从市场角度看当前全球经济失衡
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摘要
美国的经常账户逆差及中国的经常账户顺差在最近的新闻和多数国际宏观经济学研究中都占了主导地位。尽管如此,失衡的态势并不局限于上述两国,而是蔓延到包括欧元区、日本、东亚及石油出口国等多数发达国家和新兴市场在内的全球范围。对于当前的格局,有不少学者表示了担心,认为失衡规模太大,终将不能持续,政府必须干预。也有学者认为,失衡主要反映了市场的力量,局面尚不足为虑,最终将以良性方式得到解决。笔者的目的在于检验两个说法中哪个更符合逻辑。论文探讨了如下问题:当前的失衡现象有哪些主要特点?导致失衡产生的根本原因是什么?失衡格局的发展前景如何?失衡可能通过哪些渠道得到缓解?结论表明,从失衡背后的根本力量看,全球化的作用相当突出。在导致失衡的根本力量未发生逆转的情况下,失衡格局会在一个相当长的时间内持续。而在国际货币体制方面,一定程度加剧失衡的“转生布雷顿森林体系”不会存在太久,且其并非是导致失衡的决定性力量。分析意味着,汇率问题并不像媒体和舆论所认为的那么重要。此外,改变国际增长格局虽能帮助缓解失衡但程度有限。最后,旨在减少市场扭曲的国内政策或许能收到减轻失衡的效果,但这不应成为其本意所在。
The U.S. current account deficit and the Chinese current account surplus have dominated both the news and much of the research in international macroeconomics in the recent past. However, the whole story is far beyond these. Most advanced economies and emerging markets, including Euro area, Japan, East Asia, and oil exporters, are all more or less involved. To caricature, there are roughly two views as of the ongoing situation. The first and more prevalent view is a gloomy view. It is said that, the sizes of ongoing imbalances are too large to be sustainable; the doomed reversal is looming; and government intervention is desirable. In contrast, the second view look things in a more benign way. It is argued that, to the extent that ongoing imbalances are primarily market-driven, it is not such a real problem; and there are no reasons for government to intervene. The purpose of this paper is to test which view is more relevant in logic. I ask the following questions: What are the main characteristics of ongoing imbalances? How does the status quo come into being? How will it evolve? Through which channels should it be alleviated? I conclude that, the increasingly deepened globalization indeed plays a prominent role in shaping ongoing imbalances, the reasonability could be justified by existence itself, and, without unwinding the underlying fundamentals, the status quo will last for a quiet long period. As regard to international monetary system, although the revived Bretton Woods System does exacerbate the ongoing patterns of imbalances, it is not so relevant in the first place and will phase out much quicker than its precedent. The analysis also implies that, perhaps the real exchange rate problems are not as important as media and consensus have suggested. Moreover, international growth realignment does help solve global imbalances, but only to a limited degree. And lastly, domestic policies aiming at reducing market distortions may lead to a more favorable external balance, but only as a by-product at most.
The U.S. current account deficit and the Chinese current account surplus have dominated both the news and much of the research in international macroeconomics in the recent past. However, the whole story is far beyond these. Most advanced economies and emerging markets, including Euro area, Japan, East Asia, and oil exporters, are all more or less involved. To caricature, there are roughly two views as of the ongoing situation. The first and more prevalent view is a gloomy view. It is said that, the sizes of ongoing imbalances are too large to be sustainable; the doomed reversal is looming; and government intervention is desirable. In contrast, the second view look things in a more benign way. It is argued that, to the extent that ongoing imbalances are primarily market-driven, it is not such a real problem; and there are no reasons for government to intervene. The purpose of this paper is to test which view is more relevant in logic. I ask the following questions: What are the main characteristics of ongoing imbalances? How does the status quo come into being? How will it evolve? Through which channels should it be alleviated? I conclude that, the increasingly deepened globalization indeed plays a prominent role in shaping ongoing imbalances, the reasonability could be justified by existence itself, and, without unwinding the underlying fundamentals, the status quo will last for a quiet long period. As regard to international monetary system, although the revived Bretton Woods System does exacerbate the ongoing patterns of imbalances, it is not so relevant in the first place and will phase out much quicker than its precedent. The analysis also implies that, perhaps the real exchange rate problems are not as important as media and consensus have suggested. Moreover, international growth realignment does help solve global imbalances, but only to a limited degree. And lastly, domestic policies aiming at reducing market distortions may lead to a more favorable external balance, but only as a by-product at most.
引文
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