我国财政政策传导机制与动态有效性的计量研究
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摘要
作为宏观经济政策的主要形式,财政政策一直是政府对于经济进行直接调控的主要政策方式,也是实现需求管理的主要工具。然而长期以来,在政府实施财政政策能否产生预期政策效果的问题上,不同的经济学派对此表示不同的看法。财政政策的有效性、灵敏性和稳健性成为当前宏观经济学家争论的焦点,围绕着这一问题的理论和实证研究仍然是宏观经济学中非常活跃和重要的一个领域。
我国自实行改革开放、拉开由集中的计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制转轨的序幕以来,开始在真正意义上执行具有市场经济特征的财政政策。不可否认,这一系列的财政政策对于我国调整经济结构、提高居民收入、促进经济持续快速增长发挥了重要的作用。同时,近三十年的财政政策实践经验也表明,在我国这样一个经济转轨国家,不完善的市场经济制度必然会通过财政政策传导机制影响财政政策效应的发挥。
本文以财政政策理论为基础,以我国财政政策实践为出发点,对我国财政政策的传导机制与动态有效性进行经济计量分析,并以此为我国制定合理有效的财政政策提供参考依据。本文的研究主要沿着以下几个方面展开:
一、对西方经济学派的财政政策主张和国内外财政政策的有效性研究进行系统的梳理,并对我国改革开放以来的财政政策实践进行了回顾。
二、在IS-LM模型框架下对财政政策效应进行了详细的数理推导和分析。
三、引入“政策中性”命题和“李嘉图等价”命题,在模型框架下分析财政政策无效的作用机理,并进一步利用SVAR模型验证了李嘉图等价命题在我国经济当中并不成立。
四、研究了常用于大型宏观经济模型中的几类财政政策规则的短期动态和长期均衡特性,进一步利用时间一致性理论对我国财政政策与宏观经济波动之间的影响关系展开实证分析,并据此给出我国财政政策的取向选择建议。
五、研究财政政策的传导机制,通过分析财政政策工具变量与收入分配、货币供给和价格等中介变量之间的长期均衡关系和短期波动影响,从而检验我国财政政策作用的传导实效。
六、研究财政政策的产出效应,利用时变参数模型分别估计并计算得到动态的财政政策乘数和货币需求相对于实际产出的弹性系数,从而检验我国财政政策对总产出的“乘数效应”和“紧缩效应”。
As the main form of macroeconomic policy, fiscal policy has been the main policy by which the government directly adjusts the economy. Moreover, fiscal policy is the main tool to achieve demand management. However, on the issue of whether the implementation of fiscal policy can produce the expected effect, different schools expressed different views. The effectiveness, sensitivity and stability of fiscal policy became the focus of debate in macroeconomic area.
Theoretical and empirical researches surrounding this issue are still very active and important. Since the reform and opening-up of China, the prelude of transition from a centralized planned economy to a socialist market economic system opened, and then fiscal policy with market economy characteristics was implemented. Admittedly, this series of fiscal policy have played an important role in following aspects: adjusting the economic structure, raising incomes and promoting sustained and rapid economic growth. At the same time, three decades of fiscal policy experience also indicated that in our economic transition country, imperfect market economy is bound to affect the effect of fiscal policy through fiscal policy transmission mechanism.
In this paper, based on the theory of fiscal policy, starting at the practice of fiscal policy, econometric analyses of transmission mechanism and dynamic effectiveness for China’s fiscal policy have been made, and thereby to provide reference of constitute reasonable and effective fiscal policy.
This study mainly along the following aspects:
In chapterⅠ, we expounded the Western fiscal policy propositions and researches on the effectiveness of fiscal policy systematically, and undertook a review of fiscal policy practice since China’s reform and opening-up. In different historical stages, people took different macroeconomic adjusted measures to cope with different macroeconomic conditions, and then different viewpoints of fiscal policy came into being, so as to lay the foundation for the theory of modern macroeconomics. Our government's macro-control of fiscal policy revealed a very significant transformative feature through three decades of reform and opening-up, experienced the changes from plan-based control to market-based control, and the national economy gradually presented a good development trend.
In chapterⅡ, using dynamic IS-LM model, we analyzed the function mechanism and effect of fiscal policy, so provided theoretical supports for the later empirical research. IS-LM model, which initiated by the Hicks and promoted by Samuelson, has been widely used to make macroeconomic analyses. It used method of general equilibrium analysis and is the effective tool for fiscal policy research. This chapter based on the framework of IS-LM model to analyze the influence of IS curve slope and LM curve slope on fiscal policy. Then, we extended IS-LM model to the open economic system and found the Mundell-Fleming model. Finally, we used Mundell-Fleming model to further analyze the effect of fiscal policy in an open economy. In chapterⅢ, we introduced‘Policy neutral’proposition and the‘Ricardian Equivalence’proposition, and analyzed the ineffective mechanism of fiscal policy under model frameworks.
Further more, we set up SVAR model which included the fiscal expenditure, tax revenue and output, so the fiscal variables’dynamic effect to output can be analyzed through impulse response. Comparative analysis of fiscal expenditure shock and tax revenue shock drove a conclusion that, the valid term of tax policy is limited and apt to cause violent fluctuations in output, so tax policy is unfavorable to sustain the stable development of economy. Compared with this, increasing fiscal expenditure can bring longer expansionary effect to the output, and doesn’t exsit repeated fluctuations, so the active fiscal policy which taking expanding government expenditure as the main instrument can effectively accelerate the economic growth of our country, Ricardian Equivalence Proposition is untenable.
In chapterⅣ, we studied the choice of fiscal policy between abiding by rules and discretion, which is the vital factor that fiscal policy can achieve the desired effect. Fiscal policy rules that enforce the government’s intertemporal budget constraint are the basic elements of macroeconomic models. We can prevent frequent changes of policy instruments by setting specific fiscal policy rules, so as to maintain the stability of fiscal policy at a certain extent. Discretionary fiscal policy, which following the counter-cyclical macro-management idea, requires the government take different fiscal measures to stabilize and develop economy. We analyzed short-term dynamic and long-run equilibrium properties of several fiscal policy rules which were usually used in large-scale macroecnomic model, and further tested the influencing relationship between fiscal policy and macroeconomic fluctuation by using the time consistency theory. The empirical result shown that the change in fiscal expenditure of discretionary fiscal policy is the reason of economic fluctuations, so fiscal policy should play as automatic stabilizer, in order to avoid economic instability brought by discretionary policy.
In chapterⅤ, we studied the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy. Through the analysis of long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term fluctuations between fiscal policy variables and intermediate variables, such as income distribution, money supply and prices, the transmission effectiveness of our fiscal policy was examined. As monetary policy needs to achieve its effects through a complex transmission process, the fiscal policy also needs a complex process from the policy instruments to policy objectives through the intermediate variables. Effectiveness of fiscal policy depends not only on the correctness of the policy itself, but also on the policy transmission process flow or not. The research on this chapter shown that our fiscal policy can operate through the transmission channel of income distribution, money supply and price. At the same time, the effectiveness of fiscal policy transmission mechanism is also subject to the satisfactory level of market policies such as environment. Scientific content and good environment of policy are the guarantee of fiscal policy to achieve the goal smoothly and completely.
In chapterⅥ, we took research about fiscal policy's function mechanism and effectiveness. Firstly, using State Space model, we estimated the time-varying parameter sequence of magrginal consumption incline, and further calculated the dynamic multiplier of fiscal policy. The result shown that our fiscal expenditure multiplier ranged between 1.55 to 1.9 and presented upward trend after 1994. It reflected the effect of our fiscal policy is gradually enhanced and the macroeconomic control capability of our government is gradually matured. Second, Using Cointegration Test which has a fixed coefficient and ECM models, we estimated long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations of the monetary demand function, and found the existence of contractionary effects in our fiscal policy. Finally, using the time varying parameter models, we estimated the elastic coefficients of monetary demand respect to output, and found that there were the contractionary effects before 1996, and then it disappeared slowly after 1996. Therefore, during the implementation of the active fiscal policy, we should pay attention to adjust the term structure of policy and use a variety of policy tools, thereby reducing the possibility of contractionary effects.
So,the paper aims at studying the fiscal policy and finding out the typical facts in the economic experiences in our country. And by giving the detailed introduction and the induction to the research in the areas, we will distinguish the true facts in the fiscal theories and find the meanings and revelation of the fiscal policy in our country, which help our government to constitute the effective macroeconomic policies.
我国自实行改革开放、拉开由集中的计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制转轨的序幕以来,开始在真正意义上执行具有市场经济特征的财政政策。不可否认,这一系列的财政政策对于我国调整经济结构、提高居民收入、促进经济持续快速增长发挥了重要的作用。同时,近三十年的财政政策实践经验也表明,在我国这样一个经济转轨国家,不完善的市场经济制度必然会通过财政政策传导机制影响财政政策效应的发挥。
本文以财政政策理论为基础,以我国财政政策实践为出发点,对我国财政政策的传导机制与动态有效性进行经济计量分析,并以此为我国制定合理有效的财政政策提供参考依据。本文的研究主要沿着以下几个方面展开:
一、对西方经济学派的财政政策主张和国内外财政政策的有效性研究进行系统的梳理,并对我国改革开放以来的财政政策实践进行了回顾。
二、在IS-LM模型框架下对财政政策效应进行了详细的数理推导和分析。
三、引入“政策中性”命题和“李嘉图等价”命题,在模型框架下分析财政政策无效的作用机理,并进一步利用SVAR模型验证了李嘉图等价命题在我国经济当中并不成立。
四、研究了常用于大型宏观经济模型中的几类财政政策规则的短期动态和长期均衡特性,进一步利用时间一致性理论对我国财政政策与宏观经济波动之间的影响关系展开实证分析,并据此给出我国财政政策的取向选择建议。
五、研究财政政策的传导机制,通过分析财政政策工具变量与收入分配、货币供给和价格等中介变量之间的长期均衡关系和短期波动影响,从而检验我国财政政策作用的传导实效。
六、研究财政政策的产出效应,利用时变参数模型分别估计并计算得到动态的财政政策乘数和货币需求相对于实际产出的弹性系数,从而检验我国财政政策对总产出的“乘数效应”和“紧缩效应”。
As the main form of macroeconomic policy, fiscal policy has been the main policy by which the government directly adjusts the economy. Moreover, fiscal policy is the main tool to achieve demand management. However, on the issue of whether the implementation of fiscal policy can produce the expected effect, different schools expressed different views. The effectiveness, sensitivity and stability of fiscal policy became the focus of debate in macroeconomic area.
Theoretical and empirical researches surrounding this issue are still very active and important. Since the reform and opening-up of China, the prelude of transition from a centralized planned economy to a socialist market economic system opened, and then fiscal policy with market economy characteristics was implemented. Admittedly, this series of fiscal policy have played an important role in following aspects: adjusting the economic structure, raising incomes and promoting sustained and rapid economic growth. At the same time, three decades of fiscal policy experience also indicated that in our economic transition country, imperfect market economy is bound to affect the effect of fiscal policy through fiscal policy transmission mechanism.
In this paper, based on the theory of fiscal policy, starting at the practice of fiscal policy, econometric analyses of transmission mechanism and dynamic effectiveness for China’s fiscal policy have been made, and thereby to provide reference of constitute reasonable and effective fiscal policy.
This study mainly along the following aspects:
In chapterⅠ, we expounded the Western fiscal policy propositions and researches on the effectiveness of fiscal policy systematically, and undertook a review of fiscal policy practice since China’s reform and opening-up. In different historical stages, people took different macroeconomic adjusted measures to cope with different macroeconomic conditions, and then different viewpoints of fiscal policy came into being, so as to lay the foundation for the theory of modern macroeconomics. Our government's macro-control of fiscal policy revealed a very significant transformative feature through three decades of reform and opening-up, experienced the changes from plan-based control to market-based control, and the national economy gradually presented a good development trend.
In chapterⅡ, using dynamic IS-LM model, we analyzed the function mechanism and effect of fiscal policy, so provided theoretical supports for the later empirical research. IS-LM model, which initiated by the Hicks and promoted by Samuelson, has been widely used to make macroeconomic analyses. It used method of general equilibrium analysis and is the effective tool for fiscal policy research. This chapter based on the framework of IS-LM model to analyze the influence of IS curve slope and LM curve slope on fiscal policy. Then, we extended IS-LM model to the open economic system and found the Mundell-Fleming model. Finally, we used Mundell-Fleming model to further analyze the effect of fiscal policy in an open economy. In chapterⅢ, we introduced‘Policy neutral’proposition and the‘Ricardian Equivalence’proposition, and analyzed the ineffective mechanism of fiscal policy under model frameworks.
Further more, we set up SVAR model which included the fiscal expenditure, tax revenue and output, so the fiscal variables’dynamic effect to output can be analyzed through impulse response. Comparative analysis of fiscal expenditure shock and tax revenue shock drove a conclusion that, the valid term of tax policy is limited and apt to cause violent fluctuations in output, so tax policy is unfavorable to sustain the stable development of economy. Compared with this, increasing fiscal expenditure can bring longer expansionary effect to the output, and doesn’t exsit repeated fluctuations, so the active fiscal policy which taking expanding government expenditure as the main instrument can effectively accelerate the economic growth of our country, Ricardian Equivalence Proposition is untenable.
In chapterⅣ, we studied the choice of fiscal policy between abiding by rules and discretion, which is the vital factor that fiscal policy can achieve the desired effect. Fiscal policy rules that enforce the government’s intertemporal budget constraint are the basic elements of macroeconomic models. We can prevent frequent changes of policy instruments by setting specific fiscal policy rules, so as to maintain the stability of fiscal policy at a certain extent. Discretionary fiscal policy, which following the counter-cyclical macro-management idea, requires the government take different fiscal measures to stabilize and develop economy. We analyzed short-term dynamic and long-run equilibrium properties of several fiscal policy rules which were usually used in large-scale macroecnomic model, and further tested the influencing relationship between fiscal policy and macroeconomic fluctuation by using the time consistency theory. The empirical result shown that the change in fiscal expenditure of discretionary fiscal policy is the reason of economic fluctuations, so fiscal policy should play as automatic stabilizer, in order to avoid economic instability brought by discretionary policy.
In chapterⅤ, we studied the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy. Through the analysis of long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term fluctuations between fiscal policy variables and intermediate variables, such as income distribution, money supply and prices, the transmission effectiveness of our fiscal policy was examined. As monetary policy needs to achieve its effects through a complex transmission process, the fiscal policy also needs a complex process from the policy instruments to policy objectives through the intermediate variables. Effectiveness of fiscal policy depends not only on the correctness of the policy itself, but also on the policy transmission process flow or not. The research on this chapter shown that our fiscal policy can operate through the transmission channel of income distribution, money supply and price. At the same time, the effectiveness of fiscal policy transmission mechanism is also subject to the satisfactory level of market policies such as environment. Scientific content and good environment of policy are the guarantee of fiscal policy to achieve the goal smoothly and completely.
In chapterⅥ, we took research about fiscal policy's function mechanism and effectiveness. Firstly, using State Space model, we estimated the time-varying parameter sequence of magrginal consumption incline, and further calculated the dynamic multiplier of fiscal policy. The result shown that our fiscal expenditure multiplier ranged between 1.55 to 1.9 and presented upward trend after 1994. It reflected the effect of our fiscal policy is gradually enhanced and the macroeconomic control capability of our government is gradually matured. Second, Using Cointegration Test which has a fixed coefficient and ECM models, we estimated long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations of the monetary demand function, and found the existence of contractionary effects in our fiscal policy. Finally, using the time varying parameter models, we estimated the elastic coefficients of monetary demand respect to output, and found that there were the contractionary effects before 1996, and then it disappeared slowly after 1996. Therefore, during the implementation of the active fiscal policy, we should pay attention to adjust the term structure of policy and use a variety of policy tools, thereby reducing the possibility of contractionary effects.
So,the paper aims at studying the fiscal policy and finding out the typical facts in the economic experiences in our country. And by giving the detailed introduction and the induction to the research in the areas, we will distinguish the true facts in the fiscal theories and find the meanings and revelation of the fiscal policy in our country, which help our government to constitute the effective macroeconomic policies.
引文
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