重庆市房地产现状及前景研究
摘要
重庆房地产市场从直辖十年以来一直保持快速发展态势。特别是在加快城市化建设和承接沿海重点加工贸易梯度转移以来,由于受到市政府进行的大规模招商引资政策和旧房拆迁影响,市民对房地产的刚性需求被大量释放,与此同时,房地产投资也有了一个飞跃,供需双方的增长促成了重庆房地产市场新一轮的起飞。但是在近两年重庆房地产市场快速发展过程中存在着供应结构不合理,商品房价格上涨过快等不稳定因素,由此引发了人们对重庆房地产市场是否存在过热现象、有没有泡沫的激烈讨论。特别是今年房地产市场形式的急剧下滑,因此有必要在这个关键时期详细地梳理重庆房地产的发展情况,这对于保持重庆房地产与国民经济共同持续健康快速发展具有重要的意义。
本文的研究内容主要集中在对重庆房地产市场发展情况的分析和对重庆市房地产市场预测及政策建议几个方面。
对重庆房地产市场发展情况的分析主要包括了两个方面的内容:重庆市房地产发展现状分析,重庆市房地产居住、商业和金融用地现状分析。
对重庆市房地产市场预测及政策建议的分析主要包括重庆房地产发展特点、重庆房地产市场的供给、需求与价格特征、重庆房地产市场发展趋势、重庆市房地产市场预测和重庆房地产健康发展的政策建议。
文章最后对重庆市未来房地产市场发展走势的展望采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对未来重庆市房地产市场的供应量、需求量以及房地产发展方向行了预测。
Chongqing real estate market has been developing rapidly for 10 years since it became municipality. Especially in the city to speed up construction along the coast and we focus on processing trade since the transfer of Gradient Due to the city government carried out large-scale demolition of old policies and investment impact on the public demand for real estate has been a large number of rigid released at the same time, the Housing Real estate investment has been a leap in the growth of both supply and demand led to a new round of Chongqing's real estate market to take off. But in the past two years, the rapid development of Chongqing real estate market there is in the process of the supply structure is irrational, housing prices rose too fast, and other factors of instability arising from people's Chongqing existence of the real estate market overheating, there is no bubble of intense Discussion. This year in particular, the real estate market in the form of a sharp decline, it is necessary at this critical time to sort out details of Chongqing's real estate development for Chongqing to maintain the real estate industry and the national economy sustained healthy and rapid development of the common is of great significance.
This article studies mainly focused on the development of Chongqing's real estate market analysis and Chongqing Municipality on the real estate market forecasts and policy proposals in several aspects.
Chongqing to the development of the real estate market analysis, including two major aspects: development of the real estate industry in Chongqing, Chongqing's real estate residential, commercial and financial analysis of the status of the land.
Chongqing's real estate market forecast and analysis of major policy proposals, including the development of the characteristics of the real estate industry in Chongqing, Chongqing's real estate market supply and demand and price characteristics of the real estate market trends Chongqing, Chongqing City real estate market forecasts and Chongqing Housing Real estate and healthy development of policy proposals.
Finally, the article of Chongqing Municipality in the future development trend of the real estate market outlook for qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method for the future of Chongqing's real estate market supply and demand for real estate development firms, as well as a forecast.
本文的研究内容主要集中在对重庆房地产市场发展情况的分析和对重庆市房地产市场预测及政策建议几个方面。
对重庆房地产市场发展情况的分析主要包括了两个方面的内容:重庆市房地产发展现状分析,重庆市房地产居住、商业和金融用地现状分析。
对重庆市房地产市场预测及政策建议的分析主要包括重庆房地产发展特点、重庆房地产市场的供给、需求与价格特征、重庆房地产市场发展趋势、重庆市房地产市场预测和重庆房地产健康发展的政策建议。
文章最后对重庆市未来房地产市场发展走势的展望采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对未来重庆市房地产市场的供应量、需求量以及房地产发展方向行了预测。
Chongqing real estate market has been developing rapidly for 10 years since it became municipality. Especially in the city to speed up construction along the coast and we focus on processing trade since the transfer of Gradient Due to the city government carried out large-scale demolition of old policies and investment impact on the public demand for real estate has been a large number of rigid released at the same time, the Housing Real estate investment has been a leap in the growth of both supply and demand led to a new round of Chongqing's real estate market to take off. But in the past two years, the rapid development of Chongqing real estate market there is in the process of the supply structure is irrational, housing prices rose too fast, and other factors of instability arising from people's Chongqing existence of the real estate market overheating, there is no bubble of intense Discussion. This year in particular, the real estate market in the form of a sharp decline, it is necessary at this critical time to sort out details of Chongqing's real estate development for Chongqing to maintain the real estate industry and the national economy sustained healthy and rapid development of the common is of great significance.
This article studies mainly focused on the development of Chongqing's real estate market analysis and Chongqing Municipality on the real estate market forecasts and policy proposals in several aspects.
Chongqing to the development of the real estate market analysis, including two major aspects: development of the real estate industry in Chongqing, Chongqing's real estate residential, commercial and financial analysis of the status of the land.
Chongqing's real estate market forecast and analysis of major policy proposals, including the development of the characteristics of the real estate industry in Chongqing, Chongqing's real estate market supply and demand and price characteristics of the real estate market trends Chongqing, Chongqing City real estate market forecasts and Chongqing Housing Real estate and healthy development of policy proposals.
Finally, the article of Chongqing Municipality in the future development trend of the real estate market outlook for qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method for the future of Chongqing's real estate market supply and demand for real estate development firms, as well as a forecast.
引文
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[2] R.James Follain, Eumannel Jimencz. Estimating the Demand for Housing Characteristics: A Survey and Critique. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1999,(1):77-107.
[3] C.William, D.Denise. Housing Problem and Housing Policy[J]. Journal of Social Policy, 1998,26(7):388.
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[6]沈悦,刘洪玉.中国房地产开发投资与GDP的互动关系[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2004,44(9).
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[8]周艳.上海房地产市场发展状况与宏观经济的相关性研究[D].重庆大学, 2004.
[9]陈水祥.中国房地产业与经济增长关系的计量分析[D].华中科技大学, 2003.
[10]石庆喜,华杰.基于神经网络BP算法的市场预测研究[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版), 2004,21(1).
[11]杨志辉,颜七笙.房地产销售预测[J].统计与决策, 2005(1).
[12]李木祥.中国房地产泡沫研究[M] .北京:中国金融出版社, 2007.
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[14]郑华.房地产市场分析[M].北京:电子工业出版社, 2003.
[15]时筠仑.房地产波动规律研究[D], 2005.
[16]张洪力.房地产经济学[M].机械工业出版社, 2004.
[17]李艳双.房地产业与国民经济的协调发展[D].天津大学, 2003.
[18]刘学成.国外房地产周期研究综述[J].中国房地产, 2001(4).
[19]刘学成.国内房地产周期研究综述[J].中国房地产, 2001(5).
[20] Born, W. L. and S. A. Pyhrr. Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles[J]. Journal of Real Estate Research, 1994,9(4):455-485.
[21] Pritchett, Clayton. Forecasting the Impact of Real Estate qcles on Investment[J]. Real Estate Review, 1984, 13,(4):85-89.
[22] Homer Hoyt. A Method for Measuring the Value of Imports into an Urban Community Land Economics[J], 1961,37(2)150-161.
[23]何国钊,曹振良,李展.中国房地产周期研究[J].经济研究, 1996(2).
[24]郝丁.我国房地产经济波动与金融风险防范研究[J].西南则经大学, 2006.
[25]谭刚.房地产周期波动理论,实证与政策分析[M].北京:经济管理出版社, 2001.
[26] Bertrand Reynaud. The 1985-1994 Global Real Estate Cycle: Its Causes and Consequences[J]. Policy Research Working Paper of the World Bank, 1995.
[27]关涛.房地产经济周期的微观解释:行为经济学方法与实证研究[D].复日大学, 2005.
[28] Stephen A.,Pyhrr,Stephen E. Roulac,Wa1dol. Born. Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and portfolio Managers in the Global Economy[J]. Journal of Real Estate Research, 1999,l8(18):7-68.
[29]刘志平,土学孝.房地产开发可行性研究的思考[J].城市开发, 2001,(7):10-11.
[30]袁海林.房地产开发项日市场定位的层次模型分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报, 2001, 23.
[31]印坤华等.建立和培育上海房地产金融市场[J].财经研究, 1995.01.
[32]蒋益锋.房地产泡沫检验方法评述[J].城市开发, 2005 ,( 2 ):29-30.
[33] LANCASTER KJ. A new approach to consumer theory[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1966,74(1):132-157.
[34] ROSEN S. Hedonic prices and implicit markets: Product differentiation in pure competition[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1976, 82(1): 35-55.
[35]温海珍,贾生华.住宅的特征与特征的价格——基于特征价格模型的分析[J].浙江大学学报(工学版), 2004,38(10).
[36]张红.房地产经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2005,422- 438.
[37]曹振良等.房地产经济学通论[M].北京:北京大学出版社, 2003,15-25.
[38] Hines, Wary Alice. Financing Real Estate with Securities[M]. New York:N.Y. Wiley, 1988.
[39] Panda, Mukul. The new world of real estate finance offers opportunities for deals[J]. Business News New Jersey. New Brunsw ick.Jan(6), 1997.
[40] Mary Whaley. The Automatic Millionaire Homeowner: A Powerful Plan to Finish Rich in Real Estate[M]. The Booklist.Chicago. Apr 1, 2006.
[41] Nicoletta Kotsianas. AMC Delancey Taps For Unique CMBS Loan. Real Estate Finance and Investment[J]. New York.Feb 6, 2006.
[42]华伟.房地产金融学[M].上海:复旦大学出版社, 2004.9.
[43]丁健,孙玉波.建立和培育房地产金融市场[J].中国房地产, 1995.02.
[44]杨重光.关于发展我国房地产金融市场的探讨[J].中国房地产金融, 1995.02.
[2] R.James Follain, Eumannel Jimencz. Estimating the Demand for Housing Characteristics: A Survey and Critique. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1999,(1):77-107.
[3] C.William, D.Denise. Housing Problem and Housing Policy[J]. Journal of Social Policy, 1998,26(7):388.
[4]施建刚,獭川新.房地产业与国民经济互动性分析[J].经济管理, 2000, (2) : 27-31.
[5]谭刚.房地产周期波动[M].北京:经济管理出版社, 2001.
[6]沈悦,刘洪玉.中国房地产开发投资与GDP的互动关系[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2004,44(9).
[7]刘伦武.基础设施投资对经济增长推动作用研究[D].南昌:江西财经大学, 2003.
[8]周艳.上海房地产市场发展状况与宏观经济的相关性研究[D].重庆大学, 2004.
[9]陈水祥.中国房地产业与经济增长关系的计量分析[D].华中科技大学, 2003.
[10]石庆喜,华杰.基于神经网络BP算法的市场预测研究[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版), 2004,21(1).
[11]杨志辉,颜七笙.房地产销售预测[J].统计与决策, 2005(1).
[12]李木祥.中国房地产泡沫研究[M] .北京:中国金融出版社, 2007.
[13]王洪卫,简德三,孙明章.房地产经济学[M].上海出版社, 1997.
[14]郑华.房地产市场分析[M].北京:电子工业出版社, 2003.
[15]时筠仑.房地产波动规律研究[D], 2005.
[16]张洪力.房地产经济学[M].机械工业出版社, 2004.
[17]李艳双.房地产业与国民经济的协调发展[D].天津大学, 2003.
[18]刘学成.国外房地产周期研究综述[J].中国房地产, 2001(4).
[19]刘学成.国内房地产周期研究综述[J].中国房地产, 2001(5).
[20] Born, W. L. and S. A. Pyhrr. Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles[J]. Journal of Real Estate Research, 1994,9(4):455-485.
[21] Pritchett, Clayton. Forecasting the Impact of Real Estate qcles on Investment[J]. Real Estate Review, 1984, 13,(4):85-89.
[22] Homer Hoyt. A Method for Measuring the Value of Imports into an Urban Community Land Economics[J], 1961,37(2)150-161.
[23]何国钊,曹振良,李展.中国房地产周期研究[J].经济研究, 1996(2).
[24]郝丁.我国房地产经济波动与金融风险防范研究[J].西南则经大学, 2006.
[25]谭刚.房地产周期波动理论,实证与政策分析[M].北京:经济管理出版社, 2001.
[26] Bertrand Reynaud. The 1985-1994 Global Real Estate Cycle: Its Causes and Consequences[J]. Policy Research Working Paper of the World Bank, 1995.
[27]关涛.房地产经济周期的微观解释:行为经济学方法与实证研究[D].复日大学, 2005.
[28] Stephen A.,Pyhrr,Stephen E. Roulac,Wa1dol. Born. Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and portfolio Managers in the Global Economy[J]. Journal of Real Estate Research, 1999,l8(18):7-68.
[29]刘志平,土学孝.房地产开发可行性研究的思考[J].城市开发, 2001,(7):10-11.
[30]袁海林.房地产开发项日市场定位的层次模型分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报, 2001, 23.
[31]印坤华等.建立和培育上海房地产金融市场[J].财经研究, 1995.01.
[32]蒋益锋.房地产泡沫检验方法评述[J].城市开发, 2005 ,( 2 ):29-30.
[33] LANCASTER KJ. A new approach to consumer theory[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1966,74(1):132-157.
[34] ROSEN S. Hedonic prices and implicit markets: Product differentiation in pure competition[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1976, 82(1): 35-55.
[35]温海珍,贾生华.住宅的特征与特征的价格——基于特征价格模型的分析[J].浙江大学学报(工学版), 2004,38(10).
[36]张红.房地产经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2005,422- 438.
[37]曹振良等.房地产经济学通论[M].北京:北京大学出版社, 2003,15-25.
[38] Hines, Wary Alice. Financing Real Estate with Securities[M]. New York:N.Y. Wiley, 1988.
[39] Panda, Mukul. The new world of real estate finance offers opportunities for deals[J]. Business News New Jersey. New Brunsw ick.Jan(6), 1997.
[40] Mary Whaley. The Automatic Millionaire Homeowner: A Powerful Plan to Finish Rich in Real Estate[M]. The Booklist.Chicago. Apr 1, 2006.
[41] Nicoletta Kotsianas. AMC Delancey Taps For Unique CMBS Loan. Real Estate Finance and Investment[J]. New York.Feb 6, 2006.
[42]华伟.房地产金融学[M].上海:复旦大学出版社, 2004.9.
[43]丁健,孙玉波.建立和培育房地产金融市场[J].中国房地产, 1995.02.
[44]杨重光.关于发展我国房地产金融市场的探讨[J].中国房地产金融, 1995.02.