农户天气风险防范行为研究
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摘要
本研究的主题是农户天气风险防范行为的特点及其影响因素。我国自然气候恶劣,农业受天气影响巨大。天气风险造成农户损失严重,因而农户需要采取有效的防范措施来规避天气风险。而由于我国农业发展长期滞后,农业基础设施建设落后,相关辅助政策不健全,导致农户不能有效地运用各种天气风险防范措施。为找出制约农户天气风险防范行为的影响因素,引导农户有效防范天气风险,本文以陕西、甘肃两省农户的天气风险防范行为为研究对象,通过文献资料查阅、问卷调查等方法,对农户的天气风险防范措施的现状进行实证考察和研究;对获取的资料,采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,分析影响农户天气风险防范行为的因素,并从农户和政府两个角度,提出改善天气风险防范措施的对策。
本文较好地弥补了农户天气风险防范行为理论研究领域的空白,为政府和农户提供很好的借鉴,对提高农户收入、解决三农问题具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。第一,有助于引导农户合理地、有计划地进行农业生产,保证农业生产的安全;第二,有助于政府理解农户生产行为,制定农业相关政策,帮助农户从事农业生产;第三,有利于农业生产的正常进行,合理调整农业生产结构;第四,有助于稳定农业收入,使农户安心从事农业生产,保障国家的粮食安全。
经过研究,本文得出如下结论:
第一,农户的风险意识并不薄弱。大多数农户关注天气变化情况,都采用了防范措施,各项措施实施比率均在70%以上。对于天气保险,大多数农户在了解其作用和特点后均表示有购买兴趣。这说明大多数农户有强烈的风险防范意识。
第二,农户天气风险防范措施有限,不能很好地防范天气风险。与发达国家相比,我国农户选择天气风险防范措施的范围很小,并且一些很重要的防范措施得不到应用。农户不能全面地、有效地防范天气风险,致使农业生产得不到保障,农户收入存在很大不确定性。
第三,解决农户天气风险防范问题,需要政府和农户两方面共同努力。政府应大力增加农业投入,改善农业生产环境,出台相关政策保障农业生产,引进国外先进的农业金融产品技术,扩大农户天气风险防范的选择范围。农户应积极主动地了解相关政策,因地制宜地采取措施防范天气风险。
The theme of this paper are characteristics and influencing factors of farmers’behavior of preventing weather risk. Agriculture in our country is severely affected by the bad weather. The weather risk causing serious losses, so farmers need to take effective precautions to avoid weather risks. Because agriculture in China lags behind long-term, agricultural infrastructure construction are unsatisfactory, the relevant supporting policies are not perfect, farmers cannot utilize precautions well to prevent the weather risk at present. To find the factors affecting farmers’behavior of weather risk prevention, and guide farmers to effectively prevent the weather risk, this paper take farmers’behavior of weather risk prevention in provinces of Shaanxi and Gansu as the object of study, through the document data, questionnaires and other methods, research the current situation of farmers’weather risk prevention measures; using the combination method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,analysis the factors of affecting the behavior of farmers preventing weather risk factors, put forward measures to improve the weather risk prevention countermeasures on the view of farmers and government.
This research make up for theory blank of the behavior of farmers against weather risk, and provide good reference to government and the farmers, it is great for improving household income and solving the problems of agriculture. Firstly, it is benefit for farmers to carry out agricultural production, ensuring the safety of agricultural production; Secondly, help the government understand the production behavior of farmers, develop agricultural policies and help farmers engaged in agricultural production; Thirdly, it is benefit for agricultural production and rationalizing the structure of agricultural production; Fourthly, help to stabilize farm income, assure farmers engaged in agricultural production, protect the country's food security.
After studying, this paper draw the following conclusions:
Firstly, farmer's risk awareness is not weak. Most farmers concern about the weather, have adopted preventive measures, the ratio of measures implemented are more than 70%. After understanding the role and characteristics of weather insurance, most of the farmers have expressed an interest in buying. This shows that most farmers have a strong awareness of risk prevention.
Secondly, farmers’weather risk prevention measures are limited. Farmer can’t well guard against weather risk. Compared with developed countries, weather risk prevention measures that China's farmers can choose are very limited, and some very important preventive measures are not applied. Farmers can’t be fully effective prevent weather risk, resulting in lack of protection of agricultural production and great uncertainty of household income.
Thirdly, it needs both government and farmers to pay efforts to solving problems of weather risk prevention. The government should greatly increase investment in agriculture, improve agricultural production environment, introduce relevant policies to protect agricultural production, introduce foreign advanced technology of agricultural finance products, expand farmers’options of preventing weather risk.
本文较好地弥补了农户天气风险防范行为理论研究领域的空白,为政府和农户提供很好的借鉴,对提高农户收入、解决三农问题具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。第一,有助于引导农户合理地、有计划地进行农业生产,保证农业生产的安全;第二,有助于政府理解农户生产行为,制定农业相关政策,帮助农户从事农业生产;第三,有利于农业生产的正常进行,合理调整农业生产结构;第四,有助于稳定农业收入,使农户安心从事农业生产,保障国家的粮食安全。
经过研究,本文得出如下结论:
第一,农户的风险意识并不薄弱。大多数农户关注天气变化情况,都采用了防范措施,各项措施实施比率均在70%以上。对于天气保险,大多数农户在了解其作用和特点后均表示有购买兴趣。这说明大多数农户有强烈的风险防范意识。
第二,农户天气风险防范措施有限,不能很好地防范天气风险。与发达国家相比,我国农户选择天气风险防范措施的范围很小,并且一些很重要的防范措施得不到应用。农户不能全面地、有效地防范天气风险,致使农业生产得不到保障,农户收入存在很大不确定性。
第三,解决农户天气风险防范问题,需要政府和农户两方面共同努力。政府应大力增加农业投入,改善农业生产环境,出台相关政策保障农业生产,引进国外先进的农业金融产品技术,扩大农户天气风险防范的选择范围。农户应积极主动地了解相关政策,因地制宜地采取措施防范天气风险。
The theme of this paper are characteristics and influencing factors of farmers’behavior of preventing weather risk. Agriculture in our country is severely affected by the bad weather. The weather risk causing serious losses, so farmers need to take effective precautions to avoid weather risks. Because agriculture in China lags behind long-term, agricultural infrastructure construction are unsatisfactory, the relevant supporting policies are not perfect, farmers cannot utilize precautions well to prevent the weather risk at present. To find the factors affecting farmers’behavior of weather risk prevention, and guide farmers to effectively prevent the weather risk, this paper take farmers’behavior of weather risk prevention in provinces of Shaanxi and Gansu as the object of study, through the document data, questionnaires and other methods, research the current situation of farmers’weather risk prevention measures; using the combination method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,analysis the factors of affecting the behavior of farmers preventing weather risk factors, put forward measures to improve the weather risk prevention countermeasures on the view of farmers and government.
This research make up for theory blank of the behavior of farmers against weather risk, and provide good reference to government and the farmers, it is great for improving household income and solving the problems of agriculture. Firstly, it is benefit for farmers to carry out agricultural production, ensuring the safety of agricultural production; Secondly, help the government understand the production behavior of farmers, develop agricultural policies and help farmers engaged in agricultural production; Thirdly, it is benefit for agricultural production and rationalizing the structure of agricultural production; Fourthly, help to stabilize farm income, assure farmers engaged in agricultural production, protect the country's food security.
After studying, this paper draw the following conclusions:
Firstly, farmer's risk awareness is not weak. Most farmers concern about the weather, have adopted preventive measures, the ratio of measures implemented are more than 70%. After understanding the role and characteristics of weather insurance, most of the farmers have expressed an interest in buying. This shows that most farmers have a strong awareness of risk prevention.
Secondly, farmers’weather risk prevention measures are limited. Farmer can’t well guard against weather risk. Compared with developed countries, weather risk prevention measures that China's farmers can choose are very limited, and some very important preventive measures are not applied. Farmers can’t be fully effective prevent weather risk, resulting in lack of protection of agricultural production and great uncertainty of household income.
Thirdly, it needs both government and farmers to pay efforts to solving problems of weather risk prevention. The government should greatly increase investment in agriculture, improve agricultural production environment, introduce relevant policies to protect agricultural production, introduce foreign advanced technology of agricultural finance products, expand farmers’options of preventing weather risk.
引文
白莉萍,林而达.2003.CO2浓度升高与气候变化对农业的影响研究进展.中国生态农业学报, 11:133
陈佳资.1999.企业风险管理.广州:广东经济出版社:3~11
陈靖.2004.天气期货在中国的开发和应用.上海金融,12:11~13
陈立双,张谛.2005.影响农户对农业投资的因素.经济研究参考,47:28
丁少群.1996.农村灾害管理:防赔结合的农业保险模式.中国农村经济,1
关林.1994.关于农业灾害管理与保险保障问题的探讨.中国保险管理干部学院学报,3:31~33
郭敏,屈艳芳.2002.农户投资行为实证研究.经济研究,6:86~92
洪锡熙.1999.风险管理.广州:暨南大学出版社:90~94
胡爱军等.2007.论非灾害天气风险管理.金融经济,5:110~111
黄小玉.2007.我国农业天气风险管理的问题及对策.商业时代,30:6
李黎,张羽.2006.农业自然风险的金融管理:天气衍生品的兴起.证券市场导报,3:49~53
林毅夫.2005.制度技术与中国农业发展.上海:上海人民出版社:34~38
柳长顺等.2006.近20年我国有效灌溉面积动态分析.资源科学,3:9~10
刘承芳.2001.农户生产性投资行为研究——江苏省的实证研究.[硕士学位论文].北京:中国农业科学院
卢丽萍等. 2009.30年来我国农业气象灾害对农业生产的影响及其空间分布特征.生态环境学报, 18:1574
马小勇.2006.中国农户的风险规避行为分析.中国软科学,2:22~30
马燕玲.2007.国外农业保险的经验及其对我国的启示.金融与经济.6:42~44
宁金花,申双和.2009.气候变化对中国农业的影响.现代农业科技,12:251~252
舒尔茨.1987.改造传统农业.北京:商务印书馆:11~18
孙良媛,张岳恒.2001.转型期农业风险的特点与风险管理.农业经济问题,8:20~25
陶建平.2003.长江中下游平原农业洪涝灾害风险管理研究.[博士学位论文].武汉:华中农业大学
庹国柱.1997.农业保险体制改革模式选择.中国农村经济,6:60~63
王馥棠.2002.近十年来中国气候变暖影响研究的若干进展.应用气象学报,12:755~765
王广深,侯石安.2009.中外农田水利建设补贴政策比较研究.内蒙古社会科学,7:78
王国敏.2007.建立农业自然灾害风险管理综合防范体系的建议.经济参考,54:24~25
王吉恒.2003.国有农场农业风险管理研究.[博士学位论文].哈尔滨:东北农业大学
肖风劲,张海东,王春乙.2006.气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及适应性对策.自然灾害学报, 6:329
熊存开.1994.国外农业风险管理研究.农业经济问题,1:61
姚海明,赵锦城.2004.合作保险:我国农业保险模式的理性选择,9:67~70
叶海燕.2009.当前农村金融存在的问题及对策探讨.决策导刊,2:17~18
尹晨,许晓英. 2007.论天气衍生品与农业风险管理.财经理论与实践,1:56~59
张祖荣.2006.当前我国农业保险发展的主要问题及对策建议.财经科学,10:37
周曙东,周文魁.2009.我国农业应对气候变化的发展策略研究.未来与发展,9:16
Bela Mukhoti.1966.“Agrarian Structure in Relation to Farm Investment Decisions and
Agricultural Productivity in a Low-Income Country-The Indian Case”. Farm Econ,12:1210~1215
Boehlje Michael D, White T Kelly.1969.A Production-Investment Decision Model of Farm Firm Growth. Farm Econ,8:546~575
Fuhrer J. 2006.Agricultural systems: sensitivity to climate change. CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources,1:8
Harris D. 1999. Risk management in precision farming. Precision agriculture’97 Volume II. Technology, IT and management,11:1221~1226
Luan C.2001.Insurance Premium calculations with anticipated utility theory. ASTIN Bulletin:27~39
Motha Raymond P.2007.Implications of climate change on long-lead forecasting and global agriculture. Australian Journal of Agricultural research,28:939~944
Musshoff O, Hirschauer N.2008. Risk management and weather derivatives in agriculture- how much will farmers pay for an incomplete protection from weather risks. Agrawirtschaft, 57:269~280
Puppe C.1991.Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk. Berlin: Springer Verlag:40~49
Reardon Thomas, Grawford Eric, Kelly Valarie. 1994.Links Between Nonfarm Income and Farm Investment in African Households Adding the Capital Market Perspective. Farm Econ, 12:1172~1176
Turvey C G.2001.Weather derivatives for specific event risks in agriculture. Review of Agricultural Economics,23:333~351
陈佳资.1999.企业风险管理.广州:广东经济出版社:3~11
陈靖.2004.天气期货在中国的开发和应用.上海金融,12:11~13
陈立双,张谛.2005.影响农户对农业投资的因素.经济研究参考,47:28
丁少群.1996.农村灾害管理:防赔结合的农业保险模式.中国农村经济,1
关林.1994.关于农业灾害管理与保险保障问题的探讨.中国保险管理干部学院学报,3:31~33
郭敏,屈艳芳.2002.农户投资行为实证研究.经济研究,6:86~92
洪锡熙.1999.风险管理.广州:暨南大学出版社:90~94
胡爱军等.2007.论非灾害天气风险管理.金融经济,5:110~111
黄小玉.2007.我国农业天气风险管理的问题及对策.商业时代,30:6
李黎,张羽.2006.农业自然风险的金融管理:天气衍生品的兴起.证券市场导报,3:49~53
林毅夫.2005.制度技术与中国农业发展.上海:上海人民出版社:34~38
柳长顺等.2006.近20年我国有效灌溉面积动态分析.资源科学,3:9~10
刘承芳.2001.农户生产性投资行为研究——江苏省的实证研究.[硕士学位论文].北京:中国农业科学院
卢丽萍等. 2009.30年来我国农业气象灾害对农业生产的影响及其空间分布特征.生态环境学报, 18:1574
马小勇.2006.中国农户的风险规避行为分析.中国软科学,2:22~30
马燕玲.2007.国外农业保险的经验及其对我国的启示.金融与经济.6:42~44
宁金花,申双和.2009.气候变化对中国农业的影响.现代农业科技,12:251~252
舒尔茨.1987.改造传统农业.北京:商务印书馆:11~18
孙良媛,张岳恒.2001.转型期农业风险的特点与风险管理.农业经济问题,8:20~25
陶建平.2003.长江中下游平原农业洪涝灾害风险管理研究.[博士学位论文].武汉:华中农业大学
庹国柱.1997.农业保险体制改革模式选择.中国农村经济,6:60~63
王馥棠.2002.近十年来中国气候变暖影响研究的若干进展.应用气象学报,12:755~765
王广深,侯石安.2009.中外农田水利建设补贴政策比较研究.内蒙古社会科学,7:78
王国敏.2007.建立农业自然灾害风险管理综合防范体系的建议.经济参考,54:24~25
王吉恒.2003.国有农场农业风险管理研究.[博士学位论文].哈尔滨:东北农业大学
肖风劲,张海东,王春乙.2006.气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及适应性对策.自然灾害学报, 6:329
熊存开.1994.国外农业风险管理研究.农业经济问题,1:61
姚海明,赵锦城.2004.合作保险:我国农业保险模式的理性选择,9:67~70
叶海燕.2009.当前农村金融存在的问题及对策探讨.决策导刊,2:17~18
尹晨,许晓英. 2007.论天气衍生品与农业风险管理.财经理论与实践,1:56~59
张祖荣.2006.当前我国农业保险发展的主要问题及对策建议.财经科学,10:37
周曙东,周文魁.2009.我国农业应对气候变化的发展策略研究.未来与发展,9:16
Bela Mukhoti.1966.“Agrarian Structure in Relation to Farm Investment Decisions and
Agricultural Productivity in a Low-Income Country-The Indian Case”. Farm Econ,12:1210~1215
Boehlje Michael D, White T Kelly.1969.A Production-Investment Decision Model of Farm Firm Growth. Farm Econ,8:546~575
Fuhrer J. 2006.Agricultural systems: sensitivity to climate change. CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources,1:8
Harris D. 1999. Risk management in precision farming. Precision agriculture’97 Volume II. Technology, IT and management,11:1221~1226
Luan C.2001.Insurance Premium calculations with anticipated utility theory. ASTIN Bulletin:27~39
Motha Raymond P.2007.Implications of climate change on long-lead forecasting and global agriculture. Australian Journal of Agricultural research,28:939~944
Musshoff O, Hirschauer N.2008. Risk management and weather derivatives in agriculture- how much will farmers pay for an incomplete protection from weather risks. Agrawirtschaft, 57:269~280
Puppe C.1991.Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk. Berlin: Springer Verlag:40~49
Reardon Thomas, Grawford Eric, Kelly Valarie. 1994.Links Between Nonfarm Income and Farm Investment in African Households Adding the Capital Market Perspective. Farm Econ, 12:1172~1176
Turvey C G.2001.Weather derivatives for specific event risks in agriculture. Review of Agricultural Economics,23:333~351