence H., Tax Policy and International Competitiveness, International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, NBER Conference Report, Chicago University Press,1988.
[33]Arat,Kraay. Household Saving in China [J],The World Bank Economic Review,September,2000.
[34]Baxter, Marianne and Mario, Crucini. Explaining Saving-investment Correlations [J]. American Economic Review, June 1993.
[35]Clarida,R.H. Current Account Imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment. Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research.2007.
[36]Dynan,Karen. How Prudent are Consumers[J], Journal of Political Economy, 1993.
[37]Feldstein, M. and Horioka, C. Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows[J]. Economic Journal,1980.
[38]Florian Pelgrin and Sebastian Schich, National Saving-Investment Dynamics and International Capital Mobility, Bank of Canada Working Papers,2004.
[39]JongH. International Review of Financial Analysis[J]. World Development, 2001,(10).
[40]Krugman, The Myth of Asia's Miracle, Foreign Affairs, November No.6,1994.
[41]La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. "Government Ownership of Banks."Journal of Finance[J],2002.
[42]Louis Kuijs,How Will China's Saving-Investment Balance Evolve? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3958, July 2006.
[43]Levy, Daniel,'Investment-saving Comovement Under Endogenous Fiscal Policy,' Open Economies Review, July 1995.
[44]Murphy, Robert G. Capital Mobility and The Relationship Between Saving and Investment rates In OECD Countries[J], Journal of International Money and Finance, December 1984.
[45]Obstfeld, Mauriche. Capital mobility in the world economy:Theory and measurement. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Spring 1986.
[46]SandmoA, The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions[J]. Review of Economic Studies.1970,(3).
[47]Stiglitz.J,andA.Weiss,"Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information"[J]. American Economic Review.1981,(71).
[48]Tobin, Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements In The Long Run and The Short Run, European Economic Review[J],1983,(21).
[49]Wong, David Y., What do saving-investment relationships tell us about capital mobility? [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, March 1990, (9).
①李子奈，潘文卿，《计量经济学》，高等教育出版社，2005年，第225页.
③刘鸿儒,.《中国资本市场的战略地位与前景展望》,西南金融,2007年第9期,第25页.
④参见《中华人民共和国证券法》第五十六条,中国法制出版社,2007年,第23页.
⑤Gurley and Shaw,《Money In a Theory of Finance》上海人民出版社,1994,第128页。
[2]高鸿业,西方经济学(宏观部分)[M],中国国人民大学出版社,2001。
[3]龚六堂,高级宏观经济学[M],武汉大学出版社,2005.
[4]于同申,发展经济学——新世纪经济发展的理论与政策[M],中国人民大学出版社,2002.
[5]李子奈,潘文卿,计量经济学[M],高等教育出版社,2005.
[6]吴少新,储蓄转化投资的金融机制分析[M],中国经济出版社,1998.
[7]樊刚,金融发展与企业改革[M],经济科学出版社,2000.
[8]李学研,中国经济发展过程中的储蓄过剩问题研究[M],经济科学出版社,2008.
[9]张明,中国的高储蓄——特征事实与部门分析[M],中国金融出版社,2008.
[10]应展宇,储蓄投资转化中的资本市场[M],中国人民大学出版社,2004.
[11]李来儿,王国定.储蓄——投资转化机制与定量分析[J],经济经纬,2001,(2).
[12]任泽平,陈宏,凯恩斯乘数模型与投入产出乘数模型的比较研究[J],兰州学刊,2006,(5).
[13]吴少新,市场金融主导型储蓄投资转化机制论[J],改革论坛,1996,(12).
[14]李福学,范德胜、李泽春,经济转轨时期中国储蓄的实证分析[J],经济学动态,2004,(12).
[15]殷成东、贺向明,储蓄增长和外资流入的金融谜团[J],西南金融,2003,(8).
[16]孙莉,发展资本市场,提高储蓄——投资转化效率[J],山东经济,2000,(1).
[17]袁志刚,宋铮,人口年龄结构、养老保险制度和最优储蓄率[J].经济研究,2000,(11).
[18]尹久.论市场主导型储蓄-投资转化机制的建立[J],中央财经大学学报,1997,(11).
[19]章莉,如何发挥储蓄对经济增长的促进作用[J],现代管理科学,2000,(6).
[20]金全,郭整风.我国居民储蓄率与经济增长之间的关系研究[J],中国软科学,2002,(2).
[21]包群,阳小晓,赖明勇.我国储蓄-投资转化率的经验性研究：1978～2002[J],统计研究,2004(9).
[22]何帆,中国三部门储蓄与投资相关性的经验分析[J],财经问题研究,2007(11).
[23]王燕武,薛蕾.我国储蓄投资相关性的实证分析[J],北方经济,2007(2).
[24]刘鸿儒,中国资本市场的战略地位与前景展望[J],西南金融,2007(9).
[25]杨勇华.我国居民储蓄—投资转化效率的实证分析[J],财经理论与实践,2006(3).
[26]谭章禄,徐静.基于动力学的储蓄-投资转化率分析[J],浙江金融,2008(1).
[27]肖红叶,周国富.我国储蓄投资转化有效性研究[J],统计研究,2000(3).
[28]Artis, Michael J. and Tamim Bayoumi, Global Financial Integration and Current Account Imbalances[M]. Cambridge University Press,1991.
[29]Bayoumin, Tamim, Saving-investment correlations:Immobile capital, government policy, or endogenous behavior. IMF Staff Papers, June 1990.
[30]Gurley and Shaw, Money In a Theory of Finance[M],上海人民出版社,2006.
[31]R.Merton and Z.Bodie, The Global Financial System A Functional Perspective. Harvard Business School Press,1995.
[32]Summers Lawrence H., Tax Policy and International Competitiveness, International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, NBER Conference Report, Chicago University Press,1988.
[33]Arat,Kraay. Household Saving in China [J],The World Bank Economic Review,September,2000.
[34]Baxter, Marianne and Mario, Crucini. Explaining Saving-investment Correlations [J]. American Economic Review, June 1993.
[35]Clarida,R.H. Current Account Imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment. Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research.2007.
[36]Dynan,Karen. How Prudent are Consumers[J], Journal of Political Economy, 1993.
[37]Feldstein, M. and Horioka, C. Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows[J]. Economic Journal,1980.
[38]Florian Pelgrin and Sebastian Schich, National Saving-Investment Dynamics and International Capital Mobility, Bank of Canada Working Papers,2004.
[39]JongH. International Review of Financial Analysis[J]. World Development, 2001,(10).
[40]Krugman, The Myth of Asia's Miracle, Foreign Affairs, November No.6,1994.
[41]La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. "Government Ownership of Banks."Journal of Finance[J],2002.
[42]Louis Kuijs,How Will China's Saving-Investment Balance Evolve? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3958, July 2006.
[43]Levy, Daniel,'Investment-saving Comovement Under Endogenous Fiscal Policy,' Open Economies Review, July 1995.
[44]Murphy, Robert G. Capital Mobility and The Relationship Between Saving and Investment rates In OECD Countries[J], Journal of International Money and Finance, December 1984.
[45]Obstfeld, Mauriche. Capital mobility in the world economy:Theory and measurement. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Spring 1986.
[46]SandmoA, The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions[J]. Review of Economic Studies.1970,(3).
[47]Stiglitz.J,andA.Weiss,"Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information"[J]. American Economic Review.1981,(71).
[48]Tobin, Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements In The Long Run and The Short Run, European Economic Review[J],1983,(21).
[49]Wong, David Y., What do saving-investment relationships tell us about capital mobility? [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, March 1990, (9).
①李子奈，潘文卿，《计量经济学》，高等教育出版社，2005年，第225页.
③刘鸿儒,.《中国资本市场的战略地位与前景展望》,西南金融,2007年第9期,第25页.
④参见《中华人民共和国证券法》第五十六条,中国法制出版社,2007年,第23页.
⑤Gurley and Shaw,《Money In a Theory of Finance》上海人民出版社,1994,第128页。