水利水电工程网络进度计划辅助生成理论与方法研究
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摘要
对于大型复杂水利水电工程，由于进度计划的编制涉及众多方面，要编制一个可靠的网络进度计划是非常耗费时间和精力的。本文针对网络进度计划编制过程中存在的不足，围绕大型水利水电工程网络进度计划的生成、分析、评价及审阅等关键技术问题开展深入系统研究，所取得的成果对于提高水利水电工程网络进度计划编制的可靠性、降低计划编制人员的工作强度具有重要意义。主要研究内容包括：
（1）基于案例、模板的进度计划辅助生成理论和方法研究
针对进度计划编制过程中经验利用不充分、编制效率及准确性不高等问题，对基于案例和模板的进度计划辅助生成方法进行研究，结合网络进度计划辅助生成国内外研究现状以及实际工程网络进度计划编制过程，研究了案例、模板的检索方法、进度计划组合生成方法以及进度计划辅助修改方法和多途径活动资源配置方法。
（2）针对网络计划存在多条关键路径时组合压缩方案形成问题，研究简捷和易于编程实现的网络进度计划工期费用优化方法
基于工期压缩基本原理和线性规划方法，研究网络进度计划工期、费用优化的组合筛选算法，通过不同关键线路上工作间的有序组合和相应的筛选原则来确定组合压缩方案，解决了存在多条关键路径网络进度计划组合压缩方案形成问题。
（3）通过对工程进度计划中风险因素、进度计划资源配置、管理者风险态度、风险应对措施之间的关系分析，研究更为贴合实际的网络进度计划分析、评价方法
结合实际工程施工管理和控制过程，通过对影响施工进度过程风险因素特征、进度计划资源配置特征、管理者对风险的态度以及应对措施之间相互作用的研究和分析，提出网络进度计划各项活动的工期的可控性指标，针对风险因素发生时间不同，风险应对措施的效果不同，研究基于工期可控性的网络进度计划辅助分析理论与方法并建立基于施工影响因素的蒙特卡洛随机仿真模型。
（4）水利水电工程网络进度计划辅助生成、分析、评价和审阅系统及其集成问题研究
基于以上理论和方法研究，综合运用案例推理、专家系统、数据库技术、面向对象方法、计算机仿真以及计算可视化等，结合水利水电工程网络进度计划编制的实际需求和特点，研究大型水利水电工程网络进度计划辅助生成、分析、评价系统的集成方法。
通过以上研究，取得的研究成果包括：
（1）提出基于案例、模板的网络进度计划辅助生成方法，该方法充分利用基于水利水电工程特征的推理、检索方法；
（2）基于线性规划原理，提出一种易于编程实现的网络进度计划工期压缩算法-组合筛选法，通过与割集法比较，证明了该方法的正确性和合理性；
（3）提出活动工期可控性指标以及基于工期可控性的网络进度计划随机模拟分析和评价方法；
（4）研发大型水利水电工程网络进度计划综合集成系统-SHAPS，该系统集成了网络进度计划辅助生成、分析、评价和审阅等功能。
As schedule compilation involves many aspects，it is time consuming and effortto draw up a reliable network for large-scale complex hydraulic and hydropowerengineering. Aiming at the insufficiency during the preparation of network schedule,centered on the key technical issues in the network generation, analysis, evaluationand review in large-scale hydraulic and hydropower engineering, this paper carriedout in-depth research, the results obtained is of great significance for improving thereliability of hydraulic and hydropower project network schedule compilation,reducing the work intensity of the planning staff. The main research contents are asfollows:
(1)Research on theory and methods on case-based and template-basedschedule assistant generation.
For problems as inadequate experience utilization, the efficiency and accuracy isnot high, this paper conducted research on case-based and template-based scheduleassistant generation method, combined research status of network schedule assistedgeneration and actual progress of the project network planning process, functions suchthat retrieve case or template, combined schedule generation, assistant modificationand multiple ways of activity resource allocation are studied.
(2)As problems that the formalization of combination compression schemeswhen there are multiple critical paths, a forthright and easy to programmingnetwork schedule duration cost optimization method is researched.
Based on the basic principles in Schedule compression and linear programmingmethods, a combination and selection method(CSM) for network schedule time-costoptimization is presented, when there are many critical paths in a network schedule,CSM can combine the activities orderly in different critical paths, and select thequalified ones. Resolve problems which the formalization the combinationcompression schemes when there have multiple critical paths.
(3)Through analysis of relationships among risk factors in the progress ofthe project plan, resource allocation, the managers’ attitude towards risks andrisk response measures, more realistic network schedule analysis and evaluationmethods are researched.
Centered on the realistic process of project management and control, throughstudy and analysis of relationships among risk factors in the progress of the project plan, resource allocation, the managers’ attitude towards risks and risk responsemeasures, the controllability indicator of the activity duration of the network scheduleis presented, as the effects of countermeasures are different along with the differentoccurr time of risks, assistant analysis method based on duration controllability ofnetwork schedule was presented, and Monte Carlo simulation model based onconstruction influence factors is built.
(4)Research on integrated network assistant generation, analysis, evaluationand review system in hydraulic and hydropower project.
Based on the above theory and methods, utilizing case-based reasoning, expertsystems, database technology, object-oriented technology, computer simulation andvisualization technology, with actual demands and characteristics in engineeringpractice, integrated network assistant generation, analysis, evaluation and reviewsystem in hydraulic and hydropower project is proposed.
Through the above study, the research achievements are as follows:
(1) Case-based and template-based schedule assistant generation method arepresented, the method makes full use of the characteristics based reasoning andretrieval method of hydraulic and hydropower project.
(2) Combination and Selection method for network Schedule time-costoptimization is presented based on the Linear-Programming, through the comparisonof cut-set method, the correctness and rationality of the method is proved.
(3) The controllability indicator of the activity duration of the network schedule isproposed, and simulation evaluation method based on duration controllability ofnetwork schedule is presented.
(4) Researched and developed synthetic integrated network schedule system forlarge-scale hydraulic and hydropower project, the system integrates functions thatnetwork schedule auxiliary generation, analysis, evaluation and review.
（1）基于案例、模板的进度计划辅助生成理论和方法研究
针对进度计划编制过程中经验利用不充分、编制效率及准确性不高等问题，对基于案例和模板的进度计划辅助生成方法进行研究，结合网络进度计划辅助生成国内外研究现状以及实际工程网络进度计划编制过程，研究了案例、模板的检索方法、进度计划组合生成方法以及进度计划辅助修改方法和多途径活动资源配置方法。
（2）针对网络计划存在多条关键路径时组合压缩方案形成问题，研究简捷和易于编程实现的网络进度计划工期费用优化方法
基于工期压缩基本原理和线性规划方法，研究网络进度计划工期、费用优化的组合筛选算法，通过不同关键线路上工作间的有序组合和相应的筛选原则来确定组合压缩方案，解决了存在多条关键路径网络进度计划组合压缩方案形成问题。
（3）通过对工程进度计划中风险因素、进度计划资源配置、管理者风险态度、风险应对措施之间的关系分析，研究更为贴合实际的网络进度计划分析、评价方法
结合实际工程施工管理和控制过程，通过对影响施工进度过程风险因素特征、进度计划资源配置特征、管理者对风险的态度以及应对措施之间相互作用的研究和分析，提出网络进度计划各项活动的工期的可控性指标，针对风险因素发生时间不同，风险应对措施的效果不同，研究基于工期可控性的网络进度计划辅助分析理论与方法并建立基于施工影响因素的蒙特卡洛随机仿真模型。
（4）水利水电工程网络进度计划辅助生成、分析、评价和审阅系统及其集成问题研究
基于以上理论和方法研究，综合运用案例推理、专家系统、数据库技术、面向对象方法、计算机仿真以及计算可视化等，结合水利水电工程网络进度计划编制的实际需求和特点，研究大型水利水电工程网络进度计划辅助生成、分析、评价系统的集成方法。
通过以上研究，取得的研究成果包括：
（1）提出基于案例、模板的网络进度计划辅助生成方法，该方法充分利用基于水利水电工程特征的推理、检索方法；
（2）基于线性规划原理，提出一种易于编程实现的网络进度计划工期压缩算法-组合筛选法，通过与割集法比较，证明了该方法的正确性和合理性；
（3）提出活动工期可控性指标以及基于工期可控性的网络进度计划随机模拟分析和评价方法；
（4）研发大型水利水电工程网络进度计划综合集成系统-SHAPS，该系统集成了网络进度计划辅助生成、分析、评价和审阅等功能。
As schedule compilation involves many aspects，it is time consuming and effortto draw up a reliable network for large-scale complex hydraulic and hydropowerengineering. Aiming at the insufficiency during the preparation of network schedule,centered on the key technical issues in the network generation, analysis, evaluationand review in large-scale hydraulic and hydropower engineering, this paper carriedout in-depth research, the results obtained is of great significance for improving thereliability of hydraulic and hydropower project network schedule compilation,reducing the work intensity of the planning staff. The main research contents are asfollows:
(1)Research on theory and methods on case-based and template-basedschedule assistant generation.
For problems as inadequate experience utilization, the efficiency and accuracy isnot high, this paper conducted research on case-based and template-based scheduleassistant generation method, combined research status of network schedule assistedgeneration and actual progress of the project network planning process, functions suchthat retrieve case or template, combined schedule generation, assistant modificationand multiple ways of activity resource allocation are studied.
(2)As problems that the formalization of combination compression schemeswhen there are multiple critical paths, a forthright and easy to programmingnetwork schedule duration cost optimization method is researched.
Based on the basic principles in Schedule compression and linear programmingmethods, a combination and selection method(CSM) for network schedule time-costoptimization is presented, when there are many critical paths in a network schedule,CSM can combine the activities orderly in different critical paths, and select thequalified ones. Resolve problems which the formalization the combinationcompression schemes when there have multiple critical paths.
(3)Through analysis of relationships among risk factors in the progress ofthe project plan, resource allocation, the managers’ attitude towards risks andrisk response measures, more realistic network schedule analysis and evaluationmethods are researched.
Centered on the realistic process of project management and control, throughstudy and analysis of relationships among risk factors in the progress of the project plan, resource allocation, the managers’ attitude towards risks and risk responsemeasures, the controllability indicator of the activity duration of the network scheduleis presented, as the effects of countermeasures are different along with the differentoccurr time of risks, assistant analysis method based on duration controllability ofnetwork schedule was presented, and Monte Carlo simulation model based onconstruction influence factors is built.
(4)Research on integrated network assistant generation, analysis, evaluationand review system in hydraulic and hydropower project.
Based on the above theory and methods, utilizing case-based reasoning, expertsystems, database technology, object-oriented technology, computer simulation andvisualization technology, with actual demands and characteristics in engineeringpractice, integrated network assistant generation, analysis, evaluation and reviewsystem in hydraulic and hydropower project is proposed.
Through the above study, the research achievements are as follows:
(1) Case-based and template-based schedule assistant generation method arepresented, the method makes full use of the characteristics based reasoning andretrieval method of hydraulic and hydropower project.
(2) Combination and Selection method for network Schedule time-costoptimization is presented based on the Linear-Programming, through the comparisonof cut-set method, the correctness and rationality of the method is proved.
(3) The controllability indicator of the activity duration of the network schedule isproposed, and simulation evaluation method based on duration controllability ofnetwork schedule is presented.
(4) Researched and developed synthetic integrated network schedule system forlarge-scale hydraulic and hydropower project, the system integrates functions thatnetwork schedule auxiliary generation, analysis, evaluation and review.
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