基于系统动力学的供应链管理研究
|
摘要
随着经济全球化进程的加快和科学技术的迅猛发展,今天的市场竞争日趋激烈,且竞争将是供应链与供应链之间的竞争。伴随着我国市场经济体制与现代企业制度的逐步建立与完善,国内企业面临的市场竞争也呈现出国际化和一体化的趋势,为了赢得生存和发展的空间,企业必须打破传统的地域、行业的思维限制,将目光从企业内部生产过程管理转向整个产品生命周期的内外部资源与合作伙伴管理,围绕企业的核心能力形成高效的供应链,并在市场中寻求供应链所有成员的共生共赢。但完整的供应链管理理论体系尚未形成,尚存在多处难点问题有待进一步研究、探索,如供应链管理中的目标冲突现象、供应链管理中的匹配协调问题、供应链牛鞭效应问题、对环境友好性问题等。在这种背景之下,本文应用系统动力学这一十分适用于研究复杂系统动态行为的理论方法,来从定性分析和定量仿真的角度研究供应链管理中的牛鞭效应问题及与之息息相关的库存管理问题和绿色闭环供应链问题,力图使本文的研究工作系统化、深入化,使研究内容和结果能够有效地应用到供应链管理实践中去。
本文第一章首先梳理、分析了供应链管理实践中的难点问题,认为供应链管理中的目标冲突、匹配协调、牛鞭效应、环境友好是供应链管理研究中值得深入探讨的问题。指出应用系统动力学方法对供应链这一复杂系统进行有效建模,通过对模型的仿真可以从宏观、定性的角度和微观、定量角度分析研究供应链系统,对其结构进行改进和参数优化。本文第二章分析研究了供应链的结构分类、供应链管理的主要研究方法以及供应链建模的方法与分类。分析了系统动力学的相关理论与特点,阐述了系统动力学的建模规则,以典型的一阶、二阶系统的动态行为模式研究了系统动力学的建模原理,建立了简单库存管理和简单供应链系统的系统动力学模型,并进行了仿真分析。
本文第三章阐述了供应链的牛鞭效应,分析了供应链结构与牛鞭效应的关系,并研究了牛鞭效应对供应链的危害。分析总结了采用控制理论知识和统计预测理论对供应链的牛鞭效应的定量化研究,得出牛鞭效应的定量表达式,并扩展到多阶供应链模型中,分析讨论了零售商备货期、基础数据观测周期数、自相关系数及平滑系数对供应链牛鞭效应的影响。接着,通过系统动力学方法分析了以制造商、分销商、零售商组成的多级供应链系统的内在流程、结构及特点,构建了三级供应链系统动力学模型,对模型进行了相关测试、仿真,并对模型进行了改进,得出调整后的模型。通过对模型在多种不同顾客需求情况下的动态仿真,定性地分析整个供应链系统的动态行为、各级成员的行为影响及牛鞭效应产生的原因。通过对两个供应链系统动力学模型分别在顾客需求随时间变化及顾客需求随机变化两种情况下的动态仿真,定义了牛鞭效应表达式,定量地比较供应链中各级成员所面临的需求波动放大的现象,分析了供应链中的延迟环节对供应链牛鞭效应的影响。
本文第四章阐述了库存管理的基本概念、库存的功能与分类,总结了传统库存管理方法。以分销商、零售商和终端客户组成的供应链为对象系统,建立了供应链传统库存管理方法的系统动力学模型,对模型进行了系统动力学的相关测试与仿真。通过对模型在顾客需求随机变化情况下的动态仿真,定性地分析了模型中分销商环路和零售商环路中主要的库存、需求等变量的动态行为,比较了两个环路中的订单累积量运行状态。对仿真结果做了定量比较,从结果可以看到传统库存管理方法会产生较严重的牛鞭效应。认为牛鞭效应的产生是由系统的内在结构决定的,是传统库存管理方法在供应链系统中应用的必然表现,应该从系统的结构和库存管理方法的革新入手去解决系统的内生性问题。接着,论文阐述了供应链环境下库存管理的理念,分析讨论了供应商管理库存、联合库存管理以及预测、计划与补充等三种策略。以原料供应商、制造商、分销商、零售商和终端顾客组成的供应链系统为对象系统,构建了供应链库存管理模式的系统动力学模型,对模型进行了测试和仿真,证明了有效性。通过对模型在顾客需求突然变化、随时间变化以及随机变化情况下的动态仿真,定性地分析了整个供应链系统的动态行为,分析比较了模型中各供应链成员的库存、需求等变量的动态行为,并与第三章的仿真结果进行了比较分析。对仿真结果做了定量化研究,定义了模型中各级成员的牛鞭效应表达式,并计算了牛鞭效应值,结果显示供应链库存管理模型的牛鞭效应与前述模型相比大大降低,定量地说明了供应链库存管理模式较传统库存管理模式的优越性。再次证明了减小牛鞭效应应该从系统的结构和库存管理方法的革新入手,以此解决系统的内生性问题。
本文第五章分析了绿色供应链产生的背景,阐述了绿色供应链管理的概念、内涵与特征,分析了与传统供应链系统的异同,讨论了绿色供应链管理的实施的动因与阻力等问题。以制造商、分销商、零售商、终端顾客、产品回收商、再制造商组成的多阶绿色闭坏供应链为对象系统,构建了绿色供应链的系统动力学模型,对模型进行了相关测试,证明模型的有效性。通过对模型在顾客需求突然变化和随机变化情况下的动态仿真,定性地分析了绿色供应链系统整体的动态行为,明确了制造商的回收能力对整个闭环供应链的影响。在顾客需求会发生突然变化的情况下,对绿色供应链模型中制造商采取不同废旧产品回收政策的情况进行了动态仿真,定量地研究了废旧产品回收率、回收产品数量、再制造率、新产品生产率、企业绿色形象等变量之间的相互影响关系及动态行为模式,深入地分析了各种动态行为模式的产生原因。
Along with the speeding up of the progress of economic globalization and the fierce development of science and technology, today's market competition is gradually vigorous, and the present competition will be the competition among the supply chains. And accompanied with the working up and consummating of our country's market economy system and modern enterprise system, the local enterprises are confronted with the same competition which presents the internationalization and holistic trend. For the sake of getting space of survival and development, the enterprises have to break the traditional restriction of region, industry and thinking. They must attach importance not only to the internal production process management in their enterprises, but also to the inside and exterior resources of the whole product life cycle, and to the management of colleagues' cooperation. They must buildup high efficient supply chain by encircling their own kernel ability to seek the symbiosis and total wins of all the supply chain members in the market. But the integrated system ifo of supply chain management haven't come into being yet, there are still many crux problems needed to be further explored and investigated, such as the target conflict phenomenon in the supply chain management, the matching and harmonizing problem in supply chain management, the bull whip effect of supply chain, and the environment amity problems. Under this kind of circumstance, this thesis employs the system dynamics, which is an excellent theory for researching dynamic behavior of complex system, to research the supply chain's bull whip effect problem; closely related inventory management problems and green supply chain problems form the angle of qualitative analysis and fix quantified simulation. The author is trying hard to make this study systematization and thoroughness, enabling the research contents and conclusions could be applied effectively in the practice of supply chain management.
In chapter 1, some complicated problems in supply chain pratices are discussed and it is put forward that there are some aspects worthy of further discussion including target conflict, matching and harmonizing, bull whip effect and environment amity. System dynamics can be used to model the complicated supply chain system, to analyze the system from macroscopic qualitative view and microscopic quantitative one by means of simulation, and to get structure improvement and indexes optimization.
In chapter 2, the structural categories of supply chain is analysed, as well as the main methods to supply chain management, the measures and classification to supply chain modelling. Based on the theories, characteristics and modelling rules of system dynamics, the dynamic behaviour patterns of the typical one echelon and two echelons systems are used to analyse the modelling principles of system dynamics. Then, the system dynamic models of simple inventory management and supply chain system are constructed and simulated.
Bull whip effect is involved in chapter 3. The relationship between supply chain structure and bull whip effect is discussed, as well as the negative influence of the latter to the former. By means of control and prediction theory on the bull whip effect in supply chain, the basic quantitative research is carried out to get mathematical formula of bull whip effect, and then, it is extended to the multi-echelon supply chain models, used to discuss the influence on bull whip effect exerted by retailer's stock up time, basic data observation periodicity, and correlation coefficient, smoothness coefficient. According to the inner procedure, structure and characteristics of multi-echelon comprised of manufacturers, distributers and retailers, the three echelon supply chain system dynamic models are constructed, tested, simulated and ameliorated to get improved ones. In the dynamic simulation under different demand conditions, it is analyzed that the dynamic behaviour of the whole supply chain system, behavioural influences of all levels' members and the causes to bull whip effect. Two system dynamic models are constructed under different demand conditions, changing with time and changing randomly respectively, based on which, the formula of bull whip effect are defined to compare the demand fluctuation magnifying of all levels' members in supply chain, and to analyse the influence of delay on bull whip effect.
Chapter 4 is mainly about inventory. For a supply chain made up of distributors, retailers and final customers, system dynamic models are constructed using traditional inventory management methods, which are tested and simulated. Dynamic simulation of models under random demand conditions is used to analyse the dynamic behaviour of main variables such as inventory and demand in distributor and retailer loop, within which the order forms' accumulation is compared. It can be concluded that using traditional inventory management methods can cause serious bull whip effect by comparison of the simulation results. The bull whip effect is inherent with the supply chain system's structure and inevitable in application of traditional inventory management, the inner characteristics of which can be dealt with by way of system structure analysis and inventory management innovation. Three strategies are analysed, including Vendor Managed Inventory, Joint Management Inventory, and Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment. Based on a system comprised of vendors, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and final customers, system dynamic models with supply chain inventory management patterns are constructed, tested, simulated, and proved valid. After simulation under different demand conditions, including sudden changing, time changing and random changing, the dynamic behaviour of the whole system is analyzed, and the variables such as the partners' inventory and demand are compared reciprocally and with the simulation results in chapter 3 by examination of the results, bull whip effect formula of different partners are defined and calculated, whose values show that the bull whip effect of supply chain inventory management models is much less than that of traditional ones, and the models have more advantages. It also demonstrated again that the means to reduce bull whip effect is system structure analysis and inventory management innovation.
In chapter 5, green supply chain, its difference with traditional supply chain, and the causes and difficulties in practice are discussed. The objective system is traditional supply chain but with much focuses on recycler of waste products and remanufacturer, this chapter comprises a multi-echelon closed loop supply chain system, system dynamics models for which are constructed, tested and prove valid. In dynamic simulation of models under different demand conditions including sudden changing and random changing, the dynamic behaviour of the whole green supply chain is analysed, as well as the influence of the reclaim ability of manufacturers on the whole closed loop. Under sudden changing demand conditions, dynamic simulation of different reclaim strategies of manufacturers in green supply chain show the reciprocal influence and dynamic behaviour patterns of the variables such as the reclaim ratio, the reclaim quantities, the re-manufacture ratio, the new product ratio and the green image of enterprises. Causes for different dynamic behaviour patterns are analyzed thoroughly.
本文第一章首先梳理、分析了供应链管理实践中的难点问题,认为供应链管理中的目标冲突、匹配协调、牛鞭效应、环境友好是供应链管理研究中值得深入探讨的问题。指出应用系统动力学方法对供应链这一复杂系统进行有效建模,通过对模型的仿真可以从宏观、定性的角度和微观、定量角度分析研究供应链系统,对其结构进行改进和参数优化。本文第二章分析研究了供应链的结构分类、供应链管理的主要研究方法以及供应链建模的方法与分类。分析了系统动力学的相关理论与特点,阐述了系统动力学的建模规则,以典型的一阶、二阶系统的动态行为模式研究了系统动力学的建模原理,建立了简单库存管理和简单供应链系统的系统动力学模型,并进行了仿真分析。
本文第三章阐述了供应链的牛鞭效应,分析了供应链结构与牛鞭效应的关系,并研究了牛鞭效应对供应链的危害。分析总结了采用控制理论知识和统计预测理论对供应链的牛鞭效应的定量化研究,得出牛鞭效应的定量表达式,并扩展到多阶供应链模型中,分析讨论了零售商备货期、基础数据观测周期数、自相关系数及平滑系数对供应链牛鞭效应的影响。接着,通过系统动力学方法分析了以制造商、分销商、零售商组成的多级供应链系统的内在流程、结构及特点,构建了三级供应链系统动力学模型,对模型进行了相关测试、仿真,并对模型进行了改进,得出调整后的模型。通过对模型在多种不同顾客需求情况下的动态仿真,定性地分析整个供应链系统的动态行为、各级成员的行为影响及牛鞭效应产生的原因。通过对两个供应链系统动力学模型分别在顾客需求随时间变化及顾客需求随机变化两种情况下的动态仿真,定义了牛鞭效应表达式,定量地比较供应链中各级成员所面临的需求波动放大的现象,分析了供应链中的延迟环节对供应链牛鞭效应的影响。
本文第四章阐述了库存管理的基本概念、库存的功能与分类,总结了传统库存管理方法。以分销商、零售商和终端客户组成的供应链为对象系统,建立了供应链传统库存管理方法的系统动力学模型,对模型进行了系统动力学的相关测试与仿真。通过对模型在顾客需求随机变化情况下的动态仿真,定性地分析了模型中分销商环路和零售商环路中主要的库存、需求等变量的动态行为,比较了两个环路中的订单累积量运行状态。对仿真结果做了定量比较,从结果可以看到传统库存管理方法会产生较严重的牛鞭效应。认为牛鞭效应的产生是由系统的内在结构决定的,是传统库存管理方法在供应链系统中应用的必然表现,应该从系统的结构和库存管理方法的革新入手去解决系统的内生性问题。接着,论文阐述了供应链环境下库存管理的理念,分析讨论了供应商管理库存、联合库存管理以及预测、计划与补充等三种策略。以原料供应商、制造商、分销商、零售商和终端顾客组成的供应链系统为对象系统,构建了供应链库存管理模式的系统动力学模型,对模型进行了测试和仿真,证明了有效性。通过对模型在顾客需求突然变化、随时间变化以及随机变化情况下的动态仿真,定性地分析了整个供应链系统的动态行为,分析比较了模型中各供应链成员的库存、需求等变量的动态行为,并与第三章的仿真结果进行了比较分析。对仿真结果做了定量化研究,定义了模型中各级成员的牛鞭效应表达式,并计算了牛鞭效应值,结果显示供应链库存管理模型的牛鞭效应与前述模型相比大大降低,定量地说明了供应链库存管理模式较传统库存管理模式的优越性。再次证明了减小牛鞭效应应该从系统的结构和库存管理方法的革新入手,以此解决系统的内生性问题。
本文第五章分析了绿色供应链产生的背景,阐述了绿色供应链管理的概念、内涵与特征,分析了与传统供应链系统的异同,讨论了绿色供应链管理的实施的动因与阻力等问题。以制造商、分销商、零售商、终端顾客、产品回收商、再制造商组成的多阶绿色闭坏供应链为对象系统,构建了绿色供应链的系统动力学模型,对模型进行了相关测试,证明模型的有效性。通过对模型在顾客需求突然变化和随机变化情况下的动态仿真,定性地分析了绿色供应链系统整体的动态行为,明确了制造商的回收能力对整个闭环供应链的影响。在顾客需求会发生突然变化的情况下,对绿色供应链模型中制造商采取不同废旧产品回收政策的情况进行了动态仿真,定量地研究了废旧产品回收率、回收产品数量、再制造率、新产品生产率、企业绿色形象等变量之间的相互影响关系及动态行为模式,深入地分析了各种动态行为模式的产生原因。
Along with the speeding up of the progress of economic globalization and the fierce development of science and technology, today's market competition is gradually vigorous, and the present competition will be the competition among the supply chains. And accompanied with the working up and consummating of our country's market economy system and modern enterprise system, the local enterprises are confronted with the same competition which presents the internationalization and holistic trend. For the sake of getting space of survival and development, the enterprises have to break the traditional restriction of region, industry and thinking. They must attach importance not only to the internal production process management in their enterprises, but also to the inside and exterior resources of the whole product life cycle, and to the management of colleagues' cooperation. They must buildup high efficient supply chain by encircling their own kernel ability to seek the symbiosis and total wins of all the supply chain members in the market. But the integrated system ifo of supply chain management haven't come into being yet, there are still many crux problems needed to be further explored and investigated, such as the target conflict phenomenon in the supply chain management, the matching and harmonizing problem in supply chain management, the bull whip effect of supply chain, and the environment amity problems. Under this kind of circumstance, this thesis employs the system dynamics, which is an excellent theory for researching dynamic behavior of complex system, to research the supply chain's bull whip effect problem; closely related inventory management problems and green supply chain problems form the angle of qualitative analysis and fix quantified simulation. The author is trying hard to make this study systematization and thoroughness, enabling the research contents and conclusions could be applied effectively in the practice of supply chain management.
In chapter 1, some complicated problems in supply chain pratices are discussed and it is put forward that there are some aspects worthy of further discussion including target conflict, matching and harmonizing, bull whip effect and environment amity. System dynamics can be used to model the complicated supply chain system, to analyze the system from macroscopic qualitative view and microscopic quantitative one by means of simulation, and to get structure improvement and indexes optimization.
In chapter 2, the structural categories of supply chain is analysed, as well as the main methods to supply chain management, the measures and classification to supply chain modelling. Based on the theories, characteristics and modelling rules of system dynamics, the dynamic behaviour patterns of the typical one echelon and two echelons systems are used to analyse the modelling principles of system dynamics. Then, the system dynamic models of simple inventory management and supply chain system are constructed and simulated.
Bull whip effect is involved in chapter 3. The relationship between supply chain structure and bull whip effect is discussed, as well as the negative influence of the latter to the former. By means of control and prediction theory on the bull whip effect in supply chain, the basic quantitative research is carried out to get mathematical formula of bull whip effect, and then, it is extended to the multi-echelon supply chain models, used to discuss the influence on bull whip effect exerted by retailer's stock up time, basic data observation periodicity, and correlation coefficient, smoothness coefficient. According to the inner procedure, structure and characteristics of multi-echelon comprised of manufacturers, distributers and retailers, the three echelon supply chain system dynamic models are constructed, tested, simulated and ameliorated to get improved ones. In the dynamic simulation under different demand conditions, it is analyzed that the dynamic behaviour of the whole supply chain system, behavioural influences of all levels' members and the causes to bull whip effect. Two system dynamic models are constructed under different demand conditions, changing with time and changing randomly respectively, based on which, the formula of bull whip effect are defined to compare the demand fluctuation magnifying of all levels' members in supply chain, and to analyse the influence of delay on bull whip effect.
Chapter 4 is mainly about inventory. For a supply chain made up of distributors, retailers and final customers, system dynamic models are constructed using traditional inventory management methods, which are tested and simulated. Dynamic simulation of models under random demand conditions is used to analyse the dynamic behaviour of main variables such as inventory and demand in distributor and retailer loop, within which the order forms' accumulation is compared. It can be concluded that using traditional inventory management methods can cause serious bull whip effect by comparison of the simulation results. The bull whip effect is inherent with the supply chain system's structure and inevitable in application of traditional inventory management, the inner characteristics of which can be dealt with by way of system structure analysis and inventory management innovation. Three strategies are analysed, including Vendor Managed Inventory, Joint Management Inventory, and Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment. Based on a system comprised of vendors, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and final customers, system dynamic models with supply chain inventory management patterns are constructed, tested, simulated, and proved valid. After simulation under different demand conditions, including sudden changing, time changing and random changing, the dynamic behaviour of the whole system is analyzed, and the variables such as the partners' inventory and demand are compared reciprocally and with the simulation results in chapter 3 by examination of the results, bull whip effect formula of different partners are defined and calculated, whose values show that the bull whip effect of supply chain inventory management models is much less than that of traditional ones, and the models have more advantages. It also demonstrated again that the means to reduce bull whip effect is system structure analysis and inventory management innovation.
In chapter 5, green supply chain, its difference with traditional supply chain, and the causes and difficulties in practice are discussed. The objective system is traditional supply chain but with much focuses on recycler of waste products and remanufacturer, this chapter comprises a multi-echelon closed loop supply chain system, system dynamics models for which are constructed, tested and prove valid. In dynamic simulation of models under different demand conditions including sudden changing and random changing, the dynamic behaviour of the whole green supply chain is analysed, as well as the influence of the reclaim ability of manufacturers on the whole closed loop. Under sudden changing demand conditions, dynamic simulation of different reclaim strategies of manufacturers in green supply chain show the reciprocal influence and dynamic behaviour patterns of the variables such as the reclaim ratio, the reclaim quantities, the re-manufacture ratio, the new product ratio and the green image of enterprises. Causes for different dynamic behaviour patterns are analyzed thoroughly.
引文
[1]Christopher M.Logistics and Supply Chain Management:Strategies for Reducing Costs and Improving Services[M].Financial Times,London:Pitman Publishing,1992.
[2]白世贞,王文利.供应链复杂系统资源流建模与仿真[M].科学出版社,2008.
[3]Chopra S,Meindl P.Supply chain management:strategy,planning,and operation[M].Prentice Hall,2001.
[4]Shapiro J.Modeling the Supply Chain[M].Thomson Learning Inc.,2002.
[5]赵林度.供应链与物流管理:理论与实务[M].机械工业出版社,2003.
[6]马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理[M].机械工业出版社,2000.
[7]唐纳德·J·鲍尔索克斯,戴维·J·克劳斯著.林国龙,宋柏,沙梅译.物流管理--供应链过程的一体化[M].机械工业出版社,1999.
[8]大卫·辛奇·利维,菲利普.凯明斯基等著.季建华等译.供应链设计与管理:概念、战略与案例研究[M].上海远东出版社,2000.
[9]宋华,胡左浩.现代物流与供应链管理[M].经济管理出版社,2000.
[10]朱道立,龚国华等.物流和供应链管理[M].复旦大学出版社,2001.
[11]陈安,刘鲁.供应链管理问题的研究现状及挑战[J].系统工程学报.2000,15(2):179-186.
[12]陈志祥,马士华,陈荣秋.SCM建模理论与方法研究[J].管理科学学报.1999,2(1):67-71.
[13]柴跃廷,刘义.敏捷供需链管理[M].清华大学出版社.2001.
[14]Forrester.Industrial dynamics[M].US,Cambridge Mass:MIT Press,1961.
[15]彭扬,伍蓓著.物流系统优化与仿真[M].中国物资出版社.2007.167-169
[16]Forrester.World dynamics[M].US,Cambridge Mass:MIT Press,1971.
[17]Forrester著,胡汝鼎,杨通谊 译.工业动力学[M].科学出版社,1985.
[18]Douglas J Thomas,Paul M Griffin.Coordinated supply chain managemet [J].European Journal of Operational Research,1996,94:1-15.
[19]Bhatnagar R,Chandra P.Models for multi-plant coordination[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1993,67:141-160.
[20]Carter J R,Miller J G.The impact of alternative vendor/buyer communication structures on the quality of purchased material[J].Decision Science,1989,20:759-776.
[21]Dale B G,Lascalles D M,et al.Supply chain management and development[J].Managing Quality,1994,292-315.
[22]Seferlis Panos,Giannelos Nikolaos F.A two-layered optimization-based control strategy for multi-echelon supply chain networks[J].Computers and Chemical Engineering,2004,28(5):799-809.
[23]Ellinger Alexander E.Improving marketing/logistics cross-functional collaboration in the supply chain[J].Industrial Marketing Management,2000,29(1):85-96.
[24]Perea-López,Edgar,Ydstie,et al.A model predictive control strategy for supply chain optimization[J].Computers and Chemical Engineering,2003,27(8-9):1201-1218.
[25]杨晓春,于戈.面向虚拟企业信息集成的扩展联邦模式[J].计算机集成制造系统,2001,7(3):19-25.
[26]周伯生,樊东平.零时间:21世纪企业的概念构架[J].中国机械工程,2000,11(1):89-92.
[27]蒋新松.21世纪企业的主要模式--动态联盟[J].计算机集成制造系统,1996,2(4):3-8.
[28]高建民,林志航,马力.动态联盟与企业集团[J].第五届中国计算机集成制造系统(CIMS)学术会议论文集.1998,2-8:2-14.
[29]陈志祥.供应链管理[M].机械工业出版社,2001.
[30]徐晓飞,卤德臣.动态联盟企业组织方法体系[J].计算机集成制造系统,1999,5(1):7-12.
[31]陈良华,李文.供应链管理的演进[J].台北大学学报,2004,(4):102-113.
[32]L J Chen,A Paulraj.Understanding supply chain management:Critical research and a theoretical framework[J].International Journal of Production Research,2004,42(1):131-163.
[33]森尼尔.乔普瑞,彼得·梅因德尔.供应链管理:战略、规划与运营(美) [M].北京社会科学文献出版社,2003.
[34]Morash E A,S R Clinton.Supply chain integration:Customer value through collaborative closeness versus operational excellence[J].Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice,1998,6(4):104-120.
[35]Wikner J,Towill D R,Naim M.Smoothing supply chain dynamics[J].International Journal of Production Economy,1991,22(3):231-248.
[36]Giannoccaro I,Pontrandolfo P,Supply chain coordination by revenue sharing contracts[J].International Journal of Production Economy,2004,89(2):131-139.
[37]A Gunasekaran,E Ngai.Information systems in supply chain integration and management[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,159:269-279.
[38]Terry Anthony Byrd,Nancy W Davidson.Examining possible antecedents of IT impact on the supply chain and its effect on firm performance[J].Information and Management,2003,41:243-253.
[39]Iyer A V,Bergen M E.Quick response in manufacturer-retailer channels[J].Management Science,1997,42:559-570.
[40]Buzzell et al.Channel streamline distribution[J].Sloan Management Review,1995,85-96.
[41]Kaipia R,Holmstrom J,Tanskanen K.VMI:What are you losing if you let your customer place orders[J],Production Planning & Control,2002,13(1):17-25.
[42]张力菠.供应链环境下库存控制的系统动力学仿真研究[D].南京理工大学博士论文,2006.3.
[43]但斌,张旭梅等.基于CPFR的供应链体系结构和运作研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2000,16(4):41-44.
[44]Lee H L,Padmanabhan V,Whang S.Information distortion in a supply chain:the bullwhip effect[J].Management science,1997,43(4):546-558.
[45]McCullen P,Towill D R.Diagnosis and reduction of bullwhip in supply chains[J].Supply Chain Management:An International Journal,2002,7(3):164-179.
[46]刘红.供应链牛鞭效应研究[D].上海海事大学博士论文,2006.10.
[47]蒋洪伟,韩文秀.绿色供应链管理:企业经营管理的趋势[J].中国人 口·资源与环境.2000,10(4):90-92.
[48]Joseph Sarkis.Theory and Methodology:Evaluating environmentally Conscious business practices[J].European Journal of Operational Research.1998,107:159-174.
[49]Beaman B M.Designing the green supply chain[J].Logistics Information Management.1999,12(4):332-342.
[50]陈果.惠普和戴尔的成功案例:CPC让企业如虎添翼.计算机世界网,http://www.ccw.com.cn.
[51]陈伟军,张红,徐学军.IBM公司跨国供应链管理.工业工程与管理,2002.3:67-70.
[52]海尔集团.以“市场链”为纽带的业务流程再造[J].企业管理,2001,1:23-28.
[53]张岩.以供应链优势打造新联想核心竞争力-访联想集团COO刘军[J].微机与应用,2006,7:56-59.
[54]Yahya S,Kingsman B.Vender rating for an entrepreneur development program:A study using the analytic hierarchy process method[J].Journal of Operational Research Society,1999,(50):916-930.
[55]Ricardo Ernst,Bardia Kamrad.Evaluation of supply chain structures through modularization and postponement[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2000,(124):495-510.
[56]万杰,王楠.供应链结构对牛鞭效应的影响研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2001,(5).
[57]Sunil Chopra,Peter Meindl.Supply chain management:Strategy,planning,and operation[M],清华大学出版社,Prentice Hall,2001.
[58]Bowersox D J,Morash E A.The Integration of marketing flows in channels of distribution[J].European Journal Of Marketing,1989,23(2):58-67.
[59]Stock G,Greis N P,Kasarda J D.Logistics,strategy and structure:A conceptual framework[J].International Journal of Operations & Production Management,1998,18(1):37-52.
[60]Pathasarthy R,Seethi S P.The impact of flexible automation on business strategy and organization structure[J].Academy Of Management Review,1992,17(1):86-111.
[61]张涛,孙林岩.供应链不确定性管理:技术与策略[M].清华大学出版 社,2005.
[62]Jeremy Shapiro.供应链建模(英文版)[M].中信出版社,2002.
[63]Min H,Zhou G.Supply chain modeling:Past,present and future[J].Computers & Industrial Engineering,2002,(43):231-249.
[64]汪云峰,马士华.供应链上的不确定性因素与库存[J].工业工程与管理.1999,(5):37-40.
[65]梁浩,王渝,吴启迪.供应链建模、仿真与优化问题的研究[J].中国机械工程,2002,13(10):864-867.
[66]孙永军,王正肖,潘晓弘等.敏捷供应链集成化建模方法[J].中国机械工程,2002,13(19):1679-1683.
[67]David S.An evaluation of CIM modeling constructs evaluation report of constructs for views according to ENV 40003[J].Computers in Industry,1994,24(1):159-236.
[68]Arntzen BC,Brown GG,Harrison TP,et al.Global supply chain management at digital equipment corporation[J].Interfaces,1995,25(1):69-93.
[69]karmarkar U S,Kekre S.Multi-item lot-sizing and manufacturing leadtimes.Working Paper,University of Rochester,1983.
[70]Karmarkar U S.Lot size,leadtimes and in-process inventories[J].Management Science,1987,(33):409-498.
[71]Zipkin P H.Models for design and control of stochastic multi-item batch production systems[J].Operations Research,1986,34(1):91-104.
[72]Christy D P,Grout J R.Safeguarding supply chain in relationships[J].International Journal of Production Economics,1994,(36):233-242.
[73]Lee H L,Padmanaban V,Whang S.The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains[J].Sloan Management Review,1997,38:93-102.
[74]Chen F,Drezner Z,Ryuan J,et al.The Bullwhip Effect:Management Insights on the Impact of Forecasting and Information and Variability in a Supply Chains[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000,417-440.
[75]Chen F,Drezner Z,Ryuan J,et al.Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain:The Impact of Forecasting,Lead Times,and Information[J].Management Science.2000,46(3):P436-443.
[76]Towill D R,Del V A.The application of filter theory to the supply chain dynamic[J].Production Planning & Control,1994,5(1):82-86.
[77]Dejonckheere J,Disney S M,Lambrecht M R,et al.Measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect a control theoretic approach[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,147(3):567-590.
[78]Riddalls C E,Bennett S.The optimal control of batched production and its effect on demand amplification[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2001,72(2):159-168.
[79]马新安,张列平,田澎.长鞭效应的实质与弱化措施[J].中国管理科学,2000,(8):61-68.
[80]张涛,孙林岩,胡飞虎.信息技术在业务流程重组中的应用简介[J].工业工程管理,2002,7(1):53-57.
[81]Peter Senge著.郭进隆,杨硕英译.第五项修炼[M].上海三联书店,1994.
[82]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].清华大学出版社,1995.
[83]王其藩.系统动力学[M].清华大学出版社,1994.
[84]G(u|¨)nther O.Teaching system dynamics and systems thinking in Austria and Germany[C].System Dynamics 2000 Conference in Bergen,Norway,2000.
[85]Forrester J W.System dynamics and the lessons of 35 years[R].Sloan School of Management,MIT,1991:1-35.
[86]Wolstenholme E F.System enquiry-a system dynamics approach[M].John-Wiley & Sons,1990.
[87]Sterman J D.Business dynamics:systems thinking and modeling for a complex world[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,2000.
[88]Forrester J W,Senge P M.Tests for building confidence in System Dynamics[C].System Dynamics.New York:North Holland,1980,14:209-228.
[89]帅斌.物流经济[M].西南交通大学出版社,2005.
[90]陶在朴.系统动态学[M].中国税务出版社,2005.
[91]Forrester J W.Industrial dynamics:a breakthrough for decision makers[J].Harvard Business Review,July-August 1958,37-66.
[92]Sterman J D.Modeling managerial behaviour:Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment[J].Management Science,1989,35(3):321-339.
[93]Sterman J D.Teaching takes off,fight simulators for management education[J].OR/MS Today,1992,19(5):40-44.
[94]Sterman J D,J Heineke,L Meile,et al.Games and Exercises for Operations Management[C].Prentice Hall,Englewood Cliffs,NJ,1995.101-112.
[95]Houlihan J B.International supply chain management[J].International Journal of Physical Distribution and Materials Management,1987,17(2):51-66.
[96]Burbidge J L.Five golden rules to avoid bankruptcy[J],Production Engineer,1983,62(10):965-981.
[97]Burbidge J L.Automated Production Control with a Simulation Capability[M].IFIP Working Paper,WGS(7),Copenhagen,1984.
[98]李刚,汪寿阳,于刚,阎洪.供应链中牛鞭效应与信息共享的研究[M].湖南大学出版社,2006.
[99]Towill D.R.Forridge-Principles of good material flow[J].Production Planning and Control,1997,8(7):622-632.
[100]Wilding R.The supply chain complexity triangle:Uncertainty Generation in the supply chain[J].International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management,1998,28(8):599-616.
[101]Wilding R.Chaos theory:Implications for supply chain management[J].International Journal of Logistics Management,1998,19(1):43-56.
[102]Taylor D H.Demand amplification:Has it got us beat?[J],International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management,2000,30(6),515-533.
[103]Axsater S.Optimizing of order- up-to-S policies in two-echelon inventory systems with periodic review[J].Naval Res Logistics,1993,40:245-253.
[104]Nahmias S,Smith S A.Optimizing inventory levels in a two-echelon retailer system with partial lost sales[J].Management Science,1994,40:582-560.
[105]Graves S C.A multi-echelon inventory model with fixed replenishment intervals[J].Management Science,1996,42:1-18.
[106]Erkip N,Hausman V H,Nahmias S.Optimal centralized ordering polices in multi-echelon inventory systems with correlated demands[J].Management Science, 1992, 36: 381-392.
[107] Gullu R. A two-echelon allocation model and the value of information under correlated and demands[J] .European Journal of Operational Research, 1997,99:386-400.
[108] Chen F, Zheng Yusheng. One-warehouse multi- retailer systems with centralized stock information[J]. Operations Research, 1997, 45:275-287.
[109] Chen F. Echelon reorder points, installation reorder points, and the value of centralized demand information[J]. Management Science, 1998, 44:221-234.
[110] Axsater S, Zhang Wen-fa. A joint replenishment policy for mufti-echelon inventory control[J]. International Journal Production Economics, 1999,59: 243-250.
[111] Clark T, Hammond J. Reengineering channel reordering processes to improve total supply chain performance[J]. Production and Operation Management, 1997, (6): 248-265.
[112] Anupindi R. Supply Management Under Uncertainty[D]. Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University, 1993.
[113] Bassok Y, Bixby A, Srinivasan R, et al. Design of component-supply contract with commitment- revision flexibility[J]. IBMJ ResDevelop,1997,41:693-702.
[114] Eppen GD, Iyer A V. Backup agreements in fashion buying- the value of upstream flexibility[J] .Management Science, 1997, 43: 1469-1484.
[115] Tsay A A, Lovejoy W S. Quantity flexibility contracts and supply chain performance[J] .Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 1999,(1): 89-111.
[116] Steckel J H, Gupta S, Banerji A. Supply chain decision making: Will shorter cycle times and shared point-of-sale information necessarily help?[J]. Management Science, APR 2004, 50(4): 458-464.
[117] Disney S. M., Towill D. R. The effect of VMI on the bullwhip Effect[C].International Conference on Production Research, Prague, Czech Republic, July 30-August 2. 2001.
[118]Disney S M,Towill D R.Vendor-managed inventory and bullwhip reduction in a two-level supply chain[J].International Journal of Operations & Production Management,2003,23(5-6):625-651.
[119]Disney S M,Towill D R.The effect of vendor managed inventory(VMI)dynamics on the Bullwhip Effect in supply chains[J].International Journal of Production Economics,AUG 11 2003,85(2):199-215.
[120]Zhang XL.The impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect[J].International Journal of Production Economics,MAR 8 2004,88(1):15-27.
[121]张钦,达庆利,沈厚才.在ARIIVIA(0,1,1)需求下的牛鞭效应与信息共享的评价[J].中国管理科学,2006,9(6):2-6.
[122]刘红,王平.基于不同预测技术的供应链牛鞭效应分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,7(7):26-33.
[123]Baganha M P,Cohen M A.The Stabilizing Effect of Inventory in Supply Chains[J].Operations Research,1998,44(3):572-83.
[124]黄小原,王静.供应链中的牛鞭效应问题研究进展:存在、量化与控制[J].信息与控制,2004,33(5):579-582.
[125]黄小原,卢震,吴红招.电子商务系统牛鞭效应的H_∞控制应用分析[J].控制工程,2002,9(5):11-14.
[126]黄小原,卢震.分销中心供应链模型及其牛鞭效应的H_∞控制[J].中国管理科学,2003,11(1):42-47.
[127]李晔,尚晓玲,陈燕.需求预测方法抑制牛鞭效应问题的研究[J].计算机应用,2007,27(12):2099-3104.
[128]尤建新,隋明刚,霍佳震.闭环供应链牛鞭效应分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,12:111-116.
[129]黄丽珍.供应链建模及其动力学机制研究[D].同济大学博士论文,2006.2.
[130]傅烨,郑绍镰.供应链中的“牛鞭效应”--成因及对策分析[J].管理工程学报,2002,16(1):82-83.
[131]李刚,汪寿阳等.牛鞭效应与生产平滑模型有效性问题[J].管理科学学报,2004,7(1):1-18.
[132]舒良友,晏启鹏.需求信息的不同共享对牛鞭效应的抑制[J].河南理工大学学报.2005,24(5):405-409
[133]Cachon G P,Marshall Fisher.Supply Chain Inventory Management and the Value of Shared Information.Working Paper,Fuqua School of Business,Duke University,1998
[134]Makridakis S,Wheelwright S C,McGee V E.Forecasting:Methods and Applications[M].John Wiley & Sons,1978.
[135]王之泰.现代物流管理[M].中国工人出版社,2001.
[136]上海现代物流教材编写委员会.现代物流[M].上海三联书店,2003.
[137]刘丽文.生产与运作管理[M].清华大学出版社,1998.
[138]钱颂迪.运筹学[M].清华大学出版社,1990.
[139]翟志刚.供货商管理库存的法宝--VMI[J].信息与计算机,1997,5.
[140]李勖,孙林岩等.动态联盟的合作动力研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001.2:91-93.
[141]高霞.用VMI提升供应链的库存管理水平[J].物流配送,2002,5.
[142]项明,严广乐.基于VMI的库存控制策略模型的研究[J].现代管理科学,2003,3.
[143]夏绪辉.逆向供应链的体系结构及其物流关键技术研究[D].重庆大学博士论文,2003.10.
[144]王能民,孙林岩,汪应洛.绿色供应链管理[M].清华大学出版社,2005.
[145]但斌.绿色供应链及其体系结构研究[J].中国机械工程,2000:123-134.
[146]汪应洛,王能民,孙林岩.绿色供应链管理的基本原理[J].中国工程科学,2003,5(11):82-87.
[147]Andrew J,Berger,et al.Supply chain cybermastery:Building high performance supply chains of the future.Gower Publishing Limited,2001:26-28.
[148]赵丽娟.绿色供应链管理的战略决策模型[D].重庆大学硕士论文,2003.10.
[149]YU Yang,DU Wen.Green Supply Chain Management of Manufacturing Based on System Dynamics[C].International Conference of Transportation Engineering.2007,(3):2500-2505.
[2]白世贞,王文利.供应链复杂系统资源流建模与仿真[M].科学出版社,2008.
[3]Chopra S,Meindl P.Supply chain management:strategy,planning,and operation[M].Prentice Hall,2001.
[4]Shapiro J.Modeling the Supply Chain[M].Thomson Learning Inc.,2002.
[5]赵林度.供应链与物流管理:理论与实务[M].机械工业出版社,2003.
[6]马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理[M].机械工业出版社,2000.
[7]唐纳德·J·鲍尔索克斯,戴维·J·克劳斯著.林国龙,宋柏,沙梅译.物流管理--供应链过程的一体化[M].机械工业出版社,1999.
[8]大卫·辛奇·利维,菲利普.凯明斯基等著.季建华等译.供应链设计与管理:概念、战略与案例研究[M].上海远东出版社,2000.
[9]宋华,胡左浩.现代物流与供应链管理[M].经济管理出版社,2000.
[10]朱道立,龚国华等.物流和供应链管理[M].复旦大学出版社,2001.
[11]陈安,刘鲁.供应链管理问题的研究现状及挑战[J].系统工程学报.2000,15(2):179-186.
[12]陈志祥,马士华,陈荣秋.SCM建模理论与方法研究[J].管理科学学报.1999,2(1):67-71.
[13]柴跃廷,刘义.敏捷供需链管理[M].清华大学出版社.2001.
[14]Forrester.Industrial dynamics[M].US,Cambridge Mass:MIT Press,1961.
[15]彭扬,伍蓓著.物流系统优化与仿真[M].中国物资出版社.2007.167-169
[16]Forrester.World dynamics[M].US,Cambridge Mass:MIT Press,1971.
[17]Forrester著,胡汝鼎,杨通谊 译.工业动力学[M].科学出版社,1985.
[18]Douglas J Thomas,Paul M Griffin.Coordinated supply chain managemet [J].European Journal of Operational Research,1996,94:1-15.
[19]Bhatnagar R,Chandra P.Models for multi-plant coordination[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1993,67:141-160.
[20]Carter J R,Miller J G.The impact of alternative vendor/buyer communication structures on the quality of purchased material[J].Decision Science,1989,20:759-776.
[21]Dale B G,Lascalles D M,et al.Supply chain management and development[J].Managing Quality,1994,292-315.
[22]Seferlis Panos,Giannelos Nikolaos F.A two-layered optimization-based control strategy for multi-echelon supply chain networks[J].Computers and Chemical Engineering,2004,28(5):799-809.
[23]Ellinger Alexander E.Improving marketing/logistics cross-functional collaboration in the supply chain[J].Industrial Marketing Management,2000,29(1):85-96.
[24]Perea-López,Edgar,Ydstie,et al.A model predictive control strategy for supply chain optimization[J].Computers and Chemical Engineering,2003,27(8-9):1201-1218.
[25]杨晓春,于戈.面向虚拟企业信息集成的扩展联邦模式[J].计算机集成制造系统,2001,7(3):19-25.
[26]周伯生,樊东平.零时间:21世纪企业的概念构架[J].中国机械工程,2000,11(1):89-92.
[27]蒋新松.21世纪企业的主要模式--动态联盟[J].计算机集成制造系统,1996,2(4):3-8.
[28]高建民,林志航,马力.动态联盟与企业集团[J].第五届中国计算机集成制造系统(CIMS)学术会议论文集.1998,2-8:2-14.
[29]陈志祥.供应链管理[M].机械工业出版社,2001.
[30]徐晓飞,卤德臣.动态联盟企业组织方法体系[J].计算机集成制造系统,1999,5(1):7-12.
[31]陈良华,李文.供应链管理的演进[J].台北大学学报,2004,(4):102-113.
[32]L J Chen,A Paulraj.Understanding supply chain management:Critical research and a theoretical framework[J].International Journal of Production Research,2004,42(1):131-163.
[33]森尼尔.乔普瑞,彼得·梅因德尔.供应链管理:战略、规划与运营(美) [M].北京社会科学文献出版社,2003.
[34]Morash E A,S R Clinton.Supply chain integration:Customer value through collaborative closeness versus operational excellence[J].Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice,1998,6(4):104-120.
[35]Wikner J,Towill D R,Naim M.Smoothing supply chain dynamics[J].International Journal of Production Economy,1991,22(3):231-248.
[36]Giannoccaro I,Pontrandolfo P,Supply chain coordination by revenue sharing contracts[J].International Journal of Production Economy,2004,89(2):131-139.
[37]A Gunasekaran,E Ngai.Information systems in supply chain integration and management[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,159:269-279.
[38]Terry Anthony Byrd,Nancy W Davidson.Examining possible antecedents of IT impact on the supply chain and its effect on firm performance[J].Information and Management,2003,41:243-253.
[39]Iyer A V,Bergen M E.Quick response in manufacturer-retailer channels[J].Management Science,1997,42:559-570.
[40]Buzzell et al.Channel streamline distribution[J].Sloan Management Review,1995,85-96.
[41]Kaipia R,Holmstrom J,Tanskanen K.VMI:What are you losing if you let your customer place orders[J],Production Planning & Control,2002,13(1):17-25.
[42]张力菠.供应链环境下库存控制的系统动力学仿真研究[D].南京理工大学博士论文,2006.3.
[43]但斌,张旭梅等.基于CPFR的供应链体系结构和运作研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2000,16(4):41-44.
[44]Lee H L,Padmanabhan V,Whang S.Information distortion in a supply chain:the bullwhip effect[J].Management science,1997,43(4):546-558.
[45]McCullen P,Towill D R.Diagnosis and reduction of bullwhip in supply chains[J].Supply Chain Management:An International Journal,2002,7(3):164-179.
[46]刘红.供应链牛鞭效应研究[D].上海海事大学博士论文,2006.10.
[47]蒋洪伟,韩文秀.绿色供应链管理:企业经营管理的趋势[J].中国人 口·资源与环境.2000,10(4):90-92.
[48]Joseph Sarkis.Theory and Methodology:Evaluating environmentally Conscious business practices[J].European Journal of Operational Research.1998,107:159-174.
[49]Beaman B M.Designing the green supply chain[J].Logistics Information Management.1999,12(4):332-342.
[50]陈果.惠普和戴尔的成功案例:CPC让企业如虎添翼.计算机世界网,http://www.ccw.com.cn.
[51]陈伟军,张红,徐学军.IBM公司跨国供应链管理.工业工程与管理,2002.3:67-70.
[52]海尔集团.以“市场链”为纽带的业务流程再造[J].企业管理,2001,1:23-28.
[53]张岩.以供应链优势打造新联想核心竞争力-访联想集团COO刘军[J].微机与应用,2006,7:56-59.
[54]Yahya S,Kingsman B.Vender rating for an entrepreneur development program:A study using the analytic hierarchy process method[J].Journal of Operational Research Society,1999,(50):916-930.
[55]Ricardo Ernst,Bardia Kamrad.Evaluation of supply chain structures through modularization and postponement[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2000,(124):495-510.
[56]万杰,王楠.供应链结构对牛鞭效应的影响研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2001,(5).
[57]Sunil Chopra,Peter Meindl.Supply chain management:Strategy,planning,and operation[M],清华大学出版社,Prentice Hall,2001.
[58]Bowersox D J,Morash E A.The Integration of marketing flows in channels of distribution[J].European Journal Of Marketing,1989,23(2):58-67.
[59]Stock G,Greis N P,Kasarda J D.Logistics,strategy and structure:A conceptual framework[J].International Journal of Operations & Production Management,1998,18(1):37-52.
[60]Pathasarthy R,Seethi S P.The impact of flexible automation on business strategy and organization structure[J].Academy Of Management Review,1992,17(1):86-111.
[61]张涛,孙林岩.供应链不确定性管理:技术与策略[M].清华大学出版 社,2005.
[62]Jeremy Shapiro.供应链建模(英文版)[M].中信出版社,2002.
[63]Min H,Zhou G.Supply chain modeling:Past,present and future[J].Computers & Industrial Engineering,2002,(43):231-249.
[64]汪云峰,马士华.供应链上的不确定性因素与库存[J].工业工程与管理.1999,(5):37-40.
[65]梁浩,王渝,吴启迪.供应链建模、仿真与优化问题的研究[J].中国机械工程,2002,13(10):864-867.
[66]孙永军,王正肖,潘晓弘等.敏捷供应链集成化建模方法[J].中国机械工程,2002,13(19):1679-1683.
[67]David S.An evaluation of CIM modeling constructs evaluation report of constructs for views according to ENV 40003[J].Computers in Industry,1994,24(1):159-236.
[68]Arntzen BC,Brown GG,Harrison TP,et al.Global supply chain management at digital equipment corporation[J].Interfaces,1995,25(1):69-93.
[69]karmarkar U S,Kekre S.Multi-item lot-sizing and manufacturing leadtimes.Working Paper,University of Rochester,1983.
[70]Karmarkar U S.Lot size,leadtimes and in-process inventories[J].Management Science,1987,(33):409-498.
[71]Zipkin P H.Models for design and control of stochastic multi-item batch production systems[J].Operations Research,1986,34(1):91-104.
[72]Christy D P,Grout J R.Safeguarding supply chain in relationships[J].International Journal of Production Economics,1994,(36):233-242.
[73]Lee H L,Padmanaban V,Whang S.The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains[J].Sloan Management Review,1997,38:93-102.
[74]Chen F,Drezner Z,Ryuan J,et al.The Bullwhip Effect:Management Insights on the Impact of Forecasting and Information and Variability in a Supply Chains[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000,417-440.
[75]Chen F,Drezner Z,Ryuan J,et al.Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain:The Impact of Forecasting,Lead Times,and Information[J].Management Science.2000,46(3):P436-443.
[76]Towill D R,Del V A.The application of filter theory to the supply chain dynamic[J].Production Planning & Control,1994,5(1):82-86.
[77]Dejonckheere J,Disney S M,Lambrecht M R,et al.Measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect a control theoretic approach[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,147(3):567-590.
[78]Riddalls C E,Bennett S.The optimal control of batched production and its effect on demand amplification[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2001,72(2):159-168.
[79]马新安,张列平,田澎.长鞭效应的实质与弱化措施[J].中国管理科学,2000,(8):61-68.
[80]张涛,孙林岩,胡飞虎.信息技术在业务流程重组中的应用简介[J].工业工程管理,2002,7(1):53-57.
[81]Peter Senge著.郭进隆,杨硕英译.第五项修炼[M].上海三联书店,1994.
[82]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].清华大学出版社,1995.
[83]王其藩.系统动力学[M].清华大学出版社,1994.
[84]G(u|¨)nther O.Teaching system dynamics and systems thinking in Austria and Germany[C].System Dynamics 2000 Conference in Bergen,Norway,2000.
[85]Forrester J W.System dynamics and the lessons of 35 years[R].Sloan School of Management,MIT,1991:1-35.
[86]Wolstenholme E F.System enquiry-a system dynamics approach[M].John-Wiley & Sons,1990.
[87]Sterman J D.Business dynamics:systems thinking and modeling for a complex world[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,2000.
[88]Forrester J W,Senge P M.Tests for building confidence in System Dynamics[C].System Dynamics.New York:North Holland,1980,14:209-228.
[89]帅斌.物流经济[M].西南交通大学出版社,2005.
[90]陶在朴.系统动态学[M].中国税务出版社,2005.
[91]Forrester J W.Industrial dynamics:a breakthrough for decision makers[J].Harvard Business Review,July-August 1958,37-66.
[92]Sterman J D.Modeling managerial behaviour:Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment[J].Management Science,1989,35(3):321-339.
[93]Sterman J D.Teaching takes off,fight simulators for management education[J].OR/MS Today,1992,19(5):40-44.
[94]Sterman J D,J Heineke,L Meile,et al.Games and Exercises for Operations Management[C].Prentice Hall,Englewood Cliffs,NJ,1995.101-112.
[95]Houlihan J B.International supply chain management[J].International Journal of Physical Distribution and Materials Management,1987,17(2):51-66.
[96]Burbidge J L.Five golden rules to avoid bankruptcy[J],Production Engineer,1983,62(10):965-981.
[97]Burbidge J L.Automated Production Control with a Simulation Capability[M].IFIP Working Paper,WGS(7),Copenhagen,1984.
[98]李刚,汪寿阳,于刚,阎洪.供应链中牛鞭效应与信息共享的研究[M].湖南大学出版社,2006.
[99]Towill D.R.Forridge-Principles of good material flow[J].Production Planning and Control,1997,8(7):622-632.
[100]Wilding R.The supply chain complexity triangle:Uncertainty Generation in the supply chain[J].International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management,1998,28(8):599-616.
[101]Wilding R.Chaos theory:Implications for supply chain management[J].International Journal of Logistics Management,1998,19(1):43-56.
[102]Taylor D H.Demand amplification:Has it got us beat?[J],International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management,2000,30(6),515-533.
[103]Axsater S.Optimizing of order- up-to-S policies in two-echelon inventory systems with periodic review[J].Naval Res Logistics,1993,40:245-253.
[104]Nahmias S,Smith S A.Optimizing inventory levels in a two-echelon retailer system with partial lost sales[J].Management Science,1994,40:582-560.
[105]Graves S C.A multi-echelon inventory model with fixed replenishment intervals[J].Management Science,1996,42:1-18.
[106]Erkip N,Hausman V H,Nahmias S.Optimal centralized ordering polices in multi-echelon inventory systems with correlated demands[J].Management Science, 1992, 36: 381-392.
[107] Gullu R. A two-echelon allocation model and the value of information under correlated and demands[J] .European Journal of Operational Research, 1997,99:386-400.
[108] Chen F, Zheng Yusheng. One-warehouse multi- retailer systems with centralized stock information[J]. Operations Research, 1997, 45:275-287.
[109] Chen F. Echelon reorder points, installation reorder points, and the value of centralized demand information[J]. Management Science, 1998, 44:221-234.
[110] Axsater S, Zhang Wen-fa. A joint replenishment policy for mufti-echelon inventory control[J]. International Journal Production Economics, 1999,59: 243-250.
[111] Clark T, Hammond J. Reengineering channel reordering processes to improve total supply chain performance[J]. Production and Operation Management, 1997, (6): 248-265.
[112] Anupindi R. Supply Management Under Uncertainty[D]. Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University, 1993.
[113] Bassok Y, Bixby A, Srinivasan R, et al. Design of component-supply contract with commitment- revision flexibility[J]. IBMJ ResDevelop,1997,41:693-702.
[114] Eppen GD, Iyer A V. Backup agreements in fashion buying- the value of upstream flexibility[J] .Management Science, 1997, 43: 1469-1484.
[115] Tsay A A, Lovejoy W S. Quantity flexibility contracts and supply chain performance[J] .Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 1999,(1): 89-111.
[116] Steckel J H, Gupta S, Banerji A. Supply chain decision making: Will shorter cycle times and shared point-of-sale information necessarily help?[J]. Management Science, APR 2004, 50(4): 458-464.
[117] Disney S. M., Towill D. R. The effect of VMI on the bullwhip Effect[C].International Conference on Production Research, Prague, Czech Republic, July 30-August 2. 2001.
[118]Disney S M,Towill D R.Vendor-managed inventory and bullwhip reduction in a two-level supply chain[J].International Journal of Operations & Production Management,2003,23(5-6):625-651.
[119]Disney S M,Towill D R.The effect of vendor managed inventory(VMI)dynamics on the Bullwhip Effect in supply chains[J].International Journal of Production Economics,AUG 11 2003,85(2):199-215.
[120]Zhang XL.The impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect[J].International Journal of Production Economics,MAR 8 2004,88(1):15-27.
[121]张钦,达庆利,沈厚才.在ARIIVIA(0,1,1)需求下的牛鞭效应与信息共享的评价[J].中国管理科学,2006,9(6):2-6.
[122]刘红,王平.基于不同预测技术的供应链牛鞭效应分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,7(7):26-33.
[123]Baganha M P,Cohen M A.The Stabilizing Effect of Inventory in Supply Chains[J].Operations Research,1998,44(3):572-83.
[124]黄小原,王静.供应链中的牛鞭效应问题研究进展:存在、量化与控制[J].信息与控制,2004,33(5):579-582.
[125]黄小原,卢震,吴红招.电子商务系统牛鞭效应的H_∞控制应用分析[J].控制工程,2002,9(5):11-14.
[126]黄小原,卢震.分销中心供应链模型及其牛鞭效应的H_∞控制[J].中国管理科学,2003,11(1):42-47.
[127]李晔,尚晓玲,陈燕.需求预测方法抑制牛鞭效应问题的研究[J].计算机应用,2007,27(12):2099-3104.
[128]尤建新,隋明刚,霍佳震.闭环供应链牛鞭效应分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,12:111-116.
[129]黄丽珍.供应链建模及其动力学机制研究[D].同济大学博士论文,2006.2.
[130]傅烨,郑绍镰.供应链中的“牛鞭效应”--成因及对策分析[J].管理工程学报,2002,16(1):82-83.
[131]李刚,汪寿阳等.牛鞭效应与生产平滑模型有效性问题[J].管理科学学报,2004,7(1):1-18.
[132]舒良友,晏启鹏.需求信息的不同共享对牛鞭效应的抑制[J].河南理工大学学报.2005,24(5):405-409
[133]Cachon G P,Marshall Fisher.Supply Chain Inventory Management and the Value of Shared Information.Working Paper,Fuqua School of Business,Duke University,1998
[134]Makridakis S,Wheelwright S C,McGee V E.Forecasting:Methods and Applications[M].John Wiley & Sons,1978.
[135]王之泰.现代物流管理[M].中国工人出版社,2001.
[136]上海现代物流教材编写委员会.现代物流[M].上海三联书店,2003.
[137]刘丽文.生产与运作管理[M].清华大学出版社,1998.
[138]钱颂迪.运筹学[M].清华大学出版社,1990.
[139]翟志刚.供货商管理库存的法宝--VMI[J].信息与计算机,1997,5.
[140]李勖,孙林岩等.动态联盟的合作动力研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001.2:91-93.
[141]高霞.用VMI提升供应链的库存管理水平[J].物流配送,2002,5.
[142]项明,严广乐.基于VMI的库存控制策略模型的研究[J].现代管理科学,2003,3.
[143]夏绪辉.逆向供应链的体系结构及其物流关键技术研究[D].重庆大学博士论文,2003.10.
[144]王能民,孙林岩,汪应洛.绿色供应链管理[M].清华大学出版社,2005.
[145]但斌.绿色供应链及其体系结构研究[J].中国机械工程,2000:123-134.
[146]汪应洛,王能民,孙林岩.绿色供应链管理的基本原理[J].中国工程科学,2003,5(11):82-87.
[147]Andrew J,Berger,et al.Supply chain cybermastery:Building high performance supply chains of the future.Gower Publishing Limited,2001:26-28.
[148]赵丽娟.绿色供应链管理的战略决策模型[D].重庆大学硕士论文,2003.10.
[149]YU Yang,DU Wen.Green Supply Chain Management of Manufacturing Based on System Dynamics[C].International Conference of Transportation Engineering.2007,(3):2500-2505.