城市轨道交通建设时机理论与方法研究
|
摘要
近年来,我国越来越多的城市开始规划和筹建轨道交通项目。城市轨道交通投资规模巨大且运营费用昂贵,建设过度超前,将不能保证其经济合理性,增加还贷与运营补贴压力。建设滞后的城市轨道交通提供的运输服务错过最佳需求期,不能满足城市发展的需求。因此,研究城市轨道交通建设时机的理论与方法可为城市轨道交通发展规划的制定与实施提供理论依据。
首先,分析城市轨道交通投资的特征与延迟投资期权,运用几何布朗运动来描述城市轨道交通项目投资的不确定性因素,推导出这些因素的建设时机影响函数。第二,运用熵权法与系统科学理论判断建设时机的类型,建立城市公交客流影响因素分析的改进灰色一致关联分析模型,以北京为例进行实证分析。第三,考虑投资的归属公平性、项目实施的运营与网络结构效果、TOD发展模式的实施条件对城市轨道交通项目进行综合评价,以确定城市轨道交通项目的建设时序。第四,运用实物期权方法建立城市轨道交通项目的缓解拥堵投资机会价值分析模型与建设时机选择的随机变量模型。
本论文的主要创新性成果如下:
1.运用几何布朗运动来描述城市轨道交通项目投资的不确定性因素包括客流与建设成本等,刻画这些因素随时间发展的规律性与随机性,推导出这些因素的建设时机影响函数,以揭示推迟投资对于项目运营收入和建设成本预测值的影响,为把握建设时机影响下不确定性因素的发展规律,提供理论依据。
2.从城市交通基础设施供需规模发展的协调性角度,采用熵权法分析城市交通需求,运用系统科学理论分析城市交通基础设施规模与城市交通需求的演化,较客观地评价超前型、同步型或滞后型三种建设时机及其相互转化的形态。提出城市公共交通需求影响因素的改进灰色一致关联分析方法,与已有研究相比,考虑影响因素变化率的差异,更易于识别影响公共交通需求增长和变化的负相关因素,同时,通过定义排序结果的差异度选择时间序列长度,提高了分析结果的可靠性和稳定性。
3.分析轨道交通与道路交通投资公平性的区别,提出轨道交通投资的公平性程度不仅取决于是否能让大多数人受益(使用公平性),还要考虑到城市中低收入群体对于轨道交通票价的承受能力(归属公平性)。从归属公平性、TOD模式的实施条件、运营与网络结构效果三方面构建城市轨道交通项目建设时序的评价指标体系,体现项目运营者和使用者对票价的目标差异,能够较全面、科学地反映轨道交通项目的实施条件。
4.建立基于人口规模的城市轨道交通投资的缓解拥堵机会价值分析模型。与已往的研究相比,该模型考虑票价对于城市轨道交通使用者出行费用的影响,反映了有无轨道交通项目情况下人均拥堵成本的变化,有助于分析人口增长率、项目建成后人口规模、轨道交通使用者出行费用的变化占收入比例、社会折现率与项目建成时间五个因素的变化对于投资决策的影响。
5.建立城市轨道交通项目建设时机选择的实物期权随机变量模型。该模型将投资价值最大化的目标分为三种:经营型价值,经营型与直接引导型价值(以货币形式计量的社会经济效益),经营型与引导型价值(考虑土地规划引导作用的投资前景值),运用建设时机影响函数、蒙特卡洛模拟与OptQuest优化技术分别求解这三种目标下的最优建设时机,反映社会效益对于建设时机的影响,为有针对性地选择城市轨道交通项目的发展策略提供依据。算例分析表明,考虑城市轨道交通项目建设的社会效益(直接引导型价值)与单纯考虑项目的经济效益(经营型价值)的最佳建设时机的计算结果不同。
A growing numbers of cities in China are planning and preparing to construct rail transit projects which need large scale investment and high operation cost in recent years. Premature construction might lead rail transit projects to low utilization rate which is unreasonable from the economic angle and increase pressures of paying loan and operation subsidy. However, rail transit projects miss the best demand period and cannot meet the demand of city development in the case of constructing too late. Therefore, this dissertation studied theory and methodology of construction timing for rail transit projects, which lays a theoretical foundation for rail transit development planning and decision-making.
Firstly, the characteristics of rail transit investment and option to defer investment were analyzed. The geometric brownian motion was used to describe the uncertainty factors of rail transit investment and deduce the influence functions of construction timing. Secondly, the entropy method and system theory were applied to confirm the construction timing type in Beijing. The improved grey uniform analysis (IGUA) was built up to analyze factors affecting transit ridership in Beijing. Thirdly, the construction consequence was evaluated from the aspects of operation and network structure effects, land use situation of transit oriented development (TOD) and ascription equity. Finally, the construction timing theoretic model to ease congestion based on real option was set up. The stochastic variable model based on real option was built up to calculate the optimal construction timing for rail transit projects.
The following are the main innovations of this dissertation:
1. The geometric brownian motion was used to describe uncertainty factors of rail transit investment including passenger flow and construction cost etc., which reflect the regularity and randomness of uncertainty factors with the time. The influence functions of construction timing of the uncertainty factors were deduced to reveal the influence of deferring investment on the forecast values of operation revenue and construction cost, which provide the basis for analyzing the development law of the uncertainty factors affected by the construction timing.
2. The traffic demand was analyzed by the entropy method. The system theory was used to describe evolution of transport infrastructure supply and traffic demand. From the point of coordinated development, the construction timing type including leading, synchronization delay and their mutual transformation forms was evaluated more objectively. Compared with the previous studies, the IGUA considers the differences in change rate and identifies negative correlation between transit ridership and its affecting factors more easily. The difference degree of ranking results was defined in IGUA to determine the length of time series which improves the reliability and stability of analysis results.
3. The difference between rail transit investment equity and road investment equity was analyzed. Use equity and ascription equity were defined and given to evaluate equity of rail transit investment. Use equity refers to the benefits of rail transit projects should be shared by the majority. Ascription equity means ticket price should consider the affordability of the middle and low income people in city. The evaluation indices system of construction sequence of rail transit projects were analyzed from the aspects of operation and network structure effects, land use situation of TOD and ascription equity, which embodies different attitudes of operators and passengers towards ticket price of rail transit projects and reflects implementation conditions more comprehensively and objectively.
4. The invest opportunity value model of rail transit projects aiming to ease congestion based on population scale was set up. Compared with the previous studies, the model reflects the changes in congestion cost and travel cost after construction. The model analyzes the influence of five uncertainty factors on the invest decision of rail transit projects. They are population growth rate, population scale after construction, social discount rate, time after construction and proportion of travel cost change by rail transit to income.
5. The stochastic variable model of construction timing selection of rail transit projects based on real option was built up. The model consists of three maximization goals: operational value, operational value and direct guidable value calculated in the monetary terms, and operational value and guidable value calculated by prospect theory. The influence functions of construction timing, Monte Carlo simulation and OptQuest were used to determine the optimal construction timing which reflects the influence of social benefit on optimal construction timing and provides the basis for selecting the corresponding development strategy of rail transit projects.
首先,分析城市轨道交通投资的特征与延迟投资期权,运用几何布朗运动来描述城市轨道交通项目投资的不确定性因素,推导出这些因素的建设时机影响函数。第二,运用熵权法与系统科学理论判断建设时机的类型,建立城市公交客流影响因素分析的改进灰色一致关联分析模型,以北京为例进行实证分析。第三,考虑投资的归属公平性、项目实施的运营与网络结构效果、TOD发展模式的实施条件对城市轨道交通项目进行综合评价,以确定城市轨道交通项目的建设时序。第四,运用实物期权方法建立城市轨道交通项目的缓解拥堵投资机会价值分析模型与建设时机选择的随机变量模型。
本论文的主要创新性成果如下:
1.运用几何布朗运动来描述城市轨道交通项目投资的不确定性因素包括客流与建设成本等,刻画这些因素随时间发展的规律性与随机性,推导出这些因素的建设时机影响函数,以揭示推迟投资对于项目运营收入和建设成本预测值的影响,为把握建设时机影响下不确定性因素的发展规律,提供理论依据。
2.从城市交通基础设施供需规模发展的协调性角度,采用熵权法分析城市交通需求,运用系统科学理论分析城市交通基础设施规模与城市交通需求的演化,较客观地评价超前型、同步型或滞后型三种建设时机及其相互转化的形态。提出城市公共交通需求影响因素的改进灰色一致关联分析方法,与已有研究相比,考虑影响因素变化率的差异,更易于识别影响公共交通需求增长和变化的负相关因素,同时,通过定义排序结果的差异度选择时间序列长度,提高了分析结果的可靠性和稳定性。
3.分析轨道交通与道路交通投资公平性的区别,提出轨道交通投资的公平性程度不仅取决于是否能让大多数人受益(使用公平性),还要考虑到城市中低收入群体对于轨道交通票价的承受能力(归属公平性)。从归属公平性、TOD模式的实施条件、运营与网络结构效果三方面构建城市轨道交通项目建设时序的评价指标体系,体现项目运营者和使用者对票价的目标差异,能够较全面、科学地反映轨道交通项目的实施条件。
4.建立基于人口规模的城市轨道交通投资的缓解拥堵机会价值分析模型。与已往的研究相比,该模型考虑票价对于城市轨道交通使用者出行费用的影响,反映了有无轨道交通项目情况下人均拥堵成本的变化,有助于分析人口增长率、项目建成后人口规模、轨道交通使用者出行费用的变化占收入比例、社会折现率与项目建成时间五个因素的变化对于投资决策的影响。
5.建立城市轨道交通项目建设时机选择的实物期权随机变量模型。该模型将投资价值最大化的目标分为三种:经营型价值,经营型与直接引导型价值(以货币形式计量的社会经济效益),经营型与引导型价值(考虑土地规划引导作用的投资前景值),运用建设时机影响函数、蒙特卡洛模拟与OptQuest优化技术分别求解这三种目标下的最优建设时机,反映社会效益对于建设时机的影响,为有针对性地选择城市轨道交通项目的发展策略提供依据。算例分析表明,考虑城市轨道交通项目建设的社会效益(直接引导型价值)与单纯考虑项目的经济效益(经营型价值)的最佳建设时机的计算结果不同。
A growing numbers of cities in China are planning and preparing to construct rail transit projects which need large scale investment and high operation cost in recent years. Premature construction might lead rail transit projects to low utilization rate which is unreasonable from the economic angle and increase pressures of paying loan and operation subsidy. However, rail transit projects miss the best demand period and cannot meet the demand of city development in the case of constructing too late. Therefore, this dissertation studied theory and methodology of construction timing for rail transit projects, which lays a theoretical foundation for rail transit development planning and decision-making.
Firstly, the characteristics of rail transit investment and option to defer investment were analyzed. The geometric brownian motion was used to describe the uncertainty factors of rail transit investment and deduce the influence functions of construction timing. Secondly, the entropy method and system theory were applied to confirm the construction timing type in Beijing. The improved grey uniform analysis (IGUA) was built up to analyze factors affecting transit ridership in Beijing. Thirdly, the construction consequence was evaluated from the aspects of operation and network structure effects, land use situation of transit oriented development (TOD) and ascription equity. Finally, the construction timing theoretic model to ease congestion based on real option was set up. The stochastic variable model based on real option was built up to calculate the optimal construction timing for rail transit projects.
The following are the main innovations of this dissertation:
1. The geometric brownian motion was used to describe uncertainty factors of rail transit investment including passenger flow and construction cost etc., which reflect the regularity and randomness of uncertainty factors with the time. The influence functions of construction timing of the uncertainty factors were deduced to reveal the influence of deferring investment on the forecast values of operation revenue and construction cost, which provide the basis for analyzing the development law of the uncertainty factors affected by the construction timing.
2. The traffic demand was analyzed by the entropy method. The system theory was used to describe evolution of transport infrastructure supply and traffic demand. From the point of coordinated development, the construction timing type including leading, synchronization delay and their mutual transformation forms was evaluated more objectively. Compared with the previous studies, the IGUA considers the differences in change rate and identifies negative correlation between transit ridership and its affecting factors more easily. The difference degree of ranking results was defined in IGUA to determine the length of time series which improves the reliability and stability of analysis results.
3. The difference between rail transit investment equity and road investment equity was analyzed. Use equity and ascription equity were defined and given to evaluate equity of rail transit investment. Use equity refers to the benefits of rail transit projects should be shared by the majority. Ascription equity means ticket price should consider the affordability of the middle and low income people in city. The evaluation indices system of construction sequence of rail transit projects were analyzed from the aspects of operation and network structure effects, land use situation of TOD and ascription equity, which embodies different attitudes of operators and passengers towards ticket price of rail transit projects and reflects implementation conditions more comprehensively and objectively.
4. The invest opportunity value model of rail transit projects aiming to ease congestion based on population scale was set up. Compared with the previous studies, the model reflects the changes in congestion cost and travel cost after construction. The model analyzes the influence of five uncertainty factors on the invest decision of rail transit projects. They are population growth rate, population scale after construction, social discount rate, time after construction and proportion of travel cost change by rail transit to income.
5. The stochastic variable model of construction timing selection of rail transit projects based on real option was built up. The model consists of three maximization goals: operational value, operational value and direct guidable value calculated in the monetary terms, and operational value and guidable value calculated by prospect theory. The influence functions of construction timing, Monte Carlo simulation and OptQuest were used to determine the optimal construction timing which reflects the influence of social benefit on optimal construction timing and provides the basis for selecting the corresponding development strategy of rail transit projects.
引文
[1]施仲衡.科学制定城市轨道交通建设规划[J].都市快轨交通.2004.17(2).12-15
[2]朱军.按照科学发展观要求做好城市轨道交通建设规划[J].都市快轨交通.2005.18(1).10-13
[3]高峰.交通基础设施投资与经济增长[M].北京.中国财政经济出版社.2005.3-4
[4]王清印,刘志勇.不确定性信息的概念、类别及其数学表述[J].运筹与管理.2001.10(4).9-15
[5]Nijkamp P.,Rienstra S.A.Private Sector Involvement in Financing and Operating Transport Infrastructure[J].Annals of Regional Science 29.1995.221-235
[6]陆化普,朱军,王建伟等.城市轨道交通规划的研究与实践[M].北京.中国水利水电出版社.21-23
[7]Short J.,Kopp A.Transport Infrastructure:Investment and Planning Policy and Research Aspects[J].Transport Policy.2005.12.360-367
[8]魏连雨,杨春风.城市交通基础设施规模及协调发展[J].西安公路交通大学学报.2001.21(2).66-69
[9]魏连雨,马永锋.城市道路交通系统供需协调发展[J].交通运输工程学报.2004.4(4).58-61
[10]石兆旭 崔莹,任福田,石建军.公路建设与社会经济协调发展评价[J].北京工业大学学报.2005.31(2).165-168
[11]白景涛,刘伟.我国港口建设时机确定方法研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版).2006.34(6).701-704
[12]冯树民,李晓冬.公交客流生成预测的神经网络模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息.2006.6(1).68-70,99
[13]滕绍光.公共交通影响因素的AHP综合评价分析[J].城市公共交通.2005.8.21-24
[14]杨荣英,苗张木,沈成武.BP神经网络主成分分析法在交通需求预测中的应用[J].武汉理工大学学报:交通科学与工程版.2002.26(3).386-388
[15]钟学燕,岳辉.铁路集装箱运量预测与影响因素分析[J].铁道运输与经济.2005.27(9).75-78
[16]Bresson G.,Dargay J et al.The Main Determinants of the Demand for Public Transport:a Comparative Analysis of England and France Using Shrinkage Estimators[J].Transportation Research Part A.2003.37.605-627
[17]Bresson G.,Dargay J et al.Economic and Structural Determinants of the Demand for Public Transport:an Analysis on a Panel of French Urban Areas Using Shrinkage Estimators[J].Transportation Research Part A.2004.38.269-285
[18]苏帆.我国铁路货物运输发展的灰色关联分析[J].数学的实践与认识 2005.35(10).71-75
[19]张庆年,高健智.城市公共交通需求预测模型研究[J].武汉理工大学报.2001.23(8).50-52
[20]CHU X.H.,Steven E.P.Timing Of Major Transportation Investments[R].National Urban Institute Center for Urban Transportation Research University of South Florida 1997.8
[21]Smit H.T.J.Infrastructure Investment as a Real Options Game:The Case of European Airport Expansion[J].Financial Management.2003.32(4).5-35
[22]Law S.M.,Mackay A.E.,Nolan F.J.Rail Infrastructure Management Policy Applying a Real-Options Methodology[J].Public Works Management & Policy.2004.10.145-153
[23]Mills,E.S.,de Ferranti D.M.Market Choices and Optimum City Size[J].American Economic Review.1971.61(2).340-345
[24]Solow R.M.Congestion and the Use of Land in Transportation[J].Swedish Journal of Economics.1972.74.602-618
[25]Solow R.M.Congestion and the Use of Land for Streets[J].Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science.1973.4.602-618
[26]Wheaton W.C.Land Use and Density in Cities with Congestion[J].Journal of Urban Economics.1998.43.258-272
[27]Braid R.M.The Use of Land for Roadways in a Growing Mills-de Ferranti Urban Area[J].Journal of Urban Economics.1995.37.131-160.
[28]Saphores J.D.M.,Boarnet M.G.Uncertainty and the Timing of an Urban Congestion Relief Investment the No-land Case[J].Journal of Urban Economics.2006.59.189-208
[29]Marglin S.A.Approaches to Dynamic Investment planning[M].Amsterdam:North Holland Publishing Company.1963
[30]Georgi H.Cost-Benefit Analysis and Public Investment in Transport:A Survey.London.Butterworths.1973.175-181
[31]Szymanski S.The Optimal Timing of Infrastructure Investment[J].Journal of Transport Economics and Policy.1991.25.247-258.
[32]Chu X.H.,Polzin S.Considering Build-Later as an Alternative in Major Investment Analysis.Transportation Research Board.1998.1623.179-184
[33]Chu X.H.,Steven E.P.Timing Rules for Major Transportation Investment[J].Transportation.2000.7.201-219
[34]Ashley D.J.Uncertainty in the Context of Highway Appraisal[J].Transportation.1980.9(3).249-267
[35]Khisty C.J.Matching Transportation Planning Methods to Cope with Uncertainty.In Selected Proceedings of the Sixth World Conference on Transport Research.Lyon.1992.2141-2147.
[36]Quade,E.Analysis for Public decisions[M].New York.Elsevier.1975
[37]Meyer M.D.,Miller E.J.Urban Transportation Planning:a Decision-Oriented Approach[M].Boston.McGraw-Hill.1984.398-400
[38]孙时金.公路建设项目建设时机的研究[J].公路.1999.8.20-24
[39]刘万明.用需求理论分析高速铁路的建设条件[J].西南交通大学学报.2000.35(4).379-382
[40]孙壮志,朱军,胡思继.交通基础设施建设最佳投资时机研究[J].技术经济.2001.10.59-60
[41]朱沛.民用机场的投资指标体系与投资决策[J].北京联合大学学报.2001.15(2).44-49
[42]刘万明.高速铁路最佳建设时机研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2002.8.29-32
[43]惠山林.国内支线机场的建设时机[J].中国民用航空.2002.24.46-47
[44]甘勇.高速铁路经济效益与建设时机的关系分析[J].价值工程.2004.6.24-26
[45]陈有孝.高速轨道交通方式发展时机的QE-Ⅵ预测模型与实证[硕士学位论文].北京交通大学.2006.43-50
[46]陈传德,张明远.基于风险分析的公路项目投资决策[J].中国公路学报.2006.19(1).99-103
[47]任志福,王幼松.基于多层次模糊综合评价的河口港建港条件研究[J].水道港口.2007.28(3).216-220
[48]潘小华.实物期权在大型交通基础设施投资决策中的应用研究[硕士学位论文].同济大学.2003
[49]冒刘燕,陈一梅.实物期权在水运项目经济评价中应用初探[J].水运工程.2004.11.6-8
[50]苏浪.不确定条件下对城市交通基础设施投资的研究[硕士学位论文].华中科技大学.2004
[51]郝成,程功.基于实物期权方法的铁路预留双线项目评估[J].铁道运输与经济.2005.27(3).16-18
[52]邓立红,王慈光.客运专线项目评价方法的研究[J].铁道运输与经济.2006.28(9).10-11
[53]卢卫.居住城市化:人居科学的视角[M].北京:高等教育出版社.2005.12.64-66
[54]曾军平.利益分配的平等待人——关于公平原则的一个理论注解[J].上海财经大学学报.2006.8(6).56-57
[55]Rawls J.A Theory of Justice Revised Editon[M].1999.Oxford University Press.1-20
[56]Litman T.Evaluating Transportation Equity[J].World Transport Policy & Practice.2002.8(2)42-49
[57]Hayashi Y.,Morisugi H.International Comparison of Background Concept and Methodology of Transportation Project Appraisal[J].Transport Policy.2000.7.73-88
[58]Rothengatter W.Evaluation of Infrastructure Investment in Germany[J].Transport Policy.2000.7.17-25
[59]Quinet E.Evaluation Methodologies of Transportation Projects in France[J].Transport Policy.2000.7.27-34
[60]杨朗.交通基础设施投资与建设的公平性研究[硕士学位论文].清华大学.2006.12-15.18-19
[61]Lee Jr.D.B.Methods for Evaluation of Transportation Projects in USA[J].Transport Policy.2000.7.41-510
[62]Almeida E,Haddad E.,Hewings G.,The Transport-Regional Equity Issue Revisited.REAL 04-T-6,www.uiuc.edu/unit/real.2004.1-37
[63]De Silva,H.,Tatam,C.An Empirical Procedure for Enhancing the Impact of Road.Investments[J].Transport Policy.1996.3(4).201-211
[64]Morisugi H.Evaluation Methodologies of Transportation Projects in Japan[J].Transport Policy.2000.7.35-40
[65]樗木武.社会公共建设系统规划学[M].北京.地震出版社,1998.238-242
[66]Litman T.Evaluating Transportation Equity:Guidance for Incorporation Distributional Impacts.Victoria Transport Policy Institute,2005.http://www.vtpi.org
[67]中国国际工程咨询公司.中国投资项目社会评价——变风险为机遇[M].北京.中国计划出版社.2007.4-7,20-22
[68]张生瑞.公路交通可持续发展系统分析与评价[博士学位论文].长安大学.2001.32-38
[69]吕政义.城市交通公平性评价及对策研究[硕士学位论文]长安大学.2005.16-17
[70]杨朗,石京,陆化普.道路设施项目投资公平性的评价方法[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版).2005.45(9).1162-1165
[71]Shi J.,Yinh X.W.,Zhu Y.Y.Economical And Policy Approach For Improving Equity Of Road Resources Distribution[J].International Conference on Transportation Engineering 2007.1714-1719
[72]王庆云,于强.关于交通公平的理论探讨[J].综合运输.2007.8.5-9
[73]纪嘉伦 李福志.城市轨道交通线网规划方案综合评价指标体系研究[J].系统工程理论与实践.2004.3.129-133
[74]过秀成等.城市轨道线网规划评价决策方法研究[J].城市轨道交通研究.2000.4.24-27
[75]沈晖.基于层次分析.熵.逼近于理想解排序模型的城市轨道交通线网评价体系[硕士学位论文].北京交通大学.2006.
[76]建设部.CJJ/T114-2007.城市公共交通分类标准.北京.中国建筑工业出版社.2007.3-4.16.
[77]牛志平,朱嬿.城市轨道交通项目可持续性概念研究[J].城市轨道交通研究.2006.8.14-18
[78]齐永兴,韩英.实物期权理论在决策者投资决策中的优势[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报(管理科学版).2004.22(4).53-54
[79]Weisbrod,B.A.Collective-Consumption Services Individual-Consumption Goods[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics.1964.78.471-477.
[80]Arrow,K.J.,Fisher,A.C.Environmental Preservation Uncertainty,and Irreversibility[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics.1974.88.312-319
[81]Herry C.Investrnent Decisions under Uncertainty:the Irreversibility Effect[J].American Economic Review.1974.64.1006-1012
[82]Black F.,Scholes M.The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities[J].Journal of Political Economy.1973.81.637-659
[83]Merton R.C.The Theory of Rational Option Pricing[J].Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science.1973.4.141-183.
[84]Myers,S.C.Determinants of Corporate Borrowing[J].Journal of Financial Economics.1977.5.147-176
[85]Trigeorgis L.林谦.实物期权[M].北京.清华大学出版社.58-59
[86]Cox J.C.,Ross S.A.,Rubinstein M.Option Pricing:A Simplified Approach[J].Journal of Financial Economics.1979.229-263
[87]Benaroch M.,Kauffiman R.J.A Case for Using Real Options Pricing Analysis to Evaluate Information Technology Project Investment[J].Journal of Information System Research.1999.10(1).70-86
[88]Demers M.Investment Under Uncertainty,Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time[J].Review of Economic Studies.1991.58.333-350
[89]McDonald R.,Siegel D.The Value of Waiting to Invest[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics.1986.101(4).707-728
[90]Dixit A.K.,Pindyck R.S.朱勇.不确定条件下的投资[M].北京.中国人民大学出版社.2002.59-60,67-76
[91]Martha Amram,Nalin Kulatilaka.张维.实物期权:不确定性环境下的战略投资管理[M].北京.机械工业出版社.2001.33
[92]国务院办公厅关于加强城市快速轨道交通建设管理的通知http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2005-08/14/contenc_22487.htm
[93]单连龙,马春良.轨道交通建设与城市交通的可持续发展[J].综合运输.2002.1.11-14
[94]周立新.中国城市轨道交通发展解析[博士学位论文].同济大学.2004.89-97,105-106
[95]边经卫.大城市空间发展与轨道交通[M].北京.中国建筑工业出版社.2006.69-70
[96]杨励雅.城市交通与土地利用相互关系的基础理论与方法研究[博士学位论文].北京交通大学.2007.36-37,50
[97]郑明远.轨道交通时代的城市开发[M].北京.中国铁道出版社.2006.3.10-16
[98]王春才.城市交通与城市空间演化相互作用机制研究[博士学位论文].北京交通大学.2007.96-98.
[99]孙有望,范文毅,王祥.畅达新世纪的城市交通.′99上海国际城市交通学术研讨会论文选[M].上海.同济大学出版社.1999.237-242
[100]Papacostas C.S.,Prevedourous P.D.Transportation Engineering and Planning[M].New Jersey.Prentice-hall,Inc.1993.251-271
[101]张卫华,赵铭军,指标无量纲化方法对综合评价结果可靠性的影响及其实证分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2005.20(3).33-36
[102]邱蔻华,管理决策与应用熵学.北京.机械工业出版社[M].2002.193-194
[103]李崇明,丁烈云.小城镇资源环境与社会经济协调发展评价模型及应用研究[J].系统工程理论与实践.2004.11.134-139
[104]袁海庆,杨明华,李芳,殷仲海.柔性混凝土配合比均匀试验灰色关联分析[J].武汉理工大学学报.2005.27(2).21-23.
[105]李勇,邵诚,侯晓星.一种新的灰关联分析算法——一致关联度[J].信息与控制.2006.35(4).462-466.
[106]北京市交通委员会.北京第三次交通综合调查[EB].2007.http://www.moc.gov.cn/06beijing/fazhangh/200702/t20070207_177921.html
[107]张辉,熊娟,陈峻.公甲理念与可持续城市交通[J].中国城市交通规划2006年年会暨第22次学术研讨会.117-123
[108]王怀相.公平运输的定义与评价思路[J].综合运输.2006.5.10-11[109]刘迁.辩证分析城市快速轨道交通TOD功能.都市快轨交通.2004.17.2.22-26[110]厉以宁.经济学的伦理问题.北京.三联出版社.1996.2-4
[111]张传鸿.轨道交通车站无障碍设施的规划与设计.地下工程与隧道[J].2004.4.21-25
[112]李晓燕,董治.西安市城市地铁建设项目公众参与研究[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版).2006.16(5).137-142
[113]冈田宏.东京城市轨道交通系统的规划、建设和管理[J].城市轨道交通研究.2003.3.1-7
[114]周伟 Joseph S.Szyliowicz.中国城市可持续交通发展战略与政策研究[M].北京.人民交通出版社.2005.12-13
[115]Kenyon,S.,Lyons,G.,Rafferty,J.Transport and Social Exclusion:Investigating the Possibility of Promoting Inclusion Through Virtual Mobility.Journal of Transportation Geography[J].2002.10.207-219
[116]Litman T.Social Inclusion as a Transport Planning Issue in Canada.Transport and Social Exclusion G7 Comparison Seminar.2003
[117]Revis,J.S.Transportation Requirements for the Handicapped,Elderly,and Economically Disadvantaged[J].National Cooperative Highway Research Program Synthesis 39.Transportation Research Board.1976
[118]德国技术合作公司(GTZ).钱振东,陆振波.可持续发展的交通-发展中城市政策制定者资料手册[M].北京.人民交通出版社.2005.12-15
[119]White P.R.Impacts of the Cairo Metro[C].The sixth international conference on competition and ownership in land passenger transport.Cape Town.1999
[120]世界银行.畅通的城市:世界银行城市交通战略评估报告[M].北京.中国财政经济出版社.2006.19-30
[121]马健,艾阳.城市轨道交通的投资价值分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2003.6(4).1-6
[122]Carruthers R.,Malise D,Saurkar A.Affordability of Public Transport in Developing Countries.The World Bank.Washington,DC.2005.www.worldbank.org.
[123]Qureshi I.A.,Lu H.P.,Ye S.Urban transportation and equity:A case study of Beijing and Karachi[J].Transportation Research Part A.2008.42.125-139
[124]Gakenheimer R.城市交通规划的作用[C].北京.中国城市交通发展战略.北京.中国建筑工业出版社.1997.358
[125]毛保华等.城市轨道交通[M].北京.科学出版社.2001.94-99,251-253
[126]Litman T.Rail Transit In America a Comprehensive Evaluation of Benefits[R].Victoria Transport Policy Institute.2004.10.1-14
[127]Texas Transportation Institute.Urban mobility study[R].2002.Texas.http://mobility.tamu.edu/ums/study/issues_measures/congestion_cost.stm
[128]Saphores J.D.M.Population Uncertainty and the Timing of an Urban Transportation Infrastructure Investment[C].Transportation Research Board 86~(th)Annual Meeting.Washington,DC.2007
[129]Weisbrod,G.,D.Vary and G.Treyz.2001.Economic Implications of Congestion,National highway Cooperative Research Program Peport Number 463.Washington,D.C.National Academy Press.
[130]穆昕,王浣尘.基于实物期权的项目投资管理柔性分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2004.8.91-97
[131]Allport R.大运量快速客运交通的投资[A].建设部城市交通工程技术中心.中国城市交通发展战略[C].北京.中国建筑工业出版社.1997.189-233
[132]梁青槐.城市轨道交通客流预测问题分析及建议[J].都市快轨交通.2005.18(1).37-41
[133]龚文平,刘卡丁.深圳城市轨道交通建设的效益分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2003.5.62-66
[134]陈世勋,陶小马.上海城市轨道交通体系社会经济效益估算分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2004.1.1-5
[135]韩春素.城市轨道交通项目的经济和社会效益量化分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2005.6.58-62
[136]国家计划委员会,建设部.建设项目经济评价方法与参数[M].北京.中国计划出版社.1998
[137]周翊民.城市轨道交通发展趋势及其动因分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2001.2.1-4
[138]罗承忠.模糊集引论[M].北京.北京师范大学出版社.1989
[139]孟科等.风险偏好的区间值灰色模糊综合评判及其应用[J].火力与指挥控制.2007.32(4).109-111
[140]Glover F.Heuristics for Integer Programming Using Surrogate Constraints[J].Decision Sciences.1977.8.156-166
[141]Glover F.,Laguna M.Tabu Search[M].Springer.1997.18-19
[142]Glover F.A Template for Scatter Search and Path Relinking[A].In:Hao J K,et al.Artificial evolution.Lecture Notes in Compute Science 1363.Springer.1998.13-54
[143]Edgar T.,Himmelblau D.,Lasdon L.张卫东等译.化工过程优化[M].北京.化学工业出版社.2005.272-273
[144]黄淳,李彬.不确定性经济学研究综述[J].经济学动态.2004.1.63-68
[145]Tversky A.,Kahneman D.Advances in Prospect Theory:Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.1992.24(1).297-323
[2]朱军.按照科学发展观要求做好城市轨道交通建设规划[J].都市快轨交通.2005.18(1).10-13
[3]高峰.交通基础设施投资与经济增长[M].北京.中国财政经济出版社.2005.3-4
[4]王清印,刘志勇.不确定性信息的概念、类别及其数学表述[J].运筹与管理.2001.10(4).9-15
[5]Nijkamp P.,Rienstra S.A.Private Sector Involvement in Financing and Operating Transport Infrastructure[J].Annals of Regional Science 29.1995.221-235
[6]陆化普,朱军,王建伟等.城市轨道交通规划的研究与实践[M].北京.中国水利水电出版社.21-23
[7]Short J.,Kopp A.Transport Infrastructure:Investment and Planning Policy and Research Aspects[J].Transport Policy.2005.12.360-367
[8]魏连雨,杨春风.城市交通基础设施规模及协调发展[J].西安公路交通大学学报.2001.21(2).66-69
[9]魏连雨,马永锋.城市道路交通系统供需协调发展[J].交通运输工程学报.2004.4(4).58-61
[10]石兆旭 崔莹,任福田,石建军.公路建设与社会经济协调发展评价[J].北京工业大学学报.2005.31(2).165-168
[11]白景涛,刘伟.我国港口建设时机确定方法研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版).2006.34(6).701-704
[12]冯树民,李晓冬.公交客流生成预测的神经网络模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息.2006.6(1).68-70,99
[13]滕绍光.公共交通影响因素的AHP综合评价分析[J].城市公共交通.2005.8.21-24
[14]杨荣英,苗张木,沈成武.BP神经网络主成分分析法在交通需求预测中的应用[J].武汉理工大学学报:交通科学与工程版.2002.26(3).386-388
[15]钟学燕,岳辉.铁路集装箱运量预测与影响因素分析[J].铁道运输与经济.2005.27(9).75-78
[16]Bresson G.,Dargay J et al.The Main Determinants of the Demand for Public Transport:a Comparative Analysis of England and France Using Shrinkage Estimators[J].Transportation Research Part A.2003.37.605-627
[17]Bresson G.,Dargay J et al.Economic and Structural Determinants of the Demand for Public Transport:an Analysis on a Panel of French Urban Areas Using Shrinkage Estimators[J].Transportation Research Part A.2004.38.269-285
[18]苏帆.我国铁路货物运输发展的灰色关联分析[J].数学的实践与认识 2005.35(10).71-75
[19]张庆年,高健智.城市公共交通需求预测模型研究[J].武汉理工大学报.2001.23(8).50-52
[20]CHU X.H.,Steven E.P.Timing Of Major Transportation Investments[R].National Urban Institute Center for Urban Transportation Research University of South Florida 1997.8
[21]Smit H.T.J.Infrastructure Investment as a Real Options Game:The Case of European Airport Expansion[J].Financial Management.2003.32(4).5-35
[22]Law S.M.,Mackay A.E.,Nolan F.J.Rail Infrastructure Management Policy Applying a Real-Options Methodology[J].Public Works Management & Policy.2004.10.145-153
[23]Mills,E.S.,de Ferranti D.M.Market Choices and Optimum City Size[J].American Economic Review.1971.61(2).340-345
[24]Solow R.M.Congestion and the Use of Land in Transportation[J].Swedish Journal of Economics.1972.74.602-618
[25]Solow R.M.Congestion and the Use of Land for Streets[J].Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science.1973.4.602-618
[26]Wheaton W.C.Land Use and Density in Cities with Congestion[J].Journal of Urban Economics.1998.43.258-272
[27]Braid R.M.The Use of Land for Roadways in a Growing Mills-de Ferranti Urban Area[J].Journal of Urban Economics.1995.37.131-160.
[28]Saphores J.D.M.,Boarnet M.G.Uncertainty and the Timing of an Urban Congestion Relief Investment the No-land Case[J].Journal of Urban Economics.2006.59.189-208
[29]Marglin S.A.Approaches to Dynamic Investment planning[M].Amsterdam:North Holland Publishing Company.1963
[30]Georgi H.Cost-Benefit Analysis and Public Investment in Transport:A Survey.London.Butterworths.1973.175-181
[31]Szymanski S.The Optimal Timing of Infrastructure Investment[J].Journal of Transport Economics and Policy.1991.25.247-258.
[32]Chu X.H.,Polzin S.Considering Build-Later as an Alternative in Major Investment Analysis.Transportation Research Board.1998.1623.179-184
[33]Chu X.H.,Steven E.P.Timing Rules for Major Transportation Investment[J].Transportation.2000.7.201-219
[34]Ashley D.J.Uncertainty in the Context of Highway Appraisal[J].Transportation.1980.9(3).249-267
[35]Khisty C.J.Matching Transportation Planning Methods to Cope with Uncertainty.In Selected Proceedings of the Sixth World Conference on Transport Research.Lyon.1992.2141-2147.
[36]Quade,E.Analysis for Public decisions[M].New York.Elsevier.1975
[37]Meyer M.D.,Miller E.J.Urban Transportation Planning:a Decision-Oriented Approach[M].Boston.McGraw-Hill.1984.398-400
[38]孙时金.公路建设项目建设时机的研究[J].公路.1999.8.20-24
[39]刘万明.用需求理论分析高速铁路的建设条件[J].西南交通大学学报.2000.35(4).379-382
[40]孙壮志,朱军,胡思继.交通基础设施建设最佳投资时机研究[J].技术经济.2001.10.59-60
[41]朱沛.民用机场的投资指标体系与投资决策[J].北京联合大学学报.2001.15(2).44-49
[42]刘万明.高速铁路最佳建设时机研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2002.8.29-32
[43]惠山林.国内支线机场的建设时机[J].中国民用航空.2002.24.46-47
[44]甘勇.高速铁路经济效益与建设时机的关系分析[J].价值工程.2004.6.24-26
[45]陈有孝.高速轨道交通方式发展时机的QE-Ⅵ预测模型与实证[硕士学位论文].北京交通大学.2006.43-50
[46]陈传德,张明远.基于风险分析的公路项目投资决策[J].中国公路学报.2006.19(1).99-103
[47]任志福,王幼松.基于多层次模糊综合评价的河口港建港条件研究[J].水道港口.2007.28(3).216-220
[48]潘小华.实物期权在大型交通基础设施投资决策中的应用研究[硕士学位论文].同济大学.2003
[49]冒刘燕,陈一梅.实物期权在水运项目经济评价中应用初探[J].水运工程.2004.11.6-8
[50]苏浪.不确定条件下对城市交通基础设施投资的研究[硕士学位论文].华中科技大学.2004
[51]郝成,程功.基于实物期权方法的铁路预留双线项目评估[J].铁道运输与经济.2005.27(3).16-18
[52]邓立红,王慈光.客运专线项目评价方法的研究[J].铁道运输与经济.2006.28(9).10-11
[53]卢卫.居住城市化:人居科学的视角[M].北京:高等教育出版社.2005.12.64-66
[54]曾军平.利益分配的平等待人——关于公平原则的一个理论注解[J].上海财经大学学报.2006.8(6).56-57
[55]Rawls J.A Theory of Justice Revised Editon[M].1999.Oxford University Press.1-20
[56]Litman T.Evaluating Transportation Equity[J].World Transport Policy & Practice.2002.8(2)42-49
[57]Hayashi Y.,Morisugi H.International Comparison of Background Concept and Methodology of Transportation Project Appraisal[J].Transport Policy.2000.7.73-88
[58]Rothengatter W.Evaluation of Infrastructure Investment in Germany[J].Transport Policy.2000.7.17-25
[59]Quinet E.Evaluation Methodologies of Transportation Projects in France[J].Transport Policy.2000.7.27-34
[60]杨朗.交通基础设施投资与建设的公平性研究[硕士学位论文].清华大学.2006.12-15.18-19
[61]Lee Jr.D.B.Methods for Evaluation of Transportation Projects in USA[J].Transport Policy.2000.7.41-510
[62]Almeida E,Haddad E.,Hewings G.,The Transport-Regional Equity Issue Revisited.REAL 04-T-6,www.uiuc.edu/unit/real.2004.1-37
[63]De Silva,H.,Tatam,C.An Empirical Procedure for Enhancing the Impact of Road.Investments[J].Transport Policy.1996.3(4).201-211
[64]Morisugi H.Evaluation Methodologies of Transportation Projects in Japan[J].Transport Policy.2000.7.35-40
[65]樗木武.社会公共建设系统规划学[M].北京.地震出版社,1998.238-242
[66]Litman T.Evaluating Transportation Equity:Guidance for Incorporation Distributional Impacts.Victoria Transport Policy Institute,2005.http://www.vtpi.org
[67]中国国际工程咨询公司.中国投资项目社会评价——变风险为机遇[M].北京.中国计划出版社.2007.4-7,20-22
[68]张生瑞.公路交通可持续发展系统分析与评价[博士学位论文].长安大学.2001.32-38
[69]吕政义.城市交通公平性评价及对策研究[硕士学位论文]长安大学.2005.16-17
[70]杨朗,石京,陆化普.道路设施项目投资公平性的评价方法[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版).2005.45(9).1162-1165
[71]Shi J.,Yinh X.W.,Zhu Y.Y.Economical And Policy Approach For Improving Equity Of Road Resources Distribution[J].International Conference on Transportation Engineering 2007.1714-1719
[72]王庆云,于强.关于交通公平的理论探讨[J].综合运输.2007.8.5-9
[73]纪嘉伦 李福志.城市轨道交通线网规划方案综合评价指标体系研究[J].系统工程理论与实践.2004.3.129-133
[74]过秀成等.城市轨道线网规划评价决策方法研究[J].城市轨道交通研究.2000.4.24-27
[75]沈晖.基于层次分析.熵.逼近于理想解排序模型的城市轨道交通线网评价体系[硕士学位论文].北京交通大学.2006.
[76]建设部.CJJ/T114-2007.城市公共交通分类标准.北京.中国建筑工业出版社.2007.3-4.16.
[77]牛志平,朱嬿.城市轨道交通项目可持续性概念研究[J].城市轨道交通研究.2006.8.14-18
[78]齐永兴,韩英.实物期权理论在决策者投资决策中的优势[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报(管理科学版).2004.22(4).53-54
[79]Weisbrod,B.A.Collective-Consumption Services Individual-Consumption Goods[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics.1964.78.471-477.
[80]Arrow,K.J.,Fisher,A.C.Environmental Preservation Uncertainty,and Irreversibility[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics.1974.88.312-319
[81]Herry C.Investrnent Decisions under Uncertainty:the Irreversibility Effect[J].American Economic Review.1974.64.1006-1012
[82]Black F.,Scholes M.The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities[J].Journal of Political Economy.1973.81.637-659
[83]Merton R.C.The Theory of Rational Option Pricing[J].Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science.1973.4.141-183.
[84]Myers,S.C.Determinants of Corporate Borrowing[J].Journal of Financial Economics.1977.5.147-176
[85]Trigeorgis L.林谦.实物期权[M].北京.清华大学出版社.58-59
[86]Cox J.C.,Ross S.A.,Rubinstein M.Option Pricing:A Simplified Approach[J].Journal of Financial Economics.1979.229-263
[87]Benaroch M.,Kauffiman R.J.A Case for Using Real Options Pricing Analysis to Evaluate Information Technology Project Investment[J].Journal of Information System Research.1999.10(1).70-86
[88]Demers M.Investment Under Uncertainty,Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time[J].Review of Economic Studies.1991.58.333-350
[89]McDonald R.,Siegel D.The Value of Waiting to Invest[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics.1986.101(4).707-728
[90]Dixit A.K.,Pindyck R.S.朱勇.不确定条件下的投资[M].北京.中国人民大学出版社.2002.59-60,67-76
[91]Martha Amram,Nalin Kulatilaka.张维.实物期权:不确定性环境下的战略投资管理[M].北京.机械工业出版社.2001.33
[92]国务院办公厅关于加强城市快速轨道交通建设管理的通知http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2005-08/14/contenc_22487.htm
[93]单连龙,马春良.轨道交通建设与城市交通的可持续发展[J].综合运输.2002.1.11-14
[94]周立新.中国城市轨道交通发展解析[博士学位论文].同济大学.2004.89-97,105-106
[95]边经卫.大城市空间发展与轨道交通[M].北京.中国建筑工业出版社.2006.69-70
[96]杨励雅.城市交通与土地利用相互关系的基础理论与方法研究[博士学位论文].北京交通大学.2007.36-37,50
[97]郑明远.轨道交通时代的城市开发[M].北京.中国铁道出版社.2006.3.10-16
[98]王春才.城市交通与城市空间演化相互作用机制研究[博士学位论文].北京交通大学.2007.96-98.
[99]孙有望,范文毅,王祥.畅达新世纪的城市交通.′99上海国际城市交通学术研讨会论文选[M].上海.同济大学出版社.1999.237-242
[100]Papacostas C.S.,Prevedourous P.D.Transportation Engineering and Planning[M].New Jersey.Prentice-hall,Inc.1993.251-271
[101]张卫华,赵铭军,指标无量纲化方法对综合评价结果可靠性的影响及其实证分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2005.20(3).33-36
[102]邱蔻华,管理决策与应用熵学.北京.机械工业出版社[M].2002.193-194
[103]李崇明,丁烈云.小城镇资源环境与社会经济协调发展评价模型及应用研究[J].系统工程理论与实践.2004.11.134-139
[104]袁海庆,杨明华,李芳,殷仲海.柔性混凝土配合比均匀试验灰色关联分析[J].武汉理工大学学报.2005.27(2).21-23.
[105]李勇,邵诚,侯晓星.一种新的灰关联分析算法——一致关联度[J].信息与控制.2006.35(4).462-466.
[106]北京市交通委员会.北京第三次交通综合调查[EB].2007.http://www.moc.gov.cn/06beijing/fazhangh/200702/t20070207_177921.html
[107]张辉,熊娟,陈峻.公甲理念与可持续城市交通[J].中国城市交通规划2006年年会暨第22次学术研讨会.117-123
[108]王怀相.公平运输的定义与评价思路[J].综合运输.2006.5.10-11[109]刘迁.辩证分析城市快速轨道交通TOD功能.都市快轨交通.2004.17.2.22-26[110]厉以宁.经济学的伦理问题.北京.三联出版社.1996.2-4
[111]张传鸿.轨道交通车站无障碍设施的规划与设计.地下工程与隧道[J].2004.4.21-25
[112]李晓燕,董治.西安市城市地铁建设项目公众参与研究[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版).2006.16(5).137-142
[113]冈田宏.东京城市轨道交通系统的规划、建设和管理[J].城市轨道交通研究.2003.3.1-7
[114]周伟 Joseph S.Szyliowicz.中国城市可持续交通发展战略与政策研究[M].北京.人民交通出版社.2005.12-13
[115]Kenyon,S.,Lyons,G.,Rafferty,J.Transport and Social Exclusion:Investigating the Possibility of Promoting Inclusion Through Virtual Mobility.Journal of Transportation Geography[J].2002.10.207-219
[116]Litman T.Social Inclusion as a Transport Planning Issue in Canada.Transport and Social Exclusion G7 Comparison Seminar.2003
[117]Revis,J.S.Transportation Requirements for the Handicapped,Elderly,and Economically Disadvantaged[J].National Cooperative Highway Research Program Synthesis 39.Transportation Research Board.1976
[118]德国技术合作公司(GTZ).钱振东,陆振波.可持续发展的交通-发展中城市政策制定者资料手册[M].北京.人民交通出版社.2005.12-15
[119]White P.R.Impacts of the Cairo Metro[C].The sixth international conference on competition and ownership in land passenger transport.Cape Town.1999
[120]世界银行.畅通的城市:世界银行城市交通战略评估报告[M].北京.中国财政经济出版社.2006.19-30
[121]马健,艾阳.城市轨道交通的投资价值分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2003.6(4).1-6
[122]Carruthers R.,Malise D,Saurkar A.Affordability of Public Transport in Developing Countries.The World Bank.Washington,DC.2005.www.worldbank.org.
[123]Qureshi I.A.,Lu H.P.,Ye S.Urban transportation and equity:A case study of Beijing and Karachi[J].Transportation Research Part A.2008.42.125-139
[124]Gakenheimer R.城市交通规划的作用[C].北京.中国城市交通发展战略.北京.中国建筑工业出版社.1997.358
[125]毛保华等.城市轨道交通[M].北京.科学出版社.2001.94-99,251-253
[126]Litman T.Rail Transit In America a Comprehensive Evaluation of Benefits[R].Victoria Transport Policy Institute.2004.10.1-14
[127]Texas Transportation Institute.Urban mobility study[R].2002.Texas.http://mobility.tamu.edu/ums/study/issues_measures/congestion_cost.stm
[128]Saphores J.D.M.Population Uncertainty and the Timing of an Urban Transportation Infrastructure Investment[C].Transportation Research Board 86~(th)Annual Meeting.Washington,DC.2007
[129]Weisbrod,G.,D.Vary and G.Treyz.2001.Economic Implications of Congestion,National highway Cooperative Research Program Peport Number 463.Washington,D.C.National Academy Press.
[130]穆昕,王浣尘.基于实物期权的项目投资管理柔性分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2004.8.91-97
[131]Allport R.大运量快速客运交通的投资[A].建设部城市交通工程技术中心.中国城市交通发展战略[C].北京.中国建筑工业出版社.1997.189-233
[132]梁青槐.城市轨道交通客流预测问题分析及建议[J].都市快轨交通.2005.18(1).37-41
[133]龚文平,刘卡丁.深圳城市轨道交通建设的效益分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2003.5.62-66
[134]陈世勋,陶小马.上海城市轨道交通体系社会经济效益估算分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2004.1.1-5
[135]韩春素.城市轨道交通项目的经济和社会效益量化分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2005.6.58-62
[136]国家计划委员会,建设部.建设项目经济评价方法与参数[M].北京.中国计划出版社.1998
[137]周翊民.城市轨道交通发展趋势及其动因分析[J].城市轨道交通研究.2001.2.1-4
[138]罗承忠.模糊集引论[M].北京.北京师范大学出版社.1989
[139]孟科等.风险偏好的区间值灰色模糊综合评判及其应用[J].火力与指挥控制.2007.32(4).109-111
[140]Glover F.Heuristics for Integer Programming Using Surrogate Constraints[J].Decision Sciences.1977.8.156-166
[141]Glover F.,Laguna M.Tabu Search[M].Springer.1997.18-19
[142]Glover F.A Template for Scatter Search and Path Relinking[A].In:Hao J K,et al.Artificial evolution.Lecture Notes in Compute Science 1363.Springer.1998.13-54
[143]Edgar T.,Himmelblau D.,Lasdon L.张卫东等译.化工过程优化[M].北京.化学工业出版社.2005.272-273
[144]黄淳,李彬.不确定性经济学研究综述[J].经济学动态.2004.1.63-68
[145]Tversky A.,Kahneman D.Advances in Prospect Theory:Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.1992.24(1).297-323