陕西省农信社农业贷款支持农民增收的实证研究
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摘要
农村金融的发展对解决我国的“三农”问题有着至关重要的作用。“三农”问题的解决需要大量的资金投入,农村信用社作为农村金融的主力军,如何实现农村信用社最大程度地支持“三农”发展的问题迫切需要解决。
本文在对陕西省农村信用社经营现状、支农现状和存在问题进行定性分析的基础上,从促进农民收入增长的角度出发,探讨了陕西省农村信用社农业贷款支持农民增收的途径,利用CD生产函数对影响农民收入的因素进行逐步回归分析,并运用趋势预测分析法和寻找最优解的运算方法对陕西省农村信用社农业贷款支持农民增收进行了实证分析。实证分析结果显示,农产品价格和农民收入之间存在很强的相关性,农产品价格是影响农民收入增长的一个非常重要因素。陕西省农村就业结构的变动改变了农民收入的构成,促进了农民非农产业收入的增加。陕西省农信社农业贷款对农民增收的贡献率较低,没有充分体现农信社农业贷款支持农民增收的应有预期效果。人均耕地面积的变化对农民收入有显著影响,但是这种影响和其他变量的影响性质不一样。
在理论分析和实证分析的基础上,本文尝试运用制度经济学的原理,构建新的陕西省农信社农业贷款的投放方式和管理机制的方式,提出农村信用社促进农民增收的政策建议和对策。
第一章：本章主要介绍了论文研究的背景、目的和意义,总结了国内外的研究理论和研究方法等。同时,说明了本文的研究思路、具体研究方法及论文的创新之处。
第二章：本章系统分析了陕西省农信社的经营现状、农业贷款支持农民增收的现状,最后比较详细介绍了陕西省农信社现存的主要问题。
第三章：本章主要介绍本文研究所用的模型、模型的假设前提和变量的选择,计算得出陕西省农信社农业贷款支持农民增收的贡献率,最后进行结果分析。
第四章：本章提出陕西省农信社农业贷款新的投放方式和经营管理机制。
第五章：本章提出促进陕西省农信社支持农民增收的政策建议和对策。
第六章：对陕西省农信社的未来发展的展望。
The development of rural finance plays a very important role in solving our country's "three dimensional rural" problem. Solving three dimensional rural problem needs massive investing funds, the Rural Credit Cooperative is regarded as the main role of rural finance, the question that how to realize the Rural Credit Cooperative supporting three dimensional rural problem's development in a deep degree is urgent to solve.
Based on the qualitative analysis of the present situation of Shaanxi Province Rural Credit Cooperative management,supporting agriculture' s development and it's existence question, from the angle of promoting farmers'income growth, this article discusses the way of the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative agricultural loan to support farmer's additionally receiving, using the CD production function to carry on stepwise regression analysis on the factor of affecting the farmers' income growth, and using the tendency forecast analytic method,and seeking for the optimal solution of the operational method, carries the empirical analysis on the question of the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative agricultural loan to support farmer's additionally receiving. The empirical analysis result demonstrates, the farm price and the farmers' income has close relevance, the farm price has very important affection on the attribution of the farmers' income growth. The change of Shaanxi Province countryside employment's structure has changed the farmers' income constitution and promoted farmers'non-agricultural income increasing. The Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative agricultural loan has low contribution to the farmers' receiving growth, hasn't fully manifested the Rural Credit Cooperative agriculture loan's expecting effect on supporting farmer receiving growth. The average per person cultivating area's change has different influence on the farmers' income growth.
Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this article attempts to use the principle of the System Economic Discipline, to constructs the new delivery way of Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative's agricultural loan and the new management mechanism, in order to propose the effective policy suggestion and the countermeasure for the Rural Credit Cooperative promoting the farmer additionally receiving.
The first chapter:This chapter mainly introduced the paper research's background, the goal and the significance, summarized the domestic and foreign research theory and the research technique and so on. At the same time, explained this article research mentality, the concrete research technique and the paper's innovation.
The second chapter:This chapter system analyses Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative manageable present situation, the agricultural loan have supported farmer additionally receiving, finally introduced the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative extant subject matter.
The third chapter:This chapter main introduced the model, the model supposition premise, the variable, the computation obtains the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative agricultural loan to support farmer additionally receiving the technical progress factor, finally carries on the analysis to the result.
The fourth chapter:This chapter proposes the new delivery way and the management and operation mechanism of the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative agricultural loan.
The fifth chapter:This chapter proposed that promotes the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative support farmer additionally receiving policy suggestion and the countermeasure.
The sixth chapter:This chapter mainly introduced the development forecast of Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative's future.
本文在对陕西省农村信用社经营现状、支农现状和存在问题进行定性分析的基础上,从促进农民收入增长的角度出发,探讨了陕西省农村信用社农业贷款支持农民增收的途径,利用CD生产函数对影响农民收入的因素进行逐步回归分析,并运用趋势预测分析法和寻找最优解的运算方法对陕西省农村信用社农业贷款支持农民增收进行了实证分析。实证分析结果显示,农产品价格和农民收入之间存在很强的相关性,农产品价格是影响农民收入增长的一个非常重要因素。陕西省农村就业结构的变动改变了农民收入的构成,促进了农民非农产业收入的增加。陕西省农信社农业贷款对农民增收的贡献率较低,没有充分体现农信社农业贷款支持农民增收的应有预期效果。人均耕地面积的变化对农民收入有显著影响,但是这种影响和其他变量的影响性质不一样。
在理论分析和实证分析的基础上,本文尝试运用制度经济学的原理,构建新的陕西省农信社农业贷款的投放方式和管理机制的方式,提出农村信用社促进农民增收的政策建议和对策。
第一章：本章主要介绍了论文研究的背景、目的和意义,总结了国内外的研究理论和研究方法等。同时,说明了本文的研究思路、具体研究方法及论文的创新之处。
第二章：本章系统分析了陕西省农信社的经营现状、农业贷款支持农民增收的现状,最后比较详细介绍了陕西省农信社现存的主要问题。
第三章：本章主要介绍本文研究所用的模型、模型的假设前提和变量的选择,计算得出陕西省农信社农业贷款支持农民增收的贡献率,最后进行结果分析。
第四章：本章提出陕西省农信社农业贷款新的投放方式和经营管理机制。
第五章：本章提出促进陕西省农信社支持农民增收的政策建议和对策。
第六章：对陕西省农信社的未来发展的展望。
The development of rural finance plays a very important role in solving our country's "three dimensional rural" problem. Solving three dimensional rural problem needs massive investing funds, the Rural Credit Cooperative is regarded as the main role of rural finance, the question that how to realize the Rural Credit Cooperative supporting three dimensional rural problem's development in a deep degree is urgent to solve.
Based on the qualitative analysis of the present situation of Shaanxi Province Rural Credit Cooperative management,supporting agriculture' s development and it's existence question, from the angle of promoting farmers'income growth, this article discusses the way of the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative agricultural loan to support farmer's additionally receiving, using the CD production function to carry on stepwise regression analysis on the factor of affecting the farmers' income growth, and using the tendency forecast analytic method,and seeking for the optimal solution of the operational method, carries the empirical analysis on the question of the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative agricultural loan to support farmer's additionally receiving. The empirical analysis result demonstrates, the farm price and the farmers' income has close relevance, the farm price has very important affection on the attribution of the farmers' income growth. The change of Shaanxi Province countryside employment's structure has changed the farmers' income constitution and promoted farmers'non-agricultural income increasing. The Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative agricultural loan has low contribution to the farmers' receiving growth, hasn't fully manifested the Rural Credit Cooperative agriculture loan's expecting effect on supporting farmer receiving growth. The average per person cultivating area's change has different influence on the farmers' income growth.
Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this article attempts to use the principle of the System Economic Discipline, to constructs the new delivery way of Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative's agricultural loan and the new management mechanism, in order to propose the effective policy suggestion and the countermeasure for the Rural Credit Cooperative promoting the farmer additionally receiving.
The first chapter:This chapter mainly introduced the paper research's background, the goal and the significance, summarized the domestic and foreign research theory and the research technique and so on. At the same time, explained this article research mentality, the concrete research technique and the paper's innovation.
The second chapter:This chapter system analyses Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative manageable present situation, the agricultural loan have supported farmer additionally receiving, finally introduced the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative extant subject matter.
The third chapter:This chapter main introduced the model, the model supposition premise, the variable, the computation obtains the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative agricultural loan to support farmer additionally receiving the technical progress factor, finally carries on the analysis to the result.
The fourth chapter:This chapter proposes the new delivery way and the management and operation mechanism of the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative agricultural loan.
The fifth chapter:This chapter proposed that promotes the Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative support farmer additionally receiving policy suggestion and the countermeasure.
The sixth chapter:This chapter mainly introduced the development forecast of Shaanxi Rural Credit Cooperative's future.
引文
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王文莉.2006.农村信用社管理体制改革：陕西的案例.经济问题,(7)：60-62
吴晨光,陈军,姚海琳.2006.由某市信用社“三农”贷款投放难引发的思考.现代金融,(4)：25X
肖四如.2008.如何破解农信社改革的九大难题.农村金融,(12)：102-105
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陈赛玲.2002.关于杭州辖内农村信用社信贷支农服务情况的调查分析.中国农村经济,(8)：26-29
董晓林,王娟.2004.我国农村地区金融发展与经济增长——内生增长模型分析.南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),(4)：44-48
付俊文.2009.农村金融创新的现状、问题及对策——以陕西省为例.金融理论与实践,(2)：57-60
耿军锋,杨育民.2007.陕西省农村信用社改革之支农策略探析.商场现代化,(7)：383-383
黄春峰.2009.深化农信社改革必须强化支农服务.财经纵横,(2)：77-78
花连水.2007.省联社体制下农信社的风险管理.中国农村信用合作,(16)：18-19
韩廷春.2001.金融发展与经济增长——基于中国的实证分析.经济科学,(3)：31-39
李赞.2008-2-19.陕西农信社：近400亿元支持新农村建设.陕西日报,5
罗剑朝,阚先学.2008.山西省农村金融对增加农民收入支持状况实证分析.大连理工大学学报(社会科学版),(3)：18-22
罗剑朝.2005.中国农地金融制度研究.北京：中国农业出版社,226-227
陆英齐.2010.农村信用社内部控制的现状与对策分析.集体经济,(11)：15
刘仁伍.2006.新农村建设中的金融问题.北京：中国金融出版社：165-170
罗剑朝.2005.中国农地金融制度研究.北京：中国农业出版社.211-215
马晓丽.2008.农信社内控制度存在的问题及对策.河北金融,(12)：53-54
钱方明,孙克,汤钟尧.2008.区域金融发展与经济发展关系实证研究——以江为例.上海金融,(6)：69-72
任瑞新.1999.运用新制度经济学原理改革我国金融监管制度.黑龙江财专学报,(6)：66-68
孙立国.宋建国.2003.当前农信社发放农业贷款的问题及对策.金融实务,(4)：49
宋红云.2009.以人为本理念下的企业内部控制环境建设探析.企业家天地,(9)：44-46
史永东,武志,甄红线.2003.我国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析.预测,(3)：1-6
谈儒勇.1999.中国金融发展和经济增长关系的实证研究.经济研究,1999,(10)：53-61
王文莉,罗剑朝.2004.农村信用社管理体制创新跟踪研究.管理现代化,(4)：57-59
温涛,冉光和,熊德平.中国金融发展和农民收入增长.经济研究,2005,(9)：30-32
卫宗荣,夏天中,赵玉建.2009.新形势下农村信用社内部控制建设.财会通讯,(10)：101-102
王中领.2009.提高农信社经营效益之浅见.http:／／www.ncjryj.com／Article／ShowArticle.asp?ArticleID=693[2009-04-06]
王文莉.2006.农村信用社管理体制改革：陕西的案例.经济问题,(7)：60-62
吴晨光,陈军,姚海琳.2006.由某市信用社“三农”贷款投放难引发的思考.现代金融,(4)：25X
肖四如.2008.如何破解农信社改革的九大难题.农村金融,(12)：102-105
徐业红.薛春雨.2007.如何加强农信社内控制度建设与内部审计.时代金融,(6)：62-63
谢太峰,王子博.2008.北京区域金融发展与区域经济增长关系的实证研究.金融理论与实践,(9)：42-45
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