股票市场发展与货币政策效率
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摘要
近年来,股票市场发展迅速,在一定程度上影响了货币政策作用机制。各国货币当局都面临在此条件下提高货币政策效率的问题,同时,股票市场的发展也影响了货币政策传统理论的解释力。因此,研究股票市场发展对货币政策效率的影响具有重要的现实意义和理论意义。本文将研究在股票市场发展条件下,微观经济主体行为的相互影响如何改变了货币政策效率。
股票市场的发展,增加了微观经济主体的资产持有形式,改变了货币政策的微观基础。根据跨期效用最大化原理,微观经济主体会将自己的资产合理分配在货币、消费、实际投资和股票投资上,从而影响了微观经济主体的货币需求行为、消费行为和投资行为。在股票市场发展情况下,货币政策微观基础发生了变化。货币当局实施货币政策时,股票市场的发展将改变微观经济主体的反应,从而影响货币政策的作用机制。在现实经济中,微观经济主体在决策过程中面临不完全信息问题,使他们不会像完全信息状态下那样调整自己的资产。在不完全信息条件下,当货币当局开始实施货币政策时,微观经济主体将根据别人的选择来决定自己的策略选择。微观经济主体之间将进行货币政策博弈,为了最大化自己的收益,他们将仿效别人的选择,否则将蒙受损失。在货币政策博弈中,股票市场发展状况决定了博弈均衡解的数目,影响着货币政策的稳定性。完善的股票市场有助于减少博弈均衡解的数目,提高货币政策效果的稳定性,而不完善的股票市场则会增加均衡解的数目,造成货币政策效果的不稳定。此外,完善的股票市场可以向微观经济主体传递准确的信息,还能够影响货币政策传导渠道,放大货币政策的效果,使微观经济主体增强对货币政策的信心,提高货币政策可信性。根据博弈均衡的收入占优均衡原理、“聚点均衡”和“廉价谈判”原理,在货币政策博弈过程中,微观经济主
In the recent years, the fast development of the stock market has influenced the process of the manipulation of monetary policy. The central banks are faced with the problem of how to increase the monetary policy efficiency in this case. Meanwhile, the explaining power of the traditional monetary policy theories has been negatively affected too. It is of great practical and theoretical importance to study the influence of the stock market development on the monetary policy efficiency. This paper will study how the interaction of the microeconomic agents' behaviors has influenced the monetary policy efficiency when the stock market has developed to a certain degree.The development of the stock market has provided a new asset for the microeconomic agent, which has changed the micro-foundation of the monetary policy. According to the assumption of intertemporal utility maximization, the microeconomic agent will hold his assets in the form of hoarding money, consumption, business investment and stock investment proportionally, which will in turn change the agent's money demand, consumption and investment. With the development of stock market, the micro-foundation of monetary policy has changed. When the central bank manipulates monetary policy, the stock market will change the microeconomic agent's response to the monetary policy, so the mechanism of monetary policy will change too. In reality, the microeconomic agent will be faced with the problem of incomplete information, which will let him unable to adjust their assets as he does in the world with complete information. In the world with incomplete information, when the central bank begins to manipulate monetary policy, the microeconomic agent will make his
own strategy according to others' strategy. There will be a monetary policy game among the microeconomie agents. To maximize his own payoffs, the microeconorm'c agent will emulate others' strategy; otherwise he will meet a loss. In the process of monetary policy game, the different state of stock market will determine the number of the equilibria. Hence the stability of the monetary policy effect has been greatly influenced. Well-functioning stock market will stabilize the monetary policy effect, while the ill-functioning stock market will increase the number of the monetary policy game's equilibria to make the monetary policy's effect less stable. Besides, a well-functioning stock market can convey accurate information to the microeconomie agent, and magnify the monetary policy effect through its influence on the monetary policy transmission mechanism, which will make the microeconomie agent more confident in the monetary policy and enhance the credibility of monetary policy. According to the payoff dominance theory, focal point theory and cheap talk theory of the decision of game's equilibrium, in the process of the monetary policy game, all the microeconomie agents will adjust their behaviors actively. On the contrary, in the ill-functioning stock market, the microeconomie agent will be less confident in the monetary policy effect. In this case, he will not respond positively to the monetary policy, which will lower the monetary policy effect.Based on the theoretical analysis, the money demand, money multiplier, velocity of money and the monetary policy transmission channel have been studied empirically with China's relevant indicators to find the influence of the stock market on the monetary policy efficiency. The results show that China's stock market has exerted a weak influence on the narrow money demand, but with no significant influence on the wide money demand. The money multiplier and money velocity have been positively influenced to a weak degree. In addition, the development of China stock market has positively influenced the loan channel
and the asset portfolio channel of the monetary policy transmission to a certain degree. It means that the development of China's stock market has had a positive influence on the monetary policy efficiency to a weak degree. The results show that when the stock price index has been increased by the healthy development of China's stock market, the monetary policy will be more efficient. On the contrary, if the stock market price increases as the result of bubbles, the monetary policy efficiency will be lowered. So, in China, it is necessary to develop the stock market to increase the monetary policy efficiency. The central bank cannot intervene the stock market arbitrarily for a short-term motivation.With the fast development of the stock market, it is necessary to reform the monetary policy manipulation system and to further develop China's stock market to increase the monetary policy efficiency. From the present point of view, on the one hand, the present monetary policy manipulation method should be improved; on the other hand, the resource allocation function and the information conveyance function should be fully developed in the stock market.
股票市场的发展,增加了微观经济主体的资产持有形式,改变了货币政策的微观基础。根据跨期效用最大化原理,微观经济主体会将自己的资产合理分配在货币、消费、实际投资和股票投资上,从而影响了微观经济主体的货币需求行为、消费行为和投资行为。在股票市场发展情况下,货币政策微观基础发生了变化。货币当局实施货币政策时,股票市场的发展将改变微观经济主体的反应,从而影响货币政策的作用机制。在现实经济中,微观经济主体在决策过程中面临不完全信息问题,使他们不会像完全信息状态下那样调整自己的资产。在不完全信息条件下,当货币当局开始实施货币政策时,微观经济主体将根据别人的选择来决定自己的策略选择。微观经济主体之间将进行货币政策博弈,为了最大化自己的收益,他们将仿效别人的选择,否则将蒙受损失。在货币政策博弈中,股票市场发展状况决定了博弈均衡解的数目,影响着货币政策的稳定性。完善的股票市场有助于减少博弈均衡解的数目,提高货币政策效果的稳定性,而不完善的股票市场则会增加均衡解的数目,造成货币政策效果的不稳定。此外,完善的股票市场可以向微观经济主体传递准确的信息,还能够影响货币政策传导渠道,放大货币政策的效果,使微观经济主体增强对货币政策的信心,提高货币政策可信性。根据博弈均衡的收入占优均衡原理、“聚点均衡”和“廉价谈判”原理,在货币政策博弈过程中,微观经济主
In the recent years, the fast development of the stock market has influenced the process of the manipulation of monetary policy. The central banks are faced with the problem of how to increase the monetary policy efficiency in this case. Meanwhile, the explaining power of the traditional monetary policy theories has been negatively affected too. It is of great practical and theoretical importance to study the influence of the stock market development on the monetary policy efficiency. This paper will study how the interaction of the microeconomic agents' behaviors has influenced the monetary policy efficiency when the stock market has developed to a certain degree.The development of the stock market has provided a new asset for the microeconomic agent, which has changed the micro-foundation of the monetary policy. According to the assumption of intertemporal utility maximization, the microeconomic agent will hold his assets in the form of hoarding money, consumption, business investment and stock investment proportionally, which will in turn change the agent's money demand, consumption and investment. With the development of stock market, the micro-foundation of monetary policy has changed. When the central bank manipulates monetary policy, the stock market will change the microeconomic agent's response to the monetary policy, so the mechanism of monetary policy will change too. In reality, the microeconomic agent will be faced with the problem of incomplete information, which will let him unable to adjust their assets as he does in the world with complete information. In the world with incomplete information, when the central bank begins to manipulate monetary policy, the microeconomic agent will make his
own strategy according to others' strategy. There will be a monetary policy game among the microeconomie agents. To maximize his own payoffs, the microeconorm'c agent will emulate others' strategy; otherwise he will meet a loss. In the process of monetary policy game, the different state of stock market will determine the number of the equilibria. Hence the stability of the monetary policy effect has been greatly influenced. Well-functioning stock market will stabilize the monetary policy effect, while the ill-functioning stock market will increase the number of the monetary policy game's equilibria to make the monetary policy's effect less stable. Besides, a well-functioning stock market can convey accurate information to the microeconomie agent, and magnify the monetary policy effect through its influence on the monetary policy transmission mechanism, which will make the microeconomie agent more confident in the monetary policy and enhance the credibility of monetary policy. According to the payoff dominance theory, focal point theory and cheap talk theory of the decision of game's equilibrium, in the process of the monetary policy game, all the microeconomie agents will adjust their behaviors actively. On the contrary, in the ill-functioning stock market, the microeconomie agent will be less confident in the monetary policy effect. In this case, he will not respond positively to the monetary policy, which will lower the monetary policy effect.Based on the theoretical analysis, the money demand, money multiplier, velocity of money and the monetary policy transmission channel have been studied empirically with China's relevant indicators to find the influence of the stock market on the monetary policy efficiency. The results show that China's stock market has exerted a weak influence on the narrow money demand, but with no significant influence on the wide money demand. The money multiplier and money velocity have been positively influenced to a weak degree. In addition, the development of China stock market has positively influenced the loan channel
and the asset portfolio channel of the monetary policy transmission to a certain degree. It means that the development of China's stock market has had a positive influence on the monetary policy efficiency to a weak degree. The results show that when the stock price index has been increased by the healthy development of China's stock market, the monetary policy will be more efficient. On the contrary, if the stock market price increases as the result of bubbles, the monetary policy efficiency will be lowered. So, in China, it is necessary to develop the stock market to increase the monetary policy efficiency. The central bank cannot intervene the stock market arbitrarily for a short-term motivation.With the fast development of the stock market, it is necessary to reform the monetary policy manipulation system and to further develop China's stock market to increase the monetary policy efficiency. From the present point of view, on the one hand, the present monetary policy manipulation method should be improved; on the other hand, the resource allocation function and the information conveyance function should be fully developed in the stock market.
引文
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96、刘志明,2001:“中国的M_2/GDP(1980—2000)趋势、水平和影响因素”,《经济研究》,第2期
97、刘建江、刘怀德,2000:“股市对经济增长的贡献:美国案例”,《世界经济》,第6期
98、马涛:《经济思想史教程》,复旦大学出版社,2002年1月第1版
99、[加]马丁·J·奥斯本,[美]阿里尔·鲁宾斯坦著,魏玉根译:《博弈论教程》,中国社会科学出版社,2000年4月第1版
100、[美]米尔顿·弗里德曼等编著,瞿强,杜丽群译:《货币数量论研究》,中国社会科学出版社,2001年1月第1版
101、[美]F·s·米什金著,李扬等译:《货币金融学》,中国人民大学出版社,1998年8月第1版
102、欧洲中央银行著,张敖、胡秋慧译:《欧洲中央银行货币政策》,2004年2月第1版
103、[英]帕特里克·明福德著,方福前,王小波译:《理性预期货币经济学》,中国大百科全书出版社,1998年9月第1版
104、钱小安,1998:“资产价格变化对货币政策的影响”,《经济研究》第12期
105、瞿强,2001:“资产选择与货币政策”,《经济研究》第7期
106、石建民,2001:“股票市场、货币需求与经济总量”,《经济研究)》第5期
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110、[美]托马斯·梅耶,詹姆斯·S·杜森贝里,罗伯特·Z·阿利伯著,洪文金、林志军等译:《货币、银行与经济》,上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,1994年9月第1版
111、万解秋:《企业融资结构研究》,复旦大学出版社,2001年3月第1版
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113、万解秋,陈洁,2000:“投资机构介入公司治理的新视角”,《上海经济研究》,第12期
114、万解秋,徐涛,2001:“货币供给的内生性与货币政策的效率”,《经济研究》,第3期
115、万解秋,徐涛,2005:“货币供给扰动与股票市场反应”,《广东社会科学》,第1期
116、王光伟:《中国金融体制改革焦点问题研究》,复旦大学出版社,2003年1月第1版
117、王曦,2001:“经济转型中的货币需求与货币流通速度”,《经济研究》,第10期
118、王子明著:《泡沫与泡沫经济非均衡分析》,北京大学出版社,2002年1月第 1版
119、王林辉,李富强,2005:“论股市与经济增长互动机制”,《经济学动态》,第2期
120、汪红驹:《中国货币政策有效性研究》,中国人民大学出版社,2003年5月第1版
121、伍海华:《西方货币金融理论》,中国金融出版社,2002年6月第1版
122、夏斌、廖强,2001:“货币供应量已不宜作为当前我国的货币政策中介目标”,《财经》,第2期
123、谢平,焦瑾璞主编:《中国货币政策争论》,中国金融出版社,2002年10月第1版
124、谢识予:《经济博弈论》,复旦大学出版社,1997年6月第1版
125、徐涛,2001:“刺激股市对经济增长的影响”,《世界经济》,第9期
126、徐涛,2001:“论中国货币政策中间目标的有效性”,《经济评论》,第3期
127、杨瑞龙等:《企业共同治理的经济学分析》,经济科学出版社,2001年3月第1版
128、余永定,2002:“M_2/GDP的动态增长路径”,《世界经济》,第12期
129、余明:《资产价格、金融稳定与货币政策》,中国金融出版社,2003年10月第1版
130、张中华,2002:“论我国的货币政策、股票市场与经济增长”,《管理世界》,第4期
131、张圣平著:《偏好、信念、信息与证券价格》,上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2002年11月第1版
132、张晓晶著:《符号经济与实体经济—金融全球化时代的经济分析》,上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2002年11月第1版
133、赵英军、侯绍泽,1999:“货币政策:通过股票市场传导”,《金融研究》,第12期
134、中国人民银行研究局课题组,2002:“中国股票市场发展与货币政策完善”,《金融研究》,第4期
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88、苟文军,2000:“资本市场的发展与货币政策变革”,《金融研究》,第5期
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90、胡援成,2000:“中国的货币乘数与货币流通速度研究”,《金融研究》,第9期
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97、刘建江、刘怀德,2000:“股市对经济增长的贡献:美国案例”,《世界经济》,第6期
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114、万解秋,徐涛,2001:“货币供给的内生性与货币政策的效率”,《经济研究》,第3期
115、万解秋,徐涛,2005:“货币供给扰动与股票市场反应”,《广东社会科学》,第1期
116、王光伟:《中国金融体制改革焦点问题研究》,复旦大学出版社,2003年1月第1版
117、王曦,2001:“经济转型中的货币需求与货币流通速度”,《经济研究》,第10期
118、王子明著:《泡沫与泡沫经济非均衡分析》,北京大学出版社,2002年1月第 1版
119、王林辉,李富强,2005:“论股市与经济增长互动机制”,《经济学动态》,第2期
120、汪红驹:《中国货币政策有效性研究》,中国人民大学出版社,2003年5月第1版
121、伍海华:《西方货币金融理论》,中国金融出版社,2002年6月第1版
122、夏斌、廖强,2001:“货币供应量已不宜作为当前我国的货币政策中介目标”,《财经》,第2期
123、谢平,焦瑾璞主编:《中国货币政策争论》,中国金融出版社,2002年10月第1版
124、谢识予:《经济博弈论》,复旦大学出版社,1997年6月第1版
125、徐涛,2001:“刺激股市对经济增长的影响”,《世界经济》,第9期
126、徐涛,2001:“论中国货币政策中间目标的有效性”,《经济评论》,第3期
127、杨瑞龙等:《企业共同治理的经济学分析》,经济科学出版社,2001年3月第1版
128、余永定,2002:“M_2/GDP的动态增长路径”,《世界经济》,第12期
129、余明:《资产价格、金融稳定与货币政策》,中国金融出版社,2003年10月第1版
130、张中华,2002:“论我国的货币政策、股票市场与经济增长”,《管理世界》,第4期
131、张圣平著:《偏好、信念、信息与证券价格》,上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2002年11月第1版
132、张晓晶著:《符号经济与实体经济—金融全球化时代的经济分析》,上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2002年11月第1版
133、赵英军、侯绍泽,1999:“货币政策:通过股票市场传导”,《金融研究》,第12期
134、中国人民银行研究局课题组,2002:“中国股票市场发展与货币政策完善”,《金融研究》,第4期