河南省区域干旱灾害风险评估
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摘要
干旱灾害是河南最主要的自然灾害之一,每年都给城乡居民生活和工农业生产造成不同程度的影响,严重制约我省社会经济的正常运行。因此,干旱灾害的风险分析和评估对各级政府和生产部门及时掌握干旱信息,制定防御和减轻旱灾的措施,实现干旱灾害的应急管理向风险管理转变具有重要意义。
通过对河南干旱和旱灾时空分布进行分析,结果显示河南干旱总体上来说发生频率较高,大约2-3年就发生一次,从区域分布上来说北部干旱程度高于南部、西部高于东部,从季节上来说,春旱最为频繁,初夏旱次之。旱灾总体分布与干旱分布基本一致,但由于人口分布、产业结构、抗旱能力等的影响,旱灾分布与干旱分布又呈现一定的地区差异性。
综合气象干旱、水文干旱、农业干旱和社会经济干旱四种干旱类型,从区域干旱的角度,应用模糊综合评价的方法对河南区域干旱等级进行了评估,然后通过信息扩散方法,计算得到河南各市不同干旱等级发生的概率。从灾害风险分析的角度,建立了干旱危险性、承灾体暴露性、承灾体敏感性、区域综合抗旱减灾能力等区域干旱风险评估指标体系,并按人口、财产两类承灾体对河南各市的承灾体脆弱性进行评估。
采用参数评估法,依据风险度=危险度×脆弱度的基本模式,建立了河南省区域干旱风险度评估模型,并根据区域干旱风险指数的大小,进行干旱灾害风险区划,制作干旱灾害风险图。总体而言,豫南豫东属于干旱风险低值区,豫西南、豫中属于中值区,豫北豫西属于高值区。
通过对河南历年的干旱灾害损失资料进行分析,构建了河南人口、农林渔牧和工业灾害损失估算模型,并计算历年的因旱损失率。构造对数线性区域干旱风险损失度评估模型,并采用历年的干旱强度、发生频率、承灾体暴露性、承灾体敏感性以及区域综合抗旱减灾能力,率定模型参数。应用此模型预测了郑州市2011～2015年不同风险条件下的干旱损失大小。
Drought disaster is one of the most important natural disasters in Henan province. The drougt disaster brings certain bad enfluences to both urban and rural residents and industrial and agricultural production, which severely restricts the normal operation of social economy in our province. Therefore, drought risk analysis and assessment is important to all levels of governments in drought information collection, prevention and measures to the drought, and transformation from emergency management to rick management.
With analysis on the places and distribution of drought in Henan, the result shows that the frequency of drought in Henan is high in general, more or less once for each 2-3 years. From regional distribution, the northern part of the drought is higher than the southern part, and the western part is higher than the eastern past. From the seasonal respective, the drought in spring is most frequent, followed by summer drought. The overall distribution of drought is consistent with the distribution of drought. However, because of population distribution, industrial structure, and drought resistance, drought distribution and arid distribution show certain differences.
From the perspective of regional drought, integrated four types of meteorological drought, hydrological drought, agricultural drought and socio-drought, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is applied in regional drought levels in Henan, and then information diffusion method is used to calculate probability of drought of different levels in the cities of Henan. From the perspective of disaster risk analysis, regional drought risk assessment index system, such as drought risk, hazard exposition, regional integrated disaster reduction capability, is established, and the disaster vulnerability for the cities is assessed according to population and property.
With parameter evaluation method, based on Risk Degree= Hazard Degree×Vulnerability, Henan regional drought risk evaluation model is created. Then in accordance with regional risk index, conduct drought risk planning and make the thematic map of drought disaster risk. Overall, the risk of drought in south and east of Henan is low value area, southwest, central places belongs to mid-value area, and north and westof Henan is high value area.
Through the analysis on years of drought losses in Henan, the paper builds models of population, agriculture and fishery, and industrial loss, and calculates the loss rate over the years. Then construct log-linear regional drought risk loss evaluation model, using years of drought risk, hazard exposition, and regional integrated disaster reduction capability to calibrate model parameters. This model can predict drought damage degree under different risk levels in Zhengzhou City,2011 to 2015.
通过对河南干旱和旱灾时空分布进行分析,结果显示河南干旱总体上来说发生频率较高,大约2-3年就发生一次,从区域分布上来说北部干旱程度高于南部、西部高于东部,从季节上来说,春旱最为频繁,初夏旱次之。旱灾总体分布与干旱分布基本一致,但由于人口分布、产业结构、抗旱能力等的影响,旱灾分布与干旱分布又呈现一定的地区差异性。
综合气象干旱、水文干旱、农业干旱和社会经济干旱四种干旱类型,从区域干旱的角度,应用模糊综合评价的方法对河南区域干旱等级进行了评估,然后通过信息扩散方法,计算得到河南各市不同干旱等级发生的概率。从灾害风险分析的角度,建立了干旱危险性、承灾体暴露性、承灾体敏感性、区域综合抗旱减灾能力等区域干旱风险评估指标体系,并按人口、财产两类承灾体对河南各市的承灾体脆弱性进行评估。
采用参数评估法,依据风险度=危险度×脆弱度的基本模式,建立了河南省区域干旱风险度评估模型,并根据区域干旱风险指数的大小,进行干旱灾害风险区划,制作干旱灾害风险图。总体而言,豫南豫东属于干旱风险低值区,豫西南、豫中属于中值区,豫北豫西属于高值区。
通过对河南历年的干旱灾害损失资料进行分析,构建了河南人口、农林渔牧和工业灾害损失估算模型,并计算历年的因旱损失率。构造对数线性区域干旱风险损失度评估模型,并采用历年的干旱强度、发生频率、承灾体暴露性、承灾体敏感性以及区域综合抗旱减灾能力,率定模型参数。应用此模型预测了郑州市2011～2015年不同风险条件下的干旱损失大小。
Drought disaster is one of the most important natural disasters in Henan province. The drougt disaster brings certain bad enfluences to both urban and rural residents and industrial and agricultural production, which severely restricts the normal operation of social economy in our province. Therefore, drought risk analysis and assessment is important to all levels of governments in drought information collection, prevention and measures to the drought, and transformation from emergency management to rick management.
With analysis on the places and distribution of drought in Henan, the result shows that the frequency of drought in Henan is high in general, more or less once for each 2-3 years. From regional distribution, the northern part of the drought is higher than the southern part, and the western part is higher than the eastern past. From the seasonal respective, the drought in spring is most frequent, followed by summer drought. The overall distribution of drought is consistent with the distribution of drought. However, because of population distribution, industrial structure, and drought resistance, drought distribution and arid distribution show certain differences.
From the perspective of regional drought, integrated four types of meteorological drought, hydrological drought, agricultural drought and socio-drought, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is applied in regional drought levels in Henan, and then information diffusion method is used to calculate probability of drought of different levels in the cities of Henan. From the perspective of disaster risk analysis, regional drought risk assessment index system, such as drought risk, hazard exposition, regional integrated disaster reduction capability, is established, and the disaster vulnerability for the cities is assessed according to population and property.
With parameter evaluation method, based on Risk Degree= Hazard Degree×Vulnerability, Henan regional drought risk evaluation model is created. Then in accordance with regional risk index, conduct drought risk planning and make the thematic map of drought disaster risk. Overall, the risk of drought in south and east of Henan is low value area, southwest, central places belongs to mid-value area, and north and westof Henan is high value area.
Through the analysis on years of drought losses in Henan, the paper builds models of population, agriculture and fishery, and industrial loss, and calculates the loss rate over the years. Then construct log-linear regional drought risk loss evaluation model, using years of drought risk, hazard exposition, and regional integrated disaster reduction capability to calibrate model parameters. This model can predict drought damage degree under different risk levels in Zhengzhou City,2011 to 2015.
引文
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[3]鞠笑生,杨贤为.我国单站旱涝指标确定和区域旱涝级别划分的研究应用[J].气象学报,1997,8(1)：26～33
[4]Bahlme H N, Mooley. Large scale drought/flood and Monsoon circulation[J]. Mon Weather Rev,1980,108～110
[5]石培华等.相对蒸散发用于冬小麦水分亏缺诊断及灌溉决策初步探讨[J].中国农业气象,1995,16(3)：23～28
[6]董振国.作物层温度与土壤水分的关系[J].科学通报,1986,,8(1)：78～82
[7]袁文平,周广胜.干旱指标的理论分析与研究展望[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(6)：982～991
[8]国家防汛抗旱总指挥部办公室,水利部南京水文水资源研究所.中国水旱灾害[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,1997,307～317
[9]熊立华,郭生练,胡彩虹.TOPMODEL在流域径流模拟中的应用研究[J].水文,2002,22(5)：5～8
[10]Peters N E, Freer J, Beven K. Modelling hydrologic responses in a small forested catchment(Panola Mountain, Georgia, USA):A comparison of the original and a new dynamic TOPMODEL[J]. Hydrological Processes,2003,17(2):345～362
[11]Ohlsson. Water conflict and social resource scarcity [J]. Physics and Chemistry of The Earth (B),2000,25(3):213～220
[12]刘薇,曹升乐,任立良.模糊综合模型在干旱等级评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2008,26(12)：100～103
[13]Paul. A Samuelson, William D Nordhaus. Microeconomics[M]. Boston:McGraw-Hill Irwin, 2001
[14]陈仕亮.风险管理[M].成都：西南财经大学出版社,1994.13～47
[15]胡政,孙昭民.灾害风险评价与保险[M].北京：地震出版社,1999.2～32
[16]徐波.城市防灾减灾规划研究[D].[博士学位论文].上海：同济大学,2008
[17]Carter D A. A worstease methodology for obtaining a rough but rapidindieation Of the societal risk from a major accident hazard installation[J]. J Hazard Mater.2002, (92):223～ 237
[18]Committee of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. Final Report of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction(IDNDR)[R]. 1999. http://www.idndr.org/stcrep.htm
[19]薛晔,黄崇福.自然灾害风险评估模型的研究进展[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2006, 12(14),1～10
[20]韩宇平等.马尔科夫链在区域干旱风险研究中的应用[J].内蒙古师范大学学报自然科学(汉文)版,2003,32(1)：33～38
[21]刘立新等.区域水灾风险评估模型研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(2)：66～72
[22]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析的基本原理[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(2)：21～30
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