海运中人为因素与新技术的研究
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摘要
在过去的几十年中,随着对外贸易的飞速发展,斯里兰卡的海上运输业也得到快速成长和发展。经济中的对外贸易领域促进了诸如航运、海上物流、海上货运和港口操作等海运活动的成长和发展。而这些海运活动反过来也为那些热衷于这些领域的投资者和商人创造了大量的机会。本论文主要研究人为因素和海上运输中的新技术之间的关系,讨论两者之间存在的问题。
     本研究共包括五章。第一章对选题进行介绍,主要关注于该研究的假设、目标、方法和组织结构,然后介绍了本文的文献调查。第二章讨论了人为因素和海上运输领域中新技术的理论背景。第三章主要是与斯里兰卡有关的海事问题的研究。第四章是本研究分析的主要发现和成果。最后,第五章主要是对前面分析的解释和总结,而且该章也关注于对政策制定者的建议和一些一般备注
     第一章,首先说明了论文的研究背景和研究目的,接着,提出了研究假设、研究方法和论文结构,最后,基于文献对研究现状进行了分析。
     一般认为,从任何意义上来讲船上的生活和工作条件对船员来说都是严酷的和艰苦的,因此在过去的几十年中开发出了一系列新技术。这些新技术的目的是减轻或缓解船员的困难并且通过使用卫星导航和自动引航来避免对他们造成的最终危险并提高船舶效益。但是,这些新技术是否真的有助于减轻船员的困难还不十分确定,如果是的话,新技术在多大程度上有助于缓解困难。还有一点也是不确定的,即基于新技术的导航系统是否已经有助于减轻环境和形势对船员造成的困难。
     因此,第一个需要检验可信性的假设是“船上应用的新技术和船员的工作条件与他们在这些船上的产量有紧密联系”。换句话说,这个假设认为人为因素与技术因素之间存在紧密的联系。第二个需要检验的假设是船上应用的技术已经明显的帮助减少船员的危险形势和船上的产量水平。第三个需要检验的假设是关于教育机构和当局对船上使用的新技术的现代性的调查。因此,这个关系到公设的疑问,这个公设即斯里兰卡的海事当局和海事教育机构和他们的教师及教员对新技术知识和设备以及其他可用的设备和系统有足够的了解,并且斯里兰卡政府提供给海事教育用于鼓励相关人员掌握最新的知识和技能的奖励是充足和足够的。第四个假设是海事教育机构,当地政府和政策制定者已经给予足够的鼓励以达到世界海事组织海事培训规则规定的关于新技术的最低要求的最高水平的培训。
     第二章,介绍了论文研究领域相关的理论,包括人为因素、海上运输中的新技术和数据挖掘、层次分析法、回归分析等数据分析方法。
     人为因素方面,研究了人的因素的概念、人的因素的作用、人的因素的构成要素、人机模型、人为失误、人为失误的分类、人的因素分析和分级系统等理论。
     海上运输中的新技术方面,研究了自动识别系统(AIS)、电子海图显示和信息系统(ECDIS)、综合驾驶台系统(IBS)、综合导航系统(INS)、E-Navigation、船舶交通管理系统(VTS)等技术。
     数据分析方法方面,研究了数据挖掘、CHAID、层次分析法(AHP)、回归分析等方法。
     第三章,从海事管理、海港发展、船员供求、海事教育和培训等方面对斯里兰卡的实际情况进行了分析。
     海事管理方面,介绍了斯里兰卡港口和航空部、锡兰航运有限公司(CSCL)、商船董事会。斯里兰卡港口和航空部负责全国范围内的港口、航运、航空发展和管理,并负责制定相关政策,协调、监控、指导相关工程和项目,加强法律体制建设,引进新指南以便提供更好的服务,关注发展趋势等。锡兰航运有限公司是斯里兰卡历史最悠久的航运公司。该公司是国家级的大型航运企业,在斯里兰卡船舶运输、船员培训、港口建设等方面均有贡献。商船董事会负责船舶入级、船员发证、海事教育等方面的工作。
     海港发展方面,斯里兰卡正在筹建两个大型港口。一是,科伦坡南港,占地600公顷,12个泊位,水深18米。预计2029年完工。二是,Hambantona港,水深16米,泊位总长度11千米,供集装箱船停靠。港内拟建热电站、汽油储罐、燃料储存设备等。同时,港内提供造船、修船服务。预计2040年完工
     船员供求方面,分析了甲板部和轮机部的船员供求状况。根据波罗的海及国际海事委员会(BIMCO)和国际航运联盟的数据,全世界每年约需要40000名高级船员。斯里兰卡每年约有15000人的需求。斯里兰卡签发的船员证书总数截至1994年底共3090份,至2001年增长到4110份,2005年达到5154份,2008年达到5838份。其中,具备值班资格的低级船员证书签发量最大,2007年,该类证书占所有证书种类签发的百分比,甲板部约为88%,轮机部约为78%。
     海事教育和培训方面,分别介绍了斯里兰卡课程学分系统、莫勒图沃大学、马哈坡拉培训学院、科伦坡国际航海和轮机学院、兰卡技术研究学校、商船船员培训学校等海事教育培训机构。根据斯里兰卡商船部的要求,按照等级的不同,甲板部的船员发证,分别需要参加390-1113.25小时不等的课程;轮机部的船员发证,分别需要参加462-1035小时不等的课程。
     第四章,以人为因素中的疲劳因素和新技术之间的关系为研究重点,结合第二章的数据分析方法对问卷调查数据进行了分析。
     首先分析了问卷调查的基本情况。问卷调查分为客观问卷和主观问卷两种。客观问卷部分主要包括:个人信息、船上工作状况、船上新技术状况、对新技术的看法,四个部分;主观问卷分别针对海事主管机构和海事教育机构,以简答题的方式进行提问。有效的问卷调查共351份。其中,男性船员占98%,女性船员占2%;船员年龄从20岁至60岁不等;甲板部船员222名,轮机部船员129名。甲板部船员等级从1至4级分别占21%、7%、46%、26%;轮机部船员等级从1至4级分别占9%、29%、59%、3%。船上工作年限方面,1-5年,甲板部36%,轮机部33%;6-10年,甲板部21%,轮机部37%;11-15年,甲板部21%,轮机部22%;16年以上,甲板部22%,轮机部8%。
     接着分析了甲板部和轮机部影响疲劳的因素。
     甲板部的船员,49%的人对新设备的操作有信心,39%的人认为信心一般;41%的人对新系统的操作有信心,15%的人认为信心一般;86%的人认为新技术使工作变得更加简单;49%的人合同期限在3-6个月之间,29%的人合同期限在6-9个月之间;94%的人每天工作时间超过8个小时;45%的人认为船上的社交生活一般,28%的人认为较好,9%的人认为很好;50%的人在港装卸货时间少于1天,36%的人在1-2天之间;34%的人假期在3个月以上,38%的人假期在2-3个月之间,22%的人假期在1-2个月之间。
     轮机部的船员,52%的人对新设备的操作有信心,41%的人认为信心一般;46%的人对新系统的操作有信心,39%的人认为信心一般;63%的人认为新技术使工作变得更加简单;49%的人合同期限在3-6个月之间,34%的人合同期限在1-3个月之间;67%的人每天工作时间超过8个小时;50%的人认为船上的社交生活一般,39%的人认为较好,8%的人认为很好;39%的人假期在3个月以上,25%的人假期在2-3个月之间,3 1%的人假期在1-2个月之间。
     还分析了影响疲劳的其它因素。船员个别因素、管理因素、船舶个别因素、环境因素等。另外,还提到了船上食物质量对船员的影响。
     同时,还分析了船上可用的新技术的作用及其船员压力和疲劳的关系。
     客观问卷调查中,30-39题调查了新技术对人为因素的作用。每道题由船员从0-10分,分别进行评分。通过层次分析法确定各个问题的权重,即被调查船员认为新技术的哪些作用比较重要、哪些不重要。通过计算,得到权重由高到低的排序为34、31、35、32、30、33、36、38、37、39,可以看出,被调查船员认为新技术对加强船上的沟通作用最明显。利用模糊综合评价方法对30-39题进行评价,最终得到的结果表明,新技术对人为因素有很大的影响。
     针对客观问卷调查中,28、46、48、49几个重要问题,分析了其它问题的回答与这些题目之间的关联关系。利用数据挖掘中的CHAID法,得出问题21与问题28的关联度最大,问题9与问题46、48、49的关联度最大。通过数据挖掘分析,可以发现问题与问题之间的内在联系,以及被调查船员的答题倾向,并可以通过该方法对船员进行初步分类。
     利用回归分析,得到了疲劳和压力与个性、身体条件、工作态度、新技术的知识、新技术知识的自我更新、新技术的强制学习等各项因素的关系。利用得到的公式,即可根据各项因素计算出疲劳或压力值,并可对疲劳和压力进行预测和分析。
     另外,还分析了海上事故中的新技术和人为因素。与人为因素有关的海难事故中,特别重要的人为因素有:保持正规了望、保持安全航速、保持夜视、遵守海上航行规则、坚持让请右侧船的原则、保持分析视觉和听觉信息、保持警惕等几个方面。
     最后分析了世界海事组织在疲劳管理上的贡献,主要体现在《1978年海员培训、发证和值班标准国际公约95修正案》以及其和国际劳工组织联合颁布的《国际劳工公约》。
     第五章,对全文进行总结,提出了政策和实践上的改进措施,对未来的研究工作进行了展望。
     本文对现存的文献进行了仔细的研究,以找到所谓的人为因素和海运中所使用的新技术之间的关系的现存模式背后的原因。然后向从世界各地随机选取的351名在职船员发放了调查问卷,所收集到的数据和信息被详细的制成表格。对可用的出版物和其他文献进行了搜集和深入的研究,详细的阅读和研究了官方文献和其他出版物。基础数据和信息是通过调查问卷中结构化和非结构化的问题来收集和获得的。调查问卷包括在随机选定的一些船员样本中进行的调查。这样做的最初的目的是为了确保设计的调查问卷能够与研究的目的相一致。直接的、重点的群体和电话访问是与海事教育机构、海事当局官员、退休船员和船东一起进行的。其他数据来源于相关的网站、学报、在线新闻、期刊、书籍和其他学术出版物。特别是,使用了层次分析法、模糊综合评判和CHAID决策树方法来分析现代技术中人为因素的有效性。在通过以上步骤收集到的同化信息的基础上,得出一些结论和建议,包括发展中国家的海事教育的发展、海事技术的发展、疲劳的管理方法、海事主管机关的发展等方面的内容。
     海运业中的新技术已经被作为一个基本特征而被广泛接受,大多数情况下使用这些技术的方式是令人满意的。但是,相同的技术同时也会给船员和船舶带来风险和危害。由于各种原因,新技术被引进到了船上:在有些情况下,是由于新规则的施行所驱动的,例如船舶自动识别系统(AIS)的使用;在另外一些情况下,是由于教育新船员而引进的。在某些情况下,驾驶台的高科技设备可能导致航行安全的降低。许多船员在这点上比较敏感,也许是由于他们在面对先进科技时缺乏自信,也许是因为他们确实不知道如何使用这些设备和/或没有接受任何有关该技术的足够的培训。因而导致了全球性的有经验的船员的短缺,至少当前有经验的船员的需求肯定远远大于供应量。
The maritime transportation sector of Sri Lanka has grown and developed fast as the external trade sector has grown and developed rapidly over the past several decades. The external trade sector of the economy fuels the growth of the maritime activities such as, shipping and sea-transport, sea freight, and port operation. This has, in turn, created tremendous opportunities for investors and entrepreneurs keen in the sector. This research/thesis examines the relationship between the'human element'and the new technology in maritime transportation. The main objective of this study is to discuss the existing issues betwixt human element and new technology in maritime transportation sector.
     It is generally understood that the living and working conditions onboard ships is harsh and arduous in every sense for the sailors and hence new technology has been developed over the past number of years whose purpose is to mitigate and cushion some of those hardships for the sailors and to increase productivity onboard ships by avoidance of eventual hazards to them through satellite navigation and auto-piloting. But it is not very sure if they have contributed to mitigating the difficulties for the sailor and if so, to what extent the new technology has helped to assuage hardships. Then it is not very sure if the new technology based navigational systems have helped reduce the hardships at work imposed by situation and circumstance of sailing on sailors.
     Thus the first hypothesis is to test the plausibility that there is a close connection between new technology employed onboard ships and the working conditions of the sailors and their productivity onboard those ships. This hypothesis yields, in other words, that there is close symbiosis between yields human factors and technology factor. The second hypothesis to be tested yields that the technology employed onboard ships has helped to reduce tangibly the situations of hazards for the sailors and their levels of productivity onboard ships. The third hypothesis to be tested concerns investigation of the updating of the educators and administrators with new technology used onboard ships. Thus it concerns the inquiry of the postulation that goes as maritime education institutes and their teachers and instructors as well as the maritime administrators of Sri Lanka are well up-to-date with new technological know-how and technical instruments and other implements and systems available, and that the incentives offered to maritime education encourage the concerned people to bring up date their knowledge and skills by the state of Sri Lankan has been sufficient and adequate. The fourth hypothesis concerns the educational institutes, local government and policy-makers have been giving sufficient encouragement in achieving the highest level of training on new technology due to the minimum requirement stipulated by the IMO maritime training regulations.
     This study is organised in five chapters. Chapter One is the introductory part that focuses on the hypothesis, objectives, methodology and the organisation of the study. Then it attends the Literature Survey. Chapter Two discusses the theoretical background of human element and the new technology in maritime transportation sector. Then Chapter Three focuses on the research issue with relevance for the maritime issues that concerns Sri Lanka. The main findings of the analyses are Chapter Four. Finally, Chapter Five focuses on interpretation of the analyses and the concluding remarks. Then it also focuses on formulations for the policy makers and some general remarks.
     A careful survey of the existing literature has been carried out, thus, to establish reasons behind existing mode of relations between the so-called human element and the new technology used in connection with maritime transport. Then a questionnaire was distributed amongst 351 randomly selected active (those who are still in employment) sailors from various parts of the world and the data and information thus gathered were carefully tabulated. First, an in-depth search and examination of the available publications and other documents have been conducted. For this reason both official documents and other publications have been perused. The primary data and information have been gathered by way of structure and un-structured questions posed in the questionnaire. The questionnaire consisted of a sample survey carried out within group of randomly selected sailors. This was initially done to ensure that the questionnaire to be designed is in the line with the objectives of the research. The direct, focused group and telephone interviews were carried out with the maritime education institutes, maritime administrative officers, retired sailors, and ship owners. The secondary data was sourced from related internet sites, journals, online newspapers, periodicals, books and other academic publications. Graphical method and some statistical tools were used for the purpose of analysis. Particularly, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Fuzzy Comprehensive Judgment and CHAID Decision Tree Method were used to analyse the effectiveness of human element on new technology. On the basis of this assimilated information congregated by following the above steps, a number of conclusions and suggestions were prepared.
     New technology in the maritime industry has generally been welcomed as an essential feature and the way this technology has been utilised in most situations has been desirable. However the same technology has also introduced a measure of hazard and risk for the sailor and his ship. The introduction of new technology onboard ships has been brought by a number of factors. In some instances it has been driven by new regulations, as in the case of Automatic Identification System (AIS). In other instances it has been brought by tech savvy novices. High-tech gadgetry on the bridge can, in some instances, result in reduced safety in navigation. Some sailors are sensitive in this regard, perhaps because they do not feel confident in the face of advanced technology, perhaps they do not really understand how to use it and/or have not received any adequate training in it. Then there is a global shortage of experienced sailors. As at present the demand is most certainly greater than the supply, at present.
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