中外创业板的比较研究
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摘要
2009年10月23日我国创业板的成立,10月30日首批28家企业上市。这对解决我国中小企业的融资难问题、完善我国资本市场体系、推动我国经济结构改革有重大意义。
纵观海外创业板的发展历程,从19世纪60年代到现在,先后成立过75家创业板,关闭的达到34家,关闭率超过了35%。存活下来的创业板市场中,成功的只有NASDAQ、KOSDAQ等寥寥几家,大部分发展缓慢。那么海外创业板发展为什么会失败,成功的创业板的经验是什么?我国经过十年酝酿之后建立了创业板,其推出后市场的表现如何,是否稳健,这些问题是本文研究的主要内容。
截止到2011年3月底,我国创业板市场上市公司数量达到196家,这196家上市公司不仅表现出高成长性,还表现出高市盈率,所以我们要不仅要关注创业板的成长性,还有关注它的风险性。本文运用了历史比较法,对海外创业板的发展状况包括存活时间、市场表现上进行了对比,发现成功的创业板较少,关闭率较高。对我国创业板的整体状况进行了描述,包括我国创业板的制度设计,发现我国创业板制度设计相对海外来说较严格,并运用描述统计法对市场表现和中小板、主板进行了对比研究,发现我国创业板目前总体表现不错,上市企业具有高成长性。
本文还对海外主要创业板的成败经验进行了案例分析。选取了欧美的成功代表NASDAQ和亚洲成功的代表KOSDAQ,以及失败的典型代表德国新市场作为案例,从它们的市场表现,制度设计,及宏观经济背景等方面,运用了大量的图表进行分析对比,发现了NASDAQ、KOSDAQ市场成功的一些关键性因素,以及德国新市场失败的经验启示。以往对海外创业板的研究都是针对表面的制度设计,没有深入到创业板市场内部,本文不但对全球状况进行了描述,还运用案例分析法对我国创业板、中小板、海外的NASDAQ、KOSDAQ为主体,进行了制度设计的比较和市场表现的对比,这也是本文的一个创新之处。
我国创业板的推出时机和建设状况是否较好,本文进一步深入的从市场内部进行了研究,选取波动性作为研究指标,运用金融市场波动性理论来进行了实证分析。实证模型为ARMA(m, n)-EGARCH(p, q)-M-GED模型,选取的代表性指标为日收益率的对数,并选取NASDQ、KOSDAQ、我国的中小企业板和创业板的波动性进行了对比研究。深入到市场内部,从波动性上来进行对比,以探寻创业板发展的成功经验,这也是本文的第三个创新之处。
结果表明NASDAQ建设最为完善,对信息的接受能力和抗冲击能力都很强,在许多方面都超过了其他国家的主板市场建设。KOSDAQ经历过一段时间的低迷之后,重新走向复苏,市值上也曾超过本国主板市场,在全球创业板的表现中仅次于NASDAQ,波动性稍微高于NASDAQ。而我国中小板的波动性程度次于NASDAQ,但是和KOSDAQ相差不大,这说明我国二板市场的建设程度和发展水平也越来越好,只是规模水平和容量较NASDAQ和KOSDAQ差了许多。而我国创业板由于推出较晚,仅仅从实证分析结果来看,波动性和NASDAQ差不多,甚至小于我国的中小板块和KOSDAQ市场,但由于成立时间较晚,所以市场建设完善程度还有待观察。
最后对我国创业板推出时机的意义进行了描述性分析。这也是本文的一个创新之处。
最后本文对我国创业板的建设提出了政策性建议,这也是本文的研究目的。认为发展我国创业板,需要注意的地方是监管制度要严格,保证我国创业板上市公司质量；创业板要具有独立性,只有具有独立性才是正确的选择；多发展成熟的机构投资者,机构投资者可以稳定市场；上市企业要具有多元化的行业结构,高成性的行业都应给予支持；制度设计要根据国情进行,避免简单的模仿。我国在二板市场建设上取得了丰富的经验,对国外的创业板成功吸取经验,并且我国经济发展迅速,上市资源丰富,坚信我国创业板会取得好的发展。
After the establishment of Chinext in October 23rd,2009, the first 28 companies were listed on October 30. This had a great significance in solving the problem of financing, improving our country's capital market system, and promoting Chinese economic structural reform.
Throughout the development of the GEM overseas, since 1960s, there has set up over 75 GEM, but also 34 GEM have been closed, closing rate have been over 35%. In the survived Growth Enterprise Market, only NASDAQ, KOSDAQ and a few succeed, most of them developed slowly. Why some overseas GEM failed? What are the experiences of successful GEM? After a decade of gestation, China has established the Chinext, so the main contents of this paper. Focus on these problems such as how is the performance of the market, is it solid or not?
In this paper, the author using the historical comparative way try to compare the development of the overseas GEM in the aspects of the survival time, the market performance, and found a small number of GEM succeed, which closing rate is high. The author also describe Chinext in all sides, including the design of the Chinext system and found that the design of the Chinext system is more stringent comparing with overseas, and using descriptive statistics to compare the market performance of Chinext, the small and medium board, main board, found that the overall performance of the Chinext is currently good, listed companies has a high growth.
By the end of March 2011, there had been 196 companies listed in the China's Growth Enterprise Market, which not only have high-growth, but also have high price-earnings ratio, so we have to pay attention to both the growth of the GEM and its risks.The paper also made a case study on the success and failure experience of major overseas GEM. The author select NASDAQ in Europe and KOSDAQ in Asia as typical successful representatives and German neur market as a failure case, making a large number of chart analysis and comparison to their market performance, system design, and macroeconomic background. We found some key success factors of the NASDAQ, KOSDAQ market, and the neur market failure experience Enlightenment. Previous studies overseas GEM is only focusing in system design, which is in surface, no depth to the market within the GEM, this paper not only describes the global situation, but also using case analysis to compare the design of the system and market performance among the Chinext, small and medium board, NASDAQ, KOSDAQ, which is an innovation of this article.
Whether the launch time of the Chinext and the construction conditions are good, the author carry out a further in-depth study within the market, selecting the volatility as an indicator, using the theory of financial market volatility, making an empirical analysis. Empirical model is ARMA (m, n)-EGARCH (p, q)-M-GED, the representation of selected indicators is logarithmic rate of return, and select the volatility of NASDQ, KOSDAQ, the SME and Chinext as a comparative study. Deep into the internal market, make the volatility comparison to explore the successful experience of development of the GEM, which is the third innovation of this article.
The results show that the NASDAQ building is the most perfect, the acceptance of information and impact resistance are strong, it is better than the other countries' Main Board in many ways over the construction. KOSDAQ recovered after experiencing a downturn in a period of time, and its market value has been more than Korea's Main Board, its performance is lower than NASDAQ in the world GEM, but the volatility is slightly higher than the NASDAQ. The volatility of China small and medium board is inferior degree of NASDAQ, but a little different to KOSDAQ, which shows the construction of the second board market level and level of development is getting, but the level of scale and capacity is lower than the NASDAQ and KOSDAQ. As the launch of the Chinext is late, only from the empirical analysis results, the volatility is similar to NASDAQ, or even less than China's small and medium board and KOSDAQ market, but because of the establishment of late, so perfection of market construction remains to be seen.
Finally, the author made a descriptive analysis to the meaning of the introduction time of the Chinext. It is an innovation in this paper.
Finally, the author make policy recommendations in building Chinxet, which is the purpose of this paper. The development of the GEM, strict regulatory regime is the need to pay attention to ensure the quality of companies listed on Chinxet; Chinxet have to keep independence which is the only right choice; there also need more mature institutional investors which can stabilize the market; listed companies need have a diversified industry structure, high growth industry should be given support; system design should accord to national conditions, avoiding a simple imitation. China has made a wealth of experience in the Construction of the second board market, and also learn successful foreign experience in the GEM, and China has a rapid economic development, small and medium resource id rich, we believe that China will achieve good development of GEM.
纵观海外创业板的发展历程,从19世纪60年代到现在,先后成立过75家创业板,关闭的达到34家,关闭率超过了35%。存活下来的创业板市场中,成功的只有NASDAQ、KOSDAQ等寥寥几家,大部分发展缓慢。那么海外创业板发展为什么会失败,成功的创业板的经验是什么?我国经过十年酝酿之后建立了创业板,其推出后市场的表现如何,是否稳健,这些问题是本文研究的主要内容。
截止到2011年3月底,我国创业板市场上市公司数量达到196家,这196家上市公司不仅表现出高成长性,还表现出高市盈率,所以我们要不仅要关注创业板的成长性,还有关注它的风险性。本文运用了历史比较法,对海外创业板的发展状况包括存活时间、市场表现上进行了对比,发现成功的创业板较少,关闭率较高。对我国创业板的整体状况进行了描述,包括我国创业板的制度设计,发现我国创业板制度设计相对海外来说较严格,并运用描述统计法对市场表现和中小板、主板进行了对比研究,发现我国创业板目前总体表现不错,上市企业具有高成长性。
本文还对海外主要创业板的成败经验进行了案例分析。选取了欧美的成功代表NASDAQ和亚洲成功的代表KOSDAQ,以及失败的典型代表德国新市场作为案例,从它们的市场表现,制度设计,及宏观经济背景等方面,运用了大量的图表进行分析对比,发现了NASDAQ、KOSDAQ市场成功的一些关键性因素,以及德国新市场失败的经验启示。以往对海外创业板的研究都是针对表面的制度设计,没有深入到创业板市场内部,本文不但对全球状况进行了描述,还运用案例分析法对我国创业板、中小板、海外的NASDAQ、KOSDAQ为主体,进行了制度设计的比较和市场表现的对比,这也是本文的一个创新之处。
我国创业板的推出时机和建设状况是否较好,本文进一步深入的从市场内部进行了研究,选取波动性作为研究指标,运用金融市场波动性理论来进行了实证分析。实证模型为ARMA(m, n)-EGARCH(p, q)-M-GED模型,选取的代表性指标为日收益率的对数,并选取NASDQ、KOSDAQ、我国的中小企业板和创业板的波动性进行了对比研究。深入到市场内部,从波动性上来进行对比,以探寻创业板发展的成功经验,这也是本文的第三个创新之处。
结果表明NASDAQ建设最为完善,对信息的接受能力和抗冲击能力都很强,在许多方面都超过了其他国家的主板市场建设。KOSDAQ经历过一段时间的低迷之后,重新走向复苏,市值上也曾超过本国主板市场,在全球创业板的表现中仅次于NASDAQ,波动性稍微高于NASDAQ。而我国中小板的波动性程度次于NASDAQ,但是和KOSDAQ相差不大,这说明我国二板市场的建设程度和发展水平也越来越好,只是规模水平和容量较NASDAQ和KOSDAQ差了许多。而我国创业板由于推出较晚,仅仅从实证分析结果来看,波动性和NASDAQ差不多,甚至小于我国的中小板块和KOSDAQ市场,但由于成立时间较晚,所以市场建设完善程度还有待观察。
最后对我国创业板推出时机的意义进行了描述性分析。这也是本文的一个创新之处。
最后本文对我国创业板的建设提出了政策性建议,这也是本文的研究目的。认为发展我国创业板,需要注意的地方是监管制度要严格,保证我国创业板上市公司质量；创业板要具有独立性,只有具有独立性才是正确的选择；多发展成熟的机构投资者,机构投资者可以稳定市场；上市企业要具有多元化的行业结构,高成性的行业都应给予支持；制度设计要根据国情进行,避免简单的模仿。我国在二板市场建设上取得了丰富的经验,对国外的创业板成功吸取经验,并且我国经济发展迅速,上市资源丰富,坚信我国创业板会取得好的发展。
After the establishment of Chinext in October 23rd,2009, the first 28 companies were listed on October 30. This had a great significance in solving the problem of financing, improving our country's capital market system, and promoting Chinese economic structural reform.
Throughout the development of the GEM overseas, since 1960s, there has set up over 75 GEM, but also 34 GEM have been closed, closing rate have been over 35%. In the survived Growth Enterprise Market, only NASDAQ, KOSDAQ and a few succeed, most of them developed slowly. Why some overseas GEM failed? What are the experiences of successful GEM? After a decade of gestation, China has established the Chinext, so the main contents of this paper. Focus on these problems such as how is the performance of the market, is it solid or not?
In this paper, the author using the historical comparative way try to compare the development of the overseas GEM in the aspects of the survival time, the market performance, and found a small number of GEM succeed, which closing rate is high. The author also describe Chinext in all sides, including the design of the Chinext system and found that the design of the Chinext system is more stringent comparing with overseas, and using descriptive statistics to compare the market performance of Chinext, the small and medium board, main board, found that the overall performance of the Chinext is currently good, listed companies has a high growth.
By the end of March 2011, there had been 196 companies listed in the China's Growth Enterprise Market, which not only have high-growth, but also have high price-earnings ratio, so we have to pay attention to both the growth of the GEM and its risks.The paper also made a case study on the success and failure experience of major overseas GEM. The author select NASDAQ in Europe and KOSDAQ in Asia as typical successful representatives and German neur market as a failure case, making a large number of chart analysis and comparison to their market performance, system design, and macroeconomic background. We found some key success factors of the NASDAQ, KOSDAQ market, and the neur market failure experience Enlightenment. Previous studies overseas GEM is only focusing in system design, which is in surface, no depth to the market within the GEM, this paper not only describes the global situation, but also using case analysis to compare the design of the system and market performance among the Chinext, small and medium board, NASDAQ, KOSDAQ, which is an innovation of this article.
Whether the launch time of the Chinext and the construction conditions are good, the author carry out a further in-depth study within the market, selecting the volatility as an indicator, using the theory of financial market volatility, making an empirical analysis. Empirical model is ARMA (m, n)-EGARCH (p, q)-M-GED, the representation of selected indicators is logarithmic rate of return, and select the volatility of NASDQ, KOSDAQ, the SME and Chinext as a comparative study. Deep into the internal market, make the volatility comparison to explore the successful experience of development of the GEM, which is the third innovation of this article.
The results show that the NASDAQ building is the most perfect, the acceptance of information and impact resistance are strong, it is better than the other countries' Main Board in many ways over the construction. KOSDAQ recovered after experiencing a downturn in a period of time, and its market value has been more than Korea's Main Board, its performance is lower than NASDAQ in the world GEM, but the volatility is slightly higher than the NASDAQ. The volatility of China small and medium board is inferior degree of NASDAQ, but a little different to KOSDAQ, which shows the construction of the second board market level and level of development is getting, but the level of scale and capacity is lower than the NASDAQ and KOSDAQ. As the launch of the Chinext is late, only from the empirical analysis results, the volatility is similar to NASDAQ, or even less than China's small and medium board and KOSDAQ market, but because of the establishment of late, so perfection of market construction remains to be seen.
Finally, the author made a descriptive analysis to the meaning of the introduction time of the Chinext. It is an innovation in this paper.
Finally, the author make policy recommendations in building Chinxet, which is the purpose of this paper. The development of the GEM, strict regulatory regime is the need to pay attention to ensure the quality of companies listed on Chinxet; Chinxet have to keep independence which is the only right choice; there also need more mature institutional investors which can stabilize the market; listed companies need have a diversified industry structure, high growth industry should be given support; system design should accord to national conditions, avoiding a simple imitation. China has made a wealth of experience in the Construction of the second board market, and also learn successful foreign experience in the GEM, and China has a rapid economic development, small and medium resource id rich, we believe that China will achieve good development of GEM.
引文
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[6]引自纳斯达克官网http://ww.nasdaq.net/publicpages/listingstandards.aspx
[7]由于2004-2006只有新上市公司数据,没有退市数据,所以24年上市数量包含这三年,退市数量不包含这三年。
[8]引自MBA智库百科http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/
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[14]NASDAQ和KOSDAQ的上市标准在第四章中均有涉及,这里不再赘述。
[15]IPO溢价率=(P-Pe),P是新股上市首日收盘价,Pe为新股发行价格
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