金融危机与产业均衡
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摘要
通过金融危机发生的条件分析,将金融危机的发展阶段分拆成为可控的几个小部分,从产业层面上建立起一个由几个循环组成的经济动态圈,选择由实体经济领域(法人公司,以制造业和房地产业为例)、金融中介机构(银行业为例)为主体,加上政府宏观经济政策、国际金融资本市场和资产定价等危机爆发条件的分析,研究各产业的均衡与金融危机发生、发展的关系。
把金融危机理论的研究与经济系统中各产业发展状况相联系,从产业的层面上,阐述银行业、房地产业和制造业的市场结构、市场行为和产业绩效。从各产业的市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效的不同特征中,分析研究产业均衡和产业间的互动机制。
由银行业、房地产业与制造业的利率结构、信贷资金结构、价格结构、投资结构之间产生均衡,实现实体经济中产业结构的均衡。通过信贷结构与产业结构两者间的均衡与互动关系的分析,不难发现在资产价格变动变动的条件下,银行业、制造业产业和房地产业三者之间存在的均衡与互动的关系,也即银行业信贷资金结构的变动、以制造业为代表的实体经济中产业结构的变动和房地产业虚拟经济的特征之间存在的的均衡与互动关系。
我国的实证研究表明,在银行业、房地产业和制造业产业均衡互动过程中,各产业内的市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效之间具有内在的发展规律。同时,产业间存在相互作用相互影响的关系。通过产业关联效应、价格协调和作用机制,达到价格结构变动、产业结构变动与投资结构变动的相互作用,以及利率结构变动、信贷结构变动与投资结构变动的相互作用。使得银行业、房地产业和制造业形成均衡互动发展。银行信贷短期内能够促进GDP和房地产业增长,银行信贷的增加对制造业在短期内具有抑制作用,随后产生促进作用,对GDP、制造业和房地产业具有持久的刺激效用。银行业贷款的增加同样也会带动制造业贷款和房地产业贷款的增长。房地产业对GDP和制造业具有促进作用,增加房地产信贷和制造业信贷的总量,但是对银行信贷却具有一定的替代效用。制造业的发展会促进房地产业的发展,信贷的增长和房地产信贷的增加。
Through the analysis of the condition of financial crises, financial crisis stage of development of the spin-off of several small, be controlled from industrial level to establish a composed by several cycles, the choice of economic circle by dynamic economy, (the manufacturing and real estate, for example), the financial intermediaries (for example) for banking and government macro economic policies, international financial capital market and asset pricing etc crisis conditions of industrial analysis, research and balanced development of the financial crisis.
The theory of financial crisis and economic system in the industry development, the level of industry, banking, real estate and manufacturing of market structure, market behavior and industrial performance. From the market structure, market behavior and market performance of different features, analysis and balanced industrial interaction mechanism.
By the banking, real estate and manufacturing rate structure, credit capital structure, the price structure, the investment structure, realize the balance between economic entity of the industrial structure. Through the credit structure and industrial structure of the balance between interactive relationship with the analysis, find in asset prices change, change under the conditions of the banking industry, manufacturing industry and real estate industry of equilibrium between the interaction, i.e. banking credit capital structure change, represented in manufacturing industrial structure in the economic entity changes and characteristic of real estate industry of virtual economy exists between the equilibrium and the interactive relationship.
Our empirical study shows that, in banking, real estate and manufacturing industries interaction process, the equilibrium within the industry of market structure, market behavior and market performance between the law of development. At the same time, the interaction between industrial interaction relationship. Through the industry association effect, the price mechanism, to coordinate and structure change, the price of the change of industrial structure and the investment structure, and the interaction between structure change interest rates, credit structure changes and investment structure change of interaction. Banking, real estate development and manufacturing formation equilibrium interaction. Bank credit short-term can promote GDP growth, the real estate industry and increase of bank credit for manufacturing in the short term, with subsequent inhibition of GDP, promote manufacturing and real estate has lasting stimulate utility. Banks loan may also increase driven manufacturing and real estate mortgage loan growth. Real estate industry to GDP and manufacturing, real estate has increased the amount of credit credit and manufacturing of bank credit, but has some alternative utility. The development of the manufacturing industry will accelerate the development of real estate industry, credit growth and housing credit.
把金融危机理论的研究与经济系统中各产业发展状况相联系,从产业的层面上,阐述银行业、房地产业和制造业的市场结构、市场行为和产业绩效。从各产业的市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效的不同特征中,分析研究产业均衡和产业间的互动机制。
由银行业、房地产业与制造业的利率结构、信贷资金结构、价格结构、投资结构之间产生均衡,实现实体经济中产业结构的均衡。通过信贷结构与产业结构两者间的均衡与互动关系的分析,不难发现在资产价格变动变动的条件下,银行业、制造业产业和房地产业三者之间存在的均衡与互动的关系,也即银行业信贷资金结构的变动、以制造业为代表的实体经济中产业结构的变动和房地产业虚拟经济的特征之间存在的的均衡与互动关系。
我国的实证研究表明,在银行业、房地产业和制造业产业均衡互动过程中,各产业内的市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效之间具有内在的发展规律。同时,产业间存在相互作用相互影响的关系。通过产业关联效应、价格协调和作用机制,达到价格结构变动、产业结构变动与投资结构变动的相互作用,以及利率结构变动、信贷结构变动与投资结构变动的相互作用。使得银行业、房地产业和制造业形成均衡互动发展。银行信贷短期内能够促进GDP和房地产业增长,银行信贷的增加对制造业在短期内具有抑制作用,随后产生促进作用,对GDP、制造业和房地产业具有持久的刺激效用。银行业贷款的增加同样也会带动制造业贷款和房地产业贷款的增长。房地产业对GDP和制造业具有促进作用,增加房地产信贷和制造业信贷的总量,但是对银行信贷却具有一定的替代效用。制造业的发展会促进房地产业的发展,信贷的增长和房地产信贷的增加。
Through the analysis of the condition of financial crises, financial crisis stage of development of the spin-off of several small, be controlled from industrial level to establish a composed by several cycles, the choice of economic circle by dynamic economy, (the manufacturing and real estate, for example), the financial intermediaries (for example) for banking and government macro economic policies, international financial capital market and asset pricing etc crisis conditions of industrial analysis, research and balanced development of the financial crisis.
The theory of financial crisis and economic system in the industry development, the level of industry, banking, real estate and manufacturing of market structure, market behavior and industrial performance. From the market structure, market behavior and market performance of different features, analysis and balanced industrial interaction mechanism.
By the banking, real estate and manufacturing rate structure, credit capital structure, the price structure, the investment structure, realize the balance between economic entity of the industrial structure. Through the credit structure and industrial structure of the balance between interactive relationship with the analysis, find in asset prices change, change under the conditions of the banking industry, manufacturing industry and real estate industry of equilibrium between the interaction, i.e. banking credit capital structure change, represented in manufacturing industrial structure in the economic entity changes and characteristic of real estate industry of virtual economy exists between the equilibrium and the interactive relationship.
Our empirical study shows that, in banking, real estate and manufacturing industries interaction process, the equilibrium within the industry of market structure, market behavior and market performance between the law of development. At the same time, the interaction between industrial interaction relationship. Through the industry association effect, the price mechanism, to coordinate and structure change, the price of the change of industrial structure and the investment structure, and the interaction between structure change interest rates, credit structure changes and investment structure change of interaction. Banking, real estate development and manufacturing formation equilibrium interaction. Bank credit short-term can promote GDP growth, the real estate industry and increase of bank credit for manufacturing in the short term, with subsequent inhibition of GDP, promote manufacturing and real estate has lasting stimulate utility. Banks loan may also increase driven manufacturing and real estate mortgage loan growth. Real estate industry to GDP and manufacturing, real estate has increased the amount of credit credit and manufacturing of bank credit, but has some alternative utility. The development of the manufacturing industry will accelerate the development of real estate industry, credit growth and housing credit.
引文
①参见Jeane 0. Models of currency crises:Atentative synthesis with special reference to the 1992-1993 EMS crisis [M].1995、Krugman P. What happened to Asian[M]. MIT,1998.
②这种由资产泡沫导致的危机的典型实例有1907年的美国银行业危机,1929年美国股票市场崩溃,90年代的日本经济危机。
③ Krugman(1998)利用一个简单的模型分析了道德危机导致过度风险投资的原因,并将这一模型用于揭示东亚危机。
①谢泼德(W. G. Shepherd).赫芬达尔指数(Herfindahl index).新帕尔格雷夫经济学大词典.卷1.北京：经济科学出版社,1996.
① Gasprombank银行,由俄罗斯国家控股的石油巨头投资所成立的一家银行,于2001年发行了1.5亿欧元的两年期债券。Alfa银行是俄罗斯最大的私人银行,于2002年发行了2亿欧元的欧洲债券,这是在危机后该银行在资本市场的首次冒险尝试。
② Glenn Hogarth、Ricardo Reis 和 Victoria Saporta所著：Cost of Bnaking System Instability:Some Empirical Evidence,英格兰银行,2001年。
①参见崔晓峰.银行业组织理论与政策研究[D]。北京：中国社会科学研究生院,2003.p76.
①该图引自崔晓峰.银行业组织理论与政策研究[M]。北京：机械工业出版社,2005.p.59。
①参见崔晓峰.银行业组织理论与政策研究[M]。北京：机械工业出版社,2005.p189。
①通常是按照不断下降的平均成本函数来定义的。
②通常是以一家银行生产多种产品和多家银行分别生产一种产品的相对总成本来定义的。
③该图引自杨德勇.金融产业组织理论研究[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2004,p46
④银行固化成本分为：1.银行专业技术人员的人力资源投资属于相对固化的成本投入,是银行的一种相对
①目前几乎所有的州都允许开展跨州银行业业务,1991年美国财政改革提案甚至建议允许银行自由在全国范围内建立分支机构。参见阿伦N伯格尔(Allen N. Berger).金融市场进入障碍.新帕尔格雷夫货币金融大辞典.卷1.北京：经济科学出版社,2000。
②即银行的董事层、管理层在其位置应是适当和适合的。并要求管理人员正直、富于竞争和善于判断,能勤奋地履行其指责。为了保护公众利益,英格兰银行还做出如下规定：一是在过去的经营活动中没有涉及欺诈和其他不诚信或犯罪行为；二是没有因其不诚信、不胜任或玩忽职守而在银行业以及保险、投资等其他银行服务或公司管理中造成损失或机构倒闭；三是在业务经营中没有进行欺骗或触犯法律等不适当的业务活动；四是没有从事难以胜任的业务活动。
③要求一项银行业务至少由两个业务经验丰富、有管理决策能力的人进行有效的管理。实际上,各国银行业普遍采用“六眼”或“四眼”原则。
④第一、要求银行的资本能适应银行业务的性质和规模,能保护存款人和潜在存款人的利益,抵御风险。第二、要保持银行资产与负债在期限、结构和利率上匹配,使期限、结构和利率缺口控制在风险控制范围内。第三、要有充足的风险准备金,包括不良贷款的准备金,以覆盖风险。第四、要有完善的会计纪录和内控制度。
⑤根据美国银行控股公司法案,市场过分集中是评估银行控股公司申请从事非银行金融活动时的重要因素。这是联邦储备委员会否决银行控股公司收购抵押银行业务和消费金融业内的依据。
①参见W.G谢泼德(W.G. Shepherd).赫芬达尔指数(Herfindahl index).新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典.卷1.北京：经济科学出版社,1996。
②麦克斯·奥托·洛伦兹(Max Otto Lorenz)美国统计学家,在1905年提出这一曲线,用以分析和比较一个国家在不同时期,或不同国家同一时期的财富不均等状况。科拉多·基尼(Corrado Gini)意大利统计学家,在1912年提出这一度量收入不平等的方法,也称为基尼比率(Gini Ratio).
①该图引自崔晓峰.银行产业组织理论与政策研究[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2005,p156-157
①美国仅1980年发生188起银行兼并案例,兼并资产金额为93亿美元；而在1987年则超过700起,涉及1300亿美元资产。
②参见崔晓峰.银行产业组织理论与政策研究[M].北京：机械工业出版社.2005,p159-164.
①参见《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》,第1卷,第306页。
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②这种由资产泡沫导致的危机的典型实例有1907年的美国银行业危机,1929年美国股票市场崩溃,90年代的日本经济危机。
③ Krugman(1998)利用一个简单的模型分析了道德危机导致过度风险投资的原因,并将这一模型用于揭示东亚危机。
①谢泼德(W. G. Shepherd).赫芬达尔指数(Herfindahl index).新帕尔格雷夫经济学大词典.卷1.北京：经济科学出版社,1996.
① Gasprombank银行,由俄罗斯国家控股的石油巨头投资所成立的一家银行,于2001年发行了1.5亿欧元的两年期债券。Alfa银行是俄罗斯最大的私人银行,于2002年发行了2亿欧元的欧洲债券,这是在危机后该银行在资本市场的首次冒险尝试。
② Glenn Hogarth、Ricardo Reis 和 Victoria Saporta所著：Cost of Bnaking System Instability:Some Empirical Evidence,英格兰银行,2001年。
①参见崔晓峰.银行业组织理论与政策研究[D]。北京：中国社会科学研究生院,2003.p76.
①该图引自崔晓峰.银行业组织理论与政策研究[M]。北京：机械工业出版社,2005.p.59。
①参见崔晓峰.银行业组织理论与政策研究[M]。北京：机械工业出版社,2005.p189。
①通常是按照不断下降的平均成本函数来定义的。
②通常是以一家银行生产多种产品和多家银行分别生产一种产品的相对总成本来定义的。
③该图引自杨德勇.金融产业组织理论研究[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2004,p46
④银行固化成本分为：1.银行专业技术人员的人力资源投资属于相对固化的成本投入,是银行的一种相对
①目前几乎所有的州都允许开展跨州银行业业务,1991年美国财政改革提案甚至建议允许银行自由在全国范围内建立分支机构。参见阿伦N伯格尔(Allen N. Berger).金融市场进入障碍.新帕尔格雷夫货币金融大辞典.卷1.北京：经济科学出版社,2000。
②即银行的董事层、管理层在其位置应是适当和适合的。并要求管理人员正直、富于竞争和善于判断,能勤奋地履行其指责。为了保护公众利益,英格兰银行还做出如下规定：一是在过去的经营活动中没有涉及欺诈和其他不诚信或犯罪行为；二是没有因其不诚信、不胜任或玩忽职守而在银行业以及保险、投资等其他银行服务或公司管理中造成损失或机构倒闭；三是在业务经营中没有进行欺骗或触犯法律等不适当的业务活动；四是没有从事难以胜任的业务活动。
③要求一项银行业务至少由两个业务经验丰富、有管理决策能力的人进行有效的管理。实际上,各国银行业普遍采用“六眼”或“四眼”原则。
④第一、要求银行的资本能适应银行业务的性质和规模,能保护存款人和潜在存款人的利益,抵御风险。第二、要保持银行资产与负债在期限、结构和利率上匹配,使期限、结构和利率缺口控制在风险控制范围内。第三、要有充足的风险准备金,包括不良贷款的准备金,以覆盖风险。第四、要有完善的会计纪录和内控制度。
⑤根据美国银行控股公司法案,市场过分集中是评估银行控股公司申请从事非银行金融活动时的重要因素。这是联邦储备委员会否决银行控股公司收购抵押银行业务和消费金融业内的依据。
①参见W.G谢泼德(W.G. Shepherd).赫芬达尔指数(Herfindahl index).新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典.卷1.北京：经济科学出版社,1996。
②麦克斯·奥托·洛伦兹(Max Otto Lorenz)美国统计学家,在1905年提出这一曲线,用以分析和比较一个国家在不同时期,或不同国家同一时期的财富不均等状况。科拉多·基尼(Corrado Gini)意大利统计学家,在1912年提出这一度量收入不平等的方法,也称为基尼比率(Gini Ratio).
①该图引自崔晓峰.银行产业组织理论与政策研究[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2005,p156-157
①美国仅1980年发生188起银行兼并案例,兼并资产金额为93亿美元；而在1987年则超过700起,涉及1300亿美元资产。
②参见崔晓峰.银行产业组织理论与政策研究[M].北京：机械工业出版社.2005,p159-164.
①参见《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》,第1卷,第306页。
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