房地产供应链成本构成及对房价的推动机理研究
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摘要
持续暴涨的房价,无疑是近年来最受全社会关注、攸关经济民生的重大问题。对于房价问题的研究,人们首先归结于高额的地价、沉重的税负等,事实上,推高房价的不仅是计入房地产开发成本中的显性支出,还包括房地产供应链上由于各个节点之间错综复杂的利益关系及利益分配不均带来的高额交易成本和其它隐形成本。甚至,促使这些交易或隐形成本产生的机制才是推动房价上涨的动因。本文立足于房地产供应链视角,在对我国房地产供应链结构及特点分析的基础上,以供应链成本研究为出发点,辨别我国房地产供应链运行中产生的大量显性和隐性成本,分析成本动因对供应链成本及房价的推动机理,最终建立房地产供应链成本控制机制。研究的理论意义在于从供应链视角,为房地产供应链成本管理和房价控制设计一个新的理论框架,同时,为优化房地产供应链结构、促进各主体间的信任与合作,减少成本溢出、控制房价、提高供应链顾客价值提供有益的分析途径和方法。
本文在参考大量的文献资料的基础上,首先,对我国房地产供应链结构及特点进行分析：基于商品物流理论,建立了由实物链、资金链和信息链组成的我国房地产供应链网络模型,分析了房地产供应链各个环节中物资、资金和信息的流动状态,探讨房地产供应链不同于其它产业的特点。其次,研究了我国房地产供应链成本构成并进行聚类分析：在房地产供应链成本属性及结构体系的分析框架之上,建立成本构成的四维结构。第一维按照成本发生的维度分为生产维度和关系维度成本；第二维按照成本要素属性分为人力、资产、物力、自然资源、运输、时间、信息成本等类型,第三维按照成本流动的载体分为物流、资金流和信息流成本,最后按照成本发生的阶段分为投入方、生产方、流通方和消费方成本。分析房地产供应链核心流程,按其工作结构分析所产生的成本项目,对成本按照不同属性和阶段进行归类,建立房地产供应链成本聚类结构。第三,研究了房地产供应链成本动因及对供应链成本和房价的推动机理：在明确房地产供应链成本与房地产价格之间密切关系的前提下,找出各个阶段影响成本的动因,在成本动因和房地产价格之间建立因果回路图模型,通过形成的各种反馈回路,将影响房地产供应链成本及房价的关键动因集中到5个方面：①金融机构的影响；②地方政府的影响；③供应链其他合作伙伴的影响；④开发商联盟的影响；⑤消费者投资投机的影响。针对以上5个方面,分别采用因果回路图、现实分析和博弈分析的方式,递进论证5类成本动因对房地产供应链成本及房价的影响机理。第四,对房地产供应链关键成本动因与房价之间的关系进行实证分析,应用计量经济学中的协整检验以及一元回归模型,选取我国房地产供应链中的主要成本动因：土地价格、土地出让金占地方财政收入比例、房地产企业获得的银行贷款、基准贷款利率、百强房地产企业产值占房地产企业全部产值比例及房地产投机度进行实证分析,检验证明了房地产企业获得的银行贷款对房地产价格的影响作用最强,其次是土地价格、土地出让金占地方财政收入的比例和人民币基准利率,反映房地产市场投资投机现象的投机度与房地产价格变化之间保持形似的变化趋势,房地产行业百强企业的市场份额对房地产价格有很强的促进作用。最后,进行了房地产供应链成本控制机制研究：结合房地产供应链运行中存在的问题,提出对房地产供应链成本控制机制设计的原则和思路,根据房地产供应链所处的环境以及供应链自身特点,从房地产供应链外部制度建设和内部机制建设两个方面加以完善,提出控制房地产供应链成本从而降低房价和提高顾客价值的具体措施。
Increase of real estate price undoubtedly has become a hot topic in recent years which caused great attentions from the whole society and has a significant impact on economy and people's livelihood. As for the study of real estate price, people are inclined to ascribe the high Housing price to high land prices, heavy tax burden, etc. In fact, the factors that cause real estate price to rise is not only includes explicit expenditures reckoned in the real estate development costs, but also includes the high transaction costs of real estate supply chain due to the intricate interests between each node and the uneven distribution of benefits and other invisible costs. What's more, the mechanism that produces transaction costs and invisible costs is the driver that leads to the rises in real estate prices.
Based on the perspective of the real estate supply chain, in the basis of analysis of the structure and characteristics of real estate supply chain in China, starting with supply chain costs, this paper identifies a large number of explicit and implicit costs generated in the real estate supply chain operation in China and analyses the driving mechanism between cost drivers and supply chain cost as well as real estate price and finally establishes the real estate supply chain cost control mechanism. The theoretical significance of the study is that this paper proposes a supply chain view to design a new theoretical framework for real estate supply chain cost management and real estate price control. Meanwhile, this paper also provides a useful analytical approach and method to optimize the real estate supply chain structure, promote trust and cooperation between different subjects, reduce cost overflow, control real estate price and improve customer value of the supply chain.
Based on the reference to a mass of literature, this paper first analyses the structure and characteristic of real estate supply chain in China. On the baisis of commodity logistics theory, the paper establishes a supply chain network model of real estate in China based on the physical chain, capital chain and information chain and analyses the real estate supply chain of goods, capital and information flow state in each link and also discuss the features of real estate supply chain, which makes it different from other industies.
Second, this paper studies the supply chain cost structure of real estate in China by using cluster analysis:establishing the four-dimensional structure of the cost structure based on the properties and structural system of real estate supply chain cost analytical framework. The first dimension is divided by the dimension of cost ocurred into cost of production dimension and relationship dimension. The second dimension is divided by cost element attributes into the costs of manpower, assets, materials, natural resources, transportation, time, information costs, etc. The third dimension is divided by cost flow carrier into the cost of material flow, capital flow and information flow and finally being divided into input side cost, the production side cost, circulation side cost and consumer side cost according to the cost stage. By analysing real estate core processes of the supply chain, this paper classified the cost in accordance with the different attributes and stages based on cost items produced by the working structure analysis, and establishes the real estate supply chain cost clustering structure.
Third, this paper studies the real estate supply chain cost drivers and driving mechanism to supply chain costs and real estate price:Having a clear understanding of the close relationship between real estate supply chain costs and real estate prices, the paper finds out the cost drivers in each stage and establishes a cause-effect diagram model between cost drivers and real estate prices. Through the formation of a variety of feedback loops, the key drivers that affect the real estate supply chain costs and prices is focus on five aspects:(1) the impact of the financial institutions;(2) the impact of local government;(3) the impact of supply chain partners;(4) the impact of developer Union;(5) the impact of consumer investment speculation. In view of the above five aspects, the paper progressively demonstrates the influencing mechanism of five kinds of cost drivers to real estate supply chain cost and real estate price by means of cause-effect diagram, realistic analysis and game analysis.
Fourth, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the realationship between real estate key drivers of SCC and real estate price and applies co-integration test and linear regression model in econometrics to the selection of the main supply chain cost drivers of real estate in China. Based on the empirical analysis of land price, the proportion of land concession expense land to local financial revenue, bank loans obtained by real estate enterprises, benchmark lending rate, the proportion of the Top100real estate enterprises output value to all the output value of real estate enterprises and real estate speculation degree, this paper discoveries that bank loans obtained by real estate enterprises has the strongest effect on the real estate price, followed by land price, the proportion of land concession expense land to local financial revenue and benchmark lending rate. The results show that the speculative degree, which reflects the investment speculation phenomenon in the real estate market, has a positive relationship on real estate price. Besides, the market share of Top100real estate enterprises output value has a strong influence in promoting real estate price.
Finally, this paper studies the real estate supply chain cost control mechanism. Combined with the problems in the real estate supply chain operation, the paper proposes design principles and ideas of the real estate supply chain cost control mechanisms. Based on the environment of the real estate supply chain and its characteristics, the paper improves the real estate supply chain management from external system construction and internal mechanism construction and proposes specific measures to control the cost of real estate supply chain and thus lower real estate price and improve customer value.
本文在参考大量的文献资料的基础上,首先,对我国房地产供应链结构及特点进行分析：基于商品物流理论,建立了由实物链、资金链和信息链组成的我国房地产供应链网络模型,分析了房地产供应链各个环节中物资、资金和信息的流动状态,探讨房地产供应链不同于其它产业的特点。其次,研究了我国房地产供应链成本构成并进行聚类分析：在房地产供应链成本属性及结构体系的分析框架之上,建立成本构成的四维结构。第一维按照成本发生的维度分为生产维度和关系维度成本；第二维按照成本要素属性分为人力、资产、物力、自然资源、运输、时间、信息成本等类型,第三维按照成本流动的载体分为物流、资金流和信息流成本,最后按照成本发生的阶段分为投入方、生产方、流通方和消费方成本。分析房地产供应链核心流程,按其工作结构分析所产生的成本项目,对成本按照不同属性和阶段进行归类,建立房地产供应链成本聚类结构。第三,研究了房地产供应链成本动因及对供应链成本和房价的推动机理：在明确房地产供应链成本与房地产价格之间密切关系的前提下,找出各个阶段影响成本的动因,在成本动因和房地产价格之间建立因果回路图模型,通过形成的各种反馈回路,将影响房地产供应链成本及房价的关键动因集中到5个方面：①金融机构的影响；②地方政府的影响；③供应链其他合作伙伴的影响；④开发商联盟的影响；⑤消费者投资投机的影响。针对以上5个方面,分别采用因果回路图、现实分析和博弈分析的方式,递进论证5类成本动因对房地产供应链成本及房价的影响机理。第四,对房地产供应链关键成本动因与房价之间的关系进行实证分析,应用计量经济学中的协整检验以及一元回归模型,选取我国房地产供应链中的主要成本动因：土地价格、土地出让金占地方财政收入比例、房地产企业获得的银行贷款、基准贷款利率、百强房地产企业产值占房地产企业全部产值比例及房地产投机度进行实证分析,检验证明了房地产企业获得的银行贷款对房地产价格的影响作用最强,其次是土地价格、土地出让金占地方财政收入的比例和人民币基准利率,反映房地产市场投资投机现象的投机度与房地产价格变化之间保持形似的变化趋势,房地产行业百强企业的市场份额对房地产价格有很强的促进作用。最后,进行了房地产供应链成本控制机制研究：结合房地产供应链运行中存在的问题,提出对房地产供应链成本控制机制设计的原则和思路,根据房地产供应链所处的环境以及供应链自身特点,从房地产供应链外部制度建设和内部机制建设两个方面加以完善,提出控制房地产供应链成本从而降低房价和提高顾客价值的具体措施。
Increase of real estate price undoubtedly has become a hot topic in recent years which caused great attentions from the whole society and has a significant impact on economy and people's livelihood. As for the study of real estate price, people are inclined to ascribe the high Housing price to high land prices, heavy tax burden, etc. In fact, the factors that cause real estate price to rise is not only includes explicit expenditures reckoned in the real estate development costs, but also includes the high transaction costs of real estate supply chain due to the intricate interests between each node and the uneven distribution of benefits and other invisible costs. What's more, the mechanism that produces transaction costs and invisible costs is the driver that leads to the rises in real estate prices.
Based on the perspective of the real estate supply chain, in the basis of analysis of the structure and characteristics of real estate supply chain in China, starting with supply chain costs, this paper identifies a large number of explicit and implicit costs generated in the real estate supply chain operation in China and analyses the driving mechanism between cost drivers and supply chain cost as well as real estate price and finally establishes the real estate supply chain cost control mechanism. The theoretical significance of the study is that this paper proposes a supply chain view to design a new theoretical framework for real estate supply chain cost management and real estate price control. Meanwhile, this paper also provides a useful analytical approach and method to optimize the real estate supply chain structure, promote trust and cooperation between different subjects, reduce cost overflow, control real estate price and improve customer value of the supply chain.
Based on the reference to a mass of literature, this paper first analyses the structure and characteristic of real estate supply chain in China. On the baisis of commodity logistics theory, the paper establishes a supply chain network model of real estate in China based on the physical chain, capital chain and information chain and analyses the real estate supply chain of goods, capital and information flow state in each link and also discuss the features of real estate supply chain, which makes it different from other industies.
Second, this paper studies the supply chain cost structure of real estate in China by using cluster analysis:establishing the four-dimensional structure of the cost structure based on the properties and structural system of real estate supply chain cost analytical framework. The first dimension is divided by the dimension of cost ocurred into cost of production dimension and relationship dimension. The second dimension is divided by cost element attributes into the costs of manpower, assets, materials, natural resources, transportation, time, information costs, etc. The third dimension is divided by cost flow carrier into the cost of material flow, capital flow and information flow and finally being divided into input side cost, the production side cost, circulation side cost and consumer side cost according to the cost stage. By analysing real estate core processes of the supply chain, this paper classified the cost in accordance with the different attributes and stages based on cost items produced by the working structure analysis, and establishes the real estate supply chain cost clustering structure.
Third, this paper studies the real estate supply chain cost drivers and driving mechanism to supply chain costs and real estate price:Having a clear understanding of the close relationship between real estate supply chain costs and real estate prices, the paper finds out the cost drivers in each stage and establishes a cause-effect diagram model between cost drivers and real estate prices. Through the formation of a variety of feedback loops, the key drivers that affect the real estate supply chain costs and prices is focus on five aspects:(1) the impact of the financial institutions;(2) the impact of local government;(3) the impact of supply chain partners;(4) the impact of developer Union;(5) the impact of consumer investment speculation. In view of the above five aspects, the paper progressively demonstrates the influencing mechanism of five kinds of cost drivers to real estate supply chain cost and real estate price by means of cause-effect diagram, realistic analysis and game analysis.
Fourth, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the realationship between real estate key drivers of SCC and real estate price and applies co-integration test and linear regression model in econometrics to the selection of the main supply chain cost drivers of real estate in China. Based on the empirical analysis of land price, the proportion of land concession expense land to local financial revenue, bank loans obtained by real estate enterprises, benchmark lending rate, the proportion of the Top100real estate enterprises output value to all the output value of real estate enterprises and real estate speculation degree, this paper discoveries that bank loans obtained by real estate enterprises has the strongest effect on the real estate price, followed by land price, the proportion of land concession expense land to local financial revenue and benchmark lending rate. The results show that the speculative degree, which reflects the investment speculation phenomenon in the real estate market, has a positive relationship on real estate price. Besides, the market share of Top100real estate enterprises output value has a strong influence in promoting real estate price.
Finally, this paper studies the real estate supply chain cost control mechanism. Combined with the problems in the real estate supply chain operation, the paper proposes design principles and ideas of the real estate supply chain cost control mechanisms. Based on the environment of the real estate supply chain and its characteristics, the paper improves the real estate supply chain management from external system construction and internal mechanism construction and proposes specific measures to control the cost of real estate supply chain and thus lower real estate price and improve customer value.
引文
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