摩配企业库存管理优化模型研究与实现
摘要
我国是世界摩托车生产第一大国,产业链上聚集了众多为整车制造企业提供配件的企业群体,即摩配企业。由于缺乏科学的理论指导,管理者只能依靠经验或个人喜好进行决策,导致了生产的盲目性和随意性,最终使得库存水平长期处于较高水平,然而长期的高库存会导致企业慢性死亡。
目前库存方面的研究主要分为供应链的库存控制理论和传统的库存控制理论。前者站在供应链核心企业即整车厂的角度,后者没有考虑供应链的协作关系,因此都不适合摩配企业的情况。本文打破了现有库存理论体系的框架,以全新的角度,针对摩配企业的库存问题和库存特点,提出了摩配企业库存管理解决方案。该解决方案主要包括以下几个方面:
①提出了需求预测算法。该部分详细介绍了需求预测的各种方法,如神经网络预测法和统计学预测法。然后根据摩配企业实际情况,提出了基于指数平滑法的短期趋势需求预测算法。仿真结果显示该算法简单实用,灵敏度高,能迅速追踪最新需求变化,取得较好的效果。
②提出了成品和半成品库存量分配模型。该部分首先介绍了线性规划的理论,提出了成品和半成品库存量分配的线性规划模型。仿真实例表明该模型能降低成品库存,从而进一步降低库存成本。
③提出了已知约束下限的线性求解算法,并证明了其正确性。在求解库存量分配模型的过程中发现了单纯形法的不足之处,针对该模型的特点提出了性能更优的求解算法,并对该算法的正确性进行证明,最后对算法性能进行了评估。
④提出了最佳交货期算法。该部分首先介绍了国内外交货期研究现状,然后提出了时间优先的最佳交货期算法。该算法不仅为摩配企业签订合同时提供参考,也为摩托车行业链配套作业规划提供参考。
⑤开发了摩配企业库存辅助决策仿真系统。该部分研究了上述数学模型和算法的具体实现,使得该方案不仅具有理论意义,而且具有很好的现实可行性。
最后,对主要研究成果进行了总结,并对应用和研究前景进行了简要的探讨。
Our country is a major motorcycle producer. There are a lot of parts enterprises severing for motorcycle manufacturers. As lack of scientific theory, the managers have to make decisions by experiences or personal interest, which always leads to blindness. As a result, the company will be apt to die with long-time high inventory.
Present researches mainly focus on inventory of supply chain or traditional inventory models. The former considers the core company in supply chain like motorcycle producer; the latter doesn't think about cooperation in supply chain. Therefore, it's necessary to find a new way to solve this problem. According to the special facts, this paper gives inventory solutions for motorcycle parts enterprises. The solution which is different from resent theories first payes an attention on supplyers in a supply chain. There are serval parts as follows:
First, needs prediction. In this part, it introduces the methods on prediction, such as artificial neural and statistics forecasting. Then it gives a short-term tendency needs prediction algorithm based on exponential smoothing model. Simulative examples show that it, simple and convenient, could tracing over the newest changes, has high accuracy.
Second, inventory distribution. After introducing theory of Linear Planning, it gives inventory distribution models for products and semi-finished products, which can further reduce the products inventory.
Third, a new algorithm of LP. As the standand solution of LP, there are some disadvantages about Simplex. So it gives a new algorithm to solve Linear Planning, proves it, assess the algorithm performance.
Fourth, the best due date. This part introduces the researches both at home and abroad. Then it gives a time-first best due date algorithm. It could either help making contractions or give suggestion on matching job plan of motorcycle industry.
Fifth, a simulative system. This part introduces how to program the models and algorithms, which give this solution feasibility and reality.
Finally, this paper gives a summary about the research and provides a further discussion about the future applications.
目前库存方面的研究主要分为供应链的库存控制理论和传统的库存控制理论。前者站在供应链核心企业即整车厂的角度,后者没有考虑供应链的协作关系,因此都不适合摩配企业的情况。本文打破了现有库存理论体系的框架,以全新的角度,针对摩配企业的库存问题和库存特点,提出了摩配企业库存管理解决方案。该解决方案主要包括以下几个方面:
①提出了需求预测算法。该部分详细介绍了需求预测的各种方法,如神经网络预测法和统计学预测法。然后根据摩配企业实际情况,提出了基于指数平滑法的短期趋势需求预测算法。仿真结果显示该算法简单实用,灵敏度高,能迅速追踪最新需求变化,取得较好的效果。
②提出了成品和半成品库存量分配模型。该部分首先介绍了线性规划的理论,提出了成品和半成品库存量分配的线性规划模型。仿真实例表明该模型能降低成品库存,从而进一步降低库存成本。
③提出了已知约束下限的线性求解算法,并证明了其正确性。在求解库存量分配模型的过程中发现了单纯形法的不足之处,针对该模型的特点提出了性能更优的求解算法,并对该算法的正确性进行证明,最后对算法性能进行了评估。
④提出了最佳交货期算法。该部分首先介绍了国内外交货期研究现状,然后提出了时间优先的最佳交货期算法。该算法不仅为摩配企业签订合同时提供参考,也为摩托车行业链配套作业规划提供参考。
⑤开发了摩配企业库存辅助决策仿真系统。该部分研究了上述数学模型和算法的具体实现,使得该方案不仅具有理论意义,而且具有很好的现实可行性。
最后,对主要研究成果进行了总结,并对应用和研究前景进行了简要的探讨。
Our country is a major motorcycle producer. There are a lot of parts enterprises severing for motorcycle manufacturers. As lack of scientific theory, the managers have to make decisions by experiences or personal interest, which always leads to blindness. As a result, the company will be apt to die with long-time high inventory.
Present researches mainly focus on inventory of supply chain or traditional inventory models. The former considers the core company in supply chain like motorcycle producer; the latter doesn't think about cooperation in supply chain. Therefore, it's necessary to find a new way to solve this problem. According to the special facts, this paper gives inventory solutions for motorcycle parts enterprises. The solution which is different from resent theories first payes an attention on supplyers in a supply chain. There are serval parts as follows:
First, needs prediction. In this part, it introduces the methods on prediction, such as artificial neural and statistics forecasting. Then it gives a short-term tendency needs prediction algorithm based on exponential smoothing model. Simulative examples show that it, simple and convenient, could tracing over the newest changes, has high accuracy.
Second, inventory distribution. After introducing theory of Linear Planning, it gives inventory distribution models for products and semi-finished products, which can further reduce the products inventory.
Third, a new algorithm of LP. As the standand solution of LP, there are some disadvantages about Simplex. So it gives a new algorithm to solve Linear Planning, proves it, assess the algorithm performance.
Fourth, the best due date. This part introduces the researches both at home and abroad. Then it gives a time-first best due date algorithm. It could either help making contractions or give suggestion on matching job plan of motorcycle industry.
Fifth, a simulative system. This part introduces how to program the models and algorithms, which give this solution feasibility and reality.
Finally, this paper gives a summary about the research and provides a further discussion about the future applications.
引文
[1]吴机.内外兼修—2007年摩托车市场开拓说[J].摩托车信息,2007,(1):13-15.
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[3]王国强.2006我国摩托车行业运行情况分析[J].摩托车技术,2007,(3):16-18.
[4]Angappa Gunasekaran,Kee-hung Lai,T.C.Edwin Cheng.Responsive supply chain:Acompetitive strategy in a networked economy[J].The International Journal of Management Science,2008,36(4):549-564.
[5]Abdullah Eroglu,Gultekin Ozdemir.An economic order quantity model with defective items and shortages[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2007,106(2):544-549.
[6]Charytoniuk,W.,Box,E.D.,Lee,W.J.,,& Chen,M.S.Neural network-based demand forecasting in a deregulated environment[J].IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications,2000,36(3),893-898.
[7]轩超亭,黄培清,吕冬.神经网络技术在供应链管理中的应用[J].工业工程与管理,2000,(3):41-44.
[8]王东旭,沈益民,王志强.用BP神经网络模型预测ERP的安全供货库存[J].计算机应用,2001,21(3):53-55.
[9]何炎祥,李峰,宋志凯等.神经网络技术在库存管理中的应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2002,(15):182-184.
[10]Caglar,D.Li,C.L.& Simchi-Levi,D.Two-echelon spare parts inventory system subject to a service constraint[J],IIE Transactions(Institute of Industrial Engineers),2004,36(7):655-666.
[11]Pei-Chann Chang,Yen-Wen Wang and Chi-Yang Tsai.Evolving neural network for printed circuit board sales forecasting[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2005,29(1):83-92.
[12]周斌,张瑞林等.人工神经网络技术在预测服装企业安全库存的应用[J].计算机工程与设计,2005,26(12):3453-3455.
[13]彭志忠.基于神经网络的供应链安全库存预测模型[J].管理现代化,2006,(3):28-30.
[14]李玉霞,王伯良.零售连锁企业安全库存神经网络模型预测[J].河南科技大学学报(自然科学版),2007,28(1):57-59.
[15]何佳,王子牛,罗刚等.基于混沌神经网络技术的安全库存预测研究[J].计算机技术与发展,2007,17(8):247-249.
[16]S.G.Li and X.Kuo.The inventory management system for automobile spare parts in a central warehouse[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2008,34(2):1144-1153.
[17]张德南,张心艳.指数平滑预测法中平滑系数的确定[J].大连铁道学院学报,2004,25(1):79-80.
[18]夏少刚.运筹学经济优化方法与模型[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[19]Dantzig,GB.Computational Algorithm of the Revised Simplex Method[R].Calif.:RAND Repor RM,TheRAND Corporation,SantaMonica,1953:1266-1267.
[20]杜有威.线性规划解法的讨论及单纯形C程序设计[J].天津成人高等学校联合学报,2003,5(2):107-110.
[21]束金龙,闻人凯.线性规划理论与模型应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
[22]徐渝,贾涛.运筹学(上)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[23]丁雪冰,李辉.线性规划在车间动态排产中的应用与实现[J].微计算机信息,2007,23(1):17-18.
[24]刘云峰.纸箱生产企业库存管理优化模型[D].重庆:重庆大学,2005.
[25]沈显峰.库存管理决策模型的研究与应用[D].成都:四川大学,2002.
[26]吴伟伟.面向敏捷询单处理的订单排程方法研究与应用[D].浙江大学硕士学位论文,2005.
[27]MARUCHECK A S,MCCLELLAND M K.Strategic issues in make-to-order manufacturing[J].Production and Inventory Management,1986,27(2):83-95.
[28]CORBETT,LAWRENCE M.Delivery windows- a new view on improving manufacturing flexibility and on-time delivery performance[J].Production and Inventory Management Journal,1992,33(3):74-80.
[29]DUENYASI,WALLACE J H.Quoting customer lead time[J].Management Science,1995,41(1):43-58.
[30]RAY S,JEWKES E M.Customer lead time management when both demand and price are lead time sensitive[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2004,153(3):769-781.
[31]杨文胜,徐滟,李莉.时间敏感需求下的交货期相关定价策略[J].预测,2005,2(4):70-74.
[32]KARMARKAR U S.Manufacturing lead times[M].Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science,Amsterdam,Netherlands,Elsevier,1993:287-329.
[33]SOKC,SONG J S.Price,delivery time guarantees and capacity selection[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1998,111(1):28-49.
[34]MAGRETTA J.Fast,global and entrepreneurial:supply chain management,Hong Kong style —an interview with Victor Fung[J].Harvard Business Review,1998,76(5):102-114.
[35]林勇,阎阅.基于额外费用的交货期相关定价模型研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2007, 13(5):869-876.
[36]CHENG T C E,GORDON V S,KOVALYOV M Y.Single machine scheduling with batch deliveries[J].European of Operational Research,1996,94(2):277-283.
[37]YANG X.Scheduling with generalized batch delivery dates and earliness penalties[J].IIETransactions,2000,32(8):735-741.
[38]LEE C Y,CHEN Z L.Machine scheduling with transportation considerations[J].Journal of Scheduling,2001,(4):32-41.
[39]吴悦,汪定伟.交货期窗口下带有附加惩罚的单机提前/拖期调度问题[J].控制理论与应用,2000,1(1):9-13,18.
[40]黄德才,朱艺华,王万良.带公共交货期窗口的提前/拖期非等同多机调度问题[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(4):64-69.
[41]王莉,李大卫,王梦光.交货期窗口下的并行机调度问题的遗传算法[J].系统工程学报,2002,17(1):45-49,55.
[42]POTTS C N,KOVALYOV M Y.Scheduling with batching review[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2000,120(2):228-249.
[43]NG C T,CHENGT C E,YUAN J J.Anote on the single machine serial batching scheduling problem to minimize maximum lateness with precedence constraints[J].Operations Research Letters,2002,30(1):66-68.
[44]NG C T,CHENG T C E,YUAN J J,etal.On the single machine serial batching scheduling problem to minimize total completion time with precedence constraints,release dates and identical processing times[J].Operations Research Letters,2003,31(4):323-326.
[45]YUAN J J,YANG A F,CHENG T C E.A note on the single machine serial batching scheduling problem to minimize maximum lateness with identical processing times[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2004,158(2):525-528.
[46]AGNETIS A,ALFIERI A,NICOSIA G.A heuristic approach to batching and scheduling a single machine to minimize setup costs[J].Computers & Industrial Engineering,2004,46(4):793-802.
[47]ELMAHI I,MERZOUK S,GRUNDER O,etal.A genetic algorithm approach for the batches delivery optimization in supply chain[C].Proceedings of 1EEE International Conference on Networking,Sensing and Control.Piscataway,N.J.,USA,IEEE,2004:299-304.
[48]HALL N G,POTTS C N.Supply chain scheduling:batching and delivery[J].Operations Research,2003,51(4):566-584.
[49]但斌,肖剑,刘晓红.基于交货期窗口约束的多极供应链批量调度问题研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2007,13(2):310-316.
[2]刘洪波,陈琳.我国摩托车产业国际竞争力分析[J].集团经济研究,2007,(11):170-171.
[3]王国强.2006我国摩托车行业运行情况分析[J].摩托车技术,2007,(3):16-18.
[4]Angappa Gunasekaran,Kee-hung Lai,T.C.Edwin Cheng.Responsive supply chain:Acompetitive strategy in a networked economy[J].The International Journal of Management Science,2008,36(4):549-564.
[5]Abdullah Eroglu,Gultekin Ozdemir.An economic order quantity model with defective items and shortages[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2007,106(2):544-549.
[6]Charytoniuk,W.,Box,E.D.,Lee,W.J.,,& Chen,M.S.Neural network-based demand forecasting in a deregulated environment[J].IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications,2000,36(3),893-898.
[7]轩超亭,黄培清,吕冬.神经网络技术在供应链管理中的应用[J].工业工程与管理,2000,(3):41-44.
[8]王东旭,沈益民,王志强.用BP神经网络模型预测ERP的安全供货库存[J].计算机应用,2001,21(3):53-55.
[9]何炎祥,李峰,宋志凯等.神经网络技术在库存管理中的应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2002,(15):182-184.
[10]Caglar,D.Li,C.L.& Simchi-Levi,D.Two-echelon spare parts inventory system subject to a service constraint[J],IIE Transactions(Institute of Industrial Engineers),2004,36(7):655-666.
[11]Pei-Chann Chang,Yen-Wen Wang and Chi-Yang Tsai.Evolving neural network for printed circuit board sales forecasting[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2005,29(1):83-92.
[12]周斌,张瑞林等.人工神经网络技术在预测服装企业安全库存的应用[J].计算机工程与设计,2005,26(12):3453-3455.
[13]彭志忠.基于神经网络的供应链安全库存预测模型[J].管理现代化,2006,(3):28-30.
[14]李玉霞,王伯良.零售连锁企业安全库存神经网络模型预测[J].河南科技大学学报(自然科学版),2007,28(1):57-59.
[15]何佳,王子牛,罗刚等.基于混沌神经网络技术的安全库存预测研究[J].计算机技术与发展,2007,17(8):247-249.
[16]S.G.Li and X.Kuo.The inventory management system for automobile spare parts in a central warehouse[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2008,34(2):1144-1153.
[17]张德南,张心艳.指数平滑预测法中平滑系数的确定[J].大连铁道学院学报,2004,25(1):79-80.
[18]夏少刚.运筹学经济优化方法与模型[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[19]Dantzig,GB.Computational Algorithm of the Revised Simplex Method[R].Calif.:RAND Repor RM,TheRAND Corporation,SantaMonica,1953:1266-1267.
[20]杜有威.线性规划解法的讨论及单纯形C程序设计[J].天津成人高等学校联合学报,2003,5(2):107-110.
[21]束金龙,闻人凯.线性规划理论与模型应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
[22]徐渝,贾涛.运筹学(上)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[23]丁雪冰,李辉.线性规划在车间动态排产中的应用与实现[J].微计算机信息,2007,23(1):17-18.
[24]刘云峰.纸箱生产企业库存管理优化模型[D].重庆:重庆大学,2005.
[25]沈显峰.库存管理决策模型的研究与应用[D].成都:四川大学,2002.
[26]吴伟伟.面向敏捷询单处理的订单排程方法研究与应用[D].浙江大学硕士学位论文,2005.
[27]MARUCHECK A S,MCCLELLAND M K.Strategic issues in make-to-order manufacturing[J].Production and Inventory Management,1986,27(2):83-95.
[28]CORBETT,LAWRENCE M.Delivery windows- a new view on improving manufacturing flexibility and on-time delivery performance[J].Production and Inventory Management Journal,1992,33(3):74-80.
[29]DUENYASI,WALLACE J H.Quoting customer lead time[J].Management Science,1995,41(1):43-58.
[30]RAY S,JEWKES E M.Customer lead time management when both demand and price are lead time sensitive[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2004,153(3):769-781.
[31]杨文胜,徐滟,李莉.时间敏感需求下的交货期相关定价策略[J].预测,2005,2(4):70-74.
[32]KARMARKAR U S.Manufacturing lead times[M].Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science,Amsterdam,Netherlands,Elsevier,1993:287-329.
[33]SOKC,SONG J S.Price,delivery time guarantees and capacity selection[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1998,111(1):28-49.
[34]MAGRETTA J.Fast,global and entrepreneurial:supply chain management,Hong Kong style —an interview with Victor Fung[J].Harvard Business Review,1998,76(5):102-114.
[35]林勇,阎阅.基于额外费用的交货期相关定价模型研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2007, 13(5):869-876.
[36]CHENG T C E,GORDON V S,KOVALYOV M Y.Single machine scheduling with batch deliveries[J].European of Operational Research,1996,94(2):277-283.
[37]YANG X.Scheduling with generalized batch delivery dates and earliness penalties[J].IIETransactions,2000,32(8):735-741.
[38]LEE C Y,CHEN Z L.Machine scheduling with transportation considerations[J].Journal of Scheduling,2001,(4):32-41.
[39]吴悦,汪定伟.交货期窗口下带有附加惩罚的单机提前/拖期调度问题[J].控制理论与应用,2000,1(1):9-13,18.
[40]黄德才,朱艺华,王万良.带公共交货期窗口的提前/拖期非等同多机调度问题[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(4):64-69.
[41]王莉,李大卫,王梦光.交货期窗口下的并行机调度问题的遗传算法[J].系统工程学报,2002,17(1):45-49,55.
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