中国经济转型中城镇女性劳动供给行为分析
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摘要
经济转型对劳动力市场,尤其是女性劳动力市场造成了巨大的冲击。城市劳动妇女正在成为劳动力市场的一个弱势群体和城镇贫困人口的重要来源。解决女性失业和贫困问题,以及防止两性不平等的扩大,已成了当务之急。对女性劳动供给行为进行分析可为相关政策的制订提供微观基础。而国内对该课题尚缺乏全面深入的细致分析。本文首次从经济学的角度,对我国城镇女性的劳动供给行为模式及其决定因素进行了系统的研究。
本文的研究充分应用了现代劳动经济学和家庭经济学的研究成果。以共同偏好模型和集体博弈模型为代表的家庭劳动供给模型为分析我国女性劳动供给行为提供了理论基础。微观经济计量技术的发展则提供了实证工具。
在综合前人理论和实证研究成果的基础上,本文对我国建国以来的女性劳动供给状况及其历史背景进行了回顾,并在理论上分析了两性收入差距的扩大、家务劳动市场化、教育的增长以及离婚率上升等对女性劳动参与决策的不同影响。
本文随后应用计量经济学的分析方法,在微观层面上对我国城镇女性的个体劳动供给行为进行实证分析,可靠性高、连续性强、样本量大的数据为本文的实证研究提供了便利。
在实证部分首先利用了横截面的微观数据对共同偏好模型在我国的适用性进行了检验,并发现就我国有小孩的家庭而言,家庭的内聚力仍足以维系稳定的家庭单一效用函数,共同偏好模型对分析我国这类家庭中的女性劳动供给行为而言仍然适用。此外,研究还应用了Heckman(1979)两阶段法对潜在市场工资水平进行了估算,并在此基础上计算出了女性劳动供给的工资弹性和收入弹性。研究发现潜在市场工资水平越高,女性的劳动参与概率越大,劳动供给曲线没有出现后弯的倾向;并且我国女性劳动参与的总工资弹性、补偿性工资弹性以及收入弹性的绝对值都不大。
对劳动供给行为的更深入研究,使本文发现劳动供给行为中存在着显著的性别差异。这不仅仅是由于两性的个人特征存在差异,还由于劳动力市场对两性存在差别选择。应用扩展的就业状况多重选择的Multinomial Logit模型对横截面数据进行回归后发现,性别的影响非常显著,不仅能够对就业状况产生直接影响,还能够通过其他变量,包括了教育、小孩数、婚姻等变量,对就业状况的选择产
The labor market has been experiencing great changes during transition period in urban China. The change is even greater for women than for men. Chinese urban women are becoming a source of disadvantaged minority and urban poverty. It's imperative to solve the problem of unemployment and poverty for women, and to keep the gender gap from widening. The analyses of female labor supply can lay micro foundation for policy-making. While there lacks all-around and profound analysis domestically, we attempt to reveal the mode and determinative factors for female labor supply in urban China from economic perspective by systematical investigation.Our dissertation is based on the research findings of contemporaneous labor economics and family economics. The family labor supply models, represented by common preference models and collective bargaining models, lay the theoretical foundation for our investigation, and the micro econometric techniques furnish us with essential empirical tools.Keeping these theories in mind, we retrospect on the change of female labor supply status and its history background, and then analyze the effect on female labor force participation caused by the enlargement of income gender gap, the marketlization of housework, the higher lever of education, as well as the growth of divorce rate.In the following part, we apply the econometric techniques in analyzing individual female labor supply empirically. Owing to the abundant data base, we can carry out both cross-sectional analysis and pooled cross-sectional analysis.Firstly, we use the micro data in cross-section to test whether the common preference model is still applicable in urban China. As the pooling hypothesis cannot be rejected in those families with children younger than 18 years old, we come to the conclusion that common preference model is still suitable for us to use in those families in urban China. By two stage least squares estimation, we predict the potential market wage, and calculate both the wage elasticity and income elasticity.
We find that the female labor force participation probability is positively correlated with her potential market wage; and the absolute value of the gross wage elasticity, the compensated wage elasticity, and the income elasticity are all small.By further analysis, we find that there exist significant gender disparities in labor supply behavior. These gender disparities lie not only in character disparities but also in different reaction to changes in labor market. By multinomial logit model, we analyze the choice among the following three states: employment, unemployment and out of labor force. We find that the gender variable can influence labor supply significantly both directly and indirectly. Education, number of kids, and marriage can have different effect on males and females. Discouraged worker effect is significant both for males and for females, but for females this kind of effect is much more prominent.There exists a pair of contradictions when comparing cross-sectional data set with time series data set. Change of variables cannot explain the change of female labor force participation rate in time series. By estimation of labor force participation function based on pooled cross sectional data, we find that the coefficient effect is significant. Both the relationship between married women's labor supply and her human capital accumulation, and the relationship between her labor supply and number of kid are becoming tighter. The reason for the change lies in decentralization of the right of labor supply decision. Workers will be more sensitive to changes of economic variables in transitional period than in pre-reform era. Estimation results also indicate a growing reluctance of married women to be dependent on their husband's incomes. By further analysis based on Blinder—Oaxaca decomposition, we find that the change of labor supply function can explain most of the change in female labor force participation rate. Another important finding is that, female labor supply behavior has changed step by step, and the later period in economic transition has experienced greater changes.Our conclusion is that the decline of female labor force participation rate is not the result of increase of income gender gap, but the result of severe labor market status. So it's time for us to adopt some efficient measures, including increasing labor
demand, improving female labor supply, and constituting some effective bearing-insurance systems, so as to improve female labor market status and their economic welfare.
本文的研究充分应用了现代劳动经济学和家庭经济学的研究成果。以共同偏好模型和集体博弈模型为代表的家庭劳动供给模型为分析我国女性劳动供给行为提供了理论基础。微观经济计量技术的发展则提供了实证工具。
在综合前人理论和实证研究成果的基础上,本文对我国建国以来的女性劳动供给状况及其历史背景进行了回顾,并在理论上分析了两性收入差距的扩大、家务劳动市场化、教育的增长以及离婚率上升等对女性劳动参与决策的不同影响。
本文随后应用计量经济学的分析方法,在微观层面上对我国城镇女性的个体劳动供给行为进行实证分析,可靠性高、连续性强、样本量大的数据为本文的实证研究提供了便利。
在实证部分首先利用了横截面的微观数据对共同偏好模型在我国的适用性进行了检验,并发现就我国有小孩的家庭而言,家庭的内聚力仍足以维系稳定的家庭单一效用函数,共同偏好模型对分析我国这类家庭中的女性劳动供给行为而言仍然适用。此外,研究还应用了Heckman(1979)两阶段法对潜在市场工资水平进行了估算,并在此基础上计算出了女性劳动供给的工资弹性和收入弹性。研究发现潜在市场工资水平越高,女性的劳动参与概率越大,劳动供给曲线没有出现后弯的倾向;并且我国女性劳动参与的总工资弹性、补偿性工资弹性以及收入弹性的绝对值都不大。
对劳动供给行为的更深入研究,使本文发现劳动供给行为中存在着显著的性别差异。这不仅仅是由于两性的个人特征存在差异,还由于劳动力市场对两性存在差别选择。应用扩展的就业状况多重选择的Multinomial Logit模型对横截面数据进行回归后发现,性别的影响非常显著,不仅能够对就业状况产生直接影响,还能够通过其他变量,包括了教育、小孩数、婚姻等变量,对就业状况的选择产
The labor market has been experiencing great changes during transition period in urban China. The change is even greater for women than for men. Chinese urban women are becoming a source of disadvantaged minority and urban poverty. It's imperative to solve the problem of unemployment and poverty for women, and to keep the gender gap from widening. The analyses of female labor supply can lay micro foundation for policy-making. While there lacks all-around and profound analysis domestically, we attempt to reveal the mode and determinative factors for female labor supply in urban China from economic perspective by systematical investigation.Our dissertation is based on the research findings of contemporaneous labor economics and family economics. The family labor supply models, represented by common preference models and collective bargaining models, lay the theoretical foundation for our investigation, and the micro econometric techniques furnish us with essential empirical tools.Keeping these theories in mind, we retrospect on the change of female labor supply status and its history background, and then analyze the effect on female labor force participation caused by the enlargement of income gender gap, the marketlization of housework, the higher lever of education, as well as the growth of divorce rate.In the following part, we apply the econometric techniques in analyzing individual female labor supply empirically. Owing to the abundant data base, we can carry out both cross-sectional analysis and pooled cross-sectional analysis.Firstly, we use the micro data in cross-section to test whether the common preference model is still applicable in urban China. As the pooling hypothesis cannot be rejected in those families with children younger than 18 years old, we come to the conclusion that common preference model is still suitable for us to use in those families in urban China. By two stage least squares estimation, we predict the potential market wage, and calculate both the wage elasticity and income elasticity.
We find that the female labor force participation probability is positively correlated with her potential market wage; and the absolute value of the gross wage elasticity, the compensated wage elasticity, and the income elasticity are all small.By further analysis, we find that there exist significant gender disparities in labor supply behavior. These gender disparities lie not only in character disparities but also in different reaction to changes in labor market. By multinomial logit model, we analyze the choice among the following three states: employment, unemployment and out of labor force. We find that the gender variable can influence labor supply significantly both directly and indirectly. Education, number of kids, and marriage can have different effect on males and females. Discouraged worker effect is significant both for males and for females, but for females this kind of effect is much more prominent.There exists a pair of contradictions when comparing cross-sectional data set with time series data set. Change of variables cannot explain the change of female labor force participation rate in time series. By estimation of labor force participation function based on pooled cross sectional data, we find that the coefficient effect is significant. Both the relationship between married women's labor supply and her human capital accumulation, and the relationship between her labor supply and number of kid are becoming tighter. The reason for the change lies in decentralization of the right of labor supply decision. Workers will be more sensitive to changes of economic variables in transitional period than in pre-reform era. Estimation results also indicate a growing reluctance of married women to be dependent on their husband's incomes. By further analysis based on Blinder—Oaxaca decomposition, we find that the change of labor supply function can explain most of the change in female labor force participation rate. Another important finding is that, female labor supply behavior has changed step by step, and the later period in economic transition has experienced greater changes.Our conclusion is that the decline of female labor force participation rate is not the result of increase of income gender gap, but the result of severe labor market status. So it's time for us to adopt some efficient measures, including increasing labor
demand, improving female labor supply, and constituting some effective bearing-insurance systems, so as to improve female labor market status and their economic welfare.
引文
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