绿地投资和跨国并购对东道国经济增长的比较分析及其对中国的启示
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摘要
自20世纪70年代以来,世界范围内FDI的增长速度都十分迅速,成为当今全球经济生活中最活跃、最引人注目的经济现象之一,并在2007年达到一个最高点。传统研究成果表明,FDI对于东道国经济增长从多种渠道起着促进作用,这也是各国政府都尽力争取FDI的原因之一。但是近年来,越来越多的实证研究发现,FDI对于东道国经济增长的作用并不像想象中的那样明显,在某些情况下甚至有着阻碍作用。于是我们有必要从一个新的角度更加深入的分析FDI与东道国经济之间的关系。
     目前的相关学术研究在分析FDI与东道国经济增长的相关性问题上,一般都以FDI总量为基础,而忽略了其构成。而跨国公司在进入东道国时可以自主选择两种方式:绿地投资或者跨国并购。绿地投资是直接投资建立新的企业工厂,而跨国并购则是通过并购东道国已存在的企业工厂进行的,这两种不同的FDI进入模式有着本质上的区别,不同进入模式对东道国的经济影响是不同的。本文的研究就是以FDI进入东道国的不同模式:绿地投资和跨国并购对东道国的经济影响为对象的。
     本文首先从理论出发,分析绿地投资和跨国并购这两种FDI进入模式的异同,并且通过对1997-2006年世界40个国家的数据进行实证分析研究,发现:短期内,绿地投资对于东道国经济的直接促进作用及其技术外溢作用都不甚明显;跨国并购在短期内可能会抑制东道国的经济增长,但是只要东道国人力资源达到一定水平,则跨国并购将会通过技术外溢的渠道促进东道国的经济增长。最后本文结合我国FDI发展和分布状况,以及各地区将社会经济现状,提出了吸引FDI进入的相应的政策建议。
Ever since 70s of the last century, FDI has been increasing extremely fast worldwide. It has become one of the most attracting activities and its volume has reached to a historical record. Traditional researches demonstrate that FDI can promote the economic growth of host countries by several means, which is one of the reasons why governments make great efforts to obtain more FDI. However, recent empirical results cast doubts on the established positive relationship between FDI and economic growth in theoretical literature. Moreover, in some circumstances, it may even hinder the growth. Consequently, it is worthwhile to explore the economic effects of FDI from a new perspective.
     Current researches generally focus on the gross volume of FDI investigating growth effects on host countries, while ignoring its composition. Yet, a multinational corporation can choose freely between two modes when entering a host country, namely Greenfield investments and Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions, which are essentially different from each other, thus may result in different economic effects. Greenfield investment is FDI via establishing new business facility, while Cross-border M&A is FDI through a form of obtaining an existing company in host country. Based on this distinction, the purpose of this paper is trying to find out the economic impacts of Greenfield investment and Cross-border M&A, respectively.
     I will first start from theoretical analysis, hoping to analyze both the similarities and differences of Greenfield investment and Cross-border M&A. An empirical analysis using cross-country data for the period 1997-2006 from 40 countries suggests that gross FDI exerts an ambiguous effect on growth. In short term, the direct and indirect economic impacts of Greenfield investment are insignificant; however, Cross-border M&A has significant negative direct effects on host countries' growth, while as long as the host countries have the capability to absorb the technology they can benefit from Cross-border M&A. Finally, combining the development and distribution of FDI, as well as regional socio-economic status in China, some corresponding policy will be recommended on attracting FDI.
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