美国次贷危机对全球经济的影响研究
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摘要
2007年,美国爆发了次贷危机,并且愈演愈烈,美国的次贷危机不仅对美国房地产市场和金融市场产生很大影响,同时也对美国的实体经济和全球金融体系带来挑战,并殃及到全球经济。美国次贷危机造成了美国、欧盟以及新兴市场国家的经济成长放缓并伴随全球性的通货膨胀,对世界经济未来几年的发展前景形成了深远的影响。深入地分析美国次贷危机的形成机理及其对世界各国的经济影响,对中国从中汲取教训,进一步完善金融体制,推动中国经济更加平稳的运行具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
     本文在深入探讨了美国次贷危机爆发的深层原因和表层原因的基础上,全面分析了美国次贷危机对美国经济、欧盟经济和日本经济的影响,并重点分析了美国次贷危机对中国的金融业、对外贸经济和房地产行业的影响。最后,在总结了世界发达经济体应对美国次贷危机的政策措施和效果的基础上,提出了中国应对美国次贷危机的对策建议。
In April 2007, the American new century financial applied for bankruptcy and indicates the American sub-prime crisis was erupted. In the past two years the sub-prime crisis more and more intensity from a single country, single market, single business, financial events were promptly to the global financial markets, the economy entity, educed financial unrest and the global economy has been impact. China was the largest developing country in the world, as the economic and financial globalization the economic system, more and more important, and in a large background the sub-prime crisis erupt led to the global recession, China's economic development can not be immune. Therefore, to the depth discuss by the meaning of the American sub-prime crisis, produce the background, mechanism, process, and the reason for the outbreak, to completed analysis the impact of the sub-prime crisis on the global economic , investigation the world's major developed economies cope with the sub-prime crisis, policy measures and effects, accurate grasp and coping to the sub-prime crisis has brought new challenges, holding the new opportunities in the sub-prime crisis and to accelerate China's economic development has a positive theoretical and practical significance, at the same time it can help us to sum up experience and lessons learn and improve China's financial system, to avoid financial risks, the Chinese economy to be more stable operation.
     This paper in deep discuss the American sub-prime crisis erupt the top layer and deep layer causes of the basement, completed analysis the impact of the sub-prime crisis on the American economy, the European Union economy and the Japanese economy, to point of analysis the sub-prime crisis financial industry in China , the economy on foreign trade and real estate business. Finally, in sum up the world developing economies cope with the sub-prime crisis and the effects of policy measures proposed on the basis of China's response to the sub-prime crisis countermeasure and proposal.
     In this paper, the American sub-prime crisis in the meaning and cause of the outbreak of the study start, first it was described in sub-prime crisis in background, mechanism and process, followed by focus analysis of the sub-prime crisis caused by the rapid development and the causes and underlying causes of the surface. This paper believe that the sub-prime crisis, the surface is due to the housing market downturn, buyers financing difficulties, the government has been raising interest rates, the repayment burden on home buyers, mortgage risk led to the proliferation of financial innovations and lending institutions to reduce loan terms blind and other causes; but the underlying reason is that the real economy and the long-term imbalanced in the financial sector and ultimately associated with the mortgage crisis in the form of the financial sector exploded, its essence released into the asset price bubble burst in a serious crisis in the financial sector .
     The American sub-prime crisis broke out, not only for the American housing market and significant impact on financial market, but also on the American real economy and the global financial system challenges, and bring disaster to the global economy, the world economy will in several years the development prospects of the formation of far-reaching impact. The main behavior impact of the American economy is that, first; he American financial market was serious frustration. Second, negative growth of industrial production is now repeated, corporate profits and taxes volatile. Third, service sector contracted for the first time in nearly five years. Forth, consumer credit crunch turn into contraction.
     The American sub-prime mortgage crisis has been e full impact of the EU economy, first, resulting in the EU economy into a recession; Second, the EU appears the credit crunch; third, the EU economy of internal contradiction. At the same time, because the Japanese economy is heavily dependent on overseas markets, in the global economic slowdown, especially the United States subprime mortgage crisis occurred against the backdrop of Japan's economy has suffered a huge influence, as follow: first, Japan's stock market slump; second, substantial decline in exports; third, the real estate market suffered a serious setback.
     China accession to the WTO, China was opening up the increase in the proportion of the American exports continue to increase, In addition, as China's capital market is large in scale, form, and so many reasons, resulting in the extent of China was integration into economic globalization, more and more deep economic ties grow closer. The American sub-prime crisis on China’s influence include in the financial sector, resulting in China’s financial institutions to hold the American bonds fell sharply, the state foreign currency reserve assets of security is threatened, the passive appreciation of yuan, the macro-control more difficult, the stock market and capital market increasing risk; in the field of foreign trade led to China’s foreign trade increased bad debt losses, export growth slowed down; in real estate led to China’s real estate market downturn, fall in real estate investment power.
     This paper from financial assistance, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, to implementation of a variety of industries, the promotion of measures set out in the development economics, the international response to the sub-prime crisis response, and to evaluate its effect. Finally, from the finance, foreign trade and the promotion of domestic demand, proposed by China's response to the sub-prime crisis countermeasures and proposals. First of all, the financial sector to take up with a budding monetary policy, formulate a scientific and prudent monetary policy and strengthen the yuan's international status; banks to improve risk prevention awareness, the purposes of diversification of bank credit assets structure; financial supervisory departments should improve their own institutions construction, strengthen the international financial regulatory strength. Second, foreign trade and improve the foreign investment to establish the risk of early warning, risk monitoring and risk prevention mechanism, from the expansion of export markets, the adjustment of product structure, strengthen trade in services, to adjust the production in various area such as transaction costs, the promotion of exports. Finally, we should close to monitor the international and domestic economic situation, expanding domestic demands as means to promote economic growth, good macro-control, and good long-term strategic asset allocation, based on the economic long-term, stable development. Only in this way China has in crisis be invincible.
引文
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    [11]同上.
    [12]同上.
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    [47]数据来源:国家海关总署统计公布.
    [48]同上.
    [49]数据来源:中国统计内部信息网,www.10.6.28.54.
    [50]同上.
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    [54]数据来源:美联储统计公布数据.
    [55]数据来源:何帆.世界主要发达经济体应对金融危机的措施及其效果评述[J].2009(4),82-87.
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