二层规划及其在电信供应链协调中的应用
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摘要
随着电信业的转型、重组以及3G牌照的发放,中国正式迎来了期待已久,内容为王的3G时代。移动互联网增值业务必将获得蓬勃的生机,竞争也必将空前的激烈。企业之间的竞争不再是简单的个体之间的竞争而是供应链与供应链之间的竞争,而电信运营商如何应对目前的链与链之间的竞争,如何与新兴的增值业务提供商进行合作以便获取更大的利润,以及目前的盈利模式是否合理,都将值得深入的研究。特别是现实世界中存在的信息不对称以及双边际效应使供应链企业之间的竞争与合作变得更加复杂,在这样的环境中如何协调供应链是研究的一个热点。
另一方面,在经济活动中,竞争与合作广泛存在。人们在做决策时,不仅要考虑自己的情况,而且还需要考虑竞争对手的情况及其可能的反应等。而且,在决策中,往往具有层次结构,不同层上有不同的决策者,他们有着不同的利益,其决策结果相互影响,相互制约。研究层次性问题的二层规划理论自Stackelberg以来得到了迅速的发展,一直是一个较为热点的研究领域。近年来有不少的学者借助于二层规划来研究具有鲜明层次性的供应链问题,然而,电信供应链在层次性的表现上更加错综复杂,如何建立模型使之符合这种二层规划的思想及层次性,是一项艰巨的任务。
鉴于以上两点,本文将根据目前供应链协调的主要理论——合同协调理论及二层规划理论进行有机的结合,来重点研究电信供应链中的增值业务供应链之间的协调问题。研究主要集中在电信运营商、增值业务提供商之间的参数决策权、参数值如定价、收入分成比例等的决策问题,并对其进行了二层规划协调供应链的效果分析。详细来讲,本文主要研究内容包括以下几个方面:
第一在研究了电信供应链及其特点的基础上,讨论了联合供应链合同协调理论及二层规划理论在电信供应链中应用的可行性。
第二在研究目前求解非线性规划流行的智能算法的基础上,提出了两种混合的智能算法,然后利用国际公认的检验函数对算法进行了检验,证明了有效性,并提出了基于混合智能算法的二层规划的解法,且同时给出了模型上下层有无决策顺序时的算法。
第三针对当前电信业特别是3G时代的数据增值业务供应链,在利用收入共享合同模型的基础上,对彩铃增值业务供应链进行了二层规划的建模和仿真,并分别讨论了一个彩铃增值业务提供商(SP)和多个电信运营商、一个电信运营商和多个彩铃增值业务提供商(SP)的“单/多”二层规划问题,且详细讨论了下层企业间非合作竞争、合作、合谋及委托人防范合谋的情形。另外,根据仿真结果针对模型及业务流程的缺陷,提出了两种改进的方法,并对改进的模型进行了建模和仿真分析。
在同时考虑价格和努力程度对需求的影响下,对上述的“单/多”型进行建模分析,仿真结果表明:占优势的企业(无论是电信运营商还是SP)均会充分利用自己的地位和权势来最大程度的榨取供应链上的利润,而仅给从属地位的参与者最基本的参与期望利润;对于下层有多人的情形,先行动者比后行动者获取较多的利润,并且下层合谋可以获取比不合作时更多的利润,而上层却受到损失;运用二层规划模型求出的供应链的总利润介于分散式与集成式供应链的总利润之间,在集成式供应链较难实现的现阶段有很好的应用前途。
第四研究了多个SP和多个电信运营商存在的情形,分别就多个SP在上层和多个电信运营商在上层的“多/单”、“多/多”二层规划模型进行了建模和仿真分析,并利用研究工作二的算法对同层和上下层多人有无决策顺序的情形进行了详细的分析。
上述“多/单”、“多/多”型实证研究的仿真结果表明:在双边际效应的影响下,各企业为了自身的利润会最大程度利用自身的优势来榨取供应链利润而不管相关企业的利润;同样的企业,同样的成本数据,当处于二层规划的不同层次时,获取的博弈均衡解是不同的,且处于同层时,先行动比后行动获取较多的利润;目前的电信供应链没有完全协调,其中通信费还有一定的下调空间;二层规划得到的均衡解,使供应链的利润处于集成式与分散式供应链的利润之间,在信息不对称和双边际效益的情形下,能很好的发挥起协调作用。
With the reorganization of telecom industry and the issuance of 3G licenses, China will entrance the age of 3G where contents are the main business. The value-added services of mobile Internet will be vigorous, at the same time, the competition will be unprecedented intense. Meanwhile, the competition between individual enterprises will transfer to the competition between the supply chains. Therefore, it is significant to discuss how telecom operators deal with the supply chain competition and choose the proper way to cooperate with new value-added service providers in order to obtain greater profits. At the same time, telecom operators should review the profit mode to adapt the reality, where is full of asymmetry information and complex relationship between enterprises in the supply chain because of double marginalization.
On the other hand, there is a wide range of competition and cooperation in economic activities. When people make a decision, they not only consider their own situation, but also take the competitors' situation and response into account. And on the decision, the decision-makers usually are on different level and have their own profit function, so the decision results affect each other and constraint mutually. The bi-level programming theory which studying the level issue has been developed from Stackelberg, and become a hot research field. Many scholars have used bi-level programming to study the supply chain which has clear-cut level characters recently, while the level characters of the telecom supply chain are complex, and it is a difficult problem to construct the telecom supply chain model to meet the bi-level programming theory.
Based on the two issues before, this paper will combine the contract coordination theory and bi-level programming theory to study the value-added service supply chains coordination of telecom supply chain, which focuse on the parameters of the decision-making power between operators and value-added service providers, such as pricing, the proportion of revenue. Then analyze the effects of bi-level programming to the supply chain coordination. The main contents are concluded as follows:
Firstly: On the base of researching the telecom supply chain model and its characters, the feasibility of applying the supply chain contract coordination theory and bi-level programming theory to the telecom supply chain is discussed.
Secondly: Studying several intelligent algorithms which are commonly used to solving the non-linear programming, two types of hybrid intelligent algorithm are proposed, and the algorithms are proved effectively by internationally recognized test function, then the algorithm to solve the bi-level programming based on the hybrid intelligent algorithm is put forward, which considered the decision-making order between the competitors in the same levels.
Thirdly: Aiming at the telecom supply chain especially the value-added services supply chain in the 3G era, with revenue sharing contract, the color ring service supply chain is modeled and simulated, the "single-multi" bi-level programming model which there is one color ring provider in the leader level and several telecom operators in the follower level, or one telecom operator in leader level and several color ring providers in follower level is discussed. Then the situation of the non-cooperative competition, cooperation, collusion, and principal prevented collusion between agents in follower level are analyzed. Furthermore, on the basis of researching the current models and process, the improved models are proposed and simulated.
With considering the demands affected by the price and promote efforts degree, the "single-multi" model is modeled and the simulation results show that: The preponderant firms (whatever telecom operators or SP) will take full advantage of their own superiority to squeeze the maximum profit in the supply chain, and only give the secondary firms the basic profit which make the firms participate in; in the situation of having multiple agents in follower level, the earlier actor earn more profit than latter actor, and more profit can be obtained by cooperation (collusion), while the leader loses; the total profit of the supply chain obtained by the model of bi-level programming is between the decentralized and integrated supply chain's profit, which is the reason why the supply chain modeled by the bi-level programming can be applied broadly in the stage of having difficulty to implement the integrated supply chain.
Fourthly: The situation of having multiple service providers and multiple telecom operators is researched firstly, and then the situation that there are multiple service providers in the follower and leader level respectively modeled and simulated by the algorithm which proposed in the second works.
The "multi-single", "multi-multi" telecom supply chain models simulation results show that: On the effects of double-marginalization, the firm will take full use of the advantages to maximize its own profit regardless of the related participators' profits; the same firm in different level have different profits, and in the same level, the earlier actor has more profit than latter actor; the telecom supply chain at present is not coordination yet, and the communication fee has downward space; in the situation of asymmetry information and double-marginalization, the bi-level programming model with supply chain contract can coordinate the supply chain better.
另一方面,在经济活动中,竞争与合作广泛存在。人们在做决策时,不仅要考虑自己的情况,而且还需要考虑竞争对手的情况及其可能的反应等。而且,在决策中,往往具有层次结构,不同层上有不同的决策者,他们有着不同的利益,其决策结果相互影响,相互制约。研究层次性问题的二层规划理论自Stackelberg以来得到了迅速的发展,一直是一个较为热点的研究领域。近年来有不少的学者借助于二层规划来研究具有鲜明层次性的供应链问题,然而,电信供应链在层次性的表现上更加错综复杂,如何建立模型使之符合这种二层规划的思想及层次性,是一项艰巨的任务。
鉴于以上两点,本文将根据目前供应链协调的主要理论——合同协调理论及二层规划理论进行有机的结合,来重点研究电信供应链中的增值业务供应链之间的协调问题。研究主要集中在电信运营商、增值业务提供商之间的参数决策权、参数值如定价、收入分成比例等的决策问题,并对其进行了二层规划协调供应链的效果分析。详细来讲,本文主要研究内容包括以下几个方面:
第一在研究了电信供应链及其特点的基础上,讨论了联合供应链合同协调理论及二层规划理论在电信供应链中应用的可行性。
第二在研究目前求解非线性规划流行的智能算法的基础上,提出了两种混合的智能算法,然后利用国际公认的检验函数对算法进行了检验,证明了有效性,并提出了基于混合智能算法的二层规划的解法,且同时给出了模型上下层有无决策顺序时的算法。
第三针对当前电信业特别是3G时代的数据增值业务供应链,在利用收入共享合同模型的基础上,对彩铃增值业务供应链进行了二层规划的建模和仿真,并分别讨论了一个彩铃增值业务提供商(SP)和多个电信运营商、一个电信运营商和多个彩铃增值业务提供商(SP)的“单/多”二层规划问题,且详细讨论了下层企业间非合作竞争、合作、合谋及委托人防范合谋的情形。另外,根据仿真结果针对模型及业务流程的缺陷,提出了两种改进的方法,并对改进的模型进行了建模和仿真分析。
在同时考虑价格和努力程度对需求的影响下,对上述的“单/多”型进行建模分析,仿真结果表明:占优势的企业(无论是电信运营商还是SP)均会充分利用自己的地位和权势来最大程度的榨取供应链上的利润,而仅给从属地位的参与者最基本的参与期望利润;对于下层有多人的情形,先行动者比后行动者获取较多的利润,并且下层合谋可以获取比不合作时更多的利润,而上层却受到损失;运用二层规划模型求出的供应链的总利润介于分散式与集成式供应链的总利润之间,在集成式供应链较难实现的现阶段有很好的应用前途。
第四研究了多个SP和多个电信运营商存在的情形,分别就多个SP在上层和多个电信运营商在上层的“多/单”、“多/多”二层规划模型进行了建模和仿真分析,并利用研究工作二的算法对同层和上下层多人有无决策顺序的情形进行了详细的分析。
上述“多/单”、“多/多”型实证研究的仿真结果表明:在双边际效应的影响下,各企业为了自身的利润会最大程度利用自身的优势来榨取供应链利润而不管相关企业的利润;同样的企业,同样的成本数据,当处于二层规划的不同层次时,获取的博弈均衡解是不同的,且处于同层时,先行动比后行动获取较多的利润;目前的电信供应链没有完全协调,其中通信费还有一定的下调空间;二层规划得到的均衡解,使供应链的利润处于集成式与分散式供应链的利润之间,在信息不对称和双边际效益的情形下,能很好的发挥起协调作用。
With the reorganization of telecom industry and the issuance of 3G licenses, China will entrance the age of 3G where contents are the main business. The value-added services of mobile Internet will be vigorous, at the same time, the competition will be unprecedented intense. Meanwhile, the competition between individual enterprises will transfer to the competition between the supply chains. Therefore, it is significant to discuss how telecom operators deal with the supply chain competition and choose the proper way to cooperate with new value-added service providers in order to obtain greater profits. At the same time, telecom operators should review the profit mode to adapt the reality, where is full of asymmetry information and complex relationship between enterprises in the supply chain because of double marginalization.
On the other hand, there is a wide range of competition and cooperation in economic activities. When people make a decision, they not only consider their own situation, but also take the competitors' situation and response into account. And on the decision, the decision-makers usually are on different level and have their own profit function, so the decision results affect each other and constraint mutually. The bi-level programming theory which studying the level issue has been developed from Stackelberg, and become a hot research field. Many scholars have used bi-level programming to study the supply chain which has clear-cut level characters recently, while the level characters of the telecom supply chain are complex, and it is a difficult problem to construct the telecom supply chain model to meet the bi-level programming theory.
Based on the two issues before, this paper will combine the contract coordination theory and bi-level programming theory to study the value-added service supply chains coordination of telecom supply chain, which focuse on the parameters of the decision-making power between operators and value-added service providers, such as pricing, the proportion of revenue. Then analyze the effects of bi-level programming to the supply chain coordination. The main contents are concluded as follows:
Firstly: On the base of researching the telecom supply chain model and its characters, the feasibility of applying the supply chain contract coordination theory and bi-level programming theory to the telecom supply chain is discussed.
Secondly: Studying several intelligent algorithms which are commonly used to solving the non-linear programming, two types of hybrid intelligent algorithm are proposed, and the algorithms are proved effectively by internationally recognized test function, then the algorithm to solve the bi-level programming based on the hybrid intelligent algorithm is put forward, which considered the decision-making order between the competitors in the same levels.
Thirdly: Aiming at the telecom supply chain especially the value-added services supply chain in the 3G era, with revenue sharing contract, the color ring service supply chain is modeled and simulated, the "single-multi" bi-level programming model which there is one color ring provider in the leader level and several telecom operators in the follower level, or one telecom operator in leader level and several color ring providers in follower level is discussed. Then the situation of the non-cooperative competition, cooperation, collusion, and principal prevented collusion between agents in follower level are analyzed. Furthermore, on the basis of researching the current models and process, the improved models are proposed and simulated.
With considering the demands affected by the price and promote efforts degree, the "single-multi" model is modeled and the simulation results show that: The preponderant firms (whatever telecom operators or SP) will take full advantage of their own superiority to squeeze the maximum profit in the supply chain, and only give the secondary firms the basic profit which make the firms participate in; in the situation of having multiple agents in follower level, the earlier actor earn more profit than latter actor, and more profit can be obtained by cooperation (collusion), while the leader loses; the total profit of the supply chain obtained by the model of bi-level programming is between the decentralized and integrated supply chain's profit, which is the reason why the supply chain modeled by the bi-level programming can be applied broadly in the stage of having difficulty to implement the integrated supply chain.
Fourthly: The situation of having multiple service providers and multiple telecom operators is researched firstly, and then the situation that there are multiple service providers in the follower and leader level respectively modeled and simulated by the algorithm which proposed in the second works.
The "multi-single", "multi-multi" telecom supply chain models simulation results show that: On the effects of double-marginalization, the firm will take full use of the advantages to maximize its own profit regardless of the related participators' profits; the same firm in different level have different profits, and in the same level, the earlier actor has more profit than latter actor; the telecom supply chain at present is not coordination yet, and the communication fee has downward space; in the situation of asymmetry information and double-marginalization, the bi-level programming model with supply chain contract can coordinate the supply chain better.
引文
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