我国地方政府投资决策风险规避研究
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摘要
随着城镇化推进,市场经济发展,地方政府投资项目与诸多领域的相关性不断加强,易产生“牵一发而动全身”的复杂效果,鉴于此对地方政府投资决策风险及其规避的研究就显得尤为重要。本文从决策主体、决策机制以及决策目标等方面分析我国地方政府在投资决策风险防控中存在的不足,应用利益相关者理论及层次分析法,研究地方政府投资决策风险的成因及其规避方法,为地方政府有效规避投资的决策风险提供理论方法。
首先,对国内外政府投资决策风险问题研究现状进行综述,给出了地方政府投资及其决策的相关概念,并对地方政府的投资范围做出动态的界定,奠定了本课题的理论基础。
其次,在描述我国地方政府现行投资决策制定流程的基础上,从投资决策参与者的利益多元化、投资决策体制和监管机制的不完善不健全、投资决策制定的环境与时机、法律责任虚置等几个方面分析了地方政府投资决策风险的形成原因。
再次,针对地方政府投资决策风险的形成原因,提出决策风险规避的一系列方法,利用利益相关者理论,构建地方政府投资项目核心利益生成机制,运用层次分析法,遴选决策参与者。同时将企业决策风险规避方法整合到地方政府投资决策风险规避机制建设中,进一步健全地方政府投资决策的风险规避机制。
最后,选取兴安盟乡镇公路建设项目作为实证分析的对象,将本文提出的地方政府决策风险规避方法应用到该实际问题中,验证文中提出方法的有效性和可行性。
With the urbanization and development of the market economy, local government investment projects have important influncation and "far-reaching" effect in various field .In this paper, from the decision-making mechanism, decision-making objectives of China's local governments to analyze the deficiencies in the aversion of risk in investment decision-making, Through the application of stakeholder theory and the analytic hierarch process to enhance the level of the main decision-making , and introduce some measures that used to hedge decision-making risks widely in Chinese enterprise, preventing and controlling the investment decision-making venture .
First, The article summarized the domestic and foreign government investment decision-making risk on the basis of the research, given the concepts of local government investment and the local government decision-making. Then define the local government investment decision-making features, that the local government investment decision-making features make the risk issue inevitable, laid a theoretical foundation.
Next, given the description of the local government investment decision-making risks on the basis of the following areas, where the investment risk of the formation of the reasons for the decision-making; the investment decision-making participants in the interests of diversity; investment decision-making system and monitoring mechanism is not sound; investment decision-making environment and the time.
Once more, according the analysis of the local government investment decision-making, put the formation of the reasons forward to avoid the risk of decision-making, and improve the decision-making mechanisms, meanwhile, introduce a creative way based on analysis of the stakeholders to build the core interests of the local government investment projects generating mechanism, combined with AHP selection to participate in decision-making. At the same time, enterprise applications will bring more scientific methods of risk aversion to the integration of the local government to avoid the risk of investment decision-making mechanisms, and improve the investment decision-making mechanism of risk aversion.
Finally, select the Xing' an League rural road construction projects as the object of empirical analysis, the measures that the issue raised local government use to hedging decision-making risk will be applied to the decision-making, and enhance the study of the problem persuading.
首先,对国内外政府投资决策风险问题研究现状进行综述,给出了地方政府投资及其决策的相关概念,并对地方政府的投资范围做出动态的界定,奠定了本课题的理论基础。
其次,在描述我国地方政府现行投资决策制定流程的基础上,从投资决策参与者的利益多元化、投资决策体制和监管机制的不完善不健全、投资决策制定的环境与时机、法律责任虚置等几个方面分析了地方政府投资决策风险的形成原因。
再次,针对地方政府投资决策风险的形成原因,提出决策风险规避的一系列方法,利用利益相关者理论,构建地方政府投资项目核心利益生成机制,运用层次分析法,遴选决策参与者。同时将企业决策风险规避方法整合到地方政府投资决策风险规避机制建设中,进一步健全地方政府投资决策的风险规避机制。
最后,选取兴安盟乡镇公路建设项目作为实证分析的对象,将本文提出的地方政府决策风险规避方法应用到该实际问题中,验证文中提出方法的有效性和可行性。
With the urbanization and development of the market economy, local government investment projects have important influncation and "far-reaching" effect in various field .In this paper, from the decision-making mechanism, decision-making objectives of China's local governments to analyze the deficiencies in the aversion of risk in investment decision-making, Through the application of stakeholder theory and the analytic hierarch process to enhance the level of the main decision-making , and introduce some measures that used to hedge decision-making risks widely in Chinese enterprise, preventing and controlling the investment decision-making venture .
First, The article summarized the domestic and foreign government investment decision-making risk on the basis of the research, given the concepts of local government investment and the local government decision-making. Then define the local government investment decision-making features, that the local government investment decision-making features make the risk issue inevitable, laid a theoretical foundation.
Next, given the description of the local government investment decision-making risks on the basis of the following areas, where the investment risk of the formation of the reasons for the decision-making; the investment decision-making participants in the interests of diversity; investment decision-making system and monitoring mechanism is not sound; investment decision-making environment and the time.
Once more, according the analysis of the local government investment decision-making, put the formation of the reasons forward to avoid the risk of decision-making, and improve the decision-making mechanisms, meanwhile, introduce a creative way based on analysis of the stakeholders to build the core interests of the local government investment projects generating mechanism, combined with AHP selection to participate in decision-making. At the same time, enterprise applications will bring more scientific methods of risk aversion to the integration of the local government to avoid the risk of investment decision-making mechanisms, and improve the investment decision-making mechanism of risk aversion.
Finally, select the Xing' an League rural road construction projects as the object of empirical analysis, the measures that the issue raised local government use to hedging decision-making risk will be applied to the decision-making, and enhance the study of the problem persuading.
引文
1东方凯.谁在阻止节约型社会的建立.发展,2005,(12):33-34
2约翰.梅纳德.凯恩斯.就业,利息和货币通论.北京:商务印书馆,2002:75-83
3 R.W.Tresch. Public Finance. Business Publication Inc.,1981:574-576
4 A.Breton. A Theory of Government Grants. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1995,(31):175-187
5 Tumer,J.R, Anne Keegan.The Versatile Projectbased Organization:Governmance and Operational Control.European Management Jounal,1999,71(1):296-309
6 R.M.Blank.When can Public Policy Make Rely on Private Market? The Effictive Provision of Social Services.Economic Jounal,2000,110(3):267-274
7 Tumer.J.R, Anne Keegan. Mechanism of Govenance in the Project-based Organization:Roles of the Broker and Steward.European Management Jounal,2001,19(3):254-267
8 Winch.G.M,Governing the Project Process:a Conceptual Framework.Construction Management and Economics,2001,(19):799-808
9 J.Rodney Tumer.on the Nature of the Project as a Temporary Organization. International Jounal of Project Management,2003,(21):1-8
10 The Private Finance Initiative.The Scottish Parlianment,1999
11 Construction Industy Council ,Coustructors key guide to PFI,1998
12 Broadbent.J, Laughlin R.Control and legitim in government accountability processes:private finance initiative in the UK.Critical Perspective on Accounting,2003,14:23-18
13 Ventris.Curtis. Modern thought and bureaucracy. Public Administation Review,1993,53(1):575-580
14 Charles E .Lindblom. The intelligence of democracy: decision making through mutual adjustment.NewYork:Free Press,1965:38-44
15 Buchanan,J.M. and R.E. Wagner. Democracy in Deficit:The Political Legacy of LordKeynes.New York:Academic Press,1977:55-60
16 Blais,Andre and Dion, Stephane.Eds.The budget-maximizing bureaucrat: Appraisals and evidence.Pittsburgh:University of Pittsburgh Press,1991:36-38
17 Niskanen,W. Bureaucracy and respectative government.chicago:Aldine,1971:44-46
18 Sherry Arnstein. A Lander of Citizen Participation.Journal of American Institute of Planners,1969,(35):4
19 Chambers Robert. Participatory Rural Development (PRD):analysis of experience. World Development,1994,(22):9
20 Friedmina,John. Empowerment:The Polities of Alternative Development.1994
21牛炳昆,于香梅.政府投资项目风险分析和风险防范.集团经济研究,2006,(12):16
22张汉亚,张欣宁.政府该管什么.赣州:江西人民出版社,2005:39-41
23李彬.透支的权力—地方政府决策失误的深层观察.武汉:湖北人民出版社,2003:86-90
24欧阳逸飞.问题官员.北京:人民日报出版社,2004:45-48
25尹贻林,郝建新.政府投资项目管理体制改革研究与实践.工程造价管理,2002,(4):11-16
26郭长强.政府投资工程管理体制改革探析.体制改革,2004,(1):58-60
27滕清安.我国政府投资项目管理方式改革的建议与思考.南方冶金学院学报,2003,(3):19-21
28陈赟.浅论政府投资项目监督.兰州学刊,2006,(5):15-25
29黄霆,赵振宇等.我国政府投资项目管理现状分析.建筑经济,2005,(1):16-20
30宏观经济研究院《政府投资的管理体制研究》课题组.完善政府投资管理体制的总体构想.宏观经济研究,2005,(2):40-42
31徐珑.中国公共投资问题研究.[财政部财政科学研究所博士学位论文],2004:29
32曾辛.我国地方政府投资行为研究.[复旦大学硕士学位论文],2005:27-30
33蒲晓岗.政府投资项目决策特征.中国工程咨询,2004,(12):7-8
34李红星,张洪德.对政府投资决策科学性的研究分析.学术交流,2005,(12): 108-110
35黄锡远.政府投资的行为决策现状分析.投资理财,2007,(8):5-6
36祁玉清.防范政府投资项目的决策风险.宏观经济管理.2006,(7):60-62
37尹贻林,闫孝砚.政府投资项目管理模式研究.天津:南开大学出版社,2002:56
38王早生.改革政府投资工程建设势在必行.建设监理,2003,(3):22
39吴祥明.公共投资项目管理的实践和探索.上海交通大学学报,2002,(8):15
40陈赟,余朝阳等.公共工程项目非合理质量与地方政府行为.湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2003(3):12
41郭长强.政府投资工程管理体制改革探析.城乡建设,2004,(1):8
42马骏.中国省级预算中的政策过程与预算过程:来自两省的调查.经济社会体制比较,2005,(5):67
43廖雄军.改革与完善政府决策机制的探讨.成都行政学院学报,2003,(4):14
44杨雪芳.国家投资体制改革与项目可行性研究问题探析.郑州大学学报(哲学社会科学),2005,(7):73-76
45唐云锋.公共选择理论视角下地方债务的成因分析.财经论丛,2005,(1):40-44
46段文斌等.制度经济学.天津:南开大学出版社,2003:24
47杨马林.三峡工程:决策科学化民主化的典范.决策与信息,2005,(12):72-75
48余伦.利益相关者合作逻辑下的资本机构选择.科技进步与对策,2003,(11) :119-121
49 Freeman,R.E.&Even.W.M.Corporate governmence: A Stakeholder Interpration. Journal of Behavior Economics,1990,(19):337-359
50 Clarkson,M.A Stakeholder Framework for Analysing and Evaluationg Corporate Social Performance.Academy of Management Review.1995,(20):92-117
51 Charkham,J.Corporate governmence:Lesson from abroad.Uropean Business Journal,1992,(4):8-12
52安东尼.唐斯.官僚制内幕.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006:229
53 Niskanen,W.Bureaucracy and respectative government.chicago:Aldine,1971:44-46
54 Dunlevy,P.Democracy,bureaucracy and public choice.New York:Prentice Hall,1992:181-183
55谢琳琳,何清华等.公共选择理论在完善我国政府投资项目决策机制中的应用.基建优化,2007,(2):6-8
56马骏.中国省级预算中的政策过程与预算过程:来自两省的调查.经济社会体制比较,2005,(5):67
57 Rand Corporation. Rand about-Rand staff .Rand review,2007,(12):3
58 R.K Mitchell, B.R.Agle, D.J.Wood.Toward a Theory of stakeholder Identification and Salience:Defining the Principle of Who and What Really Counts.Academy of Management Review,1997:853—887
59田旭,张传庆.关于建立政府投资决策责任追究机制的几点思考.甘肃农业,2006,(9):16
60普永贵.近年来政府合作问题研究的回顾与展望.云南行政学院学报,2008,(2):31-33
2约翰.梅纳德.凯恩斯.就业,利息和货币通论.北京:商务印书馆,2002:75-83
3 R.W.Tresch. Public Finance. Business Publication Inc.,1981:574-576
4 A.Breton. A Theory of Government Grants. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1995,(31):175-187
5 Tumer,J.R, Anne Keegan.The Versatile Projectbased Organization:Governmance and Operational Control.European Management Jounal,1999,71(1):296-309
6 R.M.Blank.When can Public Policy Make Rely on Private Market? The Effictive Provision of Social Services.Economic Jounal,2000,110(3):267-274
7 Tumer.J.R, Anne Keegan. Mechanism of Govenance in the Project-based Organization:Roles of the Broker and Steward.European Management Jounal,2001,19(3):254-267
8 Winch.G.M,Governing the Project Process:a Conceptual Framework.Construction Management and Economics,2001,(19):799-808
9 J.Rodney Tumer.on the Nature of the Project as a Temporary Organization. International Jounal of Project Management,2003,(21):1-8
10 The Private Finance Initiative.The Scottish Parlianment,1999
11 Construction Industy Council ,Coustructors key guide to PFI,1998
12 Broadbent.J, Laughlin R.Control and legitim in government accountability processes:private finance initiative in the UK.Critical Perspective on Accounting,2003,14:23-18
13 Ventris.Curtis. Modern thought and bureaucracy. Public Administation Review,1993,53(1):575-580
14 Charles E .Lindblom. The intelligence of democracy: decision making through mutual adjustment.NewYork:Free Press,1965:38-44
15 Buchanan,J.M. and R.E. Wagner. Democracy in Deficit:The Political Legacy of LordKeynes.New York:Academic Press,1977:55-60
16 Blais,Andre and Dion, Stephane.Eds.The budget-maximizing bureaucrat: Appraisals and evidence.Pittsburgh:University of Pittsburgh Press,1991:36-38
17 Niskanen,W. Bureaucracy and respectative government.chicago:Aldine,1971:44-46
18 Sherry Arnstein. A Lander of Citizen Participation.Journal of American Institute of Planners,1969,(35):4
19 Chambers Robert. Participatory Rural Development (PRD):analysis of experience. World Development,1994,(22):9
20 Friedmina,John. Empowerment:The Polities of Alternative Development.1994
21牛炳昆,于香梅.政府投资项目风险分析和风险防范.集团经济研究,2006,(12):16
22张汉亚,张欣宁.政府该管什么.赣州:江西人民出版社,2005:39-41
23李彬.透支的权力—地方政府决策失误的深层观察.武汉:湖北人民出版社,2003:86-90
24欧阳逸飞.问题官员.北京:人民日报出版社,2004:45-48
25尹贻林,郝建新.政府投资项目管理体制改革研究与实践.工程造价管理,2002,(4):11-16
26郭长强.政府投资工程管理体制改革探析.体制改革,2004,(1):58-60
27滕清安.我国政府投资项目管理方式改革的建议与思考.南方冶金学院学报,2003,(3):19-21
28陈赟.浅论政府投资项目监督.兰州学刊,2006,(5):15-25
29黄霆,赵振宇等.我国政府投资项目管理现状分析.建筑经济,2005,(1):16-20
30宏观经济研究院《政府投资的管理体制研究》课题组.完善政府投资管理体制的总体构想.宏观经济研究,2005,(2):40-42
31徐珑.中国公共投资问题研究.[财政部财政科学研究所博士学位论文],2004:29
32曾辛.我国地方政府投资行为研究.[复旦大学硕士学位论文],2005:27-30
33蒲晓岗.政府投资项目决策特征.中国工程咨询,2004,(12):7-8
34李红星,张洪德.对政府投资决策科学性的研究分析.学术交流,2005,(12): 108-110
35黄锡远.政府投资的行为决策现状分析.投资理财,2007,(8):5-6
36祁玉清.防范政府投资项目的决策风险.宏观经济管理.2006,(7):60-62
37尹贻林,闫孝砚.政府投资项目管理模式研究.天津:南开大学出版社,2002:56
38王早生.改革政府投资工程建设势在必行.建设监理,2003,(3):22
39吴祥明.公共投资项目管理的实践和探索.上海交通大学学报,2002,(8):15
40陈赟,余朝阳等.公共工程项目非合理质量与地方政府行为.湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2003(3):12
41郭长强.政府投资工程管理体制改革探析.城乡建设,2004,(1):8
42马骏.中国省级预算中的政策过程与预算过程:来自两省的调查.经济社会体制比较,2005,(5):67
43廖雄军.改革与完善政府决策机制的探讨.成都行政学院学报,2003,(4):14
44杨雪芳.国家投资体制改革与项目可行性研究问题探析.郑州大学学报(哲学社会科学),2005,(7):73-76
45唐云锋.公共选择理论视角下地方债务的成因分析.财经论丛,2005,(1):40-44
46段文斌等.制度经济学.天津:南开大学出版社,2003:24
47杨马林.三峡工程:决策科学化民主化的典范.决策与信息,2005,(12):72-75
48余伦.利益相关者合作逻辑下的资本机构选择.科技进步与对策,2003,(11) :119-121
49 Freeman,R.E.&Even.W.M.Corporate governmence: A Stakeholder Interpration. Journal of Behavior Economics,1990,(19):337-359
50 Clarkson,M.A Stakeholder Framework for Analysing and Evaluationg Corporate Social Performance.Academy of Management Review.1995,(20):92-117
51 Charkham,J.Corporate governmence:Lesson from abroad.Uropean Business Journal,1992,(4):8-12
52安东尼.唐斯.官僚制内幕.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006:229
53 Niskanen,W.Bureaucracy and respectative government.chicago:Aldine,1971:44-46
54 Dunlevy,P.Democracy,bureaucracy and public choice.New York:Prentice Hall,1992:181-183
55谢琳琳,何清华等.公共选择理论在完善我国政府投资项目决策机制中的应用.基建优化,2007,(2):6-8
56马骏.中国省级预算中的政策过程与预算过程:来自两省的调查.经济社会体制比较,2005,(5):67
57 Rand Corporation. Rand about-Rand staff .Rand review,2007,(12):3
58 R.K Mitchell, B.R.Agle, D.J.Wood.Toward a Theory of stakeholder Identification and Salience:Defining the Principle of Who and What Really Counts.Academy of Management Review,1997:853—887
59田旭,张传庆.关于建立政府投资决策责任追究机制的几点思考.甘肃农业,2006,(9):16
60普永贵.近年来政府合作问题研究的回顾与展望.云南行政学院学报,2008,(2):31-33