长三角区域金融发展对经济增长影响的实证分析
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摘要
经济增长是社会发展和政治稳定的前提条件。探索经济增长的源泉,并采取措施释放生产力,是理论界一直关注的问题。已有的研究认为,生产要素的积累、资源配置效率的提高、技术进步,以及制度发展、宗教信仰等都是影响经济增长的重要因素。近些年,关于金融发展对经济增长作用的研究引起了经济学家们的关注。传统的金融与经济关系理论认为,金融市场的发展促进了资本的社会化,同时也降低了企业外部融资的成本,企业外部融资比重的提高有利于社会资源配置效率的实现。金融市场的发展可以促进资本的集中、转移和交易,也改变生产经营部门的外部融资比重,社会资源的优化配置和规模效应可以在众多生产经营部门的外部融资比重变化中得以实现。总而言之,金融促进了资本流动,为社会资源优化配置创造了便利条件,有助于社会资本产出率的提高,也就是为经济发展做出了贡献。
长江三角洲地区是我国经济发展速度最快的区域之一,但是在我国加入WTO和全球经济一体化的背景下,由于各方面的竞争,长三角经济为了获得进一步的增长,必然要发挥金融的作用。本文利用金融发展和经济增长理论,从金融发展的角度揭示长三角的经济增长之谜,对长三角区域金融发展对经济增长影响进行了实证分析。
本文在结构上分六个部分进行论述。
第一部分,包括选题的背景和意义,国内外研究现状和研究思路及其框架。
第二部分,对区域金融理论有关理论进行了系统的回顾,并解释区域金融发展与经济增长的关系与内在作用机制。
第三部分,结合区域金融理论,阐述长三角区域金融发展与经济增长的现状,并在直观上描述了长三角区域金融发展对经济增长影响的历史演变。
第四部分,对长三角的区域金融发展对经济增长进行具体的实证分析,考察过去的14年长三角区域金融发展对经济增长的作用。通过金融体系(金融市场,金融中介,金融效率和保险市场)对经济增长的实证分析,我们得出相关结论。
第五部分,根据第四部分所得到的结论,指出长三角区域金融发展中存在的问题,如加强区域金融合作、股票市场还需要进一步发展。
第六部分,在前文分析的基础上,从金融中介,金融市场,金融效率和保险市场等四个方面提出政策建议。
Social development and political stability are on the premise of economic growth. Exploring reasons for economic growth and taking some measures to enhance the productivity are always the focus of theoretical attention. The researches hold the view that accumulation of factors of production, enhancement of resources allocation efficiency, technology progress, system development and religious faith are important elements influencing the economic growth. In recent years, economists pay more attention to the contributions of financial development to economic growth. According to the theories on finance and economics, as the financial market develops, the capital socialization has been promoted, which further reduces the enterprises' fund raising cost. The increasing fund raising proportion can bring about the fulfillment of efficient resource allocation. With the financial market development, most manufacturing and operating units practice capital accumulation, transfer, and transaction, and realize scale effect. To sum up, finance promotes capital flow, can optimize resource allocation and boost capital production, thus contributing to the economic development.
The Yangtze Delta is one of the zones developing rapidly in China. However, facing the competition, the Yangtze Delta is confronted with how to make finance play a full role in economic growth. Using financial development and economic growth theory, paper, from the financial development perspective, reveals the mystery of the Yangtze River Delta economic growth and analyzes the correlation, causation on Yangtze River Delta regional financial development and economic growth.
The paper is divided into 6 parts that can be summarized as follows:
Part 1 includes the background, significance, research on the status quo at home and abroad and framework.
Part 2 not only systematically looks back correlative theories about financial development and economic growth but also explains the relationship, internal mechanism between regional financial development and economic growth.
Part 3 with regional financial theory,on the Yangtze River Delta regional financial development and economic growth of the status quo,describes the development of the Yangtze River Delta regional financial impact on the economic growth of the historical evolution.
Part 4 concretely analyzes financial development and economic growth of the Yangtze Delta by means of the demonstration, expounds the role of financial development of this zone in the past over fourteen years. Through respectively analyzing the relations between financial system and economic growth, the author draws relevant conclusions.
Part 5 according to the fourth part of the conclusion, points out some problems such as enhancing regional financial cooperation ,furthering development of the stock market .
Part 6 puts forwards some suggestions from four respects.
长江三角洲地区是我国经济发展速度最快的区域之一,但是在我国加入WTO和全球经济一体化的背景下,由于各方面的竞争,长三角经济为了获得进一步的增长,必然要发挥金融的作用。本文利用金融发展和经济增长理论,从金融发展的角度揭示长三角的经济增长之谜,对长三角区域金融发展对经济增长影响进行了实证分析。
本文在结构上分六个部分进行论述。
第一部分,包括选题的背景和意义,国内外研究现状和研究思路及其框架。
第二部分,对区域金融理论有关理论进行了系统的回顾,并解释区域金融发展与经济增长的关系与内在作用机制。
第三部分,结合区域金融理论,阐述长三角区域金融发展与经济增长的现状,并在直观上描述了长三角区域金融发展对经济增长影响的历史演变。
第四部分,对长三角的区域金融发展对经济增长进行具体的实证分析,考察过去的14年长三角区域金融发展对经济增长的作用。通过金融体系(金融市场,金融中介,金融效率和保险市场)对经济增长的实证分析,我们得出相关结论。
第五部分,根据第四部分所得到的结论,指出长三角区域金融发展中存在的问题,如加强区域金融合作、股票市场还需要进一步发展。
第六部分,在前文分析的基础上,从金融中介,金融市场,金融效率和保险市场等四个方面提出政策建议。
Social development and political stability are on the premise of economic growth. Exploring reasons for economic growth and taking some measures to enhance the productivity are always the focus of theoretical attention. The researches hold the view that accumulation of factors of production, enhancement of resources allocation efficiency, technology progress, system development and religious faith are important elements influencing the economic growth. In recent years, economists pay more attention to the contributions of financial development to economic growth. According to the theories on finance and economics, as the financial market develops, the capital socialization has been promoted, which further reduces the enterprises' fund raising cost. The increasing fund raising proportion can bring about the fulfillment of efficient resource allocation. With the financial market development, most manufacturing and operating units practice capital accumulation, transfer, and transaction, and realize scale effect. To sum up, finance promotes capital flow, can optimize resource allocation and boost capital production, thus contributing to the economic development.
The Yangtze Delta is one of the zones developing rapidly in China. However, facing the competition, the Yangtze Delta is confronted with how to make finance play a full role in economic growth. Using financial development and economic growth theory, paper, from the financial development perspective, reveals the mystery of the Yangtze River Delta economic growth and analyzes the correlation, causation on Yangtze River Delta regional financial development and economic growth.
The paper is divided into 6 parts that can be summarized as follows:
Part 1 includes the background, significance, research on the status quo at home and abroad and framework.
Part 2 not only systematically looks back correlative theories about financial development and economic growth but also explains the relationship, internal mechanism between regional financial development and economic growth.
Part 3 with regional financial theory,on the Yangtze River Delta regional financial development and economic growth of the status quo,describes the development of the Yangtze River Delta regional financial impact on the economic growth of the historical evolution.
Part 4 concretely analyzes financial development and economic growth of the Yangtze Delta by means of the demonstration, expounds the role of financial development of this zone in the past over fourteen years. Through respectively analyzing the relations between financial system and economic growth, the author draws relevant conclusions.
Part 5 according to the fourth part of the conclusion, points out some problems such as enhancing regional financial cooperation ,furthering development of the stock market .
Part 6 puts forwards some suggestions from four respects.
引文
[1]周立,中国各地区金融发展与经济增长—1978-2000[M],北京,清华大学出版,2004:221-226
[2]韩廷春,金融发展与经济增长—理论、实证与政策[M],北京,清华大学出版社,2003:3
[3]张军洲,中国区域金融分析[M],北京,中国经济出版社,1995:2
[4]谈儒勇,金融发展理论与中国金融发展[M],北京,中国经济出版社,2000:61
[5]雷蒙德·W·戈德史密斯,金融结构与金融发展[M],周朔等译,上海,上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,1994:18-41
[6] King,Robert·G and Ross·Levine,“Finance,Entrepreneurship,and Growth:Theory and Evidence”,Journal of Monetary Economics,1993,32:513-542
[7]罗纳德·I·麦金农,经济发展中的货币与资本[M],卢骢译,上海,三联书店上海分店,1988:1-3
[8]爱德华·I·肖,经济发展中的金融深化[M],邵伏军译,上海,三联书店上海分店,1988:2-5
[9] Patrick,Hugh,“Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries,in Economic Development Cultural Change”,1966,14:174-189
[10] Levine,Ross,“Finance Development and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda”,Journal of Economic Literature,1997,35:688-726
[11]郝寿义,安虎森,区域经济学[M],北京,经济科学出版社,1999:4-7
[12]万斌,2005年:中国长三角区域发展报告[M],北京,社会科学文献出版社,2005:5
[13]于明超,长三角地区资本形成、投资效率与经济增长方式转变[J],现代经济探讨,2005,(11):2
[14]张野,长三角区域金融风险及防范[J],金融与经济,2005,(12):21-22
[15]陈志福,我国区域金融发展差异及对策[J],财经视线,2006,(6):45-46
[16]刘仁伍,区域金融结构和金融发展理论与实证研究[M],北京,经济管理出版社,2003:37
[17]刘志彪,郑江淮等,长三角经济增长的新引擎[M],北京,中国人民大学出版社,2007:283-301
[18]洪银兴,刘志彪,长江三角洲地区经济发展的模式和机制[M],北京,清华大学出版社,2003:3
[19]于俊年,计量经济学软件—Eviews的适用[M],北京,对外经济贸易大学出版社,2003:187-204
[20]田霖,区域金融成长差异—金融地理学视角[M],北京,经济科学出版社,2006:231-232
[21]李子奈,潘文卿,计量经济学[M],北京,高等教育出版社,2000:322-334
[22]曹啸,吴军,我国金融发展与经济增长关系的格兰杰检验与特征分析[J],财贸经济,2002,(14):11-12
[23]中国人民银行上海分行课题组,长三角金融合作研究[J],上海金融,2005,(3):8-10
[24]刘春江,长三角金融合作须突破银政壁垒[J],银行家,2004,(4):65-66
[25]徐琳淋,多层次资本市场的效率研究—以长三角多层次资本市场构建为例[J],财经论丛,2006,(2):23-24
[26]张宗新,长三角经济成长中的资本市场功效及其完善[J],社会科学,2006,(1):7-8
[27]褚伟,长三角区域金融合作机制研究[J],杭州金融研修学院学报,2004,(4):3-4
[28]周路,世博经济整合长三角区域经济金融[J],上海财税,2003,(6):10-15
[29]戴天柱,长三角多层次资本市场对上海国际金融中心建设的功效分析[J],国际商务研究,2007,(4):11-13
[30]孙放,长三角区域性小额资本市场之法制架构—关于构建中小企业新融资体系的设想[J],法治论丛,2006,(2):23-25
[31]叶立新,开放型经济体系中区域银行业的发展问题[J],广东经济管理学院学报,2004,(2):47-51
[32]胡经生,上海资本市场发展与国际金融中心建设[J],新金融,2004,(8):21-23
[33]沈坤荣,范永俊,充分发挥证券市场功能保持江苏经济竞争优势[J],南京社会科学,2002,(3):83-88
[34]姚文平,杨芳,资本市场与江苏经济发展[J],江苏统计,2002,(1):9-12
[35]刘桂荣,上海保险业发展与经济增长的实证研究[J],经济学与经济管理,2007,(1):9-11
[36]谭中明,周建再,江苏保险业发展的实证分析及对策研究——基于江浙两省的比较[J],保险研究,2006,(12):21-23
[37]金雪军,余津津,长江三角洲金融合作区的创建与对策研究[J],浙江社会科学,2003,(4):67-72
[38]刘志友,构建“长三角”金融发达区设想[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2003,(12):28-30
[39]刘睿,区域金融发展对经济增长贡献度的分析[J],海南金融,2006,(3):45-47
[40]刘湘云,杜金崛,区域金融结构与经济增长的相关性研究[J],武汉大学学报,2005,(3):17-18
[41]赵伟,马瑞永,中国区域金融发展的收敛性、成因及政策建议[J],中国软科学,2002,(2):13-17
[42]中国统计年鉴,1996一2005
[43]中国五十五年统计资料汇编,中国统计出版社,2005,12
[2]韩廷春,金融发展与经济增长—理论、实证与政策[M],北京,清华大学出版社,2003:3
[3]张军洲,中国区域金融分析[M],北京,中国经济出版社,1995:2
[4]谈儒勇,金融发展理论与中国金融发展[M],北京,中国经济出版社,2000:61
[5]雷蒙德·W·戈德史密斯,金融结构与金融发展[M],周朔等译,上海,上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,1994:18-41
[6] King,Robert·G and Ross·Levine,“Finance,Entrepreneurship,and Growth:Theory and Evidence”,Journal of Monetary Economics,1993,32:513-542
[7]罗纳德·I·麦金农,经济发展中的货币与资本[M],卢骢译,上海,三联书店上海分店,1988:1-3
[8]爱德华·I·肖,经济发展中的金融深化[M],邵伏军译,上海,三联书店上海分店,1988:2-5
[9] Patrick,Hugh,“Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries,in Economic Development Cultural Change”,1966,14:174-189
[10] Levine,Ross,“Finance Development and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda”,Journal of Economic Literature,1997,35:688-726
[11]郝寿义,安虎森,区域经济学[M],北京,经济科学出版社,1999:4-7
[12]万斌,2005年:中国长三角区域发展报告[M],北京,社会科学文献出版社,2005:5
[13]于明超,长三角地区资本形成、投资效率与经济增长方式转变[J],现代经济探讨,2005,(11):2
[14]张野,长三角区域金融风险及防范[J],金融与经济,2005,(12):21-22
[15]陈志福,我国区域金融发展差异及对策[J],财经视线,2006,(6):45-46
[16]刘仁伍,区域金融结构和金融发展理论与实证研究[M],北京,经济管理出版社,2003:37
[17]刘志彪,郑江淮等,长三角经济增长的新引擎[M],北京,中国人民大学出版社,2007:283-301
[18]洪银兴,刘志彪,长江三角洲地区经济发展的模式和机制[M],北京,清华大学出版社,2003:3
[19]于俊年,计量经济学软件—Eviews的适用[M],北京,对外经济贸易大学出版社,2003:187-204
[20]田霖,区域金融成长差异—金融地理学视角[M],北京,经济科学出版社,2006:231-232
[21]李子奈,潘文卿,计量经济学[M],北京,高等教育出版社,2000:322-334
[22]曹啸,吴军,我国金融发展与经济增长关系的格兰杰检验与特征分析[J],财贸经济,2002,(14):11-12
[23]中国人民银行上海分行课题组,长三角金融合作研究[J],上海金融,2005,(3):8-10
[24]刘春江,长三角金融合作须突破银政壁垒[J],银行家,2004,(4):65-66
[25]徐琳淋,多层次资本市场的效率研究—以长三角多层次资本市场构建为例[J],财经论丛,2006,(2):23-24
[26]张宗新,长三角经济成长中的资本市场功效及其完善[J],社会科学,2006,(1):7-8
[27]褚伟,长三角区域金融合作机制研究[J],杭州金融研修学院学报,2004,(4):3-4
[28]周路,世博经济整合长三角区域经济金融[J],上海财税,2003,(6):10-15
[29]戴天柱,长三角多层次资本市场对上海国际金融中心建设的功效分析[J],国际商务研究,2007,(4):11-13
[30]孙放,长三角区域性小额资本市场之法制架构—关于构建中小企业新融资体系的设想[J],法治论丛,2006,(2):23-25
[31]叶立新,开放型经济体系中区域银行业的发展问题[J],广东经济管理学院学报,2004,(2):47-51
[32]胡经生,上海资本市场发展与国际金融中心建设[J],新金融,2004,(8):21-23
[33]沈坤荣,范永俊,充分发挥证券市场功能保持江苏经济竞争优势[J],南京社会科学,2002,(3):83-88
[34]姚文平,杨芳,资本市场与江苏经济发展[J],江苏统计,2002,(1):9-12
[35]刘桂荣,上海保险业发展与经济增长的实证研究[J],经济学与经济管理,2007,(1):9-11
[36]谭中明,周建再,江苏保险业发展的实证分析及对策研究——基于江浙两省的比较[J],保险研究,2006,(12):21-23
[37]金雪军,余津津,长江三角洲金融合作区的创建与对策研究[J],浙江社会科学,2003,(4):67-72
[38]刘志友,构建“长三角”金融发达区设想[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2003,(12):28-30
[39]刘睿,区域金融发展对经济增长贡献度的分析[J],海南金融,2006,(3):45-47
[40]刘湘云,杜金崛,区域金融结构与经济增长的相关性研究[J],武汉大学学报,2005,(3):17-18
[41]赵伟,马瑞永,中国区域金融发展的收敛性、成因及政策建议[J],中国软科学,2002,(2):13-17
[42]中国统计年鉴,1996一2005
[43]中国五十五年统计资料汇编,中国统计出版社,2005,12