汽车车型创新风险评价
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摘要
随着中国经济的不断发展,人民生活水平的不断提高,对汽车这种奢侈消费品的需求日益增长,这就为中国汽车市场提供了巨大的消费发展空间。但是在中国入世之后受到国外一些大公司的强烈竞争,石油价格不断上升和汽车消费者观念的不断理性化使得中国汽车行业面临空前的激烈竞争,汽车新车型投放市场的风险越来越大。在这种情况下,如何用科学的研究方法来对新车型项目进行风险评价及管理变得越来越重要。
本文以项目风险管理为主线,紧扣汽车车型创新,讲述了汽车车型创新项目从项目开始到项目结束整个过程中会产生哪些风险以及如何控制和评价这些风险。
本文一共分为六章。第一章讲述了汽车车型创新风险管理的国内外发展概况,提出把汽车车型创新引入风险管理中的理论支撑和现实意义。
第二章主要介绍了风险、项目风险以及汽车车型创新项目风险的相关概念,为后面的论述提供了理论基础。
第三章主要介绍了汽车车型创新项目会产生哪些风险以及对这些风险的分类、用哪些方法来识别这些风险以及风险如何控制和评价。第四章介绍风险评价的常用方法以及本文需要用到的方法,并做了详细的介绍。
第五章用实例来验证方法的可行性和可操作性。采用基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价对各风险指标和总体风险进行了定量分析,分别从宏观经济、可持续发展、国家政策、科技发展、入世、资金、市场、管理和技术九个方面进行了详细的说明。最后得出在这个项目中最需要注意的有哪些风险,希望对以后关于此领域的研究会有所帮助。
最后对汽车行业提出了展望,希望中国汽车企业能够以崭新的姿态迎接各方的挑战,在世界汽车市场占领一席之地。
More and more people’s requirement of luxurious consumable automobile rise increasingly with the development of economy and the improving of living standard, which provide the huge consumption space to the Chinese Automobile market. But for those companies the risk of localizing a new model in China is also increasing proportionally because of some facts such as the rising of oil price, the impact of joining WTO, the aggravated automobile market competition, the gradually rationalizing Chinese consumers, and so on. In this condition, it becomes more and more important how to manage and evaluate the of new model localization project by using scientific research method.
The main clue of the paper is the project risk management. The paper focus on the new model of automobile, and tell of which will bring what kind of risk from the beginning of the project to the end and how to control and evaluate this risks.
This paper includes six parts. Chapter one mainly tells us the development background of China and other countries, and bring forward the theory support and practical meanings when bring the new model of automobile in risk management.
Interrelated conceptions such as risk, the project risk of and new model risk are including in chapter two.
Chapter three tells us that which kind of risk will be produced, how to classify and identify those risks, and how to control and evaluate them.
Chapter four introduces the idiomatic methods and those used in this paper in detail.
One case is used to verify the feasibility and maneuverability of methods in chapter six. It shows us the quantitative analysis of those risks index and the overall risk in AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method respectively, It elaborates the Nine indicators including macroeconomic, continuous development, technical, national policy, WTO risk, financial, market, management, and technology development in detail. Finally, a reasonable result was concluded.
In last part, I put forward the expectation to automotive industry. Hope Chinese automotive enterprises can meet parties challenge with a new attitude, and occupied a place in the world auto market.
本文以项目风险管理为主线,紧扣汽车车型创新,讲述了汽车车型创新项目从项目开始到项目结束整个过程中会产生哪些风险以及如何控制和评价这些风险。
本文一共分为六章。第一章讲述了汽车车型创新风险管理的国内外发展概况,提出把汽车车型创新引入风险管理中的理论支撑和现实意义。
第二章主要介绍了风险、项目风险以及汽车车型创新项目风险的相关概念,为后面的论述提供了理论基础。
第三章主要介绍了汽车车型创新项目会产生哪些风险以及对这些风险的分类、用哪些方法来识别这些风险以及风险如何控制和评价。第四章介绍风险评价的常用方法以及本文需要用到的方法,并做了详细的介绍。
第五章用实例来验证方法的可行性和可操作性。采用基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价对各风险指标和总体风险进行了定量分析,分别从宏观经济、可持续发展、国家政策、科技发展、入世、资金、市场、管理和技术九个方面进行了详细的说明。最后得出在这个项目中最需要注意的有哪些风险,希望对以后关于此领域的研究会有所帮助。
最后对汽车行业提出了展望,希望中国汽车企业能够以崭新的姿态迎接各方的挑战,在世界汽车市场占领一席之地。
More and more people’s requirement of luxurious consumable automobile rise increasingly with the development of economy and the improving of living standard, which provide the huge consumption space to the Chinese Automobile market. But for those companies the risk of localizing a new model in China is also increasing proportionally because of some facts such as the rising of oil price, the impact of joining WTO, the aggravated automobile market competition, the gradually rationalizing Chinese consumers, and so on. In this condition, it becomes more and more important how to manage and evaluate the of new model localization project by using scientific research method.
The main clue of the paper is the project risk management. The paper focus on the new model of automobile, and tell of which will bring what kind of risk from the beginning of the project to the end and how to control and evaluate this risks.
This paper includes six parts. Chapter one mainly tells us the development background of China and other countries, and bring forward the theory support and practical meanings when bring the new model of automobile in risk management.
Interrelated conceptions such as risk, the project risk of and new model risk are including in chapter two.
Chapter three tells us that which kind of risk will be produced, how to classify and identify those risks, and how to control and evaluate them.
Chapter four introduces the idiomatic methods and those used in this paper in detail.
One case is used to verify the feasibility and maneuverability of methods in chapter six. It shows us the quantitative analysis of those risks index and the overall risk in AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method respectively, It elaborates the Nine indicators including macroeconomic, continuous development, technical, national policy, WTO risk, financial, market, management, and technology development in detail. Finally, a reasonable result was concluded.
In last part, I put forward the expectation to automotive industry. Hope Chinese automotive enterprises can meet parties challenge with a new attitude, and occupied a place in the world auto market.
引文
[1]于同申主编.发展经济学.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002
[2]朱小蓉.技术创新风险管理及对策探讨.内江:成都理工大学学报(社会科学版) ,2006.12
[3]陈戈止李承宁编.技术经济学.西南财经大学出版社,2006
[4]戴红梅.风险投资中的风险识别与风险管理.武汉:武汉科技学院学报,2006.7
[5]陈雅兰郭伟峰.原始性创新的风险分析与风险管理.学术交流,2005.10
[6]柳亨桦著.向汽车大王福特学习.广东人民出版社,2005.1
[7]刘世恺刘宏编著.汽车百年史话.人民交通出版社,2005.4
[8]邱菀华主编.项目风险管理方法与实践.科学出版社,2003.7
[9]沈建明主编.项目风险管理.机械工业出版社,2004.6
[10] Project Management institute.项目管理知识体系指南(第三版).美国项目管理协会有限公司,2004
[11]吴涛.技术创新风险的几个基本特征及风险管理对策.《科学管理研究》,2000.2
[12]贾再明庄明惠.汽车新产品开发的项目管理.上海:上海汽车工业(集团)总公司技术中心
[13]田少波.技术风险评估模糊层次分析.《科学管理研究》(第三期),2001
[14]叶飞.高科技项目技术创新的风险模糊综合评价探讨[J] .科技进步与对策,1999
[15]中国汽车行业竞争力分析报告( 2005/2006 ).南方原创报告网www.nfcbg.com,2006
[16]保罗.S.罗耶(美).《项目风险管理—一种主动的策略》[M] .北京:机械工业出版社,2005
[17]丁良绪.现代项目管理与汽车产品开发[J] .汽车工业研究,2001.12
[18]高福春.项目管理九大知识体系——风险管理,《中国计算机用户》
[19]王小广.中国汽车何去何从.北京:中国经济出版社,2000.5
[20]罗石钧龚仁燕.层次分析法在项目风险管理中的运用.《华商》下半月刊.北京
[21]搜狐车市分析工作室.2007年全年汽车市场走势分析报告.搜狐汽车.2008.01
[22]崔东树.2008年1-5月汽车市场分析报告.搜狐汽车.2008.06
[23]钱振为主编.21世纪中国汽车产业.北京:北京理工大学出版社,2004.9
[24]徐浩洵主编.打造中国汽车业的未来.北京:经济科学出版社,2004.9
[25]张玉来著.丰田公司企业创新研究:兼论日本汽车产业发展模式.天津:天津人民出版社,2007.1
[26]王卓甫.工程项目风险管理:理论、方法与应用.北京:水利水电出版社,2002
[27]谢科范著.技术创新风险管理.石家庄:河北科学技术出版社,1999
[28]陈宏明著.科技创新与创新能力的培养.海口:海南出版社,2006,6
[29]曹庆贵著.企业风险管理与监控预警技术.北京:煤炭工业出版社,2006
[30]乔梁李春波刘孝红著.中国汽车投资:理论与案例.北京:中央编译出版社,2005.6
[31]刘人伟邓明主编.中国汽车五十年.上海:上海画报出版社《车经》杂志,2003
[32]董静主编.创新制胜:21世纪的企业创新管理.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2007.5
[33] (美)莱克著;李芳龄译.丰田汽车案例—精益制造的14项管理原则.北京:中国财经经济出版社,2004.11
[34] (美)约翰逊(Johnson, A.)著;毕香玲,刘颖译.传奇:改变世界汽车工业的六巨头.北京:中国铁道出版社,2006.4
[35]黄妙华李林邓亚东.电动汽车项目技术创新的行政推进式管理.武汉:《武汉理工大学学报》第24卷第一期,2002.2
[36]胡树华.关于实施国家汽车创新工程的建议.《参政议政》第三期,2008
[37]郑爱珍.论中国汽车工业发展模式的选择.《科技情报开发与经济》第十四卷12期,2004
[38]白浩宇马海英郑振华.企业自主开发新产品的模糊综合评价.西安.《西北农林科技大学学报》第3卷第6期,2003.10
[39]王祖山.新形势下我国汽车行业的风险分析及应对策略探讨.武汉:《当代经理人》21期,2006
[40]胡善龙黄泓徐廷睿吴赟童晓峰张浩波.上海大众开发项目管理模式创新及其深层效应综述.上海:《上海汽车》,2008.5
[41]谢科范罗险峰.技术创新的锁定机制分析.武汉:《武汉汽车工业大学学报》第21卷第5期,1999.10
[42]中华人民共和国可持续发展国家报告.中国环境科学出版社,2002
[43] 1972年联合国人类环境会议报告.增长的极限.罗马俱乐,1972
[44] Goicoechea.A.An approach to risk and uncertainty in benefit-cost analysis of water resources projects[J].Water Resources Research, 1982.
[45] Jafair.A.Project feasibility and Economic risk analysis[J].Management in Engineering ,1988
[46] Prasanta Kumar Dey.Decision support system for risk management:A case study[J].Management Decision,2001,39
[47] Claudio Moraga Chongfu Huang . A Fuzzy Risk Model and its MatrixAlgorithm[J].International Journal of Uncertainty,Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems,2002
[48] Karakaya.F.New product development process:An investigation or success and faclukein high-technology and non-high technology firms,J.Bus.Venture 9-1,1994
[49] Arthur,W.Competing Technologies,Increasing Return and Lock-in by Historical Events.Economical Journal 394,116-131,1989
[50] Wen-Chun Tsai Yu-Ching Lai.A Model for Knowledge-based Product Diffusion process
[51] Kobe G.The 42-Volt Revolution Automotive Industries,1998
[52] Von Hippeal.The Source of Innovation,Oxford University Press,1998
[53] World Commission on Environment and Development[M] .Oxford University Press,1987
[2]朱小蓉.技术创新风险管理及对策探讨.内江:成都理工大学学报(社会科学版) ,2006.12
[3]陈戈止李承宁编.技术经济学.西南财经大学出版社,2006
[4]戴红梅.风险投资中的风险识别与风险管理.武汉:武汉科技学院学报,2006.7
[5]陈雅兰郭伟峰.原始性创新的风险分析与风险管理.学术交流,2005.10
[6]柳亨桦著.向汽车大王福特学习.广东人民出版社,2005.1
[7]刘世恺刘宏编著.汽车百年史话.人民交通出版社,2005.4
[8]邱菀华主编.项目风险管理方法与实践.科学出版社,2003.7
[9]沈建明主编.项目风险管理.机械工业出版社,2004.6
[10] Project Management institute.项目管理知识体系指南(第三版).美国项目管理协会有限公司,2004
[11]吴涛.技术创新风险的几个基本特征及风险管理对策.《科学管理研究》,2000.2
[12]贾再明庄明惠.汽车新产品开发的项目管理.上海:上海汽车工业(集团)总公司技术中心
[13]田少波.技术风险评估模糊层次分析.《科学管理研究》(第三期),2001
[14]叶飞.高科技项目技术创新的风险模糊综合评价探讨[J] .科技进步与对策,1999
[15]中国汽车行业竞争力分析报告( 2005/2006 ).南方原创报告网www.nfcbg.com,2006
[16]保罗.S.罗耶(美).《项目风险管理—一种主动的策略》[M] .北京:机械工业出版社,2005
[17]丁良绪.现代项目管理与汽车产品开发[J] .汽车工业研究,2001.12
[18]高福春.项目管理九大知识体系——风险管理,《中国计算机用户》
[19]王小广.中国汽车何去何从.北京:中国经济出版社,2000.5
[20]罗石钧龚仁燕.层次分析法在项目风险管理中的运用.《华商》下半月刊.北京
[21]搜狐车市分析工作室.2007年全年汽车市场走势分析报告.搜狐汽车.2008.01
[22]崔东树.2008年1-5月汽车市场分析报告.搜狐汽车.2008.06
[23]钱振为主编.21世纪中国汽车产业.北京:北京理工大学出版社,2004.9
[24]徐浩洵主编.打造中国汽车业的未来.北京:经济科学出版社,2004.9
[25]张玉来著.丰田公司企业创新研究:兼论日本汽车产业发展模式.天津:天津人民出版社,2007.1
[26]王卓甫.工程项目风险管理:理论、方法与应用.北京:水利水电出版社,2002
[27]谢科范著.技术创新风险管理.石家庄:河北科学技术出版社,1999
[28]陈宏明著.科技创新与创新能力的培养.海口:海南出版社,2006,6
[29]曹庆贵著.企业风险管理与监控预警技术.北京:煤炭工业出版社,2006
[30]乔梁李春波刘孝红著.中国汽车投资:理论与案例.北京:中央编译出版社,2005.6
[31]刘人伟邓明主编.中国汽车五十年.上海:上海画报出版社《车经》杂志,2003
[32]董静主编.创新制胜:21世纪的企业创新管理.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2007.5
[33] (美)莱克著;李芳龄译.丰田汽车案例—精益制造的14项管理原则.北京:中国财经经济出版社,2004.11
[34] (美)约翰逊(Johnson, A.)著;毕香玲,刘颖译.传奇:改变世界汽车工业的六巨头.北京:中国铁道出版社,2006.4
[35]黄妙华李林邓亚东.电动汽车项目技术创新的行政推进式管理.武汉:《武汉理工大学学报》第24卷第一期,2002.2
[36]胡树华.关于实施国家汽车创新工程的建议.《参政议政》第三期,2008
[37]郑爱珍.论中国汽车工业发展模式的选择.《科技情报开发与经济》第十四卷12期,2004
[38]白浩宇马海英郑振华.企业自主开发新产品的模糊综合评价.西安.《西北农林科技大学学报》第3卷第6期,2003.10
[39]王祖山.新形势下我国汽车行业的风险分析及应对策略探讨.武汉:《当代经理人》21期,2006
[40]胡善龙黄泓徐廷睿吴赟童晓峰张浩波.上海大众开发项目管理模式创新及其深层效应综述.上海:《上海汽车》,2008.5
[41]谢科范罗险峰.技术创新的锁定机制分析.武汉:《武汉汽车工业大学学报》第21卷第5期,1999.10
[42]中华人民共和国可持续发展国家报告.中国环境科学出版社,2002
[43] 1972年联合国人类环境会议报告.增长的极限.罗马俱乐,1972
[44] Goicoechea.A.An approach to risk and uncertainty in benefit-cost analysis of water resources projects[J].Water Resources Research, 1982.
[45] Jafair.A.Project feasibility and Economic risk analysis[J].Management in Engineering ,1988
[46] Prasanta Kumar Dey.Decision support system for risk management:A case study[J].Management Decision,2001,39
[47] Claudio Moraga Chongfu Huang . A Fuzzy Risk Model and its MatrixAlgorithm[J].International Journal of Uncertainty,Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems,2002
[48] Karakaya.F.New product development process:An investigation or success and faclukein high-technology and non-high technology firms,J.Bus.Venture 9-1,1994
[49] Arthur,W.Competing Technologies,Increasing Return and Lock-in by Historical Events.Economical Journal 394,116-131,1989
[50] Wen-Chun Tsai Yu-Ching Lai.A Model for Knowledge-based Product Diffusion process
[51] Kobe G.The 42-Volt Revolution Automotive Industries,1998
[52] Von Hippeal.The Source of Innovation,Oxford University Press,1998
[53] World Commission on Environment and Development[M] .Oxford University Press,1987