基于农户视角的农产品供应链风险管理研究
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摘要
我国是一个以小农生产为主体的农产品生产大国,农产品供应链管理是提高我国农产品竞争能力和满足广大居民生活需求的重要途径之一。然而,现阶段农户的“小农”状况(生产规模小、生产方式相对落后、组织化程度低等)使得他们在农产品供应链中处于不利地位。农户的这种弱势地位不仅使其面临较大的供应链风险,也成为我国农产品供应链整体竞争力不强的原因和障碍所在。因此,基于农户视角对农产品供应链进行风险识别、评估与控制的研究,是提升农产品供应链风险管理水平,提高农产品竞争力,稳定农民收入的重要途径。
本文在前入研究的基础上,结合我国农产品供应链的发展现状与特点,通过农户访谈和风险问卷调查的方法,识别了目前农产品供应链中存在的潜在风险因素,在此基础上构建了基于农户视角的农产品供应链风险评价指标体系；然后运用模糊层次(F-AHP)综合评价模型对当前农产品供应链风险进行了综合评估；最后提出风险控制措施。本文的主要研究内容和结论有：
1.风险识别：通过对浙江省农户进行小规模预调研和农户深度访谈,对风险因素进行反复修正与补充,提炼出生产资料的质量问题、生产资料的价格波动程度等16项风险因素。然后,对141份问卷调查数据进行因子分析,从16项风险变量中提炼出4个公共因子,最终将农产品供应链风险归为供应风险、生产与管理风险、合作与市场风险、外部环境风险四大类。
2.风险评估：确定了供应链风险评价指标体系,构建了模糊层次(F-AHP)综合评价模型,利用实地调查数据对当前的农产品供应链风险进行了实证评估。得出以下结论：(1)根据AHP法得出农产品供应链风险指标权重排序为：需求风险>生产与管理风险>供应风险>外部环境风险；(2)目前我国农产品供应链风险等级偏高,尤其是生产与管理风险、合作与市场风险的风险等级偏高,供应风险和外部环境风险相对偏低；(3)导致供应链整体风险等级偏高的原因主要是生产资料的价格波动程度较大,日常的生产过程管理不合理,农产品生产质量安全问题较严重,市场需求变化难应对,农产品市场价格波动较大等6种因素。
3.风险控制：基于风险识别与风险评估结果,本文提出以政府为主导,从农业支持、农业保险、农村专业合作组织建设、政府监管四方面入手,通过风险转移和损失控制的方式,对农户在农产品供应链中面临的供应风险、生产与管理风险、合作与市场风险和外部环境风险进行有效的控制。
China is a large agricultural producing country with mainly small-scale production subjects. Improving the agricultural supply chain management is an important way to improve the competitiveness of China's agricultural products and to meet the everyday needs of the residents. However, at this stage, farmers 'small farmer' condition (small-scale production, backward mode of production, low level of organization) makes them on a disadvantage position at a long time. This weak position of farmers not only makes them to face greater risk of supply chain, but also has become the difficulty for developing the overall competitiveness of China in practice. Therefore, based on the farmers perspective in the agricultural supply chain risk identification, assessment and control studies is not only a difficult problem which each supply chain management and related problems researcher is facing, but also an import way to improve the competitiveness of agricultural products and to stabilize farmers' income.
Base on previous studies, combined with China's agricultural supply chain development status and characteristics, this paper used interviews and questionnaire survey methods to identify the potential risk factors in the agricultural supply chain. And we constructed a supply chain risk assessment system base on the farmer perspective. Then we use F-AHP assessment model to assess the agricultural supply chain risk. At last, we proposed related risk control measures. The main content and conclusions of this paper are:
1. Risk Identification:We carried out 16 risk factors through small-scale pre-investigation and in-depth interviews of farmers in Zhejiang Province. Then we use factor analysis to analyze 141 questionnaire, extracted four common factors from 16 risk variables. At last we classified agricultural supply chain risk into 4 risks: supply risk, production and management risk, cooperation and market risk and external environment risk.
2. Risk assessment:We determined the supply chain evaluation index system, built an F-AHP model, used empirical data to evaluate current agricultural supply chain risk. We had the following conclusions. (1)According to the AHP method, we get the weighted risk orders:Demand risk> Production and manage risk> Supply risk> External environmental risks; (2)The overall agricultural supply chain risk level is on the high side. (3)The main 6 reasons which caused conclusions(2) are the greater degree of price volatility of production data, unreasonable daily management in production process, more serious production quality and safety problem, difficulty in dealing with market demand changes and market price fluctuations of agricultural products.
3. Risk Control:Based on risk identification and risk assessment result, this paper proposed a government leading suggestion. We proposed we should control the four agricultural supply chain risks from four agricultural support, agricultural insurance, rural specialized cooperative organizations construction and government regulations and through risk transfer and lost control.
本文在前入研究的基础上,结合我国农产品供应链的发展现状与特点,通过农户访谈和风险问卷调查的方法,识别了目前农产品供应链中存在的潜在风险因素,在此基础上构建了基于农户视角的农产品供应链风险评价指标体系；然后运用模糊层次(F-AHP)综合评价模型对当前农产品供应链风险进行了综合评估；最后提出风险控制措施。本文的主要研究内容和结论有：
1.风险识别：通过对浙江省农户进行小规模预调研和农户深度访谈,对风险因素进行反复修正与补充,提炼出生产资料的质量问题、生产资料的价格波动程度等16项风险因素。然后,对141份问卷调查数据进行因子分析,从16项风险变量中提炼出4个公共因子,最终将农产品供应链风险归为供应风险、生产与管理风险、合作与市场风险、外部环境风险四大类。
2.风险评估：确定了供应链风险评价指标体系,构建了模糊层次(F-AHP)综合评价模型,利用实地调查数据对当前的农产品供应链风险进行了实证评估。得出以下结论：(1)根据AHP法得出农产品供应链风险指标权重排序为：需求风险>生产与管理风险>供应风险>外部环境风险；(2)目前我国农产品供应链风险等级偏高,尤其是生产与管理风险、合作与市场风险的风险等级偏高,供应风险和外部环境风险相对偏低；(3)导致供应链整体风险等级偏高的原因主要是生产资料的价格波动程度较大,日常的生产过程管理不合理,农产品生产质量安全问题较严重,市场需求变化难应对,农产品市场价格波动较大等6种因素。
3.风险控制：基于风险识别与风险评估结果,本文提出以政府为主导,从农业支持、农业保险、农村专业合作组织建设、政府监管四方面入手,通过风险转移和损失控制的方式,对农户在农产品供应链中面临的供应风险、生产与管理风险、合作与市场风险和外部环境风险进行有效的控制。
China is a large agricultural producing country with mainly small-scale production subjects. Improving the agricultural supply chain management is an important way to improve the competitiveness of China's agricultural products and to meet the everyday needs of the residents. However, at this stage, farmers 'small farmer' condition (small-scale production, backward mode of production, low level of organization) makes them on a disadvantage position at a long time. This weak position of farmers not only makes them to face greater risk of supply chain, but also has become the difficulty for developing the overall competitiveness of China in practice. Therefore, based on the farmers perspective in the agricultural supply chain risk identification, assessment and control studies is not only a difficult problem which each supply chain management and related problems researcher is facing, but also an import way to improve the competitiveness of agricultural products and to stabilize farmers' income.
Base on previous studies, combined with China's agricultural supply chain development status and characteristics, this paper used interviews and questionnaire survey methods to identify the potential risk factors in the agricultural supply chain. And we constructed a supply chain risk assessment system base on the farmer perspective. Then we use F-AHP assessment model to assess the agricultural supply chain risk. At last, we proposed related risk control measures. The main content and conclusions of this paper are:
1. Risk Identification:We carried out 16 risk factors through small-scale pre-investigation and in-depth interviews of farmers in Zhejiang Province. Then we use factor analysis to analyze 141 questionnaire, extracted four common factors from 16 risk variables. At last we classified agricultural supply chain risk into 4 risks: supply risk, production and management risk, cooperation and market risk and external environment risk.
2. Risk assessment:We determined the supply chain evaluation index system, built an F-AHP model, used empirical data to evaluate current agricultural supply chain risk. We had the following conclusions. (1)According to the AHP method, we get the weighted risk orders:Demand risk> Production and manage risk> Supply risk> External environmental risks; (2)The overall agricultural supply chain risk level is on the high side. (3)The main 6 reasons which caused conclusions(2) are the greater degree of price volatility of production data, unreasonable daily management in production process, more serious production quality and safety problem, difficulty in dealing with market demand changes and market price fluctuations of agricultural products.
3. Risk Control:Based on risk identification and risk assessment result, this paper proposed a government leading suggestion. We proposed we should control the four agricultural supply chain risks from four agricultural support, agricultural insurance, rural specialized cooperative organizations construction and government regulations and through risk transfer and lost control.
引文
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