3G时代我国电信运营商股票价值分析
摘要
电信行业是我国支柱产业,在全球通胀压力倍增、经济增长放缓的环境下,对拉动我国内需具有重要作用。我国电信行业从最初的完全垄断,经历了政府主导的一次又一次拆分与重组,形成了六大运营商割据的寡头垄断格局,市场集中度高,进入门槛高。本次行业重组是基于3G牌照发放的又一次整合,电信运营商的数量由六家变为三家,业务种类由原有的部分产品变为全线产品许可经营,重组后各运营商未来的发展前景如何,消费者是否会获得更优质的服务,投资者如何选择这些公司的股票,都是市场普遍关注的焦点问题。
本文将采用自上而下的分析方法,首先对全球经济现状和行业发展历程进行分析,力求在整体上对该行业有一个全面的认识。之后采用市场结构和波特的五力分析方法对市场的竞争状况进行描述,并找到决定市场发展的关键因素。之后通过对3G应用后市场容量和市场份额的分析,预测三家电信运营商的收入水平。最后采用自由现金流折现法评估各家公司的企业价值和股票价值。评估结果显示,3G的全面普及需要更长的时间,不会在短期内完成,但三家电信运营商均会因3G业务而获益,其中中国移动和中国联通相对于目前的价位而言具有更高的投资价值。同时,行业垄断的格局不会因重组而改变,但市场竞争会更加激烈,消费者有可能因此而获益。
In mid 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, which has become an important turning point in the global economy. U.S. dollar, as the international currency, continues to depreciate with mass of commodity such as oil and agricultural products suffering their prices falling down. Meanwhile, the U.S. household consuming expenditure continues to decrease while financial institutions are facing bankruptcy and acquisitions, with the unemployment rate is constantly soaring up, all of that are just slowing the global economy down into a period of deflation. Under such an international situation, China's economy will inevitably be seriously impacted with the fixed assets investment and net exports both falling, which makes stimulating domestic demand as the key to ensure a sustained and healthy economic growth. However, as one of the pillar industries, telecommunications suffers a minor impact from inflation till now. The industry restructuring based on 3G brings the industry a motivation of constant growth.
This paper, with the use of enterprise value evaluation model based on free cash flow, carries out a detailed analysis of the financial situation of the three operators of telecommunications after the restructuring. On the one hand, there is the projection of the impact on the whole industry and the future development of main corporations brought by the industry restructuring based on 3G business according to the current economic environment and the overall development of telecommunications in the past; on the other hand, it is an overall analysis of the three main operators after restructuring and the assessment of their own enterprise value to help investors with rational investing choices.
This paper first describes the background and purpose of study and points out that the research on this project has great significance in four areas. First of all, on the part of the whole industry, this restructuring based on 3G is not only the upgrading of mobile communications technology, but also the internal adjustments of Chinese telecommunications structure, which will affect the future development of the whole industry; Second, the trade integration and issue of licenses will increase competition within the industry, from which consumers are likely to benefit; What’s more, after the 3G business is carried out, the three main operators will invest nearly RMB 3,000 billion Yuan in the next three years, with the cost of the purchase of equipment accounting for more than 50%, which will have a direct impact on the revenues and competition among the industry's upstream businesses; Finally, the restructuring will affect the interests of many investors, and to analyze the impact of 3G business on enterprises in the industry can help investors with a clear understanding in the future development of the industry and determines a reasonable valuation range for business value. In the analysis of the enterprise value, the theory and method of value assessment are applied in this paper, therefore the latter part of the first chapter, according to the actual situation of objects, describes the origin and methods of the assessing theory of enterprise value in detail and selects the discounted cash flow method as the basic method of the analysis of this paper out from the commonly used Law of relative value, Law of economic profits and options pricing Law. At the same time, it provides the theoretical definition of free cash flow and points out the determining method of discount rate through the introduction of capital asset pricing model and the weighted average cost of capital.
In the second part of this thesis, there is an analysis mainly about the macro-economic background and industry situation, in which the analysis on macro-economic focuses on the impact on the value of listed companies and stock prices caused by various economic indicators and economic policies. The strategically advantageous analysis does a lot of help in mastering the overall changing trends in the stock market, to judge the investing value of the stock market, to understand the impact of changes in the global market on Chinese enterprises, as well as master the impact and direction of national macro-economic policies on the stock market. It also points out that Stimulating domestic demand becomes a core of China’s policy of maintaining a steady economic growth while controlling economy from excessive inflation in the current global context with inflation and telecommunications will play an important role in Chinese economic development. At the same time, it has a review of the development of Chinese telecommunications, and introduces the application of 3G on a global scale.
The third part mainly focuses on the analysis of the current status of the telecommunications market, including market structure, competition in the market, market income situation and cost structure, through the use of market structure and Porter's five forces model, while pointing out that the oligopoly structure leads to the assessment of excess profits, and per capita disposable income levels, market share, the quantity and quality of users, ARPU and MOU are key factors affecting the income level of telecom operators. The industry restructuring based on 3G will have an impact on the existing market demand and lead to the formation of a new value chain in the whole industry, which will results in the original market changing in product mix with content services gradually rising to an important position. Therefore, 3G will have a significant impact on the current market with the competitiveness of the original structure being broken. Especially in this consolidated background, because all of the major operators in the industry tend to balance in power, the future development will depend on who is able to have a more comprehensive grasp of the market and customers.
The fourth part, starting from China's telecommunications market as a whole, carries out an analysis and forecasting of the industry's overall revenue level and growth rate mainly through quantitative analysis. Through the analysis of historical income levels, whole population, distribution and growth, revenue and growth rate of the four major lines of business including 2G, 3G, fixed telephone and broadband, to estimate the income level and market share of the primary business of the three main operators after restructuring will provide the basic data for computing free cash flow and the value of enterprises in the next chapter.
In the fifth part, based on the revenue of the three operators in telecommunications in the following years, combined with financial statements of three companies in 2008, this paper forecasts the free cash flow and discount rate of those companies over the next 5 years and finally calculates the enterprise value and stock value of them.
Based on value analysis, this paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the overall situation of telecommunications after being restructured, focuses on the impact of the issue of 3G licenses on the industry structure, as well as the value change of the various telecom operators after restructuring. And the final result is: telecommunications will continue with the oligopoly structure, but the industry will become more intensively competitive; 3G businesses will grow rapidly but will not shake the dominance of the 2G business in a short term; the investing value in new China Mobile and the new China Unicom will become greater and greater.
本文将采用自上而下的分析方法,首先对全球经济现状和行业发展历程进行分析,力求在整体上对该行业有一个全面的认识。之后采用市场结构和波特的五力分析方法对市场的竞争状况进行描述,并找到决定市场发展的关键因素。之后通过对3G应用后市场容量和市场份额的分析,预测三家电信运营商的收入水平。最后采用自由现金流折现法评估各家公司的企业价值和股票价值。评估结果显示,3G的全面普及需要更长的时间,不会在短期内完成,但三家电信运营商均会因3G业务而获益,其中中国移动和中国联通相对于目前的价位而言具有更高的投资价值。同时,行业垄断的格局不会因重组而改变,但市场竞争会更加激烈,消费者有可能因此而获益。
In mid 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, which has become an important turning point in the global economy. U.S. dollar, as the international currency, continues to depreciate with mass of commodity such as oil and agricultural products suffering their prices falling down. Meanwhile, the U.S. household consuming expenditure continues to decrease while financial institutions are facing bankruptcy and acquisitions, with the unemployment rate is constantly soaring up, all of that are just slowing the global economy down into a period of deflation. Under such an international situation, China's economy will inevitably be seriously impacted with the fixed assets investment and net exports both falling, which makes stimulating domestic demand as the key to ensure a sustained and healthy economic growth. However, as one of the pillar industries, telecommunications suffers a minor impact from inflation till now. The industry restructuring based on 3G brings the industry a motivation of constant growth.
This paper, with the use of enterprise value evaluation model based on free cash flow, carries out a detailed analysis of the financial situation of the three operators of telecommunications after the restructuring. On the one hand, there is the projection of the impact on the whole industry and the future development of main corporations brought by the industry restructuring based on 3G business according to the current economic environment and the overall development of telecommunications in the past; on the other hand, it is an overall analysis of the three main operators after restructuring and the assessment of their own enterprise value to help investors with rational investing choices.
This paper first describes the background and purpose of study and points out that the research on this project has great significance in four areas. First of all, on the part of the whole industry, this restructuring based on 3G is not only the upgrading of mobile communications technology, but also the internal adjustments of Chinese telecommunications structure, which will affect the future development of the whole industry; Second, the trade integration and issue of licenses will increase competition within the industry, from which consumers are likely to benefit; What’s more, after the 3G business is carried out, the three main operators will invest nearly RMB 3,000 billion Yuan in the next three years, with the cost of the purchase of equipment accounting for more than 50%, which will have a direct impact on the revenues and competition among the industry's upstream businesses; Finally, the restructuring will affect the interests of many investors, and to analyze the impact of 3G business on enterprises in the industry can help investors with a clear understanding in the future development of the industry and determines a reasonable valuation range for business value. In the analysis of the enterprise value, the theory and method of value assessment are applied in this paper, therefore the latter part of the first chapter, according to the actual situation of objects, describes the origin and methods of the assessing theory of enterprise value in detail and selects the discounted cash flow method as the basic method of the analysis of this paper out from the commonly used Law of relative value, Law of economic profits and options pricing Law. At the same time, it provides the theoretical definition of free cash flow and points out the determining method of discount rate through the introduction of capital asset pricing model and the weighted average cost of capital.
In the second part of this thesis, there is an analysis mainly about the macro-economic background and industry situation, in which the analysis on macro-economic focuses on the impact on the value of listed companies and stock prices caused by various economic indicators and economic policies. The strategically advantageous analysis does a lot of help in mastering the overall changing trends in the stock market, to judge the investing value of the stock market, to understand the impact of changes in the global market on Chinese enterprises, as well as master the impact and direction of national macro-economic policies on the stock market. It also points out that Stimulating domestic demand becomes a core of China’s policy of maintaining a steady economic growth while controlling economy from excessive inflation in the current global context with inflation and telecommunications will play an important role in Chinese economic development. At the same time, it has a review of the development of Chinese telecommunications, and introduces the application of 3G on a global scale.
The third part mainly focuses on the analysis of the current status of the telecommunications market, including market structure, competition in the market, market income situation and cost structure, through the use of market structure and Porter's five forces model, while pointing out that the oligopoly structure leads to the assessment of excess profits, and per capita disposable income levels, market share, the quantity and quality of users, ARPU and MOU are key factors affecting the income level of telecom operators. The industry restructuring based on 3G will have an impact on the existing market demand and lead to the formation of a new value chain in the whole industry, which will results in the original market changing in product mix with content services gradually rising to an important position. Therefore, 3G will have a significant impact on the current market with the competitiveness of the original structure being broken. Especially in this consolidated background, because all of the major operators in the industry tend to balance in power, the future development will depend on who is able to have a more comprehensive grasp of the market and customers.
The fourth part, starting from China's telecommunications market as a whole, carries out an analysis and forecasting of the industry's overall revenue level and growth rate mainly through quantitative analysis. Through the analysis of historical income levels, whole population, distribution and growth, revenue and growth rate of the four major lines of business including 2G, 3G, fixed telephone and broadband, to estimate the income level and market share of the primary business of the three main operators after restructuring will provide the basic data for computing free cash flow and the value of enterprises in the next chapter.
In the fifth part, based on the revenue of the three operators in telecommunications in the following years, combined with financial statements of three companies in 2008, this paper forecasts the free cash flow and discount rate of those companies over the next 5 years and finally calculates the enterprise value and stock value of them.
Based on value analysis, this paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the overall situation of telecommunications after being restructured, focuses on the impact of the issue of 3G licenses on the industry structure, as well as the value change of the various telecom operators after restructuring. And the final result is: telecommunications will continue with the oligopoly structure, but the industry will become more intensively competitive; 3G businesses will grow rapidly but will not shake the dominance of the 2G business in a short term; the investing value in new China Mobile and the new China Unicom will become greater and greater.
引文
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[2] F·Modigliani,Merton H.Miller.The cost of Capital Corporation Financean the theory of investment.Journal of the Ameriean Economic Review, l958:261~297.
[3] IringFisher, The Nature of Capital and Income. New York:Macmillam,l906:1~21.
[4] Michael C J.Agency cost of free flow,corporate finance,and takeovers[J] American Economic Review,1986.8:70-75.
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[21] S.Sunder,Stock Price and Risk Related Accounting Changes in Inventory Valuation[J],Accounting Review,1973.4(50):302~315.
[22] Kaplan,R.S and R.Roll, Invest Evaluation of Accounting Information:Some Empirical Evidence[J],Journal of Business,1972(45):225~257.
[23] J.J.McConnell and C.J.Muscarella, Corporate Capital Expenditure Decisions and the Market Value of the Firm[J],Journal of Financial Economics 1985(14):399-422.
[24] A.Rappaport, CFOs and Strategists:Forging a Common Framework[J],Harvard Business Review,1992:84-91.
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[27]许晓峰,资产评估理论与实务[M],上海:立信会计出版社,1998。
[28]中国证券协会,证券投资分析[M],北京:中国财政经济出版社,2008。
[29]王荧,徐颖,王军,经济统计学[M],北京:机械工业出版社,2005。
[30]傅家骥,仝允桓,工业技术经济学[M],北京:清华大学出版社,1996。
[31]符蓉,黄继东,干胜道:“自由现金流量”概念及计算方法分析[J],会计之友,2007年第1期下。
[32]胡文燕:DCF模型下公司3种价值的估计与比较[J],科技情报开发与经济,2007年第17卷第33期。
[33]高元文:不确定性与企业价值评估的风险预测[J],经济研究参考,2006年第37期。
[34]唐文君:财务报表分析与企业价值研究[J],财会研究,2007年第8期。
[35]高峻:对公司价值评估中自由现金流量的辨析[J],统计与咨询,2007年第4期。
[36]饶健:《基于价值创造的企业综合财务分析体系核心指标的选择》,《科技信息》,2006年第8期。‘
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[2] F·Modigliani,Merton H.Miller.The cost of Capital Corporation Financean the theory of investment.Journal of the Ameriean Economic Review, l958:261~297.
[3] IringFisher, The Nature of Capital and Income. New York:Macmillam,l906:1~21.
[4] Michael C J.Agency cost of free flow,corporate finance,and takeovers[J] American Economic Review,1986.8:70-75.
[5] Richard A B,Stewart C M.Principles of corporate Finance (Fifth Edition) [M].American:Mc Graw-Hill Education,1999.998~1002.
[6] Damodaran A.Investment valuation,tools and techniques for detemining the value of any asset[M].American:John Viley&Sons, Inc,1996.
[7] Eugene F.Brighham and Joel f.Houston, Fundamentals of Financial Management[M], American,1998:31~33.
[8] Frank k.Reilly and Keith C.Brown, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management[M],USA,2000:46
[9] Gerald I.White,Ashwinpaul C.Sondhi,and Dov Fried,The Analysis and Use of Financial Statements[M], American,1998
[10] Zvi Bodie,Alex Kane,Alan J.Marcus,(Investment),Irwin[M] cgraw-Hill 1996:74～90.
[11] Tom.Copeland,Evaluating natural resource investment,Journal of Finance [M],1993(38):114.
[12] [美]迈克尔·波特,竞争战略[M],北京:华夏出版社,1997。
[13] [美]科普兰,价值评估:公司价值的衡量和管理[M],北京:中国大百科全书出版社,1998。
[14] [美]汤姆·科普兰等,价值评估[M],贾辉然等译,北京:中国大百科全书出版社,1997。
[15] [美]斯蒂芬A·罗斯等,公司理财[M],吴世农等译,北京:机械工业出版社,2007。
[16] [美]布瑞德福特·康纳尔,公司价值评估[M],北京:华夏出版社,2001。
[17] [美]肯尼斯·汉克尔等,现金流量与证券分析[M],张凯等译,北京:华夏出版社,2001。
[18] [美]戴维·G·卢恩伯格等,投资科学[M],沈丽萍等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005。
[19] [美]威廉·G·谢泼德,产业组织经济学[M],张志奇等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007。
[20] [美]保罗·萨缪尔森,威廉·诺德豪斯,经济学[M],萧琛等译,北京:华夏出版社,1999。
[21] S.Sunder,Stock Price and Risk Related Accounting Changes in Inventory Valuation[J],Accounting Review,1973.4(50):302~315.
[22] Kaplan,R.S and R.Roll, Invest Evaluation of Accounting Information:Some Empirical Evidence[J],Journal of Business,1972(45):225~257.
[23] J.J.McConnell and C.J.Muscarella, Corporate Capital Expenditure Decisions and the Market Value of the Firm[J],Journal of Financial Economics 1985(14):399-422.
[24] A.Rappaport, CFOs and Strategists:Forging a Common Framework[J],Harvard Business Review,1992:84-91.
[25] H.Hong,R.A.Kaplan,and G.Mandelker, Pooling versus Purchase:The Effects of Accounting or Mergers on Stock Prices[J],Accounting Review 1978(53):31-74
[26]金永红,叶中行,奚玉芹,价值评估[M],北京:清华大学出版社,2004。
[27]许晓峰,资产评估理论与实务[M],上海:立信会计出版社,1998。
[28]中国证券协会,证券投资分析[M],北京:中国财政经济出版社,2008。
[29]王荧,徐颖,王军,经济统计学[M],北京:机械工业出版社,2005。
[30]傅家骥,仝允桓,工业技术经济学[M],北京:清华大学出版社,1996。
[31]符蓉,黄继东,干胜道:“自由现金流量”概念及计算方法分析[J],会计之友,2007年第1期下。
[32]胡文燕:DCF模型下公司3种价值的估计与比较[J],科技情报开发与经济,2007年第17卷第33期。
[33]高元文:不确定性与企业价值评估的风险预测[J],经济研究参考,2006年第37期。
[34]唐文君:财务报表分析与企业价值研究[J],财会研究,2007年第8期。
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