我国粮食供求区域均衡状况及其变化趋势研究
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摘要
改革开放后,我国经济增长迅猛,快速发展的工业化和城镇化导致农业生产资源不断流入非农业部门,特别是引起耕地大量流失;同时由于我国人口众多且继续增长,导致粮食需求不断增长。因此,在我国人多地少、经济高速发展的背景下,保证国内粮食总量和区域供求均衡非常重要,这也使得我国粮食增产的压力不断增大。近年来我国实施了一系列粮食政策改革,因而很有必要重新评估新的政策环境下我国粮食供求状况及其变化趋势,这将有助于我们及时发现未来我国粮食可能存在的供求缺口,并采取适当政策措施来保障未来国内粮食供给安全,提高农民收入和改善居民食品消费结构,都将具有十分重要的理论价值和现实意义。
本文在比较系统地分析有关我国粮食供求问题及其分析方法等相关研究文献的基础上,首先通过构建区域粮食供求均衡表对1992年以来东部、中部和西部三个地区及全国三种粮食、大米、小麦和玉米供求的历史变化状况进行深入分析,然后通过构建区域Nerlove供给反应模型和AIDS面板数据模型,着重从粮食生产者行为和消费者行为微观角度,分别实证分析影响我国粮食生产和需求的微观因素。在上述研究的基础上,基于局部均衡理论通过构建区域供求均衡分析模型(GSDM模型)和设计低增长率、基准、高增长率三种情景方案,从全国和地区两个层次上对未来20年我国粮食供求变化趋势进行模拟分析,据此发现未来我国区域粮食可能出现的产需余缺,提出如何实现我国区域粮食供求均衡的相关政策措施。本文研究的主要框架如下:
(1)文献综述。本文比较详细地综述了国内外研究机构和学者对我国粮食供求进行的预测及其预测方法,粮食生产者行为研究及其分析方法,和我国居民食品消费行为研究及其分析方法等国内外主要研究文献。
(2)我国粮食供求区域均衡状况分析。本文主要通过构建区域粮食供求均衡表,分析全国和各个地区三种粮食、大米、小麦和玉米的生产、消费、贸易和年度节余状况。
(3)我国粮食生产的微观影响因素研究。本文着重通过构建三大地区三种粮食的Nerlove供给反应面板数据模型,实证分析价格、生产投入、政策、技术、风险、城镇化、自然灾害和灌溉等微观生产者行为因素和环境因素影响问题,从中发现微观生产因素对区域粮食生产的作用。
(4)我国食品消费的微观影响因素研究。本文着重通过构建三大地区城镇和农村居民食品需求的AIDS面板数据模型,实证分析食品价格、居民收入和家庭规模、就业人口、教育等微观消费者行为因素影响问题,从中发现微观消费因素对粮食需求的影响。
(5)我国粮食供求区域变化趋势分析。在上述我国粮食供求均衡状况、微观粮食生产行为和消费行为分析的基础上,构建区域供求均衡分析模型,设计低增长率、基准、高增长率三种情景方案,从全国和地区两个层次上对未来20年我国三种粮食的产量、食用消费、饲料消费、工业消费、用种和损耗等进行模拟分析,估计未来我国区域粮食可能出现的产需余缺。
(6)根据上述研究结果,从稳定和提高粮食生产、缩减粮食产需缺口、提高粮食自给率等角度,提出实现我国粮食区域供求均衡的政策启示。
本文可能具有以下三个方面的学术创新:
(1)在理论上,本文通过从微观层次上对我国粮食供求区域变化的量化实证分析,及在此基础上通过基于局部均衡理论构建的GSDM模型模拟分析,揭示了我国粮食供求区域变化的微观机理及未来趋势,这突破了现有研究主要从宏观角度探讨我国粮食供求变化的局限性,也在一定程度上丰富了我国粮食经济理论。
(2)在方法上,本文使用大量现有统计数据资料,对粮食生产和需求数据采用各种科学合理的分解方法,构建了1992-2005年分省区的粮食供求均衡表,对我国主要粮食供求区域变化历史进行了深入的分析;并分别通过构建三种不同品种粮食区域Nerlove模型和基于Moschini提出的“修正的Stone价格指数”的城乡居民食品消费AIDS模型,一方面从微观角度上实证分析了影响我国区域粮食生产的生产者行为因素及其影响效应,另一方面实证分析了影响我国区域粮食需求的消费者行为因素及其影响效应。在此基础上,基于局部均衡理论构建了一个涉及大米、小麦和玉米的GSDM模型,设计三种不同情景方案的模拟分析,研究未来我国粮食区域供求变化趋势。对影响我国粮食区域供求的微观和宏观因素进行的实证分析,有助于提高研究我国粮食供求问题的科学性,因而具有较大的方法创新。
(3)在实践上,本文通过大量科学规范的数量分析及构建的我国三种粮食区域供求均衡模型,对我国不同省区不同品种粮食供求的历史变化、影响生产和消费的微观因素以及未来粮食区域供求变化趋势等进行多层次多方面的深入研究,据此得出的大量有关我国粮食区域供求变化的多种信息及基于实证分析结果提出的有关“充分发挥市场价格机制的调节作用”、“建立有效耕地保护制度”和“促进区域粮食贸易”等政策启示,可为政府有关部门合理判断我国粮食供求关系变化趋势和制定粮食安全政策提供科学的决策依据。
Since China has executed the policy of reformation and opening, Chinese economy develops very rapidly. The rapid development of industrialization and urbanization has induced agricultural production resources to pour out of agricultural sectors continuously, especially that lot of arable lands have turned into construction lands. At the same time, Chinese population is very great and continues to grow, which will induce that the sum of demand of grain increase ceaselessly. So under the background that Chinese population is great but the arable land per capita is little, and that the economy grows very fast, it is very important to ensure grain supply and demand equilibrium of China and regions, which makes that the pressure of grain yield enhancement increases continuously. China has put a series of grain policy reforms in practice in recent years, so it is very necessary and important for us to reevaluate the equilibrium status and fluctuant trend of grain supply and demand in the new policy environment, which will help us to look for the possible gap of grain supply and demand in time in future, to take appropriate actions to ensure the domestic safety of grain supply, and to enhance income of farmer and improve the food consumption structure of residents. All of which are very important and significant in theory and practice.
Based on relatively elaborate analysis of correlative research literatures on Chinese grain forecast of supply and demand and its quantitative research methods etc., firstly, the author constructs regional equilibrium sheets of grain supply and demand to analyze the historical change status of production and demand of three kinds of grain, rice, wheat and maize in three regions and the country from 1992. Then, the author constructs regional Nerlove Supply Reaction Model and AIDS Panel Data Model to empirically analyze how micro factors influence Chinese grain production and demand from the micro angle of grain producer behavior and consumer behavior. From the above study, based on Partial Equilibrium Theory to construct regional Grain Supply and Demand Model (GSDM) and design three projections of low rate of increment, basis and high rate of increment, the author re-simulates and analyzes the fluctuant trend of supply and demand of three kinds of grain in three regions and the country in future 20 years, to look for possible surplus or gap of future grain supply and demand, and to bring forward relative political measure to realize regional grain equilibrium of supply and demand. The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Literature summary. The dissertation relatively detailedly summarizes the main research literatures at home and abroad on projections of supply and demand of Chinese grain and their projection methods, researches of grain producer behavior and their analysis methods, studies of consumer behavior of food consumption in china and their analysis methods.
(2) Regional equilibrium analysis of grain supply and demand in China. Mainly through establishing regional equilibrium sheets of grain supply and demand, the dissertation analyzes production, consumption, trade and yearly surplus or gap of rice, wheat, maize and the three kinds of grain in different regions and the country.
(3) Research of micro influencing factors of grain production in China. Through constructing Nerlove Supply Reaction Panel Data Models of three kinds of grain in three regions, the author empirically analyzes the influencing problem of micro factors of producer behavior and environment factors, such as prices, production inputs, policy, technology, risk, urbanization, natural calamity and irrigation etc., to look for the effect of micro production factors on regional grain production.
(4) Study of micro influencing factors of food demand in China. Mainly through constructing AIDS Panel Data Models of food demand of urban and rural residents in three regions, the author positively analyzes the influencing problem of micro factors of consumer behavior, such as food prices, income, family population, education and so on, to look for the effect of micro demand factors on grain consumption.
(5) Analysis of regional fluctuant trend of grain supply and demand in China. Based on equilibrium analysis of grain supply and demand, researches of grain producer behavior and consumer behavior, the author constructs analysis models for regional grain supply and demand, designs three projections of low rate of increment, basis and high rate of increment, re-simulates and analyzes the fluctuant trend of yield, food consumption, feed consumption, industry consumption, seed consumption and the loss of three kinds of grain from the angle of the country and regions in future 20 years, which is to estimate possible surplus or gap of future grain supply and demand.
(6) Depending on the above research results, the dissertation puts forward correlative political enlightenments and suggestions for realization of regional equilibrium of grain supply and demand in China from the angle of that stabilizes and promotes yield of grain production, that reduces the gap of grain supply and demand, and that enhances the rate of grain self-support etc.
Compared with the existing similar domestic study, the main progresses in the dissertation are as follows:
(1) Progress in theory. Mainly through quantitatively analyzing regional change of grain supply and demand from the micro angle in China, based on which through depending on Partial Equilibrium Theory to construct GSDM model, the dissertation opens out the micro mechanism of and the future trend of regional change of Chinese grain supply and demand, which has broken through the limitation that problems of grain supply and demand are studied mainly from the macro angle in existing researches and also richened theories of Chinese grain economy at a certain extent.
(2) Progress in method. The author adopts enormous existing statistical data and materials, applies all kinds of scientific decomposition methods in data of grain production and demand, and establishes regional equilibrium sheets of grain supply and demand from 1992 to 2005 to analyze the history of regional change of main grain supply and demand in China. The author constructs regional Nerlove Models for three species of grain and AIDS Panel Data Models which is based on 'modified Stone Price Index' proposed by Moschini to empirically analyze how micro factors influence Chinese grain production and demand from the micro angle of grain producer behavior and consumer behavior and their influence effect. Based on the above study, Partial Equilibrium Theory is utilized to construct GSDM models for rice, wheat and maize, and three projections of low rate of increment, basis and high rate of increment are designed to analyze the fluctuant trend of regional grain supply and demand. The positive study of micro and macro factors which influence regional grain supply and demand can help us to study grain problems more scientifically, which makes the biggish progress in method.
(3) Progress in practice. The author applies great normative quantitative analysis and constructs regional equilibrium models of supply and demand for three kinds of grain, to make the in-depth study of the historical change of various grain production and demand in different provinces and regions, of micro influencing factors of grain production and demand, and of the fluctuant trend of regional grain supply and demand in future etc. Depending on which, abundant information concerning regional change of grain supply and demand in China is achieved and political enlightenments are proposed, such as 'fully utilizing price mechanism to regulate grain supply and demand', 'establishing effective arable land protection system', and 'accelerating regional grain trade' and so on. The research results in the dissertation can offer relative government sectors scientific decision-making references to reasonably judge the fluctuant trend of grain supply and demand and to institute policies for grain supply safety in China.
本文在比较系统地分析有关我国粮食供求问题及其分析方法等相关研究文献的基础上,首先通过构建区域粮食供求均衡表对1992年以来东部、中部和西部三个地区及全国三种粮食、大米、小麦和玉米供求的历史变化状况进行深入分析,然后通过构建区域Nerlove供给反应模型和AIDS面板数据模型,着重从粮食生产者行为和消费者行为微观角度,分别实证分析影响我国粮食生产和需求的微观因素。在上述研究的基础上,基于局部均衡理论通过构建区域供求均衡分析模型(GSDM模型)和设计低增长率、基准、高增长率三种情景方案,从全国和地区两个层次上对未来20年我国粮食供求变化趋势进行模拟分析,据此发现未来我国区域粮食可能出现的产需余缺,提出如何实现我国区域粮食供求均衡的相关政策措施。本文研究的主要框架如下:
(1)文献综述。本文比较详细地综述了国内外研究机构和学者对我国粮食供求进行的预测及其预测方法,粮食生产者行为研究及其分析方法,和我国居民食品消费行为研究及其分析方法等国内外主要研究文献。
(2)我国粮食供求区域均衡状况分析。本文主要通过构建区域粮食供求均衡表,分析全国和各个地区三种粮食、大米、小麦和玉米的生产、消费、贸易和年度节余状况。
(3)我国粮食生产的微观影响因素研究。本文着重通过构建三大地区三种粮食的Nerlove供给反应面板数据模型,实证分析价格、生产投入、政策、技术、风险、城镇化、自然灾害和灌溉等微观生产者行为因素和环境因素影响问题,从中发现微观生产因素对区域粮食生产的作用。
(4)我国食品消费的微观影响因素研究。本文着重通过构建三大地区城镇和农村居民食品需求的AIDS面板数据模型,实证分析食品价格、居民收入和家庭规模、就业人口、教育等微观消费者行为因素影响问题,从中发现微观消费因素对粮食需求的影响。
(5)我国粮食供求区域变化趋势分析。在上述我国粮食供求均衡状况、微观粮食生产行为和消费行为分析的基础上,构建区域供求均衡分析模型,设计低增长率、基准、高增长率三种情景方案,从全国和地区两个层次上对未来20年我国三种粮食的产量、食用消费、饲料消费、工业消费、用种和损耗等进行模拟分析,估计未来我国区域粮食可能出现的产需余缺。
(6)根据上述研究结果,从稳定和提高粮食生产、缩减粮食产需缺口、提高粮食自给率等角度,提出实现我国粮食区域供求均衡的政策启示。
本文可能具有以下三个方面的学术创新:
(1)在理论上,本文通过从微观层次上对我国粮食供求区域变化的量化实证分析,及在此基础上通过基于局部均衡理论构建的GSDM模型模拟分析,揭示了我国粮食供求区域变化的微观机理及未来趋势,这突破了现有研究主要从宏观角度探讨我国粮食供求变化的局限性,也在一定程度上丰富了我国粮食经济理论。
(2)在方法上,本文使用大量现有统计数据资料,对粮食生产和需求数据采用各种科学合理的分解方法,构建了1992-2005年分省区的粮食供求均衡表,对我国主要粮食供求区域变化历史进行了深入的分析;并分别通过构建三种不同品种粮食区域Nerlove模型和基于Moschini提出的“修正的Stone价格指数”的城乡居民食品消费AIDS模型,一方面从微观角度上实证分析了影响我国区域粮食生产的生产者行为因素及其影响效应,另一方面实证分析了影响我国区域粮食需求的消费者行为因素及其影响效应。在此基础上,基于局部均衡理论构建了一个涉及大米、小麦和玉米的GSDM模型,设计三种不同情景方案的模拟分析,研究未来我国粮食区域供求变化趋势。对影响我国粮食区域供求的微观和宏观因素进行的实证分析,有助于提高研究我国粮食供求问题的科学性,因而具有较大的方法创新。
(3)在实践上,本文通过大量科学规范的数量分析及构建的我国三种粮食区域供求均衡模型,对我国不同省区不同品种粮食供求的历史变化、影响生产和消费的微观因素以及未来粮食区域供求变化趋势等进行多层次多方面的深入研究,据此得出的大量有关我国粮食区域供求变化的多种信息及基于实证分析结果提出的有关“充分发挥市场价格机制的调节作用”、“建立有效耕地保护制度”和“促进区域粮食贸易”等政策启示,可为政府有关部门合理判断我国粮食供求关系变化趋势和制定粮食安全政策提供科学的决策依据。
Since China has executed the policy of reformation and opening, Chinese economy develops very rapidly. The rapid development of industrialization and urbanization has induced agricultural production resources to pour out of agricultural sectors continuously, especially that lot of arable lands have turned into construction lands. At the same time, Chinese population is very great and continues to grow, which will induce that the sum of demand of grain increase ceaselessly. So under the background that Chinese population is great but the arable land per capita is little, and that the economy grows very fast, it is very important to ensure grain supply and demand equilibrium of China and regions, which makes that the pressure of grain yield enhancement increases continuously. China has put a series of grain policy reforms in practice in recent years, so it is very necessary and important for us to reevaluate the equilibrium status and fluctuant trend of grain supply and demand in the new policy environment, which will help us to look for the possible gap of grain supply and demand in time in future, to take appropriate actions to ensure the domestic safety of grain supply, and to enhance income of farmer and improve the food consumption structure of residents. All of which are very important and significant in theory and practice.
Based on relatively elaborate analysis of correlative research literatures on Chinese grain forecast of supply and demand and its quantitative research methods etc., firstly, the author constructs regional equilibrium sheets of grain supply and demand to analyze the historical change status of production and demand of three kinds of grain, rice, wheat and maize in three regions and the country from 1992. Then, the author constructs regional Nerlove Supply Reaction Model and AIDS Panel Data Model to empirically analyze how micro factors influence Chinese grain production and demand from the micro angle of grain producer behavior and consumer behavior. From the above study, based on Partial Equilibrium Theory to construct regional Grain Supply and Demand Model (GSDM) and design three projections of low rate of increment, basis and high rate of increment, the author re-simulates and analyzes the fluctuant trend of supply and demand of three kinds of grain in three regions and the country in future 20 years, to look for possible surplus or gap of future grain supply and demand, and to bring forward relative political measure to realize regional grain equilibrium of supply and demand. The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Literature summary. The dissertation relatively detailedly summarizes the main research literatures at home and abroad on projections of supply and demand of Chinese grain and their projection methods, researches of grain producer behavior and their analysis methods, studies of consumer behavior of food consumption in china and their analysis methods.
(2) Regional equilibrium analysis of grain supply and demand in China. Mainly through establishing regional equilibrium sheets of grain supply and demand, the dissertation analyzes production, consumption, trade and yearly surplus or gap of rice, wheat, maize and the three kinds of grain in different regions and the country.
(3) Research of micro influencing factors of grain production in China. Through constructing Nerlove Supply Reaction Panel Data Models of three kinds of grain in three regions, the author empirically analyzes the influencing problem of micro factors of producer behavior and environment factors, such as prices, production inputs, policy, technology, risk, urbanization, natural calamity and irrigation etc., to look for the effect of micro production factors on regional grain production.
(4) Study of micro influencing factors of food demand in China. Mainly through constructing AIDS Panel Data Models of food demand of urban and rural residents in three regions, the author positively analyzes the influencing problem of micro factors of consumer behavior, such as food prices, income, family population, education and so on, to look for the effect of micro demand factors on grain consumption.
(5) Analysis of regional fluctuant trend of grain supply and demand in China. Based on equilibrium analysis of grain supply and demand, researches of grain producer behavior and consumer behavior, the author constructs analysis models for regional grain supply and demand, designs three projections of low rate of increment, basis and high rate of increment, re-simulates and analyzes the fluctuant trend of yield, food consumption, feed consumption, industry consumption, seed consumption and the loss of three kinds of grain from the angle of the country and regions in future 20 years, which is to estimate possible surplus or gap of future grain supply and demand.
(6) Depending on the above research results, the dissertation puts forward correlative political enlightenments and suggestions for realization of regional equilibrium of grain supply and demand in China from the angle of that stabilizes and promotes yield of grain production, that reduces the gap of grain supply and demand, and that enhances the rate of grain self-support etc.
Compared with the existing similar domestic study, the main progresses in the dissertation are as follows:
(1) Progress in theory. Mainly through quantitatively analyzing regional change of grain supply and demand from the micro angle in China, based on which through depending on Partial Equilibrium Theory to construct GSDM model, the dissertation opens out the micro mechanism of and the future trend of regional change of Chinese grain supply and demand, which has broken through the limitation that problems of grain supply and demand are studied mainly from the macro angle in existing researches and also richened theories of Chinese grain economy at a certain extent.
(2) Progress in method. The author adopts enormous existing statistical data and materials, applies all kinds of scientific decomposition methods in data of grain production and demand, and establishes regional equilibrium sheets of grain supply and demand from 1992 to 2005 to analyze the history of regional change of main grain supply and demand in China. The author constructs regional Nerlove Models for three species of grain and AIDS Panel Data Models which is based on 'modified Stone Price Index' proposed by Moschini to empirically analyze how micro factors influence Chinese grain production and demand from the micro angle of grain producer behavior and consumer behavior and their influence effect. Based on the above study, Partial Equilibrium Theory is utilized to construct GSDM models for rice, wheat and maize, and three projections of low rate of increment, basis and high rate of increment are designed to analyze the fluctuant trend of regional grain supply and demand. The positive study of micro and macro factors which influence regional grain supply and demand can help us to study grain problems more scientifically, which makes the biggish progress in method.
(3) Progress in practice. The author applies great normative quantitative analysis and constructs regional equilibrium models of supply and demand for three kinds of grain, to make the in-depth study of the historical change of various grain production and demand in different provinces and regions, of micro influencing factors of grain production and demand, and of the fluctuant trend of regional grain supply and demand in future etc. Depending on which, abundant information concerning regional change of grain supply and demand in China is achieved and political enlightenments are proposed, such as 'fully utilizing price mechanism to regulate grain supply and demand', 'establishing effective arable land protection system', and 'accelerating regional grain trade' and so on. The research results in the dissertation can offer relative government sectors scientific decision-making references to reasonably judge the fluctuant trend of grain supply and demand and to institute policies for grain supply safety in China.
引文
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