基于过滤理论的中国住房保障政策研究
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摘要
中低收入人群的住房问题始终是社会必须面对的重大问题，关乎到经济的可持续发展和社会公平。随着中国收入差距的不断拉大、城市化进程加快以及住房市场化改革，房价在近10年左右的时间内经上升到一个较高的位置，住房供给结构日益趋于高端化，众多中低收入居民仍然无法拥有一套合意的住房。在此背景下，研究如何运用住房保障政策解决中低收入人群的住房问题具有重要的理论及实践意义。
与过滤理论的基本思想相同，住房保障问题本质仍可以概括为住房等级与收入等级动态匹配的问题。本文以住房市场的过滤过程为切入点，根据一般均衡理论构建模型，分析完全市场状态下的住房市场过滤过程，据此总结出两类住房保障政策的独有特征和共有特征。
在中国，商品房市场、尤其是高端商品房市场过度繁荣与保障性住房发展缓慢的现象并存。分析结果表明：商品房市场广泛存在的投机行为和由此产生的住房市场泡沫在推高住房价格的过程中起到了巨大作用，并带动了从高端商品房到低端商品房的非理性投资行在时间上和空间上的迅速扩散。由此导致中国住房市场出现了过滤阻断的现象，即中高端商品房难以通过市场过滤，降低品质流入低端市场。
在住房市场正常过滤过程受阻的情况下，居民收入层次与住房供应等级无法匹配是产生住房保障问题的重要原因，其直接表现是保障对象的住房支付能力低下。为此本文从住房可支付能力的时序变动、区域差异和收入阶层差异三个角度进行了比较分析，并将居民住房支付能力的影响因素归结为住房成本、经济基本面、国家信贷政策、家庭财富积累、国家住房保障政策和家庭消费结构等六个方面。
最后，针对中国住房市场过滤阻断的现状，在考虑住房供给结构动态变化的条件下，以提高住房支付能力为目标，从理顺住房市场过滤过程和调整住房供应体系切入，讨论了如何制定适合中国国情的住房保障政策方案。
论文的创新性工作主要体现在：利用一般均衡理论构建了住房市场过滤模型；分析了当前中国面对的过滤阻断现象，及其所带来的住房支付困境；提出了中国住房分层供应体系设想及配套措施。
How low-and-medium-income population can afford to buy a house is always amajor issue of any country, relating to the sustainable economic development andthe social equity. With the widening of the income gap, the rapid urbanization andthe housing market-oriented reforms, the housing price has risen to a higherposition in the past10years or so; housing supply structure is moving towardshigh-end; and many low-and-medium-income residents are still unable to have a setof desirable house. In this background, the research of how to use the housingguarantee policies to address the housing problems of low-and-medium-incomegroups is important in theory and practice.
Similar to the basic idea of the filter theory, the nature of the housing guaranteeproblem can be summarized as the dynamic matching of the housing level and theincome level. With the filtration process of the housing market as the starting point,this study constructs a model based on general equilibrium theory, analyzes thefiltration process of the housing market in the full market state, and sums up theindependent and the consolidated features of two types of guarantee policies.
In China, the over-prosperity of the real estate market, especially the high-endreal estate market and the slow development of the affordable housing co-exist. Theanalysis results show that the widespread speculation in the real estate market andthe housing market bubbles thereof have played a huge role in pushing up thehousing prices and resulted in the rapid spread of the non-rational investmentbehavior from the high-end real estate to the low-end real estate in time and space,leading to the filter blocking of the current housing market, i.e. the high-end realestate is difficult to filter through the market to achieve the quality decrease to getinto the low-end market.
In the blocking case of the natural filtration in the housing market, themismatch of the residents' income levels and housing supply levels is main cause ofthe housing guarantee problems, a direct manifestation of which is the low housingaffordability of the objects. Therefore, we compare and analyze from the viewpointsof time-space changes, the regional differences and the income differences betweenclasses and attribute the six impact factors of the housing affordability to the cost ofhousing, economic fundamentals, the national credit policy, the accumulation ofhousehold wealth, the national housing guarantee policies and the householdconsumption structure.
Finally, considering the status of the filter blocking of China's housing marketand the dynamically changing conditions of the housing supply structure, we set the improvement of the housing affordability as the goal, smooth the housing marketfiltration process, adjust the housing supply system and discuss how to developsuitable China's housing guarantee policy.
The main innovative work of this paper is the construction of housing marketfiltering model based on general equilibrium theory; the analysis of the current filterblocking phenomenon of China’s real estate market and the corresponding housingpayment difficulties; and the proposed Chinese housing supply system andsupporting measures.
与过滤理论的基本思想相同，住房保障问题本质仍可以概括为住房等级与收入等级动态匹配的问题。本文以住房市场的过滤过程为切入点，根据一般均衡理论构建模型，分析完全市场状态下的住房市场过滤过程，据此总结出两类住房保障政策的独有特征和共有特征。
在中国，商品房市场、尤其是高端商品房市场过度繁荣与保障性住房发展缓慢的现象并存。分析结果表明：商品房市场广泛存在的投机行为和由此产生的住房市场泡沫在推高住房价格的过程中起到了巨大作用，并带动了从高端商品房到低端商品房的非理性投资行在时间上和空间上的迅速扩散。由此导致中国住房市场出现了过滤阻断的现象，即中高端商品房难以通过市场过滤，降低品质流入低端市场。
在住房市场正常过滤过程受阻的情况下，居民收入层次与住房供应等级无法匹配是产生住房保障问题的重要原因，其直接表现是保障对象的住房支付能力低下。为此本文从住房可支付能力的时序变动、区域差异和收入阶层差异三个角度进行了比较分析，并将居民住房支付能力的影响因素归结为住房成本、经济基本面、国家信贷政策、家庭财富积累、国家住房保障政策和家庭消费结构等六个方面。
最后，针对中国住房市场过滤阻断的现状，在考虑住房供给结构动态变化的条件下，以提高住房支付能力为目标，从理顺住房市场过滤过程和调整住房供应体系切入，讨论了如何制定适合中国国情的住房保障政策方案。
论文的创新性工作主要体现在：利用一般均衡理论构建了住房市场过滤模型；分析了当前中国面对的过滤阻断现象，及其所带来的住房支付困境；提出了中国住房分层供应体系设想及配套措施。
How low-and-medium-income population can afford to buy a house is always amajor issue of any country, relating to the sustainable economic development andthe social equity. With the widening of the income gap, the rapid urbanization andthe housing market-oriented reforms, the housing price has risen to a higherposition in the past10years or so; housing supply structure is moving towardshigh-end; and many low-and-medium-income residents are still unable to have a setof desirable house. In this background, the research of how to use the housingguarantee policies to address the housing problems of low-and-medium-incomegroups is important in theory and practice.
Similar to the basic idea of the filter theory, the nature of the housing guaranteeproblem can be summarized as the dynamic matching of the housing level and theincome level. With the filtration process of the housing market as the starting point,this study constructs a model based on general equilibrium theory, analyzes thefiltration process of the housing market in the full market state, and sums up theindependent and the consolidated features of two types of guarantee policies.
In China, the over-prosperity of the real estate market, especially the high-endreal estate market and the slow development of the affordable housing co-exist. Theanalysis results show that the widespread speculation in the real estate market andthe housing market bubbles thereof have played a huge role in pushing up thehousing prices and resulted in the rapid spread of the non-rational investmentbehavior from the high-end real estate to the low-end real estate in time and space,leading to the filter blocking of the current housing market, i.e. the high-end realestate is difficult to filter through the market to achieve the quality decrease to getinto the low-end market.
In the blocking case of the natural filtration in the housing market, themismatch of the residents' income levels and housing supply levels is main cause ofthe housing guarantee problems, a direct manifestation of which is the low housingaffordability of the objects. Therefore, we compare and analyze from the viewpointsof time-space changes, the regional differences and the income differences betweenclasses and attribute the six impact factors of the housing affordability to the cost ofhousing, economic fundamentals, the national credit policy, the accumulation ofhousehold wealth, the national housing guarantee policies and the householdconsumption structure.
Finally, considering the status of the filter blocking of China's housing marketand the dynamically changing conditions of the housing supply structure, we set the improvement of the housing affordability as the goal, smooth the housing marketfiltration process, adjust the housing supply system and discuss how to developsuitable China's housing guarantee policy.
The main innovative work of this paper is the construction of housing marketfiltering model based on general equilibrium theory; the analysis of the current filterblocking phenomenon of China’s real estate market and the corresponding housingpayment difficulties; and the proposed Chinese housing supply system andsupporting measures.
引文
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