外流移民与内流FDI：替代抑或互补？
摘要
近年来,我国的FDI流入量与移民流出量在世界排名位居前列。中国如此巨量的移民与FDI流动,带给中国的影响如何?受卢卡斯谜题解答的启发,笔者寻求将二者结合研究回答对中国影响之问。通过查阅文献,笔者发现,在移民与FDI关系上,明显存在理论与现实的悖论。经济学的经典理论提示我们,移民与FDI,二者之间存在相互替代的关系,即移民流出,资本回报率下降,FDI也流出。然而中国招商引资的过程,大都伴随着海外移民的推动和参与,同时,国外的大多数经验文献也指向了互补的结论。Schiff(2006,A)指出：只有基于具体的国家经验研究,才能对移民与FDI的关系给出正确回答。那么,中国外流移民与内流FDI之间的关系究竟如何?尤其是相应于不同技能层次的移民,二者的关系是否不同?对此,国内外尚缺乏系统的经验研究。因此,循着以上理论与现实的反差点,产生了本文的选题。具体说来,本文的主要研究内容和结果如下：
第一章导论,简要概括了本文的选题原因、意义,基本的概念和定义,研究思路,主要创新点与不足,以及本文的结构安排。
第二章综述,全面回顾了国内外相关移民与FDI关系研究的文献。另外移民与FDI关系研究也是移民与母国发展研究,或者是FDI与东道国发展研究的一个子话题,本文同时对以上两个方面的文献做了系统综述；并对本文经验检验的基石---移民数据的各种可能来源做了描述。
第三章国际移民的历史与现状,对历史上各国移民与FDI关系的历史演变做了描述性分析,构建了研究二者关系的历史大背景；勾勒了世界移民的现状,并重点描述了中国移民的现状,包括其规模与世界占比、地位等；分析了各类移民数据的优缺点,构建了一个移民数据大背景。
第四章中国外流移民与内流FDI关系的理论分析,引入拓展了研究移民流出与FDI流入的一般均衡模型框架,推演了中国移民与FDI相互作用的机理,并在此基础上引申得出二者之间关系的各种可能结果,为后文的经验检验部分提供了理论指引。主要结论是：我国低技能移民的流出,对FDI流入的影响不明显；在满足非贸易品与进口品之间的消费替代弹性小于非贸易品的生产替代弹性的条件下,高技能移民的流出,引致FDI的流入。
第五章中国外流移民与内流FDI的总量关系评估,构建了各种截面模型,面板模型,组合运用各种移民数据,使其相得益彰,相互验证,检验了同期、不同期的二者总量关系。主要结论是：我国处于同一期的外流移民与内流FDI之间具有互补关系；并且同一期的这一互补关系呈现阶段性变化,自80年代转入90年代后互补关系有所加强,但进入21世纪后,趋于弱化。进一步研究处于不同期的外流移民与内流FDI关系,发现前期移民与FDI之间也呈现互补关系,但统计不显著。换言之,对中国而言,移民与FDI之间的互补关系,主要呈现为当期互补。
第六章中国外流移民与内流FDI的分层关系评估,重点回答了不同技能层次的移民流出与FDI流入之间的不同关系；同时,延续上一章的逻辑,回答了同期、不同期的二者分层关系如何的问题。主要结论是：处于同期的外流移民与内流FDI之间的互补关系,主要由高技能移民与FDI之间的互补关系决定,中低等技能移民与FDI之间的互补关系在统计上不显著；不同期的外流移民与内流FDI之间的关系,呈现前期互补、亦当期互补的关系,并且这一互补关系主要由当期互补关系决定；更为重要的是,本文发现决定二者互补关系的当期互补关系主要由高技能移民与FDI之间的互补决定。
第七章中国外流移民与内流FDI关系的动态轨迹分析,引入拓展了从长期分析二者关系的动态连续模型,并结合中国情况,引申出中国自己的结论。主要结论是：短期移民与FDI的互补关系更为强烈；从长期来看,我国外流移民与内流FDI会形成有利经济增长的良性动态,即外流移民引致更多FDI流入,通过提升劳动生产率、人力资本水平,导致更少移民流出,二者相互作用共同促进经济增长。
第八章中国移民与FDI关系总评与政策启示,总结全文的理论与经验结论,分析其稳健性；总结二者关系的国际历史经验,为中国的移民与FDI之间关系的发展提供方向性的指引；结合本文结论和已有文献的结论,提出了一系列政策启示。
最终,本文的理论模型推理结论与经验模型验证结论,形成了主要结论相互映照、相互验证的景象；既保持了与已有文献相关研究的一致,又印证了中国经济快速发展的现实,同时,又挖掘出了中国自己的特有结论。
In recent years, China's position on FDI inflows and outflows of migrants has been at the top of the list in the world. What's the effect of FDI inflow and outflow of migrants of China? Inspired by the answer to "Lucas paradox", the author seeks to study on the link of the two valuables in order to get the true answer. There is an obvious paradox of theoretical and empirical opinion on the relationship between migration (called MIG in the following text) and FDI. The classical economic theory suggests that migration and FDI substitute one another. However, emigrants had play a positive role in the process of drawing FDI into China; and the great majority of empirical literature suggest MIG and FDI complement one another. Schiff (2006, A) had pointed out that a good answer to this issue lie in the study of specific countries. What kind of relation exists between MIG outflow and FDI inflow in China? Especially, is there a different relationship with different skill levels of emigrants in China? Until now, there is little empirical research to answer this issue in China. Therefore, based on the above contraction of theory and experience, exploring the relationship of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in China is the subject of this dissertation.
Specifically, the main contents and conclusions of this dissertation are the following:
Chapter 1, "introduction", summarizes briefly the reason and significance to choose this subject, and provides the basic concept, the way of thinking, the main innovations, the fault, the structure of this dissertation.
Chapter 2, "literature review", provides a comprehensive review of the literature of the relationship between MIG and FDI, and a review of the literature on MIG and the economic development of home countries, and the literature on FDI and the economic development of host countries since the study of the relationship of MIG and FDI are a sub topic of the two above literatures. In addition, this chapter describes possible sources of the data of migrants which is the cornerstone of the empirical study.
Chapter 3, "the history and the present of international migration", provides a history background of the study of relationship of MIG and FDI by describing the evolution of MIG and FDI of many countries. Moreover, this chapter analyzes the present status of MIG of the world and China, focusing on the scale and the position of Chinese MIG in the world. This chapter also gives a data background by analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of all kinds of data of migrants.
Chapter 4, "the theory analysis of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in China", introduces and expands a general equilibrium model studying MIG and FDI. Then this chapter deducts the mechanism of the interaction of MIG and FDI in China and draws a series of conclusions for China which are the guidelines of later econometrical analysis. The main conclusions are:the low-skilled emigrants have no obvious impact on FDI inflows; but the skilled emigrants promote FDI inflow, under the condition that consumption elasticity of substitution between domestic goods and imported goods is less than the production elasticity of substitution of domestic products.
Chapter 5, "the assessments of the total relationship of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in china", constructs a variety of cross-sectional models and Panel model, and uses jointly various kinds of migrants data so that they complement each other, authenticate mutually. The main conclusions are as follows:In the same period MIG outflow and FDI inflow have a complementary relationship in China. Moreover, the degree of this kind of relationship has changed which strengthened from the 80's into 90's and tended to weaken after entering the 21st century. In the different period, the total relationship is consistent with contemporaneous and dynamic complementarity between MIG and FDI. However the latter relationship is not statistically significant. In other words, for China, the contemporaneous complementarity plays a critic role in the total relationship of MIG and FDI.
Chapter 6, "the assessments of the stratified relationship of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in china", finds there are different relationship with different skill levels of emigrants, and this relationship is also different for the same period and different period just like chapter 5. The main conclusions are as follows:In the same period, the complementarity between skilled emigrants and FDI is very statistically significant while the complementarity between unskilled emigrants and FDI is not statistically significant. In the different period, there are a contemporaneous and dynamic complementarity relationship between.MIG and FDI, but the latter relationship is not statistically significant. More importantly, the contemporaneous complementarity is determined by the complementarity between skilled emigrants and FDI.
Chapter 7, "the analysis of the dynamic path of the interaction of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in china", introduces and expands a continuous time dynamic model based on the experience of China. The main conclusions are as follows:the degree of complementarity is more strong for the temporary MIG; in the long run, there are a good interaction between MIG and FDI in China, i.e. MIG outflow promotes FDI inflow, then lead to less MIG outflow by increasing labor productivity, human capital; so in the end the interaction of MIG outflow and FDI inflow promote economic growth in China.
Chapter 8, "the summary the relationship of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in china and the policy suggestion", summarizes the theoretical and empirical conclusions, the international experience of other countries in the history, which provides guidelines for the evolution of the interaction of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in china. In addition, this chapter put forwards a list of policy suggestions based on the conclusions of this dissertation and the literature.
Eventually, the conclusions of this dissertation confirm each other, authenticate mutually, which are consistent with the conclusions of the related studies. This dissertation finds China's special conclusions which reflect the experience of China's fast economic growth.
第一章导论,简要概括了本文的选题原因、意义,基本的概念和定义,研究思路,主要创新点与不足,以及本文的结构安排。
第二章综述,全面回顾了国内外相关移民与FDI关系研究的文献。另外移民与FDI关系研究也是移民与母国发展研究,或者是FDI与东道国发展研究的一个子话题,本文同时对以上两个方面的文献做了系统综述；并对本文经验检验的基石---移民数据的各种可能来源做了描述。
第三章国际移民的历史与现状,对历史上各国移民与FDI关系的历史演变做了描述性分析,构建了研究二者关系的历史大背景；勾勒了世界移民的现状,并重点描述了中国移民的现状,包括其规模与世界占比、地位等；分析了各类移民数据的优缺点,构建了一个移民数据大背景。
第四章中国外流移民与内流FDI关系的理论分析,引入拓展了研究移民流出与FDI流入的一般均衡模型框架,推演了中国移民与FDI相互作用的机理,并在此基础上引申得出二者之间关系的各种可能结果,为后文的经验检验部分提供了理论指引。主要结论是：我国低技能移民的流出,对FDI流入的影响不明显；在满足非贸易品与进口品之间的消费替代弹性小于非贸易品的生产替代弹性的条件下,高技能移民的流出,引致FDI的流入。
第五章中国外流移民与内流FDI的总量关系评估,构建了各种截面模型,面板模型,组合运用各种移民数据,使其相得益彰,相互验证,检验了同期、不同期的二者总量关系。主要结论是：我国处于同一期的外流移民与内流FDI之间具有互补关系；并且同一期的这一互补关系呈现阶段性变化,自80年代转入90年代后互补关系有所加强,但进入21世纪后,趋于弱化。进一步研究处于不同期的外流移民与内流FDI关系,发现前期移民与FDI之间也呈现互补关系,但统计不显著。换言之,对中国而言,移民与FDI之间的互补关系,主要呈现为当期互补。
第六章中国外流移民与内流FDI的分层关系评估,重点回答了不同技能层次的移民流出与FDI流入之间的不同关系；同时,延续上一章的逻辑,回答了同期、不同期的二者分层关系如何的问题。主要结论是：处于同期的外流移民与内流FDI之间的互补关系,主要由高技能移民与FDI之间的互补关系决定,中低等技能移民与FDI之间的互补关系在统计上不显著；不同期的外流移民与内流FDI之间的关系,呈现前期互补、亦当期互补的关系,并且这一互补关系主要由当期互补关系决定；更为重要的是,本文发现决定二者互补关系的当期互补关系主要由高技能移民与FDI之间的互补决定。
第七章中国外流移民与内流FDI关系的动态轨迹分析,引入拓展了从长期分析二者关系的动态连续模型,并结合中国情况,引申出中国自己的结论。主要结论是：短期移民与FDI的互补关系更为强烈；从长期来看,我国外流移民与内流FDI会形成有利经济增长的良性动态,即外流移民引致更多FDI流入,通过提升劳动生产率、人力资本水平,导致更少移民流出,二者相互作用共同促进经济增长。
第八章中国移民与FDI关系总评与政策启示,总结全文的理论与经验结论,分析其稳健性；总结二者关系的国际历史经验,为中国的移民与FDI之间关系的发展提供方向性的指引；结合本文结论和已有文献的结论,提出了一系列政策启示。
最终,本文的理论模型推理结论与经验模型验证结论,形成了主要结论相互映照、相互验证的景象；既保持了与已有文献相关研究的一致,又印证了中国经济快速发展的现实,同时,又挖掘出了中国自己的特有结论。
In recent years, China's position on FDI inflows and outflows of migrants has been at the top of the list in the world. What's the effect of FDI inflow and outflow of migrants of China? Inspired by the answer to "Lucas paradox", the author seeks to study on the link of the two valuables in order to get the true answer. There is an obvious paradox of theoretical and empirical opinion on the relationship between migration (called MIG in the following text) and FDI. The classical economic theory suggests that migration and FDI substitute one another. However, emigrants had play a positive role in the process of drawing FDI into China; and the great majority of empirical literature suggest MIG and FDI complement one another. Schiff (2006, A) had pointed out that a good answer to this issue lie in the study of specific countries. What kind of relation exists between MIG outflow and FDI inflow in China? Especially, is there a different relationship with different skill levels of emigrants in China? Until now, there is little empirical research to answer this issue in China. Therefore, based on the above contraction of theory and experience, exploring the relationship of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in China is the subject of this dissertation.
Specifically, the main contents and conclusions of this dissertation are the following:
Chapter 1, "introduction", summarizes briefly the reason and significance to choose this subject, and provides the basic concept, the way of thinking, the main innovations, the fault, the structure of this dissertation.
Chapter 2, "literature review", provides a comprehensive review of the literature of the relationship between MIG and FDI, and a review of the literature on MIG and the economic development of home countries, and the literature on FDI and the economic development of host countries since the study of the relationship of MIG and FDI are a sub topic of the two above literatures. In addition, this chapter describes possible sources of the data of migrants which is the cornerstone of the empirical study.
Chapter 3, "the history and the present of international migration", provides a history background of the study of relationship of MIG and FDI by describing the evolution of MIG and FDI of many countries. Moreover, this chapter analyzes the present status of MIG of the world and China, focusing on the scale and the position of Chinese MIG in the world. This chapter also gives a data background by analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of all kinds of data of migrants.
Chapter 4, "the theory analysis of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in China", introduces and expands a general equilibrium model studying MIG and FDI. Then this chapter deducts the mechanism of the interaction of MIG and FDI in China and draws a series of conclusions for China which are the guidelines of later econometrical analysis. The main conclusions are:the low-skilled emigrants have no obvious impact on FDI inflows; but the skilled emigrants promote FDI inflow, under the condition that consumption elasticity of substitution between domestic goods and imported goods is less than the production elasticity of substitution of domestic products.
Chapter 5, "the assessments of the total relationship of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in china", constructs a variety of cross-sectional models and Panel model, and uses jointly various kinds of migrants data so that they complement each other, authenticate mutually. The main conclusions are as follows:In the same period MIG outflow and FDI inflow have a complementary relationship in China. Moreover, the degree of this kind of relationship has changed which strengthened from the 80's into 90's and tended to weaken after entering the 21st century. In the different period, the total relationship is consistent with contemporaneous and dynamic complementarity between MIG and FDI. However the latter relationship is not statistically significant. In other words, for China, the contemporaneous complementarity plays a critic role in the total relationship of MIG and FDI.
Chapter 6, "the assessments of the stratified relationship of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in china", finds there are different relationship with different skill levels of emigrants, and this relationship is also different for the same period and different period just like chapter 5. The main conclusions are as follows:In the same period, the complementarity between skilled emigrants and FDI is very statistically significant while the complementarity between unskilled emigrants and FDI is not statistically significant. In the different period, there are a contemporaneous and dynamic complementarity relationship between.MIG and FDI, but the latter relationship is not statistically significant. More importantly, the contemporaneous complementarity is determined by the complementarity between skilled emigrants and FDI.
Chapter 7, "the analysis of the dynamic path of the interaction of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in china", introduces and expands a continuous time dynamic model based on the experience of China. The main conclusions are as follows:the degree of complementarity is more strong for the temporary MIG; in the long run, there are a good interaction between MIG and FDI in China, i.e. MIG outflow promotes FDI inflow, then lead to less MIG outflow by increasing labor productivity, human capital; so in the end the interaction of MIG outflow and FDI inflow promote economic growth in China.
Chapter 8, "the summary the relationship of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in china and the policy suggestion", summarizes the theoretical and empirical conclusions, the international experience of other countries in the history, which provides guidelines for the evolution of the interaction of MIG outflow and FDI inflow in china. In addition, this chapter put forwards a list of policy suggestions based on the conclusions of this dissertation and the literature.
Eventually, the conclusions of this dissertation confirm each other, authenticate mutually, which are consistent with the conclusions of the related studies. This dissertation finds China's special conclusions which reflect the experience of China's fast economic growth.
引文
1根据新古典理论,如果资本可以自由流动,那么在任何地方投资的期望收益都应相等,否则,资本应该从资本充裕的国家(收益率低)向资本稀缺(收益率高)的国家流动。事实上,更多的FDI却流向了发达国家,尤其是M&A投资,即使流向发展中国家的FDI,也表现出很强的集中趋势,多集中于拉美及亚太地区的部分国家。“为什么资本不从富国流向穷国?”,这就是著名的“卢卡斯迷题”(Lucas paradox)。Lucas (1990)对这一问题的解释是,答案在于纯数量意义上的资本价格之外,譬如政治的不稳定、产权保护的缺乏等导致的资本收益高风险的存在,使得资本的实际回报大打折扣。
2邓小平早在改革之初,就意识到了移民对中国引资的重要性,称华侨华人是中国发展的“独特机遇”,因此,我国的第一批经济特区就是从侨乡开始的。如邓小平所说,“那一年确定四个经济特区,主要是从地理条件考虑,深圳毗邻香港,珠海靠近澳门,汕头是因为东南亚国家潮人多,厦门是因为闽南人在外国经商的很多。(《邓小平文选》三卷第366页)”在表现为“地区倾斜”的特区优惠政策支持下,广东、福建两省从海外乡亲那里得到了启动经济车轮的资本、设备、订单等,从而获得了其它地区所不具备的先行一步的优势。侨乡的成功,开创了其后在中国普遍出现的出口导向工业化和以外资带动经济成长的成功先例。
3具体参见“移民与FDI的理论关联”一节。
4具体参见2.4节“移民数据的来源与说明”。
5基于长期移民与短期移民对母国发展的不同影响(Lucas,2005),有必要单独研究短期移民与FDI流入之间的不同关系何在。
6根据我国统计局数据,近年我国留学生流出数量远大于回流数量,平均在30%左右,参见图三-27。
7投资移民,是指具有一定资产,并具有一定程度的工商业经营或管理经验的人士,以投资的方式取得外国永久居留权。显然,中国外流移民带走大量物质资本,带给中国的影响是不容忽视的,但本文并未涉及这一话题,原因是,一则数据缺乏,二则这与本文的中心问题——内流移民对外来资本流入的影响,相去甚远。
8主要是当前缺乏完整的各国可比较的各类移民数据,现有相关移民研究也没有分类做实证研究的,仅有部分案例性的分类数据罗列,因此本文同样难以跳出这一局限。
9“智力获得”,与“智力流失”相对立的另外一面,即一国获得大量急需的合格技能人员。
10 Groznik(2003)发现,直接投资和移民之间关系更密切。
11 Wong(1986)重点研究了贸易和要素流动间的各种可替代性概念,Wong(2004)在分析劳动力和资本要素流动之间的关系的时候也应用了相同的概念。
1据联合国世界投资报告称,2006年只有30%的FDI流入到发展中国家。同时,国际移民的主要东道国都集中在发达国家。发达国家中,10人中就有1人生于国外,相比之下,这个比例在发展中国家是70：1。
2当前各国对流入移民的限制相当严格,甚至有日趋严格的趋势(欧盟内部的移民限制除外)。这就表明,实际上国际移民的流动,限于各国的移民政策(如实行移民配额等)不能自由流动。
3 Lucas,2005指出,长期移民与短期移民对母国发展具有不同影响,因此,有必要单独研究短期移民与FDI流入之间的关系特点。
4例如,20世纪早期迁移到巴西的德国人也引进了开始生产所需的机械(Sowell,1996)。在工业革命后,在英国和美国之间也发生了类似的机械资本和技能人员的转移(Landes,1998)。此外,跨国公司往往雇佣外籍人士,将管理活动转移至外国分公司(Harzing,2001)。 Barry(2004)报告称,英特尔公司决定在爱尔兰投资的一个重要因素就是,爱尔兰籍的工程师愿意从美国来到母国去工作。这些观察表明了FDI与移民之间应该存在互补关系。
5负值表明内流的低技能移民与海外投资间可能出现“替代”效应,这与Kugler和Rapoport (2007)在对美国数据回归以及Girma和Yu(2002)对英国贸易进行回归时发现的结果一致(当分解为经合组织与非经合组织分别回归时,非技能移民的影响仍然不显著)。
6区域层面的分析使我们能够剥离发生在国家层次之外的FDI的决定因素,集中研究一个国家的移民在某区域的分布如何影响该国在该区域的FDI的分布。
7德国凝聚指数(agglomeration index) 1单位的改变导致FDI几乎25%的增长。Foad(2009)预测,保持当地市场规模,劳动力和资本成本,以及移民社区某些特点等因素不变的情况下,德国的凝聚指数为1.82的科罗拉多州应比凝聚指数0.88的肯塔基州多出约20多个德国子公司(德国子公司 在各州每年的平均数目是82)。
8根据Foad(2009)设置的模型和检验结果,移民中拥有大学文凭的移民比例每上升100%,导致来自中东的FDI增长了175%,来自德国的FDI增长了154%,来自英国的FDI增长了137%。只有非洲表现为移民教育程度与FDI为负相关,移民中拥有大学文凭的移民比例每上升100%,造成FDI减少70%。
9就制造业的FDI流入而言,某国在美国高教育移民的移民存量上升10%,来自美国的FDI流入就会上升15%；相反,某国在美国中等教育移民的移民存量上升10%,来自美国的FDI流入就会下降7%。就服务业的FDI流入而言,某国在美国高教育移民的移民存量上升10%,来自美国的FDI流入就会上升0.5%；某国在美国中等教育移民的移民存量上升10%,来自美国的FDI流入就会下降3.5%。
10 Rauch和Trindade(2002)指出,就服务贸易而言,由于部分服务(按照GATS的规定,这种服务贸易被归为Mode Ⅳ),需要专家到服务接受国提供长时间的服务,从这个角度看,移民和贸易也存在一定互补性。
11另外,牛津大学目前正在评估未来全球和区域性移民趋势和他们对母国的影响——主要是指非洲、亚洲和中东地区,以及他们对东道国欧洲各国的影响。作为来自发展中世界的移民研究组织的代表,尼赫鲁大学的国际移民与种族网络研究项目(International Migration和Diaspora Studies (IMDS) Project)发布了印度移民报告,其创刊号预测称印度“人口红利”有助于满足全球对劳动力的需求。
12 2000年,OECD地区高技能移民占同区域移民存量的34%。
13 反事实假定测验法,即假定高教育人口的移出率(高教育对外移民占母国劳动力的比例、与低教育人口的移出率(低教育对外移民占母国劳动力的比例)相同,而不是比例更高(事实上的、,通过对比实际的母国高教育劳动力的比例,简称“移后高教育率”,和反事实假定下的母国高教育劳动力的比例,简称“反事实移后高教育率”,来看对高教育移民对母国的经济影响。
14事实上,欧盟劳动力市场一体化使得欧盟新成员国成为一个分析智力外流问题的天然经济学试验场。
15 Spilimbergo(2009)研究了国外受过教育的移民个人是否促进了本国民主发展。他发现,如果在民主国家获得国外教育,那么移民个人的确对本国民主起到了积极的影响。这就间接地提高了母国的经济发展。
16例如,她利用在移民的母国进行的家庭调查数据,详细测算了马里移民汇款的比例以及侨汇至马里的平均金额。
17例如,匈牙利、荷兰、瑞典等国该数字是外国公民人数的两倍。
18这一点不同于国籍,国籍可以随着移民的入籍发生变化。
19 Hatton与Williamson(2002)估计,居住在经合组织国家的非法移民占移民总量的10%到15%。忽略非法移民,我们可能高估了移民人口的平均教育水平(可以合理假定,大多数非法移民是没有受过教育或仅受过初等教育),不过,这一限制应该不会明显扭曲本文对高技能工人移民率的估计。
1这集中体现为这一时期的高通胀、宏观经济的波动和资本市场的反一体化政策与行动。
2这时,全球资本主义被视为一个自身不稳定的体系,易出现经济动荡和通货膨胀(如20世纪20年代),或者在衰退时期不能自我调节的用来保证充分就业的机制(如在20世纪30年代)。因此,为维护世界和平并促进世界欠发达地区经济的发展成立了联合国；一个新的全球金融体系在20世纪40年代中期出现,这就是人们所熟知的布雷顿森林体系；国际货币基金组织得以建立,其任务是,保证固定汇率系统下的正常支付；并为国家的贸易逆差提供外部融资(此时,私人资本的流动仍保持严格的限制)；新成立了世界银行,其作用是提供经济建设和发展的长期融资；世界贸易组织被提议,但从未付诸实施(直至20世纪90年代中期,世界贸易组织才成立)；国际劳工组织(TheInternational Labor Office),于1919年成立,至今仍然存在。
3移民的类型：主要包括劳务移民、家庭移民、人道移民、自由移民。
4自由循环移民,包含了工人及其家属的自由循环移民。
5爱尔兰、希腊和西班牙因为无法提供相关数据,未包括在内。
62000年,移民存量数据统计显示,每35人中有一人是移民。
7这也是当前唯一可得的、可以进行多国的高技能移民程度比较的移民数据,具体参见综述“移民数据来源”一节。
8国家按国家大小,在总人口数据的基础上进行分类：超过两千五百万的是大型国家,一千万到两千五百万的是大中型国家uppermiddle countries,两百五十万到一千万的是中小型国家lower-middle countries,不到两百五十万的是小型国家。国家按国民人均收入分类：我们使用世界银行的分类方法,区分高收入,中高收入,中低收入和低收入国家。国家按地理区域划分：我们区分四个美国地区(北美,加勒比海,中美洲和南美洲),四个欧洲地区(北欧,西欧,东欧和南欧),五个非洲地区(非洲北部,中非,西非,东非和南非),四个亚洲地区(西亚,中南亚,东南亚和东亚)和四个大洋洲地区(澳大利亚和新西兰,美拉尼西亚,密克罗尼西亚和波利尼西亚)。根据政治利益划分的国家群组：中东和北非国家Northern African countries(MENA),转型经济体,欧盟15个成员国,撒 哈拉以南国家,伊斯兰教国家(伊斯兰教国家组织成员国,OIC),阿拉伯国家(阿拉伯联盟成员国),最不发达国家(联合国定义),内陆发展中国家landlocked developing countries(联合国定义)和发展中岛国small island developing countries(联合国的定义)。以上这些国家组所包括的国家名单参见Docquier和Marfouk(2006)附录6.2。
9高收入国家,总体工资水平较高,因此来自移民母国的移民推力较弱,即移民的动机不强；低收入国家,虽然因为总体工资水平较低,具备较强的移民推力,但受制于流动性约束,很难形成真正移民的行动。
10本文中所用中国的移民数据,是由各移民东道国的、来自中国的移民数据汇总后得到的。限于各国的汇总后的全球移民数据公布的滞后,此处2010年各国移民大排名尚未公布。我们只能期待将来数据公布后,再予分析。
11注：捷克斯洛伐克在2000年前已经分裂为捷克与斯洛伐克两个国家。为了与1990年数据统计口径一致,本表仍合并处理。
1 Ricardo-Viner模型：David Ricardo在提到级差地租时用到了特定要素这一概念；Jacob Viner(1931)在其与Wong争论的著名论文中用到了这一模型；Gottfried Haberler(1936)在他关于国际贸易的经典文献中展示了这一模型的内在逻辑；后来,Paul Samuelson(1971)(?)将之总结称为Ricardo-Viner模型。在一般均衡条件下,对这一模型的正式阐述是由Samuelson和Ronald Jones(1971)做出的；尽管模型本身也可适用于封闭经济,他们二人都强调这一模型是阐释相关国际贸易理论的十分重要的模型。
2 Ricardo-Viner模型、李嘉图模型与H-O-S模型的区别：Ricardo-Viner模型(特定要素模型)假定商品既需要特定要素投入,也需要流动要素投入。与此相反,Ricardo模型假设只有一个单一的生产要素,并可以在部门间自由流动。在Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson(HOS)模型,假设有两种或更多的生产要素,所有这些要素均可在部门间自由流动。因此,我们可以理解HOS为长期模型,Ricardo-Viner为中期模型。
3参见附录一的推导。
4参见附录一的推导。
Armington假设：这种假设认为,在国际市场进行交易的产品因原产国不同而不同。Armington(1969)适用于国际宏观经济背景下,现在已经成为国际CGE模型的标准假设,与各国产品同质的 假定相比,Armington假设下的模型,贸易可以更细微、更实际地对产品价格做出回应。
6具体原理参见De Melo and Robinson (1989), p.64。
7等式(4.20)的具体推导见附录一。
8对(4.21)分母符号的证明参见附录一。
1 Poston(1990)指出：“没有哪个定义是准确而简洁的,因为一个人是不是海外华人,是由政府,由他们个人,中国定居者居住的社会,以及个人学者所决定的”
2具体参见文献综述部分“2.1移民与FDI关系——国际要素流动研究”一节。
3在新加坡、马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西亚和菲律宾,华裔持有的公司在当地私人企业部门中所占比例为70%(Weidenbaum和Hughes,1996)。
4例如,自上世纪60年代以来,华商协会共举行了近100次世界性会议；一些协会会员还享受到了由华商领导者提供的雄厚财政支持和祖国的政治支持。
5根据刘(2000,112页)“通过制定和维持适当的行为守则和支持中国文化价值观,华人社会组织已在促进商业信托的社会文化伦理方面起了重要作用。更重要的是,它们作为第三方执行机构促进商业往来(business trust)。"
6他将之分解为1984-1991年和1992-2003年两期,分别验证并对比发现,华人网络对中国FDI流入的促进作用明显增强。
7改革开放以来,中国市场制度不断健全的历程：1992年成为中国鼓励FDI流入的相关政策真正落实的重要的一年,也成为了FDI快速流入的转折年；2001年中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)开启了与国际接轨的旅程,受制于WTO条约的约束,2001年后,中国相关法律的配套、政策执行的效率和透明度都有了极大改观。
8 Singer(2006)针对1992-2003期间验证时发现：由1992-1997年转入1998-2003年时期,海外华人对中国FDI流入的促进作用在减弱。
9譬如,存在流动性约束,使得有利可图的移民难以付诸实施。
10譬如,通过实行选择性移民政策来实现对移民的筛选,这也是当前发达国家最常用和通用的限制移民的做法。
11也就是说,他们一起决定了是否会出现自选择(self-selection)问题,以及技能移民比例的高低。
12他们研究了美国1990年到2000年的外流FDI和内流移民之间的对应关系。
1正如Bhagwati(1988)所说,并非“干”即可“学”,只有在特定的环境下,在“干”中才能获得额外的“学”。
2具体推导见附录四。
3具体推导见附录四。
4根据等式(7.19),我们知道γ=log(γ)=μ3+σ3t,再根据Г(t)=-γ(t)的假定,我们可推知σ3为外流移民变量Γ(t)的增长率。
1 Baldwin和Venables基于新古典模型,他们将劳动力区分为低技能和高技能两种类型,并在模型中假定,高技能和资本之间存在互补关系；在此假定下,以欧盟扩大为背景,研究了不同要素流动之间的关系。由于高技能人群是否移民的决定,与现在和将来东西欧之间的工资差密切相关。Baldwin和Venables (1994)指出,资本的净流入会影响长期人力资本的存量,而高技能劳动力的存量变化会进一步影响外来FDI的回报。这就意味着,在高技能劳动力和资本之间存在一个循环。对新成员国来说,长期的要素禀赋变动很难确定。
2中国改开放的过程,伴随了多个地区的移民(华侨)积极投资家乡,促进家乡经济发展的经典案例,代表性的前有四个经济特区,后有温州。
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2邓小平早在改革之初,就意识到了移民对中国引资的重要性,称华侨华人是中国发展的“独特机遇”,因此,我国的第一批经济特区就是从侨乡开始的。如邓小平所说,“那一年确定四个经济特区,主要是从地理条件考虑,深圳毗邻香港,珠海靠近澳门,汕头是因为东南亚国家潮人多,厦门是因为闽南人在外国经商的很多。(《邓小平文选》三卷第366页)”在表现为“地区倾斜”的特区优惠政策支持下,广东、福建两省从海外乡亲那里得到了启动经济车轮的资本、设备、订单等,从而获得了其它地区所不具备的先行一步的优势。侨乡的成功,开创了其后在中国普遍出现的出口导向工业化和以外资带动经济成长的成功先例。
3具体参见“移民与FDI的理论关联”一节。
4具体参见2.4节“移民数据的来源与说明”。
5基于长期移民与短期移民对母国发展的不同影响(Lucas,2005),有必要单独研究短期移民与FDI流入之间的不同关系何在。
6根据我国统计局数据,近年我国留学生流出数量远大于回流数量,平均在30%左右,参见图三-27。
7投资移民,是指具有一定资产,并具有一定程度的工商业经营或管理经验的人士,以投资的方式取得外国永久居留权。显然,中国外流移民带走大量物质资本,带给中国的影响是不容忽视的,但本文并未涉及这一话题,原因是,一则数据缺乏,二则这与本文的中心问题——内流移民对外来资本流入的影响,相去甚远。
8主要是当前缺乏完整的各国可比较的各类移民数据,现有相关移民研究也没有分类做实证研究的,仅有部分案例性的分类数据罗列,因此本文同样难以跳出这一局限。
9“智力获得”,与“智力流失”相对立的另外一面,即一国获得大量急需的合格技能人员。
10 Groznik(2003)发现,直接投资和移民之间关系更密切。
11 Wong(1986)重点研究了贸易和要素流动间的各种可替代性概念,Wong(2004)在分析劳动力和资本要素流动之间的关系的时候也应用了相同的概念。
1据联合国世界投资报告称,2006年只有30%的FDI流入到发展中国家。同时,国际移民的主要东道国都集中在发达国家。发达国家中,10人中就有1人生于国外,相比之下,这个比例在发展中国家是70：1。
2当前各国对流入移民的限制相当严格,甚至有日趋严格的趋势(欧盟内部的移民限制除外)。这就表明,实际上国际移民的流动,限于各国的移民政策(如实行移民配额等)不能自由流动。
3 Lucas,2005指出,长期移民与短期移民对母国发展具有不同影响,因此,有必要单独研究短期移民与FDI流入之间的关系特点。
4例如,20世纪早期迁移到巴西的德国人也引进了开始生产所需的机械(Sowell,1996)。在工业革命后,在英国和美国之间也发生了类似的机械资本和技能人员的转移(Landes,1998)。此外,跨国公司往往雇佣外籍人士,将管理活动转移至外国分公司(Harzing,2001)。 Barry(2004)报告称,英特尔公司决定在爱尔兰投资的一个重要因素就是,爱尔兰籍的工程师愿意从美国来到母国去工作。这些观察表明了FDI与移民之间应该存在互补关系。
5负值表明内流的低技能移民与海外投资间可能出现“替代”效应,这与Kugler和Rapoport (2007)在对美国数据回归以及Girma和Yu(2002)对英国贸易进行回归时发现的结果一致(当分解为经合组织与非经合组织分别回归时,非技能移民的影响仍然不显著)。
6区域层面的分析使我们能够剥离发生在国家层次之外的FDI的决定因素,集中研究一个国家的移民在某区域的分布如何影响该国在该区域的FDI的分布。
7德国凝聚指数(agglomeration index) 1单位的改变导致FDI几乎25%的增长。Foad(2009)预测,保持当地市场规模,劳动力和资本成本,以及移民社区某些特点等因素不变的情况下,德国的凝聚指数为1.82的科罗拉多州应比凝聚指数0.88的肯塔基州多出约20多个德国子公司(德国子公司 在各州每年的平均数目是82)。
8根据Foad(2009)设置的模型和检验结果,移民中拥有大学文凭的移民比例每上升100%,导致来自中东的FDI增长了175%,来自德国的FDI增长了154%,来自英国的FDI增长了137%。只有非洲表现为移民教育程度与FDI为负相关,移民中拥有大学文凭的移民比例每上升100%,造成FDI减少70%。
9就制造业的FDI流入而言,某国在美国高教育移民的移民存量上升10%,来自美国的FDI流入就会上升15%；相反,某国在美国中等教育移民的移民存量上升10%,来自美国的FDI流入就会下降7%。就服务业的FDI流入而言,某国在美国高教育移民的移民存量上升10%,来自美国的FDI流入就会上升0.5%；某国在美国中等教育移民的移民存量上升10%,来自美国的FDI流入就会下降3.5%。
10 Rauch和Trindade(2002)指出,就服务贸易而言,由于部分服务(按照GATS的规定,这种服务贸易被归为Mode Ⅳ),需要专家到服务接受国提供长时间的服务,从这个角度看,移民和贸易也存在一定互补性。
11另外,牛津大学目前正在评估未来全球和区域性移民趋势和他们对母国的影响——主要是指非洲、亚洲和中东地区,以及他们对东道国欧洲各国的影响。作为来自发展中世界的移民研究组织的代表,尼赫鲁大学的国际移民与种族网络研究项目(International Migration和Diaspora Studies (IMDS) Project)发布了印度移民报告,其创刊号预测称印度“人口红利”有助于满足全球对劳动力的需求。
12 2000年,OECD地区高技能移民占同区域移民存量的34%。
13 反事实假定测验法,即假定高教育人口的移出率(高教育对外移民占母国劳动力的比例、与低教育人口的移出率(低教育对外移民占母国劳动力的比例)相同,而不是比例更高(事实上的、,通过对比实际的母国高教育劳动力的比例,简称“移后高教育率”,和反事实假定下的母国高教育劳动力的比例,简称“反事实移后高教育率”,来看对高教育移民对母国的经济影响。
14事实上,欧盟劳动力市场一体化使得欧盟新成员国成为一个分析智力外流问题的天然经济学试验场。
15 Spilimbergo(2009)研究了国外受过教育的移民个人是否促进了本国民主发展。他发现,如果在民主国家获得国外教育,那么移民个人的确对本国民主起到了积极的影响。这就间接地提高了母国的经济发展。
16例如,她利用在移民的母国进行的家庭调查数据,详细测算了马里移民汇款的比例以及侨汇至马里的平均金额。
17例如,匈牙利、荷兰、瑞典等国该数字是外国公民人数的两倍。
18这一点不同于国籍,国籍可以随着移民的入籍发生变化。
19 Hatton与Williamson(2002)估计,居住在经合组织国家的非法移民占移民总量的10%到15%。忽略非法移民,我们可能高估了移民人口的平均教育水平(可以合理假定,大多数非法移民是没有受过教育或仅受过初等教育),不过,这一限制应该不会明显扭曲本文对高技能工人移民率的估计。
1这集中体现为这一时期的高通胀、宏观经济的波动和资本市场的反一体化政策与行动。
2这时,全球资本主义被视为一个自身不稳定的体系,易出现经济动荡和通货膨胀(如20世纪20年代),或者在衰退时期不能自我调节的用来保证充分就业的机制(如在20世纪30年代)。因此,为维护世界和平并促进世界欠发达地区经济的发展成立了联合国；一个新的全球金融体系在20世纪40年代中期出现,这就是人们所熟知的布雷顿森林体系；国际货币基金组织得以建立,其任务是,保证固定汇率系统下的正常支付；并为国家的贸易逆差提供外部融资(此时,私人资本的流动仍保持严格的限制)；新成立了世界银行,其作用是提供经济建设和发展的长期融资；世界贸易组织被提议,但从未付诸实施(直至20世纪90年代中期,世界贸易组织才成立)；国际劳工组织(TheInternational Labor Office),于1919年成立,至今仍然存在。
3移民的类型：主要包括劳务移民、家庭移民、人道移民、自由移民。
4自由循环移民,包含了工人及其家属的自由循环移民。
5爱尔兰、希腊和西班牙因为无法提供相关数据,未包括在内。
62000年,移民存量数据统计显示,每35人中有一人是移民。
7这也是当前唯一可得的、可以进行多国的高技能移民程度比较的移民数据,具体参见综述“移民数据来源”一节。
8国家按国家大小,在总人口数据的基础上进行分类：超过两千五百万的是大型国家,一千万到两千五百万的是大中型国家uppermiddle countries,两百五十万到一千万的是中小型国家lower-middle countries,不到两百五十万的是小型国家。国家按国民人均收入分类：我们使用世界银行的分类方法,区分高收入,中高收入,中低收入和低收入国家。国家按地理区域划分：我们区分四个美国地区(北美,加勒比海,中美洲和南美洲),四个欧洲地区(北欧,西欧,东欧和南欧),五个非洲地区(非洲北部,中非,西非,东非和南非),四个亚洲地区(西亚,中南亚,东南亚和东亚)和四个大洋洲地区(澳大利亚和新西兰,美拉尼西亚,密克罗尼西亚和波利尼西亚)。根据政治利益划分的国家群组：中东和北非国家Northern African countries(MENA),转型经济体,欧盟15个成员国,撒 哈拉以南国家,伊斯兰教国家(伊斯兰教国家组织成员国,OIC),阿拉伯国家(阿拉伯联盟成员国),最不发达国家(联合国定义),内陆发展中国家landlocked developing countries(联合国定义)和发展中岛国small island developing countries(联合国的定义)。以上这些国家组所包括的国家名单参见Docquier和Marfouk(2006)附录6.2。
9高收入国家,总体工资水平较高,因此来自移民母国的移民推力较弱,即移民的动机不强；低收入国家,虽然因为总体工资水平较低,具备较强的移民推力,但受制于流动性约束,很难形成真正移民的行动。
10本文中所用中国的移民数据,是由各移民东道国的、来自中国的移民数据汇总后得到的。限于各国的汇总后的全球移民数据公布的滞后,此处2010年各国移民大排名尚未公布。我们只能期待将来数据公布后,再予分析。
11注：捷克斯洛伐克在2000年前已经分裂为捷克与斯洛伐克两个国家。为了与1990年数据统计口径一致,本表仍合并处理。
1 Ricardo-Viner模型：David Ricardo在提到级差地租时用到了特定要素这一概念；Jacob Viner(1931)在其与Wong争论的著名论文中用到了这一模型；Gottfried Haberler(1936)在他关于国际贸易的经典文献中展示了这一模型的内在逻辑；后来,Paul Samuelson(1971)(?)将之总结称为Ricardo-Viner模型。在一般均衡条件下,对这一模型的正式阐述是由Samuelson和Ronald Jones(1971)做出的；尽管模型本身也可适用于封闭经济,他们二人都强调这一模型是阐释相关国际贸易理论的十分重要的模型。
2 Ricardo-Viner模型、李嘉图模型与H-O-S模型的区别：Ricardo-Viner模型(特定要素模型)假定商品既需要特定要素投入,也需要流动要素投入。与此相反,Ricardo模型假设只有一个单一的生产要素,并可以在部门间自由流动。在Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson(HOS)模型,假设有两种或更多的生产要素,所有这些要素均可在部门间自由流动。因此,我们可以理解HOS为长期模型,Ricardo-Viner为中期模型。
3参见附录一的推导。
4参见附录一的推导。
Armington假设：这种假设认为,在国际市场进行交易的产品因原产国不同而不同。Armington(1969)适用于国际宏观经济背景下,现在已经成为国际CGE模型的标准假设,与各国产品同质的 假定相比,Armington假设下的模型,贸易可以更细微、更实际地对产品价格做出回应。
6具体原理参见De Melo and Robinson (1989), p.64。
7等式(4.20)的具体推导见附录一。
8对(4.21)分母符号的证明参见附录一。
1 Poston(1990)指出：“没有哪个定义是准确而简洁的,因为一个人是不是海外华人,是由政府,由他们个人,中国定居者居住的社会,以及个人学者所决定的”
2具体参见文献综述部分“2.1移民与FDI关系——国际要素流动研究”一节。
3在新加坡、马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西亚和菲律宾,华裔持有的公司在当地私人企业部门中所占比例为70%(Weidenbaum和Hughes,1996)。
4例如,自上世纪60年代以来,华商协会共举行了近100次世界性会议；一些协会会员还享受到了由华商领导者提供的雄厚财政支持和祖国的政治支持。
5根据刘(2000,112页)“通过制定和维持适当的行为守则和支持中国文化价值观,华人社会组织已在促进商业信托的社会文化伦理方面起了重要作用。更重要的是,它们作为第三方执行机构促进商业往来(business trust)。"
6他将之分解为1984-1991年和1992-2003年两期,分别验证并对比发现,华人网络对中国FDI流入的促进作用明显增强。
7改革开放以来,中国市场制度不断健全的历程：1992年成为中国鼓励FDI流入的相关政策真正落实的重要的一年,也成为了FDI快速流入的转折年；2001年中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)开启了与国际接轨的旅程,受制于WTO条约的约束,2001年后,中国相关法律的配套、政策执行的效率和透明度都有了极大改观。
8 Singer(2006)针对1992-2003期间验证时发现：由1992-1997年转入1998-2003年时期,海外华人对中国FDI流入的促进作用在减弱。
9譬如,存在流动性约束,使得有利可图的移民难以付诸实施。
10譬如,通过实行选择性移民政策来实现对移民的筛选,这也是当前发达国家最常用和通用的限制移民的做法。
11也就是说,他们一起决定了是否会出现自选择(self-selection)问题,以及技能移民比例的高低。
12他们研究了美国1990年到2000年的外流FDI和内流移民之间的对应关系。
1正如Bhagwati(1988)所说,并非“干”即可“学”,只有在特定的环境下,在“干”中才能获得额外的“学”。
2具体推导见附录四。
3具体推导见附录四。
4根据等式(7.19),我们知道γ=log(γ)=μ3+σ3t,再根据Г(t)=-γ(t)的假定,我们可推知σ3为外流移民变量Γ(t)的增长率。
1 Baldwin和Venables基于新古典模型,他们将劳动力区分为低技能和高技能两种类型,并在模型中假定,高技能和资本之间存在互补关系；在此假定下,以欧盟扩大为背景,研究了不同要素流动之间的关系。由于高技能人群是否移民的决定,与现在和将来东西欧之间的工资差密切相关。Baldwin和Venables (1994)指出,资本的净流入会影响长期人力资本的存量,而高技能劳动力的存量变化会进一步影响外来FDI的回报。这就意味着,在高技能劳动力和资本之间存在一个循环。对新成员国来说,长期的要素禀赋变动很难确定。
2中国改开放的过程,伴随了多个地区的移民(华侨)积极投资家乡,促进家乡经济发展的经典案例,代表性的前有四个经济特区,后有温州。
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