不确定性条件下的能源系统优化模型研究
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摘要
能源是保证人类社会生存、发展乃至进步的重要基础,是关乎国家民生大计、经济命脉、国家安全的重要战略物资,为人类社会的进步提供了源源不断的动力并直接影响着一个国家现代化建设的进程。然而,近年来,随着社会经济的快速发展,能源消费量激增,能源供需矛盾逐渐显现。另外以煤、石油、天然气等为主的不可再生能源消费结构导致了生态环境的急剧恶化。因此,迫切需要对能源系统进行综合管理,以建设一个能源消耗低、环境污染少、经济效益高的资源节约型社会。本研究首先详细探讨了当前国际的能源供应与消费趋势及其与环境的相互作用,以及目前用于进行能源系统规划的能源系统模型及能源优化模型。在此基础上提出区间随机半无限规划方法,,并应用于能源-环境系统优化模型。通过对模型求解,对比分析了在没看环境约束和增加环境约束后的电力供应结构变化,提出了在保障环境质量的前提下,维持能源-环境系统成本最小化的电力供应方案,为不确定条件下的区域能源-环境系统综合管理提供技术支撑和决策依据。随后又将模糊规划方法纳入区间随机半无限规划中,使之能够处理模型中以模糊集表现的不确定性,并应用于已构建的能源-环境系统模型。通过对模型的求解,得到了满足多约束条件时的能源-环境系统优化方案。最后,通过对两类模型的对比分析,发现模糊规划可以使模型的决策结果更加精确,使决策者制定决策的准确性大大提高。
Energy is of importance to thedevelopment of human society; is the strategic material related to national livelihood of people, the national economic lifeline and national security; and provides a steady source for the progress of human society and is a direct impact on the country's modernization. However, in recent years, with the rapid social and economic development, energy consumption has been rising increasingly, leading to a serious contradiction between energy supply and energy demand. In addition, the energy structure based on coal, oil and natural gas has led to deterioration of the ecological environment. Therefor, integrated management for energy system has become an urgent issue for building a resources-saving society with low energy consumption, little environmental pollution, and high economic benifit. To begin, this research investigates the international issues regarding energy supplies and consumptions, as well as their the relationships with the environment; then narrates review of energy model and energy optimal techniques. Subsequently, an interval chance-constrained semi-infinite programming (ICCSILP) model is developed to support integrated enengy environmental systems planning under parameter uncertainty. Two scenarios are used to compare the optimized eletricity supply strategeis:one scenario assumes the environmental constriants can be neglected, and the other one stressed the necessity of the environmental constraints. Results obtained through solving the model under the two scenarios provide decision support for energy allocation and environmental control. Furthermore, an interval fuzzy chance-constrained semi-infinite programming (IFCCSILP) model is developed to simultaneously deal with fuzzy and interval parameters in an integrated enengy and environmental system. By solving the model, not only decisionmaking strategis can be obtained, but the satisfactory level of the each strategy can be known. Thus, IFCCSILP provides a more flexible decision-making tool compared to than ICCSILP. Finally, the limitations of the two models and future studies to overcome such limitations are dicussed.
Energy is of importance to thedevelopment of human society; is the strategic material related to national livelihood of people, the national economic lifeline and national security; and provides a steady source for the progress of human society and is a direct impact on the country's modernization. However, in recent years, with the rapid social and economic development, energy consumption has been rising increasingly, leading to a serious contradiction between energy supply and energy demand. In addition, the energy structure based on coal, oil and natural gas has led to deterioration of the ecological environment. Therefor, integrated management for energy system has become an urgent issue for building a resources-saving society with low energy consumption, little environmental pollution, and high economic benifit. To begin, this research investigates the international issues regarding energy supplies and consumptions, as well as their the relationships with the environment; then narrates review of energy model and energy optimal techniques. Subsequently, an interval chance-constrained semi-infinite programming (ICCSILP) model is developed to support integrated enengy environmental systems planning under parameter uncertainty. Two scenarios are used to compare the optimized eletricity supply strategeis:one scenario assumes the environmental constriants can be neglected, and the other one stressed the necessity of the environmental constraints. Results obtained through solving the model under the two scenarios provide decision support for energy allocation and environmental control. Furthermore, an interval fuzzy chance-constrained semi-infinite programming (IFCCSILP) model is developed to simultaneously deal with fuzzy and interval parameters in an integrated enengy and environmental system. By solving the model, not only decisionmaking strategis can be obtained, but the satisfactory level of the each strategy can be known. Thus, IFCCSILP provides a more flexible decision-making tool compared to than ICCSILP. Finally, the limitations of the two models and future studies to overcome such limitations are dicussed.
引文
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