BtoC环境下的快速时尚品物流分销网络优化设计
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摘要
社会经济活动的快速发展,为人民群众日益增长的物质和精神文化需求提供了坚实保障,同时也带来了一系列生产、生活方式的变革。近年来,顾客对产品需求呈现出个性化、多样化、国际化等新特点,加之顾客的猎奇心理、追求低价高质的心理,为BtoC环境下的网络销售市场发展提供了强有力的驱动力。据中国互联网信息中心的统计数据显示,在“十一五”期间,网络购物市场的交易额年均增长112.2%,2011年中国网络购物市场交易规模比2010年增长了50%,达到7849亿元。关于网络交易的奇迹正不断的创造,以2011年淘宝商城开展的“光棍节”促销活动为例,仅11月11日一天,淘宝商城官方订单数突破2000万单,“支付宝”交易额突破33.6亿,为去年同日交易量的4倍,加上淘宝网的交易量,总交易额突破了52亿,这个数字超过香港6日的零售总额,这无疑不体现了网络购物的热度,也进一步表明了网络交易将成为未来产品销售的主渠道,并给传统的线下交易带来巨大的挑战。通过对网络销售的产品类别的统计发现,服装饰品类产品同图书、电子产品等共同构成了交易的主体,在2010年进行过网络购物的用户中,超过70%的用户购买过服装饰品类产品,这些产品中代表性的品牌有凡客诚品、ZARA、GAP、优衣库等,由于其具有一定品牌价值认可度、市场价格位于中档、价格随时问衰减、物理性质稳定等特点,在网络销售中受到热捧,被业界称为快速时尚品。
在快速时尚品网络热销的同时,其重要支撑之一的物流配送体系的表现却不容乐观,出现了配送成本居高不下,促销极易导致快递企业“爆仓”等问题。为此,如何在现有的物流配送体系基础上,构建针对网络销售主要品类的符合网络销售特征的物流分销网络显得极为迫切。
一般而言,BtoC环境下物流分销网络优化设计的目标是以合理的物流成本提供高水平的物流服务,实现产品的快捷、高效流动。为此,物流分销网络的设计首先要以制造商工厂位置、需求分布特征分析为基础,合理配置物流设施,并确定不同层次的物流设施的数量、容量、处理时间以及层次之间的产品分配量,同时,选择合适的第三方物流企业服务网络。具体到快速时尚品网络销售而言,考虑快速时尚品的特性,网络销售商经常会采取多种销售策略来促进产品的销售,以降低产品积压,最大限度的回收资金,而销售策略通常会带来销售量的大幅度波动,并对已有的网络结构产生影响。为此,快速时尚品的物流分销网络优化设计同传统的物流分销网络相比较,既有共性,又存在差异,有待进一步研究。
本文在国内外相关研究的基础上,通过对快速时尚品网络销售生命周期不同阶段的特征分析以及对其价值变化评估模型研究,提出快速时尚品在生命周期的不同阶段,应分别采取预售、提前期控制、配售等相应的销售策略。以此为基础,分别研究了不同销售策略下的快速时尚品物流分销网络的结构、物流设施数量、容量、处理时间、产品分配量以及第三方物流企业服务网络的选择等问题。本文主要工作如下：
1.研究了快速时尚品的价值变化规律及特性。针对快速时尚品的一般特征,基于产品生命周期理论,对快速时尚品的销售量及价格随时间变化的规律进行分析,并构建了快速时尚品价值变化函数及生命周期曲线,建立了快速时尚品的价值评估模型,通过实证研究,揭示了影响快速时尚品价值变化的关键因素为物流成本。为最大化网络收益,提出将预售、提前期控制、配售等销售策略分别应用于快速时尚品生命周期的引入期、成熟期、衰退期三个阶段,并提出了基于不同销售策略下的物流分销网络设计要点。
2.研究了针对快速时尚品的引入期,基于预售策略的物流分销网络优化设计问题。通过分析预售策略对物流分销网络设计的影响,为了反映网络销售商与顾客两个行为主体的共同利益,构建了确定性的离散双层规划模型。上层规划(U)模型是以最小化网络销售商的物流分销网络总成本为目标,确定工厂到中央仓库的分配方案,中央仓库位置,选择第三方物流企业服务网络。下层规划(L)模型是以最小化顾客承担的第三方物流服务费用为目标,确定第三方物流企业选择方案。针对模型的特点,在预售期、第三方物流企业节约成本等关键参数求解的基础上,提出运用交互式模糊算法进行求解,通过案例分析,验证了算法的有效性,并揭示出引入期的物流分销网络设计中,中央仓库的选择应靠近需求点密集区域,并以租赁为主,第三方物流企业的选择应以全国服务型为主,并控制数量。
3.研究了针对快速时尚品的成熟期,基于提前期控制策略的物流分销网络的优化设计问题。通过分析快速时尚品在成熟期,顾客对产品配送时间敏感的特点,首先构建了考虑产品生命周期、压缩阶段关联性的两类提前期压缩模型,用以确定在产品生命周期的不同阶段的提前期最佳压缩长度及成本。同时,考虑到成熟期产品销售时间较长,网络销售商会采用多种促销手段,导致在不同的销售周期内,销售量大幅度波动。为此,综合考虑销售策略及提前期约束的影响,并提出在物流分销网络中增设自取点,以降低终端配送的压力,建立了快速时尚品物流分销网络多周期非线性混合整数规划模型,通过利用遗传算法确定产品折扣率、中央仓库自建或租赁的方式、第三方物流企业服务网络以及自取点的选择方案。通过案例对折扣率及集货期对物流分销网络收益的影响关系进行了敏感性分析,并揭示出成熟期的物流分销网络设计中,中央仓库的选择应充分考虑处理能力,并在租赁的同时,考虑自建中央仓库,以降低对外部服务商的依赖,并对集货期及折扣率的确定提出了具体的要求。
4.研究了针对快速时尚品衰退期,基于配售策略的物流分销网络的优化设计问题。充分考虑组配策略可加速过季产品的处理、减少订单处理及物流处理成本的特点,研究了产品组配率等相关参数的确定方法。在此基础上,以收益最大化作为目标,考虑组配策略及服务范围约束的影响,建立了具有多产品组配及订单自取特点的物流分销网络的非线性混合整数规划模型。运用模拟退火算法确定集结仓库选址、第三方物流企业选择、自取点位置及分配方案,并结合案例分析了不同组配率对物流分销网络总收益、物流成本、销售总额的影响关系,揭示出提高产品的组配率一方面可以实现产品销售总额的增加,另一方面还可以带来物流总成本的降低,从而提高整个物流分销网络的总收益。在物流分销网络设计中,集结仓库的选择应考虑处理能力,以自建仓库为主,第三方物流企业的选择应以地区服务型为主,并关闭部分自取点。
With the rapid development of the economy and technology, the traditional production and lifestyles have been changed hugely. In the past few years, duo to the customer's demand to the individuation, diversification and internationalization, plus the customer's curiosity and the cost-effective purchasing trend, the online retailing become very active on the market. The statistics data from the China Internet Information Center shows that transaction volume on online market with an average annual growth rate of112.2%in the Eleventh Five-Year period. In detail the transaction volume of the online market in2011amounted to784.9billion Yuan, which is50%higher than that in2010. The miracle of the online transaction is created one by one, for example because of the promotion, the order number of Taobao Mall on Nov11th,2011broke through200million and the corresponding transaction volume broke through3.36billion Yuan; if plus the volume in the taobao.com, the transaction volume would be more than the retail sales volume of six days in Hong Kong. The entire introduced phenomenon reveals the heat of online shopping and maybe it will replace the traditional transaction pattern as the main channel of product sales in future. In recent years, the statistics of online marketing products show that apparels, accessories, books and electronics have become the mainstream of the online transaction. More than70%online buyers bought apparels and accessories from the following representative brands, VANCL, ZARA, GAP, UNIQLO and so on in2010. This kind of product is called fast fashion product due to the acceptability of brand value, mid range of price, price decline with time and physical properties of stability.
The fast fashion product is very popular. In contrast, the important support system of online transaction, logistics distribution system, is still far from meeting the demand. The main problems are the high distribution cost," Blasting warehouse " of third-party-logistics enterprises due to the promotion, and the low satisfaction level of logistics service. Therefore, how to build logistics distribution network with respect to main category in online transaction based on an existing logistics distribution system is an extremely urgent problem.
Generally, in the BtoC context the main propose of optimization and design of logistics distribution network is providing high level of logistics service with reasonable cost and achieving fast and efficient product transfer from production area to terminal customer. Therefore, the logistics distribution network design should be based on analyzing the location of factory and demand distribution characteristics of customers, after which configures the logistics facilities level reasonably, determine the number, volume, process-time and production quantity of different level, and meanwhile choose the appropriate third-party-logistics enterprises. As for fast fashion product in online transaction in particular, due to the influence of the product characteristics, online retailers take various strategies to promote the sale in order to reduce the backlog of products and maximize the recovery funds. However, the variation of strategy not only brings wide demand fluctuations, but also has effect on the network structure. Thus there are both similarity and differences between traditional logistics distribution network and fast-fashion product logistics distribution network, which remains to be studied carefully.
On the basis of review of domestic and foreign reference, it is stated that the pre-sale, the lead time control and the tie-in-sale strategies are should be adopted in different stages of life cycle of fast fashion product by analyzing the characteristics and the value change assessment model of fast fashion product in the corresponding stage. Moreover, structure, number, capacity, processing-time of logistics facilities, allocation and third-party-logistics selection of the logistics distribution network of fast fashion product are studied under different strategies. The main works of this paper as follows:
1. The feature and value change rule of fast fashion product are studied. This chapter focuses on the general feature of fast fashion product based on product life cycle theory. The value change function and product life cycle curve are developed by analyzing the variation rule of the sale volume with time, and the value evaluation model of fast fashion product is proposed. A case study is conducted to reveal the logistics cost is a key factor to influence the value change of fast fashion product. Aiming at maximizing the profit of fast fashion product of logistics distribution network, it is suggested that the pre-sale, lead-time control and tie-in-sale strategies are respectively adopted in the introducing, the mature, and the degenerating periods of product life cycle. Meanwhile, the key design outline of logistics distribution network is introduced.
2. The optimization and design of logistics distribution network with respect to fast fashion products under pre-sale strategy in the introducing period is studied. A discrete bi-level programming deterministic model capturing the common interests of the online retailer and the customer is proposed to analyse the influence of pre-sale strategy on logistics distribution network design. Theupper programming model with the minimum of the total cost of logistics distribution network for online retailer as the optimization objective is adopted to determine the allocation from factory to warehouse, the location of warehouse, the third-party-logistics enterprises selection. The lower programming model with minimum outsourcing cost of customer as the optimization objective is adopted to determine service plans of third-party-logistics enterprises. According to the characteristics of the model, an interactive fuzzy algorithm is used to solve the proposed model on the basis of the fact that the per-sale time, the saving cost of third-party-logistics enterprise and other critical parameters have been determined. Moreover, a case study is conducted to validate the feasibility of the proposed model and the used algorithm. The results reveal that the central warehouses should be located in a place close to dense demand areas and are used mainly for leasing, and the online retailers should provide a small amount of third-party-logistics enterprises and offer the national wide service for the customer selection.
3. The logistics distribution network with respect to fast fashion products under the lead time control strategy in the mature period is studied. By analyzing the characteristics of fast fashion products and the customer's sensitivity to the distribution time in the mature period, two kinds of lead time compression model considering product life cycle and compression stage relevance are presented to determine the best length and the best way for lead time compression in different stages of product life cycle. Meanwhile, because the mature period is long, a series of strategies should be adopted by online retailers, which induces the sale volume fluctuation become bigger with the strategies transformation. Therefore pickup spots in logistics distribution network should be added in the model to reduce the pressure of terminal distribution by considering strategies and lead time constraint. A non-liner mixed integer programming model for multi-periods is proposed, and the genetic algorithm is adopted to achieve the discount rate, the location, the allocation, the service plan of self-building or renting warehouse, the selection plan of third party logistics enterprise and the pickup spot. Through the case study, the sensitivity analysis is carried out to explain the influence of discount rate and gathering time to the logistics distribution network. The results verify the warehouse choice should first consider the processing capacity and building own warehouses paralleling with leasing warehouses in order to reduce dependence on third party, and then provide specific requests to e-commerce the gathering time and the discount rate.
4. The logistics distribution network with respect to fast fashion products under the tie-in-sale strategy in degenerating period is studied. Since the assembling strategy has the features of promoting sales, reducing order and logistics processing cost, an assembling parameter is introduced. The method how to determine the assembling rate and the solution is studied. A non-linear mixed integer programming model with the characteristics of multi-product assembling and order-taking by customer is proposed to maximize the profit of logistics distribution network of fast fashion product. Simulated annealing algorithm is adopted to achieve assembling the warehouse location, selecting the third-party-logistics, selecting the pickup spot, and planning the allocation. Through the case study, the analysis is carried out to explain the influence of assembling rate to the profit of logistics distribution network, the logistics cost and gross sales. The results verify assembling rate increasing on the one hand can raise the total retail sales, on the other hand can reduce the total cost of the logistics and further increase the profit in logistics distribution network. In the logistics distribution network design, the location of assembling warehouse that is self built should consider processing capacity, the selection of third-party-logistics should prefer the location-service based enterprise, and some pickup spots should be closed.
在快速时尚品网络热销的同时,其重要支撑之一的物流配送体系的表现却不容乐观,出现了配送成本居高不下,促销极易导致快递企业“爆仓”等问题。为此,如何在现有的物流配送体系基础上,构建针对网络销售主要品类的符合网络销售特征的物流分销网络显得极为迫切。
一般而言,BtoC环境下物流分销网络优化设计的目标是以合理的物流成本提供高水平的物流服务,实现产品的快捷、高效流动。为此,物流分销网络的设计首先要以制造商工厂位置、需求分布特征分析为基础,合理配置物流设施,并确定不同层次的物流设施的数量、容量、处理时间以及层次之间的产品分配量,同时,选择合适的第三方物流企业服务网络。具体到快速时尚品网络销售而言,考虑快速时尚品的特性,网络销售商经常会采取多种销售策略来促进产品的销售,以降低产品积压,最大限度的回收资金,而销售策略通常会带来销售量的大幅度波动,并对已有的网络结构产生影响。为此,快速时尚品的物流分销网络优化设计同传统的物流分销网络相比较,既有共性,又存在差异,有待进一步研究。
本文在国内外相关研究的基础上,通过对快速时尚品网络销售生命周期不同阶段的特征分析以及对其价值变化评估模型研究,提出快速时尚品在生命周期的不同阶段,应分别采取预售、提前期控制、配售等相应的销售策略。以此为基础,分别研究了不同销售策略下的快速时尚品物流分销网络的结构、物流设施数量、容量、处理时间、产品分配量以及第三方物流企业服务网络的选择等问题。本文主要工作如下：
1.研究了快速时尚品的价值变化规律及特性。针对快速时尚品的一般特征,基于产品生命周期理论,对快速时尚品的销售量及价格随时间变化的规律进行分析,并构建了快速时尚品价值变化函数及生命周期曲线,建立了快速时尚品的价值评估模型,通过实证研究,揭示了影响快速时尚品价值变化的关键因素为物流成本。为最大化网络收益,提出将预售、提前期控制、配售等销售策略分别应用于快速时尚品生命周期的引入期、成熟期、衰退期三个阶段,并提出了基于不同销售策略下的物流分销网络设计要点。
2.研究了针对快速时尚品的引入期,基于预售策略的物流分销网络优化设计问题。通过分析预售策略对物流分销网络设计的影响,为了反映网络销售商与顾客两个行为主体的共同利益,构建了确定性的离散双层规划模型。上层规划(U)模型是以最小化网络销售商的物流分销网络总成本为目标,确定工厂到中央仓库的分配方案,中央仓库位置,选择第三方物流企业服务网络。下层规划(L)模型是以最小化顾客承担的第三方物流服务费用为目标,确定第三方物流企业选择方案。针对模型的特点,在预售期、第三方物流企业节约成本等关键参数求解的基础上,提出运用交互式模糊算法进行求解,通过案例分析,验证了算法的有效性,并揭示出引入期的物流分销网络设计中,中央仓库的选择应靠近需求点密集区域,并以租赁为主,第三方物流企业的选择应以全国服务型为主,并控制数量。
3.研究了针对快速时尚品的成熟期,基于提前期控制策略的物流分销网络的优化设计问题。通过分析快速时尚品在成熟期,顾客对产品配送时间敏感的特点,首先构建了考虑产品生命周期、压缩阶段关联性的两类提前期压缩模型,用以确定在产品生命周期的不同阶段的提前期最佳压缩长度及成本。同时,考虑到成熟期产品销售时间较长,网络销售商会采用多种促销手段,导致在不同的销售周期内,销售量大幅度波动。为此,综合考虑销售策略及提前期约束的影响,并提出在物流分销网络中增设自取点,以降低终端配送的压力,建立了快速时尚品物流分销网络多周期非线性混合整数规划模型,通过利用遗传算法确定产品折扣率、中央仓库自建或租赁的方式、第三方物流企业服务网络以及自取点的选择方案。通过案例对折扣率及集货期对物流分销网络收益的影响关系进行了敏感性分析,并揭示出成熟期的物流分销网络设计中,中央仓库的选择应充分考虑处理能力,并在租赁的同时,考虑自建中央仓库,以降低对外部服务商的依赖,并对集货期及折扣率的确定提出了具体的要求。
4.研究了针对快速时尚品衰退期,基于配售策略的物流分销网络的优化设计问题。充分考虑组配策略可加速过季产品的处理、减少订单处理及物流处理成本的特点,研究了产品组配率等相关参数的确定方法。在此基础上,以收益最大化作为目标,考虑组配策略及服务范围约束的影响,建立了具有多产品组配及订单自取特点的物流分销网络的非线性混合整数规划模型。运用模拟退火算法确定集结仓库选址、第三方物流企业选择、自取点位置及分配方案,并结合案例分析了不同组配率对物流分销网络总收益、物流成本、销售总额的影响关系,揭示出提高产品的组配率一方面可以实现产品销售总额的增加,另一方面还可以带来物流总成本的降低,从而提高整个物流分销网络的总收益。在物流分销网络设计中,集结仓库的选择应考虑处理能力,以自建仓库为主,第三方物流企业的选择应以地区服务型为主,并关闭部分自取点。
With the rapid development of the economy and technology, the traditional production and lifestyles have been changed hugely. In the past few years, duo to the customer's demand to the individuation, diversification and internationalization, plus the customer's curiosity and the cost-effective purchasing trend, the online retailing become very active on the market. The statistics data from the China Internet Information Center shows that transaction volume on online market with an average annual growth rate of112.2%in the Eleventh Five-Year period. In detail the transaction volume of the online market in2011amounted to784.9billion Yuan, which is50%higher than that in2010. The miracle of the online transaction is created one by one, for example because of the promotion, the order number of Taobao Mall on Nov11th,2011broke through200million and the corresponding transaction volume broke through3.36billion Yuan; if plus the volume in the taobao.com, the transaction volume would be more than the retail sales volume of six days in Hong Kong. The entire introduced phenomenon reveals the heat of online shopping and maybe it will replace the traditional transaction pattern as the main channel of product sales in future. In recent years, the statistics of online marketing products show that apparels, accessories, books and electronics have become the mainstream of the online transaction. More than70%online buyers bought apparels and accessories from the following representative brands, VANCL, ZARA, GAP, UNIQLO and so on in2010. This kind of product is called fast fashion product due to the acceptability of brand value, mid range of price, price decline with time and physical properties of stability.
The fast fashion product is very popular. In contrast, the important support system of online transaction, logistics distribution system, is still far from meeting the demand. The main problems are the high distribution cost," Blasting warehouse " of third-party-logistics enterprises due to the promotion, and the low satisfaction level of logistics service. Therefore, how to build logistics distribution network with respect to main category in online transaction based on an existing logistics distribution system is an extremely urgent problem.
Generally, in the BtoC context the main propose of optimization and design of logistics distribution network is providing high level of logistics service with reasonable cost and achieving fast and efficient product transfer from production area to terminal customer. Therefore, the logistics distribution network design should be based on analyzing the location of factory and demand distribution characteristics of customers, after which configures the logistics facilities level reasonably, determine the number, volume, process-time and production quantity of different level, and meanwhile choose the appropriate third-party-logistics enterprises. As for fast fashion product in online transaction in particular, due to the influence of the product characteristics, online retailers take various strategies to promote the sale in order to reduce the backlog of products and maximize the recovery funds. However, the variation of strategy not only brings wide demand fluctuations, but also has effect on the network structure. Thus there are both similarity and differences between traditional logistics distribution network and fast-fashion product logistics distribution network, which remains to be studied carefully.
On the basis of review of domestic and foreign reference, it is stated that the pre-sale, the lead time control and the tie-in-sale strategies are should be adopted in different stages of life cycle of fast fashion product by analyzing the characteristics and the value change assessment model of fast fashion product in the corresponding stage. Moreover, structure, number, capacity, processing-time of logistics facilities, allocation and third-party-logistics selection of the logistics distribution network of fast fashion product are studied under different strategies. The main works of this paper as follows:
1. The feature and value change rule of fast fashion product are studied. This chapter focuses on the general feature of fast fashion product based on product life cycle theory. The value change function and product life cycle curve are developed by analyzing the variation rule of the sale volume with time, and the value evaluation model of fast fashion product is proposed. A case study is conducted to reveal the logistics cost is a key factor to influence the value change of fast fashion product. Aiming at maximizing the profit of fast fashion product of logistics distribution network, it is suggested that the pre-sale, lead-time control and tie-in-sale strategies are respectively adopted in the introducing, the mature, and the degenerating periods of product life cycle. Meanwhile, the key design outline of logistics distribution network is introduced.
2. The optimization and design of logistics distribution network with respect to fast fashion products under pre-sale strategy in the introducing period is studied. A discrete bi-level programming deterministic model capturing the common interests of the online retailer and the customer is proposed to analyse the influence of pre-sale strategy on logistics distribution network design. Theupper programming model with the minimum of the total cost of logistics distribution network for online retailer as the optimization objective is adopted to determine the allocation from factory to warehouse, the location of warehouse, the third-party-logistics enterprises selection. The lower programming model with minimum outsourcing cost of customer as the optimization objective is adopted to determine service plans of third-party-logistics enterprises. According to the characteristics of the model, an interactive fuzzy algorithm is used to solve the proposed model on the basis of the fact that the per-sale time, the saving cost of third-party-logistics enterprise and other critical parameters have been determined. Moreover, a case study is conducted to validate the feasibility of the proposed model and the used algorithm. The results reveal that the central warehouses should be located in a place close to dense demand areas and are used mainly for leasing, and the online retailers should provide a small amount of third-party-logistics enterprises and offer the national wide service for the customer selection.
3. The logistics distribution network with respect to fast fashion products under the lead time control strategy in the mature period is studied. By analyzing the characteristics of fast fashion products and the customer's sensitivity to the distribution time in the mature period, two kinds of lead time compression model considering product life cycle and compression stage relevance are presented to determine the best length and the best way for lead time compression in different stages of product life cycle. Meanwhile, because the mature period is long, a series of strategies should be adopted by online retailers, which induces the sale volume fluctuation become bigger with the strategies transformation. Therefore pickup spots in logistics distribution network should be added in the model to reduce the pressure of terminal distribution by considering strategies and lead time constraint. A non-liner mixed integer programming model for multi-periods is proposed, and the genetic algorithm is adopted to achieve the discount rate, the location, the allocation, the service plan of self-building or renting warehouse, the selection plan of third party logistics enterprise and the pickup spot. Through the case study, the sensitivity analysis is carried out to explain the influence of discount rate and gathering time to the logistics distribution network. The results verify the warehouse choice should first consider the processing capacity and building own warehouses paralleling with leasing warehouses in order to reduce dependence on third party, and then provide specific requests to e-commerce the gathering time and the discount rate.
4. The logistics distribution network with respect to fast fashion products under the tie-in-sale strategy in degenerating period is studied. Since the assembling strategy has the features of promoting sales, reducing order and logistics processing cost, an assembling parameter is introduced. The method how to determine the assembling rate and the solution is studied. A non-linear mixed integer programming model with the characteristics of multi-product assembling and order-taking by customer is proposed to maximize the profit of logistics distribution network of fast fashion product. Simulated annealing algorithm is adopted to achieve assembling the warehouse location, selecting the third-party-logistics, selecting the pickup spot, and planning the allocation. Through the case study, the analysis is carried out to explain the influence of assembling rate to the profit of logistics distribution network, the logistics cost and gross sales. The results verify assembling rate increasing on the one hand can raise the total retail sales, on the other hand can reduce the total cost of the logistics and further increase the profit in logistics distribution network. In the logistics distribution network design, the location of assembling warehouse that is self built should consider processing capacity, the selection of third-party-logistics should prefer the location-service based enterprise, and some pickup spots should be closed.
引文
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