模糊网络分析法及其在大型工程项目风险评价中的应用研究
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摘要
大型工程项目是一种投资大、周期长、内部结构综合复杂、涉及因素众多的复杂开放系统，影响该系统的风险因素众多，影响关系错综复杂。
论文包含三个内容：首先在现有项目风险评价方法的基础上，根据层次分析法、网络分析法、以及模糊综合评判理论，提出一种新的评价方法—模糊网络分析法。网络分析法是层次分析法在依赖和反馈问题中的延伸，是一种能用来处理具有依赖和反馈关系的复杂决策问题的定量化方法。模糊网络分析法是网络分析法在不确定性和含糊性问题中的延伸，是一种能处理不确定性和含糊性的复杂问题的定量化方法。网络分析法的决策原理与层次分析法的决策原理基本相同，不同的是前者建立的是网络结构模型，而后者建立的层次结构模型。模糊网络分析法的决策原理是基于模糊综合评判决策思想，在权重的确定上，用三角模糊数来表示两两判断矩阵，基于网络分析法来构造模糊超矩阵。由于模糊网络结构模型要远比层次结构模型复杂，因此在权重合成方面，模糊网络分析法应用到了更加高深的数学知识，论文对其中比较重要的概念超矩阵的应用和分析做了比较深入的研究。
其次在现有项目风险评价研究的基础上，进一步构建了大型工程项目风险评价体系，并结合大型工程项目风险的特征，在该风险评价体系的框架指导下，运用定性与定量相结合，理论分析与应用研究相结合的方法，从大型工程项目风险特征分析、风险因素的识别、风险评价三个方面，层层深入地构建了大型工程项目风险评价模型，并对以上述研究结果为依据对风险评价的关键问题进行了分析。通过对文献的研究和问卷，根据风险指标体系的构建原则，以大型工程项目中19个关键的风险因素为对象，运用系统分析的新方法—模糊网络分析法，计算和推导出了各风险因素的权重，得出项目风险的评估级别。评价结果也为风险调控提供了一定的依据。
最后在理论研究的基础上，以某一大型工程项目为案例，运用模糊网络分析法进行了应用研究，证明了方法的科学性和有效性。
Large engineering project can be defined as complex and open systems, which arelargely invested, long cyclic, complex structure and involved a large number factors.
The dissertation discussed the following points: One is the theory of fuzzy analyticnetwork process; the other is an evaluation system of large engineering project is structured.Firstly, the fuzzy analytic network process, a new evaluation method is proposed based onprevious literature, Furtermore, based on the theory of the analysis hierarchy process andthe theory of analytic network process, the fuzzy theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The analytic network process, developed in dependment and feedback, is a generalization ofthe analysis hierarchy process. The fuzzy analytic network process, developed in uncertaintyand vagueness, is a generalization of the analytic network process. Secondly, the analyticframework for the project risk evaluation system is proposed based pervious literature thatstudied on project risk evaluation, Furthermore, based on the characters of the largeengineering project, key risk factors identification and risk evaluation, with qualitativeand quantitative research methods. Lastly, the key problem in risk control is analysed basedon the results mentioned above.
At the end of the dissertation, the risk of a certain large-sized engineering projet isanalysed, and show that the method is practical and scientific.
论文包含三个内容：首先在现有项目风险评价方法的基础上，根据层次分析法、网络分析法、以及模糊综合评判理论，提出一种新的评价方法—模糊网络分析法。网络分析法是层次分析法在依赖和反馈问题中的延伸，是一种能用来处理具有依赖和反馈关系的复杂决策问题的定量化方法。模糊网络分析法是网络分析法在不确定性和含糊性问题中的延伸，是一种能处理不确定性和含糊性的复杂问题的定量化方法。网络分析法的决策原理与层次分析法的决策原理基本相同，不同的是前者建立的是网络结构模型，而后者建立的层次结构模型。模糊网络分析法的决策原理是基于模糊综合评判决策思想，在权重的确定上，用三角模糊数来表示两两判断矩阵，基于网络分析法来构造模糊超矩阵。由于模糊网络结构模型要远比层次结构模型复杂，因此在权重合成方面，模糊网络分析法应用到了更加高深的数学知识，论文对其中比较重要的概念超矩阵的应用和分析做了比较深入的研究。
其次在现有项目风险评价研究的基础上，进一步构建了大型工程项目风险评价体系，并结合大型工程项目风险的特征，在该风险评价体系的框架指导下，运用定性与定量相结合，理论分析与应用研究相结合的方法，从大型工程项目风险特征分析、风险因素的识别、风险评价三个方面，层层深入地构建了大型工程项目风险评价模型，并对以上述研究结果为依据对风险评价的关键问题进行了分析。通过对文献的研究和问卷，根据风险指标体系的构建原则，以大型工程项目中19个关键的风险因素为对象，运用系统分析的新方法—模糊网络分析法，计算和推导出了各风险因素的权重，得出项目风险的评估级别。评价结果也为风险调控提供了一定的依据。
最后在理论研究的基础上，以某一大型工程项目为案例，运用模糊网络分析法进行了应用研究，证明了方法的科学性和有效性。
Large engineering project can be defined as complex and open systems, which arelargely invested, long cyclic, complex structure and involved a large number factors.
The dissertation discussed the following points: One is the theory of fuzzy analyticnetwork process; the other is an evaluation system of large engineering project is structured.Firstly, the fuzzy analytic network process, a new evaluation method is proposed based onprevious literature, Furtermore, based on the theory of the analysis hierarchy process andthe theory of analytic network process, the fuzzy theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The analytic network process, developed in dependment and feedback, is a generalization ofthe analysis hierarchy process. The fuzzy analytic network process, developed in uncertaintyand vagueness, is a generalization of the analytic network process. Secondly, the analyticframework for the project risk evaluation system is proposed based pervious literature thatstudied on project risk evaluation, Furthermore, based on the characters of the largeengineering project, key risk factors identification and risk evaluation, with qualitativeand quantitative research methods. Lastly, the key problem in risk control is analysed basedon the results mentioned above.
At the end of the dissertation, the risk of a certain large-sized engineering projet isanalysed, and show that the method is practical and scientific.
引文
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