大型商业地产开发项目风险管理研究
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摘要
大型商业地产项目风险管理是一个十分具有挑战性的课题,在人员安排、物资调配以及资金周转等方面都具有极其复杂的特征,一旦管理者不能认清项目存在的问题并及时采取措施予以解决,项目就可能遭受失败。目前,我国商业地产开发项目上处于发展的初级阶段,项目计划性差、恶性竞争的存在以及缺乏项目风险管理意识等问题的存在依然很大程度上阻碍了项目管理的完善。
本文针对目前商业地产市场和政策环境以及大型商业地产开发项目风险管理的现状,结合济南“七里坡”商业地产开发项目,对大型商业地产开发项目风险管理问题进行了研究。首先对大型商业地产开发项目风险管理进行了总体的概括,对论文研究的背景、目的及其意义做了简单的阐述。由项目风险管理进而深入到大型商业地产开发项目管理的风险识别、风险评价和风险应对方面。结合济南“七里坡”商业地产开发项目这一案例,较系统的总结了项目风险管理过程中外部风险、全员风险、全过程风险以及市场风险的识别过程,并利用定性和定量分析相结合的方法对各种风险进行评价,根据评价结果针对性的提出了应对措施和可行建议。
本文研究的目的,一是能对当前国内商业地产开发项目各个阶段的全部风险提供风险识别、度量和评价方法；二是通过此次论文研究的成果能够为这类项目的风险管理提出有效可行的应对措施,以便有效的降低大型商业地产项目存在的风险因素；三是以本论文研究内容为基础,今后对商业地产开发项目全面的风险管理进行更深一步研究,进而对本课题能有更加深入的探讨和研究。
The large-scale commercial real estate project risk is a very challenging topic, what has extremely complicated characteristics in the aspects such as personnel arrangement, goods and materials allocating and turnover of capital and so on. Once the superintendents can't clearly recognize the question of the project,the project will possibly suffer the defeat. At present, commercial estate developmental item is in the initial stage in our country, the project planed difference. The project management consummation is still in a great extent hindered by the bad planning of the project, the existence of pernicious competition as well as the lack of consciousness of project risk management.
This article, which aims at the present commercial real estate market and policy environment as well as the present situation of the property development project risk management, studies the question of the commercial real estate developmental item comprehensive risk management, with the commercial real estate developmental item named "Qi li po" in Jinan. In the beginning the article gives an overall summary to the large-scale commercial real estate development project risk management, and makes a simple elaboration to the background, the goal and the significance of the paper research. Then it goes deep into the risk recognition, appraisal and deals of the large-scale commercial real estate developmental item management. With the example of "Qi li po" in Jinan, it systematically summarizes the recognition process of the exterior risk, the whole staff risk, the entire process risk as well as market risk in commercial real estate developmental item. In addition it uses the method what is the combine of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to evaluate each kind of risk, and then points proposed the counter measures and the feasible suggestion according to the measure results.
This article's purpose is to provide the risk recognition, the measure and the assessment method to the current internal commerce real estate developmental item each stage complete risk, and to provide the effective feasible counter measures through this paper research's achievement for this kind of project risk management, so that effective reduces the big-scale work project existence the risk factor. In addition, it will carry on deeper one step to the commercial real estate developmental item comprehensive risk management the research, then can have a more thorough discussion and the research to this topic.
本文针对目前商业地产市场和政策环境以及大型商业地产开发项目风险管理的现状,结合济南“七里坡”商业地产开发项目,对大型商业地产开发项目风险管理问题进行了研究。首先对大型商业地产开发项目风险管理进行了总体的概括,对论文研究的背景、目的及其意义做了简单的阐述。由项目风险管理进而深入到大型商业地产开发项目管理的风险识别、风险评价和风险应对方面。结合济南“七里坡”商业地产开发项目这一案例,较系统的总结了项目风险管理过程中外部风险、全员风险、全过程风险以及市场风险的识别过程,并利用定性和定量分析相结合的方法对各种风险进行评价,根据评价结果针对性的提出了应对措施和可行建议。
本文研究的目的,一是能对当前国内商业地产开发项目各个阶段的全部风险提供风险识别、度量和评价方法；二是通过此次论文研究的成果能够为这类项目的风险管理提出有效可行的应对措施,以便有效的降低大型商业地产项目存在的风险因素；三是以本论文研究内容为基础,今后对商业地产开发项目全面的风险管理进行更深一步研究,进而对本课题能有更加深入的探讨和研究。
The large-scale commercial real estate project risk is a very challenging topic, what has extremely complicated characteristics in the aspects such as personnel arrangement, goods and materials allocating and turnover of capital and so on. Once the superintendents can't clearly recognize the question of the project,the project will possibly suffer the defeat. At present, commercial estate developmental item is in the initial stage in our country, the project planed difference. The project management consummation is still in a great extent hindered by the bad planning of the project, the existence of pernicious competition as well as the lack of consciousness of project risk management.
This article, which aims at the present commercial real estate market and policy environment as well as the present situation of the property development project risk management, studies the question of the commercial real estate developmental item comprehensive risk management, with the commercial real estate developmental item named "Qi li po" in Jinan. In the beginning the article gives an overall summary to the large-scale commercial real estate development project risk management, and makes a simple elaboration to the background, the goal and the significance of the paper research. Then it goes deep into the risk recognition, appraisal and deals of the large-scale commercial real estate developmental item management. With the example of "Qi li po" in Jinan, it systematically summarizes the recognition process of the exterior risk, the whole staff risk, the entire process risk as well as market risk in commercial real estate developmental item. In addition it uses the method what is the combine of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to evaluate each kind of risk, and then points proposed the counter measures and the feasible suggestion according to the measure results.
This article's purpose is to provide the risk recognition, the measure and the assessment method to the current internal commerce real estate developmental item each stage complete risk, and to provide the effective feasible counter measures through this paper research's achievement for this kind of project risk management, so that effective reduces the big-scale work project existence the risk factor. In addition, it will carry on deeper one step to the commercial real estate developmental item comprehensive risk management the research, then can have a more thorough discussion and the research to this topic.
引文
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[40]芮光雨等.项目决策分析与评价[M].北京：中国计划出版社,2003.145-148
[41]S.Apeland, T. Aven. Quantifying uncertainty under a predictive epistemic approach to risk analysis[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2002,75(3):30-44
[42]沈建明.项目风险管理[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2004.124-126
[43]史哲元.浅论连锁店的选址问题[J].经济问题,1998,(6)：45-46
[44]S.Teve, J.Simister. Usage and Benefit of Project Risk Analysis and Managemen[J]. Project Management,1994, (12):76-79
[45]孙成双.建设项目风险分析及其专家系统研究[M].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2002.65-67
[46]万振琴.影响零售商业选址决策的人口因素分析[J].市场与人口分析,1997,(4)：67-69
[47]王永银等.工程咨询概论[M].北京：中国计划出版社,2003.67-69
[48]王增全.业主的风险管理[J].经济师,2001,5(2)：64-68
[49]武永祥.房地产投资分析[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,1997.345-347
[50]徐伟.土木工程项目管理[M].上海：同济大学出版社,2000.78-80
[51]杨川.大城市商业地产发展与问题解析[J].城市,2005,(4)：256-258
[52]杨海英.风险管理与保险原理[M].北京：北京航空航天大学出版社,1999.56-60
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[2]陈伟坷,黄艳敏.工程风险与工程保险[M].天津：天津大学出版社,2005.37-38
[3]陈岩.公路工程项目风险管理研究[D].东北大学硕士学位论文,2006.66-71
[4]邓铁军,仇一颗.工程风险管理[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.123-125
[5]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2005.33-34
[6]杜端甫,邱菀华.中国大型工程管理[M].武汉：华中理工大学出版社,1993.66-78
[7]方东平.项目承包风险分析[J].建筑经济,2002,(8)：12-13
[8]高辉.国外零售商店选址技巧和程序分析[J].商业经济文荟,2004,(2)：367-368
[9]高辉,李慧民.工程质量风险的模糊层次分析[J].西北建筑工程学院学报(自然科学版),2002,(3)：76-77
[10]Gort, Michael, Klepper, Steven. Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovation[J]. The Economic Journal,1982, (92):562-583
[11]郭捷著,工程项目风险分析与BT模式风险管理实证研究[D].天津大学博士学位论文,2004.87-89
[12]H.Steyn. Project management applications of the theory of constraints beyond critical chains scheduling[J]. International Journal of Project Management,2002, (20):33
[13]James.P.Lewis. The Project Manager's Desk Reference[D].2002.34-41
[14]Jay Diamond, Gerald Pintel. Retailing[J]. Prentice Hill,1996, (5):25-27
[15]J.Bowers. Data for Project risk analysis [J]. Project Management,1994,1(21):16
[16]J. H. M. Tah, V. Carr. Towards a framework for project risk knowledge management in the construction supply chain[D].2001.33
[17]姜青舫,陈方正.风险度量原理[M].上海：同济大学出版社,2000.89-92
[18]Jones, Ken George. Analyzing the retail environment [J]. Nelson Canada,1993, (4):268-269
[19]Klepper, Steven, Graddy, Elizabeth. The Evolution of New Industries and the Determinants of Market Structure[J]. RAMP Journal of Economics,1990, (21):27-44
[20]Klepper, Steven. Entry, Exit, Growth and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle[J]. American Economic Review,1996, (86):562-583
[21]雷胜强.国际工程风险管理与保险[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,1996.245-247
[22]李定荣,李开孟.建设项目可行性研究[M].天津：天津大学出版社,1995.134-136
[23]李洪平,冯霞.企业风险与风险管理[M].成都：成都科技大学出版社,1993.12-15
[24]李舒亮.建设项目的风险管理效率研究[M].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学出版社,2006.56-58
[25]李晓宇.工程项目风险评价体系研究[D].硕士论文,2003.46-48
[26]李宇松.建设工程项目风险管理研究与实践[D].硕士论文,2001.108-111
[27]林娴.基于熵度量法的基坑工程项目风险管理研究[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2006.87-90
[28]刘慧霞.建筑工程项目风险评估与施工安全成本分析[D].硕士论文,2006.79-82
[29]刘霞.风险决策过程[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1998.25-28
[30]刘众.投资项目风险估测和风险分析[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2002.52-55
[31]M-A-Tomas. The Difficulty in Defining Sustainability[J]. In J. Darrnstadter Ed.Global Development,2000, (4):34-36
[32]马丁·冯,彼得·杨.公共部门风险管理[M].天津：天津大学出版社,2003.56-58
[33]梅启智.减灾与风险管理[J].科技导报,1993,(4)：56-59
[34]M. Reedit. The Multiple Dimensions of sustainable Development[J]. Geography,1991, (5):78
[35]P.Dasgupta. Optimal Development and the Idea of Net National Product[J]. The Economies of sustainable Development University Press,1995, (8):12-16
[36]Pearce D.W, Atkinson G.. Are National Economies Sustainable[J]. Working Paper University College London,1992, (9):66
[37]Porter. The Competitive Advantage of Nations[J]. New York the Free Press,1990, (3): 55-57
[38]邱菀华.现代项目风险管理方法与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,2003.89-96
[39]Ron Hanty, James Reardon. Retail Management J]. The McGraw-Hill Companies, 1997,14(2):107-110
[40]芮光雨等.项目决策分析与评价[M].北京：中国计划出版社,2003.145-148
[41]S.Apeland, T. Aven. Quantifying uncertainty under a predictive epistemic approach to risk analysis[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2002,75(3):30-44
[42]沈建明.项目风险管理[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2004.124-126
[43]史哲元.浅论连锁店的选址问题[J].经济问题,1998,(6)：45-46
[44]S.Teve, J.Simister. Usage and Benefit of Project Risk Analysis and Managemen[J]. Project Management,1994, (12):76-79
[45]孙成双.建设项目风险分析及其专家系统研究[M].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2002.65-67
[46]万振琴.影响零售商业选址决策的人口因素分析[J].市场与人口分析,1997,(4)：67-69
[47]王永银等.工程咨询概论[M].北京：中国计划出版社,2003.67-69
[48]王增全.业主的风险管理[J].经济师,2001,5(2)：64-68
[49]武永祥.房地产投资分析[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,1997.345-347
[50]徐伟.土木工程项目管理[M].上海：同济大学出版社,2000.78-80
[51]杨川.大城市商业地产发展与问题解析[J].城市,2005,(4)：256-258
[52]杨海英.风险管理与保险原理[M].北京：北京航空航天大学出版社,1999.56-60
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