人地关系分析的自主体模拟理论框架及其平台开发研究
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摘要
本研究以人地关系理论为出发点,提出了地理学研究中基于自主体模拟(ABS,Agent-Based Simulation)的建模理论框架,并通过计算机编程构建了基于GIS的基于自主体模拟环境(GBASE,Gis-Based Agent Simulation Environment)。基于此理论框架和建模平台,对中国历史人口演化做了应用研究,展开了深入分析与讨论。论文撰写遵循文献回顾—理论框架探索—系统分析—系统构建—系统应用—总结讨论的研究思路,将全文分为六章。
第一章,从对自主体和基于自主体模拟的概念界定出发,讨论了基于自主体模拟在地理计算中的应用,最终提出面向地理学研究的基于自主体模拟平台开发的必要性。基于自主体模拟是以若干自主体模拟客观世界,以自主体间的交互模拟系统动态性和复杂性的建模方法,它作为地理计算中的又一种新兴的建模方法在地理计算中得到了广泛的应用,主要包括:土地利用类型变化模拟、城市演化模拟、房产选购模拟、人群行为模拟、地理事件模拟、游憩行为模拟以及历史地理演化模拟等等。基于自主体模拟的应用之所以能得到不断拓展,离不开其系统开发平台的不断推陈出新,目前使用的普适性平台主要包括Swarm、NetLogo、Repast等等,但这些平台以及其所基于的建模思想都不是针对地理学应用而建立的,因而当被用于地理学研究的基于自主体建模时存在不足,特别是缺乏地理学研究中的多层次性。因此,本研究提出要建立一个面向地理学研究应用的基于自主体建模的理论框架及其软件平台。
第二章,基于对传统人地关系理论的讨论,分析了基于自主体模拟在人地关系定量研究中的作用,提出了基于人地关系理论的基于自主体模拟的理论框架。地理学意义下的基于自主体建模是物理粒子按行为规则在地理环境中进行行为活动的模拟,它反映了人与地理环境交互影响的过程,是人地关系思想的集中体现。基于自主体模拟能有效模拟复杂的人与社会系统的微观交互,并能检验应用于宏观层面的规则的有效性。基于对地理学意义下基于自主体建模的认识,论文提出要建立人地关系意义下基于自主体模型的理论框架必须包含三个关键部件,即:地理环境自动机、个体自主体、组自主体。地理环境自动机是基于元胞自动机对地理环境的建模;个体自主体是对地理环境中具有自主行为决策能力的地理实体的基于自主体建模;而组自主体则是多个个体自主体或组自主体的集合,组自主体和其所包含的个体自主体或组自主体分别属于不同的研究层面,层层嵌套以此反应地理学研究中的多层次性。组自主体是本文提出来的适应具有多层次复杂系统的概念。
第三章,在提出人地关系意义下基于自主体模拟的理论框架之后,研究的目标是将之在计算机编程环境中开发实现,成为具有二次开发能力的结合GIS的基于自主体模拟平台,即本文后来开发的GBASE软件平台。因此,第三章从面向Agent的软件工程思想出发,进行了系统需求分析,分别从控件创建需求、用户脚本编写需求、脚本解析需求以及GBASE平台的非功能性需求进行了剖析。为了实现系统的功能性需求和非功能性需求,本研究最终提出以Delphi和FastScript为系统实现技术手段,将系统分为四大模块,即控件生成模块、用户脚本管理模块、类库模块、脚本解析模块,并将理论框架中提出的三大部件对应到系统实现中的三大核心Agent类,从地理学研究的需求出发,分析设计了他们的属性和方法。
第四章,为了满足GBASE系统用户二次开发的使用需求,论文深入分析FastScript使用的关键技术,解决了动态控件创建问题、用户代码管理问题、FastScript对地理信息数据的访问、操作问题、动态控件与FastScript以及GBASE平台后台类库综合的问题等系统开发的技术难点。最终实现了GBASE系统,这是一个面向地理学应用,能进行基于自主体模拟的二次开发的软件平台。系统的主要功能包括:用户控件创建、用户脚本编辑以及类库使用功能,其中包含了通过简单函数调用实现地理信息数据导入的功能,方便了地理学研究中结合GIS的基于自主体建模的系统开发。
第五章,基于前文提出的人地关系意义下的基于自主体模拟理论框架以及所开发的GBASE平台,我们就中国历史人口地理演变展开了系统应用研究。该应用以地理环境自动机模拟地理环境,以个体自主体模拟人口粒子,将省区定义为组自主体,建立了包含气候、农业、社会影响因素的中国2000年来人口地理演变模型,并在GBASE平台上对该模型进行了编程实现,模拟实现了中国2000年来历史人口地理演变过程,相关的情景模拟分析结果表明:中国各省农业生产潜力的初始差异决定了人口分布的基本格局,是人口分布特征的内在因素,对人口分布演化具有深远的影响;中国人口分布南北格局的转变发生在910A.D.左右,该人口分布格局形成的主要动力在于安史之乱导致的战祸和动荡的社会条件;中国人口东西部分布的显著差异形成于1240-1250A.D.左右,其中,1230-1260A.D.的气候突变对东西部人口分布格局具有关键推动作用;气候变化对2000来历史人口分布的全局演化起了主导驱动作用,并以1230-1260A.D.的气候突变为转折表现为阶段性影响差异;中国历史时期人口重心持续向东南方向转移,且人口重心在纬向上的摆动幅度大于经向在上的变化幅度,即中国历史人口数量在南北方向上的格局变化较东西方向上的格局变化显著。另外,通过该应用,我们也发现了GBASE系统尚存的不足之处,予以了讨论分析。第六章,对论文进行了总结和讨论,展望下一步系统可深化、改进之处。
From the perspective of human-environment interactions, the dissertation proposes a theoretical framework for agent-based simulation (ABS) in Geocomputation and establishes the corresponding software platform named gis-based agent simulation environment (GBASE). Based on the theoretical framework and software platform, the study on spatial evolution of historical population in China is implemented. The dissertation consists of six chapters according to the structure from overview to theoretical framework exploration to system analysis to system building to application and to conclusion.
Chapter 1~(st) is about the overview of agent-based simulation. On the whole, ABS simulates the objective world based on a series of agents, and the interactions between agents carry out the system dynamics and complexity. It has been one of the new modeling techniques in Geocomputation and has been used for simulating Land Use/Cover changes, urban evolution, residential dynamics, crowd flows, fire spread, tourism and historical geography etc. It is recognized that the wide spread of ABS is partly due to the development of ABS software platforms, such as Swarm, NetLogo, Repast and so on. However, there are still some shortages when those platforms are used in geography, because the development purposes of those platforms are not focused on a specific subject. Especially, the idea of hierarchical modeling which is one of the typical characters in geography is wanting in those platforms. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an ABS theoretical framework and platform for Geocomputation.
Chapter 2~(nd) discusses the theory of human-environment interactions, and propounds the theoretical framework of ABS based on human-environment interactions. From the view of geography, ABS can be considered as the simulation on physical particles which act according to their action rules, and is a typical reflection of the interactions between human and environment. ABS can simulate the complexity of human society from the individuals interactions in micro level and also powerful for testing the validity of the regulations applied in macro level. So the dissertation advances the theoretical framework composed of three main components including geo-automata, individual agent and group agent. Geo-automata is a component for modeling of environment. Individual agent is intended to model the entities with the ability of autonomic decision making. And group agent is a presentation of hierarchy modeling. A group agent on higher level contains a set of individual agents or group agents which belong to the lower levels and so forth to simulate the nested hierarchy. Group agent is designed to satisfy the simulation on hierarchical complex systems.
Chapter 3~(rd) aims to make analysis on the software platform of gis-based agent simulation environment derived from the theoretical framework proposed in chapter 2~(nd). By discussing theories of agent-oriented software engineering, the demand analysis of the system is carried out from the view of control construction, script programming and script compiling. To satisfy the system demands, Delphi and FastScript are adopted to develop the platform, and so divide the system into four modules including control constructing module, user script managing module, class library module and script compiling module. And the three main components in theoretical framework are designed into corresponding classes with relevant properties and methods respectively.
Chapter 4~(th) is developed to come through the technical difficulties and introduce the final realization of the platform. By discussing the critical techniques of FastScript, the problems about control construction, script management, operation on GIS data from FastScript and the integration of controls, fastscript and class library are resolved. So GBASE is finally developed. It is a software platform which can used to make further programming in Geocomputation. The main function of the platform includes user control construction, user script programming and class library invoking. Especially, the platform offers a function which can load GIS data handily, so that to simplify the ABS programming in geography.
Chapter 5~(th) is an application on the theoretical framework and GBASE by simulating the spatial evolution of historical population in China. It is a historical population geography model of China by integrating the climatic, agricultural and social influences. In the model, geo-automata is used to simulate environment while individual agents for population, and each province is considered as a group agent. And finally we develop the system on GBASE and make relevant analyses based on scenario hypothesises. The following results are found. 1. It indicates that potential agricultural productivity determined by geographical condition is the essential factor for population distribution in China and works on the initial population distribution as well as the further population development.2.The population in south China surpassed that of north in about 910A.D. mainly droved by AnShi turmoil. 3. The east-west population pattern shaped in about 1240A.D.-1250 A.D. mainly drove by the climate change in 1230-1260A.D.. 4. The impact from climate change seems to be multi-phased, which works weakly before 1230A.D. and becomes much stronger after that. 5. The population center of gravity keeps moving south-east, and the shift in latitude is much more extensive than that in longitude. Finally, based on the application, the shortages of the platform are also discussed.
Chapter 6~(th) is the conclusion and discussion of the dissertation.
第一章,从对自主体和基于自主体模拟的概念界定出发,讨论了基于自主体模拟在地理计算中的应用,最终提出面向地理学研究的基于自主体模拟平台开发的必要性。基于自主体模拟是以若干自主体模拟客观世界,以自主体间的交互模拟系统动态性和复杂性的建模方法,它作为地理计算中的又一种新兴的建模方法在地理计算中得到了广泛的应用,主要包括:土地利用类型变化模拟、城市演化模拟、房产选购模拟、人群行为模拟、地理事件模拟、游憩行为模拟以及历史地理演化模拟等等。基于自主体模拟的应用之所以能得到不断拓展,离不开其系统开发平台的不断推陈出新,目前使用的普适性平台主要包括Swarm、NetLogo、Repast等等,但这些平台以及其所基于的建模思想都不是针对地理学应用而建立的,因而当被用于地理学研究的基于自主体建模时存在不足,特别是缺乏地理学研究中的多层次性。因此,本研究提出要建立一个面向地理学研究应用的基于自主体建模的理论框架及其软件平台。
第二章,基于对传统人地关系理论的讨论,分析了基于自主体模拟在人地关系定量研究中的作用,提出了基于人地关系理论的基于自主体模拟的理论框架。地理学意义下的基于自主体建模是物理粒子按行为规则在地理环境中进行行为活动的模拟,它反映了人与地理环境交互影响的过程,是人地关系思想的集中体现。基于自主体模拟能有效模拟复杂的人与社会系统的微观交互,并能检验应用于宏观层面的规则的有效性。基于对地理学意义下基于自主体建模的认识,论文提出要建立人地关系意义下基于自主体模型的理论框架必须包含三个关键部件,即:地理环境自动机、个体自主体、组自主体。地理环境自动机是基于元胞自动机对地理环境的建模;个体自主体是对地理环境中具有自主行为决策能力的地理实体的基于自主体建模;而组自主体则是多个个体自主体或组自主体的集合,组自主体和其所包含的个体自主体或组自主体分别属于不同的研究层面,层层嵌套以此反应地理学研究中的多层次性。组自主体是本文提出来的适应具有多层次复杂系统的概念。
第三章,在提出人地关系意义下基于自主体模拟的理论框架之后,研究的目标是将之在计算机编程环境中开发实现,成为具有二次开发能力的结合GIS的基于自主体模拟平台,即本文后来开发的GBASE软件平台。因此,第三章从面向Agent的软件工程思想出发,进行了系统需求分析,分别从控件创建需求、用户脚本编写需求、脚本解析需求以及GBASE平台的非功能性需求进行了剖析。为了实现系统的功能性需求和非功能性需求,本研究最终提出以Delphi和FastScript为系统实现技术手段,将系统分为四大模块,即控件生成模块、用户脚本管理模块、类库模块、脚本解析模块,并将理论框架中提出的三大部件对应到系统实现中的三大核心Agent类,从地理学研究的需求出发,分析设计了他们的属性和方法。
第四章,为了满足GBASE系统用户二次开发的使用需求,论文深入分析FastScript使用的关键技术,解决了动态控件创建问题、用户代码管理问题、FastScript对地理信息数据的访问、操作问题、动态控件与FastScript以及GBASE平台后台类库综合的问题等系统开发的技术难点。最终实现了GBASE系统,这是一个面向地理学应用,能进行基于自主体模拟的二次开发的软件平台。系统的主要功能包括:用户控件创建、用户脚本编辑以及类库使用功能,其中包含了通过简单函数调用实现地理信息数据导入的功能,方便了地理学研究中结合GIS的基于自主体建模的系统开发。
第五章,基于前文提出的人地关系意义下的基于自主体模拟理论框架以及所开发的GBASE平台,我们就中国历史人口地理演变展开了系统应用研究。该应用以地理环境自动机模拟地理环境,以个体自主体模拟人口粒子,将省区定义为组自主体,建立了包含气候、农业、社会影响因素的中国2000年来人口地理演变模型,并在GBASE平台上对该模型进行了编程实现,模拟实现了中国2000年来历史人口地理演变过程,相关的情景模拟分析结果表明:中国各省农业生产潜力的初始差异决定了人口分布的基本格局,是人口分布特征的内在因素,对人口分布演化具有深远的影响;中国人口分布南北格局的转变发生在910A.D.左右,该人口分布格局形成的主要动力在于安史之乱导致的战祸和动荡的社会条件;中国人口东西部分布的显著差异形成于1240-1250A.D.左右,其中,1230-1260A.D.的气候突变对东西部人口分布格局具有关键推动作用;气候变化对2000来历史人口分布的全局演化起了主导驱动作用,并以1230-1260A.D.的气候突变为转折表现为阶段性影响差异;中国历史时期人口重心持续向东南方向转移,且人口重心在纬向上的摆动幅度大于经向在上的变化幅度,即中国历史人口数量在南北方向上的格局变化较东西方向上的格局变化显著。另外,通过该应用,我们也发现了GBASE系统尚存的不足之处,予以了讨论分析。第六章,对论文进行了总结和讨论,展望下一步系统可深化、改进之处。
From the perspective of human-environment interactions, the dissertation proposes a theoretical framework for agent-based simulation (ABS) in Geocomputation and establishes the corresponding software platform named gis-based agent simulation environment (GBASE). Based on the theoretical framework and software platform, the study on spatial evolution of historical population in China is implemented. The dissertation consists of six chapters according to the structure from overview to theoretical framework exploration to system analysis to system building to application and to conclusion.
Chapter 1~(st) is about the overview of agent-based simulation. On the whole, ABS simulates the objective world based on a series of agents, and the interactions between agents carry out the system dynamics and complexity. It has been one of the new modeling techniques in Geocomputation and has been used for simulating Land Use/Cover changes, urban evolution, residential dynamics, crowd flows, fire spread, tourism and historical geography etc. It is recognized that the wide spread of ABS is partly due to the development of ABS software platforms, such as Swarm, NetLogo, Repast and so on. However, there are still some shortages when those platforms are used in geography, because the development purposes of those platforms are not focused on a specific subject. Especially, the idea of hierarchical modeling which is one of the typical characters in geography is wanting in those platforms. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an ABS theoretical framework and platform for Geocomputation.
Chapter 2~(nd) discusses the theory of human-environment interactions, and propounds the theoretical framework of ABS based on human-environment interactions. From the view of geography, ABS can be considered as the simulation on physical particles which act according to their action rules, and is a typical reflection of the interactions between human and environment. ABS can simulate the complexity of human society from the individuals interactions in micro level and also powerful for testing the validity of the regulations applied in macro level. So the dissertation advances the theoretical framework composed of three main components including geo-automata, individual agent and group agent. Geo-automata is a component for modeling of environment. Individual agent is intended to model the entities with the ability of autonomic decision making. And group agent is a presentation of hierarchy modeling. A group agent on higher level contains a set of individual agents or group agents which belong to the lower levels and so forth to simulate the nested hierarchy. Group agent is designed to satisfy the simulation on hierarchical complex systems.
Chapter 3~(rd) aims to make analysis on the software platform of gis-based agent simulation environment derived from the theoretical framework proposed in chapter 2~(nd). By discussing theories of agent-oriented software engineering, the demand analysis of the system is carried out from the view of control construction, script programming and script compiling. To satisfy the system demands, Delphi and FastScript are adopted to develop the platform, and so divide the system into four modules including control constructing module, user script managing module, class library module and script compiling module. And the three main components in theoretical framework are designed into corresponding classes with relevant properties and methods respectively.
Chapter 4~(th) is developed to come through the technical difficulties and introduce the final realization of the platform. By discussing the critical techniques of FastScript, the problems about control construction, script management, operation on GIS data from FastScript and the integration of controls, fastscript and class library are resolved. So GBASE is finally developed. It is a software platform which can used to make further programming in Geocomputation. The main function of the platform includes user control construction, user script programming and class library invoking. Especially, the platform offers a function which can load GIS data handily, so that to simplify the ABS programming in geography.
Chapter 5~(th) is an application on the theoretical framework and GBASE by simulating the spatial evolution of historical population in China. It is a historical population geography model of China by integrating the climatic, agricultural and social influences. In the model, geo-automata is used to simulate environment while individual agents for population, and each province is considered as a group agent. And finally we develop the system on GBASE and make relevant analyses based on scenario hypothesises. The following results are found. 1. It indicates that potential agricultural productivity determined by geographical condition is the essential factor for population distribution in China and works on the initial population distribution as well as the further population development.2.The population in south China surpassed that of north in about 910A.D. mainly droved by AnShi turmoil. 3. The east-west population pattern shaped in about 1240A.D.-1250 A.D. mainly drove by the climate change in 1230-1260A.D.. 4. The impact from climate change seems to be multi-phased, which works weakly before 1230A.D. and becomes much stronger after that. 5. The population center of gravity keeps moving south-east, and the shift in latitude is much more extensive than that in longitude. Finally, based on the application, the shortages of the platform are also discussed.
Chapter 6~(th) is the conclusion and discussion of the dissertation.
引文
1 http://www.ccg.leeds.ac.uk/
2 http://ncg.nuim.ie/geocomputation/cfp.html
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