FSA在港口水域通航安全评估中的应用
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摘要
随着海运业的发展,海上航行船舶的数量、类型和吨位都发生了巨大的变化,大量的船舶频繁活动于港口和海上交通要道,使港口等水域通航密度大为增加,重大海上交通事故时有发生,在这样复杂的交通环境条件下,应该以新的观点去研究港口水域船舶通航安全对策。
FSA综合安全评价(Formal Safety Assessment, FSA)是一种系统性和规范化的综合评估方法。它来自于安全系统工程,作为结构化和系统化的分析方法,从系统的整体性出发,综合分析和识别系统中存在的危险或隐患,然后对所识别的危险或隐患进行评价,确定其风险及严重程度,从而提出减少或控制这些风险所采取的措施方案。本文把综合安全评估(FSA)法的流程应用于港口水域船舶通航安全评价中来,试图研究出适合港口水域船舶交通安全的具体方法。特别是在分析和识别影响港口水域通航安全的因素以及如何建立安全评价模型中,我们结合具体实际情况,根据长期的调研和走访结果,充分考虑各种因素并利用现有的安全系统工程的理论成果,找出了影响安全的各种评价指标。在此基础上,运用模糊集合变换原理,以隶属度描述各因素及因子的模糊界线,建立了一个未知测度的港口水域通航安全评估模型,并以此模型对青岛港的港口水域通航安全情况进行了评估,得到了一个可以量化的结果,并给出了如何改善港口水域通航安全性的建议和方法,这对于减少港口海事事故和提高港口运行效率都具有十分重要的现实意义。
The vessel accidents happen occasionally with traffic density increasing greatly due to a mount of vessels navigating in port, as well as the development of ship's amount and types and tonnage becoming larger and larger with the development of the shipment. Based on these complex traffic environments, we must find out some new safety measures in port water from new perspectives.
Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) is a systematic and standard comprehensive assessment method. It originates from the safety systems engineering. As a structured and systematic analysis approach, FSA firstly comprehensively analyses and identifies the dangers or hazards of system based on holism view, and then evaluate these dangers and hazards to determine its risk and severity, finally gives some effective suggestions to reduce or control such risks. This thesis introduces FSA procedure to evaluate navigable safety of port waters, and tries to find out the concrete assessment approaches of traffic safety in port waters. Especially during analyzing and identifying these factors which affects the navigable traffic safety in port waters and establishing the safety assessment models, we combine the result of long-time investigation and visit based on the specific environment, take into account all probable factors and integrate the existing theories of safety system engineering, finally we find out the evaluation indices of influencing the traffic safety. On this basis, we establish an unascertained measure precautionary assessment model of the marine traffic safety in port waters by employing the fuzzy set transformation principle and using membership function of various indices. After that, we apply this model to Qingdao port waters for evaluating the traffic safety conditions and get a quantifiable result which shows the traffic safety conditions of Qingdao port waters, finally we give some suggestions and methods to improve port traffic safety based on this result which can reduce the maritime accidents and increase efficiency of port.
FSA综合安全评价(Formal Safety Assessment, FSA)是一种系统性和规范化的综合评估方法。它来自于安全系统工程,作为结构化和系统化的分析方法,从系统的整体性出发,综合分析和识别系统中存在的危险或隐患,然后对所识别的危险或隐患进行评价,确定其风险及严重程度,从而提出减少或控制这些风险所采取的措施方案。本文把综合安全评估(FSA)法的流程应用于港口水域船舶通航安全评价中来,试图研究出适合港口水域船舶交通安全的具体方法。特别是在分析和识别影响港口水域通航安全的因素以及如何建立安全评价模型中,我们结合具体实际情况,根据长期的调研和走访结果,充分考虑各种因素并利用现有的安全系统工程的理论成果,找出了影响安全的各种评价指标。在此基础上,运用模糊集合变换原理,以隶属度描述各因素及因子的模糊界线,建立了一个未知测度的港口水域通航安全评估模型,并以此模型对青岛港的港口水域通航安全情况进行了评估,得到了一个可以量化的结果,并给出了如何改善港口水域通航安全性的建议和方法,这对于减少港口海事事故和提高港口运行效率都具有十分重要的现实意义。
The vessel accidents happen occasionally with traffic density increasing greatly due to a mount of vessels navigating in port, as well as the development of ship's amount and types and tonnage becoming larger and larger with the development of the shipment. Based on these complex traffic environments, we must find out some new safety measures in port water from new perspectives.
Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) is a systematic and standard comprehensive assessment method. It originates from the safety systems engineering. As a structured and systematic analysis approach, FSA firstly comprehensively analyses and identifies the dangers or hazards of system based on holism view, and then evaluate these dangers and hazards to determine its risk and severity, finally gives some effective suggestions to reduce or control such risks. This thesis introduces FSA procedure to evaluate navigable safety of port waters, and tries to find out the concrete assessment approaches of traffic safety in port waters. Especially during analyzing and identifying these factors which affects the navigable traffic safety in port waters and establishing the safety assessment models, we combine the result of long-time investigation and visit based on the specific environment, take into account all probable factors and integrate the existing theories of safety system engineering, finally we find out the evaluation indices of influencing the traffic safety. On this basis, we establish an unascertained measure precautionary assessment model of the marine traffic safety in port waters by employing the fuzzy set transformation principle and using membership function of various indices. After that, we apply this model to Qingdao port waters for evaluating the traffic safety conditions and get a quantifiable result which shows the traffic safety conditions of Qingdao port waters, finally we give some suggestions and methods to improve port traffic safety based on this result which can reduce the maritime accidents and increase efficiency of port.
引文
[1]郝育国,基于AHP模糊综合评价在船舶碰撞事故责任划分中的应用,上海海运学院学报,2004(1)
[2]曹谢东,模糊信息处理及应用,科学出版社,2003年
[3]向阳.综合安全评估方法在船舶安全规则制定中的应用及对规范发展的影响.船舶工程,1999,(5)：56-58
[4]DraeosVassalos. ShaPingshiPsaefty:theafeeoftheufture. MarineTeehnology.1999, 36(2):61-76
[5]J.Wang, O. Kieran. Offshore safety assessment and safety-based decision making-The current status and future aspects. Journal of offshore mechanics and arctic engineering.2000,122:93-99
[6]MSC 69/INF.31, Formal Safety Assessment study on the effects of introducing helicopter landing areas(HLA) on cruise ships, submitted by Italy, Mareh20,1998
[7]Formal safety assessment of bulk carrier, http://www,rina.org.uk
[8]中国船级社.综合安全评估(FSA)技术介绍.1999年3月.
[9]向阳,朱永峨等.FSA方法在未来船舶工程和航运安全管理中的应用前景.中国船检,2000(1)：35-40.
[10]林少芬,李瑰贤等.散装货船模糊综合安全评估的实现方法.船舶工程,2000(1)：59-62
[11]林少芬,李瑰贤等.散装货船模糊综合安全评估的实现方法(二)---船员因素的组成与作用分析.船舶工程,2000(2)：53-56
[12]林少芬,李瑰贤等.散装货船模糊综合安全评估的实现方法(三)---船舶因素在散装货船安全评估中的作用分析.船舶工程,2000(3)：55-57
[13]中国船级社.综合安全评估应用指南.人民交通出版社,1999.
[14]罗云,樊运晓,马晓春.风险分析与安全评价.北京化学工业出版社,2004
[15]任刚,船舶航运管理中人为因素与风险分析研究,硕士学位论文,大连理工大学,2003
[16]郑中义,吴兆麟,杨.港口船舶事故致因的灰色关联分析模型.大连海事大学学报1997(5)
[17]方泉根,王津,A. Datubo.综合安全评估(FSA)及其在船舶安全中的应用.中国航海,2004(1)
[18]马占新,任慧龙.船舶综合安全评估中的评价方法研究.系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(10)
[19]陈正华,方泉根.规范化安全评估(FSA)在上海港船舶引航安全工作中的应用,中国航海,2005(1)
[20]方泉根.船舶事故预防的规范化安全评估与航海模拟器的应用.上海海事大学学报,2005(2)
[21]邵哲平,吴兆麟,方祥麟.海上交通系统安全定量评估方法.大连海事大学学报,2002(1)
[22]黄志.对船舶安全状况的评估及研究.硕士学位论文.大连海事大学,2000
[23]戴建锋.港口船舶交通安全评估的研究.硕士学位论文.武汉理工大学,2003
[24]谭志荣.港口操船环境危险度的评判方法的研究.硕士学位论文.武汉理工大学,2003
[25]Jin Wang, offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships, Journal of Safety Research,2002
[26]A. G. Datubo, Developments in Trial Application of Formal safety Assessment to Shipping Vessels, Dissertation of Liverpool John Moores University, UK,2003
[27]轩少永.规范化安全评估与港口船舶交通安全.上海船舶运输科学研究所学报,2005,(1)
[28]Kaneko F. Methods for probabilistic safety assessments of ships. Journal of Marine Science and Technology,2002, (7)
[29]江建华.船舶海上应急的综合安全评估FSA研究,硕士学位论文.上海海事大学,2005.
[30]]Vikas Kapoor, Shyam Singh. Fuzzy Application to the Analytic Hierarchy Process for Robot Selection. Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making,2005
[31]樊红.船舶综合安全评估(FSA)方法研究,博士学位论文,武汉理工大学,2004.
[32]李明珂.液化气船航运过程中的综合安全评价的研究,硕士学位论文,大连海事大学,2006
[33]郑中义,吴兆麟.港口船舶航行环境危险度的灰色评价数学模型.大连国际海事技术交流学术研讨会论文集,1998：318-321
[34]文华,海上安全评价研究,博士学位论文,武汉大学,2003.
[35]苏为华,多指标综合评价理论与方法问题研究,博士学位论文,厦门大学,2000
[36]段爱媛,在港口水域船舶交通安全管理中综合安全评估(FSA)的应用研究,博士学位论文,华中科技大学,2007
[37]曾华岚.影响海上交通安全的人为因素分析与评价,硕士学位论文,大连海事大学,2000
[38]张锦朋.海上交通事故中的人为因素分析.上海海运学院学报,1998,(3)
[39]翁跃宗,吴兆麟.厦门港及附近水域船舶交通安全评价,硕士学位论文,大连海事大学,2000.
[40]Tony Rosqvist, Risto Tuominen. Qualification of Formal Safety Assessment:an exploratory study, Safety Science,2004,(42)
[41]邓聚龙.灰色理论基础,武汉华中科技大学出版社2003
[2]曹谢东,模糊信息处理及应用,科学出版社,2003年
[3]向阳.综合安全评估方法在船舶安全规则制定中的应用及对规范发展的影响.船舶工程,1999,(5)：56-58
[4]DraeosVassalos. ShaPingshiPsaefty:theafeeoftheufture. MarineTeehnology.1999, 36(2):61-76
[5]J.Wang, O. Kieran. Offshore safety assessment and safety-based decision making-The current status and future aspects. Journal of offshore mechanics and arctic engineering.2000,122:93-99
[6]MSC 69/INF.31, Formal Safety Assessment study on the effects of introducing helicopter landing areas(HLA) on cruise ships, submitted by Italy, Mareh20,1998
[7]Formal safety assessment of bulk carrier, http://www,rina.org.uk
[8]中国船级社.综合安全评估(FSA)技术介绍.1999年3月.
[9]向阳,朱永峨等.FSA方法在未来船舶工程和航运安全管理中的应用前景.中国船检,2000(1)：35-40.
[10]林少芬,李瑰贤等.散装货船模糊综合安全评估的实现方法.船舶工程,2000(1)：59-62
[11]林少芬,李瑰贤等.散装货船模糊综合安全评估的实现方法(二)---船员因素的组成与作用分析.船舶工程,2000(2)：53-56
[12]林少芬,李瑰贤等.散装货船模糊综合安全评估的实现方法(三)---船舶因素在散装货船安全评估中的作用分析.船舶工程,2000(3)：55-57
[13]中国船级社.综合安全评估应用指南.人民交通出版社,1999.
[14]罗云,樊运晓,马晓春.风险分析与安全评价.北京化学工业出版社,2004
[15]任刚,船舶航运管理中人为因素与风险分析研究,硕士学位论文,大连理工大学,2003
[16]郑中义,吴兆麟,杨.港口船舶事故致因的灰色关联分析模型.大连海事大学学报1997(5)
[17]方泉根,王津,A. Datubo.综合安全评估(FSA)及其在船舶安全中的应用.中国航海,2004(1)
[18]马占新,任慧龙.船舶综合安全评估中的评价方法研究.系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(10)
[19]陈正华,方泉根.规范化安全评估(FSA)在上海港船舶引航安全工作中的应用,中国航海,2005(1)
[20]方泉根.船舶事故预防的规范化安全评估与航海模拟器的应用.上海海事大学学报,2005(2)
[21]邵哲平,吴兆麟,方祥麟.海上交通系统安全定量评估方法.大连海事大学学报,2002(1)
[22]黄志.对船舶安全状况的评估及研究.硕士学位论文.大连海事大学,2000
[23]戴建锋.港口船舶交通安全评估的研究.硕士学位论文.武汉理工大学,2003
[24]谭志荣.港口操船环境危险度的评判方法的研究.硕士学位论文.武汉理工大学,2003
[25]Jin Wang, offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships, Journal of Safety Research,2002
[26]A. G. Datubo, Developments in Trial Application of Formal safety Assessment to Shipping Vessels, Dissertation of Liverpool John Moores University, UK,2003
[27]轩少永.规范化安全评估与港口船舶交通安全.上海船舶运输科学研究所学报,2005,(1)
[28]Kaneko F. Methods for probabilistic safety assessments of ships. Journal of Marine Science and Technology,2002, (7)
[29]江建华.船舶海上应急的综合安全评估FSA研究,硕士学位论文.上海海事大学,2005.
[30]]Vikas Kapoor, Shyam Singh. Fuzzy Application to the Analytic Hierarchy Process for Robot Selection. Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making,2005
[31]樊红.船舶综合安全评估(FSA)方法研究,博士学位论文,武汉理工大学,2004.
[32]李明珂.液化气船航运过程中的综合安全评价的研究,硕士学位论文,大连海事大学,2006
[33]郑中义,吴兆麟.港口船舶航行环境危险度的灰色评价数学模型.大连国际海事技术交流学术研讨会论文集,1998：318-321
[34]文华,海上安全评价研究,博士学位论文,武汉大学,2003.
[35]苏为华,多指标综合评价理论与方法问题研究,博士学位论文,厦门大学,2000
[36]段爱媛,在港口水域船舶交通安全管理中综合安全评估(FSA)的应用研究,博士学位论文,华中科技大学,2007
[37]曾华岚.影响海上交通安全的人为因素分析与评价,硕士学位论文,大连海事大学,2000
[38]张锦朋.海上交通事故中的人为因素分析.上海海运学院学报,1998,(3)
[39]翁跃宗,吴兆麟.厦门港及附近水域船舶交通安全评价,硕士学位论文,大连海事大学,2000.
[40]Tony Rosqvist, Risto Tuominen. Qualification of Formal Safety Assessment:an exploratory study, Safety Science,2004,(42)
[41]邓聚龙.灰色理论基础,武汉华中科技大学出版社2003