河南省能源产业结构优化问题研究
|
摘要
改革开放30年来,我国经济快速稳定的发展,人民生活水平也有很大的提高。中国是目前世界上第二位能源生产国和消费国。能源供应持续增长,为经济社会发展提供了重要的支撑。但是,伴随能源消费需求的增加,能源问题已经成为制约发展的瓶颈,能源结构优化日益成为经济发展的关键。
河南作为我国能源开发和消费大省,能源工业也取得了长足发展,总体上实现供求平衡,能源产业结构不断优化,为全省经济的持续快速的发展提供了有力保障。与此同时,我们也看到,能源领域的一些问题仍十分突出,必须高度重视:能源产业结构以煤为主,造成能源利用率低,经济效益差,特别是高耗能行业经济效益差;新能源发展滞后,在河南省能源总消费量中占比很小;能源消费需求不断增长,资源环境约束日益加剧;结构矛盾比较突出,可持续发展面临挑战;农村能源问题突出,能源利用率很低。
本文以产业结构优化理论和可持续发展理论为依据,对河南省过去和未来能源的消费与供给状况进行分析。运用计量经济学ARMA模型,假设未来河南省在保持稳定发展的前提下,预测2015年和2020年河南省能源需求总量分别为30941万吨标准煤、37737万吨标准煤,2015年和2020年河南省能源供给量为14565万吨标准煤、14871万吨标准煤。需求量远远大于供给量。鉴于这种情况,本文结合各个能源产业的差异性以及河南省经济发展、能源禀赋状况,分别对煤炭、石油、天然气、以及新能源做出自己的构想:现阶段到未来的20年之内,河南省能源结构应该以煤炭、石油为基础,不断提高能源的利用率和经济效益;进一步逐步提天然气的利用比例;不断开发、利用新能源,使新能源在能源消费与供给比例中不断提高。
因此,河南省能源产业结构优化应在遵循近期与远期相结合、利用与节约并举、内外兼顾等原则基础上,转变观念,提倡科学合理的能源生方式和消费方式;完善相关法律法规;充分发挥市场资源调节的基础性作用;建立完善的科技支撑体系;最终实现河南省能源结构优化发展。
The reform and open policy for 30 years, our country economy fast stable development, the lives of the people level also has the very big enhancement. China is in the present world the second potential energy source producer country and the expense country. The energy supply continually growth, developed for the economic society has provided the important support. But, the concomitance energy expense demand increase, the energy question already became the restriction development the bottleneck, the energy structure optimized becomes the economical development day by day the key.
Henan develops and expends big province as our country energy, the energy industry has also obtained the considerable development, as a whole realized the balance between supply and demand, the energy structure optimizes unceasingly, continued the fast development for the entire province economy to provide the powerful safeguard. At the same time, we also see, energy domain some questions extremely were still prominent, had to take highly: The energy structure by the coal primarily, creates the energy use factor to be low, the economic efficiency is bad, specially high consumes energy the profession economic efficiency to be bad. The new energy development lag, occupies very slightly compared to in the Henan Province energy total consumption quantity. The energy expense demand grows unceasingly, the resources environment restraint intensifies day by day; Structure contradictory quite prominent, sustainable development faced with challenge; The countryside energy question is prominent, the energy use factor is very low.
This article take the industrial structure optimization theory and the sustainable development theory as the basis, will pass and the future energy expense to Henan Province and the supplies condition carries on the analysis. Using the econometrics ARMA model, the supposition future Henan Province in under the maintenance stable development premise, forecast in 2015 and in 2020 the Henan Province energy demand total quantity respectively is 309,410.000 tons standard coals, 377,370,000 tons standard coals, in 2015 and in 2020 the Henan Province energy supply capacity is 145,650,000 tons standard coals, 148,710,000 tons standard coals. The demand is bigger than the supply capacity by far. In view of the fact that this kind of situation, this article unifies each energy industry the difference as well as the Henan Province economy development, the energy talent condition, separately to the coal, the petroleum, the natural gas, as well as the new energy makes own conception: The present stage to within the future 20 years, the Henan Province energy structure will be supposed take the coal, the petroleum as a foundation, will enhance the energy unceasingly the use factor and the economic efficiency; Further gradually raises the natural gas the use proportion; Develops, uses the new energy unceasingly, causes the new energy enhances unceasingly in the energy expense and the supplies proportion.
Therefore, the Henan Province energy structure will optimize should in the near future and forward developing simultaneously, inside and outside proper attention to both in the deference in principle foundations and so on unifies, uses and saves, the transformation idea, advocated the science reasonable energy will live the way and the expense way; Consummation related law laws and regulations; Full display market resources adjustment foundational function; Establishment perfect science and technology support system; Finally realizes the Henan Province energy structure optimization development.
河南作为我国能源开发和消费大省,能源工业也取得了长足发展,总体上实现供求平衡,能源产业结构不断优化,为全省经济的持续快速的发展提供了有力保障。与此同时,我们也看到,能源领域的一些问题仍十分突出,必须高度重视:能源产业结构以煤为主,造成能源利用率低,经济效益差,特别是高耗能行业经济效益差;新能源发展滞后,在河南省能源总消费量中占比很小;能源消费需求不断增长,资源环境约束日益加剧;结构矛盾比较突出,可持续发展面临挑战;农村能源问题突出,能源利用率很低。
本文以产业结构优化理论和可持续发展理论为依据,对河南省过去和未来能源的消费与供给状况进行分析。运用计量经济学ARMA模型,假设未来河南省在保持稳定发展的前提下,预测2015年和2020年河南省能源需求总量分别为30941万吨标准煤、37737万吨标准煤,2015年和2020年河南省能源供给量为14565万吨标准煤、14871万吨标准煤。需求量远远大于供给量。鉴于这种情况,本文结合各个能源产业的差异性以及河南省经济发展、能源禀赋状况,分别对煤炭、石油、天然气、以及新能源做出自己的构想:现阶段到未来的20年之内,河南省能源结构应该以煤炭、石油为基础,不断提高能源的利用率和经济效益;进一步逐步提天然气的利用比例;不断开发、利用新能源,使新能源在能源消费与供给比例中不断提高。
因此,河南省能源产业结构优化应在遵循近期与远期相结合、利用与节约并举、内外兼顾等原则基础上,转变观念,提倡科学合理的能源生方式和消费方式;完善相关法律法规;充分发挥市场资源调节的基础性作用;建立完善的科技支撑体系;最终实现河南省能源结构优化发展。
The reform and open policy for 30 years, our country economy fast stable development, the lives of the people level also has the very big enhancement. China is in the present world the second potential energy source producer country and the expense country. The energy supply continually growth, developed for the economic society has provided the important support. But, the concomitance energy expense demand increase, the energy question already became the restriction development the bottleneck, the energy structure optimized becomes the economical development day by day the key.
Henan develops and expends big province as our country energy, the energy industry has also obtained the considerable development, as a whole realized the balance between supply and demand, the energy structure optimizes unceasingly, continued the fast development for the entire province economy to provide the powerful safeguard. At the same time, we also see, energy domain some questions extremely were still prominent, had to take highly: The energy structure by the coal primarily, creates the energy use factor to be low, the economic efficiency is bad, specially high consumes energy the profession economic efficiency to be bad. The new energy development lag, occupies very slightly compared to in the Henan Province energy total consumption quantity. The energy expense demand grows unceasingly, the resources environment restraint intensifies day by day; Structure contradictory quite prominent, sustainable development faced with challenge; The countryside energy question is prominent, the energy use factor is very low.
This article take the industrial structure optimization theory and the sustainable development theory as the basis, will pass and the future energy expense to Henan Province and the supplies condition carries on the analysis. Using the econometrics ARMA model, the supposition future Henan Province in under the maintenance stable development premise, forecast in 2015 and in 2020 the Henan Province energy demand total quantity respectively is 309,410.000 tons standard coals, 377,370,000 tons standard coals, in 2015 and in 2020 the Henan Province energy supply capacity is 145,650,000 tons standard coals, 148,710,000 tons standard coals. The demand is bigger than the supply capacity by far. In view of the fact that this kind of situation, this article unifies each energy industry the difference as well as the Henan Province economy development, the energy talent condition, separately to the coal, the petroleum, the natural gas, as well as the new energy makes own conception: The present stage to within the future 20 years, the Henan Province energy structure will be supposed take the coal, the petroleum as a foundation, will enhance the energy unceasingly the use factor and the economic efficiency; Further gradually raises the natural gas the use proportion; Develops, uses the new energy unceasingly, causes the new energy enhances unceasingly in the energy expense and the supplies proportion.
Therefore, the Henan Province energy structure will optimize should in the near future and forward developing simultaneously, inside and outside proper attention to both in the deference in principle foundations and so on unifies, uses and saves, the transformation idea, advocated the science reasonable energy will live the way and the expense way; Consummation related law laws and regulations; Full display market resources adjustment foundational function; Establishment perfect science and technology support system; Finally realizes the Henan Province energy structure optimization development.
引文
[1]苏东水:《产业经济学》,高等教育出版社,2005年版。
[2]刘志迎:《现代产业经济学教程》,科学出版社,2008年版
[1]《河南省国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》,2006年
[1]《河南省国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》,2006年版
[2]陈元:《能源安全与能源发展战略研究》,中国财政经济出版社,2007年版
[1]王家诚、赵志林,《2007中国能源发展报告》,2008年版
[1]史丹:《中国能源效率的地区差异与节能潜力分析》,中国工业经济,2006年版
[1]张希良:《风能开发利用》,化学工业出版社,2005年版
[1]田立新等:《能源经济系统分析》,社会科学文献出版社,2005年版
[1]王家诚、赵志林.2007中国能源发展报告[M].2008
[2]中国统计局.中国统计年鉴(2008)[D]
[3]牛文元.2000年中国可持续发展战略报告[M].科学出版社.P22-27
[4]顾树华等.2000-2015年新能源和可再生能源发展规划[M].中国经济出版社,2001.P54-58
[5]董少广、王淮海.我国能源结构与资源利用效率分析[J].中国信息报.2006
[6]中国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划
[7]河南省统计局.河南省统计年鉴(2008)[D]
[8](英)M.G.韦布、M.J.里茨基.能源经济学[M].西南财经大学出版社.1987年版P65-70
[9]汤萌.中国电力市场化改革及其区域问题研究[M].中国经济出版社.2004年版P112-120
[10]田立新等.能源经济系统分析[M].社会科学文献出版社.2005年版
[11]刘世锦、冯飞.2002中国产业发展跟踪研究[M].华夏出版社.2002年版
[12]陈元.能源安全与能源发展战略研究[M].中国财政经济出版社.2007年版
[13]黄素逸.能源科学导论[M].中国电力出版社.2002年版
[14]徐国泉.中国能源效率问题研究[M].大连理工大学出版社.2008年版
[15]史丹.中国能源效率的地区差异与节能潜力分析[M].中国工业经济.2006年版
[16]张希良.风能开发利用[M].化学工业出版社.2005年版
[17]河南省国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要.2006年
[18]张正敏等.中国风力发电经济激励政策研究[M].中国环境科学出版社.2002年版
[19]吴季松.新循环经济学[M].清华大学出版社.2005年版
[20]王革华.能源与可持续发展[M].化学工业出版社.2005年版
[21]苏东水.产业经济学[M].高等教育出版社.2005年版
[22]中国地质矿产经济学会.资源、环境、循环经济[M].中国大地出版社.2005年版
[23]任有中.能源工程管理[M].中国电力出版社.2004年版
[24]刘林森.能源短缺挑战中国经济[J].中国经济周刊.2004(3)
[25]中国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划
[26]国家统计局统计公报.2006年
[27]黄素逸、高伟.能源概述[M].高等教育出版社.2005年版
[28]朱达.能源--环境的经济分析与政策研究[M].中国环境科学出版社.2000年版
[29]刘思华.经济可持续发展论[M].中国环境科学出版社.2002年版
[30]李志东等.中国能源环境研究文集[M].中国环境科学出版社.2000(4)
[31]董继斌.能源经济论(3)山西经济出版社.2002年版
[32]周大地.中国能源问题研究[M].中国环境科学出版社.2005年版
[2]刘志迎:《现代产业经济学教程》,科学出版社,2008年版
[1]《河南省国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》,2006年
[1]《河南省国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》,2006年版
[2]陈元:《能源安全与能源发展战略研究》,中国财政经济出版社,2007年版
[1]王家诚、赵志林,《2007中国能源发展报告》,2008年版
[1]史丹:《中国能源效率的地区差异与节能潜力分析》,中国工业经济,2006年版
[1]张希良:《风能开发利用》,化学工业出版社,2005年版
[1]田立新等:《能源经济系统分析》,社会科学文献出版社,2005年版
[1]王家诚、赵志林.2007中国能源发展报告[M].2008
[2]中国统计局.中国统计年鉴(2008)[D]
[3]牛文元.2000年中国可持续发展战略报告[M].科学出版社.P22-27
[4]顾树华等.2000-2015年新能源和可再生能源发展规划[M].中国经济出版社,2001.P54-58
[5]董少广、王淮海.我国能源结构与资源利用效率分析[J].中国信息报.2006
[6]中国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划
[7]河南省统计局.河南省统计年鉴(2008)[D]
[8](英)M.G.韦布、M.J.里茨基.能源经济学[M].西南财经大学出版社.1987年版P65-70
[9]汤萌.中国电力市场化改革及其区域问题研究[M].中国经济出版社.2004年版P112-120
[10]田立新等.能源经济系统分析[M].社会科学文献出版社.2005年版
[11]刘世锦、冯飞.2002中国产业发展跟踪研究[M].华夏出版社.2002年版
[12]陈元.能源安全与能源发展战略研究[M].中国财政经济出版社.2007年版
[13]黄素逸.能源科学导论[M].中国电力出版社.2002年版
[14]徐国泉.中国能源效率问题研究[M].大连理工大学出版社.2008年版
[15]史丹.中国能源效率的地区差异与节能潜力分析[M].中国工业经济.2006年版
[16]张希良.风能开发利用[M].化学工业出版社.2005年版
[17]河南省国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要.2006年
[18]张正敏等.中国风力发电经济激励政策研究[M].中国环境科学出版社.2002年版
[19]吴季松.新循环经济学[M].清华大学出版社.2005年版
[20]王革华.能源与可持续发展[M].化学工业出版社.2005年版
[21]苏东水.产业经济学[M].高等教育出版社.2005年版
[22]中国地质矿产经济学会.资源、环境、循环经济[M].中国大地出版社.2005年版
[23]任有中.能源工程管理[M].中国电力出版社.2004年版
[24]刘林森.能源短缺挑战中国经济[J].中国经济周刊.2004(3)
[25]中国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划
[26]国家统计局统计公报.2006年
[27]黄素逸、高伟.能源概述[M].高等教育出版社.2005年版
[28]朱达.能源--环境的经济分析与政策研究[M].中国环境科学出版社.2000年版
[29]刘思华.经济可持续发展论[M].中国环境科学出版社.2002年版
[30]李志东等.中国能源环境研究文集[M].中国环境科学出版社.2000(4)
[31]董继斌.能源经济论(3)山西经济出版社.2002年版
[32]周大地.中国能源问题研究[M].中国环境科学出版社.2005年版