电连接器步进应力加速退化试验技术的研究
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摘要
电连接器作为一种基础元件,在型号系统中应用广泛、数量可观、地位重要。为满足型号系统日益提高的战备性能要求,系统对电连接器提出了32年的贮存期要求。对于这类长寿命电连接器,目前尚缺乏相应的可靠性评估理论和方法,难以在工程允许的时间内对其能否满足系统提出的可靠性要求作出判断,因此,如何评估长寿命电连接器的贮存可靠性成为亟待解决的问题。本文以“长期贮存、一次使用”的型号系统为应用背景,以型号上广泛使用且具有代表性的Y11X-1419型电连接器为研究对象,研究电连接器在贮存环境下的性能变化规律,电连接器的加速退化试验技术以及基于加速退化试验数据的可靠性评估方法,为快速评估电连接器的贮存可靠性提供理论依据,为型号系统的贮存寿命设计与评估提供科学有效的支撑。
本文共分为8章,各章的主要工作如下：
第1章,阐述了论文的研究背景、目的和意义,从可靠性试验技术、加速退化试验技术以及电连接器可靠性三个方面分析了相关领域的国内外研究现状及存在的问题,总结了长寿命电连接器的贮存可靠性评估主要面临的问题,提出了论文的研究思路和主要研究内容。
第2章,从电连接器的结构、功能以及贮存环境应力出发,研究了电连接器在贮存环境下的失效机理；根据氧化物膜层的增长规律,建立了电连接器的加速退化模型；根据电连接器的电气结构特征,建立了电连接器的寿命分布模型。
第3章,建立了电连接器步进应力加速退化试验方案优化设计方法,给出了传统步进应力加速退化试验优化方案、两应力水平最优步进应力加速退化试验方案以及综合考虑试验方案稳健性及估计精度的步进应力加速退化折中试验方案,并对加速退化折中试验方案对参数偏差的稳健性进行分析。
第4章,基于蒙特卡洛模拟,建立了电连接器步进应力加速退化试验方案的模拟评价方法。从可靠性特征值的估计精度和稳健性两方面,对步进应力加速退化试验优化方案进行评价,验证了加速退化试验方案优化设计理论的正确性以及最终试验方案的合理性。
第5章,基于极大似然估计理论,利用步进应力加速退化试验数据,对电连接器的加速退化模型参数进行估计,评估了电连接器正常应力水平下的贮存可靠性水平。
第6章,建立了基于加速退化试验数据的电连接器可靠度置信区间估计方法。利用两步纠偏方法,在对退化模型参数估计值进行Bootstrap纠偏处理的基础上,对电连接器可靠度的置信区间进行二次纠偏,给出了正常应力水平下电连接器可靠度的逐点近似Bootstrap置信区间估计。
第7章,基于电连接器的步进应力加速退化试验数据,建立了电连接器加速退化模型的验证方法,分别对退化轨迹模型、退化率分布假设、常数项假设以及加速退化方程进行检验,验证了从失效机理层面推导的加速退化模型的准确性。
第8章,总结了全文的研究工作,对进一步的研究工作提出了建议。
As a basic component, electrical connector is widely used in model system with large amounts and plays an important role. To satisfy the increasingly high requirements for war-readiness performances, the model system calls for32-year storage life of electric connector. As no relevant theory and method is available now to evaluate the reliability of this kind of long-life electrical connector, it is difficult to judge whether it is reliable enough to meet the requirements of the system within the given time limit for project. Therefore, it is quite necessary and significant to study how to evaluate the storage reliability of long-life electrical connector. In the background of the model system featuring long-term storage and one-shot application, the dissertation takes typical and widely used Y11X-1419electrical connector as the object, and focuses on the study on its performance change law in the storage environment, the accelerated degradation test technique for it and the reliability evaluation method based on accelerated degradation test data, thus providing a theoretical basis for the rapid evaluation on the storage reliability of electrical connector, and an effective support for the design and evaluation of the storage life of the model system.
This dissertation is composed of eight chapters, and the main work of each chapter is specified as follows.
Chapter one gives an introduction to the research background, the purpose and the significance of the dissertation. In this chapter, the domestic and foreign research status and the problems in relevant fields are analyzed in terms of reliability test technique, accelerated degradation test technique and the reliability research of electrical connectors. Besides, the problems in the evaluation on the storage reliability of long-life electrical connector are summarized, and the research approach and the main research content are proposed.
In chapter two, the failure mechanism of electrical connector in the storage environment is studied based on their structure, functions and storage environment stresses. Besides, the accelerated degradation model is built according to the growth law of oxide film, and the life distribution model is built for electrical connector according to the electrical structural properties.
In chapter three, an optimized design method is put forward for the step-stress accelerated degradation test plan for electrical connector. The traditional step-stress accelerated degradation test optimized plan, the optimal step-stress accelerated degradation test plan with two stress levels and the step-stress accelerated degradation compromise test plan for overall consideration of robustness and estimated accuracy of the test plan are presented. Meanwhile, the sensitivity to parameter misspecification is analyzed for the optimized compromise test plan.
In chapter four, based on the Monte Carlo simulation, a simulated evaluation method is set up for the step-stress accelerated degradation test plan for electrical connector. From the perspectives of robustness and estimated accuracy of the reliability property value, the optimized plans for the step stress accelerated degradation test are evaluated, thus verifying the correctness of the optimized design theory for accelerated degradation test and the rationality of the final test plan.
In chapter five, on the basis of the maximum likelihood estimation theory, the accelerated degradation model parameters of electrical connector are estimated with the step-stress accelerated degradation test data, and the storage reliability of electrical connector under normal stress level is evaluated.
In chapter six, based on the accelerated degradation test data, the confidence interval estimation method is established for electrical connector. Using the two-step bias-correction method, on the basis of the Bootstrap bias-correction of the degradation model parameter estimation value, the confidence interval to the reliability of electrical connector is re-corrected, thus, the pointwise approximate Bootstrap confidence interval estimation to the reliability of electrical connector under normal stress is presented.
In chapter seven, based on the step-stress accelerated degradation test data of electrical connector, a verification method is set up for the accelerated degradation model. The degradation path model, the degradation rate distribution hypothesis, the constant term hypothesis and the accelerated degradation equation are examined, thus verifying the accuracy of the accelerated degradation model deduced from the failure mechanism.
Chapter eight gives a summary of the dissertation and some suggestions for further research work.
本文共分为8章,各章的主要工作如下：
第1章,阐述了论文的研究背景、目的和意义,从可靠性试验技术、加速退化试验技术以及电连接器可靠性三个方面分析了相关领域的国内外研究现状及存在的问题,总结了长寿命电连接器的贮存可靠性评估主要面临的问题,提出了论文的研究思路和主要研究内容。
第2章,从电连接器的结构、功能以及贮存环境应力出发,研究了电连接器在贮存环境下的失效机理；根据氧化物膜层的增长规律,建立了电连接器的加速退化模型；根据电连接器的电气结构特征,建立了电连接器的寿命分布模型。
第3章,建立了电连接器步进应力加速退化试验方案优化设计方法,给出了传统步进应力加速退化试验优化方案、两应力水平最优步进应力加速退化试验方案以及综合考虑试验方案稳健性及估计精度的步进应力加速退化折中试验方案,并对加速退化折中试验方案对参数偏差的稳健性进行分析。
第4章,基于蒙特卡洛模拟,建立了电连接器步进应力加速退化试验方案的模拟评价方法。从可靠性特征值的估计精度和稳健性两方面,对步进应力加速退化试验优化方案进行评价,验证了加速退化试验方案优化设计理论的正确性以及最终试验方案的合理性。
第5章,基于极大似然估计理论,利用步进应力加速退化试验数据,对电连接器的加速退化模型参数进行估计,评估了电连接器正常应力水平下的贮存可靠性水平。
第6章,建立了基于加速退化试验数据的电连接器可靠度置信区间估计方法。利用两步纠偏方法,在对退化模型参数估计值进行Bootstrap纠偏处理的基础上,对电连接器可靠度的置信区间进行二次纠偏,给出了正常应力水平下电连接器可靠度的逐点近似Bootstrap置信区间估计。
第7章,基于电连接器的步进应力加速退化试验数据,建立了电连接器加速退化模型的验证方法,分别对退化轨迹模型、退化率分布假设、常数项假设以及加速退化方程进行检验,验证了从失效机理层面推导的加速退化模型的准确性。
第8章,总结了全文的研究工作,对进一步的研究工作提出了建议。
As a basic component, electrical connector is widely used in model system with large amounts and plays an important role. To satisfy the increasingly high requirements for war-readiness performances, the model system calls for32-year storage life of electric connector. As no relevant theory and method is available now to evaluate the reliability of this kind of long-life electrical connector, it is difficult to judge whether it is reliable enough to meet the requirements of the system within the given time limit for project. Therefore, it is quite necessary and significant to study how to evaluate the storage reliability of long-life electrical connector. In the background of the model system featuring long-term storage and one-shot application, the dissertation takes typical and widely used Y11X-1419electrical connector as the object, and focuses on the study on its performance change law in the storage environment, the accelerated degradation test technique for it and the reliability evaluation method based on accelerated degradation test data, thus providing a theoretical basis for the rapid evaluation on the storage reliability of electrical connector, and an effective support for the design and evaluation of the storage life of the model system.
This dissertation is composed of eight chapters, and the main work of each chapter is specified as follows.
Chapter one gives an introduction to the research background, the purpose and the significance of the dissertation. In this chapter, the domestic and foreign research status and the problems in relevant fields are analyzed in terms of reliability test technique, accelerated degradation test technique and the reliability research of electrical connectors. Besides, the problems in the evaluation on the storage reliability of long-life electrical connector are summarized, and the research approach and the main research content are proposed.
In chapter two, the failure mechanism of electrical connector in the storage environment is studied based on their structure, functions and storage environment stresses. Besides, the accelerated degradation model is built according to the growth law of oxide film, and the life distribution model is built for electrical connector according to the electrical structural properties.
In chapter three, an optimized design method is put forward for the step-stress accelerated degradation test plan for electrical connector. The traditional step-stress accelerated degradation test optimized plan, the optimal step-stress accelerated degradation test plan with two stress levels and the step-stress accelerated degradation compromise test plan for overall consideration of robustness and estimated accuracy of the test plan are presented. Meanwhile, the sensitivity to parameter misspecification is analyzed for the optimized compromise test plan.
In chapter four, based on the Monte Carlo simulation, a simulated evaluation method is set up for the step-stress accelerated degradation test plan for electrical connector. From the perspectives of robustness and estimated accuracy of the reliability property value, the optimized plans for the step stress accelerated degradation test are evaluated, thus verifying the correctness of the optimized design theory for accelerated degradation test and the rationality of the final test plan.
In chapter five, on the basis of the maximum likelihood estimation theory, the accelerated degradation model parameters of electrical connector are estimated with the step-stress accelerated degradation test data, and the storage reliability of electrical connector under normal stress level is evaluated.
In chapter six, based on the accelerated degradation test data, the confidence interval estimation method is established for electrical connector. Using the two-step bias-correction method, on the basis of the Bootstrap bias-correction of the degradation model parameter estimation value, the confidence interval to the reliability of electrical connector is re-corrected, thus, the pointwise approximate Bootstrap confidence interval estimation to the reliability of electrical connector under normal stress is presented.
In chapter seven, based on the step-stress accelerated degradation test data of electrical connector, a verification method is set up for the accelerated degradation model. The degradation path model, the degradation rate distribution hypothesis, the constant term hypothesis and the accelerated degradation equation are examined, thus verifying the accuracy of the accelerated degradation model deduced from the failure mechanism.
Chapter eight gives a summary of the dissertation and some suggestions for further research work.
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