历史城区建筑遗产公共安全事件预警研究
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摘要
历史城区建筑遗产是传承历史文脉的鲜活载体,也是人类社会发展的宝贵财富。近年来,国家对历史城区建筑遗产给予了高度重视。由于缺乏先进的科学技术支持,没有实时监控和预警系统,加上重开发、轻保护的方式,历史城区建筑遗产的真实性和完整性受到了严重损害。因此,建立历史城区建筑遗产公共安全预警机制已刻不容缓。本文结合国家“十五”重点科技攻关项目进行了应用研究。
首先,分析提出了历史城区建筑遗产公共安全管理体系建设的总体目标、实施步骤、基本原则、组织框架和系统结构。
其次,分析了历史城区建筑遗产面临的主要灾害事件和形成原因;界定了历史城区建筑遗产公共安全事件的概念特征;建立了基于建筑安全事件、环境安全事件和风貌安全事件的历史城区建筑遗产公共安全事件识别模块;并根据灾害风险分析原理,对历史城区建筑遗产公共安全事件的风险构成因素、风险形成机制、风险分析内容和风险分析流程进行了研究。
然后,提出了历史城区建筑遗产公共安全可持续预警管理系统和预警管理流程;重点分析构建了历史城区建筑遗产公共安全事件预警的数学模型、指标体系和评价标准,提出了基于DEA模型的历史城区建筑遗产公共安全预警评价方法。
最后,以武汉市青山区街坊建筑遗产为例进行了实证评价和安全预警,并针对青山区的实际情况,提出了青山区建筑遗产公共安全管理的组织框架、预警管理流程和预警管理系统。
Building heritages in historic city are lively carriers of cultural context, as well as valuable fortune of human society. Recent years, our country has attached much importance to building heritage. Without enough advanced science & technology, real-time monitoring and pre-warning system, in addition, more development and less protection, the authenticity and integrality of building heritages were severely destroyed. Therefore, it is emergent to construct pre-warning mechanism for public safety of building heritage in historic city. Based on national key science & technology program, this thesis applied researched on pre-warning for public safety events of building heritage in historic city.
Firstly, the overall objective, implementation step, core principle, organization framework, and system structure were analyzed and put forward for building heritage protection in historic city.
Secondly, primary disasters and the formation causation were analyzed. The conception of "public safety events of building heritage in historic city" was set up. The identification module of events was put forward based on building safety, environment safety, and feature safety. According to disaster risk theory, the factors, mechanism, content, and flow for public safety risk of building heritage in historic city were studied.
Thirdly, sustainable pre-warning system and pre-warning processing were put forward. What’s most important, the mathematical model, indicator system, appraisal criterion, and appraisal method based on DEA model for pre-warning were set up.
Finally, the building heritages of Qingshan district in Wuhan were analyzed. The pre-warning of public safety events was applied on Qingshan. The organization framework, pre-warning flow, and management system for building heritage protection in Qingshan were set up.
首先,分析提出了历史城区建筑遗产公共安全管理体系建设的总体目标、实施步骤、基本原则、组织框架和系统结构。
其次,分析了历史城区建筑遗产面临的主要灾害事件和形成原因;界定了历史城区建筑遗产公共安全事件的概念特征;建立了基于建筑安全事件、环境安全事件和风貌安全事件的历史城区建筑遗产公共安全事件识别模块;并根据灾害风险分析原理,对历史城区建筑遗产公共安全事件的风险构成因素、风险形成机制、风险分析内容和风险分析流程进行了研究。
然后,提出了历史城区建筑遗产公共安全可持续预警管理系统和预警管理流程;重点分析构建了历史城区建筑遗产公共安全事件预警的数学模型、指标体系和评价标准,提出了基于DEA模型的历史城区建筑遗产公共安全预警评价方法。
最后,以武汉市青山区街坊建筑遗产为例进行了实证评价和安全预警,并针对青山区的实际情况,提出了青山区建筑遗产公共安全管理的组织框架、预警管理流程和预警管理系统。
Building heritages in historic city are lively carriers of cultural context, as well as valuable fortune of human society. Recent years, our country has attached much importance to building heritage. Without enough advanced science & technology, real-time monitoring and pre-warning system, in addition, more development and less protection, the authenticity and integrality of building heritages were severely destroyed. Therefore, it is emergent to construct pre-warning mechanism for public safety of building heritage in historic city. Based on national key science & technology program, this thesis applied researched on pre-warning for public safety events of building heritage in historic city.
Firstly, the overall objective, implementation step, core principle, organization framework, and system structure were analyzed and put forward for building heritage protection in historic city.
Secondly, primary disasters and the formation causation were analyzed. The conception of "public safety events of building heritage in historic city" was set up. The identification module of events was put forward based on building safety, environment safety, and feature safety. According to disaster risk theory, the factors, mechanism, content, and flow for public safety risk of building heritage in historic city were studied.
Thirdly, sustainable pre-warning system and pre-warning processing were put forward. What’s most important, the mathematical model, indicator system, appraisal criterion, and appraisal method based on DEA model for pre-warning were set up.
Finally, the building heritages of Qingshan district in Wuhan were analyzed. The pre-warning of public safety events was applied on Qingshan. The organization framework, pre-warning flow, and management system for building heritage protection in Qingshan were set up.
引文
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[17] Sage P, White E B. Methodologies for risk and hazard assessment: A survey and status report. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 1980, 10(8): 425-446
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[21]孙绍骋.灾害评估研究内容与方法探讨.地理科学进展, 2001, 20(2): 122-127
[22] Zimmerman R. Historical and future perspectives on risk perception and communication. Risk Research and Management in Asian Perspective (Proceedings of the First China-Japan Conference on Risk Assessment and Management, Beijing, November 23-26, 1998) . Beijing: International Academic Publishers, 481-487
[23]史培军,黄崇富,叶涛等.建立中国综合风险管理体系.中国减灾, 2005(2): 34-36
[24]阮仪三,王景慧,王林.历史文化名城保护理论与规划.上海:同济大学出版社, 1999. 12-36
[25]孟繁兴.古建筑保护与研究.北京:知识产权出版社, 2006. 25-31
[26]阮仪三.城市遗产保护论.上海:上海科学技术出版社, 2005. 3-68
[27]罗哲文.中国古代建筑.上海:上海古籍出版社, 2001. 5-20
[28]范文兵.上海里弄的保护与更新.上海:上海科学技术出版社, 2004. 8-86
[29]罗哲文.历史文化名城与古建筑保护文集.北京:中国建筑工业出版社, 2003. 5-34
[30]金磊.古建筑保护中的防灾减灾问题综论.灾害学, 1997, 12(4): 59-64
[31]冯勇智.空中指挥所.北京:军事科学出版社, 2000. 23-46
[32]顾海兵.中国工农业经济预警.北京:中国计划出版社, 1992. 27-34
[33]项静恬,林寅,王军.经济周期波动的监测和预警.北京:中国标准出版社, 2000. 22-40
[34]亚洲开发银行.金融危机早期预警系统及其在东亚地区的运用.北京:中国金融出版社, 2006. 37-42
[35]阎耀军.现代实证性社会预警.北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2005. 35-40
[36]王慧敏.资源-环境-经济符合系统诊断预警方法与应用.北京:科学出版社, 2007. 16-23
[37]王金南.环境安全管理.北京:科学出版社, 2007. 42-51
[38]佘廉.企业预警管理实务.石家庄:河北科学技术出版社, 1999. 25-38
[39]张鸣,张艳,程涛.企业财务预警研究前沿.北京:中国财政经济出版社, 2004. 13-40
[40]野田武辉.企业危机预警.北京:时事出版社, 1999. 35-40
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