基于突变理论的近岸海域环境灾害风险评价
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摘要
近年来,近岸海域环境污染成为人类急需解决的一个大问题。
本文基于突变理论的多准则评价方法,提出了包括水体富营养化、重金属污染和有机污染三类污染灾害的近岸海域环境污染灾害评价模型。构建了包括水化学、水物理、水生物、表层沉积物及水体中的重金属和有机污染物7个中间层指标,20个底层指标的评价指标体系。
利用该模型对大连湾2001和2006年的环境灾害性风险进行了评价。评价结果表明,2001年大连湾近岸海域环境灾害性总体评价指标低于三类水质标准,具备发生水体富营养化灾害和难降解有机物污染灾害的风险;2006年,大连湾近岸海域灾害性总体评价指标达到二类水质标准,但是仍然具备发生水体富营养化灾害的风险。上述结果与历史资料相一致。
结合营口近岸海域实际情况,选取水体富营养化灾害性评价指标、难降解有机污染物灾害性评价指标、重金属污染物灾害性三个评价指标。评价了1998年至2007年营口近岸海域海区的环境灾害性风险。评价结果显示为,2004年以前,营口海域均有发生水体富营养化灾害的风险,局部海域有发生难降解有机物灾害的风险,发生重金属灾害的可能性极小,2005年以后,营口近岸海域发生各类环境灾害的风险都有所降低,但是与其他类型灾害相比,水体富营养化灾害仍然是营口海域环境的潜在风险。上述结论与历史资料相符合。
最后,论文结合营口近岸海域环境灾害性风险的评价结果,根据生态工业和循环经济等原理,提出了营口地区的产业布局调整的思路,及管理对策。
Recently, the environment pollution in the coastal waters is an emergent problem of significant importance.
This paper combined multi-criteria evaluation method based on catastrophe theory to set up a set of a model for the assessment of environmental disasters in near-shore areas. An evaluation system of seven mesosphere indicators and twenty underlying indicators are set up, including aqua chemistry, aqua physics, aqua biology surface sediments, heavy metals in the water and organics pollution.
Risk on environmental disasters in offshore area of Dalian Bay during year 2001 and year 2006 were evaluated using assessment of a model of pollution disaster in near-shore coastal waters. The result was that, in 2001, the overall environmental disaster indicators in the local Dalian Bay coastal waters was not qualified as Level 3 sea water quality standard, meaning there existed risks of eutrophication disaster and organic pollutants disaster; in 2006, the overall environmental disaster indicators in the local Dalian Bay coastal waters was qualified as Level 2 sea water quality standard but there still existed the risk of eutrophication disaster. Our result is coincident with the history record.
Considering the actual situation in the nearshore sea areas in Yingkou, China, eutrophication disaster indicators, organic pollutants disaster indicators and heavy metals disaster indicators were chosen accordingly to evaluate risks on environmental disasters in different near-shore areas in Yingkou during 1998 to 2007. The results showed that before year 2004, eutrophication disaster could have happened anywhere in Yingkou, organic pollutants disaster in part of the sea, and nearly no chance for heavy metals disaster; after year 2005, the risks of all three to happen were lowered, however, compared to other types of disasters, eutrophication disaster was still the main threat in Yingkou. To conclude, the above conclusions are directly related to the historical distribution and change of industrial structure in Yingkou. Here, again, the results were consistent with history record.
In the end, based on the results of risk on environmental disasters in near-shore areas in Yingkou and the principles of eco-industrial and cyclic economy and so on, ideas for regulating and management strategies industrial distribution of the companies in the coast of Yingkou are brought up.
本文基于突变理论的多准则评价方法,提出了包括水体富营养化、重金属污染和有机污染三类污染灾害的近岸海域环境污染灾害评价模型。构建了包括水化学、水物理、水生物、表层沉积物及水体中的重金属和有机污染物7个中间层指标,20个底层指标的评价指标体系。
利用该模型对大连湾2001和2006年的环境灾害性风险进行了评价。评价结果表明,2001年大连湾近岸海域环境灾害性总体评价指标低于三类水质标准,具备发生水体富营养化灾害和难降解有机物污染灾害的风险;2006年,大连湾近岸海域灾害性总体评价指标达到二类水质标准,但是仍然具备发生水体富营养化灾害的风险。上述结果与历史资料相一致。
结合营口近岸海域实际情况,选取水体富营养化灾害性评价指标、难降解有机污染物灾害性评价指标、重金属污染物灾害性三个评价指标。评价了1998年至2007年营口近岸海域海区的环境灾害性风险。评价结果显示为,2004年以前,营口海域均有发生水体富营养化灾害的风险,局部海域有发生难降解有机物灾害的风险,发生重金属灾害的可能性极小,2005年以后,营口近岸海域发生各类环境灾害的风险都有所降低,但是与其他类型灾害相比,水体富营养化灾害仍然是营口海域环境的潜在风险。上述结论与历史资料相符合。
最后,论文结合营口近岸海域环境灾害性风险的评价结果,根据生态工业和循环经济等原理,提出了营口地区的产业布局调整的思路,及管理对策。
Recently, the environment pollution in the coastal waters is an emergent problem of significant importance.
This paper combined multi-criteria evaluation method based on catastrophe theory to set up a set of a model for the assessment of environmental disasters in near-shore areas. An evaluation system of seven mesosphere indicators and twenty underlying indicators are set up, including aqua chemistry, aqua physics, aqua biology surface sediments, heavy metals in the water and organics pollution.
Risk on environmental disasters in offshore area of Dalian Bay during year 2001 and year 2006 were evaluated using assessment of a model of pollution disaster in near-shore coastal waters. The result was that, in 2001, the overall environmental disaster indicators in the local Dalian Bay coastal waters was not qualified as Level 3 sea water quality standard, meaning there existed risks of eutrophication disaster and organic pollutants disaster; in 2006, the overall environmental disaster indicators in the local Dalian Bay coastal waters was qualified as Level 2 sea water quality standard but there still existed the risk of eutrophication disaster. Our result is coincident with the history record.
Considering the actual situation in the nearshore sea areas in Yingkou, China, eutrophication disaster indicators, organic pollutants disaster indicators and heavy metals disaster indicators were chosen accordingly to evaluate risks on environmental disasters in different near-shore areas in Yingkou during 1998 to 2007. The results showed that before year 2004, eutrophication disaster could have happened anywhere in Yingkou, organic pollutants disaster in part of the sea, and nearly no chance for heavy metals disaster; after year 2005, the risks of all three to happen were lowered, however, compared to other types of disasters, eutrophication disaster was still the main threat in Yingkou. To conclude, the above conclusions are directly related to the historical distribution and change of industrial structure in Yingkou. Here, again, the results were consistent with history record.
In the end, based on the results of risk on environmental disasters in near-shore areas in Yingkou and the principles of eco-industrial and cyclic economy and so on, ideas for regulating and management strategies industrial distribution of the companies in the coast of Yingkou are brought up.
引文
[1]Weng H X,Zhu Y M,Qin Y C,et al.Accumulation discrepancy of heavy metal and organic pollutants in three near-shore depositional environments,southeastern China.Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2008,31:522-532.
[2]刘浩,尹宝树.辽东湾氮、磷和COD环境容量的数值计算[J].海洋通报,2006,25(2):46-54.
[3]李正华,林健杰.福建定海表层沉积物中重金属生态评价初步研究[J].海洋环境科学,2008,27(1):23-25.
[4]Forstner U.Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences(Contaminated Sediments).Berlin:Springer Verlag,1989,107-109.
[5]贾振邦,周华,赵智杰,等.应用地积累指数法评价太子河沉积物中重金属污染[J].北京大学学报,2000,36(4):525-531.
[6]Dauvalter,Vladimir.Heavy metals in lake sediments of the kola Peninsula,Russia [J].The Science of the Total Environment,1994,158:1-3.
[7]Armitage P D,Furse M T,Wright J F.Assessment and prediction of biological quality:A demonstration of a British macro invertebrate-based method in two Spanish rivers[J].Limnetica,1990,6:147-156.
[8]刘成,王兆印,何耘,等.环渤海诸河口潜在生态风险评价[J].环境科学研究,2002,15(5):33-38.
[9]Long E R,Macdonald D D,Smith S L,et al.Incidence of adverse biological effects with ranges of chemical concentrations in marine and estuarine sediments[J].Environ Manage,1995,19(1):81-97.
[10]Holling C S.Resilience and stability of ecological systems[J].Annual Review of Eco & Syst,1973,4:1-23.
[11]Scheffer M,Carpenter S,Foley J,et al.Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems[J].Nature,2001,413:591-596.
[12]Muradian R.Ecological thresholds:a survey[J].Ecological Economics,2001,38:7-24.
[13]曹佳莲,刘宪斌.天津港南部海区水体富营养化水平评价[J].海洋湖沼通报,2007,增刊:121-129.
[14]赵军,穆云侠.锦州湾近岸海域富营养化趋势的探讨[J].辽宁城乡环境科技,2000,20(3):3-5.
[15]常会庆,车青梅.富营养化水体的评价方法研究[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(32):10407-10409.
[16]Hakanson L.An ecological risk index for aquatic pollution control:a sediment ecological approach[J].Water Res,1980,14(8):975-1001.
[17]Celo V,Babi D,Baraj B,et al.An assessment of heavy metal pollution in the Sediments along the Albanian coast.Water,Air,and Soil Pollution,1999,111:235-250.
[18]陈江麟,刘文新,刘书臻,等.渤海表层沉积物重金属污染评价[J].海洋科学,2004,28(12):16-21.
[19]唐银健.Hakanson指数法评价水体沉积物重金属生态风险的应用进展[J].环境科学导刊2008,27(3):66-68.
[20]林秀梅,刘文新,陈江麟,等.渤海表层沉积物中多环芳烃的分布与生态风险评价[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(1):70-75.
[21]王伟,祁士华,苏秋克,吴辰熙,李敏.泉州湾表层沉积物中残留DDTs污染现状及风险评价[J].安全与环境工程,2006,13(1):41-44.
[22]陈鸣渊,俞志明等.利用模糊综合方法评价长江口海水富营养化水平[J].海洋科学,2007,31(11):47-55.
[23]阿诺尔德.突变理论[M].北京-商务印书馆,1992.
[24]宋强,叶守泽.突变理论在水电工程环境影响评价中的应用[J].华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),1991,25(3):362-364.
[25]周绍江.突变理论在环境影响评价中的应用[J].人民长江,2003,34(2):52-54.
[26]李绍飞,孙书洪,王向余.突变理论在还和流域地下水环境风险评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2007,38(11):1312-1317.
[27]冶雪艳,赵坤,杜新强,等.突变理论在地下水开发风险评价中的应用研究[J].人民黄河,2007,29(10):47-49.
[28]薛达元,郭泺,张丽荣.论生态产业和循环经济[J].环境保护,2008,24:54-57.
[29]李艳霞,辛展梅.循环经济及其必然性[J].生态环境,2005,14(2):299-300.
[30]刘远彬,左玉辉.循环经济与工业可持续发展[J].生态经济,2003,10:30-33.
[31]董锁成,艾华,徐琳.我国东北沿海地区循环经济发展模式研究.中国高校科技与产业化,2006,6:26-30.
[32]于婷婷,殷克东,方景清,等.基于灰色关联度分析的沿海省(市)海洋循环经济评价研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2008,12:80-86.
[33]赵源.基于突变理论的灾级评价[J].西南民族大学学报(自然科学版),2008,34(5):1011-1015.
[34]都兴富.突变理论在经济领域的应用(下)[M]电子科技大学出版社,1994.
[35]安斐,陶建华.渤海湾海水富营养化的二级模糊综合评价方法及其应用[J].海洋环境科学,2008,04(27):366-369.
[36]彭云辉,王肇鼎.珠江河口富营养化水平评价[J].海洋环境科学,1991,10(3):7-13.
[37]朴香花,周集体,王竞.磷酸盐在大连湾时空分布的数值模拟研究[J].大连理工大学学报,2006,46(6):819-822.
[38]张建明,于建青,刘妍.洞庭湖富营养评价指标分析及富营养化评价[J].内陆水产,2006,2:43-44.
[39]陈娜,郝家胜.铜、铅、镉、锌、汞和银离子复合污染对水蛭的急性毒性效应[J].生物学杂志,2007,24(3):32-35.
[40]何斌,何利君.四种重金属离子对淡水石斑胚胎及仔鱼急性毒性的研究[J].水利渔业,2006,26(4):94-95.
[41]国家环境保护局.GB 3097-1997,海水水质标准[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1998.
[2]刘浩,尹宝树.辽东湾氮、磷和COD环境容量的数值计算[J].海洋通报,2006,25(2):46-54.
[3]李正华,林健杰.福建定海表层沉积物中重金属生态评价初步研究[J].海洋环境科学,2008,27(1):23-25.
[4]Forstner U.Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences(Contaminated Sediments).Berlin:Springer Verlag,1989,107-109.
[5]贾振邦,周华,赵智杰,等.应用地积累指数法评价太子河沉积物中重金属污染[J].北京大学学报,2000,36(4):525-531.
[6]Dauvalter,Vladimir.Heavy metals in lake sediments of the kola Peninsula,Russia [J].The Science of the Total Environment,1994,158:1-3.
[7]Armitage P D,Furse M T,Wright J F.Assessment and prediction of biological quality:A demonstration of a British macro invertebrate-based method in two Spanish rivers[J].Limnetica,1990,6:147-156.
[8]刘成,王兆印,何耘,等.环渤海诸河口潜在生态风险评价[J].环境科学研究,2002,15(5):33-38.
[9]Long E R,Macdonald D D,Smith S L,et al.Incidence of adverse biological effects with ranges of chemical concentrations in marine and estuarine sediments[J].Environ Manage,1995,19(1):81-97.
[10]Holling C S.Resilience and stability of ecological systems[J].Annual Review of Eco & Syst,1973,4:1-23.
[11]Scheffer M,Carpenter S,Foley J,et al.Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems[J].Nature,2001,413:591-596.
[12]Muradian R.Ecological thresholds:a survey[J].Ecological Economics,2001,38:7-24.
[13]曹佳莲,刘宪斌.天津港南部海区水体富营养化水平评价[J].海洋湖沼通报,2007,增刊:121-129.
[14]赵军,穆云侠.锦州湾近岸海域富营养化趋势的探讨[J].辽宁城乡环境科技,2000,20(3):3-5.
[15]常会庆,车青梅.富营养化水体的评价方法研究[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(32):10407-10409.
[16]Hakanson L.An ecological risk index for aquatic pollution control:a sediment ecological approach[J].Water Res,1980,14(8):975-1001.
[17]Celo V,Babi D,Baraj B,et al.An assessment of heavy metal pollution in the Sediments along the Albanian coast.Water,Air,and Soil Pollution,1999,111:235-250.
[18]陈江麟,刘文新,刘书臻,等.渤海表层沉积物重金属污染评价[J].海洋科学,2004,28(12):16-21.
[19]唐银健.Hakanson指数法评价水体沉积物重金属生态风险的应用进展[J].环境科学导刊2008,27(3):66-68.
[20]林秀梅,刘文新,陈江麟,等.渤海表层沉积物中多环芳烃的分布与生态风险评价[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(1):70-75.
[21]王伟,祁士华,苏秋克,吴辰熙,李敏.泉州湾表层沉积物中残留DDTs污染现状及风险评价[J].安全与环境工程,2006,13(1):41-44.
[22]陈鸣渊,俞志明等.利用模糊综合方法评价长江口海水富营养化水平[J].海洋科学,2007,31(11):47-55.
[23]阿诺尔德.突变理论[M].北京-商务印书馆,1992.
[24]宋强,叶守泽.突变理论在水电工程环境影响评价中的应用[J].华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),1991,25(3):362-364.
[25]周绍江.突变理论在环境影响评价中的应用[J].人民长江,2003,34(2):52-54.
[26]李绍飞,孙书洪,王向余.突变理论在还和流域地下水环境风险评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2007,38(11):1312-1317.
[27]冶雪艳,赵坤,杜新强,等.突变理论在地下水开发风险评价中的应用研究[J].人民黄河,2007,29(10):47-49.
[28]薛达元,郭泺,张丽荣.论生态产业和循环经济[J].环境保护,2008,24:54-57.
[29]李艳霞,辛展梅.循环经济及其必然性[J].生态环境,2005,14(2):299-300.
[30]刘远彬,左玉辉.循环经济与工业可持续发展[J].生态经济,2003,10:30-33.
[31]董锁成,艾华,徐琳.我国东北沿海地区循环经济发展模式研究.中国高校科技与产业化,2006,6:26-30.
[32]于婷婷,殷克东,方景清,等.基于灰色关联度分析的沿海省(市)海洋循环经济评价研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2008,12:80-86.
[33]赵源.基于突变理论的灾级评价[J].西南民族大学学报(自然科学版),2008,34(5):1011-1015.
[34]都兴富.突变理论在经济领域的应用(下)[M]电子科技大学出版社,1994.
[35]安斐,陶建华.渤海湾海水富营养化的二级模糊综合评价方法及其应用[J].海洋环境科学,2008,04(27):366-369.
[36]彭云辉,王肇鼎.珠江河口富营养化水平评价[J].海洋环境科学,1991,10(3):7-13.
[37]朴香花,周集体,王竞.磷酸盐在大连湾时空分布的数值模拟研究[J].大连理工大学学报,2006,46(6):819-822.
[38]张建明,于建青,刘妍.洞庭湖富营养评价指标分析及富营养化评价[J].内陆水产,2006,2:43-44.
[39]陈娜,郝家胜.铜、铅、镉、锌、汞和银离子复合污染对水蛭的急性毒性效应[J].生物学杂志,2007,24(3):32-35.
[40]何斌,何利君.四种重金属离子对淡水石斑胚胎及仔鱼急性毒性的研究[J].水利渔业,2006,26(4):94-95.
[41]国家环境保护局.GB 3097-1997,海水水质标准[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1998.