中国与东盟机电产品产业内贸易研究
摘要
机电产业在中国与东盟五国制造业中具有重要的战略地位,机电产品是中国与东盟五国的第一大项贸易商品。本文从产业内贸易的视角研究中国与东盟五国机电产业的区域分工问题,对深化中国与东盟五国机电产业的区域国际分工,促进中国与东盟全面经济合作具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
本文采取了定性分析与定量分析相结合、规范分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,在充分掌握产业内贸易理论及相关研究文献的基础上,利用详实权威的数据资料,系统研究了中国与东盟机电产品产业内的现状、特点、趋势和决定因素,并提出促进中国与东盟机电产品产业内贸易发展的建议。
本文的主要研究结论是:1998年以来,中国与东盟国家机电产品产业内贸易值和产业内贸易比重均显著上升,但产业内贸易商品结构和产业内贸易地理方向严重失衡,产业内贸易商品低质化,区域分工的“零部件专业化”、“生产工序专业化”和“跨国公司主导”特征明显。从理论上讲,规模经济、差异化产品、要素禀赋、市场结构、外商直接投资和中国-东盟自由贸易区是中国与东盟机电产品产业内贸易的主要决定因素。实证分析的结果表明:外商直接投资差额对中国与东盟机电产品产业内的影响与理论预期一致,而市场规模、市场规模差异以及人均固定资本差异对中国与东盟机电产品产业内贸易的影响与理论预期相反。加强中国与东盟机电产品产业内贸易研究,优化中国与东盟机电产品产业内贸易的形式、微观主体、商品结构、机制和政策是推动中国和东盟机电产品产业内贸易发展的确实需要。?
In ASEAN and China, the mechanical and electrical industry, which has the greatest trade volume of all the industries, plays an important and strategic part in the manufactured industry. From the angle of intra-industry trade (IIT), research on issues of international division of mechanical and electrical product between ASEAN and China has the theoretical and practical meaning to deepen the international division in the trade zone and promote the bilateral and comprehensive cooperation.
With the joint methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis, normative and empirical analysis, the paper, using the concrete and authoritative statistics, makes a systematic research on the situation, peculiarities, tendency and determinants of the IIT of mechanical and electrical product between ASEAN and China based on the thorough mastery of intra-industry theory and related documents.
The main concludes of this paper are as follows. Since 1998, the IIT value and the IIT index of the mechanical and electrical industry between ASEAN and China have gone up notably. However, the problems of commodity structure derangement and geographic direction imbalance have unveiled. The aspects of low quality of commodity, the specialization of components and product procedure in the trade area and the multinational corporation oriented have been highlighted. Theoretically, scale economy, differential products, factor endowment, market structure, foreign direct investment (FDI) and CAFTA are the determinants of the IIT of mechanical and electrical industry between ASEAN and China. And the results of empirical analysis show that the discrepancy of FDI is in the accordance with the theoretical expectation. On the opposite, the market scale, the discrepancy of market scale and the discrepancy of per capital fixed capital formation are disagreement with the theoretical expectation. Therefore, to promote the development of IIT of mechanical and electrical industry between ASEAN and China, that is the firm need to strengthen the research on the IIT of mechanical and electrical industry between ASEAN and China and optimize the form, micro subject, commodity structure, system and policy.
本文采取了定性分析与定量分析相结合、规范分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,在充分掌握产业内贸易理论及相关研究文献的基础上,利用详实权威的数据资料,系统研究了中国与东盟机电产品产业内的现状、特点、趋势和决定因素,并提出促进中国与东盟机电产品产业内贸易发展的建议。
本文的主要研究结论是:1998年以来,中国与东盟国家机电产品产业内贸易值和产业内贸易比重均显著上升,但产业内贸易商品结构和产业内贸易地理方向严重失衡,产业内贸易商品低质化,区域分工的“零部件专业化”、“生产工序专业化”和“跨国公司主导”特征明显。从理论上讲,规模经济、差异化产品、要素禀赋、市场结构、外商直接投资和中国-东盟自由贸易区是中国与东盟机电产品产业内贸易的主要决定因素。实证分析的结果表明:外商直接投资差额对中国与东盟机电产品产业内的影响与理论预期一致,而市场规模、市场规模差异以及人均固定资本差异对中国与东盟机电产品产业内贸易的影响与理论预期相反。加强中国与东盟机电产品产业内贸易研究,优化中国与东盟机电产品产业内贸易的形式、微观主体、商品结构、机制和政策是推动中国和东盟机电产品产业内贸易发展的确实需要。?
In ASEAN and China, the mechanical and electrical industry, which has the greatest trade volume of all the industries, plays an important and strategic part in the manufactured industry. From the angle of intra-industry trade (IIT), research on issues of international division of mechanical and electrical product between ASEAN and China has the theoretical and practical meaning to deepen the international division in the trade zone and promote the bilateral and comprehensive cooperation.
With the joint methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis, normative and empirical analysis, the paper, using the concrete and authoritative statistics, makes a systematic research on the situation, peculiarities, tendency and determinants of the IIT of mechanical and electrical product between ASEAN and China based on the thorough mastery of intra-industry theory and related documents.
The main concludes of this paper are as follows. Since 1998, the IIT value and the IIT index of the mechanical and electrical industry between ASEAN and China have gone up notably. However, the problems of commodity structure derangement and geographic direction imbalance have unveiled. The aspects of low quality of commodity, the specialization of components and product procedure in the trade area and the multinational corporation oriented have been highlighted. Theoretically, scale economy, differential products, factor endowment, market structure, foreign direct investment (FDI) and CAFTA are the determinants of the IIT of mechanical and electrical industry between ASEAN and China. And the results of empirical analysis show that the discrepancy of FDI is in the accordance with the theoretical expectation. On the opposite, the market scale, the discrepancy of market scale and the discrepancy of per capital fixed capital formation are disagreement with the theoretical expectation. Therefore, to promote the development of IIT of mechanical and electrical industry between ASEAN and China, that is the firm need to strengthen the research on the IIT of mechanical and electrical industry between ASEAN and China and optimize the form, micro subject, commodity structure, system and policy.
引文
[1]Aquino A.Intra-industry and inter-industry specialization as current source of international trade in manufacture [J].Weltmirtschaftliches Archiv,1978,114(2):275-296.
[2]Balassa B.Tariff reductions and trade in manufactures among the industrial countries [J].American Economic Review,1966,56:466-473.
[3]Balassa B.The determinants of intra-industry specialization in United States trade [M].Oxford Economic papers,1986,38(2):220-233.
[4]Brander J A,Krugman P R.A reciprocal dumping model of international trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1983,15:313-321.
[5]Brander J A.Intra-industry trade in identical commodities [J].Journal of International Economics,1981,(11):1-14.
[6]Chamberlin E H.The theory of monopolistic competition [M].Cambridge(): Harvard University Press,1933.
[7]Dixit A K,Stiglitz J E.Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity[J].American Economic Review,1977,vol.67:97-308.
[8]Either W J.National and international returns to scale in the modern theory of international trade[J].American Economic Review,1982,72(3):389-405.
[9]Falvey R E.Commercial policy and intra-industry trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1981,vol.11:495-511.
[10] Falvey R E,Kiezkowski H.Product quality, intra-industry trade and imperfect competition, in edited by Kierzkowski H, Protection and competition in international trade: Essays in honor of W M Corden[M]. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1987.
[11]Flam H,Helpman E.Vertical product differentiation and North-South Trade[J].The American Economic Review,1987,vol.77:810-822.
[12] Fontage,Freudenberg.Intra-industry trade: methodological issues reconsidered[R].1997,CEPII.
[13] Grubel H G,Lloyd P J.Intra-industry Trade: the theory and measurement of international trade in differentiated products[M].London: The Macmillan Press Ltd,1975.
[14]Helpman E.International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition [J].Journal of International Economics, 1981, 11:305-340.
[15]Keiko Ito,Kyoji Fukao.Vertical intra-industry trade and the division of labor in East Asia[R].Discussing paper series A No.444,the fourteenth annual East Asian Seminar on Economics International Trade,2003.
[16]Kojima Kiyoshi.The pattern of international trade among advanced countries[J].Hitosubasbi Journal of Economics,1964,June:16-36.
[17]Krugman.Increasing returns, monopolistic competition and international trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1979,vol.9:469-479.
[18]Lancaster K.Intra-industry trade under perfect monopolistic competition[J].Journal of International Economics,1980,10:151-176.
[19]Michaely M.Concentration in international trade[M].Amsterdam: North-Holland Publish Company,1962.
[20]Mudell R A.International trade and factor mobility[J].American Economics Review,1957,47(3):321-335.
[21]Prema-chandra Athukorala. Production Fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context[R]. published by Nobuaki Yamashita, Division of Economics Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University,2004.
[22]Shaked A,Sutton J.Natural oligopolies and international trade, in monopolistic competition and international trade(ed. Kierzkowskowski)[M].Oxford: Oxford University Press,1984.
[23]Verdoon P J.The intra-block trade of Benelux, in edited by Robinson E A G, Economic Consequences of the Size of Nations [M].London: The Macmillan Press Ltd, 1960.
[24]Yang,X.Endogenous vs. exogenous comparative advantages and economics of specialization vs. economics of sale[J].Journal of Economics,1994,vol.60:45-60.
[25]陈莉莉.中新产业内贸易及其决定因素研究[J].华南理工大学学报,2008,4:53-57.
[26]杜运苏,彭恒文.中国产业内贸易决定因素的实证研究——基于制造业行业面板数据[J].财经科学,2008,9:118-124.
[27]杜运苏.中国和马来西亚制成品产业内贸易的实证研究[J].东南亚纵横,2006,1:17-20.
[28]贾颖.中国与东盟产业内贸易研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2007.
[29]金哲松.国际贸易结构与流向[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2000.
[30]克鲁格曼.克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2001.
[31]赖明勇等.东盟削减机电产品进口关税对中国经济的影响分析——基于可计算一般均衡模型的研究[J].经济界,2007,1:36-44.
[32]乐峥艳,王传毅.中国东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易现状及影响因素[J].商业时代,2008,9:36-37.
[33]李春阳,谭坚.收入分配结构对产业内贸易的影响——基于中国东盟的实证研究[J].商场现代化,2008,1:8-9.
[34]李健等.计算机产业全球生产网络分析——兼论其在中国大陆的发展[J].地理学报,2008,64(4):437-448.
[35]李立民,陈文慧.中国西南与东盟国家产业内贸易发展实证分析[J].东南亚纵横,2009,8:42-46.
[36]李准晔,金洪起.中韩贸易结构分析[J].中国工业经济,2002,2:47-54.
[37]廖新平.中国—东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易的实证研究[J].湖南行政学院学报,2006,3:33-35.
[38]林曦.我国第7类产品的国际分工地位分析——依据产业内贸易指数[J].亚太经济,2006,1:98-100.
[39]强永昌.产业内贸易——国际贸易最新理论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2002.
[40]石静,王鹏.水平和垂直产业内贸易的实证研究:基于国家特征的视角[J].世界经济研究,2008,4:39-44.
[41]石岚.中国与东盟产业内贸易影响因素实证分析[D].南宁:广西大学,2007.
[42]史智宇.产业内贸易研究:中国与东盟国家[J].世界经济文汇,2003,4:37-43.
[43]王春丽.产业内贸易理论视角下的中国—东盟双边贸易[J].亚太经济,2006,5:17-20.
[44]王娟.中国—东盟产业内贸易发展趋势的实证分析[J].东南亚纵横,2004,6:33-37.
[45]王娟.中国—东盟国家产业内贸易发展的趋势、动因与对策[J].世界经济研究,2005,7:60-65.
[46]吴俊,张家峰.规模收益递增、产业内贸易与要素禀赋理论[J].世界经济,2008,2:42-56.
[47]小岛清.对外贸易论[M].天津:南开大学出版社,1987.
[48]杨小凯,张永生.新兴古典经济学与超边际分析[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2003:59-62.
[49]杨小凯等.新兴古典经济学和超边际分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[50]张海霞.我国和东亚国家制造业产业内贸易研究——以机械设备类(SITC第7大类)为例[D].广州:暨南大学,2006.
[51]张娜,李立民.基于产业内贸易视角的中国与东盟产业结构调整探讨[J].东南亚纵横,2008,4:22-27.
[52]周丽,展之爱.中泰两国农产品产业内贸易的实证研究[J].国际商务,2009,4:41-46.
[53]资树荣,曾伟.中国—东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易的实证研究[J].国际商务,2007,4:10-15.
①参阅李俊.产业内贸易理论、政策与实践[M].广州:产业内贸易理论、政策与实践.2002.
①资料来源:Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration: East Asia in a Global Context. Prema-chandra Athukorala, published by Nobuaki Yamashita, Division of Economics Research School of Pacific and Asia Studies, The Austrilian National University.
①http://www.dh.gov.cn/bofcom/432925011150372864/20100305/254288.html
[2]Balassa B.Tariff reductions and trade in manufactures among the industrial countries [J].American Economic Review,1966,56:466-473.
[3]Balassa B.The determinants of intra-industry specialization in United States trade [M].Oxford Economic papers,1986,38(2):220-233.
[4]Brander J A,Krugman P R.A reciprocal dumping model of international trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1983,15:313-321.
[5]Brander J A.Intra-industry trade in identical commodities [J].Journal of International Economics,1981,(11):1-14.
[6]Chamberlin E H.The theory of monopolistic competition [M].Cambridge(): Harvard University Press,1933.
[7]Dixit A K,Stiglitz J E.Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity[J].American Economic Review,1977,vol.67:97-308.
[8]Either W J.National and international returns to scale in the modern theory of international trade[J].American Economic Review,1982,72(3):389-405.
[9]Falvey R E.Commercial policy and intra-industry trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1981,vol.11:495-511.
[10] Falvey R E,Kiezkowski H.Product quality, intra-industry trade and imperfect competition, in edited by Kierzkowski H, Protection and competition in international trade: Essays in honor of W M Corden[M]. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1987.
[11]Flam H,Helpman E.Vertical product differentiation and North-South Trade[J].The American Economic Review,1987,vol.77:810-822.
[12] Fontage,Freudenberg.Intra-industry trade: methodological issues reconsidered[R].1997,CEPII.
[13] Grubel H G,Lloyd P J.Intra-industry Trade: the theory and measurement of international trade in differentiated products[M].London: The Macmillan Press Ltd,1975.
[14]Helpman E.International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition [J].Journal of International Economics, 1981, 11:305-340.
[15]Keiko Ito,Kyoji Fukao.Vertical intra-industry trade and the division of labor in East Asia[R].Discussing paper series A No.444,the fourteenth annual East Asian Seminar on Economics International Trade,2003.
[16]Kojima Kiyoshi.The pattern of international trade among advanced countries[J].Hitosubasbi Journal of Economics,1964,June:16-36.
[17]Krugman.Increasing returns, monopolistic competition and international trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1979,vol.9:469-479.
[18]Lancaster K.Intra-industry trade under perfect monopolistic competition[J].Journal of International Economics,1980,10:151-176.
[19]Michaely M.Concentration in international trade[M].Amsterdam: North-Holland Publish Company,1962.
[20]Mudell R A.International trade and factor mobility[J].American Economics Review,1957,47(3):321-335.
[21]Prema-chandra Athukorala. Production Fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context[R]. published by Nobuaki Yamashita, Division of Economics Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University,2004.
[22]Shaked A,Sutton J.Natural oligopolies and international trade, in monopolistic competition and international trade(ed. Kierzkowskowski)[M].Oxford: Oxford University Press,1984.
[23]Verdoon P J.The intra-block trade of Benelux, in edited by Robinson E A G, Economic Consequences of the Size of Nations [M].London: The Macmillan Press Ltd, 1960.
[24]Yang,X.Endogenous vs. exogenous comparative advantages and economics of specialization vs. economics of sale[J].Journal of Economics,1994,vol.60:45-60.
[25]陈莉莉.中新产业内贸易及其决定因素研究[J].华南理工大学学报,2008,4:53-57.
[26]杜运苏,彭恒文.中国产业内贸易决定因素的实证研究——基于制造业行业面板数据[J].财经科学,2008,9:118-124.
[27]杜运苏.中国和马来西亚制成品产业内贸易的实证研究[J].东南亚纵横,2006,1:17-20.
[28]贾颖.中国与东盟产业内贸易研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2007.
[29]金哲松.国际贸易结构与流向[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2000.
[30]克鲁格曼.克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2001.
[31]赖明勇等.东盟削减机电产品进口关税对中国经济的影响分析——基于可计算一般均衡模型的研究[J].经济界,2007,1:36-44.
[32]乐峥艳,王传毅.中国东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易现状及影响因素[J].商业时代,2008,9:36-37.
[33]李春阳,谭坚.收入分配结构对产业内贸易的影响——基于中国东盟的实证研究[J].商场现代化,2008,1:8-9.
[34]李健等.计算机产业全球生产网络分析——兼论其在中国大陆的发展[J].地理学报,2008,64(4):437-448.
[35]李立民,陈文慧.中国西南与东盟国家产业内贸易发展实证分析[J].东南亚纵横,2009,8:42-46.
[36]李准晔,金洪起.中韩贸易结构分析[J].中国工业经济,2002,2:47-54.
[37]廖新平.中国—东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易的实证研究[J].湖南行政学院学报,2006,3:33-35.
[38]林曦.我国第7类产品的国际分工地位分析——依据产业内贸易指数[J].亚太经济,2006,1:98-100.
[39]强永昌.产业内贸易——国际贸易最新理论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2002.
[40]石静,王鹏.水平和垂直产业内贸易的实证研究:基于国家特征的视角[J].世界经济研究,2008,4:39-44.
[41]石岚.中国与东盟产业内贸易影响因素实证分析[D].南宁:广西大学,2007.
[42]史智宇.产业内贸易研究:中国与东盟国家[J].世界经济文汇,2003,4:37-43.
[43]王春丽.产业内贸易理论视角下的中国—东盟双边贸易[J].亚太经济,2006,5:17-20.
[44]王娟.中国—东盟产业内贸易发展趋势的实证分析[J].东南亚纵横,2004,6:33-37.
[45]王娟.中国—东盟国家产业内贸易发展的趋势、动因与对策[J].世界经济研究,2005,7:60-65.
[46]吴俊,张家峰.规模收益递增、产业内贸易与要素禀赋理论[J].世界经济,2008,2:42-56.
[47]小岛清.对外贸易论[M].天津:南开大学出版社,1987.
[48]杨小凯,张永生.新兴古典经济学与超边际分析[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2003:59-62.
[49]杨小凯等.新兴古典经济学和超边际分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[50]张海霞.我国和东亚国家制造业产业内贸易研究——以机械设备类(SITC第7大类)为例[D].广州:暨南大学,2006.
[51]张娜,李立民.基于产业内贸易视角的中国与东盟产业结构调整探讨[J].东南亚纵横,2008,4:22-27.
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①参阅李俊.产业内贸易理论、政策与实践[M].广州:产业内贸易理论、政策与实践.2002.
①资料来源:Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration: East Asia in a Global Context. Prema-chandra Athukorala, published by Nobuaki Yamashita, Division of Economics Research School of Pacific and Asia Studies, The Austrilian National University.
①http://www.dh.gov.cn/bofcom/432925011150372864/20100305/254288.html