重庆市居民消费增长缓慢的原因分析及对策研究
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摘要
消费对经济增长有着非常重要的影响作用。根据经济学原理,消费不仅是社会再生产的终点而且是其逻辑的起点。改革开放以来,中国经济一直保持较快的发展速度,改革发展成果显著,并且已经从传统的供给导向型转变为需求导向型。因此,消费需求的扩大对经济的快速增长能够起到重要的拉动作用,消费需求不再仅是经济运行的结果,而且更多的被看作经济运行的前提。
重庆市直辖以来,经济发生了跨越式的增长,居民生活水平有了极大改善,消费水平、消费质量不断提高,消费结构也逐渐升级。当前正处于从温饱型向小康型转变的关键时期。居民家庭生活费的支出构成同以往相比发生了很大变化。然而近年来重庆居民消费也出现了低迷徘徊的状况,居民消费呈现出相应的特征,比如消费水平提高,消费率下降、消费倾向下降,消费结构升级等等。重庆市居民消费占GDP的比重逐年降低,2008年已降到十几年来的最低点,可见,经济的飞速发展并未能带来居民消费的同步增长。无论是最终消费率还是居民消费率都呈现下降趋势,可见居民消费在支撑重庆市经济增长的同时也制约着经济的增长。这充分说明了重庆市居民消费需求不足、消费增长乏力、对经济的拉动作用减弱的现状,同时也反映出我市扩大消费需求仍有较大空间,尤其是提高农村居民消费水平。分析重庆市居民消费水平和消费倾向,消费率及消费结构的发展变化,可以为我市的产业结构调整和国民经济发展提供依据,并达到产业结构优化、资源合理配置、个人收入增长,最终不断满足居民日益增长的物质文化生活需要的目的。
本论文首先对选题的背景及意义进行了阐述,对西方学者关于消费问题的主要经济理论和国内学者研究消费函数问题采用的方法及取得的主要成果进行了归纳总结。接着分析了重庆市目前居民消费情况的现状,对重庆市居民消费率、消费增长率、消费倾向及消费结构的发展变化的分析,得出目前重庆市居民消费增长缓慢的结论。接下来本文分析了导致重庆市居民消费增长缓慢的原因:居民收入整体水平较低、增长缓慢;收入分配差距过大;消费者支出预期增加,社会保障制度不完善;以及一系列非收入影响因素,如消费环境不佳,城镇化水平较低等。在此基础上,提出了增加居民收入、缩小收入差距、提供更多的公共产品、完善社会保障制度、改善供给结构、优化消费环境等政策建议。
Consumption plays a great role in economic growth. According to economic principle, consumption is not only the final stage but also the logistic start in the life cycle of social production. Since our country carry the policy of reforming its economic system and opening to outside world, the economy growths with a high rate. Consumption is an important factor affecting economic development. On this background, consumption is not only the result of economic growth, but also the prerequisite of it.
After the ascending as municipality in 1997, the economy of Chongqing has grown with high-speed; consumption level has grown quickly,the quality of consumption has been improved consistently,and the consumption structure has been optimized unceasingly. Our country is in the critical period from having only adequate food and clothing to leading a well-off life. Composition of living expenditures for consumption has changed a lot. However, Chongqing residents’consumption has a downward trend last years. In 2008, the ratio of consumption to gdp of Chongqing fell into the lowest. Resident consumption not only can promote economic growth but also can restrict economic growth. So the study of Chongqing residents’consumption can lay basis for the city’s industry construction and national economy, promote people’s income and living conditions.
This article will first introduce a brief background on the issue of the research,then elaborate the major economic theories on consumption of the West which plays a guiding role to the policies on economy of various counties. It also summarizes the domestic scholars’methods and main achievement on this research. Then it analyses the current situation of consumption for Chongqing residents and make a conclusion. Then this paper analyses on the reasons for laggard growth in consumption by residents. Such as low income of inhabitants’, expenditure anticipate increasing, imperfect of social security system and consuming circumstance, etc. All these ways are required to push the development of consuming market and economy.
重庆市直辖以来,经济发生了跨越式的增长,居民生活水平有了极大改善,消费水平、消费质量不断提高,消费结构也逐渐升级。当前正处于从温饱型向小康型转变的关键时期。居民家庭生活费的支出构成同以往相比发生了很大变化。然而近年来重庆居民消费也出现了低迷徘徊的状况,居民消费呈现出相应的特征,比如消费水平提高,消费率下降、消费倾向下降,消费结构升级等等。重庆市居民消费占GDP的比重逐年降低,2008年已降到十几年来的最低点,可见,经济的飞速发展并未能带来居民消费的同步增长。无论是最终消费率还是居民消费率都呈现下降趋势,可见居民消费在支撑重庆市经济增长的同时也制约着经济的增长。这充分说明了重庆市居民消费需求不足、消费增长乏力、对经济的拉动作用减弱的现状,同时也反映出我市扩大消费需求仍有较大空间,尤其是提高农村居民消费水平。分析重庆市居民消费水平和消费倾向,消费率及消费结构的发展变化,可以为我市的产业结构调整和国民经济发展提供依据,并达到产业结构优化、资源合理配置、个人收入增长,最终不断满足居民日益增长的物质文化生活需要的目的。
本论文首先对选题的背景及意义进行了阐述,对西方学者关于消费问题的主要经济理论和国内学者研究消费函数问题采用的方法及取得的主要成果进行了归纳总结。接着分析了重庆市目前居民消费情况的现状,对重庆市居民消费率、消费增长率、消费倾向及消费结构的发展变化的分析,得出目前重庆市居民消费增长缓慢的结论。接下来本文分析了导致重庆市居民消费增长缓慢的原因:居民收入整体水平较低、增长缓慢;收入分配差距过大;消费者支出预期增加,社会保障制度不完善;以及一系列非收入影响因素,如消费环境不佳,城镇化水平较低等。在此基础上,提出了增加居民收入、缩小收入差距、提供更多的公共产品、完善社会保障制度、改善供给结构、优化消费环境等政策建议。
Consumption plays a great role in economic growth. According to economic principle, consumption is not only the final stage but also the logistic start in the life cycle of social production. Since our country carry the policy of reforming its economic system and opening to outside world, the economy growths with a high rate. Consumption is an important factor affecting economic development. On this background, consumption is not only the result of economic growth, but also the prerequisite of it.
After the ascending as municipality in 1997, the economy of Chongqing has grown with high-speed; consumption level has grown quickly,the quality of consumption has been improved consistently,and the consumption structure has been optimized unceasingly. Our country is in the critical period from having only adequate food and clothing to leading a well-off life. Composition of living expenditures for consumption has changed a lot. However, Chongqing residents’consumption has a downward trend last years. In 2008, the ratio of consumption to gdp of Chongqing fell into the lowest. Resident consumption not only can promote economic growth but also can restrict economic growth. So the study of Chongqing residents’consumption can lay basis for the city’s industry construction and national economy, promote people’s income and living conditions.
This article will first introduce a brief background on the issue of the research,then elaborate the major economic theories on consumption of the West which plays a guiding role to the policies on economy of various counties. It also summarizes the domestic scholars’methods and main achievement on this research. Then it analyses the current situation of consumption for Chongqing residents and make a conclusion. Then this paper analyses on the reasons for laggard growth in consumption by residents. Such as low income of inhabitants’, expenditure anticipate increasing, imperfect of social security system and consuming circumstance, etc. All these ways are required to push the development of consuming market and economy.
引文
安格斯,迪顿著,胡景北,鲁昌译. 2003.理解消费[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社.
安格斯,迪顿著. 2003.理解消费[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社.
杜伟. 2009.制约我国居民消费增长的因素及对策[J].洛阳理工学院学报(社会科学版).
范剑平. 2000.居民消费与中国经济发展[M].北京:中国计划出版社.54-57.
范剑平. 2000.我国城乡居民消费结构的变化趋势[J].宏观经济研究,6:32-35.
高伶. 2002.我国居民消费需求增长缓慢的主要因素分析[J].经济师,5:102-104.
高荣升. 2003.中国城镇居民消费行为与特征研究[D].武汉理工大学.
郭友群. 2004.关于提高我国消费率的思考[J].经济问题,10:65-67.
韩立岩. 2000.收入——消费关系分段的模糊分析[J].经济与管理研究,8:16-22.
姜德波. 2000.江苏省城乡居民边际消费倾向分析[J].消费经济,5:30-32.
凯恩斯. 1983.就业利息与货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆.
林白鹏. .1993.中国消费结构和产业结构关联研究[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社.
李焰. 1999.关于利率与我国居民储蓄关系的探讨[J].经济研究,11:39-47.
厉以宁. 1999.中国宏观经济的实证分析[M].北京:北京大学出版社.
刘世彦. 2001.居民消费与经济增长的关系的分析[J].内蒙古统计,4:56-58.
罗云毅. 2004.关于消费率调控的政策有效性分析[J].财政研究,8:7-13.
卢嘉瑞. 2007.提高居民消费率:扩大消费需求的重中之重[J].消费经济,6:33-35.
马克思,恩格斯. 1972.马克思恩格斯选集第2卷[M].北京:人民出版社.
马克思. 1975.剩余价值学说史第1卷[M].北京:人民出版社.
马敏娜. 2001.我国居民收入差距扩大对消费需求的影响[J].当代经济研究,1:34-35.
钱纳里等. 1988.发展的型式(1950-1970) [M].北京:经济科学出版社.
宋承先. 1997.现代西方经济学[M].上海:复旦大学出版社.
万广华. 2001.流动性约束、不确定性与中国居民消费[J].经济研究,11:39-47.
吴先满. 2004.城乡居民收入增长研究——来自江苏的报告.北京:经济科学出版社, 135-136.
吴承业,陈燕武,王恒. 2004.福建省最终消费与经济增长的关系研究[J].消费经济,1-2.
万金发. 2005.北京市城镇居民消费结构研究[D].哈尔滨工程大学,2-7.
吴先满,蔡笑,徐春铭. 2007.中外消费对经济增长拉动作用的比较研究[J].世界经济与政治论坛, 119-124.
薛求知等. 2003.行为经济学[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,16-339.
余咏梅. 2003.重庆市城乡居民消费倾向分析[J].重庆社会科学,3.
姚勇,董利. 2003.中国城镇居民消费需求分析[J].统计研究,31-34.
袁小平,梁劲,石红. 2006.重庆市居民消费行为与消费结构探讨[M].区域经济,6-8.
臧旭恒. 1994.中国消费函数分析[M].上海:上海人民出版社, 188-229.
张东刚. 1997.总需求的变动趋势与近代中国经济发展.高等教育出版社,52-53.
张东刚. 2001.消费需求的变动与近代中日经济增长[J].北京:人民出版社,300-351.
朱锡平,唐英. 2004.我国的消费指标分析[J].当代财经,12-16.
张晗. 2006.山东省城镇居民消费结构变化趋势分析[D].山东大学,7-11.
张颖熙,柳欣. 2009.刺激国内消费需求增长的财政政策效应分析[J].财经科学,13-16.
Arundel K.2000.Controlled and automatic human information processing [M].Psych.Rev. x,127-190.
Cheng Hsiao.1986. Analysis of Panel Data[M].Cambridge University Press. ]ardanoni.Valentino.Precautionary.1991.SavingUnder Income Uncertainty: A Cross-Sectional Analysis [J]. Applied Economics, 153-160.
Deaton A. and J.Muellbauer.1980..Economics and consumer behavior [J].Cambridge University Press.1.
Grossman.S.Miller.M.1988. Liquidity and Market Structure [J]. Journal of Finance, 617-637. Krueger.Dirk.Fabrizio Perri.Dose.2002.Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality? Evidence and Theory [J].NBER Working Paper.
L.R.Klein and Heroin. 1949.A Constant-Utility Index of Cost of Living. Review of Economic Studies.
R.Stone. 1954.Linear Expenditure System and Demand Analysis: An Application to the Pattern of British Demand [J].Economic Journal, 64.
Roger Lowenstein. 2001. Exuberance Is Rational [J]. Sunday New York Times,12-13.
Zeldes.Stephenp. 1989.Optional Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deriations from Certainty Equivalence [J].Quarterly Journals of Economics, 275-298.
安格斯,迪顿著. 2003.理解消费[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社.
杜伟. 2009.制约我国居民消费增长的因素及对策[J].洛阳理工学院学报(社会科学版).
范剑平. 2000.居民消费与中国经济发展[M].北京:中国计划出版社.54-57.
范剑平. 2000.我国城乡居民消费结构的变化趋势[J].宏观经济研究,6:32-35.
高伶. 2002.我国居民消费需求增长缓慢的主要因素分析[J].经济师,5:102-104.
高荣升. 2003.中国城镇居民消费行为与特征研究[D].武汉理工大学.
郭友群. 2004.关于提高我国消费率的思考[J].经济问题,10:65-67.
韩立岩. 2000.收入——消费关系分段的模糊分析[J].经济与管理研究,8:16-22.
姜德波. 2000.江苏省城乡居民边际消费倾向分析[J].消费经济,5:30-32.
凯恩斯. 1983.就业利息与货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆.
林白鹏. .1993.中国消费结构和产业结构关联研究[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社.
李焰. 1999.关于利率与我国居民储蓄关系的探讨[J].经济研究,11:39-47.
厉以宁. 1999.中国宏观经济的实证分析[M].北京:北京大学出版社.
刘世彦. 2001.居民消费与经济增长的关系的分析[J].内蒙古统计,4:56-58.
罗云毅. 2004.关于消费率调控的政策有效性分析[J].财政研究,8:7-13.
卢嘉瑞. 2007.提高居民消费率:扩大消费需求的重中之重[J].消费经济,6:33-35.
马克思,恩格斯. 1972.马克思恩格斯选集第2卷[M].北京:人民出版社.
马克思. 1975.剩余价值学说史第1卷[M].北京:人民出版社.
马敏娜. 2001.我国居民收入差距扩大对消费需求的影响[J].当代经济研究,1:34-35.
钱纳里等. 1988.发展的型式(1950-1970) [M].北京:经济科学出版社.
宋承先. 1997.现代西方经济学[M].上海:复旦大学出版社.
万广华. 2001.流动性约束、不确定性与中国居民消费[J].经济研究,11:39-47.
吴先满. 2004.城乡居民收入增长研究——来自江苏的报告.北京:经济科学出版社, 135-136.
吴承业,陈燕武,王恒. 2004.福建省最终消费与经济增长的关系研究[J].消费经济,1-2.
万金发. 2005.北京市城镇居民消费结构研究[D].哈尔滨工程大学,2-7.
吴先满,蔡笑,徐春铭. 2007.中外消费对经济增长拉动作用的比较研究[J].世界经济与政治论坛, 119-124.
薛求知等. 2003.行为经济学[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,16-339.
余咏梅. 2003.重庆市城乡居民消费倾向分析[J].重庆社会科学,3.
姚勇,董利. 2003.中国城镇居民消费需求分析[J].统计研究,31-34.
袁小平,梁劲,石红. 2006.重庆市居民消费行为与消费结构探讨[M].区域经济,6-8.
臧旭恒. 1994.中国消费函数分析[M].上海:上海人民出版社, 188-229.
张东刚. 1997.总需求的变动趋势与近代中国经济发展.高等教育出版社,52-53.
张东刚. 2001.消费需求的变动与近代中日经济增长[J].北京:人民出版社,300-351.
朱锡平,唐英. 2004.我国的消费指标分析[J].当代财经,12-16.
张晗. 2006.山东省城镇居民消费结构变化趋势分析[D].山东大学,7-11.
张颖熙,柳欣. 2009.刺激国内消费需求增长的财政政策效应分析[J].财经科学,13-16.
Arundel K.2000.Controlled and automatic human information processing [M].Psych.Rev. x,127-190.
Cheng Hsiao.1986. Analysis of Panel Data[M].Cambridge University Press. ]ardanoni.Valentino.Precautionary.1991.SavingUnder Income Uncertainty: A Cross-Sectional Analysis [J]. Applied Economics, 153-160.
Deaton A. and J.Muellbauer.1980..Economics and consumer behavior [J].Cambridge University Press.1.
Grossman.S.Miller.M.1988. Liquidity and Market Structure [J]. Journal of Finance, 617-637. Krueger.Dirk.Fabrizio Perri.Dose.2002.Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality? Evidence and Theory [J].NBER Working Paper.
L.R.Klein and Heroin. 1949.A Constant-Utility Index of Cost of Living. Review of Economic Studies.
R.Stone. 1954.Linear Expenditure System and Demand Analysis: An Application to the Pattern of British Demand [J].Economic Journal, 64.
Roger Lowenstein. 2001. Exuberance Is Rational [J]. Sunday New York Times,12-13.
Zeldes.Stephenp. 1989.Optional Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deriations from Certainty Equivalence [J].Quarterly Journals of Economics, 275-298.