国债规模的研究
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摘要
国债是弥补财政赤字的工具,国债规模是国债研究领域的重要课题。国债规模是否处于适度水平以及如何确定、优化国债规模,对充分发挥赤字财政在宏观经济运行中的调节作用、积极防范财政风险和协调好财政政策与货币政策等具有十分重要的意义。本文从赤字财政的可持续性、赤字财政对经济增长的影响、国债规模的均衡数量及优化和国债的金融特性等四个方面,依据宏观经济理论和计量经济技术比较系统地探讨了国债规模。
赤字财政可持续反映出政府财政收支之间具有长期的均衡关系,国债规模仍有扩张空间,赤字财政可持续性的研究着重检验政府是否满足自身的预算约束。本文全面介绍了当前检验赤字财政可持续的计量经济技术模型: I (d)模型、Bohn(1998)模型和Johansen模型,并以我国的财政收支数据为样本,实证了我国赤字财政的可持续性。
国债规模在一定限度内,赤字财政具有凯恩斯效应;国债规模超出了一定限度,赤字财政将具有反凯恩斯效应。这个观点已获得了广泛认同。本文运用SVAR模型探讨了赤字财政对经济增长的影响,认为赤字财政对经济增长的影响应通过财政收支对经济增长的影响来体现。也就是说,如果减税、增支的财政政策促进了经济增长,则赤字财政政策是可行的,国债规模是适度的;反之,则赤字财政政策不可行,国债规模必定超出了临界值。本文采用中日两国相关的经济数据,通过产出关于财政收入、财政支出和国债的冲击响应以及产出的方差分解,判断赤字财政对经济增长的影响。研究发现我国的赤字财政政策具有凯恩斯效应,而日本的赤字财政政策具有反凯恩斯效应。
国债规模的均衡数量及优化是国债规模研究领域必须直接回答的问题,本文基于国外学者的研究,依据宏观经济学理论对已有的模型进行了拓展。一是基于世代交叠模型,在柯布─道格拉斯产出函数中引入生产性公共资本变量,假设个人追求效用最大化,企业在完全竞争条件下组织生产,政府执行赤字预算,技术和知识的增长速度已知,获得了均衡状态下求解国债规模的解析式,并在此基础上结合经济的实际运行情况,提出了国债规模的优化路径。二是基于无限期界模型,在产出函数中引入生产性公共资本和私人资本替代弹性的变量,探讨了生产性公共资本、私人资本、国债和经济增长之间的均衡关系。
国债作为金融工具主要体现为中央银行以国债为媒介进行公开市场业务、商业银行等金融机构以国债为媒介进行信用创造,因此有必要围绕国债协调好财政政策与货币政策。关于国债的金融特性,本文从通货膨胀和国债市场交易行为等角度探讨了国债规模,一是根据我国的经济数据,建立了国债规模与通货膨胀率之间的数量关系;二是通过国债利率敏感性分析探讨了我国国债市场是否具有发现基准利率的功能。国债是联结财政政策与货币政策的交汇点,根据国债的金融特性研究国债规模对于协调好财政政策与货币政策极其必要。
随着认识角度的不同,国债规模表现出不一致的适度水平。本文认为国债首先体现为财政功能,其次是发挥着金融功能,因此主张按照国债反向调节宏观经济波动的原则优化国债规模,而不是根据发展债券市场的需要看待国债规模。本文在研究国债规模的同时,简要地论述了国债的挤出效应和赤字财政风险。
Public debt is an instrument of offsetting fiscal deficit. The size of public debt is an important question for studying in the field of public debt. Some questions, such as the size of public debt is at the moderate level or not, how to ascertain and optimize the size of public debt, have very important effects on sufficiently exerting regulation of deficit financing on macroeconomics, actively keeping fiscal risk away, effectively correspond finance and monetary policies. The dissertation probes into the size of public debt in the four aspects of sustainability of deficit financing, the effect of deficit financing on economic growth, equilibrium quantity of the size of public debt and its optimization, monetary characteristics of public debt by the macroeconomic theory and econometric methods.
Sustainability of deficit financing reflects that there is long-term equilibrium between government revenues and expenditures,and the size of public debt has still expand room. The study on Sustainability of deficit financing put emphasis upon testing government satisfies its budget constraints or not. The dissertation introduces currently econometric models of testing sustainability of deficit financing, which are I(d) model, Bohn(1998) model and Johansen model, and empirically analyses China’s sustainability of deficit financing in the sample of china’s revenues and expenditures.
Deficit financing has Keynes’effect when the size of public debt is less than the critical level. On the contrary, deficit financing has anti-Keynes’effect when the size of public debt exceeds the critical level. The opinion has been widely accepted. The dissertation discusses the effect of deficit financing on economic growth by SVAR model, and considers that the effect of deficit financing on economic growth should be incarnated via the effect of government revenues and expenditures on economic growth. That is to say, if finance policy of decreasing revenues and increasing expenditures accelerates economic growth, deficit financing is effective and the size of public debt is moderate. Contrarily, deficit financing is not feasible and the size of public debt must be beyond the critical level. Using the pertinent data from the China and the Japan, the dissertation estimates the effects of two countries’deficit financing on economic growth through the output’s impulses responses to revenues shock and government spending shock, as well as the output’s variance decomposition. The results indicate that the deficit financing policy has the Keynesian effects in China, but anti-Keynesian effects in Japan.
The equilibrium quantity of public debt and its optimization is a question to be directly answered in the studying field of public debt. The dissertation develops the existing models by macroeconomic theory in the ground of overseas literatures. The first, basing on OLG model, introducing the variable of productively public capital in the Cobb-Douglas function, assuming that an individual pursues the maximal utility, a firm behaves competitively, and a government implements the deficit budget, the growth rates of technology and knowledge are certain, the dissertation gets the analytical expression to calculate the size of public debt in the state of equilibrium, and puts forward the optimal path of size of public debt in consider of practical economics. The second, basing on infinite-horizon model, introducing the variable of elasticity of substitution between productively public capital and private capital in output function, the dissertation probes into the equilibrium relation among productively public capital, private capital, public debt and economic growth.
The monetary characteristic of public debt is mostly embodied that the center bank performs open market operations by public debt, and the monetary organizations, such as the commercial bank, perform credit creation by public debt. So, it is necessary of corresponding finance and monetary policies through the medium of public debt. Concerning the monetary characteristic of public debt, the dissertation discusses separately the size of public debt in the point of inflation and dealing for public debt. The first, the quantity relation is established between the size of public debt and the inflation rate according to China’s pertinent data. The second, the dissertation discusses if China’s market of public debt can find the interest rate as benchmark through the sensitivity analysis of public debt on interest rate. Public debt is a medium of coupling the finance and monetary policies. It is very necessary of corresponding the finance and monetary policies that the size of public debt is discussed according to the monetary characteristic of public debt.
With different attitudes of mind, the size of public debt has differently moderate level. The dissertation thinks that public debt incarnates finance efficacy firstly, and exerts monetary function secondly. Hence the size of public debt should be optimized by principle of reversed regulation of public debt on economic fluctuation, not in the need of developing bond markets. The dissertation discusses briefly the effect of crowding out of public debt and the risk of deficit financing while the size of public debt is discussed.
赤字财政可持续反映出政府财政收支之间具有长期的均衡关系,国债规模仍有扩张空间,赤字财政可持续性的研究着重检验政府是否满足自身的预算约束。本文全面介绍了当前检验赤字财政可持续的计量经济技术模型: I (d)模型、Bohn(1998)模型和Johansen模型,并以我国的财政收支数据为样本,实证了我国赤字财政的可持续性。
国债规模在一定限度内,赤字财政具有凯恩斯效应;国债规模超出了一定限度,赤字财政将具有反凯恩斯效应。这个观点已获得了广泛认同。本文运用SVAR模型探讨了赤字财政对经济增长的影响,认为赤字财政对经济增长的影响应通过财政收支对经济增长的影响来体现。也就是说,如果减税、增支的财政政策促进了经济增长,则赤字财政政策是可行的,国债规模是适度的;反之,则赤字财政政策不可行,国债规模必定超出了临界值。本文采用中日两国相关的经济数据,通过产出关于财政收入、财政支出和国债的冲击响应以及产出的方差分解,判断赤字财政对经济增长的影响。研究发现我国的赤字财政政策具有凯恩斯效应,而日本的赤字财政政策具有反凯恩斯效应。
国债规模的均衡数量及优化是国债规模研究领域必须直接回答的问题,本文基于国外学者的研究,依据宏观经济学理论对已有的模型进行了拓展。一是基于世代交叠模型,在柯布─道格拉斯产出函数中引入生产性公共资本变量,假设个人追求效用最大化,企业在完全竞争条件下组织生产,政府执行赤字预算,技术和知识的增长速度已知,获得了均衡状态下求解国债规模的解析式,并在此基础上结合经济的实际运行情况,提出了国债规模的优化路径。二是基于无限期界模型,在产出函数中引入生产性公共资本和私人资本替代弹性的变量,探讨了生产性公共资本、私人资本、国债和经济增长之间的均衡关系。
国债作为金融工具主要体现为中央银行以国债为媒介进行公开市场业务、商业银行等金融机构以国债为媒介进行信用创造,因此有必要围绕国债协调好财政政策与货币政策。关于国债的金融特性,本文从通货膨胀和国债市场交易行为等角度探讨了国债规模,一是根据我国的经济数据,建立了国债规模与通货膨胀率之间的数量关系;二是通过国债利率敏感性分析探讨了我国国债市场是否具有发现基准利率的功能。国债是联结财政政策与货币政策的交汇点,根据国债的金融特性研究国债规模对于协调好财政政策与货币政策极其必要。
随着认识角度的不同,国债规模表现出不一致的适度水平。本文认为国债首先体现为财政功能,其次是发挥着金融功能,因此主张按照国债反向调节宏观经济波动的原则优化国债规模,而不是根据发展债券市场的需要看待国债规模。本文在研究国债规模的同时,简要地论述了国债的挤出效应和赤字财政风险。
Public debt is an instrument of offsetting fiscal deficit. The size of public debt is an important question for studying in the field of public debt. Some questions, such as the size of public debt is at the moderate level or not, how to ascertain and optimize the size of public debt, have very important effects on sufficiently exerting regulation of deficit financing on macroeconomics, actively keeping fiscal risk away, effectively correspond finance and monetary policies. The dissertation probes into the size of public debt in the four aspects of sustainability of deficit financing, the effect of deficit financing on economic growth, equilibrium quantity of the size of public debt and its optimization, monetary characteristics of public debt by the macroeconomic theory and econometric methods.
Sustainability of deficit financing reflects that there is long-term equilibrium between government revenues and expenditures,and the size of public debt has still expand room. The study on Sustainability of deficit financing put emphasis upon testing government satisfies its budget constraints or not. The dissertation introduces currently econometric models of testing sustainability of deficit financing, which are I(d) model, Bohn(1998) model and Johansen model, and empirically analyses China’s sustainability of deficit financing in the sample of china’s revenues and expenditures.
Deficit financing has Keynes’effect when the size of public debt is less than the critical level. On the contrary, deficit financing has anti-Keynes’effect when the size of public debt exceeds the critical level. The opinion has been widely accepted. The dissertation discusses the effect of deficit financing on economic growth by SVAR model, and considers that the effect of deficit financing on economic growth should be incarnated via the effect of government revenues and expenditures on economic growth. That is to say, if finance policy of decreasing revenues and increasing expenditures accelerates economic growth, deficit financing is effective and the size of public debt is moderate. Contrarily, deficit financing is not feasible and the size of public debt must be beyond the critical level. Using the pertinent data from the China and the Japan, the dissertation estimates the effects of two countries’deficit financing on economic growth through the output’s impulses responses to revenues shock and government spending shock, as well as the output’s variance decomposition. The results indicate that the deficit financing policy has the Keynesian effects in China, but anti-Keynesian effects in Japan.
The equilibrium quantity of public debt and its optimization is a question to be directly answered in the studying field of public debt. The dissertation develops the existing models by macroeconomic theory in the ground of overseas literatures. The first, basing on OLG model, introducing the variable of productively public capital in the Cobb-Douglas function, assuming that an individual pursues the maximal utility, a firm behaves competitively, and a government implements the deficit budget, the growth rates of technology and knowledge are certain, the dissertation gets the analytical expression to calculate the size of public debt in the state of equilibrium, and puts forward the optimal path of size of public debt in consider of practical economics. The second, basing on infinite-horizon model, introducing the variable of elasticity of substitution between productively public capital and private capital in output function, the dissertation probes into the equilibrium relation among productively public capital, private capital, public debt and economic growth.
The monetary characteristic of public debt is mostly embodied that the center bank performs open market operations by public debt, and the monetary organizations, such as the commercial bank, perform credit creation by public debt. So, it is necessary of corresponding finance and monetary policies through the medium of public debt. Concerning the monetary characteristic of public debt, the dissertation discusses separately the size of public debt in the point of inflation and dealing for public debt. The first, the quantity relation is established between the size of public debt and the inflation rate according to China’s pertinent data. The second, the dissertation discusses if China’s market of public debt can find the interest rate as benchmark through the sensitivity analysis of public debt on interest rate. Public debt is a medium of coupling the finance and monetary policies. It is very necessary of corresponding the finance and monetary policies that the size of public debt is discussed according to the monetary characteristic of public debt.
With different attitudes of mind, the size of public debt has differently moderate level. The dissertation thinks that public debt incarnates finance efficacy firstly, and exerts monetary function secondly. Hence the size of public debt should be optimized by principle of reversed regulation of public debt on economic fluctuation, not in the need of developing bond markets. The dissertation discusses briefly the effect of crowding out of public debt and the risk of deficit financing while the size of public debt is discussed.
引文
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[87] Sabaté, M., Gadea, M.D., Escario, R., 2006. Does fiscal policy influence monetary policy? The case of Spain, 1874-1935. Explorations in Economic History 43, 309-331.
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