基于创新扩散理论的品牌生命周期研究
|
摘要
品牌是企业在市场中最稳定的营运要素和经营核心,企业间的竞争归根到底是品牌的竞争。企业必须把握品牌生命周期的发展规律才能有效地指导品牌营销,从而提升品牌竞争力乃至实现品牌永续经营。因此,如何强化品牌生命周期管理是营销学界和品牌经营者普遍关注的热点。虽然不少学者对品牌生命周期问题进行探讨,但总体上,该问题仍处于初级研究阶段,品牌生命周期形成机理,品牌生命周期过程中的扩散现象,品牌生命周期的管理与控制等研究均未有公认成果出现。
本文在研究创新扩散理论及品牌扩散研究的基础上,结合品牌营销相关理论,从理论上探讨品牌在其生命周期过程中的扩散规律,提出了基于创新扩散理论的品牌生命周期形成机理：结合品牌市场特征,系统的提出了无重复购买耐用品品牌、重复购买耐用品品牌、快速消费品品牌生命周期系列模型,采用相关品牌数据进行了深入的理论与实证研究：依据研究成果设计了模型参数动态调节机制,指导企业的品牌生命周期管理与品牌营销实践。本研究不但丰富了创新扩散理论,而且对品牌营销理论与实践具有较高的指导意义和应用价值。
本文第一章简要介绍本研究的背景、目标、内容和技术路线等。
第二章详尽论述了创新扩散理论以及基于Bass模型的品牌扩散模型的研究进展；依据是否考虑了重复购买因素将品牌扩散模型分为品牌首次购买模型和品牌尝试一重复购买模型,并对两类模型在放宽Bass模型限制性假设方面进行了归纳和比较。
第三章是品牌生命周期形成机理研究及建模思考。通过品牌相关概念的辨析提出品牌生命周期与产品生命周期及品牌的相关特征协同演化的观点,并从创新扩散理论的视角出发,从理论上探讨品牌在其生命周期过程中的扩散规律,提出了基于创新扩散理论的品牌生命周期形成机理,并从基本假设和影响因素分析两个方面为品牌生命周期模型的构建做了准备工作。
第四章构建了品牌生命周期系列模型。基于创新扩散理论,依据品牌的市场地位和特征,考虑品牌产品的重复购买因素,系统地提出了：(1)无重复购买耐用品品牌的垄断品牌、寡头品牌和竞争品牌生命周期模型以及竞争品牌生命周期一般模型；(2)重复购买耐用品品牌的垄断品牌、寡头品牌和竞争品牌生命周期模型；(3)快速消费品品牌生命周期模型；最后,对品牌生命周期模型的参数估计方法进行了探讨和比较。
第五章是品牌生命周期系列模型的实证研究。分别以中国移动通信行业品牌数据对无重复购买耐用品品牌的垄断品牌、寡头品牌及竞争品牌生命周期模型进行了验证：以构造数据对重复购买耐用品品牌的垄断品牌生命周期模型进行了验证;以烟草行业某卷烟品牌数据对快速消费品品牌生命周期模型进行了验证。实证研究证明,本文提出的品牌生命周期系列模型能够很好地解释品牌生命周期的形成过程,不仅有科学性而且有实际应用价值。
第六章是模型参数动态调节机制及品牌营销的应用研究。调节模型参数,探讨品牌生命周期的不同表现形态并分析其形成原因；结合参数的实际市场意义,探讨导致模型参数发生改变的各种因素(品牌营销变量)及其在品牌生命周期扩散活动中的作用,从而设计模型参数动态调节机制；将研究成果应用于实践,对品牌生命周期管理和品牌营销提出了指导性建议。
第七章总结了本论文的主要工作与结论、主要创新之处及今后的研究方向等。
Brand is the most stable key factor and kernel of operation to enterprises, and competition among enterprises is. in the final analysis, competition for brand. Only by grasping laws of the development of Brand Life Cycle(BLC). enterprises can effectively direct brand marketing, thus strengthening brand's competitive power for the permanent operation. The marketing circle and brand managers follow how to strengthen the management of Brand Life Cycle with great interest. Some researchers have approached the subject of Brand Life Cycle that is still on the prinary stage of reaearch. Yet few have been found about the form mechanisn of Brand Life Cycle.the diffusion in the process of Brand Life Cycle and the mamagement and control of Brand Life Cycle.etc.
Based on the research into the innovation diffusion theory and Brand Diffusion Model, the dissertation firstly probes theoretically into the laws of diffusion of brand in the process of its life circle in the light of the relevant theories in brand marketing, and then puts forward the completely new form mechanisn of Brand Life Cycle. Secondly, the dissertation, in accordance with the market characteristics of brand, systematically advances a whole set of models (Non-repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model. Repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model. Nondurable-consumer-goods Brand Life Cycle Model), and adopts the relevant statistics of brand to make further theoretical and empirical research. On the basis of the research, the dissertation constructs the dynamic adjusting mechanism.of model parameters in order to direct the management of Brand Life Cycle and the practice of brand marketing to enterprises. The research not only richens the innovation diffusion theory, but also has the higher instructive significance and applied value to the theory and practice of brand marketing.
In Chapter 1. the author brgins with the background and significance of this research, and the research objectives, research content, research methods and research roadmap of the dissertation is described.
Chapter 2 deals with the innovation diffusion theory and the main research progress on the brand diffusion model based on the Bass model, and divides the brand diffusion model into the brand first purchase model and the brand trial-repeat purchase model according to repeat purchase, and summarizes and compares these two models on the relaxation of restrictive assumptions of bass model.
Chapter 3 focuses on the research into the form mechanisn of Brand Life Cycle and the thought of model. By analyzing the relevant concepts of brand, the dissertation advances the standpoint of coordinated evolution among brand life cycle, product life cycle and the relevant characteristics of brand. According to the innovation diffusion theory, the author delves theoretically into the laws of diffusion of brand in the process of its life circle and proposes the new form mechanisn of Brand Life Cycle, thus preparing the construction of brand-life-cycle model from two aspects of basic hypotheses and factors analyses.
Chapter 4 deals with the construction of a whole set of models. on the basis of the innovation diffusion theory and considering the factor of brand-goods repeat purchase, the dissertation, in the light of the position and characteristics of brand on the marker, systematically puts forward, (1)Non-repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model(NrDBM), Monopolistic-brand Model, Oligopolistic-brand Model and the generalized model of competitive-brand diffusion; (2) Repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model, Repeat-purchase Monopolistic-brand Model, Repeat-purchase Oligopolistic-brand Model and; Repeat-purchase Competitive-brand Model; and (3) Nondurable-consumer-goods Brand Life Cycle Model(NdBM). The author discusses and compares the methods of parameters estimation of brand-life-cycle model in the end.
Chapter 5 is empirical recearch of a series of brand-life-cycle models. The author verifies Non-repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model, Monopolistic-brand Model, Oligopolistic-brand Model and Competitive-brand Model in China Mobile Industry in order to collect statistics to verify Repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model, and tests Nondurable-consumer-goods Brand Life Cycle Model with the statistics from a certain brand of Tabacco Industry. Empirical recearch proves that the series of brand-life-cycle models can fully explain the forming process of Brand Life Cycle, and they are scientific and valuable in practice.
Chapter 6 does practical research into the dynamic adjusting mechanism.of model parameters and brand marketing. The author adjusts model parameters, discusses the different formations of Brand Life Cycle and analyzes the causes.The dissertation, combining with the real market value, investigates the various factors causing the change of model parameters and their roles in the activities of brand-life-cycle diffusion in order to work out the dynamic adjusting mechanism.of model parameters. Appling the achievements in research to practice, the author provides some instrctive suggestions for the mamagement of brand life cycle and brand marketing.
Chapter 7 serves as a summary of the dissertation. The contributions and innovations are described. At last, the author suggests the directions for further study.
本文在研究创新扩散理论及品牌扩散研究的基础上,结合品牌营销相关理论,从理论上探讨品牌在其生命周期过程中的扩散规律,提出了基于创新扩散理论的品牌生命周期形成机理：结合品牌市场特征,系统的提出了无重复购买耐用品品牌、重复购买耐用品品牌、快速消费品品牌生命周期系列模型,采用相关品牌数据进行了深入的理论与实证研究：依据研究成果设计了模型参数动态调节机制,指导企业的品牌生命周期管理与品牌营销实践。本研究不但丰富了创新扩散理论,而且对品牌营销理论与实践具有较高的指导意义和应用价值。
本文第一章简要介绍本研究的背景、目标、内容和技术路线等。
第二章详尽论述了创新扩散理论以及基于Bass模型的品牌扩散模型的研究进展；依据是否考虑了重复购买因素将品牌扩散模型分为品牌首次购买模型和品牌尝试一重复购买模型,并对两类模型在放宽Bass模型限制性假设方面进行了归纳和比较。
第三章是品牌生命周期形成机理研究及建模思考。通过品牌相关概念的辨析提出品牌生命周期与产品生命周期及品牌的相关特征协同演化的观点,并从创新扩散理论的视角出发,从理论上探讨品牌在其生命周期过程中的扩散规律,提出了基于创新扩散理论的品牌生命周期形成机理,并从基本假设和影响因素分析两个方面为品牌生命周期模型的构建做了准备工作。
第四章构建了品牌生命周期系列模型。基于创新扩散理论,依据品牌的市场地位和特征,考虑品牌产品的重复购买因素,系统地提出了：(1)无重复购买耐用品品牌的垄断品牌、寡头品牌和竞争品牌生命周期模型以及竞争品牌生命周期一般模型；(2)重复购买耐用品品牌的垄断品牌、寡头品牌和竞争品牌生命周期模型；(3)快速消费品品牌生命周期模型；最后,对品牌生命周期模型的参数估计方法进行了探讨和比较。
第五章是品牌生命周期系列模型的实证研究。分别以中国移动通信行业品牌数据对无重复购买耐用品品牌的垄断品牌、寡头品牌及竞争品牌生命周期模型进行了验证：以构造数据对重复购买耐用品品牌的垄断品牌生命周期模型进行了验证;以烟草行业某卷烟品牌数据对快速消费品品牌生命周期模型进行了验证。实证研究证明,本文提出的品牌生命周期系列模型能够很好地解释品牌生命周期的形成过程,不仅有科学性而且有实际应用价值。
第六章是模型参数动态调节机制及品牌营销的应用研究。调节模型参数,探讨品牌生命周期的不同表现形态并分析其形成原因；结合参数的实际市场意义,探讨导致模型参数发生改变的各种因素(品牌营销变量)及其在品牌生命周期扩散活动中的作用,从而设计模型参数动态调节机制；将研究成果应用于实践,对品牌生命周期管理和品牌营销提出了指导性建议。
第七章总结了本论文的主要工作与结论、主要创新之处及今后的研究方向等。
Brand is the most stable key factor and kernel of operation to enterprises, and competition among enterprises is. in the final analysis, competition for brand. Only by grasping laws of the development of Brand Life Cycle(BLC). enterprises can effectively direct brand marketing, thus strengthening brand's competitive power for the permanent operation. The marketing circle and brand managers follow how to strengthen the management of Brand Life Cycle with great interest. Some researchers have approached the subject of Brand Life Cycle that is still on the prinary stage of reaearch. Yet few have been found about the form mechanisn of Brand Life Cycle.the diffusion in the process of Brand Life Cycle and the mamagement and control of Brand Life Cycle.etc.
Based on the research into the innovation diffusion theory and Brand Diffusion Model, the dissertation firstly probes theoretically into the laws of diffusion of brand in the process of its life circle in the light of the relevant theories in brand marketing, and then puts forward the completely new form mechanisn of Brand Life Cycle. Secondly, the dissertation, in accordance with the market characteristics of brand, systematically advances a whole set of models (Non-repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model. Repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model. Nondurable-consumer-goods Brand Life Cycle Model), and adopts the relevant statistics of brand to make further theoretical and empirical research. On the basis of the research, the dissertation constructs the dynamic adjusting mechanism.of model parameters in order to direct the management of Brand Life Cycle and the practice of brand marketing to enterprises. The research not only richens the innovation diffusion theory, but also has the higher instructive significance and applied value to the theory and practice of brand marketing.
In Chapter 1. the author brgins with the background and significance of this research, and the research objectives, research content, research methods and research roadmap of the dissertation is described.
Chapter 2 deals with the innovation diffusion theory and the main research progress on the brand diffusion model based on the Bass model, and divides the brand diffusion model into the brand first purchase model and the brand trial-repeat purchase model according to repeat purchase, and summarizes and compares these two models on the relaxation of restrictive assumptions of bass model.
Chapter 3 focuses on the research into the form mechanisn of Brand Life Cycle and the thought of model. By analyzing the relevant concepts of brand, the dissertation advances the standpoint of coordinated evolution among brand life cycle, product life cycle and the relevant characteristics of brand. According to the innovation diffusion theory, the author delves theoretically into the laws of diffusion of brand in the process of its life circle and proposes the new form mechanisn of Brand Life Cycle, thus preparing the construction of brand-life-cycle model from two aspects of basic hypotheses and factors analyses.
Chapter 4 deals with the construction of a whole set of models. on the basis of the innovation diffusion theory and considering the factor of brand-goods repeat purchase, the dissertation, in the light of the position and characteristics of brand on the marker, systematically puts forward, (1)Non-repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model(NrDBM), Monopolistic-brand Model, Oligopolistic-brand Model and the generalized model of competitive-brand diffusion; (2) Repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model, Repeat-purchase Monopolistic-brand Model, Repeat-purchase Oligopolistic-brand Model and; Repeat-purchase Competitive-brand Model; and (3) Nondurable-consumer-goods Brand Life Cycle Model(NdBM). The author discusses and compares the methods of parameters estimation of brand-life-cycle model in the end.
Chapter 5 is empirical recearch of a series of brand-life-cycle models. The author verifies Non-repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model, Monopolistic-brand Model, Oligopolistic-brand Model and Competitive-brand Model in China Mobile Industry in order to collect statistics to verify Repeat-purchase Durable-consumer-goods Brand-life-cycle Model, and tests Nondurable-consumer-goods Brand Life Cycle Model with the statistics from a certain brand of Tabacco Industry. Empirical recearch proves that the series of brand-life-cycle models can fully explain the forming process of Brand Life Cycle, and they are scientific and valuable in practice.
Chapter 6 does practical research into the dynamic adjusting mechanism.of model parameters and brand marketing. The author adjusts model parameters, discusses the different formations of Brand Life Cycle and analyzes the causes.The dissertation, combining with the real market value, investigates the various factors causing the change of model parameters and their roles in the activities of brand-life-cycle diffusion in order to work out the dynamic adjusting mechanism.of model parameters. Appling the achievements in research to practice, the author provides some instrctive suggestions for the mamagement of brand life cycle and brand marketing.
Chapter 7 serves as a summary of the dissertation. The contributions and innovations are described. At last, the author suggests the directions for further study.
引文
[1]Krishnan T.V., F.M. Bass and V. Kumar. Impact of a Late Entrant on the Diffusion of a New Product/Service. Journal of Marketing Research,2000,37:269-278.
[2]丁士海,韩之俊.基于Bass模型的品牌扩散模型研究综述.技术经济,2009,4：123-127.
[3]Chandrasekaran D.,G.J.Tellis. A Critical Review of Marketing Research on Diffusion of New Products. Review of Marketing Research,2007,3:39-80.
[4]丁士海,韩之俊.基于创新扩散的快速消费品品牌生命周期研究.技术经济,2008.7：39-42.
[5]Ding Shihai,Han Zhijun. Research on the Brand Diffusion of the China Mobile Communication Industry Based on the Innovation Diffusion Theory. International Journal of Business and Management,2009,2:36-40.
[6]丁士海,韩之俊.基于创新扩散的耐用品品牌扩散模型探析.软科学,2009,3：127-133.
[7]蔡莉.高技术扩散规律的研究.科学学与科学技术管理,1994,8：23-26.
[8]Tarde G. The Laws of Imitation.Holt Rinehart and Winston Inc,New York,1903, p382.
[9]Schumpeter J.A.(何畏等译).经济发展理论.北京：商务印书馆,1990.
[10]Schumpeter J.A. The Theory of Economic Development. Harvard University Press, Cambridge,1934.
[11]Brock W.A.,S.N. Durlauf. Interactions-based models, in:J. Heckman, E. Leamer(Eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, vol.5, North-Holland, Amsterdam,2001.
[12]王朋.不完全竞争条件下更新换代产品扩散模型研究[D].西南交通大学,2006.
[13]武春友,戴大双,苏敬勤.技术创新扩散.北京：化学工业出版社,1997.
[14]Alastair Robertson, Didier Soopramanien, Robert Fildes. Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services. Telecommunications Policy,2007, 31:265-275.
[15]Rogers E. M. Diffusion of Innovations. Copy-Right, By Free Perss,1983.
[16]Rogers E.M. Diffusion of Innovations.5th ed., FreePress, NewYork,2003.
[17]Seung-junYeon,Sang-hyun Park,Sang-wook Kim. A dynamic diffusion model for managing customer's expectation and satisfaction. Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2006,73:648-665.
[18]Roberts J.H., J.M. Lattin. Disaggregate-level diffusion models. InV. Mahajan, E.Muller,& Y.Wind(Eds.), New-product diffusion models (pp.207-236). Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000.
[19]Mahajan V.,E. Muller,F. M.Bass. Diffusion of new products:empirical generalizations and managerial uses.Mark Sci,1995.14(3):79-88.
[20]Van den Bulte C. S. Stremersch. Social contagion and income heterogeneity in new product diffusion:a meta-analytic test. Mark Sci,2004.23(4):530-544.
[21]Nigel Meade. Towhidul Islam. Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation —A 25-year review. International Journal of Forecasting,2006,22:519-545.
[22]Agarwal R.,B.L. Bayus. The market evolution and sales takeoff of product innovations. Management Science,2002.48:1024-1041.
[23]Srinivasan R.,G.L. Lilien, A. Rangaswamy. The emergence of dominant designs. Journal of Marketing.2006,70:1-17.
[24]Mahajan V.,E.Muller. Timing, diffusion, and substitution of successive generations of technological generations:The IBM mainframe case. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1996,51:109-132.
[25]Vanston L. Forecasts for internet/online access. In D.G. Loomis & L.D. Taylor (Eds.). Forecasting the internet:Understanding the explosive growth of data communications (pp.45-58).Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers.2002.
[26]Botelho A.& L.C. Ligia Costa Pinto. The diffusion of cellular phones in Portugal. Telecommunications Policy,2004.28(5-6):427-437.
[27]官建成.张西武.创新扩散模型的研究进展与展望.科学学与科学技术管理,1995.12:14-18.
[28]Bass F.M. A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management Science, 1969,15:215-227.
[29]Mahajan V. and R. Peterson. Innovation diffusion in a dynamic potential adopter population. Management Science,1978,24:1589-1597.
[30]Jeuland A. Parsimonious models of diffusion of innovation:Part A, derivations and comparison, working paper,Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.1981.
[31]Bass F.M., D.C. Jain, T.V. Krishnan. Modeling the marketing-mix influence in new-product diffusion, V. Mahajan, E. Muller, Y. Wind, eds. New Product Diffusion Models,2000,Springer,99-122.
[32]Goldenberg J., D.R. Lehmann, D.Mazursky. The idea itself and the circumstances of its emergence as predictors of new product success. Manage Sci,2001,47(1):69-84.
[33]Goldenberg J., B. Libai, E. Muller. Talk of the net work:a complex system look at the underlying process of word-of-mouth. Mark Lett,2001,12(3):211-223.
[34]盛亚.技术创新扩散与新产品营销.北京：中国发展出版社,2002.
[35]So Young Sohn, Byung Joo Ahn. Multi-generation diffusion model for economic assessment of new technology. Technological Forecasting Social Change,2003, 70:251-264.
[36]Peterson R. and V. Mahajan. Multi-poduct growth models.in J. Sheth (ed.), Research in Marketing-vol.1, CT:JAI Press, Greenwich,1978:201-231.
[37]Mahajan V., S. Sharma and R. Buzzell. Assessing the impact of competitive entry on market expansion and incumbent sales. Journal of Marketing,1993,57:39-52.
[38]Givon M., V. Mahajan and E. Muller. Software piracy:Estimation of lost sales and the impact on software diffusion. Journal of Marketing,1995,59:29-37.
[39]Givon M., V. Mahajan and E. Muller. Assessing the Relationship Between the User Based Market Share and Unit Sale-Based Market Share for Pirated Software Brands in Competitive Markets. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1997,55:131-144.
[40]Souza G. C. Product introduction decisions in a duopoly. European Journal of Operational Researchl,2004,52(3):745-757.
[41]Mahajan V. and R. Peterson. Integratng Time and Space in Technological Models. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1979,14:231-241.
[42]Dodson J. and E. Muller. Models of New Products Diffusion through Advertising and Worth-of-Mouth. Management Science,1978,24:1568-1578.
[43]Chen M.,Yu C. The optimal launch schedule for two new cannibalistic durables:A diffusion theory approach. Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research, 2002,19(1):1-15.
[44]Bhattacharya S., Krishnan V., Mahajan V. Operationalizing technology improvements in product development decision making. European Journal of Operational Research, 2003,149(1):102-130.
[45]Carrillo J. Industry clockspeed and the pace of new product development. Production and Operations Management,2005,14(2):125-141.
[46]Mallik S.,Chhajed D.Optimal temporal product introduction strategies under valuation changes and learning. European Journal of Operational Research,2006,172 (2):430-452.
[47]Lilien G. L., A. Rao and S. Kalish. Bayesian Estimation and Control of Detailing Effort in a Repeat-Purchase Diffusion Environment. Management Science, 1981,27:493-506.
[48]Jensen R. Adoption and Diffusion of an Innovation of Uncertain Profitability. Journal of Economic Theory,1982,27:182-193.
[49]Chatterjee R. and J. Eliashberg. The Innovation Diffusion Process in Heterogeneous Population:A Micromodeling Approach. Management Science,1990,36:1057-1079.
[50]Horsky D. and L. Simon. Advertising and the Diffusion of New Product. Marketing Science,1983,1:1-18.
[51]Kalish S. A New Product Adoption Model with Pricing. Advertising and Uncertainty. Management Science,1985,31:1569-1585.
[52]Dolan R., A. Jeuland. Expeience Curves and Dynamic Demand Models:Implications for Optimal Pricing Strategies. Journal of Marketing Research,1981,45:52-62.
[53]Eliashberg J. and A. Jeuland. The Impact of Competitive Entry in Developing Market Upon Dynamic Pricing Strategies. Marketing Science,1986.5:20-36.
[54]Krankel R.M., Duenyas I., Kupuscinski R. Timing successive product introductions with demand diffusion and stochastic technology improvement. Manufacturing and Service Operations Management.2006,8(2):119-135.
[55]Roberts J.H.& Lattin J.M. Disaggregate-level diffusion models. In V. Mahajan. E. Muller & Y. Wind(Eds.), New-product diffusion models (pp.207-236). Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000.
[56]Kapur P.K.,Bardhan Amit and Jha P.C. An alternative formulation of innovation diffusion model. In. Kapoor, V. K.(Ed.). Mathematics and Information Theory. Anamaya Publication, New Delhi.17-23.2004.
[57]Kapur P.K., V.B. Singh, Sameer Anand & V.S.S. Yadavalli. An innovation diffusion model incorporating chang in the adoption rate. Management Dynamics. 2007.16(1):34-41.
[58]Godes D., D. Mayzlin. Using online conversations to study word-of-mouth communication. Marketing Sci.2004,23:545-560.
[59]Dausuke Satoh. A discrete Bass model and its parameter Estimation. Journal of the Operations Research,2001,44(1):1-18.
[60]盛亚,吴健中.新产品市场扩散Bass模型族的研究.预测,1999.2：71-74
[61]Mahajan V., Muller E. and Bass F.M. New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing:A Review and Directions for Research. Jouranl of Marketing,1990,54:1-26.
[62]Jaakkola H. Modelling Diffusion.Tampere University of Technology, Pori. Publication Series A. Pori.1996 No.A15,79s.
[63]徐玖平.廖志高.技术创新扩散速度模型.管理学报,2004,1(3)：330-340.
[64]Rudolf Scitovski Marcel meler. Solving parameter estimation problem in new product diffusion models. Applied Mathematics and Computation,2002,127:45-63.
[65]Ping Teng Chang, Ching Hsiang Chang. A stage characteristic-preserving product life cycle Modeling. Mathematical and Computer Modeling,2003,37:1259-1269.
[66]Boswijk H.P., Franses P.H. On the econometrics of the Bass diffusio nmodel. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,2005,23:255-268.
[67]Mohle M. The coalescent in population models with time inhomogeneous Environ-ment. Stochastic Processes and Their Application,2002,97:199-227.
[68]Duk B Jun, Seon K Kim. Forecasting telecommunication service subscribers in sub-stitutive and competitive environments. International Journal of Forecasting.2002,18: 561-581.
[69]Elisa Montaguti, Sabine Kuester, Thomas S. Entry strategy for radical product inno-vations:a conceptual model and prepositional inventory. Entern. J. Research in Marketing,2002,19:21-42.
[70]Fildes R..Telecommunications demand forecasting-A review. International Journal of Forecasting,2002,18(4):489-522.
[71]Meade N.& Islam T..Forecasting the diffusion of innovations. In J. S. Armstrong(Ed.), Principles of forecasting.Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers.2001.
[72]何应龙,周宗放.国外新产品扩散模型研究的新进展.管理学报,2007,4(4)：529-536.
[73]洪后其.技术创新扩散研究[D].北京图书馆,1991.
[74]吴刚.技术创新扩散速度及其模型研究[D].北京图书馆,1996,1.
[75]陈欣荣.技术创新扩散的微观机理分析与模拟[D].北京图书馆,1996.
[76]施培公.模仿创新—中国企业技术创新的现实选择[D].北京图书馆,1997.
[77]盛亚.新产品市场扩散模型和最优营销战略研究[D].北京图书馆,1999.
[78]董景荣.技术创新过程管理中的中止决策与扩散模式研究[D].北京图书馆,1999.
[79]戴雪梅.中国技术创新机制理论与实证研究[D].北京图书馆,1999.
[80]徐玖平,胡民安,胡知能.联合收割机的市场扩散模型分析.系统工程理论方法应用,2000,9(2)：141-146.
[81]徐玖平,陈学志.旱育秧技术扩散模型与实证分析.管理工程学报,2001,15：14-19.
[82]胡宝民.技术创新扩散理论与系统演化模型研究[D].北京图书馆,1999.
[83]段茂盛.技术创新扩散的数理分析与模拟[D].北京图书馆,2000.
[84]胡民安.技术创新扩散的机理模型分析和实证分析[D].四川大学管理学院,2002.
[85]苏建旭.技术创新空间扩散机理研究.河北工业大学学报,2000,1.
[86]刘秀新.更替性技术创新扩散系统随机演化模型参数研究.河北工业大学, 2002(12).
[87]胡知能.创新产品市场扩散模型及其应用[D].四川大学.2005，4.
[88]杨敬辉.Bass模型及其两种扩展型的应用研究[D].大连理工大学.2005,9.
[89]Fourt L.A. and Woodlock J.W. Early Prediction of Market Success for New Grocery Products. Journal of Marketing,1960,25:31-38.
[90]Mansfield E. Technical Change and the Rate of Imitation. Econometrica,1961,29: 741-766.
[91]Chaojung Chen, Chihiro Watanabe. Diffusion, substitution and competition dynamism inside the ICT market:The case of Japan. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 2006,73:731-759.
[92]Beck Jonathan. The sales effect of word of mouth:A model for creative goods and estimates for novels. J. Cultural Econom.2007.31:5-23.
[93]Schmittlein D.C. and V. Mahajan. Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance. Marketing Science,1982,1:57-78.
[94]Bass F. M. Comments on "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables" The Bass Model. Management Science,2004,50(12):1833-1840.
[95]Christophe Van den Bulte, Yogesh V. Joshi. New Product Diffusion with Influentials and Imitators. Marketing Science.2007,26(3):400-421.
[96]Mahajan V., E. Muller and R. K. Srivastava. Using Innovation Diffusion Models to Develop Adopter Categories. Journal of Marketing Research, forthcoming,1990.
[97]Mahajan V., Muller E.& Wind Y. New-product diffusion models:From theory to practice. In V. Mahajan, E. Muller & Y. Wind(Eds.), New product diffusion models (pp.3-24). Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000.
[98]Mahajan V., E. Muller, Y. Wind. New-Product Diffusion Models:International Series in Quantitative Marketing, Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000.
[99]Sharif M. and K. Ramanathan. Binomial Innovation Diffusion Models with Dynamic Potential Adopter Population. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1981,20:63-87.
[100]Klastorin T., Tsai W. New product introduction:Timing, design and pricing. Manufacturing and Service Operations Management,2004,6(4):302-320.
[101]Baltas G. Utility-consistent brand demand systems with endogenous category consumption:principles and marketing applications. Decision Sciences,2001, 32(3):399-421.
[102]Jones J.M. and C.J. Ritz. Incorporating Distribution into New Products Diffusion Models. International Journal of Research in Marketing,1991,8:91-112.
[103]Mesak H. Incorporating Price, Advertising and Distribution in Diffusion Models of Innovation:Some Theorical and Empirical Results Expectations in Diffusion Models. Computers and Operations Research,1996,23:1007-1023.
[104]Jain D. and R.C. Rao. Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,1990,8:163-170.
[105]Parker P. Choosing Among Diffusion Models:Some Empirical Evidence. Marketing Letters,1993,4:81-94.
[106]Mesak H. and W. Berg. Incorporating, Price and Replacement Purchases in New Products Diffusion Models for Consumer Durables. Decision Sciences, 1995,26:425-449.
[107]Bottomley P. and R. Fildes. The Role of Prices in Models of Innovation Diffusion. Journal of Forecasting,1998,17:539-555.
[108]Lackman C. Gompertz Curve Forecasting:A New Product Application. Journal of Marketing Research Society,1978,20:45-47.
[109]Horsky D. A Diffusion Model Incorporating Product Benefits, Price, Income and Information. Marketing Science,1990,9:342-365.
[110]Peterson R. and V. Mahajan. Multi-Poduct Growth Models, in J. Sheth (ed.), Research in Marketing-vol.1,1978,CT:JAI Press, Greenwich, pp.201-231.
[111]Udayan Chanda A. K. Bardhan. Modelling innovation and imitation sales of products with multiple technological generations. Journal of High Technology Management Research,2008,18:173-190.
[112]Namwoon Kim,Rajendra K.Srivastava.Modeling cross-price effects on inter-category dynamics:The case of three computing platforms. Omega,2007,35:290-301.
[113]Bayus B. Forecasting Sales of New Contingent Products:An Application to the Compact Disc Market. Journal Product Innovation Management,1987,4:243-255.
[114]Kim N., D.R. Chang and A. Shocker. Modeling Intercategory and Generational Dynamics for A Growing Information Technology Industry. Management Science, 2000,46:496-512.
[115]Bayus B., N. Kim and A. Shocker. Growth Models for Multiproduct Interactions: Current Status and New Directions, in V. Mahajan, E. Muller and Y. Wind (eds.),New-Product Diffusion Models, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 2000,pp.141-163.
[116]Norton J.A. and F.M. Bass. A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products. Management Science, 1987,33:1069-1086.
[117]Puumalainen K. Global diffusion of innovations in telecommunications:effect of data aggregation and market environment. PhD thesis, Lappeenranta University of Technology.2002.
[118]Gore P. and A. Lavaraj. A Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Population. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1987,32:163-167.
[119]Dekimpe M..P. Parker and M. Sarvary. Global Diffusion of Technological Innovations:A Coupled Hazard Approach. Journal of Marketing Research, 2000.37:47-59.
[120]Dekimpe M., P. Parker and M. Sarvary. Globalization:Modeling Technology Adoption Timing across Countries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2000.63:25-42.
[121]Kumar V. and T.V. Krishnan. Multinational Diffusion Models:An Alternative Framework. Marketing Science.2002.21:318-330.
[122]Talukdar D., K. Sudhir and A. Ainslie. Investigating New Product Diffusion across Products and Countries. Marketing Science.2002.21:97-114.
[123]Allaway A.. D. Berkowitz and G. D'Souza. Spatial Diffusion of a New Loyalt Program Through a Retail Market. Journal of Retailing,2003.79:137-151.
[124]Dekimpe M.. P. Parker and M. Sarvary. Multimarket and Gobal Diffusion, in V.Mahajan. E. Muller and Y. Wind (eds.). New-Product Diffusion Models, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Dordrecht,2000,pp.49-74.
[125]Ho T.H.. S. Savin and C. Terwiesch. Managing Demand and Sales Dynamics in New Product Diffusion under Supply Constraint. Management Science,2002.48:187-206.
[126]Bemmaor A.C. and J. Lee. The Impact of Heterogeneity and Ⅲ-Conditioning on Diffusion Model Parameter Estimates. Marketing Science,2002,21:209-220.
[127]Sharif M. and K. Ramanathan. Polynomial Innovation Diffusion Models. Tech-nological Forecasting and Social Change,1982.21:301-323.
[128]Silver S. A Simpl Mathematical Theory of Innovative Behavior:Comment. Journal of Consumer Research,1984,10:441-444.
[129]Mahajan V., E. Muller and S. Sharma. An Empirical Comparison of Awareness Forecasting Models of New Product Acceptance. Marketing Science,1984,3:179-197.
[130]Robinson B. and C. Lakhani. Dynamic Price Models for New Product Planning. Management Science,1975,10:1113-1122.
[131]Krishnan T.V., D. C. Jain. Optimal Dynamic Advertising Policy for New Products. Management Science,2006,52,(12):1957-1969.
[132]Michal Herzenstein. Steven S. Posavac and J. Josko Brakus. Adoption of New and Really New Products:The Effects of Self-Regulation Systems and Risk Salience. Journal of Marketing Research,2007,XLIV:251-260.
[133]Lan Luo, P.K. Kannan, B.T. Ratchford. New Product Development Under Channel Acceptance. Marketing Science,2007,26:149-163.
[134]Hahn M.,S. Park,L. Krishnamurthi,A. Zoltners. Analysis of New-Product Diffusion Using a Four-Segment Trial-Repeat Model. Marketing Science,1994,13:224-247.
[135]Putsis W.P. Parameter Variation and New Product Diffusion. Journal of Forecasting, 1998,17:231-257.
[136]Krishnan T.V., F.M. Bass and D. Jain. Optimal Pricing Strategy for New Products. Management Science,1999,45:1650-1663.
[137]Kalish S. Monopolist Pricing with Dynamic Demand and Production Cost. Marketing Science,1983,2:135-160.
[138]Jones J. Morgan, Christopher J. Ritz. Incorporating Distribution Into New Product Diffusion Models.working paper. Marketing Department, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill,1987.
[139]Mahajan V. and Y. Wind. Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product Acceptance, MA:Ballinger Publishing Company, Cambridge,1986.
[140]Horsky D. and L. Simon. Advertising and the Diffusion of New Product. Marketing Science,1983,1:1-18.
[141]Simon H. and K. Sebastian. Diffuson and Advertising:the German Telephone Company. Management Science,1987,33:451-466.
[142]Jain D. and Ram C. Rao. Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables:Modeling, Estimation and Findings. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1990,2:163-170.
[143]Tellis G.J.,Stremersch S., Yin E.The international takeoff of new products:the role of economics, culture, and country innovativeness. Mark Sci,2003,22(2):188-208.
[144]Christos J. Emmanouilides, Richard B. Davies. Modelling and estimation of socia linteraction effects in new product diffusion. European Journal of Operational Research,2007,177:1253-1274.
[145]Gatignon H., J. Eliashberg and T.S. Robertson. Modelling Multinational Diffusion Patterns:An Efficient Methodology. Marketing Science,1989,8:231-247.
[146]Kalish S. and G. L. Lilien. A Maret Entry Timing Model for New Technologies. Management Science,1986.32:194-205.
[147]Srivastava R. K.. V. Mahajan, S. N. Ramaswami and J. Cherian. A Multi-Attribute Diffusion Model for Forecasting the Adoption of Investment Alternatives for Consumers. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1985.28:325-333.
[148]Jain D.. V. Mahajan and E. Muller. Innovation Diffusion in the Presence of Supply Restrictions. Marketing Science.1991.10:83-90.
[149]Kumar S.. J.M. Swaminathan. Diffusion of Innovations under Supply Constraints. Operations Research,2003.51:866-879.
[150]Swami S. and P.J. Khairnar. Diffusion of Products with Limited Supply and Known Expiration Date. Marketing Letters.2003.14:33-46.
[151]Mahajan V., J. Wind and S. Sharma. An Approach to Repeat-Purchase Diffusion Analysis. AMA 1983 Educators'Conference Proceeding. Series No.49.1983. American Marketing Association. Chicago, pp.442-446.
[152]Rao A. and M. Yamada. Forecastingwith a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Model. Management Science,1988.34:734-752.
[153]Steffens P.R. An Aggregate Sales Model for Consumer Durables Incorporating a Time Varying Mean Replacement Age. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2003,70:901-917.
[154]Bass F.M.. Gordon K., Ferguson T.L.& Githens M.L. DIRECTV:Forecasting diffusion of a new technology prior to product launch.Interfaces,2001.31(3):S82-S93.
[155]Jarmo Ilonen. Joni-Kristian Kamarainen. Kaisu Puumalainen, Sanna Sundqvist. Toward automatic forecasts for diffusion of innovations. Technological Forecasting & Social Change.2006.73:182-198.
[156]Mahajan V. and S. Sharma. Simple Algebraic Estimation Procedure for Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product Acceptance. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1986.30:331-46.
[157]Putsis W.P.& Srinivasan V. Estimation techniques for micro diffusion models. In V. Mahajan, E. Muller & Y. Wind(Eds.), New product diffusion models (pp.263-291).Boston,MA:Kluwer.2000.
[158]Bass F.M. The Adoption of a Marketing Model:Comments and Observations, in Innovation Dzffusion of New Product Acceptance, Vijay Mahajan and Yoram Wind.eds. Cambridge. MA:Ballinger Publishing Company,1986.
[159]Lawrence K. and Lawton W. Applications of Diffusion Models:Some Empirical Results, in Y. Wind, V. Mhajan and R. Cardozo (eds.), New-Product Forecasting, Lexington Books, Lexington, pp.529-541,1981.
[160]DeKluyver Cornelis A. A Comparative Analysis of the Bass and Weibull New Product Growth Models for Consumer Durables. New Zealand Journal of Operations Research,1982,10:99-130.
[161]Thomas Robert J. Estimating Market Growth for New Products:An Analogical Diffusion Model Approach.Journal of Product Innovation Management,1985,2:45-55.
[162]Dvaid M. Lilien. Econometric Software Reliability and Nonlinear Estimation Review:comment.Journal of Applied Econometrics. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2000,15(1):107-110.
[163]Sultan F., J. Farley and D. Lehmann. Meta-analysis of Applications of Diffusion Models. Journal of Marketing Research,1990,27:375-388.
[164]Byaus Barry L. High-Definition Television:Demand Forecasts for a Next-Generation Consumer Durable.Management Science,1993,39(11):1319-1333.
[165]Byaus Barry L. and Carolyn C. Carlstrom. Grouping Durable Goods. Applied Economics,1990,22:759-773.
[166]Srinivasan, V. and Charlotte H. Mason. Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models. Marketing Science,1986,5:169-178.
[167]Jain Dipak C.,Ram C. Rao.Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables:Modeling, Estimation and Findings. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,1989, 8(2)163:170.
[168]Schmittlein David C., Vijay Mahajan. Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance. Marketing Science, 1982,1:57-78.
[169]Bretschneider Stuart I., Vijay Mahajan. Adaptive Technological Substitutions Models.Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1980,18:129-139.
[170]Vanhonacker W.R., Lehmann D.R.& Sultan F.Combining related and sparse data in linear regression models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,1990,8:327-335.
[171]Lenk Peter J., Ambar.G Rao.New Models from Old:Forecasting Product Adoption by Hierarchical Bayes Procedures, Marketing Science,1990,9(1)(Winter):42-57.
[172]Lee Jonathan A., Peter Boatwright, and Wagner A. Kamakura. Bayesian Model for Prelaunch Sales Forecasting of Recorded Music. Management Science, 2003,49(2):179-196.
[173]Neelamegham Ramya, and Pradeep Chintagunta.A Bayesian Model to Forecast New Product Performance in Domestic and International Markets. Marketing Science, 1999,18 (2):115-36.
[174]Talukdar Debabrata. K. Sudhir. and Andrew Ainslie. Investigating New Product Diffusion Across Products and Countries. Marketing Science,2002.21(1):97-114.
[175]Carbone Robert and R. L. Longini.A Feedback Model for Automated Real Estate Assessment. Management Science.1977,24 (November):241-248.
[176]Parker P.,Gatignon H. Competitive effects in diffusion models. International Journal of Research in Marketing,1994,11:17-39.
[177]Dockner E., Jorgensen S. New-product advertising in dynamic oligopolies.Methods and Models of Operations Research,1992.36:459-473.
[178]艾兴政,唐小我.两种产品竞争与扩散模型研究.电子科技大学学报，1998(4)：440-444.
[179]艾兴政，唐小我.广告媒介下两种产品竞争与扩散模型研究.管理工程学报,2000(3)：19-22.
[180]Van den Bulte Christophe, Gary L. Lilien. Medical innovation revisited:Social contagion versus marketing effort. Amer. J. Sociol,2001,106:1409-1435.
[181]Easingwood C.,V. Mahajan and E. Muller. A Nonuniform Influence Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance. Marketing Science.1983.2:273-296.
[182]Ruiz-Conde E. Modeling Innovation Diffusion Patterns. Alblasserdam(The Netherlands). Labyrint publication.2004.
[183]菲利普.科特勒.营梢管理：分析、计划、执行和控制.上海：上海人民出版社,1997.
[184]Peter D. Bennelt. Dictionary of Marketing Terms. Chicago,AMA, pp.18-19.1998.
[185]Alvin A. Achenbaum. The Mismanagement of Brand Equity. ARF Fifth Annual Advertising and Promotion Work-shop,1993.
[186]Kevin L. Keller. Strategic Brand Mnangement. Prentice Hall.lnc.1998,pp.45.
[187]黄昌富.名牌竞争：买方市场条件下的系统竞争.中国流通经济,1999.3：18-20.
[188]王海云,尚志田.重复购买的产品生命周期模型研究.中国管理科学.2002,4：24-29.
[189]Utterback J., Suarez F. Innovation, competition, and industry structure. Res. Policy,1993,22:1-21.
[190]Paul Windrum, Chris Birchenhall. Is product life cycle theory a special case? Dominant designs and the emergence of market niches through coevolutionary-learning. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,1998,9:109-134.
[191]潘成云.品牌市场生命周期管理理论论纲.中国流通经济,2006,9：42-45.
[192]王春红,韩福荣.品牌寿命与产品寿命的协同演化.商场现代化,2006,5：195-196.
[193]白玉,陈建华.品牌生命周期的形成机理及其管理控制.武汉理工大学学报,2002.12：117-120.
[194]Golder P.N., Tellis G.J. Growing, growing, gone:cascades, diffusion, and turning points in the product life cycle.Mark Sci,2004,23(2):207-218.
[195]Barry L. Bayus, Wooseong Kang, and Rajshree Agarwal. Creating Growth in New Markets:A Simultaneous Model of Firm Entry and Price. J. Prod Innov Manag,2007,24:139-155.
[196]Cheryl T. Druehl, Glen M. Schmidt, Gilvan C. Souza. The optimal pace of product updates. European Journal of Operational Research,2009,192:621-633.
[197]王新新.新竞争力.长春出版社,2000.
[198]Delre S.A., W. Jager, T.H.A. Bijmolt, M.A. Janssen. Targeting and timing promotional activities:An agent-based model for the takeoff of new products. Journal of Business Research,2007,60:826-835.
[199]Alkemade F, C. Castaldi. Strategies fo rthe diffusion of innovations on social networks. ComputEcon,2005,25:3-23.
[200]Delre S.A., W. Jager, M.A. Janssen. Diffusion dynamics in small world networks with heterogeneous consumers. Comput Math Organ Theory,2006,4:5-32.
[201]Lee I.S., H.S.Kim. The influence of after sales services quality on the repurchase and word-of-mouth effect. J. Qual. Manage,2003,31(2).
[202]Swann G.M.P. Sales practice and market evolution:the case of virtual reality. Int. J. Ind. Organ.,2001,19:1119-1139.
[203]陈明亮.生命周期不同阶段客户重复购买意向决定因素的实证研究.管理世界,2002,11：93-99.
[204]孙曰瑶.自主创新的品牌经济学研究.中国工业经济,2006,4：59-65.
[205]王朋,孙骅.部分完全替代创新产品的扩散模型.系统工程,2005,9：33-36.
[206]王朋,孙骅,王睨.惯性购买行为下多品牌竞争的新产品扩散模型.科研管理,2007,28(2)：139-145.
[207]乔忠,王福华,刘巍.经常购买模型及其参数的极大似然估计.系统工程,2004,6：25-28.
[208]胡雯瑾.考虑重复购买的银行卡产业扩散模型及其参数估计和灵敏度分析.系统管理学报,2007,2：87-92.
[209]杨敬辉,武春友.基于Bass模型的两种参数估算算法比较研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2005,12：125-132.
[210]丁士海,韩之俊.基于数据拟合的非线性方法及Matlab解决方案.统计与决 策,2009.3：24-25.
[211]王沫然.MATLAB与科学计算.北京：电子工业出版社,2003.
[212]薛定宇,陈阳泉.高等应用数学问题的MATLAB求解.北京：清华大学出版社,2004.
[213]贺丰.利用S曲线及BASS扩散模型预测移动用户发展.http://market.c114. net/220/a155875.html,2006.
[214]Heskett J. Putting the service-profit chain to work. Harvard Bus. Rev., Harvard Business School Press,1994.
[215]Watanabe C. R. Kondo,N. Ouchi, H. Wei. A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change,2004,71:365-390.
[216]王福华,乔忠.刘巍.重复与经常购买的产品生命周期的参数估计.数量经济技术经济研究,2004,8：55-61.
[217]李政权.弱势品牌营销.浙江人民出版社,2004.
[218]Chattopadhyay Amitava and Jean-Louis Laborie. Managing Brand Experience:The Market Contact Audit.Journal of Advertising Research,2005,45(1):9-16.
[2]丁士海,韩之俊.基于Bass模型的品牌扩散模型研究综述.技术经济,2009,4：123-127.
[3]Chandrasekaran D.,G.J.Tellis. A Critical Review of Marketing Research on Diffusion of New Products. Review of Marketing Research,2007,3:39-80.
[4]丁士海,韩之俊.基于创新扩散的快速消费品品牌生命周期研究.技术经济,2008.7：39-42.
[5]Ding Shihai,Han Zhijun. Research on the Brand Diffusion of the China Mobile Communication Industry Based on the Innovation Diffusion Theory. International Journal of Business and Management,2009,2:36-40.
[6]丁士海,韩之俊.基于创新扩散的耐用品品牌扩散模型探析.软科学,2009,3：127-133.
[7]蔡莉.高技术扩散规律的研究.科学学与科学技术管理,1994,8：23-26.
[8]Tarde G. The Laws of Imitation.Holt Rinehart and Winston Inc,New York,1903, p382.
[9]Schumpeter J.A.(何畏等译).经济发展理论.北京：商务印书馆,1990.
[10]Schumpeter J.A. The Theory of Economic Development. Harvard University Press, Cambridge,1934.
[11]Brock W.A.,S.N. Durlauf. Interactions-based models, in:J. Heckman, E. Leamer(Eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, vol.5, North-Holland, Amsterdam,2001.
[12]王朋.不完全竞争条件下更新换代产品扩散模型研究[D].西南交通大学,2006.
[13]武春友,戴大双,苏敬勤.技术创新扩散.北京：化学工业出版社,1997.
[14]Alastair Robertson, Didier Soopramanien, Robert Fildes. Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services. Telecommunications Policy,2007, 31:265-275.
[15]Rogers E. M. Diffusion of Innovations. Copy-Right, By Free Perss,1983.
[16]Rogers E.M. Diffusion of Innovations.5th ed., FreePress, NewYork,2003.
[17]Seung-junYeon,Sang-hyun Park,Sang-wook Kim. A dynamic diffusion model for managing customer's expectation and satisfaction. Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2006,73:648-665.
[18]Roberts J.H., J.M. Lattin. Disaggregate-level diffusion models. InV. Mahajan, E.Muller,& Y.Wind(Eds.), New-product diffusion models (pp.207-236). Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000.
[19]Mahajan V.,E. Muller,F. M.Bass. Diffusion of new products:empirical generalizations and managerial uses.Mark Sci,1995.14(3):79-88.
[20]Van den Bulte C. S. Stremersch. Social contagion and income heterogeneity in new product diffusion:a meta-analytic test. Mark Sci,2004.23(4):530-544.
[21]Nigel Meade. Towhidul Islam. Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation —A 25-year review. International Journal of Forecasting,2006,22:519-545.
[22]Agarwal R.,B.L. Bayus. The market evolution and sales takeoff of product innovations. Management Science,2002.48:1024-1041.
[23]Srinivasan R.,G.L. Lilien, A. Rangaswamy. The emergence of dominant designs. Journal of Marketing.2006,70:1-17.
[24]Mahajan V.,E.Muller. Timing, diffusion, and substitution of successive generations of technological generations:The IBM mainframe case. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1996,51:109-132.
[25]Vanston L. Forecasts for internet/online access. In D.G. Loomis & L.D. Taylor (Eds.). Forecasting the internet:Understanding the explosive growth of data communications (pp.45-58).Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers.2002.
[26]Botelho A.& L.C. Ligia Costa Pinto. The diffusion of cellular phones in Portugal. Telecommunications Policy,2004.28(5-6):427-437.
[27]官建成.张西武.创新扩散模型的研究进展与展望.科学学与科学技术管理,1995.12:14-18.
[28]Bass F.M. A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management Science, 1969,15:215-227.
[29]Mahajan V. and R. Peterson. Innovation diffusion in a dynamic potential adopter population. Management Science,1978,24:1589-1597.
[30]Jeuland A. Parsimonious models of diffusion of innovation:Part A, derivations and comparison, working paper,Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.1981.
[31]Bass F.M., D.C. Jain, T.V. Krishnan. Modeling the marketing-mix influence in new-product diffusion, V. Mahajan, E. Muller, Y. Wind, eds. New Product Diffusion Models,2000,Springer,99-122.
[32]Goldenberg J., D.R. Lehmann, D.Mazursky. The idea itself and the circumstances of its emergence as predictors of new product success. Manage Sci,2001,47(1):69-84.
[33]Goldenberg J., B. Libai, E. Muller. Talk of the net work:a complex system look at the underlying process of word-of-mouth. Mark Lett,2001,12(3):211-223.
[34]盛亚.技术创新扩散与新产品营销.北京：中国发展出版社,2002.
[35]So Young Sohn, Byung Joo Ahn. Multi-generation diffusion model for economic assessment of new technology. Technological Forecasting Social Change,2003, 70:251-264.
[36]Peterson R. and V. Mahajan. Multi-poduct growth models.in J. Sheth (ed.), Research in Marketing-vol.1, CT:JAI Press, Greenwich,1978:201-231.
[37]Mahajan V., S. Sharma and R. Buzzell. Assessing the impact of competitive entry on market expansion and incumbent sales. Journal of Marketing,1993,57:39-52.
[38]Givon M., V. Mahajan and E. Muller. Software piracy:Estimation of lost sales and the impact on software diffusion. Journal of Marketing,1995,59:29-37.
[39]Givon M., V. Mahajan and E. Muller. Assessing the Relationship Between the User Based Market Share and Unit Sale-Based Market Share for Pirated Software Brands in Competitive Markets. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1997,55:131-144.
[40]Souza G. C. Product introduction decisions in a duopoly. European Journal of Operational Researchl,2004,52(3):745-757.
[41]Mahajan V. and R. Peterson. Integratng Time and Space in Technological Models. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1979,14:231-241.
[42]Dodson J. and E. Muller. Models of New Products Diffusion through Advertising and Worth-of-Mouth. Management Science,1978,24:1568-1578.
[43]Chen M.,Yu C. The optimal launch schedule for two new cannibalistic durables:A diffusion theory approach. Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research, 2002,19(1):1-15.
[44]Bhattacharya S., Krishnan V., Mahajan V. Operationalizing technology improvements in product development decision making. European Journal of Operational Research, 2003,149(1):102-130.
[45]Carrillo J. Industry clockspeed and the pace of new product development. Production and Operations Management,2005,14(2):125-141.
[46]Mallik S.,Chhajed D.Optimal temporal product introduction strategies under valuation changes and learning. European Journal of Operational Research,2006,172 (2):430-452.
[47]Lilien G. L., A. Rao and S. Kalish. Bayesian Estimation and Control of Detailing Effort in a Repeat-Purchase Diffusion Environment. Management Science, 1981,27:493-506.
[48]Jensen R. Adoption and Diffusion of an Innovation of Uncertain Profitability. Journal of Economic Theory,1982,27:182-193.
[49]Chatterjee R. and J. Eliashberg. The Innovation Diffusion Process in Heterogeneous Population:A Micromodeling Approach. Management Science,1990,36:1057-1079.
[50]Horsky D. and L. Simon. Advertising and the Diffusion of New Product. Marketing Science,1983,1:1-18.
[51]Kalish S. A New Product Adoption Model with Pricing. Advertising and Uncertainty. Management Science,1985,31:1569-1585.
[52]Dolan R., A. Jeuland. Expeience Curves and Dynamic Demand Models:Implications for Optimal Pricing Strategies. Journal of Marketing Research,1981,45:52-62.
[53]Eliashberg J. and A. Jeuland. The Impact of Competitive Entry in Developing Market Upon Dynamic Pricing Strategies. Marketing Science,1986.5:20-36.
[54]Krankel R.M., Duenyas I., Kupuscinski R. Timing successive product introductions with demand diffusion and stochastic technology improvement. Manufacturing and Service Operations Management.2006,8(2):119-135.
[55]Roberts J.H.& Lattin J.M. Disaggregate-level diffusion models. In V. Mahajan. E. Muller & Y. Wind(Eds.), New-product diffusion models (pp.207-236). Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000.
[56]Kapur P.K.,Bardhan Amit and Jha P.C. An alternative formulation of innovation diffusion model. In. Kapoor, V. K.(Ed.). Mathematics and Information Theory. Anamaya Publication, New Delhi.17-23.2004.
[57]Kapur P.K., V.B. Singh, Sameer Anand & V.S.S. Yadavalli. An innovation diffusion model incorporating chang in the adoption rate. Management Dynamics. 2007.16(1):34-41.
[58]Godes D., D. Mayzlin. Using online conversations to study word-of-mouth communication. Marketing Sci.2004,23:545-560.
[59]Dausuke Satoh. A discrete Bass model and its parameter Estimation. Journal of the Operations Research,2001,44(1):1-18.
[60]盛亚,吴健中.新产品市场扩散Bass模型族的研究.预测,1999.2：71-74
[61]Mahajan V., Muller E. and Bass F.M. New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing:A Review and Directions for Research. Jouranl of Marketing,1990,54:1-26.
[62]Jaakkola H. Modelling Diffusion.Tampere University of Technology, Pori. Publication Series A. Pori.1996 No.A15,79s.
[63]徐玖平.廖志高.技术创新扩散速度模型.管理学报,2004,1(3)：330-340.
[64]Rudolf Scitovski Marcel meler. Solving parameter estimation problem in new product diffusion models. Applied Mathematics and Computation,2002,127:45-63.
[65]Ping Teng Chang, Ching Hsiang Chang. A stage characteristic-preserving product life cycle Modeling. Mathematical and Computer Modeling,2003,37:1259-1269.
[66]Boswijk H.P., Franses P.H. On the econometrics of the Bass diffusio nmodel. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,2005,23:255-268.
[67]Mohle M. The coalescent in population models with time inhomogeneous Environ-ment. Stochastic Processes and Their Application,2002,97:199-227.
[68]Duk B Jun, Seon K Kim. Forecasting telecommunication service subscribers in sub-stitutive and competitive environments. International Journal of Forecasting.2002,18: 561-581.
[69]Elisa Montaguti, Sabine Kuester, Thomas S. Entry strategy for radical product inno-vations:a conceptual model and prepositional inventory. Entern. J. Research in Marketing,2002,19:21-42.
[70]Fildes R..Telecommunications demand forecasting-A review. International Journal of Forecasting,2002,18(4):489-522.
[71]Meade N.& Islam T..Forecasting the diffusion of innovations. In J. S. Armstrong(Ed.), Principles of forecasting.Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers.2001.
[72]何应龙,周宗放.国外新产品扩散模型研究的新进展.管理学报,2007,4(4)：529-536.
[73]洪后其.技术创新扩散研究[D].北京图书馆,1991.
[74]吴刚.技术创新扩散速度及其模型研究[D].北京图书馆,1996,1.
[75]陈欣荣.技术创新扩散的微观机理分析与模拟[D].北京图书馆,1996.
[76]施培公.模仿创新—中国企业技术创新的现实选择[D].北京图书馆,1997.
[77]盛亚.新产品市场扩散模型和最优营销战略研究[D].北京图书馆,1999.
[78]董景荣.技术创新过程管理中的中止决策与扩散模式研究[D].北京图书馆,1999.
[79]戴雪梅.中国技术创新机制理论与实证研究[D].北京图书馆,1999.
[80]徐玖平,胡民安,胡知能.联合收割机的市场扩散模型分析.系统工程理论方法应用,2000,9(2)：141-146.
[81]徐玖平,陈学志.旱育秧技术扩散模型与实证分析.管理工程学报,2001,15：14-19.
[82]胡宝民.技术创新扩散理论与系统演化模型研究[D].北京图书馆,1999.
[83]段茂盛.技术创新扩散的数理分析与模拟[D].北京图书馆,2000.
[84]胡民安.技术创新扩散的机理模型分析和实证分析[D].四川大学管理学院,2002.
[85]苏建旭.技术创新空间扩散机理研究.河北工业大学学报,2000,1.
[86]刘秀新.更替性技术创新扩散系统随机演化模型参数研究.河北工业大学, 2002(12).
[87]胡知能.创新产品市场扩散模型及其应用[D].四川大学.2005，4.
[88]杨敬辉.Bass模型及其两种扩展型的应用研究[D].大连理工大学.2005,9.
[89]Fourt L.A. and Woodlock J.W. Early Prediction of Market Success for New Grocery Products. Journal of Marketing,1960,25:31-38.
[90]Mansfield E. Technical Change and the Rate of Imitation. Econometrica,1961,29: 741-766.
[91]Chaojung Chen, Chihiro Watanabe. Diffusion, substitution and competition dynamism inside the ICT market:The case of Japan. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 2006,73:731-759.
[92]Beck Jonathan. The sales effect of word of mouth:A model for creative goods and estimates for novels. J. Cultural Econom.2007.31:5-23.
[93]Schmittlein D.C. and V. Mahajan. Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance. Marketing Science,1982,1:57-78.
[94]Bass F. M. Comments on "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables" The Bass Model. Management Science,2004,50(12):1833-1840.
[95]Christophe Van den Bulte, Yogesh V. Joshi. New Product Diffusion with Influentials and Imitators. Marketing Science.2007,26(3):400-421.
[96]Mahajan V., E. Muller and R. K. Srivastava. Using Innovation Diffusion Models to Develop Adopter Categories. Journal of Marketing Research, forthcoming,1990.
[97]Mahajan V., Muller E.& Wind Y. New-product diffusion models:From theory to practice. In V. Mahajan, E. Muller & Y. Wind(Eds.), New product diffusion models (pp.3-24). Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000.
[98]Mahajan V., E. Muller, Y. Wind. New-Product Diffusion Models:International Series in Quantitative Marketing, Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000.
[99]Sharif M. and K. Ramanathan. Binomial Innovation Diffusion Models with Dynamic Potential Adopter Population. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1981,20:63-87.
[100]Klastorin T., Tsai W. New product introduction:Timing, design and pricing. Manufacturing and Service Operations Management,2004,6(4):302-320.
[101]Baltas G. Utility-consistent brand demand systems with endogenous category consumption:principles and marketing applications. Decision Sciences,2001, 32(3):399-421.
[102]Jones J.M. and C.J. Ritz. Incorporating Distribution into New Products Diffusion Models. International Journal of Research in Marketing,1991,8:91-112.
[103]Mesak H. Incorporating Price, Advertising and Distribution in Diffusion Models of Innovation:Some Theorical and Empirical Results Expectations in Diffusion Models. Computers and Operations Research,1996,23:1007-1023.
[104]Jain D. and R.C. Rao. Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,1990,8:163-170.
[105]Parker P. Choosing Among Diffusion Models:Some Empirical Evidence. Marketing Letters,1993,4:81-94.
[106]Mesak H. and W. Berg. Incorporating, Price and Replacement Purchases in New Products Diffusion Models for Consumer Durables. Decision Sciences, 1995,26:425-449.
[107]Bottomley P. and R. Fildes. The Role of Prices in Models of Innovation Diffusion. Journal of Forecasting,1998,17:539-555.
[108]Lackman C. Gompertz Curve Forecasting:A New Product Application. Journal of Marketing Research Society,1978,20:45-47.
[109]Horsky D. A Diffusion Model Incorporating Product Benefits, Price, Income and Information. Marketing Science,1990,9:342-365.
[110]Peterson R. and V. Mahajan. Multi-Poduct Growth Models, in J. Sheth (ed.), Research in Marketing-vol.1,1978,CT:JAI Press, Greenwich, pp.201-231.
[111]Udayan Chanda A. K. Bardhan. Modelling innovation and imitation sales of products with multiple technological generations. Journal of High Technology Management Research,2008,18:173-190.
[112]Namwoon Kim,Rajendra K.Srivastava.Modeling cross-price effects on inter-category dynamics:The case of three computing platforms. Omega,2007,35:290-301.
[113]Bayus B. Forecasting Sales of New Contingent Products:An Application to the Compact Disc Market. Journal Product Innovation Management,1987,4:243-255.
[114]Kim N., D.R. Chang and A. Shocker. Modeling Intercategory and Generational Dynamics for A Growing Information Technology Industry. Management Science, 2000,46:496-512.
[115]Bayus B., N. Kim and A. Shocker. Growth Models for Multiproduct Interactions: Current Status and New Directions, in V. Mahajan, E. Muller and Y. Wind (eds.),New-Product Diffusion Models, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 2000,pp.141-163.
[116]Norton J.A. and F.M. Bass. A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products. Management Science, 1987,33:1069-1086.
[117]Puumalainen K. Global diffusion of innovations in telecommunications:effect of data aggregation and market environment. PhD thesis, Lappeenranta University of Technology.2002.
[118]Gore P. and A. Lavaraj. A Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Population. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1987,32:163-167.
[119]Dekimpe M..P. Parker and M. Sarvary. Global Diffusion of Technological Innovations:A Coupled Hazard Approach. Journal of Marketing Research, 2000.37:47-59.
[120]Dekimpe M., P. Parker and M. Sarvary. Globalization:Modeling Technology Adoption Timing across Countries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2000.63:25-42.
[121]Kumar V. and T.V. Krishnan. Multinational Diffusion Models:An Alternative Framework. Marketing Science.2002.21:318-330.
[122]Talukdar D., K. Sudhir and A. Ainslie. Investigating New Product Diffusion across Products and Countries. Marketing Science.2002.21:97-114.
[123]Allaway A.. D. Berkowitz and G. D'Souza. Spatial Diffusion of a New Loyalt Program Through a Retail Market. Journal of Retailing,2003.79:137-151.
[124]Dekimpe M.. P. Parker and M. Sarvary. Multimarket and Gobal Diffusion, in V.Mahajan. E. Muller and Y. Wind (eds.). New-Product Diffusion Models, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Dordrecht,2000,pp.49-74.
[125]Ho T.H.. S. Savin and C. Terwiesch. Managing Demand and Sales Dynamics in New Product Diffusion under Supply Constraint. Management Science,2002.48:187-206.
[126]Bemmaor A.C. and J. Lee. The Impact of Heterogeneity and Ⅲ-Conditioning on Diffusion Model Parameter Estimates. Marketing Science,2002,21:209-220.
[127]Sharif M. and K. Ramanathan. Polynomial Innovation Diffusion Models. Tech-nological Forecasting and Social Change,1982.21:301-323.
[128]Silver S. A Simpl Mathematical Theory of Innovative Behavior:Comment. Journal of Consumer Research,1984,10:441-444.
[129]Mahajan V., E. Muller and S. Sharma. An Empirical Comparison of Awareness Forecasting Models of New Product Acceptance. Marketing Science,1984,3:179-197.
[130]Robinson B. and C. Lakhani. Dynamic Price Models for New Product Planning. Management Science,1975,10:1113-1122.
[131]Krishnan T.V., D. C. Jain. Optimal Dynamic Advertising Policy for New Products. Management Science,2006,52,(12):1957-1969.
[132]Michal Herzenstein. Steven S. Posavac and J. Josko Brakus. Adoption of New and Really New Products:The Effects of Self-Regulation Systems and Risk Salience. Journal of Marketing Research,2007,XLIV:251-260.
[133]Lan Luo, P.K. Kannan, B.T. Ratchford. New Product Development Under Channel Acceptance. Marketing Science,2007,26:149-163.
[134]Hahn M.,S. Park,L. Krishnamurthi,A. Zoltners. Analysis of New-Product Diffusion Using a Four-Segment Trial-Repeat Model. Marketing Science,1994,13:224-247.
[135]Putsis W.P. Parameter Variation and New Product Diffusion. Journal of Forecasting, 1998,17:231-257.
[136]Krishnan T.V., F.M. Bass and D. Jain. Optimal Pricing Strategy for New Products. Management Science,1999,45:1650-1663.
[137]Kalish S. Monopolist Pricing with Dynamic Demand and Production Cost. Marketing Science,1983,2:135-160.
[138]Jones J. Morgan, Christopher J. Ritz. Incorporating Distribution Into New Product Diffusion Models.working paper. Marketing Department, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill,1987.
[139]Mahajan V. and Y. Wind. Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product Acceptance, MA:Ballinger Publishing Company, Cambridge,1986.
[140]Horsky D. and L. Simon. Advertising and the Diffusion of New Product. Marketing Science,1983,1:1-18.
[141]Simon H. and K. Sebastian. Diffuson and Advertising:the German Telephone Company. Management Science,1987,33:451-466.
[142]Jain D. and Ram C. Rao. Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables:Modeling, Estimation and Findings. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1990,2:163-170.
[143]Tellis G.J.,Stremersch S., Yin E.The international takeoff of new products:the role of economics, culture, and country innovativeness. Mark Sci,2003,22(2):188-208.
[144]Christos J. Emmanouilides, Richard B. Davies. Modelling and estimation of socia linteraction effects in new product diffusion. European Journal of Operational Research,2007,177:1253-1274.
[145]Gatignon H., J. Eliashberg and T.S. Robertson. Modelling Multinational Diffusion Patterns:An Efficient Methodology. Marketing Science,1989,8:231-247.
[146]Kalish S. and G. L. Lilien. A Maret Entry Timing Model for New Technologies. Management Science,1986.32:194-205.
[147]Srivastava R. K.. V. Mahajan, S. N. Ramaswami and J. Cherian. A Multi-Attribute Diffusion Model for Forecasting the Adoption of Investment Alternatives for Consumers. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1985.28:325-333.
[148]Jain D.. V. Mahajan and E. Muller. Innovation Diffusion in the Presence of Supply Restrictions. Marketing Science.1991.10:83-90.
[149]Kumar S.. J.M. Swaminathan. Diffusion of Innovations under Supply Constraints. Operations Research,2003.51:866-879.
[150]Swami S. and P.J. Khairnar. Diffusion of Products with Limited Supply and Known Expiration Date. Marketing Letters.2003.14:33-46.
[151]Mahajan V., J. Wind and S. Sharma. An Approach to Repeat-Purchase Diffusion Analysis. AMA 1983 Educators'Conference Proceeding. Series No.49.1983. American Marketing Association. Chicago, pp.442-446.
[152]Rao A. and M. Yamada. Forecastingwith a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Model. Management Science,1988.34:734-752.
[153]Steffens P.R. An Aggregate Sales Model for Consumer Durables Incorporating a Time Varying Mean Replacement Age. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2003,70:901-917.
[154]Bass F.M.. Gordon K., Ferguson T.L.& Githens M.L. DIRECTV:Forecasting diffusion of a new technology prior to product launch.Interfaces,2001.31(3):S82-S93.
[155]Jarmo Ilonen. Joni-Kristian Kamarainen. Kaisu Puumalainen, Sanna Sundqvist. Toward automatic forecasts for diffusion of innovations. Technological Forecasting & Social Change.2006.73:182-198.
[156]Mahajan V. and S. Sharma. Simple Algebraic Estimation Procedure for Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product Acceptance. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1986.30:331-46.
[157]Putsis W.P.& Srinivasan V. Estimation techniques for micro diffusion models. In V. Mahajan, E. Muller & Y. Wind(Eds.), New product diffusion models (pp.263-291).Boston,MA:Kluwer.2000.
[158]Bass F.M. The Adoption of a Marketing Model:Comments and Observations, in Innovation Dzffusion of New Product Acceptance, Vijay Mahajan and Yoram Wind.eds. Cambridge. MA:Ballinger Publishing Company,1986.
[159]Lawrence K. and Lawton W. Applications of Diffusion Models:Some Empirical Results, in Y. Wind, V. Mhajan and R. Cardozo (eds.), New-Product Forecasting, Lexington Books, Lexington, pp.529-541,1981.
[160]DeKluyver Cornelis A. A Comparative Analysis of the Bass and Weibull New Product Growth Models for Consumer Durables. New Zealand Journal of Operations Research,1982,10:99-130.
[161]Thomas Robert J. Estimating Market Growth for New Products:An Analogical Diffusion Model Approach.Journal of Product Innovation Management,1985,2:45-55.
[162]Dvaid M. Lilien. Econometric Software Reliability and Nonlinear Estimation Review:comment.Journal of Applied Econometrics. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2000,15(1):107-110.
[163]Sultan F., J. Farley and D. Lehmann. Meta-analysis of Applications of Diffusion Models. Journal of Marketing Research,1990,27:375-388.
[164]Byaus Barry L. High-Definition Television:Demand Forecasts for a Next-Generation Consumer Durable.Management Science,1993,39(11):1319-1333.
[165]Byaus Barry L. and Carolyn C. Carlstrom. Grouping Durable Goods. Applied Economics,1990,22:759-773.
[166]Srinivasan, V. and Charlotte H. Mason. Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models. Marketing Science,1986,5:169-178.
[167]Jain Dipak C.,Ram C. Rao.Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables:Modeling, Estimation and Findings. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,1989, 8(2)163:170.
[168]Schmittlein David C., Vijay Mahajan. Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance. Marketing Science, 1982,1:57-78.
[169]Bretschneider Stuart I., Vijay Mahajan. Adaptive Technological Substitutions Models.Technological Forecasting and Social Change,1980,18:129-139.
[170]Vanhonacker W.R., Lehmann D.R.& Sultan F.Combining related and sparse data in linear regression models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,1990,8:327-335.
[171]Lenk Peter J., Ambar.G Rao.New Models from Old:Forecasting Product Adoption by Hierarchical Bayes Procedures, Marketing Science,1990,9(1)(Winter):42-57.
[172]Lee Jonathan A., Peter Boatwright, and Wagner A. Kamakura. Bayesian Model for Prelaunch Sales Forecasting of Recorded Music. Management Science, 2003,49(2):179-196.
[173]Neelamegham Ramya, and Pradeep Chintagunta.A Bayesian Model to Forecast New Product Performance in Domestic and International Markets. Marketing Science, 1999,18 (2):115-36.
[174]Talukdar Debabrata. K. Sudhir. and Andrew Ainslie. Investigating New Product Diffusion Across Products and Countries. Marketing Science,2002.21(1):97-114.
[175]Carbone Robert and R. L. Longini.A Feedback Model for Automated Real Estate Assessment. Management Science.1977,24 (November):241-248.
[176]Parker P.,Gatignon H. Competitive effects in diffusion models. International Journal of Research in Marketing,1994,11:17-39.
[177]Dockner E., Jorgensen S. New-product advertising in dynamic oligopolies.Methods and Models of Operations Research,1992.36:459-473.
[178]艾兴政,唐小我.两种产品竞争与扩散模型研究.电子科技大学学报，1998(4)：440-444.
[179]艾兴政，唐小我.广告媒介下两种产品竞争与扩散模型研究.管理工程学报,2000(3)：19-22.
[180]Van den Bulte Christophe, Gary L. Lilien. Medical innovation revisited:Social contagion versus marketing effort. Amer. J. Sociol,2001,106:1409-1435.
[181]Easingwood C.,V. Mahajan and E. Muller. A Nonuniform Influence Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance. Marketing Science.1983.2:273-296.
[182]Ruiz-Conde E. Modeling Innovation Diffusion Patterns. Alblasserdam(The Netherlands). Labyrint publication.2004.
[183]菲利普.科特勒.营梢管理：分析、计划、执行和控制.上海：上海人民出版社,1997.
[184]Peter D. Bennelt. Dictionary of Marketing Terms. Chicago,AMA, pp.18-19.1998.
[185]Alvin A. Achenbaum. The Mismanagement of Brand Equity. ARF Fifth Annual Advertising and Promotion Work-shop,1993.
[186]Kevin L. Keller. Strategic Brand Mnangement. Prentice Hall.lnc.1998,pp.45.
[187]黄昌富.名牌竞争：买方市场条件下的系统竞争.中国流通经济,1999.3：18-20.
[188]王海云,尚志田.重复购买的产品生命周期模型研究.中国管理科学.2002,4：24-29.
[189]Utterback J., Suarez F. Innovation, competition, and industry structure. Res. Policy,1993,22:1-21.
[190]Paul Windrum, Chris Birchenhall. Is product life cycle theory a special case? Dominant designs and the emergence of market niches through coevolutionary-learning. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,1998,9:109-134.
[191]潘成云.品牌市场生命周期管理理论论纲.中国流通经济,2006,9：42-45.
[192]王春红,韩福荣.品牌寿命与产品寿命的协同演化.商场现代化,2006,5：195-196.
[193]白玉,陈建华.品牌生命周期的形成机理及其管理控制.武汉理工大学学报,2002.12：117-120.
[194]Golder P.N., Tellis G.J. Growing, growing, gone:cascades, diffusion, and turning points in the product life cycle.Mark Sci,2004,23(2):207-218.
[195]Barry L. Bayus, Wooseong Kang, and Rajshree Agarwal. Creating Growth in New Markets:A Simultaneous Model of Firm Entry and Price. J. Prod Innov Manag,2007,24:139-155.
[196]Cheryl T. Druehl, Glen M. Schmidt, Gilvan C. Souza. The optimal pace of product updates. European Journal of Operational Research,2009,192:621-633.
[197]王新新.新竞争力.长春出版社,2000.
[198]Delre S.A., W. Jager, T.H.A. Bijmolt, M.A. Janssen. Targeting and timing promotional activities:An agent-based model for the takeoff of new products. Journal of Business Research,2007,60:826-835.
[199]Alkemade F, C. Castaldi. Strategies fo rthe diffusion of innovations on social networks. ComputEcon,2005,25:3-23.
[200]Delre S.A., W. Jager, M.A. Janssen. Diffusion dynamics in small world networks with heterogeneous consumers. Comput Math Organ Theory,2006,4:5-32.
[201]Lee I.S., H.S.Kim. The influence of after sales services quality on the repurchase and word-of-mouth effect. J. Qual. Manage,2003,31(2).
[202]Swann G.M.P. Sales practice and market evolution:the case of virtual reality. Int. J. Ind. Organ.,2001,19:1119-1139.
[203]陈明亮.生命周期不同阶段客户重复购买意向决定因素的实证研究.管理世界,2002,11：93-99.
[204]孙曰瑶.自主创新的品牌经济学研究.中国工业经济,2006,4：59-65.
[205]王朋,孙骅.部分完全替代创新产品的扩散模型.系统工程,2005,9：33-36.
[206]王朋,孙骅,王睨.惯性购买行为下多品牌竞争的新产品扩散模型.科研管理,2007,28(2)：139-145.
[207]乔忠,王福华,刘巍.经常购买模型及其参数的极大似然估计.系统工程,2004,6：25-28.
[208]胡雯瑾.考虑重复购买的银行卡产业扩散模型及其参数估计和灵敏度分析.系统管理学报,2007,2：87-92.
[209]杨敬辉,武春友.基于Bass模型的两种参数估算算法比较研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2005,12：125-132.
[210]丁士海,韩之俊.基于数据拟合的非线性方法及Matlab解决方案.统计与决 策,2009.3：24-25.
[211]王沫然.MATLAB与科学计算.北京：电子工业出版社,2003.
[212]薛定宇,陈阳泉.高等应用数学问题的MATLAB求解.北京：清华大学出版社,2004.
[213]贺丰.利用S曲线及BASS扩散模型预测移动用户发展.http://market.c114. net/220/a155875.html,2006.
[214]Heskett J. Putting the service-profit chain to work. Harvard Bus. Rev., Harvard Business School Press,1994.
[215]Watanabe C. R. Kondo,N. Ouchi, H. Wei. A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change,2004,71:365-390.
[216]王福华,乔忠.刘巍.重复与经常购买的产品生命周期的参数估计.数量经济技术经济研究,2004,8：55-61.
[217]李政权.弱势品牌营销.浙江人民出版社,2004.
[218]Chattopadhyay Amitava and Jean-Louis Laborie. Managing Brand Experience:The Market Contact Audit.Journal of Advertising Research,2005,45(1):9-16.