TZL投资项目经济效益评价研究
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摘要
目前,世界经济已经呈现出生产国际化、贸易全球化、经济一体化的发展趋势,中国经济已经成为世界经济的重要组成部分。随着经济的发展和科学技术的进步,现代企业面临着更为严峻的挑战,呈现出顾客需求的个性化和多样化,企业产品的多元化和独特化发展趋势。要求现代企业进行改建和新建投资项目、生产新产品和新材料,以满足消费者需求,适应市场竞争的需要。由于现代企业项目投资具有金额大、风险高的特点,需要项目投资者对投资项目的经济效益进行评价,不仅对于降低投资风险、提高项目投资经济效益具有重要的意义,而且对于发挥产业带动效应,促进区域经济发展具有重要作用。
本文针对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目,运用经济效益理论和项目管理理论,从投资者的视角,对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目的总体概况进行介绍,对项目市场需求进行分析,对目标市场、产品价格进行预测；从项目市场风险和项目各竞争优势两个方面分析了项目竞争、市场竞争状况；运用项目评价理论对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目进行财务评价分析,具体测算了项目的投资回收期、内部收益率以及财务净现值和敏感性分析、对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目风险进行了风险分析；从财务指标、宏观经济效益指标和风险指标三个维度构建了建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目经济效益评价指标体系；运用模糊层次分析法对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目经济效益进行了评价。结合评价结果,在定性分析和定量分析的基础上对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目进行了投资决策。
Recently, the world economy is developing to the economic integration, producing internationalization and trade globalization, and in the same time, Chinese economic has become the most important in the world. With the development of the economic and the improvement of the technology, the modern companies are facing to more critical challenges, which results in the individuation and diversity of the customer demand and the diversity and specificity of the company products. As a result, the modern companies are demanded to built and rebuild investment project, and to produce new products and material, which can supply the demand to customers and meet the demand of market competition.
Since the modern company investment is more money and higher risk, the project investors should evaluate the economic benefit of the project, which can decrease the investment risk and increase the project investment economy benefit. Consequently, it plays an important role in industry driving effect and developing the regional economy.
In this thesis, the overall introduction of a project called non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is presented with economy benefit theory and project management theory from the viewpoint of investor. The project market demand is analyzed as well as the target market and product price are predicted. Then the project competition and market competition are analyzed from two parts:project market risk and project competitive advantage. In addition, the financial evaluation of non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is analyzed with project evaluation theory. Meanwhile, the project investment recovery period, internal rate of return, financial net present value and sensitivity analysis are taken measurements and calculated. The risk analysis of non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is done. After that, the economy benefit assessment indicator system of non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is constructed in three dimensionalities:financial target, macroeconomic performance target and risk target. Last but not least, the economic benefit of non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is evaluated by fuzzy hierarchy analysis approach. According to the whole evaluation results, the capital investment decision of non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is given based on the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.
本文针对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目,运用经济效益理论和项目管理理论,从投资者的视角,对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目的总体概况进行介绍,对项目市场需求进行分析,对目标市场、产品价格进行预测；从项目市场风险和项目各竞争优势两个方面分析了项目竞争、市场竞争状况；运用项目评价理论对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目进行财务评价分析,具体测算了项目的投资回收期、内部收益率以及财务净现值和敏感性分析、对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目风险进行了风险分析；从财务指标、宏观经济效益指标和风险指标三个维度构建了建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目经济效益评价指标体系；运用模糊层次分析法对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目经济效益进行了评价。结合评价结果,在定性分析和定量分析的基础上对建宇公司特种铝合金板材投资项目进行了投资决策。
Recently, the world economy is developing to the economic integration, producing internationalization and trade globalization, and in the same time, Chinese economic has become the most important in the world. With the development of the economic and the improvement of the technology, the modern companies are facing to more critical challenges, which results in the individuation and diversity of the customer demand and the diversity and specificity of the company products. As a result, the modern companies are demanded to built and rebuild investment project, and to produce new products and material, which can supply the demand to customers and meet the demand of market competition.
Since the modern company investment is more money and higher risk, the project investors should evaluate the economic benefit of the project, which can decrease the investment risk and increase the project investment economy benefit. Consequently, it plays an important role in industry driving effect and developing the regional economy.
In this thesis, the overall introduction of a project called non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is presented with economy benefit theory and project management theory from the viewpoint of investor. The project market demand is analyzed as well as the target market and product price are predicted. Then the project competition and market competition are analyzed from two parts:project market risk and project competitive advantage. In addition, the financial evaluation of non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is analyzed with project evaluation theory. Meanwhile, the project investment recovery period, internal rate of return, financial net present value and sensitivity analysis are taken measurements and calculated. The risk analysis of non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is done. After that, the economy benefit assessment indicator system of non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is constructed in three dimensionalities:financial target, macroeconomic performance target and risk target. Last but not least, the economic benefit of non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is evaluated by fuzzy hierarchy analysis approach. According to the whole evaluation results, the capital investment decision of non-conventional aluminum alloy plate investment project in JIANYU Company is given based on the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.
引文
[1]朱嬿,牛志平.建设项目可持续性概念与后评价研究[J].建筑经济,2006,(01)
[2]易晓剑.浅谈项目经济评价中的风险分析[J].工程设计与建设,2003,(02)
[3]金鑫.年产百万千瓦风力发电设备厂项目经济效益评价[D].吉林大学,2008
[4]蔡冬松.先进制造技术投资项目的经济分析[J]商业研究,2001,(12)
[5]魏鸿汉.年产1.2亿块烧结页岩砖项目经营战略研究及项目可行性分析[D],天津大学.2004
[6]朱纪宪.投资项目经济评价中内部收益率指标的经济含义分析[J].国际石油经济,2005,(02)
[7]陈永道.南京高精齿轮集团船用齿轮箱项目可行性研究[D].南京理工大学,2006
[8]宋华.铁合金项目经济评价和风险分析的研究及软件开发[D].四川大学,2007
[9]吕谦.投资项目可行性研究指南中经济评价的新要求[J].化工技术经济.2003,(05)
[10]Richard J S, et al.Operations management[M].New York:: Mcgraw-Hill.1997:100-102
[11]徐玖平.长期投资决策的风险度及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1999,(02)
[12]孙新果.企业财务预测方法的研究和应用[D].北京工业大学,2001
[13]杨敏.改扩建项目评估中经济效益评价的系统研究[D].西安建筑科技大学,2005
[14]朱先根.论改建和技术改造项目的经济评价[J].中国高新技术企业,2008,(03)
[15]LITTLE L M D, MIRRLEES J A.Project Appraisal and Planning for Developing Countries[M].New York:Basic Book,1974,36
[16]刘志东,徐淼.国外投资项目经济评价理论与方法体系比较研究[J].生产
力研究.2007,(04)
[17]高俊强.投资项目经济评价相关问题探讨[J].湖北职业技术学院学报.2006,(04)
[18]冯彬.投资项目的概念及其分类[J].金融科学,1991,(01)
[19]李建忠.浅谈工业经济效益评价指标体系[J].河南冶金,2001,(02)
[20]邹版纳.浅谈经济效益评价指标的分析利用[J].学术交流,1997,(02)
[21]姜翠萍.项目评价多因素敏感性分析探讨[J].非金属矿,2000,(03)
[22]万晓文.企业投资项目经济效益评价指标的动态运用[J].财会通讯(综合版),2006,(08)
[23]田静.建设投资项目经济效益评价方法研究[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2002,(03)
[24]曹玉贵.投资项目经济评价理论与方法[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社,2006,4-8
[25]何俊德.项目评估—理论与方法[M].武汉：华中理工大学出版社,2000：5-15
[26]刘志东.西方项目经济评价理论与方法体系比较研究[J].科技进步与对策,2006, (3)
[27]张兴平,黄辉.西方国家项目经济评价方法的比较研究[J].现代电力,2002, (3)
[28]姚友胜,郑垂勇,徐尚友.投资项目经济评价方法比较研究[J].经济师,2003, (10)
[29]靳景玉.模糊综合评判与投资效益评价[J].技术经济与管理研究,2000,(3)：37-38
[30]吴琦.试论项目投资的国民经济评价[J].理论月刊,2004, (8)
[31]高俊强.浅谈投资项目经济评价应注意的问题[J].科技创业周刊,2006,(2)
[32]World Bank, Greening Industry:New Roles for Communities, Markets andGovemments.The Word Bank,2000
[33]黄树林,周卓江,高贺会.水利建设项目国民经济评价中影子价格初探[J].河北水利,2004,(1)
[34]王建群.水利建设项目不确定型经济评价方法研究[J].水利经济,1996, (1)
[35]Ambrose Goicoechea, Michael R Krouse,Lcoyal G, Antle.The method of risk and uncertainty treatment for benefit-cost analysis of water resources engineering[J].Water Resources Research.1983,19(2):50-60
[36]孔德军,刘冬松.建设项目中的风险识别方法[J].基建优化,2002,23(4)：17-17,25
[37]王建群.基于经济性和可靠性的多目标风险型决策方法[J].河海大学学报,1995,23(2)
[38]李素芹.论工程项目风险管理.管理之道.2004,(4)
[39]梅传书,钟登华.工程建设项目的风险分析[J].工程建设与设计,2000,(6)：38-40
[40](美)林(Lan.J.).企业全面风险管理.北京：中国金融出版社,2006
[41]陈宝峰,马晓瑾.项目投资财务分析中风险因素辨识的敏感性分析方法及改进.中国农业大学学报.2002,121(7)
[42]《投资项目可行性研究指南》编写组.投资项目可行性研究指南(试用版).北京：中国电力出版社,2001
[43]张识宇,杨乃定.风险投资项目评估失准成因分析及评估机制设计[J].生产力研究,2004, (3)
[2]易晓剑.浅谈项目经济评价中的风险分析[J].工程设计与建设,2003,(02)
[3]金鑫.年产百万千瓦风力发电设备厂项目经济效益评价[D].吉林大学,2008
[4]蔡冬松.先进制造技术投资项目的经济分析[J]商业研究,2001,(12)
[5]魏鸿汉.年产1.2亿块烧结页岩砖项目经营战略研究及项目可行性分析[D],天津大学.2004
[6]朱纪宪.投资项目经济评价中内部收益率指标的经济含义分析[J].国际石油经济,2005,(02)
[7]陈永道.南京高精齿轮集团船用齿轮箱项目可行性研究[D].南京理工大学,2006
[8]宋华.铁合金项目经济评价和风险分析的研究及软件开发[D].四川大学,2007
[9]吕谦.投资项目可行性研究指南中经济评价的新要求[J].化工技术经济.2003,(05)
[10]Richard J S, et al.Operations management[M].New York:: Mcgraw-Hill.1997:100-102
[11]徐玖平.长期投资决策的风险度及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1999,(02)
[12]孙新果.企业财务预测方法的研究和应用[D].北京工业大学,2001
[13]杨敏.改扩建项目评估中经济效益评价的系统研究[D].西安建筑科技大学,2005
[14]朱先根.论改建和技术改造项目的经济评价[J].中国高新技术企业,2008,(03)
[15]LITTLE L M D, MIRRLEES J A.Project Appraisal and Planning for Developing Countries[M].New York:Basic Book,1974,36
[16]刘志东,徐淼.国外投资项目经济评价理论与方法体系比较研究[J].生产
力研究.2007,(04)
[17]高俊强.投资项目经济评价相关问题探讨[J].湖北职业技术学院学报.2006,(04)
[18]冯彬.投资项目的概念及其分类[J].金融科学,1991,(01)
[19]李建忠.浅谈工业经济效益评价指标体系[J].河南冶金,2001,(02)
[20]邹版纳.浅谈经济效益评价指标的分析利用[J].学术交流,1997,(02)
[21]姜翠萍.项目评价多因素敏感性分析探讨[J].非金属矿,2000,(03)
[22]万晓文.企业投资项目经济效益评价指标的动态运用[J].财会通讯(综合版),2006,(08)
[23]田静.建设投资项目经济效益评价方法研究[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2002,(03)
[24]曹玉贵.投资项目经济评价理论与方法[M].郑州：黄河水利出版社,2006,4-8
[25]何俊德.项目评估—理论与方法[M].武汉：华中理工大学出版社,2000：5-15
[26]刘志东.西方项目经济评价理论与方法体系比较研究[J].科技进步与对策,2006, (3)
[27]张兴平,黄辉.西方国家项目经济评价方法的比较研究[J].现代电力,2002, (3)
[28]姚友胜,郑垂勇,徐尚友.投资项目经济评价方法比较研究[J].经济师,2003, (10)
[29]靳景玉.模糊综合评判与投资效益评价[J].技术经济与管理研究,2000,(3)：37-38
[30]吴琦.试论项目投资的国民经济评价[J].理论月刊,2004, (8)
[31]高俊强.浅谈投资项目经济评价应注意的问题[J].科技创业周刊,2006,(2)
[32]World Bank, Greening Industry:New Roles for Communities, Markets andGovemments.The Word Bank,2000
[33]黄树林,周卓江,高贺会.水利建设项目国民经济评价中影子价格初探[J].河北水利,2004,(1)
[34]王建群.水利建设项目不确定型经济评价方法研究[J].水利经济,1996, (1)
[35]Ambrose Goicoechea, Michael R Krouse,Lcoyal G, Antle.The method of risk and uncertainty treatment for benefit-cost analysis of water resources engineering[J].Water Resources Research.1983,19(2):50-60
[36]孔德军,刘冬松.建设项目中的风险识别方法[J].基建优化,2002,23(4)：17-17,25
[37]王建群.基于经济性和可靠性的多目标风险型决策方法[J].河海大学学报,1995,23(2)
[38]李素芹.论工程项目风险管理.管理之道.2004,(4)
[39]梅传书,钟登华.工程建设项目的风险分析[J].工程建设与设计,2000,(6)：38-40
[40](美)林(Lan.J.).企业全面风险管理.北京：中国金融出版社,2006
[41]陈宝峰,马晓瑾.项目投资财务分析中风险因素辨识的敏感性分析方法及改进.中国农业大学学报.2002,121(7)
[42]《投资项目可行性研究指南》编写组.投资项目可行性研究指南(试用版).北京：中国电力出版社,2001
[43]张识宇,杨乃定.风险投资项目评估失准成因分析及评估机制设计[J].生产力研究,2004, (3)