美国对华贸易政策的政治经济分析
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摘要
二百年来,美国和中国相互较量,相互交手,同时也相互合作。在经历了两个世纪的跌宕起伏后两国的关系逐渐演变成国际舞台上影响世界和平与稳定的最重要的双边关系之一。随着中国入世后两国经贸依赖格局的初步形成,两国经贸关系具有了新的内涵。本文深入分析影响美国对华贸易政策的政治和经济因素,内部和外部的制约机制,为把握美国对华贸易政策的战略方向及预测新的发展趋势提供理论依据。
论文在导论部分介绍本文研究的目的、研究对象的界定以及分析框架的构建等,同时确定研究的基本方法。第二章在系统总结公共选择理论在贸易政策领域的具体应用上,确立了融合经济和政治分析一体、整体主义范式-制度主义范式-利益集团三者统一的政策分析框架。第三章专门阐述与美国对华贸易政策相关的行为体(国会、总统及行政部门和利益集团)在整个决策体系中所扮演的角色及权力分配。同时追根溯源,从1979年以来美国对华贸易政策的几个不同阶段的走向进行实证考察与评述,以加深对美国对华贸易决策制度变迁的理解。第四章是本文的重点,在这一部分,首先从美国对华贸易政策的政治因素分析入手,从美国国家战略、外部制度约束、利益集团三个影响因素着手分别进行局部均衡分析;其次通过美国在华经济利益结构的变化、美国经济波动的影响、中美贸易不平衡和中美经济对话机制四个方面进行美国对华贸易政策的经济因素分析。从国家战略这一宏观层面上揭示了美国贸易政策的决定性制约因素,强调美国对华经济利益与非经济利益的权衡与相互影响,揭示了美国对华贸易政策的政治经济特征。
第五章对全文进行了总结,得到以下5个结论:①美国贸易政策决策主体的动态制衡性使美国对华贸易政策具有明显政治经济特征②国家战略是美国对华贸易政策最重要的决定因素之一,它决定贸易政策的基本性质和方向③外部制度是美国对华贸易政策决定过程中的一个重要的约束因素④美国在华经济利益随着中美经贸关系的发展而日益上升⑤在中美贸易逆差中美国可实现其最大的经济和政治利益;在此基础上本文对2009年美国新总统奥巴马上任执政后对华贸易政策未来走势作出预测:①金融危机推动中美贸易关系发展②美中高官协商级别的提升将进一步巩固双边贸易关系。
In the past two hundred years, the United States and China has been stacked up against each other and cooperation with each other as well. After about two centuries’ups and downs, the Sino-US relationship have evolved into one of the most important bilateral ties, which plays an role on the international stages effected the global peace and stability. With the formatting of preparatory pattern of interdependency after China’s accession to the WTO, the bilateral economic and trade relations has taken on a new connotation.
The essay aimed to provide a theoretical evidence to grasp accurately the strategic direction of US trade policies toward China, and predict its policy-making trends by a deep analysis on political and economic factors, as well as internal and external control mechanism, which will effect on American’s trade policies toward China.
The introduction of the essay contained the purpose and significance of the study, the definition of research objectives the construction of analytical framework, while the part also clarified the logic and basic research approaches of the essay.
Based on the summary of political and economic analysis of international trade policy draft processes, Chapter II made a clear picture of the framework of policy analysis which gathered the effects of international relationship, holistic paradigm and institutionalism paradigm and interest groups.
Chapter III devoted to the statement of roles played by these American’s trade policy-related actors (the Congress, the president and administration departments, and interest group) in the entire decision-making system and power distribution among them. Tracing to 1979, the understanding of institutional change of American’s trade policy toward China will be deepened through some empirical investigation and comments on the path marked by several different stages in the American’s trade policy toward China develop progress.
Chapter IV is the emphasis of the essay. In this part, partial equilibrium analysis initialed from dissection of political factors has been separately executed in the sections including the national strategy for the United States, the external system constraints, and the impact of interest groups. Followed is the economic factors analysis of American’s trade policy toward China through four aspects, which are the changes in the structure of economic interests, the effect caused by US economy fluctuations, Sino-US trade imbalance and economic dialogue mechanism between China and the United States. On a macro-level of national strategy, the analysis exposed the decisive constraints of US trade policy, stressed the trade-off and mutual influence between the economic interests and non-economic interests of US policy toward China, and revealed the Political and economic features represented in the US trade policy toward China.
Chapter V summarized the whole essay by given out following five conclusions:①The political and economic characteristics have been obviously incarnated in the US trade policy toward China by the US trade policy decision-making mechanisms and the interaction during the decision-making process;②The national strategy of the United States is the most important factor determined the US trade policy toward China, which dominated the basic properties and leaded the direction of its trade policy.③External regime played an important role in the decision-making process of US trade policy toward China.④The US economic interests have gained an increasingly growth with the development of Sino-US economic and trade relations.⑤The United States could maximize its economic and political interests in the Sino-US trade deficit.
On this basis, the essay forecasted the future behaviors of US trade policy toward China after the new president Obama’s assumption of duty in 2009, that is①Sino-US trade relations will be promoted by the financial crisis;②The bilateral trade relations will be further consolidated by elevation of the senior governors’level.
论文在导论部分介绍本文研究的目的、研究对象的界定以及分析框架的构建等,同时确定研究的基本方法。第二章在系统总结公共选择理论在贸易政策领域的具体应用上,确立了融合经济和政治分析一体、整体主义范式-制度主义范式-利益集团三者统一的政策分析框架。第三章专门阐述与美国对华贸易政策相关的行为体(国会、总统及行政部门和利益集团)在整个决策体系中所扮演的角色及权力分配。同时追根溯源,从1979年以来美国对华贸易政策的几个不同阶段的走向进行实证考察与评述,以加深对美国对华贸易决策制度变迁的理解。第四章是本文的重点,在这一部分,首先从美国对华贸易政策的政治因素分析入手,从美国国家战略、外部制度约束、利益集团三个影响因素着手分别进行局部均衡分析;其次通过美国在华经济利益结构的变化、美国经济波动的影响、中美贸易不平衡和中美经济对话机制四个方面进行美国对华贸易政策的经济因素分析。从国家战略这一宏观层面上揭示了美国贸易政策的决定性制约因素,强调美国对华经济利益与非经济利益的权衡与相互影响,揭示了美国对华贸易政策的政治经济特征。
第五章对全文进行了总结,得到以下5个结论:①美国贸易政策决策主体的动态制衡性使美国对华贸易政策具有明显政治经济特征②国家战略是美国对华贸易政策最重要的决定因素之一,它决定贸易政策的基本性质和方向③外部制度是美国对华贸易政策决定过程中的一个重要的约束因素④美国在华经济利益随着中美经贸关系的发展而日益上升⑤在中美贸易逆差中美国可实现其最大的经济和政治利益;在此基础上本文对2009年美国新总统奥巴马上任执政后对华贸易政策未来走势作出预测:①金融危机推动中美贸易关系发展②美中高官协商级别的提升将进一步巩固双边贸易关系。
In the past two hundred years, the United States and China has been stacked up against each other and cooperation with each other as well. After about two centuries’ups and downs, the Sino-US relationship have evolved into one of the most important bilateral ties, which plays an role on the international stages effected the global peace and stability. With the formatting of preparatory pattern of interdependency after China’s accession to the WTO, the bilateral economic and trade relations has taken on a new connotation.
The essay aimed to provide a theoretical evidence to grasp accurately the strategic direction of US trade policies toward China, and predict its policy-making trends by a deep analysis on political and economic factors, as well as internal and external control mechanism, which will effect on American’s trade policies toward China.
The introduction of the essay contained the purpose and significance of the study, the definition of research objectives the construction of analytical framework, while the part also clarified the logic and basic research approaches of the essay.
Based on the summary of political and economic analysis of international trade policy draft processes, Chapter II made a clear picture of the framework of policy analysis which gathered the effects of international relationship, holistic paradigm and institutionalism paradigm and interest groups.
Chapter III devoted to the statement of roles played by these American’s trade policy-related actors (the Congress, the president and administration departments, and interest group) in the entire decision-making system and power distribution among them. Tracing to 1979, the understanding of institutional change of American’s trade policy toward China will be deepened through some empirical investigation and comments on the path marked by several different stages in the American’s trade policy toward China develop progress.
Chapter IV is the emphasis of the essay. In this part, partial equilibrium analysis initialed from dissection of political factors has been separately executed in the sections including the national strategy for the United States, the external system constraints, and the impact of interest groups. Followed is the economic factors analysis of American’s trade policy toward China through four aspects, which are the changes in the structure of economic interests, the effect caused by US economy fluctuations, Sino-US trade imbalance and economic dialogue mechanism between China and the United States. On a macro-level of national strategy, the analysis exposed the decisive constraints of US trade policy, stressed the trade-off and mutual influence between the economic interests and non-economic interests of US policy toward China, and revealed the Political and economic features represented in the US trade policy toward China.
Chapter V summarized the whole essay by given out following five conclusions:①The political and economic characteristics have been obviously incarnated in the US trade policy toward China by the US trade policy decision-making mechanisms and the interaction during the decision-making process;②The national strategy of the United States is the most important factor determined the US trade policy toward China, which dominated the basic properties and leaded the direction of its trade policy.③External regime played an important role in the decision-making process of US trade policy toward China.④The US economic interests have gained an increasingly growth with the development of Sino-US economic and trade relations.⑤The United States could maximize its economic and political interests in the Sino-US trade deficit.
On this basis, the essay forecasted the future behaviors of US trade policy toward China after the new president Obama’s assumption of duty in 2009, that is①Sino-US trade relations will be promoted by the financial crisis;②The bilateral trade relations will be further consolidated by elevation of the senior governors’level.
引文
3 [美]迈克尔·J·希斯考克斯.国际贸易与政治冲突——贸易、联盟与要素流动程度[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005:11-16。
4注:有关实证和规范的政治经济分析差异,详见盛斌.贸易保护的新政治经济学[J].世界经济,2001(1):25-30。
9参见Hans J. Morgenthau,revised by Kenneth W. Thompson,Politics among Nationns:the struggle for power and peace,Beijing:Peking University Press,2004;Kenneth N.Waltz,Theory of international politics,Reading,Mass.:Addison-Wesley Pub.Co.,1979。
10转引至张继明.美国对华贸易政策的因素分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2007:25-27。
11孙哲,李巍.国会政治与美国对华经贸决策[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2008:10。
16钱其琛.外交十记[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2003:56。
17资料来源:APEC全家福[N].成都商报,2008-11-22(10)。
18周世俭.中美经贸关系五年来的回顾与展望[J].国际贸易,1994(6): 51-52。
19数据整理:中华人民共和国国家统计局http://www.stats.gov.cn/ tjsj/ndsj/。
20王自力.全球金融海啸最后赢家很可能是美国[J].经济杂谈,2009(1):16-17。
21资料来源:世界经济增长[J].世界经济展望,2008(4):26。
22注:指的是GDP从顶部回落到底部企稳、复苏的最短时间。
23资料来源:新华网http://www.xinhuanet.com,2008-11-18。
30王缉思.世纪末的中美关系[M].北京:东方出版社,1999:98。
31孙哲,李巍.国会政治与美国对华经贸决策[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2008:8-21。
34转引至蒯辙元.奥巴马政府对华政策展望[J].亚洲周刊,2008(6):35-37。
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[3] Hong Kong Trade Development Council.2002 Business Alert–EU(May).Information Center:nvestigation Bureau on Industry Damage(IBID)of the State Economic and Trade Commission[EB/OL].www.cacs.gov.cn.
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4注:有关实证和规范的政治经济分析差异,详见盛斌.贸易保护的新政治经济学[J].世界经济,2001(1):25-30。
9参见Hans J. Morgenthau,revised by Kenneth W. Thompson,Politics among Nationns:the struggle for power and peace,Beijing:Peking University Press,2004;Kenneth N.Waltz,Theory of international politics,Reading,Mass.:Addison-Wesley Pub.Co.,1979。
10转引至张继明.美国对华贸易政策的因素分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2007:25-27。
11孙哲,李巍.国会政治与美国对华经贸决策[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2008:10。
16钱其琛.外交十记[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2003:56。
17资料来源:APEC全家福[N].成都商报,2008-11-22(10)。
18周世俭.中美经贸关系五年来的回顾与展望[J].国际贸易,1994(6): 51-52。
19数据整理:中华人民共和国国家统计局http://www.stats.gov.cn/ tjsj/ndsj/。
20王自力.全球金融海啸最后赢家很可能是美国[J].经济杂谈,2009(1):16-17。
21资料来源:世界经济增长[J].世界经济展望,2008(4):26。
22注:指的是GDP从顶部回落到底部企稳、复苏的最短时间。
23资料来源:新华网http://www.xinhuanet.com,2008-11-18。
30王缉思.世纪末的中美关系[M].北京:东方出版社,1999:98。
31孙哲,李巍.国会政治与美国对华经贸决策[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2008:8-21。
34转引至蒯辙元.奥巴马政府对华政策展望[J].亚洲周刊,2008(6):35-37。
[1] Baldwin,R.E..The Political Economy of U.S.Import Policy[M].Cambridge:MIT Press,1985.
[2] Finger,J.M..Antidumping:How it works and who gets hurt[M].University of MichiganPress:Ann Arbor,1993.
[3] Hong Kong Trade Development Council.2002 Business Alert–EU(May).Information Center:nvestigation Bureau on Industry Damage(IBID)of the State Economic and Trade Commission[EB/OL].www.cacs.gov.cn.
[4] Krueger A.O..The Political Economy of American Trade Policy[M], Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,1996.
[5] Zanardi,M..Anti-dumping:What are the Numbers to Discuss at Doha[J].The World Economy,2004,27.
[6] G.M.格罗斯曼,E.赫尔普曼.利益集团与贸易政策[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[7]丁孝文.中美关系中的美国国会因素[J].国际问题研究,2003(5).
[8]郭树永.利益集团与美国外交[J].世界经济研究,1997(5).
[9]郭学堂.美国国会就中国PNTR地位的辩论及其对中美关系的影响[J].国际观察,2002(2).
[10]贾金思,蒋欣.美国贸易政策解析[J].经济学动态,1998(6).
[11]焦方太.美国贸易政策制定体制的特点与借鉴[J].国际经贸探索,2005(2).
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