中国承接国际软件外包的技术外溢效应研究
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摘要
随着全球经济社会的迅猛发展和信息技术的快速进步,人类社会正不可逆转地进入信息社会。软件业作为信息产业的核心,是国民经济的基础性和战略性产业,也是各国发展和竞争的重要领域。中国也不例外。
     由于历史抉择的原因,长期以来中国软件产业立足于自我研究,自我发展,但是发展速度十分缓慢。20世纪80年代开始,相继有一些跨国软件企业进入中国销售自己的软件产品,使得国内学者开始惊呼外资企业在许多软件领域占据垄断地位。近几年来,随着印度在承接国际软件外包上取得巨大成功,国内软件外包服务市场迅速发展。
     笔者收集了国内国际现有关于外包、服务外包、软件外包的文献1000余篇,进行了分析整理,发现关于国际软件外包的研究从微观的企业管理角度和宏观的发包国角度研究较多,从承接国角度研究较少;关于技术外溢的研究集中在制造业跨国转移过程中是否存在技术外溢、技术外溢的实现途径和影响技术外溢的因素,涉及软件外包这样的服务业领域的技术外溢研究较少;在少量涉及软件外包技术外溢问题的文献中,也基本上都是定性分析,论证充分的定量研究较少。
     笔者认为,对于承接国而言,在承接国际软件外包发展进程中,能否产生技术外溢效应是一个关系到自主创新能力提升的关键问题。从软件外包这一具体产业切入,很大意义上也可以看出服务外包的技术外溢效应。笔者认为,仅停留在定性分析的基础上讨论解决不了这一问题,应该从产业发展的前沿入手,开展基于企业一手资料基础上的实证研究,证实是否可以通过承接外包产生技术外溢效应。本文的目的也在于此。
     文章内容共分六章。
     第一章为选题背景。主要介绍选题背景、研究目的、研究结构、研究方法和研究的技术路径。
     第二章国际软件外包的发展背景及现状分析。笔者首先界定外包、服务外包、软件外包、国际软件外包等概念的内涵及彼此间的联系区别。通过追溯软件外包的发展历程,认为软件外包出现已有较长时间,并开始出现在岸外包向大范围、大规模的离岸外包发展态势。笔者认为,国际软件外包的发展趋势十分乐观,发包方主要集中在美国、欧盟、日本等发达国家,接包方主要集中在印度、爱尔兰等发展中国家。提出国际软件外包蓬勃发展的三大现实动因,一是竞争加剧是内因,企业为了降低成本、提高效率,不得不开展外包;二是技术进步是外因,信息技术的快速普及使得软件等服务成为可贸易品,降低了交易成本;三是政府态度是外部推动力,发包国和接包国在教育、就业、吸引投资等方面的政策有力地推动了外包的发展。之后分析国际软件外包的主要理论框架,认为经济全球化、国际分工、国家竞争力、服务贸易、服务业发展、企业多元化和归核化、产业集聚等理论为国际软件外包的产生和发展奠定了坚实的理论基础,可以用于分析软件外包。
     第三章中国承接国际软件外包的历程和发展现状。笔者对24家从事软件外包的内外资企业的高层管理人员进行了访谈,结合文献研究、媒体报道和企业信息,总结出中国承接国际软件外包的四种模式:跨国公司在中国设立的软件研发机构、跨国公司设立的市场开拓机构、本土纯粹承接国际软件外包业务的企业、本土研发型的外包企业。在此基础上,笔者对中国承接软件外包的现状进行了分析,认为尽管中国近年来承接国际软件外包发展快速,各主要研究机构对中国未来的承接趋势也持乐观态度,但不可否认的是,中国承接国际软件外包的总量小,企业规模较小,产品质量和附加值水平不高,市场过于集中在日本,软件外包企业主要集中于北京、上海、大连、西安等大城市。
     第四章承接国际软件外包的技术外溢效应分析。这是本论文的核心部分。笔者通过对104家中国企业问卷调查收集的数据实证分析发现,我国企业通过承接国际软件外包获得了技术外溢,提升了本土软件研发能力。在技术外溢的多种可能途径中,跨国公司的示范效应最显著,但目前发展状态下还难以证明技术外溢可以通过产业关联、产业集聚、人员流动和市场环境改善等渠道扩散。
     第五章提升中国承接国际软件外包能力的策略。笔者对我国承接国际软件外包可能产生影响的市场环境、制度环境、政治环境、企业能力和人才成本等5个因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,市场环境、制度环境和政治环境等宏观层面因素对中国承接国际软件外包的能力提升有显著影响,其中制度环境影响最大,其次是市场环境,再次是政治环境;而企业能力和人才成本等微观层面因素表现不显著。在此基础上,对中国承接国际软件外包的制约因素与印度进行了比较分析,并提出具体的政策建议。
     第六章结论。对前述分析进行归纳总结。由于软件外包是近年来出现国际服务业转移中的的新现象,从国内外研究现状看,对这一领域的研究还处于起步阶段,尤其是承接国是否能产生技术外溢效应的研究比较少,因此本论文的选题具有一定理论价值;从现实层面看,目前中国具备承接国际软件外包的资源禀赋和产业基础,如何能采取针对性措施,有效促进这一产业良性发展,具有重要的实践意义。
     在研究过程中,笔者注意到,国际软件外包发展时间还较短,国内外对此尚缺乏成熟的统计方法和统计体系,数据搜集非常困难。尽管笔者作了很大的努力收集到许多一手资料,但从截面角度讲是否能真实反映这一行业发展现状,从纵向角度讲是否能客观体现这一行业的发展趋势,还需要进一步加以跟踪研究。
With the rapid development of the global economy and the information technology, the mankind has been in an information sociality unreversely. As the core of the information industry, the software industry is the basic and strategic industry of the national economy, it is the important develop and contest area for every country. It is also for China.
     The software industry developed by self in China for a long time, it grew slowly. After more and more international software enterprises came to China to sale their software products in 1980s, many scholars said that the international enterprises had been the monopolistic position. After undertaking the international software outsourcing had a big success in India, it developed quickly in China in these years.
     The author collected and analysised over 1000 articles which did research on outsourcing, service outsourcing and software outsourcing. He found more articles focused on the micro enterperises management and macro outsourcer countries, less focused on the outsourcee countries. More focused on the technology overflow of manufacture international transfer, less focused on the technology overflow of service industry, such as software. More used qualitative analysis; less used quantitative study in the fewer articles which involved in the technology overflow in software outsourcing.
     By the author‘s opinion, whether it had technology overflow effects or not by undertaking the international software outsourcing in the outsourcee countries, it is a key problem which would be relate to the ability of independent innovation. It will be helpful for the research on the technology overflow effects in service outsourcing. We can‘t solve the problem if we stepped arguing on the base of quality analisys. So we should do some empirical study that based on the first-hand data from the enterprises. That is the main object of the article. It examines the effect of technology overflow in China international software outsourcing.
     The article includes six chapters.
     As the introduction, Chapter 1 outlined the research background, subject and aims as well as basic framework of the thesis.
     Chapter 2 focused on the background of the international software outsourcing and the analysis of the status quo. The author defines and differentiates the notions of outsourcing, service outsourcing and software outsourcing firstly. He tracks the history of software outsourcing, he finds that software outsourcing has been done for a long time, and has a trendency from on-site outsourcing to offshore outsourcing. He thinks that the development of international software outsourcing is encouraging. The outsourcers concentrate in the developed world such as The US, EU and Japan and the outsourcees are mainly developing countries like India and Ireland.The author reviews the theory background of international software outsourcing and notes that economic globalizing, international work division, national competence, service trade, service development, theories of multi- business, core business and industry clusters lay a solid foundation for the rise and growth of international software outsourcing. He finds out three engines for the robust growth of international software outsourcing. First, competition escalation is the inside reason. Enterprises have to outsource to reduce cost, distract risks and explore new markets. Second, technology progress is the outside force. The rapid dissemination of information technology makes software a tradable product and this helps reduce the trade cost between countries and enhance efficiency. Third, the government attitude is the external propulsion. The policies of outsourcers and outsourcees in the aspects of education, employment and investment attraction promote outsourcing greatly.
     Chapter 3 included the history of undertaking international software outsourcing in China and the conditions nowadays. The author interviewed 24 high level managers in the outsourcee enterprisens. On the basis of voluminous field study the author discovers four modes of how China undertakes international outsourcing: China-based multinational software R&D center, marketing agencies set up by multinationals, local enterprises engaged in outsourcing businesses only and local R&D-based outsourcees. The author holds that China undertakes international software outsourcing in small volume but at a rapid growth rate, that the outsourcees are relatively small-scaled ones which only make products of low added value and medium quality, which the markets are disproportionately in large cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Dalian and Xi‘an.
     Chapter 4 did the research on the technology overflow in undertaking international software outsourcing in China. It is the key point of the thesis. The author discovers after a survey on 104 Chinese enterprises that Chinese corporation realizes the effect of technology overflow in undertaking international software outsourcing and in doing so promotes its R&D capability. Among the possible paths of technology overflow effect, the demonstration effect by multinationals is most outstanding. Evidence is absent; however, that technology overflow can expand through industry linkage, industry cluster, and work force flow and market improvement.
     Chapter 5 focused on the strategy how to take up the Chinese ability to undertake the international software outsourcing. The author then analyses five factors that might influence China international software outsourcing, namely, market environment, institution environment, political environment, corporation competence and talents cost. The result shows that macros like market, institution and politics impose a significant impact on competence promotion; institution is the most influential in this regard. Following is market and politics. Micros like corporation competence and talents cost are less contributive. The author wraps up with some practical policy suggestions.
     As the concluding parts of the thesis, Chapter 6 concluded the analysis before.
     Because the software outsourcing is a new phenomenon in the international service transfer, there is no more research that focused on it, especially on the technology overflow. So the thesis has some theory value. It also has some practicle value for the industry development; China has the resource advantage and industry basement to undertake the software outsourcing. If the government takes some good measures, it will be helpful for the software industry development.
     During the research period, the author took note that it is difficult to collect the data of the industry as it developed in a short period; there is not the good statistics method to do it. Although the author tried his best to collect so many materials from the enterprises; it is hard to say that the materials could reflect the fact and trend of the industry. We should do more research on it later.
引文
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    ① 中国社会科学院工业经济研究所课题组:《全球外包发展:趋势、影响与我国的对策》,《学术动态(研究报告版)》,2007 年第 29 期
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    ① 曲玲年等:《印度软件产业考察报告》,载 www.cei.gov.cn,2005
    ② 李治岐:《2006 年中国软件外包市场现况研究报告》,韩国软件振兴院北京代表处内部报告,2006
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    ③ WTO,“World Trade Report 2005”,2005
    ④ 目前的研究口径主要有三种,一是以 IT/ITES 为口径,二是以 BPO 为口径,三是以离岸软件外包为口径。
    ⑤ UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ④ 邓立:《发展软件和服务外包对中国经济和社会发展影响深远》,《中国经济时报》,2005-7-7
    ⑤ Mark Minevich, Frank J. Richter,“Global Outsourcing Report 2005”,Going Global Ventures Inc.,2005
    ⑥ 孟国保、苏秦:《软件企业业务外包管理过程研究》,《软科学》2004 年第 3 期
    ⑦ 苏本生、吕绘:《北京市软件出口增长潜力分析及鼓励政策研究》,北京市商务局内部报告,2006
    ⑧ UNI-Telecom,“Outsourcing and Contracting Out”,2005
    ⑨ 曲玲年等:《印度软件产业考察报告》,载 www.cei.gov.cn,2005
    ② 中国国际投资促进会、中欧国际工商学院、中国服务外包研究中心:《中国服务外包发展报告》,上海交通大学出版社 2007 年版,第 6 页
    ③ McKinsey,“Offshoring:Is it a win-win game? ,”http://www.mckinsey.com/knowledge/mgi/reports/pdfs/offshore/Offshoring_MGI_Perspective.pdf,2003
    ④ NASSCOM:《战略评估 2005》,www.NASSCOM.org,2005
    ⑤ NASSCOM:《战略评估 2005》,www.NASSCOM.org,2005
    ① Global Insight,“The Comprehensive Impact of Offshore IT Software and Services Outsourcing on the U.S. Economy and the IT Industry”,2004
    ② Global Insight,“The Comprehensive Impact of Offshore IT Software and Services Outsourcing on the U.S. Economy and the IT Industry”,2005
    ③ 刘毅、何炼成:《软件产业国际价值链与软件外包》,《西北工业大学学报(社会科学版)》,2006 年 6 月
    ① Nadia Damouni、Sasha Damouni,“Companies Overlook Critical Risks Associated with Offshore Outsourcing”,New York News Network,April 13,2004
    ② UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ③ 中华人民共和国商务部:《中国软件出口研究报告》,人民出版社 2005 年版,第 40 页
     ① 张强:《通信服务外包市场的发展动态》,《电信技术》,2003 年第 5 期
    ① 中国社会科学院工业经济研究所课题组:《全球外包发展:趋势、影响与我国的对策》,《学术动态(研究报告版)》,2007 年第29 期
    ② NASSCOM:《战略评估2005》,www.NASSCOM.org,2005
    ③ 中国社会科学院工业经济研究所课题组:《全球外包发展:趋势、影响与我国的对策》,《学术动态(研究报告版)》,2007 年第29 期
    ④ Wendell Jones,“Offshore Outsourcing: Trends, Pitfalls, and Practices”, Executive Report,Vol. 4, No. 4,from www.cutter.com,2003
    ⑤ 曲玲年等:《印度软件产业考察报告》,载www.cei.gov.cn,2005
    ⑥ UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ⑦ Donna Ghelfi,“The ‘Outsourcing Offshore’ Conundrum:An Intellectual Property Perspective”,2005
    ⑧ Wendell Jones,“Offshore Outsourcing: Trends, Pitfalls, and Practices”, Executive Report,Vol. 4, No. 4,fromwww.cutter.com,2003
    ① Rafiq Dossani、Martin Kenney,“The Next Wave of Globalization? Exploring the Relocation of Service Provision to India”,2004
    ② Uday M. Apte et al,“IS Outsourcing Practices in the USA,Japan and Finland: a Comparative Study,”from http://www.palgrave-journals.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/jit/journal/v12/n4/full/1990048a.html&filetype =pdf,1997
    ③ UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ④ Donna Ghelfi,“The ‘Outsourcing Offshore’ Conundrum:An Intellectual Property Perspective”,2005
    ⑤ Wendell Jones,“Offshore Outsourcing: Trends, Pitfalls, and Practices”, Executive Report,Vol. 4, No. 4, from www.cutter.com,2003
    ⑥ 张云川、蔡淑琴:《离岸外包与中国软件产业发展的思考》,《科技进步与对策》,2005年3月号
    ⑦ Marija Matejic,“Offshoring of IT Services: Impact on Enterprises”, IT Industry and National Economies, from http://wwwai.wu-wien.ac.at,2005
    ⑧ Uday M. Apte et al,“IS Outsourcing Practices in the USA,Japan and Finland: a Comparative Study,” from http://www.palgrave-journals.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/jit/journal/v12/n4/full/1990048a.html&filetype =pdf,1997
    ⑨ Bruce Cronin、Lesley Cathcpowle、David Hall,“Outsourcing and Offshoring”,CESifo Forum,Feb. 2004,2004
     ① Zhonghua Qu、Michael Brocklehurst,“what will It Take for China to Become a Competitive Force in Offshore Outsourcing? An Analysis of the Role of Transaction Cost in Supplier Selection”,the Business School, Imperial College,London,South Kensington Campus,London SW7 2AZ,UK,2003
    ② 国家科技部火炬高技术产业开发中心:《欧美软件外包出口百问百答》,兰州大学出版社 2005 年版,第12-13 页
     ① Rafiq Dossani、Martin Kenney,“The Next Wave of Globalization? Exploring the Relocation of Service Provision to India”,2004
    ② Peter Maskell at el.,“Learning Paths to Offshore Outsourcing-From Cost Reduction to Knowledge Seeking,”DRUID Working Paper No. 05-17,2005
    ③ 托马斯.弗里德曼:《世界是平的:21 世纪简史》,湖南科学技术出版社 2006 年版,第 165 页
    ④ Uday M. Apte et al,“IS Outsourcing Practices in the USA,Japan and Finland: a Comparative Study,”from http://www.palgrave-journals.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/jit/journal/v12/n4/full/1990048a.html&filetype=pdf,1997
    ① 裴长洪:《当代国际贸易新发展及对中国的影响》,载裴长洪、冯雷:《开放经济新问题研究》,社会科学文献出版社 2006 年版,第 3-4 页
    ② 许佩倩:《国际产业分工新趋势与我国经济国际化策略》,《江苏商论》,2004 年 10 月
    ② 王勤:《当代国际竞争力理论与评价体系综述》,《国外社会科学》,2006 年第 6 期
     ① 迈克尔.波特:《国家竞争优势》,华夏出版社 2002 年版,第 1-6 页
    ② 刘绍坚:《服务贸易在中国的发展》,同心出版社 2006 年版,第 21-24 页
     ② 吴敬琏:《中国增长模式抉择》,上海远东出版社 2006 年版,第 82 页
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    ① 王晓东:《核心能力与战略性外包》,《高科技与产业化》,2004 年第 3 期
    ② 韩冰洁:《再论企业边界----从外包的角度》,《财经科学》,2005 年第 1 期
    ③ Uday M. Apte et al,“IS Outsourcing Practices in the USA,Japan and Finland: a Comparative Study,”from http://www.palgrave-journals.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/jit/journal/v12/n4/full/1990048a.html&filetype=pdf,1997
    ② 陈剑锋、唐振鹏:《国外产业集群研究综述》,《外国经济与管理》,2002 年第 8 期
    ③ 赵璐:《印度软件产业的发展状况及其动因分析》,四川大学硕士研究生学位论文,www.cnki.net,2003
    
    ① 魏刚:《BPO 与国际化----软件外包新趋势》,《中国投资》,2006 年第 6 期
    ② 邓立:《发展软件和服务外包对中国经济和社会发展影响深远》,《中国经济时报》,2005-7-7
    ⑨ Bruce Cronin、Lesley Cathcpowle、David Hall,“Outsourcing and Offshoring”,CESifo Forum,Feb. 2004,2004
    ⑩ UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ② Holger Gorg、Aoife Hanley,“Does Outsourcing Increase Profitability?”The Economic and Social Review,Vol. 35,No. 3,winter,2004,pp. 267-288,2004
    ③ Satwik Seshasai、Amar Gupta,“Global Outsourcing of Professional Services”,from http://ssrn.com/abstract=486128,2004
    ④ William H. Friedman,“An Economic and Ethical Analysis of Offshoring: Intercountry Outsourcing of IT Employment”,2005
    ⑦ Wendell Jones,“Offshore Outsourcing: Trends, Pitfalls, and Practices”, Executive Report,Vol. 4, No. 4, from www.cutter.com,2003
    ⑧ Aurelio G. Mauri,“Trust and Knowledge in the Outsourcing Relationships:the Rise of the Virtual Company”,1999
    ② WTO,“World Trade Report 2005”,2005
    ③ 刘景江:《企业核心业务外包探析----以软件产业为例》,《中国软科学》,2004 年第 7 期
    ④ Catherine L. Mann,“Offshore Outsourcing and the Globalization of US Services:Why Now,How Important,and What Policy Implications”,the United States and the World Economy,2004
    ⑤ WTO,“World Trade Report 2005”,2005
    ① Marija Matejic,“Offshoring of IT Services: Impact on Enterprises”, IT Industry and National Economies, from http://wwwai.wu-wien.ac.at,2005
    ② Wendell Jones,“Offshore Outsourcing: Trends, Pitfalls, and Practices”, Executive Report,Vol. 4, No. 4, from www.cutter.com,2003
    ③ 戴维.怀顿:《从蓝变白:全球外包大趋势?》,《金融时报》,2006 年 02 月 15 日
    ④ Marija Matejic,“Offshoring of IT Services: Impact on Enterprises”, IT Industry and National Economies, from http://wwwai.wu-wien.ac.at,2005
    ⑤ 王梅源、鲁耀斌:《软件项目外包风险管理中的承包方评价与选择》,《统计与决策》,2005 年 4 月
    ⑥ Audrey Y. Manring,“Ask before You Outsource:Ten Critical Questions to Put to Potential Service Providers”,2001
    ⑦ Peter Bendor-Samuel、Todd Furniss、Eric Simonson,“Sole Source Outsourcing: Ensuring a Successful Outcome”,from www.everestgrp.com,2003
    ⑧ Lars-Erik Gadde、Ivan Snehota,“Making the Most of Supplier Relationships”,2000
    ① Wendell Jones,“Offshore Outsourcing: Trends, Pitfalls, and Practices”, Executive Report,Vol. 4, No. 4, from www.cutter.com,2003
    ② Satwik Seshasai、Amar Gupta,“Global Outsourcing of Professional Services”,from http://ssrn.com/abstract=486128,2004
    ④ WTO,“World Trade Report 2005”,2005
    ⑤ Andrés Rodríguez-Clare,“Offshoring in a Ricardian World”,NBER Working Paper 13203,http://www.nber.org/papers/w13203,2007
    ⑥ 托马斯.弗里德曼:《世界是平的:21 世纪简史》,湖南科学技术出版社 2006 年版,第 236 页
    ⑦ Wendell Jones,“Offshore Outsourcing: Trends, Pitfalls, and Practices”, Executive Report,Vol. 4, No. 4, from www.cutter.com,2003
    ⑧ UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ⑨ US Chamber of Commerce,“Jobs,Trade,Sourcing,and the Future of the American Workforce,”www.uschamber.com,2004
    ⑩ 荆林波:《质疑外包服务降低成本及引起失业的假说----以信息技术外包服务为例》,《经济研究》,2005年第 1 期
     ① Daniel W. Drezner,“The Outsourcing Bogeyman”,Foreign Affairs,May/June,2004
    ② MGI,“How Offshoring of Services Could Benefit France”,www.mckinsey.com/knowledge/mgi,2005
    ① Hitendra Wadhwa、Rohit Arora、Harpreet Khurana,―Beyond Cost Reduction: The Risks and Rewards of Global Services Sourcing‖,2005
    ② Marija Matejic,―Offshoring of IT Services: Impact on Enterprises‖, IT Industry and National Economies, from http://wwwai.wu-wien.ac.at,2005
    ③ WTO,―World Trade Report 2005‖,2005
    ④ Charles L. Schultze,―Offshoring, Import Competition,and the Jobless Recovery‖,2004
    ⑤ Barry Bosworth,―Challenges to the US Economy:Economics Imbalances in a Growing Economy‖,Prepared for the Research Conference of the Tokyo Club Foundation for Global Studies,2004
    ⑥ Kripalani、Engardio,―The rise of India‖,Business Week,December 8:66–78,2003
    ⑦ Laura L. Pfannenstein、Ray J. Tsai,―Offshore Outsourcing: Current and Future Effects on American IT Industry‖,from http://tandy.sbu.tcu.edu/~dpreston/Edev/Assign/Offshore%20Effects.pdf,2004
    ⑧ Richard Zielinski,―The Offshoring of Teleservices: Opportunities and Macroeconomic Effects in Developing Countries‖,2004
    ⑨ Satwik Seshasai、Amar Gupta,―Global Outsourcing of Professional Services‖,from http://ssrn.com/abstract=486128,2004
    ④ Diana Farrell et al.,“The Emerging Global Labor Market”,McKinsey & Company,2005
    ⑤ Diana Farrell、Jaeson Rosenfeld,“US Offshoring:Rethinking the Response”,McKinsey Global Institute,2005
    ⑦ US Chamber of Commerce,“Jobs,Trade,Sourcing,and the Future of the American Workforce,”www.uschamber.com,2004
    ⑩ UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004 11 Catherine L. Mann,“Offshore Outsourcing and the Globalization of US Services:Why Now,How Important,and What Policy Implications”,the United States and the World Economy,2004
    ① Baily、Lawrence,“Don‘t Blame Trade for US Job Losses”,McKinsey Quarterly,1,2005
    ② Martin N. Baily、Diana Farrell,“Exploding the myths of offshoring”,http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_page.aspx?ar=1453&L2=1,2004
    ③ Daniel W. Drezner,“The Outsourcing Bogeyman”,Foreign Affairs,May/June,2004
    ④ Bruce P. Mehlman,“Offshore Outsourcing and the Future of American Competitiveness”,2003
    ⑤ Global Insight,“The Comprehensive Impact of Offshore IT Software and Services Outsourcing on the U.S. Economy and the IT Industry”,2004
    ⑥ 李志强、李子慧:《当前全球服务外包的发展趋势与对策》,《国际经济合作》,2004 年第 11 期
    ① UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ② 郭冰:《中国软件出口欧美暨离岸软件外包产业研究》,天津大学硕士研究生学位论文,www.cnki.net,2005
    ③ 戴维.怀顿:《从蓝变白:全球外包大趋势?》,《金融时报》,2006 年 02 月 15 日
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    ⑦ 托马斯.弗里德曼:《世界是平的:21世纪简史》,湖南科学技术出版社 2006 年版,第 260 页
    ⑧ Marija Matejic,“Offshoring of IT Services: Impact on Enterprises”, IT Industry and National Economies, from http://wwwai.wu-wien.ac.at,2005
    ⑨ Rafiq Dossani、Martin Kenney,“The Next Wave of Globalization? Exploring the Relocation of Service Provision to India”,2004
    ⑩ UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
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    ① 刘玲玲:《中国和印度软件产业发展比较研究》,湖南大学硕士研究生学位论文,www.cnki.net,2004
    ② 郭冰:《中国软件出口欧美暨离岸软件外包产业研究》,天津大学硕士研究生学位论文,www.cnki.net,2005
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    ⑥ UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2005”,2005
     ① 邓常春、郑勇:《中国软件业的发展能否以印度为师》,《南亚研究季刊》,2003 年第 3 期
    ② Rafiq Dossani、Martin Kenney,“The Next Wave of Globalization? Exploring the Relocation of Service Provision to India”,2004
    ③ 托马斯.弗里德曼:《世界是平的:21 世纪简史》,湖南科学技术出版社 2006 年版,第 280 页
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    ① Kumar、Joseph,“Export of Software and Business Process Outsourcing from Developing Countries: Lessons from the Indian Experience”,Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Review,Vol. 1,No. 1,April,2005
    ② Kumar,“Indian Software Industry Development:International and National Perspective”,Economic and Political Weekly,vol. 36,No. 10,2001
    ③ Kumar、Joseph,“Export of Software and Business Process Outsourcing from Developing Countries: Lessons from the Indian Experience”,Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Review,Vol. 1,No. 1,April,2005
    ④ Richard Zielinski,“The Offshoring of Teleservices: Opportunities and Macroeconomic Effects in Developing Countries”,2004
    ⑤ 托马斯.弗里德曼:《世界是平的:21 世纪简史》,湖南科学技术出版社 2006 年版,第 312 页
    ⑥ OECD,“Moving Up the Value Chain:Staying Competitive in the Global Economy”,2007
    ⑦ 谢光亚等:《跨国公司在中国的投资分析》,经济管理出版社 2006 年版,第 57 页
    ① 刘亚东:《软件全球化分工背后的危险》,《IT 经济世界》,2005 年第 4 期
    ② 唐鹏琪:《印度软件业的新战略》,《南亚研究季刊》,2004 年第 2 期
    ③ 邓常春、郑勇:《中国软件业的发展能否以印度为师》,《南亚研究季刊》,2003 年第 3 期
    ④ 江小涓等:《全球化中的科技资源重组与中国产业技术竞争力提升》,中国社会科学出版社 2004 年版,第 75-78 页
    ① 冯德连:《研发国际化趋势下的我国技术创新模式的选择》,《财贸经济》2007 年第 4 期
    ③ 李蕊:《跨国公司在华研发投资与中国技术跨越式发展》,经济科学出版社 2004 年版,第 62 页
    ④ UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ⑤ UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ⑥ 苏本生、吕绘:《北京市软件出口增长潜力分析及鼓励政策研究》,北京市商务局内部报告,2006
    ⑦ 李蕊:《跨国公司在华研发投资与中国技术跨越式发展》,经济科学出版社 2004 年版,第 151 页
    ⑧ Satwik Seshasai、Amar Gupta,“Global Outsourcing of Professional Services”,from http://ssrn.com/abstract=486128,2004
     ① 李蕊:《跨国公司在华研发投资与中国技术跨越式发展》,经济科学出版社 2004 年版,第 62 页
    ② 李蕊:《跨国公司在华研发投资与中国技术跨越式发展》,经济科学出版社 2004 年版,第 150 页
    ① UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ② Kumar,“Indian Software Industry Development:International and National Perspective”,Economic and Political Weekly,vol. 36,No. 10,2001
    ③ 赵璐:《印度软件产业的发展状况及其动因分析》,四川大学硕士研究生学位论文,www.cnki.net,2003
    ④ Kumar,“Indian Software Industry Development:International and National Perspective”,Economic and Political Weekly,vol. 36,No. 10,2001
    ⑤ Kumar、Joseph,“Export of Software and Business Process Outsourcing from Developing Countries: Lessons from the Indian Experience”,Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Review,Vol. 1,No. 1,April,2005
    ⑥ Rafiq Dossani、Martin Kenney,“The Next Wave of Globalization? Exploring the Relocation of Service Provision to India”,2004
    ⑦ Farrell、Zainulbhai,“A Richer Future for India”,McKinsey Global Institute. http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_page.aspx?ar=1440&L2=7&L3=10&srid=6&gp=1,2004
    ⑧ WTO,“World Trade Report 2005”,2005
    ⑨ Barry Bosworth,“Challenges to the US Economy:Economics Imbalances in a Growing Economy”,Prepared for the Research Conference of the Tokyo Club Foundation for Global Studies,2004
    ⑩ Rafiq Dossani、Martin Kenney,“The Next Wave of Globalization? Exploring the Relocation of Service Provision to India”,2004 11 Kumar、Joseph,“Export of Software and Business Process Outsourcing from Developing Countries: Lessons from the Indian Experience”,Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Review,Vol. 1,No. 1,April,2005
    ① Satwik Seshasai、Amar Gupta,“Global Outsourcing of Professional Services”,from http://ssrn.com/abstract=486128,2004
    ② 托马斯.弗里德曼:《世界是平的:21 世纪简史》,湖南科学技术出版社 2006 年版,第 86 页
    ③ NASSCOM:《战略评估 2005》,www.NASSCOM.org,2005
    ④ Marija Matejic,“Offshoring of IT Services: Impact on Enterprises”, IT Industry and National Economies, from http://wwwai.wu-wien.ac.at,2005
    ⑤ Richard Zielinski,“The Offshoring of Teleservices: Opportunities and Macroeconomic Effects in Developing Countries”,2004
    ⑥ WTO,“World Trade Report 2005”,2005
    ① Laura L. Pfannenstein、Ray J. Tsai,“Offshore Outsourcing: Current and Future Effects on American IT Industry”,from http://tandy.sbu.tcu.edu/~dpreston/Edev/Assign/Offshore%20Effects.pdf,2004
    ② Overby,“The Hidden Costs of Offshore Outsourcing,”CIO Magazine,Sep.1,2003. http://www.cio.com/archive/090103/money.html.,2003
    ③ Wendell Jones,“Offshore Outsourcing: Trends, Pitfalls, and Practices”, Executive Report,Vol. 4, No. 4,from www.cutter.com,2003
    ④ Rafiq Dossani、Martin Kenney,“The Next Wave of Globalization? Exploring the Relocation of Service Provision to India”,2004
    ⑤ 孟国保、苏秦:《软件企业业务外包管理过程研究》,《软科学》2004 年第 3 期
    ⑥ Mark Minevich, Frank J. Richter,“Global Outsourcing Report 2005”,Going Global Ventures Inc.,2005
    ⑦ Rafiq Dossani、Martin Kenney,“The Next Wave of Globalization? Exploring the Relocation of Service Provision to India”,2004
    ⑧ UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ⑨ 托马斯.弗里德曼:《世界是平的:21 世纪简史》,湖南科学技术出版社 2006 年版,第 98 页
    ⑩ 郭冰:《中国软件出口欧美暨离岸软件外包产业研究》,天津大学硕士研究生学位论文,www.cnki.net,2005 11 WTO,“World Trade Report 2005”,2005 12 UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004 13 UNCTAD,“World Investment Report 2004,The Shift Towards Services”,2004
    ① 郭志刚:《社会统计分析方法——SPSS 软件应用》,中国人民大学出版社 1999 年版,第 110 页
    ① Jacob Funk Kirkegaard,“Outsourcing and Offshoring: Pushing the European Model Over the Hill, Rather Than Off the Cliff”,Working Paper Series05-1,2005
    1. A.T.Kearney:《如何为离岸外包业务选择国家》,www.atkearney.com,2003 年
    2. McKinsey:《全球企业管理高层调查报告》,www.cqvip.com,2004
    3. McKinsey:《打造 IT 外包/业务流程外包领域的下一个全球巨人》,2006
    4. NASSCOM:《战略评估 2005》,www.NASSCOM.org,2005
    5. NeoIT:《离岸外包业务观察白皮书》,www.neoIT.com,2003 年
    6. 保罗.克鲁格曼:《战略性贸易政策与新国际经济学》,中国人民大学出版社 2000 年版
    7. 北京市信息化工作办公室:《北京市信息服务业发展报告 2006》,中国发展出版社 2007 年版
    8. 曹明福、李树民:《全球价值链分工的利益来源:比较优势、规模优势和价格倾斜优势》,《中国工业经济》,2005 年第 10 期
    9. 陈冲:《软件产业要走国际化道路》,www.cei.gov.cn,2005
    10. 陈飞翔、郭英:《关于人力资本和 FDI 技术外溢关系的文献综述》,《财贸研究》,2005 年第 1 期
    11. 陈菲:《服务外包动因机制分析及发展趋势预测----美国服务包的验证》,《中国工业经济》,2005年第 7 期
    12. 陈华超:《比较优势、竞争优势与印度软件业的发展》,河北大学硕士研究生学位论文,www.cnki.net,2004
    13. 陈剑锋、唐振鹏:《国外产业集群研究综述》,《外国经济与管理》,2002 年第 8 期
    14. 陈景华:《服务业离岸外移的经济效应分析》,《世界经济研究》,2007 年第 2 期
    15. 陈柳、刘志彪:《本土创新能力、FDI 技术外溢与经济增长》,《南开经济研究》,2006 年第 3 期
    16. 陈伟:《新指数、新思维、新趋势——解读世界经济论坛新的全球竞争力指数》,国家发展和改革委经济体制与管理研究所内部报告,2005
    17. 崔启亮:《全球软件外包市场发展现状以及趋势预测》,《信息空间》,2004 年第 7 期
    18. 崔启亮:《软件外包与自主创新两翼齐飞》,《软件世界》,2005 年第 11 期
    19. 大连软件园:《大连软件园介绍》,大连软件园有限公司内部资料,2006
    20. 戴维.怀顿:《从蓝变白:全球外包大趋势?》,《金融时报》,2006 年 02 月 15 日
    21. 戴永红:《印度软件企业国际化经营初探》,《亚太经济》,2004 年第 3 期
    22. 戴永红:《印度软件企业外包发展模式及其对中国的启示》,《南亚研究》,2004 年第 2 期
    23. 邓常春、郑勇:《中国软件业的发展能否以印度为师》,《南亚研究季刊》,2003 年第 3 期
    24. 邓立:《发展软件和服务外包对中国经济和社会发展影响深远》,《中国经济时报》,2005-7-7
    25. 董建龙:《中国软件出口美国面临的挑战、机遇与对策》,《中国科技产业》,2005 年第 2 期
    26. 董小梅:《中印软件服务业比较分析及对中国的启示》,《世界贸易组织动态与研究》,2005 年第 5期
    27. 杜健、顾华:《基于产业技术创新的 FDI 技术溢出研究述评》,《财贸经济》2007 年第 4 期
    28. 杜晓君:《制造业的国际转移规律和趋势》,《经济理论与经济管理》,2003 年第 6 期
    29. 樊哲高:《软件外包:从“中国制造”到“中国服务”?》,中国电子报 2006-7-3
    30. 房勤英:《战略性贸易政策综述》,《经济论坛》,2005 年第 12 期
    31. 冯德连:《研发国际化趋势下的我国技术创新模式的选择》,《财贸经济》2007 年第 4 期
    32. 高敬峰:《国外产品内分工理论研究综述》,《经济纵横》2007 年 2 月刊创新版
    33. 高汝熹、张洁:《知识服务业----都市经济第一支柱产业》,上海交通大学出版社 2004 年版
    34. 郭冰:《中国软件出口欧美暨离岸软件外包产业研究》,天津大学硕士研究生学位论文,www.cnki.net,2005
    35. 郭永辉、钱省三:《企业外包战略的决策模型研究》,《北京工商大学学报(社会科学版)》,2005年第 1 期
    36. 郭志刚:《社会统计分析方法——SPSS 软件应用》,中国人民大学出版社 1999 年版
    37. 国家发改委赴印度考察团:《印度软件产业成功发展的经验与借鉴》,《中国经贸导刊》,2005 年第 5 期
    38. 国家科技部火炬高技术产业开发中心:《欧美软件外包出口百问百答》,兰州大学出版社 2005 年版
    39. 韩冰洁:《再论企业边界----从外包的角度》,《财经科学》,2005 年第 1 期
    40. 胡崑山:《2005 年中国软件出口发展状况及机遇和挑战》,www.csia.org.cn,2005
    41. 胡芸:《与 FDI 相关的服务功能的离岸和中国的方略》,《技术经济与管理研究》,2005 年第 5 期
    42. 胡昭玲:《国际垂直专业化分工与贸易:研究综述》,《南开经济研究》,2006 年第 5 期
    43. 季献忠:《软件“内包”》,《电子商务》,2005 年第 4 期
    44. 冀勇庆、王玮冰:《软件外包“四国演义”》,《IT 经理世界》,2005 年 3 月
    45. 江小涓:《中国的外资经济:对增长、结构升级和竞争力的贡献》,中国人民大学出版社 2002 年版
    46. 江小涓:《利用全球科技资源 提高自主创新能力》,《求是》,2006 年 7 月
    47. 江小涓等:《全球化中的科技资源重组与中国产业技术竞争力提升》,中国社会科学出版社 2004年版
    48. 江小涓等:《中国经济的开放与增长 1980-2005 年》,人民出版社 2007 年版
    49. 江心英、陈丽珍:《外国直接投资技术外溢理论研究综述》,《国际贸易问题》,2006 年第 6 期
    50. 姜凌、文俊伟、夏奇峰:《软件外包与软件产业的发展----基于中印的比较》,《科技管理研究》,2006 年第 6 期
    51. 姜荣春:《国际服务外包发展的理论和趋势研究》,中国社会科学院研究生院博士论文,2006
    52. 杰编:《未来十年日本仍是中国软件外包主要市场》,中国电子报,2005-6-24
    53. 荆林波:《质疑外包服务降低成本及引起失业的假说----以信息技术外包服务为例》,《经济研究》,2005 年第 1 期
    54. 寇文煜:《跨国公司研发本地化实证研究》,中国财政经济出版社 2004 年版
    55. 拉胡·森(Rahul Sen)、M. 沙伊杜·伊斯兰(M. Shahidul Islam):《全球外包浪潮中的东南亚:趋势、机遇与挑战》,《东南亚纵横》2005 年第 4 期
    56. 来有为:《中印软件外包业竞争力的对比分析》,《国务院发展研究中心调查研究报告》2005 年专刊 92-65 期
    57. 赖明勇、包群:《外商直接投资技术外溢效应的实证研究》,《湖南大学学报(自然科学版)》,2003年第 4 期
    58. 赖明勇等:《外商直接投资与技术外溢:基于吸收能力的研究》,《经济研究》,2005 年第 8 期
    59. 黎海波、魏晓燕:《印度软件业迅速国际化的原因》,《苏南科技开发》,2005 年 11 月
    60. 李蕊:《跨国公司在华研发投资与中国技术跨越式发展》,经济科学出版社 2004 年版
    61. 李志强、李子慧:《当前全球服务外包的发展趋势与对策》,《国际经济合作》,2004 年第 11 期
    62. 李治岐:《2006 年中国软件外包市场现况研究报告》,韩国软件振兴院北京代表处内部报告,2006
    63. 联合国贸易与发展会议:《世界投资报告 2004—转向服务业》,中国财政经济出版社 2006 年版
    64. 联合国贸易与发展会议:《世界投资报告 2005—跨国公司和研发国际化》,中国财政经济出版社2006 年版
    65. 林俊、吴晓波:《信息系统外包(IS Outsourcing)探讨研究》,《技术经济》,2006 年第 2 期
    66. 林涛:《东软集团 BPO 业务发展战略研究》,大连理工大学硕士研究生学位论文,www.cnki.net,2005
    67. 刘栋:《国际软件外包:中国 IT 企业的发展契机》,《国际经济合作》,2005 年第 11 期
    68. 刘厚俊、刘正良:《人力资本门槛与 FDI 效应吸收——中国地区数据的实证检验》,《经济科学》,2006 年第 5 期
    69. 刘积仁:《软件外包需内外兼顾》,电脑商报,2004-11-24
    70. 刘积仁:《软件外包的中国式误会》,经济观察报,2005-12-7
    71. 刘继承:《企业信息系统与服务外包风险管理研究》,《情报理论与实践》,2005 年第 2 期
    72. 刘景江:《企业核心业务外包探析----以软件产业为例》,《中国软科学》,2004 年第 7 期
    73. 刘玲玲:《中国和印度软件产业发展比较研究》,湖南大学硕士研究生学位论文,www.cnki.net,2004
    74. 刘庆林、陈景华:《服务业外包的福利效应分析》,《山东大学学报社会科学版(双月刊)》,2006年第 4 期
    75. 刘绍坚:《承接软件外包能给北京带来什么----来自文思创新软件技术有限公司的典型调查》,北京市政府研究室内部调研报告,2006
    76. 刘绍坚:《服务贸易在中国的发展》,同心出版社 2006 年版
    77. 刘绍坚:《生产性服务业发展趋势和北京的发展路径选择》,《财贸经济》,2007 年第 4 期
    78. 刘绍坚:《中国承接国际软件外包的现状、模式及发展对策研究》,《国际贸易》2007 年第 6 期
    79. 刘绍坚:《中国承接国际软件外包的政策建议》,《宏观经济研究》2007 年第 8 期
    80. 刘小雪:《发展中国家新兴产业优势》,世界知识出版社 2004 年版
    81. 刘亚东:《软件全球化分工背后的危险》,《IT 经济世界》,2005 年第 4 期
    82. 刘毅、何炼成:《试论软件产业的国际价值与软件外包》,《西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版)》,2005 年第 4 期
    83. 刘毅、何炼成:《软件产业国际价值链与软件外包》,《西北工业大学学报(社会科学版)》,2006年 6 月
    84. 刘宇:《外商直接投资技术外溢效应下降之谜》,《财贸经济》2006 年第 4 期
    85. 刘正良、刘厚俊:《东道国对 FDI 技术外溢吸收能力的研究综述》,《经济学研究》,2006 年第 7期
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