主要发达国家经济周期波动对我国FDI的影响
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摘要
经济周期一直是经济学研究的重要内容,伴随着经济全球化的发展,外商直接投资(FDI)与经济周期之间的关系也越来越受到重视。在全球一体化水平日益提高的今天,任何一国都难以游离于全球经济波动之外。而中国的经济建设更是取得了举世瞩目的成绩。
本文利用影响我国FDI的主要发达国家1985年至2007年的年度数据,使用线性回归和面板回归,用了两种方法——人均实际国内生产总值的标准差和回归残差,将这些国家的经济周期波动对我国FDI的影响做了一个简单的分析,并用豪斯曼检验得出随机效应模型在整个测量方法中具有优势。最后对整个经济周期波动进行了更进一步的研究,并加入中国的经济周期做了一个简单的分析。
结果表明,这些发达国家的经济周期波动与他们对我国的FDI有一个负相关的关系,这种负相关关系在经济衰退期尤为明显,而在经济繁荣期则没有显著变化。此外,中国自身的经济周期也对本国的FDI流入量产生影响。投资国和东道国的经济周期波动都对FDI产生影响,这为分析我国FDI提供了一个简单的参考。
With the development of economy, any country is hard separated from world economy. Economic cycle has been an important part of economics, and with economic globalization and development, foreign direct investment theory has become a more and more popular subject. In recent years, China's rapid economic development has attracted worldwide attention, there have been many studies on economic cycles and FDI in some literatures. This paper attempts a new perspective to study the relationship between the economic cycles and FDI. China as the host, starting from some of the largest developed countries which have the most impact in our country's FDI, analyzes these countries'economic cycle and try to find how these cycles change their investments in China, besides, we want to know what affect FDI. For the more comprehensive description of the economic cycle and the relationship between FDI in China, we finally joined our country's economic cycle, simple instructions are compared.
This paper is divided into four parts.Introduction introduces the research background and significance.
The first part is the economic cycle and the studies abroad FDI literatures review and a brief introduction to economic cycles and FDI definition, classification and relationships between them.
The second part of this paper introduces a few selected countries in the development of direct investment in China and their respective features. The next part of this chapter generally compares the differences before and after the reform and opening up, and gives a simple explanation on our country's economic cycle, the characteristics of FDI's development. The following four sections separate introduce the European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea's direct investment in China and their characteristics.
The third part describes econometric model used in this article and research methods. We here adopt Ramey and Ramey's(1995) procedures to estimate two measures of economy cycles. The first one is the standard deviation of per capita real GDP growth. Another one relates to residuals from the regression that explains long-run per capita real GDP growth. In the econometric model we use the linear regression and panel regression. In addition, we have done two tests, and thus determine the random effects model.
The fourth part, the empirical analysis about economic cycle of the major developed countries which have the most impact in our country's FDI.First, we make a simple instructions of the variables, the selection of data and study the causes and circumstances.In variable selection, we followed the previous methods, use the real per capita GDP growth, GDP in the proportion of total investment, the level of human capital (employment), the population growth rate, inflation rate, openness degree (GDP in total imports and exports), real exchange rates and interest rates (bond interest rates) and other data sets. According the Statistical Yearbook we choose four countries in turn which have the most FDI in China:EU, U.S., Japan and South Korea. Selected countries in the EU, we actually on the bases of the total number to choose countries which we want to discuss. Germany, the Netherlands, Britain, France, Italy, these five countries in the EU trade accounted for more than 72%. As far of 2007, these five countries total actual investment in China is upto 52.089 billion U.S.dollars, accounting for 88.01%.Therefore, we use the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Italy, these five countries as representatives of the EU's direct investment in this paper.
The following section introduces a simple theoretical framework to explain cyclical FDI decisions of entrepreneurs. This explanation is from the microscopic point to view the impact of economic cycles on FDI.
In this part, we carried out our empirical analysis about economic cycle of the major developed countries which have the most impact in our country's FDI. First of all, make a return on this simple cycle in these eight countries respectively. From the regression results we can clearly see that, these countries on business cycle fluctuations all have their own negative impact on FDI. Performance in the regression equation is a negative correlation between the FDI and the GDP. Therefore, a country's higher per capita real GDP growth corresponds to a lower average level of FDI outflows. A larger fluctuations in the economy lead to a lower FDI outflows. Then, we return to FDI in these countries replaced by Chinese FDI, from the changed dates'regression results we still see such a negative relation. Although the absolute value from the point of view, the latter coefficient is smaller than the former one, but the results still show that these fluctuations in these developed countries'economic cycles lead to a reduction in FDI in China. Finally, make panel regression, and the result is still a good proof of our conclusion, that is, correlation between the developed countries'economic cycle and China's FDI is a negative relationship.
We then make a further and deeper economic cycle research. Devided the economic cycle as economic growth and economic recession. At this point, with the help of a business cycle fluctuations on behalf of dummy variables to achieve the whole process. When the value of dum is 1,the economy is in boom, when the value of dum is 0, the economy is in recession. At this time our results show that when the economy is in recession, these countries fall in the number of China's FDI, but in the boom when the change is not significant.Then we come to the conclusion: major developed countries'economy cycle has a negatively correlated relationship with FDI in China. And this negative correlation between the performance during the recession is particularly evident but in the economic boom were not significant.
To make our conclusions more perfect, we join the China's own business cycle finally. Although only do a simple comparison show, still clearly to see that when our country is in economic prosperity, more FDI will be abstracted.
Finally come to this conclusion. With the combined group dates from 1985 to 2007, we find:economic cycles in developed countries'outside the flow of FDI has a negative impact, that is, the larger fluctuations in the economic cycle, the less FDI outflows.We can clearly see this negative relationship by the regression results in correlation coefficients. In addition, we also find that seveloped countries in the economic cycle on their investment volume of FDI in China have the same negative impact. The larger fluctuations in the economy lead to the decline in developed countries' FDI outflows, their investment in China's FDI decreased accordingly is also reasonable. This negative correlation is not in contradiction. However, this effect is not symmetrical. Fluctuations in the economic recession will increase a country's FDI outflows while negative impact of fluctuations in the boom will not. That is, when a country at a time when the economic recession, the FDI flows will reduce the number of outside, but when it is in boom time, the FDI flow will not change things much. Do a simple analysis on China's economic cycle we can know, when the national economy is in boom, the foreign direct investment inflows will increase.
本文利用影响我国FDI的主要发达国家1985年至2007年的年度数据,使用线性回归和面板回归,用了两种方法——人均实际国内生产总值的标准差和回归残差,将这些国家的经济周期波动对我国FDI的影响做了一个简单的分析,并用豪斯曼检验得出随机效应模型在整个测量方法中具有优势。最后对整个经济周期波动进行了更进一步的研究,并加入中国的经济周期做了一个简单的分析。
结果表明,这些发达国家的经济周期波动与他们对我国的FDI有一个负相关的关系,这种负相关关系在经济衰退期尤为明显,而在经济繁荣期则没有显著变化。此外,中国自身的经济周期也对本国的FDI流入量产生影响。投资国和东道国的经济周期波动都对FDI产生影响,这为分析我国FDI提供了一个简单的参考。
With the development of economy, any country is hard separated from world economy. Economic cycle has been an important part of economics, and with economic globalization and development, foreign direct investment theory has become a more and more popular subject. In recent years, China's rapid economic development has attracted worldwide attention, there have been many studies on economic cycles and FDI in some literatures. This paper attempts a new perspective to study the relationship between the economic cycles and FDI. China as the host, starting from some of the largest developed countries which have the most impact in our country's FDI, analyzes these countries'economic cycle and try to find how these cycles change their investments in China, besides, we want to know what affect FDI. For the more comprehensive description of the economic cycle and the relationship between FDI in China, we finally joined our country's economic cycle, simple instructions are compared.
This paper is divided into four parts.Introduction introduces the research background and significance.
The first part is the economic cycle and the studies abroad FDI literatures review and a brief introduction to economic cycles and FDI definition, classification and relationships between them.
The second part of this paper introduces a few selected countries in the development of direct investment in China and their respective features. The next part of this chapter generally compares the differences before and after the reform and opening up, and gives a simple explanation on our country's economic cycle, the characteristics of FDI's development. The following four sections separate introduce the European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea's direct investment in China and their characteristics.
The third part describes econometric model used in this article and research methods. We here adopt Ramey and Ramey's(1995) procedures to estimate two measures of economy cycles. The first one is the standard deviation of per capita real GDP growth. Another one relates to residuals from the regression that explains long-run per capita real GDP growth. In the econometric model we use the linear regression and panel regression. In addition, we have done two tests, and thus determine the random effects model.
The fourth part, the empirical analysis about economic cycle of the major developed countries which have the most impact in our country's FDI.First, we make a simple instructions of the variables, the selection of data and study the causes and circumstances.In variable selection, we followed the previous methods, use the real per capita GDP growth, GDP in the proportion of total investment, the level of human capital (employment), the population growth rate, inflation rate, openness degree (GDP in total imports and exports), real exchange rates and interest rates (bond interest rates) and other data sets. According the Statistical Yearbook we choose four countries in turn which have the most FDI in China:EU, U.S., Japan and South Korea. Selected countries in the EU, we actually on the bases of the total number to choose countries which we want to discuss. Germany, the Netherlands, Britain, France, Italy, these five countries in the EU trade accounted for more than 72%. As far of 2007, these five countries total actual investment in China is upto 52.089 billion U.S.dollars, accounting for 88.01%.Therefore, we use the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Italy, these five countries as representatives of the EU's direct investment in this paper.
The following section introduces a simple theoretical framework to explain cyclical FDI decisions of entrepreneurs. This explanation is from the microscopic point to view the impact of economic cycles on FDI.
In this part, we carried out our empirical analysis about economic cycle of the major developed countries which have the most impact in our country's FDI. First of all, make a return on this simple cycle in these eight countries respectively. From the regression results we can clearly see that, these countries on business cycle fluctuations all have their own negative impact on FDI. Performance in the regression equation is a negative correlation between the FDI and the GDP. Therefore, a country's higher per capita real GDP growth corresponds to a lower average level of FDI outflows. A larger fluctuations in the economy lead to a lower FDI outflows. Then, we return to FDI in these countries replaced by Chinese FDI, from the changed dates'regression results we still see such a negative relation. Although the absolute value from the point of view, the latter coefficient is smaller than the former one, but the results still show that these fluctuations in these developed countries'economic cycles lead to a reduction in FDI in China. Finally, make panel regression, and the result is still a good proof of our conclusion, that is, correlation between the developed countries'economic cycle and China's FDI is a negative relationship.
We then make a further and deeper economic cycle research. Devided the economic cycle as economic growth and economic recession. At this point, with the help of a business cycle fluctuations on behalf of dummy variables to achieve the whole process. When the value of dum is 1,the economy is in boom, when the value of dum is 0, the economy is in recession. At this time our results show that when the economy is in recession, these countries fall in the number of China's FDI, but in the boom when the change is not significant.Then we come to the conclusion: major developed countries'economy cycle has a negatively correlated relationship with FDI in China. And this negative correlation between the performance during the recession is particularly evident but in the economic boom were not significant.
To make our conclusions more perfect, we join the China's own business cycle finally. Although only do a simple comparison show, still clearly to see that when our country is in economic prosperity, more FDI will be abstracted.
Finally come to this conclusion. With the combined group dates from 1985 to 2007, we find:economic cycles in developed countries'outside the flow of FDI has a negative impact, that is, the larger fluctuations in the economic cycle, the less FDI outflows.We can clearly see this negative relationship by the regression results in correlation coefficients. In addition, we also find that seveloped countries in the economic cycle on their investment volume of FDI in China have the same negative impact. The larger fluctuations in the economy lead to the decline in developed countries' FDI outflows, their investment in China's FDI decreased accordingly is also reasonable. This negative correlation is not in contradiction. However, this effect is not symmetrical. Fluctuations in the economic recession will increase a country's FDI outflows while negative impact of fluctuations in the boom will not. That is, when a country at a time when the economic recession, the FDI flows will reduce the number of outside, but when it is in boom time, the FDI flow will not change things much. Do a simple analysis on China's economic cycle we can know, when the national economy is in boom, the foreign direct investment inflows will increase.
引文
[1]Aizenman, Joshua. Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investmen[J]. NBER Working Paper 3953(1992).
[2]Barro, Robert.J. and Jong.W.Lee. International Comparisons of Eductational Attainment[J].Journal of Monetary Economics 32(1993):63-94.
[3]Blonigen, Bruce.A. Firm-Specific Assets and the link between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment[J].American Economic Review 87(1997):47-65.
[4]Borensztein, E.J.De Gregorio and J.W.Lee. How does Foreign Direct Investment affect Economic Growth[J].Journal of International Economics 45(1998):15-35.
[5]Brainard, S.Lael. An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade.American Economic Review 87(1997):20-44.
[6]Campa, Joe M. Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States Under Exchange Rate Uncertainty[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics 75(1993):14-22.
[7]Carr.David L.,James R.Markusen and Keith E. Maskus. Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise[J].American Economic Review 91(2001):63-78.
[8]Cushman, David. Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment[M].The Review of Economics and Statistics 67(1985): 297-308.
[9]Devereux, Michael and Charles Engel. The Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime:Price-setting Rules and Internationalized Production[J].NBER Working Paper 6992(1999).
[10]Erickson, Timothy and Toni Whited. Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and Q[J].Journal of Monetary Economics 108(2000):
27-57.
[11]Fazzari, Steven, Glemm Hubbard and Bruce Petersen. Financing Constraints and Corporate investment[J]. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 1(1988):41-95.
[12]Fisher,Irving.The Theory of Interest[J].New York,NY:Macmillan Co.(1930).
[13]Frankel, Jeffrey. On Exchange Rates.Cambridge, MA:MIT Press(1993).
[14]Froot, Kenneth and Jeremy Stein. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment:An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(1991):191-217.
[15]Gilchrist, Simon and Charles Himmelberg. Evidence on the Role of Cash Flow for Investment[J].Journal of Monetary Economics 36(1995).
[16]Glass, Amy and Kamal Saggi.Intellectual Property Right and Foreign Direct Investmen[J].Journal of International Economics 56(2002):287-410.
[17]Hirshleifer, Jack. On the Theory of Optimal Investment Decision[J].Journal of Political Economy 66(1958):29-52.
[18]Kogut, Bruce and Sea Jin Chang. Technological Capabilities and Japanese Foreign Direct Investment in the United States[J].Review of Economics and Statistics 73(1991):1-13.
[19]Larrain, Felipe and Rodrigo Vergara. Investment and Macroeconomic Adjustment:The Case of East Asia. Regional and Sectoral Studies. Striving for Growth After Adjustment:The Role of Capital Formation. Washington,D.C: World Bank(1993):29-74.
[20]Levine, Ross and David Renelt. A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions[J]. American Economic Review82(1992).
[21]Markusen, James R. and Keith E.Maskus. Discriminating Among Alternative Theories of the Multinational Enterprise [J]. NBER Working Paper 7164(1999).
[22]Ramey, Garey and Ramey, Valerie A. Cross Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth[J].American Economic Review 85(1995):38-51.
[23]卞淑贤.美国对华直接投资和中美贸易之间关系的探讨[D].中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库,2007,(01).
[24]陈建南.经济全球化中的国际直接投资研究[D].厦门大学,2003(3).
[25]杜吉中.FDI对我国经济发展与经济周期波动的影响研究[D].湘大.2004.
[26]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模：Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社.2006年第1版.
[27]胡蜂,韩亚辉.对FDI理论发展演变的脉络探析与评述[N].西北第二民族学院学报.2002.
[28]胡松华.现代西方跨国公司理论的发展[J].国际经贸探索,1997(6).
[29]李楠.美国对华投资在其对外投资中低地位的原因分析[J].经济研究导刊,2007(8).
[30]林逍.日本对华直接投资浅析[D].中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库,2008,(11).
[31]刘军荣.FDI流量变化与世界经济周期的相关性分析[D].四川大学经济学院.2006.
[32]卢嘉瑞,徐圣银.论改革开放以来中国经济的周期性波动[J].经济评论,2002(1)：95—99.
[33]聂名华.发达国家境外直接投资理论比较研究[J].山东经济,2002(1).
[34]石柱鲜,黄红梅,邓创.贸易对中日韩经济周期协动性的影响研究[J].东北亚论坛,2009(4).
[35]石柱鲜,蒋学雷,李龙振,石圣东.中日韩三国经济的相互影响分析[J].世界经济,2001(4).
[36]石柱鲜,吕有晨.论企业对外直接投资对韩国产业结构的影响[J].世界经济,1999(10).
[37]孙焱林,陈薇薇.全球外商直接投资周期波动因素的实证分析[D].华中科技大学经济学院.2006.
[38]王淼.外商直接投资与经济周期波动[D].Marquette University.2003.
[39]杨建龙.跨国公司理论的回顾与评析[J].当代经济科学,1997(6).
[40]杨宇光,刘夏明.试论国际直接投资的含义与发展趋势[J].世界经济情况,1995(1).
[41]叶文佳,于津平.欧盟对中国FDI与中欧贸易关系的实证研究[J].世界经济与政治论坛.2009.
[42]袁欣,郑陶.美国在华FDI对中美经贸关系的影响[J].时代经贸,2007(46).
[43]曾慧.FDI与中国经济增长[D].中国博士学位论文全文数据库,2009,(01).
[44](美)詹姆斯D.汉密尔顿著.刘明志译.时间序列分析[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,1999.
[45]张纪康.跨国公司与直接投资[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2004：117—126.
[2]Barro, Robert.J. and Jong.W.Lee. International Comparisons of Eductational Attainment[J].Journal of Monetary Economics 32(1993):63-94.
[3]Blonigen, Bruce.A. Firm-Specific Assets and the link between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment[J].American Economic Review 87(1997):47-65.
[4]Borensztein, E.J.De Gregorio and J.W.Lee. How does Foreign Direct Investment affect Economic Growth[J].Journal of International Economics 45(1998):15-35.
[5]Brainard, S.Lael. An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade.American Economic Review 87(1997):20-44.
[6]Campa, Joe M. Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States Under Exchange Rate Uncertainty[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics 75(1993):14-22.
[7]Carr.David L.,James R.Markusen and Keith E. Maskus. Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise[J].American Economic Review 91(2001):63-78.
[8]Cushman, David. Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment[M].The Review of Economics and Statistics 67(1985): 297-308.
[9]Devereux, Michael and Charles Engel. The Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime:Price-setting Rules and Internationalized Production[J].NBER Working Paper 6992(1999).
[10]Erickson, Timothy and Toni Whited. Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and Q[J].Journal of Monetary Economics 108(2000):
27-57.
[11]Fazzari, Steven, Glemm Hubbard and Bruce Petersen. Financing Constraints and Corporate investment[J]. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 1(1988):41-95.
[12]Fisher,Irving.The Theory of Interest[J].New York,NY:Macmillan Co.(1930).
[13]Frankel, Jeffrey. On Exchange Rates.Cambridge, MA:MIT Press(1993).
[14]Froot, Kenneth and Jeremy Stein. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment:An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(1991):191-217.
[15]Gilchrist, Simon and Charles Himmelberg. Evidence on the Role of Cash Flow for Investment[J].Journal of Monetary Economics 36(1995).
[16]Glass, Amy and Kamal Saggi.Intellectual Property Right and Foreign Direct Investmen[J].Journal of International Economics 56(2002):287-410.
[17]Hirshleifer, Jack. On the Theory of Optimal Investment Decision[J].Journal of Political Economy 66(1958):29-52.
[18]Kogut, Bruce and Sea Jin Chang. Technological Capabilities and Japanese Foreign Direct Investment in the United States[J].Review of Economics and Statistics 73(1991):1-13.
[19]Larrain, Felipe and Rodrigo Vergara. Investment and Macroeconomic Adjustment:The Case of East Asia. Regional and Sectoral Studies. Striving for Growth After Adjustment:The Role of Capital Formation. Washington,D.C: World Bank(1993):29-74.
[20]Levine, Ross and David Renelt. A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions[J]. American Economic Review82(1992).
[21]Markusen, James R. and Keith E.Maskus. Discriminating Among Alternative Theories of the Multinational Enterprise [J]. NBER Working Paper 7164(1999).
[22]Ramey, Garey and Ramey, Valerie A. Cross Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth[J].American Economic Review 85(1995):38-51.
[23]卞淑贤.美国对华直接投资和中美贸易之间关系的探讨[D].中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库,2007,(01).
[24]陈建南.经济全球化中的国际直接投资研究[D].厦门大学,2003(3).
[25]杜吉中.FDI对我国经济发展与经济周期波动的影响研究[D].湘大.2004.
[26]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模：Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社.2006年第1版.
[27]胡蜂,韩亚辉.对FDI理论发展演变的脉络探析与评述[N].西北第二民族学院学报.2002.
[28]胡松华.现代西方跨国公司理论的发展[J].国际经贸探索,1997(6).
[29]李楠.美国对华投资在其对外投资中低地位的原因分析[J].经济研究导刊,2007(8).
[30]林逍.日本对华直接投资浅析[D].中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库,2008,(11).
[31]刘军荣.FDI流量变化与世界经济周期的相关性分析[D].四川大学经济学院.2006.
[32]卢嘉瑞,徐圣银.论改革开放以来中国经济的周期性波动[J].经济评论,2002(1)：95—99.
[33]聂名华.发达国家境外直接投资理论比较研究[J].山东经济,2002(1).
[34]石柱鲜,黄红梅,邓创.贸易对中日韩经济周期协动性的影响研究[J].东北亚论坛,2009(4).
[35]石柱鲜,蒋学雷,李龙振,石圣东.中日韩三国经济的相互影响分析[J].世界经济,2001(4).
[36]石柱鲜,吕有晨.论企业对外直接投资对韩国产业结构的影响[J].世界经济,1999(10).
[37]孙焱林,陈薇薇.全球外商直接投资周期波动因素的实证分析[D].华中科技大学经济学院.2006.
[38]王淼.外商直接投资与经济周期波动[D].Marquette University.2003.
[39]杨建龙.跨国公司理论的回顾与评析[J].当代经济科学,1997(6).
[40]杨宇光,刘夏明.试论国际直接投资的含义与发展趋势[J].世界经济情况,1995(1).
[41]叶文佳,于津平.欧盟对中国FDI与中欧贸易关系的实证研究[J].世界经济与政治论坛.2009.
[42]袁欣,郑陶.美国在华FDI对中美经贸关系的影响[J].时代经贸,2007(46).
[43]曾慧.FDI与中国经济增长[D].中国博士学位论文全文数据库,2009,(01).
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