云南民族贫困地区农户储蓄行为研究
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摘要
储蓄是发展资金的主要来源,恰当的储蓄率是经济起飞的必要保证,对此理论界已多有研究,但云南民族贫困地区的农户储蓄有其特殊性。本研究在统计分析和实地调研的基础上,对云南民族贫困地区的储蓄水平做出了自己的判断,深入分析了该地区农户储蓄行为的特征及其影响因素,并初步探讨了云南民族贫困地区最优储蓄率的理论实现方法。最后,本文还给出了促进云南民族贫困地区农户储蓄水平的政策建议。
本文在采用了传统经济学的规范和实证、定性和定量、历史与逻辑方法的同时,侧重比较和计量的分析,建模,一般和特殊的分析方法来开展研究。研究的主要创新点有几个:(1)首次对一个特殊的地区和人群——云南省民族贫困地区的农户——的储蓄行为采用经济学方法进行了系统研究;(2)对云南民族贫困地区储蓄率水平及其合理性做出了自己的判断;(3)探索了优化储蓄消费比例的方法;(4)对云南民族贫困地区农户储蓄的行为特征和影响因素进行了分析;(5)对主流贫困经济学家舒尔茨关于贫困小农低储蓄率的原因给出了新的解释;(6)对当前储蓄政策在云南民族贫困地区的适用性进行了重新审视:(7)给出了与主流观点和当前政策基调相反的政策建议。
主要结论如下:(1)云南民族贫困地区的农户储蓄率偏低,对当地经济发展不利;(2)该地区农户具有与一般地区不同的储蓄行为特征;(3)造成当地储蓄率是偏低的主要原因是低收入和与民族风俗联系密切的消费习惯;(4)舒尔茨对传统小农储蓄水平较低的解释与云南民族贫困地区农户的储蓄行为特征不符,因而其理论观点在上述地区的适用性值得怀疑;(5)在上述地区鼓励消费的政策是不合适的,鼓励储蓄和投资才是当地经济发展和收入水平提高的希望所在。
Savings is the main source of economic development, appropriate savings rate is necessary to ensure the economic increase, the theorists have done many researches accordingly, but in poverty area farmers’savings of Yunnan nationality has its particularity. The writer made his own judgments about the savings level of Yunnan nationality farmers in poverty area bases on the statistical analysis and field research, profoundly analyzed the character and affecting factors of the savings behavior and briefly discussed the implementation theory of optimal savings rate in this area. Finally, this article also gives some policy suggestions of promoting savings level of Yunnan nationality farmers in poverty area.
In this article, norms & demonstration, qualitative & quota, history & logic of traditional economics are used, at the same time, analysis focus on comparison and measurement, modeling, common and especial analysis theory are applied to the researches. The main innovations of the research are as follow: (1) Research systemically on the savings behavior of a particular area and publics - Yunnan nationality farmers in poverty area - by using the method of economics for the first time; (2) Made the own rational judgments on savings level rate and its rationality in this area; (3) Explored the optimal methods of savings and consumption ratio; (4) Analyzed of ethnic savings behavior characteristics and savings factors of Yunnan nationality farmers in poverty area; (5) Mainstream economist Schultz gave new explanation on the reason of poverty farmers’low savings rate; (6) Re-examined the applicability of the current nationality savings policy in Yunnan poverty areas;(7) Gave the opposite policy recommendations with the mainstream standpoint s and the current policy.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Low savings rate of farmers in Yunnan poverty areas is detrimental to local economic development; (2) This area has different savings behavior characteristic to other areas; (3) Low savings rate is mainly due to low-income and consumption habits which close to ethnic customs; (4) Schultz’s explanation of traditional low savings rate doesn’t match to the savings behavior characteristics of Yunnan nationality farmers in poverty area, Thus applicability of his theoretical standpoints in the above areas is doubtful;(5) Policy of encouraging consumption is not appropriate in the area above, encouragement of savings and investment is the right way to developing local economic and income level.
本文在采用了传统经济学的规范和实证、定性和定量、历史与逻辑方法的同时,侧重比较和计量的分析,建模,一般和特殊的分析方法来开展研究。研究的主要创新点有几个:(1)首次对一个特殊的地区和人群——云南省民族贫困地区的农户——的储蓄行为采用经济学方法进行了系统研究;(2)对云南民族贫困地区储蓄率水平及其合理性做出了自己的判断;(3)探索了优化储蓄消费比例的方法;(4)对云南民族贫困地区农户储蓄的行为特征和影响因素进行了分析;(5)对主流贫困经济学家舒尔茨关于贫困小农低储蓄率的原因给出了新的解释;(6)对当前储蓄政策在云南民族贫困地区的适用性进行了重新审视:(7)给出了与主流观点和当前政策基调相反的政策建议。
主要结论如下:(1)云南民族贫困地区的农户储蓄率偏低,对当地经济发展不利;(2)该地区农户具有与一般地区不同的储蓄行为特征;(3)造成当地储蓄率是偏低的主要原因是低收入和与民族风俗联系密切的消费习惯;(4)舒尔茨对传统小农储蓄水平较低的解释与云南民族贫困地区农户的储蓄行为特征不符,因而其理论观点在上述地区的适用性值得怀疑;(5)在上述地区鼓励消费的政策是不合适的,鼓励储蓄和投资才是当地经济发展和收入水平提高的希望所在。
Savings is the main source of economic development, appropriate savings rate is necessary to ensure the economic increase, the theorists have done many researches accordingly, but in poverty area farmers’savings of Yunnan nationality has its particularity. The writer made his own judgments about the savings level of Yunnan nationality farmers in poverty area bases on the statistical analysis and field research, profoundly analyzed the character and affecting factors of the savings behavior and briefly discussed the implementation theory of optimal savings rate in this area. Finally, this article also gives some policy suggestions of promoting savings level of Yunnan nationality farmers in poverty area.
In this article, norms & demonstration, qualitative & quota, history & logic of traditional economics are used, at the same time, analysis focus on comparison and measurement, modeling, common and especial analysis theory are applied to the researches. The main innovations of the research are as follow: (1) Research systemically on the savings behavior of a particular area and publics - Yunnan nationality farmers in poverty area - by using the method of economics for the first time; (2) Made the own rational judgments on savings level rate and its rationality in this area; (3) Explored the optimal methods of savings and consumption ratio; (4) Analyzed of ethnic savings behavior characteristics and savings factors of Yunnan nationality farmers in poverty area; (5) Mainstream economist Schultz gave new explanation on the reason of poverty farmers’low savings rate; (6) Re-examined the applicability of the current nationality savings policy in Yunnan poverty areas;(7) Gave the opposite policy recommendations with the mainstream standpoint s and the current policy.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Low savings rate of farmers in Yunnan poverty areas is detrimental to local economic development; (2) This area has different savings behavior characteristic to other areas; (3) Low savings rate is mainly due to low-income and consumption habits which close to ethnic customs; (4) Schultz’s explanation of traditional low savings rate doesn’t match to the savings behavior characteristics of Yunnan nationality farmers in poverty area, Thus applicability of his theoretical standpoints in the above areas is doubtful;(5) Policy of encouraging consumption is not appropriate in the area above, encouragement of savings and investment is the right way to developing local economic and income level.
引文
1龙远蔚.中国少数民族经济研究导论,民族出版社,2004.3.第3页
2西奥多W舒尔茨.改造传统农业.商务印书馆,2003.第22页
4引自Deaton. A. Understanding Consumption, Clarendon Press, Oxford,1992
9李竹青、那日:《中国少数民族经济概论》(新编本),第71页,中央民族大学出版社,1998
11余维祥,中国农户积累消费问题研究,第53页,科学出版社,2003年9月
14参见政协怒江自治州委员会文史资料委员会编:《怒江文史资料选辑第一至二十辑摘编》(下卷),第1127页,德宏民族出版社,1994
15郭家骥:《澜沧县木戛区拉祜族经济发展问题研究》,民族学,1998
16云南大学跨世纪云南少数民族调查民族经济专题研究报告:从自然经济向商品经济渐变的云南少数民族村寨经济,2001年4月
20资料来源:中国贫困开发政策演变(1949-2005年),张磊,中国财经出版社,2007.3
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[29]徐秋慧、李秀玉,菲利普斯曲线研究的最新进展.北京:中央财经大学学报,2008.4
[30]史清华、卓建伟,农村居民的储蓄与借贷行为—基于晋鄂豫苏吉5省3年的调查.北京:学习与实践,2007.6
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2西奥多W舒尔茨.改造传统农业.商务印书馆,2003.第22页
4引自Deaton. A. Understanding Consumption, Clarendon Press, Oxford,1992
9李竹青、那日:《中国少数民族经济概论》(新编本),第71页,中央民族大学出版社,1998
11余维祥,中国农户积累消费问题研究,第53页,科学出版社,2003年9月
14参见政协怒江自治州委员会文史资料委员会编:《怒江文史资料选辑第一至二十辑摘编》(下卷),第1127页,德宏民族出版社,1994
15郭家骥:《澜沧县木戛区拉祜族经济发展问题研究》,民族学,1998
16云南大学跨世纪云南少数民族调查民族经济专题研究报告:从自然经济向商品经济渐变的云南少数民族村寨经济,2001年4月
20资料来源:中国贫困开发政策演变(1949-2005年),张磊,中国财经出版社,2007.3
[1]Robert S. Pindyck、Daniel L. Rubinfeld,Microeconomics(第四版).北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007
[2]N.Gregory Mankiw, Macroeconomics(Fifth Edition).北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008
[3]曹和平,中国农户储蓄行为.北京:北京大学出版社,2002
[4] Deaton. A,Understanding Consumption.Clarendon Press , Oxford,1992
[5]西奥多W舒尔茨,改造传统农业.北京:商务印书馆,2003
[6]余维祥,中国农户积累消费问题研究.北京:科学出版社,2003
[7]岳希明、李实、王萍萍、关冰,透视中国农村贫困.北京:经济科学出版社,2007
[8]贺菊煌,消费函数分析.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2001
[9]雷海章,现代农业经济学.北京:中国农业出版社,2003
[10]提清二,消费社会批判.北京:经济科学出版社,1998
[11]尹世杰,消费经济学.北京:高等教育出版社,2007
[12] Campbell and Deaton. A ,“Why Is Consumption S o Smooth”, Review of Economic Studies .Review of Economic Studies,1989: 357～373
[13] Gersovitz ,Saving and development Handbook of Development Economics,1988: 381～424
[14] Friedman. M,A theory of the consumption functions .Princeton University Press , Princeton,1957
[15] Paxson .C,Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Saving to Transitory income in Thailand , American Economic Review, 1992: 15～33
[16]贺菊煌,消费函数分析.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2000
[17]孙凤,预防性储蓄理论与中国居民消费行为.天津:南开经济研究,2001.1
[18]孙凤,消费者行为数量研究.上海:上海三联书店,2002
[19]万广华、史清华、汤树梅,转型经济中农户储蓄行为:中国农村的实证研究.北京:经济研究,2003.5
[20]朱信凯,流动性约束、不确定性与中国农户消费行为分析.北京:统计研究,2005.2
[21]陈凯、史清华,欠发达地区农户借贷行为的实证研究研究.北京:农业经济问题,2002.10
[22]李焰,中国居民储蓄行为研究.北京:中国金融出版社,1999
[23]郑凤田,制度变迁与中国农民经济行为.北京:中国农业科技出版社,2000
[24] Abel .A,Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests, American Economic Review,1985:777 - 791
[25]张改清,农户投资与农户经济收入增长的关系研究.北京:中国农业出版社,2005.5
[26]余维祥,中国农户积累消费问题研究.北京:科学出版社,2003.9
[27]李学彦,储蓄过剩理论分析框架的构建.北京:经济学家,2008.3
[28]文魁、李学彦,流动性过剩的机理分析.北京:国际金融,2008.4
[29]徐秋慧、李秀玉,菲利普斯曲线研究的最新进展.北京:中央财经大学学报,2008.4
[30]史清华、卓建伟,农村居民的储蓄与借贷行为—基于晋鄂豫苏吉5省3年的调查.北京:学习与实践,2007.6
[31]周欣、马革、刘钟钦,农户储蓄行为的影响因素实证分析.北京:农业经济,2004.2
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